(Luận văn thạc sĩ) effectiveness of foreign aid projects for climate change response and sustainable development in the vietnamese mekong river delta

INTRODUCTION

The necessity of research

Climate change poses a significant challenge in the 21st century due to its global origins and long-term impacts While the Earth's climate has naturally fluctuated for millions of years, human activities, particularly the burning of fossil fuels, are the primary drivers of recent global warming This rise in temperature and shifts in precipitation patterns threaten food and water supplies, leading to the extinction of numerous plant and animal species Additionally, climate change results in rising sea levels, which threaten low-lying areas Beyond environmental impacts, climate change poses serious risks to human development and prosperity.

Developing countries are more susceptible to adverse conditions than developed nations due to their limited adaptive capacity, inadequate regulatory systems, and heavy reliance on natural resources To achieve sustainable development goals, these countries require assistance from others Foreign aid, which involves the international transfer of capital, goods, or services from governments or NGOs, is crucial for enhancing prosperity in these nations Consequently, the effectiveness of foreign aid projects is a vital factor in promoting sustainable development globally.

The Vietnamese Mekong River Delta (VMD), situated in southern Vietnam, is home to approximately 17.27 million residents and spans nearly 4 million hectares Notably, 67.5% of this region is dedicated to agricultural land, highlighting its significance in the country's agricultural landscape.

The Mekong Delta is a global hotspot for climate change, facing numerous hazards such as rising sea levels, salinization, inundation, water scarcity, and shifts in temperature and precipitation These climate-induced challenges have severely impacted agricultural and aquaculture practices, undermining sustainable development in the region and prompting significant migration flows in southern Vietnam.

Vietnamese government adopted many official documents towards achieving sustainable development on both national scale and regional scale Some of them are "Viet Nam Sustainable Development Strategy for 2011-2020" (Prime Minister,

The Vietnamese government has outlined specific strategies for sustainable development through key documents such as the "National Action Plan for the Implementation of the 2030 Sustainable Development Agenda" (2012) and "Resolution number 120/NQ-CP on Sustainable and Climate-Resilient Development of the Mekong Delta" (2017) However, due to constraints in capital and human resource capacity, the government is seeking assistance from foreign resources to effectively implement these projects and activities.

Various donors, including the World Bank (WB), Asian Development Bank (ADB), Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), and Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ), have initiated Official Development Assistance (ODA) projects to aid local governments and communities in the urgent challenges faced in the VMD However, there is growing concern regarding the overall effectiveness of these foreign aid initiatives, as well as the driving forces and factors influencing their success Given the limited research and publication on these issues in the VMD, a comprehensive study is essential to better understand the dynamics at play.

The research questions and hypotheses

Table 1.1 shows the research questions and hypotheses of the study

Table 1.1: Research questions and hypothesis of the study

- What are the main issues affecting sustainable development in the past, present, and future in the Mekong Delta in Vietnam?

- Many issues are affecting sustainable development in the VMD, in which climate change is one of the main issues in the past, present and future

- How is the effectiveness of foreign aid projects for climate change response and sustainable development in the Mekong

- What are the driving forces and factors affecting foreign aid effectiveness in the VMD?

International aid projects often fail to effectively promote sustainable development in the VMD, particularly in the face of climate change This ineffectiveness stems from misaligned priorities, inadequate focus on Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and uneven financial distribution among provinces.

- Aid allocation, fund, coordination between stakeholders, law/ policy, and human resources are driving forces and factors affecting international aid effectiveness in the VMD

- How to improve the foreign aid projects' effectiveness for climate change response (CCR) and sustainable development in the VMD?

- Efforts from all stakeholders are needed for effective foreign assistance projects

- Projects should be focused on main climate change issues at present and in the future and prioritized in the most vulnerable areas to climate change in the VMD

Research objectives and tasks

The research's objectives and tasks are described in Table 1.2 h

Table 1.2: Objectives and tasks of the study

Ob1: Clarifying main issues affecting sustainable development in the past, present, and future in the

- Collecting data about natural, socio-economic features, issues in the VMD

- Collecting data about climate change scenarios, climate change impacts in the study area

- Interviewing with experts, local people

- Narrative analysis to identify central issues in the past, present, and future in the VMD

Ob2: Assessing the effectiveness of foreign aid projects for CCR and sustainable development in the VMD, and identifying driving forces and factors affecting foreign aid effectiveness in the VMD

- Collecting foreign aid projects' information in the research area

- Collecting reports on the effectiveness of finished foreign aid projects

- Collecting data of the situation before and after implementing foreign aid projects in some areas within the VMD

- Conducting interviews with experts, local people for assessing the effectiveness of aid projects from stakeholders’ point of view

- Classifying foreign aid projects based on location, fund, focusing issue, etc

- Descriptive analysis to describe the focusing issues of foreign aid projects

- Visualizing the aid projects' distribution

- Inferential analysis to assess the effectiveness of foreign aid projects

- Interviewing with experts, staff of international donors, local authorities to identify driving forces and factors affecting aid effectiveness

- Describing several case studies to investigate the effectiveness of foreign aid projects, and identify driving forces and factors affecting h

Objectives Tasks foreign aid effectiveness in the VMD

Ob3: Proposing solutions, recommendations to improve the effectiveness of foreign aid projects for CCR and sustainable development in the VMD

- Collecting data related to solutions, recommendations to improve the effectiveness of foreign aid projects for CCR and sustainable development at the international level and national level

- Interviewing with experts, staff of international donors, local authorities to propose recommendations

- Proposing solutions, recommendations after considering previous studies and conclusions

Objects and scope of the research

This research focuses on the effectiveness of foreign aid projects for CCR and sustainable development in the VMD

This research spans an eleven-year period from 2010 to 2020, focusing on foreign aid projects aimed at climate change resilience (CCR) and sustainable development within the VMD region Data collection for the study was conducted between December 2020 and May 2021.

Matrix of learning outcomes for the master's thesis

This study could lead to several results and outcome listed below:

- Result 1 (R1): Main issues affecting sustainable development in the VMD

- Result 2 (R2): Arguments on the effectiveness of foreign aid projects for CCR and sustainable development; and driving forces and factors of aid effectiveness in the VMD

- Result 3 (R3): Solutions, recommendations for the effectiveness of foreign aid projects in the VMD

- Outcome 1 (O1): References for sustainable development in the VMD h

Table 1.3: Relations between results of the Master's thesis and MCCD's

PLOs Results of the Master's thesis Other outcomes

PLO1 Accumulating and mastering general knowledge about administration and management PLO2 Mastering the fundamental, interdisciplinary knowledge to address actual problems related to CCR for sustainable development at a local level

PLO3 Identifying, analyzing, assessing, and forecasting the issues related to

PLO4 Planning and approaching the works in the field of CC;

Implementing the solutions on mechanism, policy, and finance for h

PLOs Results of the Master's thesis Other outcomes

R1 R2 R3 O1 implementing solutions for CCR and SD

PLO5 Having skills of cooperation with personal, agencies, organizations domestically and internationally PLO6 Working and researching independently; having skills of research and development

Using the necessary computer skills proficiently; working and researching independently; having abilities of research and development

Using skills of research and development to propose solutions, recommendat ions

PLO7 Being dynamic, confident, persistent, enthusiastic, and risk-taking and management

PLO8 Having a social/ community's responsibility and professional morality h

PLOs Results of the Master's thesis Other outcomes

PLO9 Having responsibility for researching

Having responsibility for researching, creating new knowledge, and offering new ideas on CCR

Literature review

This study concerns some concepts, including climate change, CCR, sustainable development, foreign aid, and aid effectiveness

Climate change refers to significant alterations in climate patterns, characterized by shifts in average conditions and variability over extended periods, often decades or more (IPCC, 2018) This phenomenon can arise from both natural processes and human activities, leading to global warming, rising sea levels, and an increase in extreme weather events (MONRE, 2016).

