Assessing cropping pattern adaptability to climate risks in the vietnamese mekong river delta

VIETNAM NATIONAL UNIVERSITY, HANOI VIETNAM JAPAN UNIVERSITY TRAN THUY TRANG ASSESSING CROPPING PATTERN ADAPTABILITY TO CLIMATE RISKS IN THE VIETNAMESE MEKONG RIVER DELTA MASTER'S THESIS VIETNAM NATIONAL UNIVERSITY, HANOI VIETNAM JAPAN UNIVERSITY TRAN THUY TRANG ASSESSING CROPPING PATTERN ADAPTABILITY TO CLIMATE RISKS IN THE VIETNAMESE MEKONG RIVER DELTA MAJOR: CLIMATE CHANGE AND DEVELOPMENT CODE: 8900201.02QTD RESEARCH SUPERVISOR: Dr AKIHIKO KOTERA Dr NGUYEN THI THUY HANG Hanoi, 2023 PLEDGE I pledge that this thesis is original and has not been published before I am aware of the regulations regarding using other research and documents, and I will ensure that all citations and references adhere to the requirements I have reviewed the guidelines on plagiarism violations I solemnly declare that the research presented in this thesis is my own and does not infringe upon the Regulation on Prevention of Plagiarism in Academic and Scientific Research Activities at VNU Vietnam Japan University (Issued together with Decision No 700/QD-ĐHVN dated 30/9/2021 by the Rector of Vietnam Japan University) Author of the thesis Tran Thuy Trang ACKNOWLEDGEMENT I would like to express my sincere gratitude to the following individuals and groups who have played a significant role in the completion of my master's thesis: First and foremost, I would like to extend my deepest appreciation to my main supervisor, Dr Akihiko Kotera His guidance, support, and encouragement throughout the research process have been invaluable I am also grateful for his sponsorship of the field trip, which provided me with valuable firsthand experience and enriched my understanding of the subject matter I am indebted to Dr Nguyen Thi Thuy Hang for her technical expertise and professional advice Her insightful feedback and constructive criticism have contributed significantly to the improvement of this thesis I would like to acknowledge my classmates, who have been an incredible source of support throughout this journey Their camaraderie, willingness to help and mutual care for one another have created a positive and conducive learning environment Late-night study sessions and shared deadlines have brought us closer together, and I am thankful for their companionship Lastly, I want to acknowledge the numerous challenges and setbacks I encountered during this research It is through perseverance and determination that I was able to overcome these obstacles I commend myself for not giving up on life and staying committed to the completion of this thesis Without the support and contributions of these individuals and my personal resolve, this thesis would not have been possible I am sincerely grateful to all who have been a part of this journey and have contributed to its success TABLE OF CONTENT PLEDGE i ACKNOWLEDGEMENT ii TABLE OF CONTENT i LIST OF TABLES i LIST OF FIGURES ii LIST OF ACRONYMS iv CHAPTER INTRODUCTION 1.1 The necessity of the research 1.2 Literature review 1.2.1 Climate-risks in Vietnamese Mekong River Delta 1.2.2 Cropping pattern in Vietnamese Mekong River Delta 1.2.3 Sustainable cropping methods in Vietnamese Mekong River Delta 12 1.3 Scope of the research 15 1.4 Research questions and hypotheses 15 1.5 Research objectives 16 1.6 Study area 17 1.7 The framework of the research 23 CHAPTER DATA AND METHODS 25 2.1 Data used 25 2.2 Methods 25 2.2.1 Remote sensing data collection and analysis 25 2.2.2 Ground truth observation 30 2.2.3 Desk review method 37 2.2.4 Non-structured interview 37 CHAPTER RESULTS 39 3.1 Cropping pattern changes in Vietnamese Mekong River Delta 39 3.2 Cropping pattern changes adapting to climate risks 43 3.2.1 Cropping pattern changes adapting to