Luận văn thạc sĩ Quản lý xây dựng: Phân tích đánh giá rủi ro trong quá trình lập và quyết định đầu tư dự án xây dựng

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tӕ rӫi ro

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4 ÈSGөQJFKRF{QJWUuQKWKӵc tӃ, cө thӇ OjGӵ iQ&KXQJFѭWҥL%uQK'ѭѫQJ

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IV &È1%Ӝ+ѬӞ1*'Ү1 : TS ĈLQK&{QJ7ӏQK

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7Ï07ҲT LUҰ19Ă1

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ABSTRACT

Thesis refers to the identification of risk factors, cause-consequence relationship between, the possibility of risk factors occurring during the project implementation Besides, we use the Bayesian Network model (BBN) to quantify, analyze and evaluate Then propose coping measures to overcome and limit the possible risk factors and evaluate the financial efficiency for a specific apartment project in Binh Duong

The main database of the thesis is risk assessment for project implementation in the inception and preparation of project implementation After having a risk response plan, the financial efficiency of the project will be conducted for the Investor to decide

on investment

The actual data source to assess risk or financial efficiency for the project is collected from Contractors, Consultants, Investors, Credit Institutions from neighboring projects in Binh Duong and the surrounding provinces of the city Ho Chi Minh

LӠ,&$0Ĉ2$1

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vi hiӇu biӃt cӫDW{L

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&iFNKiLQLӋm vӅ rӫi ro 8

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2.3 &iFQJKLrQFӭXWUѭӟFÿk\ 14

1JKLrQFӭu vӅ rӫi ro trong ÿҫXWѭGӵ iQ[k\Gӵng 14

1JKLrQFӭu vӅ SKkQWtFKKLӋu quҧ dӵ iQEҩWÿӝng sҧn 18

1JKLrQFӭu vӅ hӧSÿӗQJYjFXQJFҩp dӏch vө 20

1JKLrQFӭu vӅ hӋ thӕng quҧQOêFKҩWOѭӧng 22

1JKLrQFӭu vӅ rӫLURFKLSKtWjLFKtQK 23

&iFQJKLrQFӭu vӅ ÿROѭӡQJÿiQKJLiUӫi ro dӵ iQ[k\Gӵng 27

3.4.3 Tӹ sӕ lӧi nhuұQWUrQYӕn chӫ sӣ hӳu (ROE) 35

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4.1.2 1KyPFiF\Ӄu tӕ rӫLUROLrQTXDQÿӃn tiӃQÿӝ 49 4.1.3 1KyPFiF\Ӄu tӕ rӫLUROLrQTXDQÿӃn chҩWOѭӧng 51 4.1.4 1KyPFiF\Ӄu tӕ rӫLUROLrQTXDQÿӃn thӏ WUѭӡng 53 4.1.5 1KyPFiF\Ӄu tӕ rӫLUROLrQTXDQÿӃn FKLSKtWjLFKtQK 55

4.2 ThiӃt lұp khҧRViW VѫEӝ FiF\Ӄu tӕ rӫLURNKLÿҫXWѭGӵ iQ 58

4.2.1 TiӃQKjQKNLӇPÿӏQKWKDQJÿRYӟLFiFELӃn: 60 4.2.1.1 1KyPFiF\Ӄu tӕ rӫLUROLrQTXDQÿӃQSKiSOê 61 4.2.1.2 1KyPFiF\Ӄu tӕ rӫLUROLrQTXDQÿӃn tiӃQÿӝ 61 4.2.1.3 1KyPFiF\Ӄu tӕ rӫLUROLrQTXDQÿӃn chҩWOѭӧng 62 4.2.1.4 1KyPFiF\Ӄu tӕ rӫLUROLrQTXDQÿӃn thӏ WUѭӡng 62 4.2.1.5 1KyPFiF\Ӄu tӕ rӫLUROLrQTXDQÿӃQFKLSKtWjLFKtQK 63

4.4.2 KhҧRViWWKӵc nghiӋm mӕi quan hӋ ³QKkQ± quҧ´ 86

4.4.3 Thu thұSYjSKkQWtFKVӕ liӋu khҧRViWPӕi quan hӋ QKkQTXҧ 91

4.4.3.2 3KkQWtFKVӕ liӋu khҧRViWPӕi quan hӋ QKkQTXҧ 91

4.5.1 &iF\rXWӕ ҧQKKѭӣQJYjWUҥQJWKiLWѭѫQJӭng 101 4.5.2 0{KuQKÿӏQKOѭӧng rӫi ro NKLÿҫXWѭWKӵc hiӋn dӵ iQ bҵng BBNs: 101

4.6.1 Giӟi thiӋXYjLQpWYӅ F{QJWUuQKӭng dөng 102 4.6.2 KiӇm chӭQJWtQKKӧSOêÿӝ tin cұy cӫDP{KuQKӭng dөng 103

ÈSGөQJP{KuQK%%1¶VYjRF{QJWUuQKWKӵc tӃ 103

4.6.2.2 KhҧRViW[iFVXҩWFyÿLӅu kiӋn giӳDFiFELӃn 103

4.6.2.3 KӃt quҧ bҧng khҧRViW[iFVXҩWFyÿLӅu kiӋn 107

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5.1 Mӝt sӕ ÿӅ xuҩt hҥn chӃ rӫi ro khi thӵc hiӋn dӵ iQ 122

5.1.1 ӬQJSKyYӟi rӫi ro thӵc hiӋQSKiSOêGӵ iQ 114 5.1.2 ӬQJSKyYӟi rӫi ro vӅ tiӃQÿӝ thӵc hiӋn dӵ iQ 123 5.1.3 ӬQJSKyYӟi rӫi ro vӅ chҩWOѭӧng thӵc hiӋn dӵ iQ 124 5.1.4 ӬQJSKyYӟi rӫi ro vӅ FKLSKtWjLFKtQK 125