CCR encompasses both climate change adaptation and mitigation Climate change adaptation involves adjusting to current or anticipated climate conditions to minimize harm and capitalize on potential benefits, often facilitated by human intervention in natural systems Conversely, climate change mitigation focuses on reducing greenhouse gas emissions and enhancing carbon sinks, as outlined by the IPCC in 2018.

Sustainable development was first officially introduced by the World Commission h

The Brundtland Report (1987) defines sustainable development as the ability of humans to meet present needs without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own This concept emphasizes the importance of integrating social, economic, and environmental dimensions for long-term viability In 2015, all United Nations member states adopted 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) to guide global efforts toward sustainable development These goals include eradicating poverty (SDG1), achieving zero hunger (SDG2), ensuring good health and well-being (SDG3), providing quality education (SDG4), promoting gender equality (SDG5), ensuring clean water and sanitation (SDG6), facilitating affordable and clean energy (SDG7), fostering decent work and economic growth (SDG8), advancing industry innovation and infrastructure (SDG9), reducing inequalities (SDG10), creating sustainable cities and communities (SDG11), promoting responsible consumption and production (SDG12), taking climate action (SDG13), protecting life below water (SDG14), conserving life on land (SDG15), establishing peace, justice, and strong institutions (SDG16), and forming partnerships for the goals (SDG17).

Liberalization has enhanced the ability of needy countries to attract international assistance activities Foreign aid encompasses the international transfer of money, goods, or services from governments or international agencies to developing nations (Huang & Pascual, 2018) This aid can take various forms, including humanitarian or development assistance, and may be categorized as official, private, non-governmental, bilateral, or multilateral.

To effectively monitor aid projects aimed at achieving the Millennium Development Goals and Sustainable Development Goals, the Development Assistance Committee (DAC) of the OECD has introduced the "Five DAC Evaluation Criteria." These criteria include relevance, effectiveness, efficiency, impact, and sustainability, serving as essential guidelines for assessing the success and contributions of development initiatives.

In 2005, the OECD DAC introduced the "Five DAC Evaluation Criteria" (effectiveness, efficiency, impact, and sustainability), which were later expanded in 2019 to include "Six DAC Evaluation Criteria" (relevance, coherence, effectiveness, efficiency, impact, and sustainability) These criteria are widely recognized by thirty member countries, including Australia, Canada, Denmark, and the United States, along with six observers such as the Asian Development Bank and the United Nations Development Program The effectiveness of aid projects is measured by the extent to which their objectives are achieved, considering their importance (OECD DAC, 2019) Since 2005, various initiatives aimed at enhancing aid effectiveness have emerged, notably the Paris Declaration on Aid Effectiveness and the Busan Partnership for Effective Co-operation, which established five key principles for improving aid effectiveness.

- Ownership: Developing countries set their own development policies, strategies and coordinate development actions at all levels

- Alignment: Donors bring their support base on developing countries' strategies, institutions, and procedures

- Harmonization: To avoid redundancy, donors coordinate their actions, streamline procedures, and share information

- Managing for results: Developing countries and donors manage resources and improve decision-making for results

- Mutual accountability: Donors and developing countries are accountable for development results

Recently, in the Sustainable Development Goals Era, those principles are still restated by countries confirming the Addis Ababa Action Agenda in 2015 h

This study examines the impact of international donor aid projects on climate change resilience (CCR) and sustainable development in the Mekong Delta (VMD) It highlights various challenges, both global and local, that hinder sustainable development in the region The research will evaluate the effectiveness of foreign aid projects in contributing to sustainable development efforts within the VMD.

Many official documents have been created to orientate activities for climate-resilient and sustainable development in the VMD, particularly "Viet Nam

Figure 1.1: Analytical framework of the research

Climate Change, Sea-level Rise,

Salinization, Flood, Drought, Erosion, etc.

Hydropower dam systems in upstream

Land Subsidence, Population Growth and Migration, etc

Local capital Loans Grants Green finance

The "Sustainable Development Strategy for 2011-2020" and the "National Action Plan for the Implementation of the 2030 Sustainable Development Agenda" outline Vietnam's commitment to sustainable growth Resolution No 120/NQ-CP focuses on developing a climate-resilient Mekong Delta, while the "General Action Plan for Implementing Resolution No 120/NQ-CP" details the steps necessary for achieving these goals Additionally, the "Priority Project Evaluation Criteria under the Support Program to Respond to Climate Change (SP-RCC)" establishes guidelines for assessing projects aimed at addressing climate change impacts.

In response to the severe impacts of climate change in Vietnam, the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE) initiated the SP-RCC in 2009, with support from six international donors, including the French Development Agency and the World Bank This policy-based budget support program addresses climate change through mitigation and adaptation efforts across 12 sub-sectors involving nine ministries In 2011, the Prime Minister approved Decision No.1719/QD-TTg, establishing evaluation criteria for priority projects under the SP-RCC, emphasizing high-priority initiatives related to sea-level rise, drought, and greenhouse gas reduction, while medium-priority projects focus on flooding and erosion, and low-priority projects address rising temperatures Additionally, the decision outlines sector-specific priority levels for the Mekong Delta, as detailed in Table 1.4.

Table 1.4: Priority level by sector in the VMD

- Afforestation, reforestation of mangrove forests

- Tourism protection of watershed protection forests, special-use forests, and production forests

(Source: Decision No.1719/QD-TTg)

In 2012, the Prime Minister of Vietnam approved Decision No 432/QD-TTg, establishing the "Vietnam Sustainable Development Strategy for 2011-2020," which outlines key objectives across economic, social, and environmental dimensions This strategy introduced various indicators for monitoring sustainable development, including the Green Gross Domestic Product (GGDP), Human Development Index (HDI), and Environmental Sustainability Index (ESI) Economic indicators focus on the share of renewable energy, state budget deficits, while social indicators track poverty rates, unemployment, and access to social and health insurance Environmental indicators assess forest cover and water resource management, providing a comprehensive framework for evaluating Vietnam's progress towards sustainability during this period.

In 2017, Decision No 622/QG-TTg established Vietnam's National Action Plan for the Implementation of the 2030 Sustainable Development Agenda, outlining 17 Sustainable Development Goals and 115 targets aligned with global sustainability objectives.

Vietnam's sustainable development plan emphasizes a balanced approach across social, economic, and environmental dimensions Socially, it aligns with Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 10, aiming to eradicate poverty, ensure food security, promote health and education, achieve gender equality, and reduce inequalities Economically, the focus is on SDGs 8, 9, 11, and 12, which advocate for decent work, sustainable industrialization, resilient infrastructure, and responsible consumption Environmentally, the plan targets SDGs 6, 7, 13, 14, and 15, addressing clean water, affordable energy, climate action, life below water, and life on land.

In response to significant challenges such as climate change and unsustainable resource exploitation, the Vietnamese government introduced Resolution No.120/NQ-CP in 2017, aimed at promoting sustainable and climate-resilient development in the Mekong Delta This was further supported by Decision No.417/QD-TTg in 2019, which outlined a comprehensive action plan to implement the resolution These initiatives represent a pivotal shift towards a sustainable development strategy that integrates socio-economic growth across the region with a long-term vision, fostering inter-regional collaboration through a unified coordination mechanism Key conditions for sustainable development in the Mekong Delta include enhancing the quality of agricultural products, innovative infrastructure development to combat climate change, ensuring disaster safety, responsible natural resource management, biodiversity conservation, and improving the quality of life for residents The General Action Plan identifies six specific solution groups to achieve these goals.

To enhance the effectiveness of mechanisms and policies, it is essential to complete and improve existing systems while updating and systemizing data for stronger investigations Developing a comprehensive master plan is crucial, alongside constructing an economic framework that is resilient to climate change Additionally, investing in and upgrading infrastructure, as well as mobilizing both national and international resources, will significantly contribute to these efforts (Prime Minister, 2019).

The Vietnamese government regularly issues the Socio-economic Development Strategy and Plan, along with guidelines for the attraction, management, and use of ODA and concessional loans from foreign donors to align international assistance with development goals While the Socio-economic Development Strategy and Plan outline general socio-economic indicators, the orientation document specifically prioritizes the utilization of foreign assistance.