floods 44 3.2.2 Cropping pattern changes adapting to other climate risks 48 CHAPTER DISCUSSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 54 4.1 Assessing the cropping pattern changes’ efficiency 54 4.2 Problems with triple cropping pattern 55 4.3 Recommendations 56 CHAPTER CONCLUSION 60 5.1 Conclusion 60 5.2 Limitations and future outlooks 61 REFERENCES 63 APPENDICES 68 LIST OF TABLES Table 1-1: Comparison between costs and benefits of intensified and balanced cropping in An Giang and Dong Thap, respectively 13 Table 1-2: Explanation for sustainable cropping practice approaches in VMRD 14 Table 1-3:Researching questions and hypotheses 15 Table 1-4: Approved agriculture development plan in VMRD period of 2011-2025 20 Table 2-1: IGBP classification scheme and RGB color code for LULC map 26 Table 2-2: MODIS data acquisition date table 27 Table 2-3: GTO field trip schedule in VMRD (March 2023) 31 Table 2-4: EVI accuracy assessment of Tra Vinh province points 33 Table 2-5: Accuracy assessment of An Giang province points 34 Table 2-6: Heading dates accuracy assessment of Tra Vinh province points 35 Table 2-7: Heading dates accuracy assessment of An Giang province points 36 i LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1-1: Flooding period by percentage of area in VMRD from 2000 to 2022 (GIS data) Figure 1-2: Provincial flood and salinity risk in VMRD Figure 1-3: Typology and short definitions of the cropping system components Figure 1-4:Dikes and planted area of crops in An Giang from 1985-2016 11 Figure 1-5: Dike construction: low and high dikes area in An Giang province in 2011 and 2014 12 Figure 1-6: VMRD administrative map 18 Figure 1-7: ecological sub-regions for agricultural development plan in VMRD 20 Figure 1-8: SWI leading to soil salinity map with the depth from cm to 20 cm in Tra Vinh province, VMRD, VN 22 Figure 1-9: An Giang and Tra Vinh in administrative map 23 Figure 1-10: Dike area in An Giang Province, VN, in 2014 23 Figure 1-11: The logical framework of the research 24 Figure 2-1: EVI spectral viewer 29 Figure 2-2: GTO in VMRD route (blue line) 31 Figure 2-3: GTO validation process from point 32 Figure 2-4: GTO route in Tra Vinh and An Giang (pictures for each location are attached and can be accessed via Google Earth) 33 Figure 2-5: The example of rice growth stages and other rice field conditions in the paddy field area 34 Figure 3-1: LULC maps from 2001 to 2021 in VMRD 39 Figure 3-2: LULC change in VMRD from 2001 to 2021 (GIS data) 40 Figure 3-3: Differences in planted area of paddy by provinces in the whole period from 2001 to 2021 (statistical data) Error! Bookmark not defined Figure 3-4: Map of changes in planted area of paddy in VMRD by provinces from 2001 to 2021 (statistical data) 41 Figure 3-5: Cropping frequency changes in VMRD from 2000 to 2022 43 Figure 3-6: Yearly cropping frequency in VMRD from 2000 to 2022 (GIS data) 43 Figure 3-7: Maps of the number of flooding days in An Giang province from 2008 to 2015 45 Figure 3-8: Maps of cropping frequency in An Giang province from 2008 to 2015 46 Figure 3-9: Cropping frequency changing trend in An Giang province from 2010 to 2015 (GIS data) 47 Figure 3-10: Production of paddy in An Giang from 2010 to 2015 (statistical data) 48 Figure 3-11: LULC maps in Tra Vinh from 2001 to 2021 49 ii Figure 3-12: Number of inundated days yearly in Tra Vinh and An Giang from 2000 to 2022 50 Figure 3-13: Planted area for paddy in Tra Vinh province from 2001 to 2021 (statistical data) 51 Figure 3-14: Cropping frequency in Tra Vinh province from 2000 to 2022 (GIS data) 52 Figure 3-15: Cropping frequency maps in Tra Vinh province from 2000 to 2022 52 Figure 4-1: Yield of spring, autumn & winter paddy by provinces in VMRD from 2001 to 2014 (statistical data) 54 