T¬,/,ӊU THAM KHҦO 138

PHӨ LӨC

PHӨ LӨC 1: BҦ1*&Æ8+ӒI KHҦ26È7 142

Phө lөc 1.1:BҧQJFkXKӓi khҧRViWFiF\Ӄu tӕ rӫLURWURQJTXiWUuQKÿҫXWѭthӵc hiӋn dӵ iQ 142 Phө lөc 1.2: BҧQJFkXKӓi khҧRViW[iFÿӏnh mӕLOLrQKӋ QKkQTXҧ giӳDFiF\Ӄu tӕ rӫi ro vӟi nhau 146 Phө lөc 1.3: BҧQJFkXKӓi khҧRViW[iFÿӏQK[iFVXҩt khҧ QăQJ[ҧy ra, sӵ WiFÿӝng giӳDFiF\Ӄu tӕ rӫi ro vӟi nhau tӟLTXiWUuQKWKӵc hiӋn dӵ iQ 151

PHӨ LӨ&&È&BҦ1*3+Æ17Ë&++,ӊU QUҦ 7¬,&+Ë1+ 160

Bҧng Tәng mӭFÿҫXWѭWKӵc hiӋn dӵ iQ 160

Bҧng KӃ hoҥFKÿҫXWѭWjLFKtQK 162

Bҧng Nguӗn vӕQÿҫXWѭ 163

Bҧng /mL suҩt, thuӃ 163

Bҧng KӃ hoҥch trҧ nӧ vay 164

Bҧng KӃ hoҥFKFKLSKtKRҥWÿӝQJNLQKGRDQKEiQKjQJ 164

Bҧng Tәng kӃ hoҥch doanh thu 165

Bҧng Tәng kӃ hoҥFKFKLSKt 166

Bҧng 'zng tiӅn 166

Bҧng 3KkQWtFKFiFFKӍ WLrXWjLFKtQK 168

- NPV : Net present value - *tiWUӏ hiӋn tҥi thuҫn

- IRR : Internal rate of return - Suҩt sinh lӧi nӝi bӝ

- ROE : Return On Equity - Lӧi nhuұQWUrQYӕn chӫ sӣ hӳu

- VAT : ThuӃ JLiWUӏ JLDWăJ

- TM ± DV 7KѭѫQJPҥi dӏch vө

- Thv : ThӡLJLDQKRjQYӕn\

- DTSXD : DiӋQWtFKVjQ[k\Gӵng

- DTSKD : DiӋQWtFKVjQNLQKGRDQK

DANH MӨ&+Î1+

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+uQK4X\WUuQKQJKLrQFӭu 28

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+uQK6ѫÿӗ %%1¶VYӅ mӕi quan hӋ ³1JX\rQQKkQ± hӋ quҧ´ 33

+uQK%LӇXÿӗ SKkQEӕ ÿѫQYӏ F{QJWiF 68

+uQK%LӇXÿӕ SKkQEӕ QăPNLQKQJLӋm cӫDÿӕLWѭӧng tham gia khҧRViW69 +uQK%LӇXÿӕ SKkQEӕ vӏ WUtF{QJYLӋc cӫDÿӕLWѭӧQJÿѭӧc khҧRViW70 +uQK%LӇXÿӕ SKkQEӕ JLiWUӏ [k\Gӵng cӫDÿӕLWѭӧQJÿѭӧc khҧRViW71 +uQK%LӇXÿӕ SKkQOƭQKYӵFGӵiQFyFӫDÿӕLWѭӧng tham gia khҧRViW73 +uQK6ѫÿӗ VѫEӝ mӕi quan hӋ QKkQTXҧ giӳDFiF\Ӄu tӕ rӫi 90

+uQK%LӇXÿӗ SKkQEӕ ÿѫQYӏ F{QJWiF 92

+uQK%LӇXÿӕ SKkQEӕ QăPNLQKQJLӋPÿӕLWѭӧng tham gia khҧRViW93 +uQK%LӇXÿӕ SKkQEӕ vӏ WUtF{QJYLӋc cӫDÿӕLWѭӧQJÿѭӧc khҧRViW94 +uQK%LӇXÿӕ SKkQEӕ giiWUӏ [k\Gӵng cӫDÿӕLWѭӧQJÿѭӧc khҧRViW +uQK%LӇXÿӕ SKkQOƭQKYӵF'ӵiQFӫDÿӕLWѭӧng tham gia khҧRViW96 +uQK6ѫÿӗ mӕi quan hӋ ³QKkQ± quҧ´ÿѭDYjRP{KuQK%%1¶V101 +uQK'ӳ liӋu nhұSYjRSKҫn mӅm MSBNX cho QKyPUӫLURSKiSOê +uQK'ӳ liӋu nhұSYjRSKҫn mӅP06%1;FKRQKyPUӫi ro tiӃQÿӝ 115 +uQK'ӳ liӋu nhұSYjRSKҫn mӅP06%1;QKyPUӫi ro chҩWOѭӧng 116 +uQK'ӳ liӋu nhұSYjRSKҫn mӅP06%1;QKyPUӫi ro thӏ WUѭӡng 118

+uQK'ӳ liӋu nhұSYjRSKҫn mӅP06%1;QKyPUӫLURFKLSKt 117

+uQK'ӳ liӋu nhұSYjRSKҫn mӅm MSBNX vӅ rӫi ro tәng thӇ khi thӵc hiӋn dӵ iQ 118

+uQK.Ӄt quҧ WtQKWRiQUӫi ro khi thӵc hiӋn dӵ iQÿҫXWѭ 119

+uQK%LӇXÿӗ VRViQKFiFUӫi ro khi thӵc hiӋn dӵ iQÿҫXWѭ 120

+uQK6ѫÿӗ rӫi ro khi thӵc hiӋn dӵ iQÿҫXWѭ 121

DANH MӨC BҦNG

Bҧng 2 1 GiҧLSKiSӭQJSKyUӫi ro 17

BҧQJ1KkQWӕ WiFÿӝQJÿӃQFKLSKtQKjWKҫu 24

BҧQJ&{QJFө QJKLrQFӭu 29

Bҧng 3.2 BҧQJ[iFVXҩt cӫa tiӃQÿӝ 33

Bҧng 4.1 0mKyDGӳ liӋXFiFELӃn rӫi ro trong phҫn mӅm SPSS 59

Bҧng 4.2 KiӇPÿӏQKWKDQJÿR&URQEDFK¶V$OSKDYӅ rӫLURSKiSOê 61

Bҧng 4.3 KiӇPÿӏQKWKDQJÿR&URQEDFK¶V$OSKDYӅ rӫi ro tiӃQÿӝ 62

Bҧng 4.4: KiӇPÿӏQKWKDQJÿR&URQEDFK¶V$OSKDYӅ rӫi ro chҩWOѭӧng 62

Bҧng 4.5: KiӇPÿӏQKWKDQJÿR&URQEDFK¶V$OSKDYӅ rӫi ro thӏ WUѭӡng 63

Bҧng 4.6: KiӇPÿӏnh thang ÿR&URQEDFK¶V$OSKDYӅ rӫLURFKLSKtWjLFKtQK64 Bҧng 4.7: BҧQJJLiWUӏ WUXQJEuQKFiF\Ӄu tӕ rӫi ro 65