Table 1.5: Priority sectors in the attraction and use of ODA and preferential loans

Orientations in 2016-2020 period (Decision No.251/QD-TTg, 2016) h

1 Infrastructure: transportation, energy, irrigation, urban infrastructure, etc

2 Education & Training, Medical social sector

5 Environment and natural resource protection, CCR, Green growth

1 Infrastructure: transportation, energy, irrigation, urban infrastructure, etc., especially projects that link regions, economic centers and meet the requirements of responding to climate change and sea-level rise

2 Policies for economic, cultural, and social development and strengthening of state management capacity

4 Environment and natural resource protection, CCR, Green growth (Source: Decision No.106/QD-TTg, 2012; Decision No.251/QD-TTg, 2016) h

Study area

The Mekong Delta in Vietnam, situated in the lower Mekong Basin, features a low and flat terrain with an average elevation of approximately 0.8 meters above sea level Covering about 40,816 square kilometers, the delta represents roughly 5% of the Mekong River basin It is bordered by the Vietnam-Cambodia border to the north and the East Sea to the east.

The region encompasses the Gulf of Thailand to the west, with the Vam Co Dong River and Ho Chi Minh City located to the northwest It comprises one municipality, Can Tho City, and twelve provinces: An Giang, Dong Thap, Long An, Tien Giang, Ben Tre, Tra Vinh, Vinh Long, Hau Giang, Soc Trang, Kien Giang, Ca Mau, and Bac Lieu.

The VMD region features a dense network of rivers and canals, primarily consisting of the Tien River and the Hau River In 2018, the Tien River recorded a maximum water flow of 15,700 m³/s at the Tan Chau station, while the Hau River reached 5,220 m³/s at the Chau Doc station, according to the An Giang Statistics Office (2020) Additionally, groundwater resources are limited, typically found at a depth of 100 meters, with an estimated daily exploitable volume of around 1 million m³.

Figure 1.3: Mekong Delta in Vietnam with land use map h

(Data source used for making map: MONRE, 2018; Can Tho University, 2017)

The Mekong Delta in Vietnam is characterized by four major soil groups: alluvial soil (approximately 30.7%), acid sulfate soil (about 41.0%), saline soil (around 19.2%), and others (approximately 9.1%) (Tran, 2015) Alluvial soils, known for their high fertility, are predominantly found in the delta's center, making them ideal for cultivating rice, fruit trees, and short-term industrial crops In contrast, acid sulfate soils are primarily located in the central regions of Dong Thap Muoi and the Ca Mau Peninsula, while saline soils are prevalent near the coasts, significantly influenced by seawater during dry seasons.

Figure 1.4: Average precipitation from 1977 to 2018 in VMD (mm)

(Data source used for making map: The Southern Institute of

The VMD has a tropical monsoon climate with a dry season from December to May and a rainy season from June to November The average temperature varies from h

The Vietnam Mekong Delta (VMD) experiences a mild climate with temperatures ranging from 24⁰C to 27⁰C and minimal temperature variation between day and night This region receives significantly higher precipitation compared to other areas in Vietnam, with provinces like Kien Giang, Hau Giang, Soc Trang, Bac Lieu, and Ca Mau averaging over 1,700 mm of rainfall annually Additionally, the VMD is less susceptible to typhoons and severe weather disturbances, making its climatic conditions highly conducive for agricultural development.

The Mekong Delta in Vietnam boasts a coastline of 750 km, representing 23% of the nation's total coastline, and encompasses an exclusive economic zone of 360,000 km², which accounts for 37% of Vietnam's exclusive economic area This region features numerous large and small islands, along with over 800 hectares of intertidal zones The waters near the Mekong Delta are rich in aquatic resources and hold significant potential for tourism development, as well as the exploration of oil, gas, and wind energy.

Wetlands in the Vietnam Mekong Delta (VMD) represent some of the region's most valuable ecosystems, encompassing three distinct types: mangrove ecosystems, inland lagoon ecosystems (Melaleuca forests), and estuarine ecosystems These ecosystems are particularly sensitive and vulnerable to various environmental challenges.

In 2019, the Mekong Delta (VMD) had a total average population of 17,273,630, predominantly comprising the Kinh ethnic group According to various statistics offices, the region is also home to diverse ethnic communities, including the Khmer, Hoa, and Chams The majority of the population resides in the central part of the delta, particularly in urban areas.

24 rivers and Ho Chi Minh City (Figure 1.5) The population in the VMD has grown slowly in recent years due to the low mortality rate and migration

The Mekong Delta (VMD) is renowned for its agricultural and aquaculture contributions, producing key products such as rice, fruits, duck, Pangasius, shrimp, and crab As Vietnam's largest granary, it accounts for 48% of the nation's food production and over 85% of annual rice exports (Toan, 2014) While the region is not heavily industrialized, food processing remains its primary industry Additionally, the service sector encompasses import-export activities, water transport, and tourism.

Figure 1.5: Population density in 2019 (person/km 2 )

(Data source used for making map: General Statistics Office, 2020)

The average Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) per capita in the VMD is nearly VND 44.051 million Can Tho, Hau Giang, Bac Lieu, Tra Vinh had the h

In 2019, the highest Gross Regional Product per capita in the Vietnam Mekong Delta (VMD) ranged between VND 55 to 66 million, as reported by various provincial statistics offices The Vietnam Chamber of Commerce and Industry, along with the Fulbright School of Public Policy and Management, highlighted a significant shift in economic sectors from 2010 to 2019: agriculture, aquaculture, and forestry's share decreased from 39.6% to 28.3%, while the industrial and construction sector slightly increased to 26.4%, and the service sector surged to 44.6%.

Figure 1.6: Current status of economic structure and scale and

GRPD per capita in 2019 in VMD

(Data source used for making map: Statistics Office, 2020; Statistics Office, 2021) h

The Mekong Delta in Vietnam has only 45 km of highway, representing nearly 3% of the country's total highway length, which limits transportation efficiency (Vietnam Chamber of Commerce and Industry & Fulbright School of Public Policy and Management, 2021) The region's primary roads typically feature two car lanes and one motorbike lane per side, with some roads having even fewer lanes, resulting in restricted road capacity for goods transport and a heavy reliance on inland waterways In terms of air travel, the Mekong Delta hosts two international airports—Can Tho International Airport and Phu Quoc International Airport—alongside Ca Mau Airport and Rach Gia Airport While Phu Quoc International Airport has the highest utilization in the area, it primarily caters to tourism Overall, the transportation system in the Mekong Delta exhibits significant weaknesses in connecting to Ho Chi Minh City and the Southeast region.

Figure 1.7: Transportation in the VMD h

27 (Data source used for making map: RHDHV & GIZ, 2020) h

METHODOLOGY

Research approach

This study applied two major approaches: the sustainable development approach and the interdisciplinary approach

Sustainable development serves as a crucial strategy for nations and regions, promoting long-term harmony among economic, social, and environmental factors Aid projects must adopt a sustainable development framework to effectively assist local communities and governments in addressing challenges within the VMD Consequently, evaluating the effectiveness of foreign aid initiatives should align with sustainable development principles.

To address climate change and achieve sustainable development goals in Vietnam's Mekong Delta, a collaborative effort among all stakeholders is essential This study employs an interdisciplinary approach, drawing on insights from environmental science, climate change, infrastructure, policy, economics, and sociology to effectively tackle these pressing challenges.

Research methods

This study employed six primary methods, as outlined in Table 2.1 and Figure 2.1, to fulfill its three key objectives While each method serves distinct purposes, a combination of these approaches is essential to successfully achieve all the study's goals.