Figure 4-2: Paddy and orange intercropping in Tra Vinh Province (GTO) 57 Figure 4-3: Lotus pond combined with paddy field in Long An Province (GTO) 57 Figure 4-4: Inefficient paddy fields transformed into land for installing solar power panels in An Giang Province (GTO) 58 Figure 4-5: Advertisement material for sustainable agriculture approach in VMRD: reductions gains (left), and must-do reductions (right) 59 iii LIST OF ACRONYMS CC CS-MAP DOY GIS GTO LULC MODIS SWI VMRD VN : : : : : : : : : : Climate change Climate-Smart Mapping and Planning Date of year Geographic Information System Ground truth observation Land use and land cover Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Saline water intrusion Vietnamese Mekong River Delta Vietnam iv CHAPTER INTRODUCTION 1.1 The necessity of the research Vietnam (VN) is located on the East Sea of the Pacific Ocean with a long coastal line at more than 3,000 km of coastline and is among the most vulnerable countries to the impact of climate change (CC) In reality, VN has been through many hostile phenomena of CC in recent years, including sea level rise, temperature increase, and intensified and more frequent hydro-climatic disasters (Cruz, 2007) This can be attributed to the country's location, long coastal line, and complex hydrological system Provided that the economy relies heavily on agriculture, this sector accounts for over 12% of the national GDP and 24 million employment (Nguyen et al., 2022) In 2021, the rice production in VN was approximately 43.9 million metric tons, and it is one of the biggest rice exporters in the world (Nguyen & Scrimgeour, 2022) Accounting for more than 50% of the nation's rice yield (Nguyen et al., 2022), the Vietnamese Mekong River Delta (VMRD) is one of the deltas cultivated most intensively worldwide However, this region is vulnerable to climate change and disasters because of its lowlying landform According to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, the climate risks for agriculture are rising temperature, changing rainfall, acidification increase, lack of oxygen, sea-level rise, extreme events, increased storms, and cyclones, droughts, and floods, increased climate variability (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2014) The MRD also faces several climate risks, including rising sea levels and exacerbating flooding phenomena, which also lead to saltwater intrusion (SWI) in MRD, along with droughts and limited availability of freshwater The VMRD is most affected by flooding and inundation The harvest of rice is reasonably susceptible In a report from (Nguyen et al., 2007), local farmers blame either inadequate flood control systems or damaged crops for low yields or crop losses and claim that flooding has practically become an annual occurrence Many places 42 43 44 45 46 DOY 329 337 345 353 361 588 589 590 591 592 2012 11/24 12/02 12/10 12/18 12/26 634 635 636 637 638 2013 11/25 12/03 12/11 12/19 12/27 680 681 682 683 684 2014 11/25 12/03 12/11 12/19 12/27 726 727 728 729 730 2015 11/25 12/03 12/11 12/19 12/27 772 773 774 775 776 2016 11/25 12/03 12/11 12/19 12/27 818 819 820 821 822 2017 11/25 12/03 12/11 12/19 12/27 864 865 866 867 868 2018 11/25 12/03 12/11 12/19 12/27 910 911 912 913 914 2019 11/25 12/03 12/11 12/19 12/27 956 957 958 959 960 2020 11/25 12/03 12/11 12/19 12/27 1002 1003 1004 1005 1006 2021 11/25 12/03 12/11 12/19 12/27 1048 1049 1050 1051 1052 2022 11/25 12/03 12/11 12/19 12/27 78 Appendix G: Accuracy assessment for Tra Vinh Province points Points No Route Date DOY Code Growth stage Photo Coordinate: Coordinate: E N EVI Heading date (DOY) Evaluating the degree of agreement Good=1, Bad=0 Tra Vinh 22/03/2023 81 G0050912 661357.45 1058175.09 1454 Tra Vinh 22/03/2023 81 G0050929 660069.24 1057575.46 