BҧQJ&iF\Ӄu tӕ rӫi ro khi thӵc hiӋn dӵ iQÿѭӧc khҧRViWFKtQKWKӭc 65

Bҧng 4.9 : Bҧng thӕQJNrÿѫQYӏ F{QJWiFFӫDÿӕLWѭӧng khҧRViW 67

Bҧng 4.10: Bҧng thӕQJNrVӕ QăPNLQKQJKLӋm cӫDFiFÿӕLWѭӧQJÿѭӧc khҧo ViW 68

Bҧng 4.11: Bҧng thӕQJNrYӏ WUtF{QJYLӋc hiӋn tҥi cӫDÿӕLWѭӧQJÿѭӧc khҧRViW 70

Bҧng 4.12: Bҧng thӕQJNrWәQJJLiWUӏ [k\Oҳp cӫDÿӕLWѭӧQJÿѭӧc khҧRViW71 Bҧng 4.13: Bҧng thӕQJNrFQJORҥLF{QJWUuQKÿӕLWѭӧQJÿѭӧc khҧRViW73 Bҧng 4.14: Bҧng kӃt quҧ hӋ sӕ &URQEDFK¶V$OSKDFiFQKkQWӕ rӫi ro 73

Bҧng 4.15: KӃt quҧ trӏ WUXQJEuQKFӫa cuӝc khҧRViWFKtQKWhӭFFiF\Ӄu tӕ rӫi ro 75

Bҧng 4.16 KӃt quҧ kiӇPÿӏnh Levenve 77

Bҧng 4.17 : KӃt quҧ kiӇPÿӏnh ANOVA 78

Bҧng 4.18: BҧQJPmKyDGӳ liӋXFiFPӕi quan hӋ ³QKkQ± quҧ´ 84

Bҧng 4.18a :Bҧng kӃt quҧ JLiWUӏ WUXQJEuQKÿiQKJLiPӕi quan hӋ ³QKkQ± quҧ´Fӫa khҧRViWWKӱ nghiӋm 86

Bҧng 4.18b KiӇPÿӏQK&URQEDFK¶V$OSKDWәng thӇ khҧRViWWKӱ nghiӋm 87

Bҧng 4.19 : Bҧng thӕQJNrÿѫQYӏ F{QJWiFFӫDÿӕLWѭӧng khҧRViW 91 Bҧng 4.20: Bҧng thӕQJNrVӕ QăPNLQKQJKLӋm cӫDFiFÿӕLWѭӧQJÿѭӧc khҧo

Bҧng 4.21: Bҧng thӕQJNrYӏ WUtF{QJYLӋc cӫDÿӕLWѭӧQJÿѭӧc khҧRViW Bҧng 4.22: Bҧng thӕQJNrWәQJJLiWUӏ [k\Oҳp cӫDÿӕLWѭӧQJÿѭӧc khҧRViW Bҧng 4.23: Bҧng thӕQJNrFQJORҥLF{QJWUuQKÿӕLWѭӧQJÿѭӧc khҧRViW Bҧng 4.24: Bҧng kӃt quҧ hӋ sӕ &URQEDFK¶V$OSKDFiFQKkQWӕ rӫi ro 96 Bҧng 4.25 Bҧng kӃt quҧ JLiWUӏ WUXQJEuQKPӕi quan hӋ ³QKkQ- quҧ´98 BҧQJ;iFVXҩt khҧ QăQg xҧy ra cӫDFiF\Ӄu tӕ rӫi ro 103 Bҧng 4.27: Bҧng tәng hӧp trҥQJWKiLFiFELӃn 104 BҧQJ0{Wҧ quan hӋ FiF\Ӄu tӕ NK{QJFyQJX\rQQKkQ 106 BҧQJ0{Wҧ quan hӋ FiF\Ӄu tӕ FyPӝt biӃQQJX\rQQKkQ 106 BҧQJ0{tҧ quan hӋ FiF\Ӄu tӕ FyWӯ 2 biӃQQJX\rQQKkQWUӣ OrQ 107 Bҧng 4.31: Bҧng tәng hӧSJLiWUӏ khҧRViW[iFVXҩWFiFELӃn 108 Bҧng 5.1 KӃ hoҥFKÿҫXWѭWKӵc hiӋn dӵ iQ 128

Bҧng 5.4 ChӍ WLrXWKLӃt kӃ FѫVӣ (tt) 130 Bҧng 5.5 ThәQJNrGLӋQWtFKVjQ[k\GӵQJYjGLӋQWtFKWKѭѫQJSKҭm 131

&+ѬѪ1*MӢ DҪU 1.1 &ѫVӣ KuQKWKjQKÿӅ WjL

1.1.1 7uQKKuQKÿҫXWѭYjSKiWWULӇn BҩWÿӝng sҧn cӫDQѭӟc ta

HiӋn nay OƭQKYӵFÿҫXWѭ[k\GӵQJQyLFKXQJYjQJjQK%Ĉ6QyLULrQJWKu ViӋt 1DPOjPӝt trong sӕ FiFWKӏ WUѭӡng mӟi nәLYjQăQJÿӝQJWUrQWRjQFҫu TӕFÿӝ WăQJWUѭӣng kinh tӃ mҥnh mӁFQJWҫng lӟSWUXQJOѭXÿDQJJLDWăQg vӟi thu nhұSWăQJWUѭӣng QKDQKÿmJL~STXiWUuQKÿ{WKӏ KyDGLӉQUDQKDQKFKyQJOjPӝt trong nhӳQJOêGRJL~SViӋt Nam nҵm trong nhӳng quӕFJLDFyWӕFÿӝ WăQJWUѭӣng GDP nhanh nhҩt thӃ giӟi