Table 2.1: Methods of the study

M1 Data collection - Review literature to define research problems

- Describe the study area, identify main issues

- Get indigenous knowledge related to climate h

Methodology Purposes change, foreign aid projects of local people

- Collect opinion of experts, staff in international aid agencies, local authorities about the effectiveness of foreign aid projects and the effectiveness's driving forces and affecting factors

M2 Data analysis - Describe opinions of interviewees

- Provide an in-depth understanding, explanation, and interpretation of significant issues and foreign aid activities

- Classify assistance projects and calculate the total number of each group to describe the situation of international aid in the 2010-2020 period

- Check the correlation between variables to assess the effectiveness of aid projects

- Identify driving forces and factors affecting aid effectiveness in the study area

- Summarize the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities & threats of the VMD

- Develop strong strategies by considering all strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats of the area M4 Statistical

- Identify the effectiveness of foreign aid projects from the perspective of local people, local government

- Identify the relationships between foreign aid transfer & the characteristics of sustainable development, climate change-related parameters

M6 Mapmaking - Describe the study area from secondary data provided by several organizations

- Visualize the distribution of foreign aid projects h

Methodology Purposes from data grouped by the data analysis method

This research used both primary and secondary data In this research, primary data

Figure 2.1: Methodological framework of the research

 Climate change issues & other issues

 Foreign aid project information (title, donor, geographic coverage, period, total cost, etc.)

 Time series data of GRDP, total amount of aid, etc

 Situation before and after implementing aid projects

 Existing priorities of donors, government

 Factors affecting the effectiveness of foreign aid projects

Ob1: Clarifying main issues affecting sustainable development in

Ob2: Assessing effectiveness of foreign aid projects; and identifying driving forces, factors affecting the effectiveness of those projects

Ob3: Proposing solutions, recommendations to improve the effectiveness of foreign aid projects

The data was gathered through semi-structured interviews conducted in December with experts, aid agency staff, authorities, and local participants or beneficiaries involved in foreign aid projects within the study area.

In 2020, a series of open-ended questions were crafted to align with research objectives prior to conducting interviews, aiming to explore climate change issues, foreign aid project details, and the situational changes pre- and post-implementation of aid projects in the VMD This research included 74 interviews, primarily conducted face-to-face, via telephone, and through email, focusing on donor and government priorities as well as factors influencing the effectiveness of foreign aid initiatives.

The secondary data for this research encompasses details from 220 foreign aid projects funded by 68 donors between 2010 and 2020 This dataset includes essential information such as project titles, donor identities, timelines, geographical coverage, total costs, objectives, and activities The data was sourced from various documents provided by the Mekong Delta Working Group, donor websites, interview findings, and reports from the Agriculture Project Management Board under the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development Additionally, records and reports from local government entities, aid organizations, the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment, the General Statistics Office, and other relevant organizations significantly contribute to this study.

Table 2.2: Secondary data of the research

Natural, socio-economic features of the VMD

Statistical yearbook of each province in VMD in 2019

Issues in the past, present, and future that affecting the VMD’s sustainable development

Journal articles, reports, records, interview results related to issues in VMD

Data types Data sources version), downscaling to the VMD Policies related to sustainable development, foreign aid projects in

Law, Decree, Circular, Decision issued by the government

Information of previous studies regarding the effectiveness of foreign aid projects

Information of aid projects in the

VMD (donor, project title, project term, location, amount of committed loan/ grant, project activities, focusing fields, etc.) in the 2010-2020 period

Website of international aid agencies, interview results

Situation before and after implementing aid projects

Results of interviews with donors, local authorities, and local people; results of some experiments

Mechanism of launching, executing aid projects

Results of interviews with donors, local authorities

Existing priorities, reasons of donors, local authorities

Driving forces, factors affecting the effectiveness of foreign aid projects

Recommendations, solutions for effective aid projects

This research employed a mixed-method approach, integrating qualitative and quantitative data analysis to achieve its objectives Qualitative methods, such as content and narrative analysis, were used to gain a deeper understanding of key issues and foreign aid activities in the VMD Additionally, quantitative analysis provided descriptive insights into foreign aid projects and assessed the correlation between total aid transfers and climate change responses.

The analysis of aid allocation involved categorizing aid projects based on their geographical coverage and aligning them with Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and climate change-related issues This classification also considered the specific objectives, activities, and tasks outlined in the projects' titles, as detailed in Table 2.3.

Table 2.3: CCR options to classify adaptation projects

- Improve the status of education, nutrition, health, settlements

- Reduce gender inequality Poverty alleviation

- Improve access & management of local resources

- Social protection, Insurance Livelihood security

- Diversify income, asset, and livelihood

- Change cropping, livestock, and aquaculture practices Disaster risk management

- Build & improve early warning system, vulnerability map

- Diversify resources, improve infrastructure Ecosystem management

- Protect and manage forest, watershed & reservoir

- Community-based adaptation Spatial or land-use planning

To foster comprehensive change, it is essential to enhance engineered and built-environment solutions, leverage advanced technological options, and promote ecosystem-based services Institutional improvements should focus on refining economic strategies, updating laws and regulations, and optimizing national and government policies and programs Additionally, social advancements must prioritize educational initiatives, enhance access to information, and encourage positive behavioral changes across communities.

- Increase innovation, shifts and changes consistent with CCR and sustainable development

No identifying information of individuals, aid organizations were reported in this h

34 study Instead, some pseudonyms were used to ensure the research’s objectivity

Analyzing the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats (SWOT) of the VMD is crucial for informed decision-making and addressing challenges This study highlights internal factors such as natural features, socio-economic conditions, human resources, production methods, and local management, alongside external influences like government policies, funding, regional connections, hydropower systems, land subsidence, and global warming These elements collectively inform the opportunities and threats faced by the delta, providing a comprehensive understanding of its current situation.

This study employed Cross-SWOT analysis to develop actionable strategies for the sustainable development of VMD Specifically, it identified four key strategies by examining the interconnections between the different quadrants of the SWOT framework.

Table 2.4: Strategies under Cross-SWOT analysis

Offensive Strategy: Use internal strengths to maximize opportunities

Strengthening Strategy: Improve weaknesses by taking advantage of opportunities Threats

Confrontation Strategy: Use strengths to minimize threats

Defense Strategy: Act to eliminate weaknesses to avoid threats

Statistical analysis is essential for collecting and organizing data to derive meaningful interpretations This research provides insights into aid projects by categorizing them based on their geographical coverage, relevant Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and climate impact.

This article explores 35 response options to climate change issues in the VMD, summarizing interviewees' insights It also details the variables used in the Pearson’s Correlation Coefficient Test, including mean and standard deviation, as outlined in Table 2.5.

Table 2.5: Formula of mean, standard deviation

Mean (μ) ∑ n: sample size x i : value of variable from 1 to n Standard deviation

This study analyzed panel data from ten variables to explore the relationship between aid transfer and nine other variables linked to various Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) These variables were selected based on previous research, their relevance to significant issues in the Mekong Delta (VMD), and their availability Data was sourced from the statistical yearbook of 13 provinces in the VMD covering the years 2010 to 2020, with calculations performed by the author and additional information obtained from https://pcivietnam.vn/en The annual cost of international aid projects in each province was estimated on the premise that donors provided a consistent annual amount throughout the project's duration.

Table 2.6: Used variables in Correlation Coefficient Test

Code of variable Variable Unit Related

X Total cost of foreign aid mil Self-calculated from h

Code of variable Variable Unit Related

SDGs Source projects VND collected projects' information

Y1 Percentage of poor households % SDG1 Statistical yearbook

Y2 Under-5-year children malnutrition rate % SDG2 Statistical yearbook Y3 Under-1-year mortality rate % SDG3 Statistical yearbook

Y4 Percentage of solid classroom % SDG4 Statistical yearbook

Y5 Percentage of over-15-year old trained female workers % SDG5 Statistical yearbook

Y6 Proportion of households using hygienic water % SDG6 Statistical yearbook

Index SDG9 https://pcivietnam.v n/en

Y9 Total value of the damage caused by natural disasters mil

The Pearson's Correlation Coefficient Tests assess the statistical relationship between two continuous variables, making it an effective method for analyzing the association between variables of interest due to its foundation in covariance.