1634 Tra Vinh 22/03/2023 81 G0050947 658754.37 1057072.86 1453 79 Points No Route Date DOY Code Growth stage Photo Coordinate: Coordinate: E N EVI Heading date (DOY) Evaluating the degree of agreement Good=1, Bad=0 Tra Vinh 22/03/2023 81 G0071173 655261.09 1061750.04 2140 Tra Vinh 22/03/2023 81 G0081513 656112.49 1068682.98 3725 Tra Vinh 22/03/2023 81 G0081759 642401.22 1067864.32 2875 80 Points No Route Date DOY Code Growth stage Photo Coordinate: Coordinate: E N EVI Heading date (DOY) Evaluating the degree of agreement Good=1, Bad=0 Tra Vinh 22/03/2023 81 G0081834 638952.74 1071317.4 4213 Tra Vinh 22/03/2023 81 G0081880 638150.14 1074383.25 4565 Tra Vinh 22/03/2023 81 G0081884 638154.8 1074687.7 4517 81 Points No Route Date DOY Code Growth stage Photo Coordinate: Coordinate: E N EVI Heading date (DOY) Evaluating the degree of agreement Good=1, Bad=0 10 Tra Vinh 22/03/2023 81 G0082076 630814.49 1082944.69 3856 0 11 Tra Vinh 22/03/2023 81 G0082092 629808.62 1083666.4 3376 12 Tra Vinh 22/03/2023 81 G0082106 628991.01 1084146.11 4419 89 82 Points No Route Date DOY Code Growth stage Photo Coordinate: Coordinate: E N EVI Heading date (DOY) Evaluating the degree of agreement Good=1, Bad=0 13 Tra Vinh 22/03/2023 81 G0082145 625856.47 1086303.97 3935 33 early 14 Tra Vinh 22/03/2023 81 G0082228 619526.61 1089242.81 4546 15 Tra Vinh 22/03/2023 81 G0082290 616330.92 1091610.35 3207 0 ealy 83 Points No Route Date DOY Code Growth stage Photo Coordinate: Coordinate: E N EVI Heading date (DOY) Evaluating the degree of agreement Good=1, Bad=0 16 Tra Vinh 22/03/2023 81 G0082335 616724.32 1094137.79 4860 17 Tra Vinh 22/03/2023 81 G0082397 617892.22 1098806.59 4326 18 Tra Vinh 22/03/2023 81 G0092544 607315.55 1101196.47 4707 84 Appendix H: Accuracy assessment for An Giang Province points Point no Coordinate: E Coordinate: N EVI 560241.571 1132058.824 4187 83 G0145375 556755.293 1135961.401 4338 83 G0145382 556721.161 1136639.836 3855 Route Date DOY Code An Giang 24/03/2023 83 G0135267 An Giang 24/03/2023 An Giang 24/03/2023 Growth stage Photo Heading date Evaluating the degree of agreement Good=1, Bad=0 85 Point no Coordinate: E Coordinate: N EVI 556711.212 1136840.549 3855 83 G0156397 514988.907 1134473.730 3913 49 83 G0156515 507809.056 1141872.590 3256 Route Date DOY Code An Giang 24/03/2023 83 G0145384 An Giang 24/03/2023 An Giang 24/03/2023 Growth stage Photo Heading date Evaluating the degree of agreement Good=1, Bad=0 1 early 86 Point no Coordinate: E Coordinate: N EVI 501130.124 1148455.287 3204 33 83 G0216973 501188.291 1177897.200 2148 25 early 83 G0227130 501604.346 1168263.269 4979 Route Date DOY Code An Giang 24/03/2023 83 G0166663 An Giang 24/03/2023 An Giang 24/03/2023 Growth stage Photo Heading date Evaluating the degree of agreement Good=1, Bad=0 87 Point no 10 Route Date An Giang 24/03/2023 DOY Code 83 G0247210 Growth stage Photo Coordinate: E Coordinate: N EVI 505701.243 1153596.076 2381 Heading date 25 Evaluating the degree of agreement Good=1, Bad=0 early 88 Appendix I: Matrix of learning results and outcomes of the Master’s Thesis with the MCCD’s Program Learning Outcomes (PLOs) Master’s Thesis Results of the Master’s Thesis Outcomes of the Master’s Thesis Time-series Analysis of the Recommendation The adaptability Reference for map of the changes in better cropping of the cropping future studies cropping cropping pattern practices for VMRD pattern to CC in about sustainable pattern in relation to VMRD rice production changes in climate risks in VMRD VMRD MCCD’s PLOs PLO1: Accumulating and mastering the basic knowledge on principles of Marxism - Leninism, Political Theory and Ideology of Ho Chi Minh; and general knowledge about administration and management PLO2: Mastering the fundamental, interdisciplinary knowledge