³6DXPӝWJLDLÿRҥQVX\WKRiLQJҳn, nӅn kinh tӃ ViӋW1DPÿmFyVӵ phөc hӗi mҥnh mӁ, ÿѭӧFWK~Fÿҭy bӣi nhu cҫu nӝLÿӏa kӇ tӯ TXê,,´>@

Kinh tӃ ViӋW1DPÿҥt kӃt quҧNKiWtFKFӵFWURQJQăPYӟLWӕFÿӝWăQJWUѭӣQJ

*'3ѭӟFÿҥWĈLӅXQj\JL~SWK~Fÿҭ\FiFQKjÿҫXWѭTXӕc tӃ tham gia tҥi thӏ WUѭӡng bҩWÿӝng sҧQÿҫy tiӅPQăQJQj\7KHRWKӕQJNrFӫa Bӝ ;k\Gӵng vӅ WuQKKuQKWKӵc hiӋn

&KѭѫQJWUuQK3KiWWULӇQÿ{WKӏ quӕFJLDJLDLÿRҥn 2012± 2020 cho thҩ\WKuWtQKÿӃn hӃt TXê,,-2014, tӹ lӋ ÿ{WKӏ KyDFӫDQѭӟFWDÿҥWÿDVӕ tұp trung tҥLWKjQKSKӕ Hӗ &Kt 0LQKYj+j1ӝLYjFiFWӍnh xung quanh [2]

Thӏ WUѭӡQJ%Ĉ6SKөc hӗi kӇ tӯ QăPÿӃn nay cho thҩy nhӳQJÿLӅu chӍnh cӫa thӏ WUѭӡng lҥLOjPӝWWtQKLӋXWtFKFӵFWURQJGjLKҥn MӝWFiFKÿѫQJLҧQOjNKLQKuQYjR

sӵ tham gia cӫDFiFQJXӗn vӕQQJRjL9LӋt Nam trong nhiӅu giao dӏch chuyӇQQKѭӧng

%Ĉ6OӟQWURQJQăPQD\± ӣ FiFSKkQNK~FFăQKӝYăQSKzQJQKjӣ ULrQJOҿ YjFK~QJWDFyWKӇ cҧm nhұQÿѭӧc sӵ KjRKӭng cӫDFiFQKjÿҫXWѭQѭӟFQJRjLÿӕi vӟi thӏ WUѭӡng

%Ĉ69LӋt Nam

Theo nhұQÿӏnh cӫa mӝt sӕ FKX\rQJLD³0ӝt nӱa chһQJÿѭӡng cӫa thӏ WUѭӡng Bҩt ÿӝng sҧQQăPÿmÿLTXD%rQFҥnh mӝt sӕ WtQKLӋXWtFKFӵc vӅ FKtQKViFKÿѭӧFÿѭDUDWKuGѭӡQJQKѭWKӏ WUѭӡQJÿDQJFyQKӳQJWtQKLӋu nhӳQJÿӝWSKiKѫQQӳa ӣ chһng ÿѭӡQJFzQOҥi cӫDQăPÿӇ OjPWLӅQÿӅ cho thӏ WUѭӡnJQKjÿҩt thӵc sӵ hӗi phөFSKiWWULӇn WURQJJLDLÿRҥn tӟL´>@

³0һFGWiFÿӝng cӫa Covid-ÿѭӧc dӵ EiRVӁ FzQNpRGjLÿӃn cuӕLQăPWX\QKLrQWKӏ WUѭӡQJ%Ĉ6VӁ sӟm phөc hӗLYjSKiWWULӇQWURQJJLDLÿRҥn tiӃp theo 2021-

Ĉk\OjWKӡLÿLӇPNKyNKăQYӟi nhiӅXQKjÿҫXWѭWURQJYjQJRjLQѭӟFQyLFKXQJQKѭQJÿӕi vӟi mӝt sӕPQKyPFiQKkQYjGRDQKQJKLӋSFyQăQJOӵFWjLFKtQKWӕt, nhiӅu kinh nghiӋPWKuÿk\OҥLOjFѫKӝi lӟQ´>@

7KHRÿiQKJLiFKXQJFӫDFiFFKX\rQJLDYӅ OƭQKYӵF[k\GӵQJWKuP{LWUѭӡQJÿҫu Wѭ[k\Gӵng ӣ ViӋW1DPÿDQJWLӅm ҭn rҩt nhiӅu rӫi ro, phӭc tҥSQKѭWKӫ tөFSKiSOêFѫ

sӣ hҥ tҫng, thӫ tөc vӅ ÿҩWÿDLELӃQÿӝQJJLiYұt liӋXFNJQJQKѭUӫLURWURQJTXiWUuQK[k\dӵng, biӃQÿӝQJJLiEiQWUrQWKLWUѭӡng, biӃQÿӝng vӅ OmLVXҩWYjQJXӗn vӕn

Vӟi mӝt thӏ WUѭӡng to lӟQYjWLӅPQăQJQKѭQJWKӵc tӃ cho thҩ\FyUҩt nhiӅu doanh nghiӋp rҩt lӟn mҥnh vӅ mӑi mһt cҧ vӅ QăQJOӵFWjLFKtQKWKѭѫQJKLӋXQKѭQJNKLÿLYjRmҧQJÿҫXWѭNLQKGRDQK%Ĉ6WKuWKXDOӛ buӝc phҧLWKD\ÿәLQJKjQKQJKӅ thұPFKtSKi sҧQYjQӧ nҫQJ7X\QKLrQFNJQJFyQKLӅu chӫ ÿҫXWѭEҩWÿӝng sҧn WKjQKF{QJWӯ doanh nghiӋp nhӓ, nguӗn vӕQtWӓi