In this study, the Pearson's Correlation Coefficient Test was conducted based on the below function in R statistics: cor.test(xs ,ys ,method = "pearson") Which xs, ys are paired samples

The above function returns a value for a correlation coefficient (r) between -1 and 1 Regarding the level of correlation, Evan (1996) suggested five levels for the h

In this research, the null hypothesis (H0) posits that the two variables are independent, while the alternative hypothesis (H1) suggests a statistically significant relationship between them A p-value below 0.05 indicates strong evidence against the null hypothesis, signifying statistical significance Conversely, a p-value exceeding 0.05 implies that the null hypothesis cannot be rejected.

This study employed ArcMap 10.8 to effectively visualize the study area and its associated issues, facilitating aid allocation Data from both primary and secondary sources were normalized and aligned within the same geographic coordinate system, then stored in an attribute table for mapping purposes Initially, a base map was constructed using land borders, provincial boundaries, and Esri’s Ocean Basemap Subsequently, additional maps were generated utilizing secondary data from various reputable sources, including Can Tho University and the Southern Institute of Water Resources Research, to illustrate the natural and social characteristics of the VMD To enhance the visualization of aid distribution, information on international aid projects was aggregated and categorized into five distinct levels during the data analysis phase.

OVERVIEW OF ISSUES IN THE VMD

Climate change and climate change impacts

The Vietnam Maritime Domain (VMD) has already felt the effects of climate change, with a study by MONRE (2016) indicating a rise in annual average temperatures across most observational stations and a 6.9% increase in yearly rainfall from 1958 to 2014 Additionally, mean sea levels at tide gauges have risen, with Phu Quoc experiencing an increase of 3.4 mm per year between 1986 and 2014 These trends are expected to persist, resulting in altered weather patterns characterized by intensified droughts, floods, saline water intrusion, and increased coastal and river erosion.

According to the RCP8.5 scenario, average sea levels along the eastern and western coasts of the VMD are projected to rise by 73cm and 75cm, respectively, by the end of the 21st century (MONRE, 2016) This increase in sea level can result in severe erosion, saline intrusion, and habitat loss for various species, including fish, birds, and plants Additionally, elevated sea levels contribute to higher storm surges in coastal areas, exacerbating the impact of tides and large waves during extreme weather events.

Figure 3.1: Sea-level rise scenarios based on the RCP8.5 scenario (cm)

Sea-level rise scenarios based on the RCP8.5 scenario (cm)

Year Mui Ke Ga - Mui Ca Mau Mui Ca Mau - Kien Giang h

Figure 3.2: The inundation risk map with sea-level rise of 100 cm

Moreover, sea-level rise caused by climate change also increases the inundation risk in the VMD According to MONRE's estimation in 2016, if the sea level rises by

100 cm, roughly 38.9% of the VMD would be at risk of flooding Three provinces that have the highest inundation risk are Hau Giang (80.62%), Kien Giang (76.9%), and Ca Mau (57.7%) (Table 3.1, Figure 3.2)

Table 3.1: Inundation Percentage (% area) corresponding to sea-level rise of 100 cm)

Province/ Area Inundation Percentage (% area)

The VMD, despite its high annual average precipitation, faces increasing drought vulnerability due to factors such as the prolonged El Niño phenomenon, reduced precipitation, and upstream hydropower dams in the Mekong Basin Research by Lee & Dang (2018) highlights that meteorological droughts shifted from the northeastern and northwestern provinces between 1995-2004 to southern coastal areas from 2005-2014, with a notable increase in the spatial distribution of moderate and severe droughts During dry seasons, especially amid droughts, seawater intrusion from estuaries on both coasts exacerbates the situation This saline intrusion is attributed to riverbed mining, dam construction, rising sea levels, and land subsidence (Ho et al., 2021).

Figure 3.3: Map of 4g/l isohaline from 2013 to 2019 in the VMD

(Data source for making map: Institute of Water Resources Research, 2013-2019)

Between 2011 and 2020, the Mekong Delta region (VMD) experienced two significant drought and saline intrusion events, notably in 2015-2016 and 2019-2020 The 2015-2016 drought impacted over 2 million hectares across 12 of the 13 provinces in the VMD, leading to an estimated economic loss of around USD 650 million, as reported by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) The subsequent event in 2019-2020 affected 10 out of 13 provinces and was deemed more damaging, with approximately 1.7 million hectares (about 42.5%) of the VMD's natural area impacted, which is an increase of 50,000 hectares compared to the earlier event.

2016 (see 4g/l isohaline in 2016 on Figure 3.3) (Thanh Phong, 2020)

Table 3.2: Effects of 2019-2020 drought & saline intrusion

43 saline intrusion affected population impossible to harvest

419 km 2 ≈ 1.3% rice area (winter-spring crop)

260 km 2 (winter-spri ng crop)

Ca Mau, Tra Vinh, Tien Giang, Soc Trang, Kien Giang, Long An

Long An, Tien Giang, Ben Tre, Vinh Long, Tra Vinh, Soc Trang

Long An, Tien Giang, Ben Tre, Tra Vinh, Soc Trang, Ca Mau

Ben Tre, Tien Giang, Kien Giang, Bac Lieu, Ca Mau

Ben Tre, Soc Trang, Kien Giang,

Ca Mau, Bac Lieu, Long An, Tra Vinh

An, Ca Mau, Kien Giang, Vinh Long (Source: Thanh Phong, 2020)

Flooding in the Vietnam Mekong Delta (VMD) is primarily caused by upstream rainfall, heavy precipitation in the delta itself, and tidal influences from the East Sea Climate change is exacerbating flood risks through rising sea levels and an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events Statistical data indicates that since 2010, the region has experienced one extreme flood in 2011, three medium floods in 2013, 2014, and 2018, along with several smaller flood events.

In 2021, a simulation map by Royal HaskoningDHV and GIZ revealed that Dong Thap and An Giang provinces are at the highest risk of severe flooding, with a 10% frequency of inundation Climate change, rising sea levels, high tides, and upstream dyke construction, coupled with land subsidence, exacerbate flooding issues in the Mekong Delta, particularly in urban areas Can Tho city, with its older streets ranging from 1.6 to 2 meters in height, frequently experiences flooding due to tidal effects and extreme rainfall, while only a few newly constructed or upgraded roads exceed current flood levels.

The Mekong Delta in Vietnam, particularly the Long Xuyen Quadrangle, is a vital food source in Southeast Asia that relies heavily on seasonal flooding These floods play a crucial role by depositing sediment onto fertile fields and transporting fish and aquatic species to lower areas of the Mekong Basin, while also preventing saltwater intrusion However, human activities such as riverbed mining and dyke construction have significantly reduced the frequency of these floods (Park et al., 2020) Observations from the Dong Thap Centre of Hydro-Meteorology Forecasting indicate that water levels in mid-August 2019 were 0.5 to 2 meters lower than in the same period in 2018, adversely impacting the livelihoods of local farmers.

Abnormal floods pose a significant challenge in the Mekong Delta, as noted by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (2018) Typically, flooding occurs in two main phases: the early season, peaking in mid-August, followed by a gradual decline and a subsequent rise in early to mid-September, and the main season, which peaks around mid-October Notably, in 2018, the early-season flood reached its highest point at the end of August.

August, and the main season flood peaked in the early of October

Figure 3.4: Simulation map of the flood situation with a frequency of 10%

3.1.4 Coastal erosion and river erosion

Between 2010 and 2020, GIZ reported approximately 120 eroded locations in the VMD, with 25 coastal sites (around 94.5 km) deemed extremely dangerous due to threats to dyke safety and damage to residential areas and essential infrastructure in Kien Giang, Ca Mau, Bac Lieu, Soc Trang, Ben Tre, and Tien Giang Additionally, 27 riverine sites spanning 56 km were classified as extremely hazardous in An Giang, Dong Thap, Long An, Can Tho, Tien Giang, Hau Giang, Soc Trang, and Ben Tre.