and          methodologies to assess and address actual problems (fate and features) related to climate change mitigation, adaptation for sustainable development at global, national, and local levels PLO3: Understanding and developing systematic linking; necessary knowledge on science, technology, innovation and governance related to climate change response for development; identifying, 89 Master’s Thesis Results of the Master’s Thesis Time-series MCCD’s PLOs Analysis of the Recommendation Outcomes of the Master’s Thesis The adaptability Reference for map of the changes in better cropping of the cropping future studies cropping cropping pattern practices for VMRD pattern to CC in about sustainable pattern in relation to VMRD rice production changes in climate risks in VMRD VMRD analyzing, assessing and forecasting the issues related to climate change and CCR (climate change and response); predicting the developing trend of climate change science PLO4: Applying knowledge to solve the problems in climate change     and CCR: planning and approaching the works in field of climate change; proposing the initiatives as well as the researches on climate change; implementing the solutions on science, technology, mechanism, policy and finance for CCR and development PLO5: Having skills of cooperation with personal, agencies, organizations domestically and internationally to solve the climate change issues, communication in works, projects on climate change; and organizing, managing and administrating advanced career development 90 Master’s Thesis Results of the Master’s Thesis Time-series MCCD’s PLOs PLO6: Accumulating soft skills to self-directed and adapt to Analysis of the Recommendation Outcomes of the Master’s Thesis The adaptability Reference for map of the changes in better cropping of the cropping future studies cropping cropping pattern practices for VMRD pattern to CC in about sustainable pattern in relation to VMRD rice production changes in climate risks in VMRD VMRD                competitive working environment such as English proficiency (at level 4/6 according to English competencies Framework for Vietnam), Japanese communication skills; having skills on time management; using the basic computer skills proficiently; working and researching independently; having skills of research and development; and using technologies creatively in academic and professional fields PLO7: Dynamic, confident, persistent, enthusiastic, and risk-taking and management PLO8: Having social/community’s responsibility and professional morality, especially for scientific research results; being able to adapt to multicultural environment, answer the harmony between the 91 Master’s Thesis Results of the Master’s Thesis Time-series MCCD’s PLOs Analysis of the Recommendation Outcomes of the Master’s Thesis The adaptability Reference for map of the changes in better cropping of the cropping future studies cropping cropping pattern practices for VMRD pattern to CC in about sustainable pattern in relation to VMRD rice production changes in climate risks in VMRD VMRD stakeholders, CCR and development; having good social morality, assist the vulnerable people to climate change; compliance with the law; discipline at work and positive lifestyle; having good attitude to their career in climate change response for sustainable development PLO9: Having responsibility for researching, creating new      knowledge, and offering new ideas on climate change response in different complex situations; adapting and guiding other people and making expert decisions on climate change response; managing research, having high responsibility in learning in order to develop professional knowledge, and creating new ideas in new process; and having good life-long learning capacity 92