1.1.2 QuҧQOêUӫi ro dӵ iQӣ ViӋt Nam

Trong bӕi cҧnh hӝi nhұp quӕc tӃ VkXUӝng theo nӅn kinh tӃ thӏ WUѭӡQJQKѭKLӋn QD\FiFGӵ iQÿҫXWѭ[k\Gӵng F{QJWUuQKFNJQJFKӏu ҧQKKѭӣng nhiӅXNKLFyVӵ WiFÿӝng NK{QJәQÿӏnh tӯ P{LWUѭӡng xung quanh khi tiӃQKjQKWKӵc hiӋn dӵ iQ9LӋFÿiQKJLiYjFKӫ ÿӝng quҧQOêFiFҧQKKѭӣQJQj\OjUҩt quan trӑQJYjÿmÿѭӧc nhiӅXQѭӟFSKiWtriӇQQJKLrQFӭXYjJLҧi quyӃt thjQKF{QJWURQJWKӵc tiӉn Khi thӵc hiӋn Dӵ iQÿҫXWѭ[k\Gӵng nhҵPÿҥt mөFWLrXÿҫXWѭFzQSKiWWULӇn tҥRFѫVӣ vұt chҩWFKR[mKӝLQrQWKѭӡQJFyWKӡi gian hoҥWÿӝQJGjLFKӏXWiFÿӝng trӵc tiӃp tӯ nhiӅXP{LWUѭӡng xung TXDQKQKѭFKtQKWUӏ, kinh tӃ[mKӝi, tӵ QKLrQOXұWSKiSF{QJQJKӋ«'RYұy cҫQFyVӵ quҧQOêÿLӅu chӍQKSKKӧSWURQJTXiWUuQKWKӵc hiӋQQrQTXҧQOêUӫLURNKLÿҫXWѭWKӵc hiӋn dӵ iQOjPӝt thӵc tӃ

%rQFҥQKÿyP{LWUѭӡQJ[k\Gӵng ӣ ViӋW1DPÿҫy rӫLURGRFѫVӣ hҥ tҫQJNpPchҩWOѭӧng, FѫFKӃ quҧQOêFKұPÿәi mӟi, hӋ thӕQJFKtQKSKӫ TXDQOLrXYjWKLӃXWtQK

ÿy³YLӋF[iFÿӏQKÿiQKJLiNLӇPVRiWQKҵm hҥn chӃ WiFÿӝQJWLrXFӵc tӟi dӵ iQFKѭDÿѭӧFFK~QJWD FK~WUӑQJYjEӏ ÿӝQJ&KtQKFiFWiFÿӝQJNK{QJәn tӯ P{LWUѭӡng xung quanh cӝng vӟi viӋc quҧQOêӭQJSKyUӫLURNK{QJWӕt, dүn tӟi viӋc phҧLWKD\ÿәi nhiӅu WLrXFKtFѫEҧQYjKLӋu quҧ ÿҫXWѭFӫa dӵ iQÿѭӧc dӵ WtQKEDQÿҫu [5]

Rӫi ro xuҩt hiӋn khi tӗn tҥi ÿӗng thӡi hai yӃu tӕ FѫEҧn: yӃu tӕ Jk\UDUӫLURYjÿӕLWѭӧng chӏXWiFÿӝng, ҧQKKѭӣng Sӟm chӫ ÿӝng nhұn dҥQJSKkQWtFKÿiQKJLiFybiӋQSKiSNLӇPVRiWYjJLҧm thiҿXFiFWiFÿӝng xuҩy cӫa rӫLUROjKӃt sӭc cҫn thiӃt nhҵm ÿҧm bҧo khҧ thi, hiӋu quҧ cӫa dӵ iQ LuұW ;k\ Gӵng sӕ 50/2014/QH13, Nghӏ ÿӏnh

sӕ 1Ĉ-&3QJj\FӫD&KtQKSKӫ vӅ quҧQOêGӵ iQÿҫXWѭ[k\Gӵng YjFiFYăQEҧQKѭӟng dүn luұWNKiFÿѭӧFEDQKjQKWURQJWKӡLJLDQTXDÿm[iFOұSKjQKODQJSKiSOêTXDQWUӑng tҥRÿLӅu kiӋQSKiWtriӇn bӅn vӳQJFiFKRҥWÿӝQJÿҫXWѭ[k\Gӵng ӣ QѭӟFWDÿmTX\ÿӏQKU}Qӝi dung thҭPÿӏnh dӵ iQÿҫXWѭ[k\GӵQJF{QJWUuQKFӫDQJѭӡi quyӃWÿӏQKÿҫXWѭWUѭӟFNKLSKrGX\Ӌt dӵ iQOj

- ;HP[pWFiF\Ӄu tӕ bҧRÿҧPWtQKKLӋu quҧ cӫa dӵ iQEDRJӗm: sӵ cҫn thiӃt ÿҫu WѭTX\P{F{QJVXҩWF{QJQJKӋ; thӡi gian, tiӃQÿӝ thӵc hiӋn dӵ iQSKkQWtFKWjLFKtQKhiӋu quҧ kinh tӃ - [mKӝi cӫa dӵ iQ

- ;HP[pWFiF\Ӄu tӕ bҧRÿҧPWtQKNKҧ thi cӫa dӵ iQEDRJӗm: sӵ SKKӧp vӟi quy hoҥch; nhu cҫu sӱ dөQJÿҩWWjLQJX\rQQӃu cy NKҧ QăQJKX\ÿӝng vӕQÿiSӭng tiӃn

ÿӝ cӫa dӵ iQNLQKQJKLӋm quҧQOêFӫa chӫ ÿҫXWѭNKҧ QăQJKRjQWUҧ vӕn vay; giҧLSKiSSKzQJFKӕQJFKi\QәFiF\Ӄu tӕ ҧQKKѭӣQJÿӃn dӵ iQQKѭTXӕFSKzQJDQQLQKP{LWUѭӡng kinh tӃ [mKӝLYjFiFTX\ÿӏQKNKiFFӫa phiSOXұWFyOLrQTXDQ