Figure 3.5: Erosion sites from 2010-2020 in the VMD

(Data source for making map: GIZ, 2020)

Coastal erosion has significantly increased in recent years, with a land loss rate of approximately 2.3 km² per year from 2003 to 2012, surpassing the historical rate of 1.2 km² per year recorded between 1885 and 1985 (Anthony et al., 2015) Key contributors to this erosion include rising tides, intensified wave action due to climate change, deforestation in coastal regions, and diminished sediment transfer from upper basins Additionally, river erosion is exacerbated by factors such as flooding, heavy rainfall during the wet season, sand mining, increased river traffic, and the weight of infrastructure along riverbanks (Anthony et al., 2015; Nguyen, 2020).

3.1.5 Sustainable development in the context of climate change in the VMD

Climate change in the Vietnam Mekong Delta (VMD) is intricately linked to thirteen Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), highlighting its impact on critical areas such as poverty alleviation (SDG1), food security (SDG2), health and well-being (SDG3), quality education (SDG4), and gender equality (SDG5).

The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) encompass essential areas for global progress, including SDG6, which focuses on ensuring clean water and sanitation; SDG7, aimed at providing affordable and clean energy; SDG8, which promotes decent work and economic growth; SDG9, emphasizing industry innovation and infrastructure; SDG11, dedicated to fostering sustainable cities and communities; SDG13, which calls for urgent climate action; SDG14, focused on preserving life below water; and SDG15, aimed at protecting life on land.

Climate change significantly impacts agricultural production, leading to drought and salinization that diminish farmers' income and exacerbate poverty and hunger, particularly for low-income families As a result, many individuals are forced to abandon their farms and migrate to urban areas in search of employment (Nguyen et al., 2020) Additionally, drought and saline intrusion reduce the availability of safe and affordable water, especially during the dry season in coastal regions, which adversely affects local ecosystems Furthermore, coastal erosion contributes to the annual loss of approximately 3,400 hectares of mangrove forests.

Ca Mau in recent years (JICA, 2019) Increasing temperature and humidity has a close relationship with increased hospitalization for diarrhoeal disease (Phung et al.,

Erosion and typhoons significantly damage regional infrastructures, including homes, roads, and schools, hindering economic development and human well-being Climate change exacerbates gender inequality in the VMD, as highlighted by the German Agency for Technical Cooperation and the Australian Agency for International Development (2010), which noted that climate-related agricultural and aquaculture failures disproportionately affect poor and landless women by depleting natural resources and reducing wage labor opportunities In affected areas, erosion not only destroys homes and shrimp ponds but also forces families to find alternative housing and employment, increasing the burden on women to support their families Additionally, these challenges are intensified by escalating health concerns, sanitation issues, and a scarcity of clean freshwater.

On the other hand, poverty reduction, hunger eradication, good health, good h

Education and economic growth enhance local access to resources, increasing adaptive capacity and reducing sensitivity to climate change Sustainable cities and resilient infrastructure further bolster adaptability to climate impacts Protecting and restoring ecosystems, particularly forests, boosts carbon storage and aids in climate change mitigation Moreover, the VMD is rich in renewable energy sources like wind and solar power, with their efficient utilization being crucial for combating climate change.

Upstream reservoir and water transfer

Figure 3.6: Location Map of Present and Future Hydropower Dams in Lower Mekong Basin

The Lower Mekong Basin is experiencing a surge in hydropower dam construction to meet the growing energy demands, with a total of 38 existing dams across its tributaries Currently, two major dams, the Xayaburi Dam and Don Sahong Dam in Lao PDR, are operational, while 20 additional tributary dams are under construction Furthermore, plans are underway for nine more mainstream hydropower dams, as reported by JICA.

2019) The mainstream dams would generate an average reservoir area of 132 km 2 , two times the average reservoir area of the tributary dams The upstream h

The construction of 50 hydropower dams and reservoirs disrupts the natural flood-drought cycle of rivers, leading to reduced water flows in the Lower Mekong Basin This alteration exacerbates the effects of climate change, resulting in severe environmental and human health consequences (Golden et al., 2019; Phung et al., 2021).

Land subsidence

Figure 3.7: Land subsidence rate (cm/year) in the VMD

(Data source for making map: GIZ & GSAT, 2019)

Land subsidence, characterized by the gradual settling or sudden sinking of the Earth's surface, is a significant issue in Vietnam, particularly in delta regions like the Mekong Delta (VMD) The average subsidence rate in the VMD has reached approximately 1.1 cm per year, surpassing the average rate of 18 cm over 25 years recorded between 1991 and 2015 (Minderhoud et al., 2017) Areas such as An Giang and eastern Kien Giang experience minimal subsidence, while regions in southern Kien Giang, Can Tho, Long An, Tien Giang, Vinh Long, Tra Vinh, Ben Tre, and Dong Thap report subsidence rates ranging from 1 to 4 cm.

Mau, Bac Lieu, Hau Giang, and Soc Trang provinces face significant land subsidence rates exceeding 4 cm, which heightens their vulnerability to sea-level rise This phenomenon exacerbates risks of inundation, storm surges, salinization, and erosion in the Mekong Delta (VMD) Additionally, land subsidence poses a threat to local infrastructure, leading to substantial economic losses for residents.

Land subsidence in Vietnam's Mekong Delta is driven by a combination of natural factors, such as consolidation, sea-level rise, salinization, and geological tectonics, alongside human activities including groundwater extraction and the construction of dykes, dams, and large-scale infrastructure Recent studies indicate that groundwater extraction is a major contributor to this subsidence issue (Minderhoud et al., 2017).

Land use land cover change

Figure 3.8: Land use and land cover classification map in VMD

Human activities have significantly altered land use and land cover in the Mekong Delta over recent decades, primarily for economic development Research by Liu et al (2020), utilizing nearly 40 years of satellite imagery, reveals an increase in aquaculture and residential areas, while crop fields, fruit orchards, mangroves, forests, and unused land have all diminished from 1979 to 2015 This transformation, particularly the conversion of rice fields into aquaculture ponds, has positioned aquaculture as the second largest land use in the region.

The transformation of 52 land-use types in the VMD is essential for helping local communities adapt to the challenges posed by climate change However, this change does not align with existing local land use policies Additionally, the establishment of aquaculture ponds poses a risk of water pollution, which could adversely impact nearby rice fields and potentially threaten future food security.

Deforestation is a significant concern in the VMD, particularly in Ca Mau province, where forests provide crucial ecosystem services vital for sustainable development goals While reforestation efforts initiated in the 1990s have helped mitigate deforestation linked to aquaculture, approximately 3,400 hectares of forest are lost annually due to coastal erosion in Ca Mau (JICA, 2019) Furthermore, illegal logging for construction and firewood exacerbates the deforestation issue in the region.

Population growth and migration

Figure 3.9: Natural population growth rate & Net migration rate in the VMD

(Data source: gso.gov.vn) Vietnam's total population increased at an annual average of 1.1%, while the VMD's

Year Natural population growth rate (%) Net migration rate (‰) h

Between 2010 and 2020, the population of the Mekong Delta increased marginally from 17.2 million to 17.3 million, marking a growth rate of only 0.58% Since 2015, the region's natural population growth rates have remained below 0.06% The Mekong Delta Economic Report indicates that from 2009 to 2019, the region experienced the lowest immigration rate in Vietnam at 4.9%, while outward migration reached a staggering 44.8% Notably, Soc Trang, Tra Vinh, and An Giang provinces exhibited higher emigration rates compared to others If these trends persist, experts predict that the Mekong Delta's population could drop below 17 million by 2030, significantly impacting the future labor force.

Figure 3.10: The migration rate (%) in 2019 and the change in population between 2009 and 2019

(Data source for making map: General Statistics Office, 2020)

Climate change-related issues and other environmental issues such as droughts, landslides, and pollution are the primary reasons for the fall of the population Still, h

Economic inefficiencies and inadequate infrastructure, particularly underdeveloped road systems, hinder inter-province connectivity and limit urbanization, ultimately restricting the region's capacity to attract foreign investment.

Other issues

In January 2021, interviews with local authorities in the Mekong Delta revealed critical environmental issues, including soil quality degradation and pollution The excessive use of machinery, chemical fertilizers, and plant protection products has diminished soil's water retention and microbial activity, leading to decreased productivity Furthermore, pollution from unsustainable production practices and residential waste significantly impacts local health and tourism For instance, emissions from factories like cane sugar plants in Hau Giang and cattle feed manufacturers in Tien Giang contaminate air and water, posing health risks Additionally, slash-and-burn agriculture contributes to air pollution, with large quantities of straw and debris burned during harvest, increasing PM2.5 levels The construction of dykes further exacerbates contamination by restricting water flow, while waste disposal issues persist, particularly on islands in Kien Giang province.

Sub-conclusion

The VMD is a vast delta rich in water resources, making it ideal for agriculture and aquaculture However, the region faces challenges, as local communities prioritize economic growth and often resort to unsustainable production practices Additionally, there is insufficient integration in planning and development efforts.

The VMD region has attracted 55 investments, driven by government initiatives and the shared interests of local communities However, despite receiving considerable attention from both the state government and foreign donors, the area is threatened by climate change, challenges from upstream countries in the Mekong Basin, and issues related to land subsidence.

Table 3.3: Strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats of the VMD

- S1: Having a large delta with abundant water resources

- S3: Having the long river civilization

- W2: Low population growth rate and high migration rate

- W3: Lack of linkage in planning, investment

- O1: Receiving much attention from experts, the state government, domestic organizations and international organizations

- T1: Global threats: climate change, sea-level rise

- T2: Outside threats: hydropower dam systems in the upper stream

- T3: Inside threats: erosion, flood, drought, saline intrusion, land subsidence, soil quality degradation, soil – water – air pollution

The Cross-SWOT analysis outlined in Table 3.4 offers targeted strategies to enhance the VMD's circumstances Key strategies include increasing investments in sustainable agriculture and aquaculture, focusing on research and investment for green growth and sustainable development, and prioritizing the protection and conservation of ecosystems.

56 following appropriate guidelines, assistance, (5) coordinating, cooperating with all stakeholders at all scales

Table 3.4: Actionable strategies in the VMD

- S1O1, S3O1: Investing more in sustainable agriculture and aquaculture, asking for more technical assistance

- S2O1: Establishing ecological conservation areas to attract more attention

- W1O1: Following guidelines, technical assistance from experts, the state government, international organizations to understand and apply sustainable productions

- W3O1, W4O1: Cooperating with experts, line departments, other provinces in the VMD, other regions for better management and linkage

Harnessing the advantages of forests and resilient flora and fauna is essential in addressing climate change and its effects, including saline intrusion and erosion Implementing afforestation and reforestation initiatives can significantly enhance carbon storage and help stabilize coastal soil, promoting environmental sustainability.

- W1T1, W1T3: Investing, researching to improve effectiveness, the efficiency of low-carbon and eco-friendly manufacturing processes

- W3T2: Actively coordinate with other countries in the Mekong Basin, enhancing the application of renewable energy sources with less negative regional economic impacts

Sustainable development in the Vietnam Mekong Delta (VMD) is significantly influenced by various factors, including climate change, upstream hydropower dams, and changes in land use and cover Climate change poses critical challenges such as rising sea levels, increased drought, salinization, flooding, and erosion, which are among the most pressing issues affecting the region's sustainability.

Table 3.5: Serious climate change-related issues and most affected provinces in the past ten years & present, and in the future

Climate change-related issues Most affected provinces Past ten years and present

1 Drought & Salinization Ca Mau, Kien Giang, Bac Lieu

2 Coastal & River erosion Ca Mau, Kien Giang, An Giang,

3 Flood An Giang, Dong Thap, Can Tho

1 Sea-level rise Hau Giang, Kien Giang, Ca Mau

2 Drought & Salinization Ca Mau, Kien Giang, Bac Lieu, Soc

Trang, Tra Vinh, Ben Tre

3 Coastal & River erosion Ca Mau, Kien Giang, An Giang,

Dong Thap, Ben Tre (Source: classified by author)

Over the past decade, the Mekong Delta in Vietnam has faced significant climate change challenges, primarily drought and saline intrusion, particularly impacting the provinces of Ca Mau, Kien Giang, and Bac Lieu Additionally, coastal and riverine erosion in regions such as Ca Mau, Kien Giang, An Giang, Dong Thap, and Ben Tre poses urgent concerns that require immediate attention alongside the ongoing issues of flooding.

In the future, rising sea levels pose a significant threat to coastal regions, particularly the west coast of the Mekong Delta, including An Giang, Dong Thap, and Can Tho city, necessitating increased attention and proactive measures to address these challenges.

Based on prior analysis, the VMD is categorized into three distinct areas influenced by climate change: Area I (upper area), Area II (middle area), and Area III (coastal area) Each area faces specific climate change challenges, as outlined in Table 3.6 Future projections indicate that sea-level rise will alter these regional divisions, resulting in an expansion of Area III.

58 move deep inland (Figure 3.11 and Figure 3.12)

Table 3.6: Descriptions of sub-regions in the VMD

Regional division Location Serious climate change-related issues

- River erosion Area II Middle

- Saline intrusion in dry seasons

- Sea-level rise & storm surges (especially in the future) (Source: divided by author)

Figure 3.11: Regional division for the past ten years and present

Figure 3.12: Regional division in future

THE EFFECTIVENESS OF FOREIGN AID PROJECTS FOR

The status of foreign aid projects from 2010-2020 in the VMD

Investment in the Vietnam Mekong Delta (VMD) is sourced from various funds, including local revenue, lottery funds, the central budget, ODA, and more, with the government budget covering a significant portion of the total investment However, international support plays a crucial role in ensuring sustainable development in the region, especially amid rising global, regional, and internal challenges Various international donors implement strategies aligned with Vietnam's policies on sustainable development and green growth For instance, Donor W focuses on inclusive growth, private sector participation, environmental sustainability, and governance Donor Kf emphasizes sustainable transformation through renewable energy, climate change mitigation, and biodiversity protection Donor J's initiatives revolve around enhancing economic growth, improving living standards, conserving the environment, and strengthening governance Meanwhile, Donor S promotes ecological agriculture, local product processing, and connections between rural and urban communities.

Over the past eleven years, 68 international organizations have invested approximately USD 2.74 billion in 220 projects aimed at promoting sustainable development for governments and local communities worldwide.

Support for sustainable development in the VMD has shown an upward trend, with total aid transfer reaching USD 281.62 million in 2020—more than double the amount from 2010 While there was a significant increase in total support from 2010 to 2016, the growth rate moderated from 2016 to 2020.

Figure 4.1: Total aid transfer during 2010-2020 in the VMD

Figure 4.2: Total aid transfer by province in the 2010-2020 period in the VMD

Between 2010 and 2020, the total cost of international aid projects in Can Tho, An Giang, and Dong Thap ranged from USD 351 to 600 million, making them the highest recipients in the Mekong Delta region Meanwhile, Ben Tre, Soc Trang, Bac Lieu, and Tra Vinh received significant aid, totaling between USD 151 and 350 million over the same period In contrast, Hau Giang, Vinh Long, and Long An received the least funding, with amounts falling below USD 100 million over the 11 years.

Figure 4.3: Total aid transfer by SDGs during 2010-2020

Assistant agencies primarily directed their financial support towards achieving several Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), including SDG1 (no poverty), SDG8 (decent work and economic growth), SDG9 (industry, innovation and infrastructure), SDG10 (reduced inequalities), SDG11 (sustainable cities and communities), SDG12 (responsible consumption and production), SDG13 (climate action), SDG16 (peace, justice, and strong institutions), and SDG17 (partnerships for the goals) Among these, climate action, industry, innovation and infrastructure, reduced inequalities, and no poverty received the most substantial backing from foreign donors, with aid transfers totaling approximately USD 2,705.72 million for SDG13, USD 1,993.09 million for SDG9, USD 1,875.63 million for SDG10, and USD 1,856.20 million for SDG1 While most of these goals are significantly influenced by climate change, SDG10 stands out as an exception To align with Resolution No 120/NQ-CP and effectively achieve the SDGs in the VMD, it is crucial for donors to increase their investments in SDG2, SDG3, SDG4, SDG5, SDG6, SDG7, SDG14, and SDG15.