1KѭYұ\WKHRFiFTX\ÿӏnh hiӋQKjQKFӫD1KjQѭӟc, viӋF[HP[pWYjNKҷQJÿӏnh WtQKNKҧ thi, hiӋu quҧ cӫa dӵ iQÿҫXWѭ[k\GӵQJF{QJWUuQKSKҧLÿѭӧFOjPU}YӅ nhiӅu mһt trong suӕt thӡLJLDQSKkQWtFKKRҥWÿӝng cӫa dӵ iQYzQJÿӡi cӫa dӵ iQ WUѭӟc khi ra quyӃWÿӏQKÿҫXWѭWKӵc hiӋn dӵ iQ7URQJVӕ nhiӅu vҩQÿӅ cӫa dӵ iQÿѭӧF[HP[pWVӁ diӉn ra ӣ WѭѫQJODLYjWURQJÿLӅu kiӋQFiFWiFÿӝQJNK{QJәQQKѭWKӡLJLDQWjLFKtQKhiӋu quҧ kinh tӃ«WKu\rXFҫu cҫQSKkQWtFKUӫi ro khi lұSYjWKҭm ÿӏnh dӵ iQOjKӃt sӭc cҫn thiӃt TuǤ thuӝFYjRPөFWLrXÿҫXWѭFKӭFQăQJSKөc vөFiFGӵ iQÿҫXWѭ[k\Gӵng

F{QJWUuQKFyWKӇ thuӝc mӝWWURQJKDLQKyPGӵ iQQKyPFiFGӵ iQQKҵm mөFÿtFKSKөc

vө cӝQJÿӗQJ[mKӝi (phөc vө F{QJ NK{QJWKXOӧi nhuұQYjQKyPdӵ iQYӟi mөFÿtFKsҧn xuҩt kinh doanh nhҵm thu lӧi nhuұQ7KHRÿyFiFWLrXFKtÿiQKJLiKLӋu quҧ ÿҫXWѭ

ӣ mӛLQKyPGӵ iQFNJQJFyQKӳQJÿLӇPNKiFELӋWQKDX&iFGӵ iQWUѭӟc hӃt phҧLÿҧm bҧRFiF\rXFҫu vӅ SKiWWULӇQ[mKӝi, quy hoҥFKSKiSOêTX\FKXҭn, WLrXFKXҭn theo quy ÿӏQKWKuYҩQÿӅ hiӋu quҧ kinh tӃ - WjLFKtQKFӫa dӵ iQFyêQJKƭDTX\ӃWÿӏnh hiӋu quҧ ÿҫu WѭFӫa dӵ iQ9ӟLFiFGӵ iQSKөc vө F{QJKLӋu quҧ kinh tӃ - WjLFKtQKFҫQÿҥt tӟLOjFKLSKtWKҩp nhҩt cӫa dӵ iQWURQJFҧ YzQJÿӡLÿӕi vӟi dӵ iQ sҧn xuҩWNLQKGRDQKOjWKXÿѭӧc lӧi nhuұn cao nhҩt Rӫi ro xuҩt hiӋQWKѭӡQJ[X\rQJk\WKLӋt hҥi cho hiӋu quҧ ÿҫXWѭFӫa

dӵ iQ9ҩQÿӅ ÿһWUDÿӇ FK~QJWDQJKLrQFӭu, giҧi quyӃWOjQKұn dҥQJÿiQKJLiWiFÿӝng cӫa rӫLURYjNLӇPVRiWFK~QJÿӇ ÿҧm bҧo hiӋu quҧ ÿҫXWѭÿm[iFÿӏQKWUѭӟc cӫa dӵ iQ

- &{QJWiFÿiQKJLiUͯLURFK˱Dÿ˱ͫFFK~WU͕ng:

+ Khi mӟi bҳWÿҫXKuQKWKjQKêWѭӣQJYjOұp dӵ iQOX{QFyVӵ SKkQWtFKWtQKWRiQhiӋu quҧ ÿӇ quyӃW ÿӏQK ÿҫX Wѭ 7X\ QKLrQ NKL Fy FiF WiF ÿӝQJ NK{QJ әQ ÿӏnh tӯ P{LWUѭӡng xung quanh chӫ ÿҫXWѭEӏ ÿӝng dүn tӟi phҧLWKD\ÿәi nhiӅXWLrXFKtFѫEҧQÿѭӧc

dӵ WtQK EDQÿҫXYjOjPWKD\ÿәi hiӋu quҧ ÿҫXWѭWKұPFKtWKXDOӛ

+ MӝW FKX\rQ JLD [k\ Gӵng ViӋW 1DP ÿm NKҷQJ ÿӏQK /ê WKX\ӃW Yj WKӵc tiӉn trong viӋc quҧQOêUӫi ro tҥi ViӋW1DPFzQ \ӃXNpPYjJҫQQKѭӣ mӭc zero Tҥi ViӋt Nam, nhӳng hҥn chӃ ÿӕi vӟi quҧQOêUӫi rRÿyOjWKLӃu hөt vӅ tә chӭc, thiӃu hөt vӅ ÿLӅu kiӋQ\rXFҫXQKѭWKӡLJLDQWjLQJX\rQYjJLiWKjQKFiFQKjTXҧQOêNK{QJTXHQWKXӝc vӟi quҧQOêUӫLUR1JRjLUDNKiFKKjQJOҥLNK{QJFyQKXFҫu vӅ quҧQOêUӫLURWKrPviӋc thiӃu hөWFKX\rQJLDYjNLQKQJhiӋm vӅ quҧQOêUӫLURWK{QJWLQWUDRÿәi giӳDFiF

ÿӕLWiFEӏ giӟi hҥn" [5]

+ Trong thӵc tӃ rҩt nhiӅu dӵ iQPj&Kӫ ÿҫXWѭGRWKLӃu hoһFF{QJWiFSKkQWtFKÿiQKJLiYӅ rӫLURFKѭDWRjQGLӋQNK{QJÿѭӧFFK~WUӑQJQrQNK{QJWKӇ OѭӡQJWUѭӟFFiFrӫi ro tiӅm ҭQNK{QJFyVӵ dӵ SKzQJUӫi ro cҫn thiӃt khi lұp dӵ iQYjTX\ӃWÿӏQKÿҫXWѭĈyOjPӝt trong nhӳQJQJX\rQQKkQFKtQKÿӃn viӋc thӵc hiӋn dӵ iQNK{QJWKHRWKHRNӃ

hoҥFKÿ~QJFKLSKtPҩt khҧ QăQJWKXKӗi, thua lӛ thұPFKtSKiVҧQNpRWKHRQKLӅu hӋ lө\FKR1KjQѭӟc, tә chӭFFiQKkQYj[mKӝi

- &iFQJKLrQFͱXWU˱ͣFÿk\Y͉ SKkQWtFKqu̫QOêUͯLURÿmFyQK˱QJWK͹c t͇ ͱng dͭQJWKHRTXDQÿL͋m cͯa Chͯ ÿ̯XW˱O̩i thi͇u bͧLFiFOêGR

+ &iFQJKLrQFӭXWUѭӟFÿk\FzQULrQJUӁFKѭDEDRTXiWYjÿiQKJLiKӃWFiFQKkQ

tӕ rӫi ro cӫa mӝWYzQJÿӡi thӵc hiӋn dӵ iQWӯ NKLKuQKWKjQKêWѭӣQJÿӃn khi KRjQWKjQKÿѭDYjRVӱ dөQJYjYұQKjQKNKLOұSYjTX\ӃWÿӏQKÿҫXWѭWKӵc hiӋn dӵ iQ

+ &iFQJKLrQFӭXWUѭӟFÿk\WKLrQYӅ OêWKX\Ӄt kӻ thuұWPjFKѭD[pWQKLӅu vӅ yӃu

tӕ WjLFKtQKNLQKWӃ [mKӝi, thӏ WUѭӡQJNLQKGRDQK%Ĉ6YjFKѭD[k\Gӵng mӝWTX\WUuQKP{KuQKFө thӇ vӟLYDLWUzOjPӝWQKjÿҫXWѭÿӇ ÿiQKJLiGӵ iQQKҵP[k\Gӵng kӃ hoҥch quҧQOêUӫi ro tәng thӇ

7yPOҥLFQJYӟi sӵ cҥQKWUDQKQJj\FjQJFDRF{QJQJKӋ SKiWWULӇQYjELӃQÿӝng NK{QJQJӯng tӯ P{LWUѭӡQJErQQJRjLGӵ iQTXҧQOêUӫLURFyêQJKƭa quan trӑQJĈһc biӋWOjYLӋFSKkQWtFKUӫLURWURQJJLDLÿRҥn lұp dӵ iQÿҫXWѭYuÿk\OjJLDLÿRҥQPjFiF1KjÿҫXWѭFzQUҩWPѫKӗ vӅ dӵ iQYuPӑLSKkQWtFKÿӅXPDQJWtQKGӵ EiRYjѭӟFOѭӧng

&KtQKYuYұ\³ÿӇ sӱ dөng mӝWFiFKFyKLӋu quҧ nguӗn vӕQÿҫu WѭQKҵPWK~Fÿҭy nӅn kinh tӃ SKiWWULӇQWKuYLӋc thiӃt lұSSKkQWtFKGӵ iQWUrQFѫVӣ khoa hӑc, thӵc tiӉQNKiFKTXDQOjÿLӅu hӃt sӭc cҫn thiӃW´>@

1.2 MөFWLrXQJKLrQFӭu:

MөFWLrXFҫQQJKLrQFӭXOjSKkQWtFKÿiQKJLiFiFUӫLURWUtFKOұp dӵ SKzQJÿӇ kiӇm VRiWUӫi ro thӵc hiӋn dӵ iQӣ JLDLÿRҥQÿҫu khi chuҭn bӏ YjTX\ӃWÿӏnh thӵc hiӋn dӵ iQQKѭVDX

- ;iFÿӏQKFiF\Ӄu tӕ rӫi ro, mӕLOLrQKӋ QJX\rQQKkQ± hӋ quҧ giӳDFiF\Ӄu tӕ rӫi URYjNKҧ QăQJ[ҧ\UDWURQJTXiWUuQKÿҫXWѭWKӵc hiӋn dӵ iQ

- ÈSGөQJP{KuQK%D\HVLDQ1HWZRUN%%1¶6 ÿӇ SKkQWtFKYjÿiQKJLiFiF\Ӄu

tӕ rӫi ro

- ĈӅ xuҩt nhӳng biӋQSKiSӭQJSKyQKҵm khҳc phөc, hҥn chӃ YjÿiQKJLiKLӋu quҧ WjLFKtQKFKRGӵ iQ

- ÈSGөQJFKRF{QJWUuQKWKӵc tӃ, cө thӇ OjGӵ iQ&KXQJFѭWҥL%uQK'ѭѫQJ

ĈӅ WjLJySSKҫn trong viӋc tәng hӧSYjSKkQWtFKFiFÿiQKJLiFӫDFiFFKX\rQJLD

vӅ rӫi ro cӫa dӵ iQFKXQJFѭWҥi ViӋW1DP&iFSKkQWtFKÿѭӧc dӵDWUrQQӅn tҧQJOjFѫ

sӣ OêWKX\ӃWFѫEҧQQKѭ

/êWKX\Ӄt vӅ rӫLUROêWKX\Ӄt vӅ 6366ÿӇ SKkQWtFKÿiQKJLiVӕ liӋu khҧRViWOêthuyӃt vӅ P{KuQK%%1VÿӇ ÿӏQKOѭӧng rӫi ro

/êWKX\ӃWFѫEҧn mӝt sӕ TX\ÿӏQKSKiSOXұWQKѭOXұWÿҫXWѭ%ҩWÿӝng sҧn, luұt

;k\'ӵng, luұWĈҫXWѭOXұW1Kjӣ, luұt Quy hoҥch, luұWĈҩWÿDLOXұW7jLQJX\rQ 0{LWUѭӡQJFiFTX\FKXҭQWLrXFKXҫQYjFiFTX\ÿӏQKSKiSOXұWNKiF

/êWKXyӃWFѫEҧn vӅ WjLFKtQKÿӇ WtQKWRiQFiFFKӍ WLrXWjLFKtQK

1.4.2 VӅ mһt thӵc tiӉn:

ĈӅ WjLQKҵPJL~SKLӇXU}WKrPYDLWUzFӫDOƭQKYӵc QuҧQOêGӵ iQNKLÿӭng vai WUzOj1KjÿҫXWѭOjUҩt rӝng, tәng thӇEDRTXiWKLӇXU}WUuQKWӵ FiFEѭӟc thӵc hiӋn dӵ iQÿҫXWѭSKkQWtFKÿiQKJLiKLӋu quҧ dӵ iQÿҫXWѭNӃ hoҥFKYjWLӃQÿӝ thӵc hiӋQWRjQ

bӝ YzQJÿӡi cӫa dӵ iQWӯ NKLKuQKWKjQKÿӃn khi kӃWWK~FÿѭDGӵ iQYjRNKDLWKiFVӱ dөng

ĈӅ WjLJL~S[iFÿӏQKFiFQKkQWӕ rӫLURFKtQKҧQKKѭӣQJÿӃn dӵ iQ[iFVXҩt xҧy UDYjWiFÿӝng cӫDFK~QJOrQKLӋu quҧ ÿҫXWѭ*L~SÿiQKJLiUӫi ro cӫa dӵ iQÿѭӧc hiӋu quҧWRjQGLӋQYjSKKӧp nhҩWYuÿiQKJLiWRjQEӝ TXiWUuQKWKӵc hiӋn dӵ iQFNJQJQKѭthӡLÿLӇPÿiQKJLiUӫLURWUѭӟc khi quyӃWÿӏQKÿҫXWѭ4XDÿyJL~SFKRFiF&Kӫ ÿҫXWѭchӑn UDFiFGӵ iQFKRKLӋn tҥLYjWURQJWѭѫQJODLWӯ ÿyÿѭDUDFiFTX\ӃWÿӏnh lӵa chӑn giҧLSKiSNӃ hoҥch thӭc hiӋQYjSKѭѫQJiQNLQKGRDQKÿӇ ÿҥt hiӋu quҧ cao nhҩt

&+ѬѪ1*TӘNG QUAN 2.1 &iFNKiLQLӋm vӅ dӵ iQ

.KiLQLӋm dӵ iQ

Dӵ iQOjPӝt tәng thӇ FiFKRҥWÿӝng phө thuӝc lүn nhau nhҵm tҥo ra sҧn phҭm hoһc dӏch vө duy nhҩt trong khoҧn thӡLJLDQ[iFÿӏnh nhҵPÿҥWÿѭӧc mӝt sӕ kӃt quҧ ÿm[iFÿӏQKWUѭӟc [7], [8]

Dӵ iQOjPӝWQKyPFiFF{QJYLӋFÿѭӧc thӵc hiӋn theo mӝWWUuQKWӵ nhҩWÿӏnKÿӇ ÿҥWÿѭӧc mөFWLrXÿӅ UDFyWKӡLÿLӇm bҳWÿҫXYjNӃWWK~Fÿѭӧc ӭQJÿӏQKWUѭӟFYjVӱ dөng WjLQJX\rQFyJLӟi hҥn [9]

&iFF{QJYLӋc lӋ thuӝFYjRQKDXYjFҫQÿѭӧc thӵc hiӋn trong mӝt thӡi hҥQ[iFÿӏQK&iFKRҥWÿӝng cӫa dӵ iQGLӉQUDWURQJP{LWUѭӡng kh{QJFKҳc chҳQ0{LWUѭӡng cӫa dӵ iQNK{QJSKҧLOjP{LWUѭӡng hiӋn tҥLPjOjP{LWUѭӡQJWѭѫQJODLYj'ӵ iQSKҧi trҧ lӡLÿѭӧFFiFFkXKӓi sau:

+ MөFWLrXFӫa dӵ iQOjJu"

+ Thӡi gian thӵc hiӋQEDROkX"ĈӏDÿLӇPQjR"

+ Nguӗn lӵc cҫn thiӃWODRÿӝng, vӕQ« OjEDRQKLrX"

+ HoҥWÿӝng cӫa dӵ iQÿѭӧc thӵc hiӋQQKѭWKӃ QjR"

+ Sҧn phҭm, dӏch vө KD\JLiWUӏ ÿҫXUDÿѭӧc tҥo ra tӯ dӵ iQOjJu"

2.1.2 Dӵ iQFKXQJFѭ

1KjFKXQJFѭOjQKjFyWӯ 2 tҫng trӣ OrQFyQKLӅXFăQKӝFyOӕLÿLFҫu thang FKXQJFySKҫn sӣ hӳu ULrQJSKҫn sӣ hӳXFKXQJYjKӋ thӕQJF{QJWUuQKKҥ tҫng sӱ dөng FKXQJFKRFiFKӝ JLDÿuQKFiQKkQWә chӭc, bao gӗPQKjFKXQJFѭÿѭӧF[k\Gӵng vӟi mөFÿtFKÿӇ ӣ YjQKjFKXQJFѭÿѭӧF[k\GӵQJFyPөFÿtFKVӱ dөng hӛn hӧSÿӇ ӣ YjNLQKGRDQKĈLӅu 3, Luұt Nhjӣ sӕ 65/2014/QH13)

2.2 &iFNKiLQLӋm vӅ rӫi ro

.KiLQLӋm vӅ rӫi ro:

RӫLUROj³Wәng hӧp nhӳng yӃu tӕ ngүXQKLrQQKӳQJWuQKKXӕQJNK{QJWKXұn lӧi OLrQTXDQÿӃn bҩWÿӏQKFyWKӇ ÿROѭӡng bҵQJ[iFVXҩWNK{QJÿҥt mөFWLrXÿmÿӏnh cӫa dӵ iQYjJk\UDFiFPҩWPiWWKLӋt hҥL´>@

RӫLURÿѭӧFÿӏQKQJKƭDQKѭVӵ thӇ hiӋn nhӳng kӃt quҧ cӫa bҩWÿӏnh RӫLURWKѭӡng ÿѭӧFFkQQKҳFQKѭVӵ kiӋQNK{QJPRQJÿӧLFyWKӇ ÿѭӧc nhұn dҥQJYjÿӏQKOѭӧQJWK{QJTXDWiFÿӝQJYj[iFVXҩt xҧ\UDĈӏQKQJKƭDFә ÿLӇn cӫa rӫi ro (11):

RӫLUR ;iFVXҩt cӫa sӵ kiӋQîFѭӡQJÿӝ cӫa mҩWPiWKRһc lӧLtFK