Table 4.1: Total number and cost of aid projects by CCR options

No Category Number of projects

Total cost of aid projects (million USD)

1.6 Spatial or land-use planning 16 1,048.92

International donors prioritize climate change response in their projects within Vietnam's Mekong Delta, with approximately 96.93% of total aid transfers—around USD 2,659.73 million—focused on climate change adaptation This aid predominantly supports structural improvements, land-use planning, and livelihood security While efforts are concentrated on enhancing protection structures, land zoning, and modifying agricultural practices, only 7.95% of the total aid is allocated for climate change mitigation initiatives Mitigation projects in the region include reforestation, afforestation, and energy consumption reduction.

The allocation of loans and grants for climate action in Vietnam's Mekong Delta has been uneven, with Can Tho, An Giang, and Dong Thap receiving the largest amounts of assistance Coastal provinces such as Ben Tre, Soc Trang, Tra Vinh, Bac Lieu, Tien Giang, Ca Mau, and Kien Giang follow in terms of aid distribution.

Giang) Long An, Vinh Long, and Hau Giang got fewer loans/ grants, less than USD 100 million per province during the whole period (Figure 4.4)

Figure 4.4: Total aid transfer for climate action during 2010-2020

The comparison of international support and public expenditure on climate and green growth in the VMD reveals both notable similarities and differences Primarily, climate change adaptation emerged as the central goal for public investment aimed at addressing climate challenges and promoting green growth in the region However, there were very few public projects dedicated to mitigation efforts Additionally, between 2015 and 2017, the majority of public projects mirrored international initiatives, focusing predominantly on structural and physical solutions such as transportation, urban development, irrigation systems, and river and coastal protection, as well as water resource management.

Figure 4.5: Climate change & green growth public investment share by theme in the VMD in the 2015-2017 period

Public expenditure and investment in the VMD have been disproportionately allocated, with An Giang and Tien Giang receiving significantly lower funding for climate change response and green growth initiatives, particularly between 2015 and 2017 (GIZ & UNDP).

In 2018, An Giang emerged as a province that significantly benefited from international donor support, highlighting the crucial role of foreign aid in mitigating public investment disparities across the region.

Between 2010 and 2020, the total international grants and loans for climate change-related projects in the VMD highlighted significant issues such as drought and salinization, which predominantly impacted the local population Despite the broader area affected by drought and salinization, more financial support was allocated to flood and river erosion projects Furthermore, although the number of projects addressing drought and saline intrusion exceeded those for flood and river erosion, the individual grants and loans for drought and saline intrusion were comparatively smaller.

Planning Electricity DRR Urban Transport Waste Agriculture Forestry Health Irrigation Water h

Over the 2010-2020 period, Ben Tre, Tra Vinh, and Soc Trang attracted from USD

The government allocated between USD 151 million to USD 200 million in aid for drought and salinization to the top three provinces, with Ca Mau and Can Tho following closely behind in receiving foreign assistance Despite being among the most affected areas, Kien Giang and Bac Lieu received significantly less support, with loans and grants ranging from USD 51 million to USD 100 million per province.

Figure 4.6: Foreign aid for climate change-related issues during 2010-2020

Concerning erosion, the top three provinces that attracted aid moved to Can Tho,

An Giang and Dong Thap have secured total loans and grants ranging from USD 201 to 440 million each, while provinces like Ca Mau and Kien Giang, which face significant erosion challenges, receive considerably less, with total loans and grants between USD 51 and 100 million per province.

The same situation was also found in sea-level rise related projects Ben Tre, Soc Trang, Tra Vinh, Bac Lieu, and Can Tho were provinces with the highest loans/

Total cost in the 2010-2020 period

Total cost (mil USD) Total number of aid projects h

A total of 68 grants addressing sea-level rise, each ranging from USD 101 to 200 million per province, have been allocated Despite predictions that Ca Mau, Kien Giang, and Hau Giang will be the most affected provinces in the future, the combined aid projects for these areas remain relatively low, with each receiving less than USD 100 million.

The location of loans/ grants regarding flood is likely consistent with the vulnerable level of flood in provinces An Giang, Dong Thap, and Can Tho received from USD

201 – 400 million per province, the highest loans/ grants level for solving flood issue (Figure 4.9)

Figure 4.7: Total aid for drought & salinization by province during 2010-2020

Figure 4.8: Total aid for erosion by province during 2010-2020

Figure 4.9: Total aid for flood by province during 2010-2020

Figure 4.10: Total aid for sea-level rise by province during 2010-2020

The allocation of aid among provinces in the VMD is imbalanced, with severely affected areas receiving insufficient loans and grants to address critical issues such as drought, saline intrusion, erosion, and sea-level rise.

The effectiveness of foreign aid projects

This study evaluates the effectiveness of international aid interventions in the VMD by examining their impact on the region's sustainable development goals Successful projects not only contribute to these goals but also assist local communities and governments in addressing critical challenges such as climate change, water scarcity, and land-use changes.

4.2.1 Characteristic of aid effectiveness principles in the VMD

As introduced in the first chapter, the five principles of aid effectiveness are h

The principles of ownership, alignment, and harmonization are crucial for effective management and mutual accountability, as highlighted by the OECD in 2008 While it may be challenging to pinpoint case studies illustrating the last two principles, insights into the first three can be gathered through narrative reviews and interviews.

The Vietnamese government demonstrates its commitment to sustainable development through various strategic initiatives, including the Sustainable Development Strategy (Decision No.432/QD-TTg, 2012) and the National Action Plan for the 2030 Sustainable Development Agenda (Decision No.622/QD-TTg, 2017) It actively collaborates with donors at both national and provincial levels, hosting conferences such as those focused on the Mekong Delta's sustainable development and climate change adaptation These events facilitate engagement among line ministries, development partners, and foreign assistance agencies, allowing the government to outline its sustainable development project needs, streamline investment procedures, gather feedback, and enhance relationships with donors across thirteen provinces in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta.

Donors also bring their support following Vietnam’s strategies, institutions, and procedures (principle “alignment”) In the Mekong Delta Conference 2021, on behalf of Development Partners’ Mekong Delta Working Group, the country h

Ms C, the director of Donor W, highlighted that since 2015, donors have contributed approximately USD 2.2 billion for initiatives in the VMD, primarily aligned with Resolution No 120/NQ-CP This funding supports ambitious pilot projects and substantial infrastructure investments, in partnership with government officials, aimed at enhancing climate resilience, sustainability, and prosperity for citizens and regions Additionally, all donor loans and grants are governed by Decree No 16/2016/ND-CP and the current Decree No 56/2020/ND-CP, which regulate the management and utilization of ODA concessional loans from foreign donors.

Harmonization among donors and development partners involves sharing information, aligning commitments, and coordinating actions within the VMD The Mekong Delta Working Group (MDWG) was formed in August to facilitate these efforts.

In 2015, the Vietnamese government and Development Partners initiated efforts to improve climate resilience through enhanced coordination and coherence Co-chaired by the World Bank and Germany, the MDWG meetings occur every two to three months, welcoming all Development Partners focused on sustainable development in the delta Notably, the MDWG has effectively reduced project duplication and facilitated the sharing of local project implementation experiences among donors.

Table 4.2 presents a comprehensive overview of various variables, highlighting that some lack observed values due to statistical data limitations Notably, several variables exhibit significant variation in their range, including the total cost of foreign aid projects (X), the percentage of solid classrooms (Y4), the percentage of trained female workers over the age of 15 (Y5), the proportion of households utilizing hygienic water (Y6), GRDP per capita (Y7), and the total damage value from natural disasters (Y9).

The analysis reveals that various factors, such as the percentage of impoverished households, the malnutrition rate among children under five, the mortality rate for infants under one year, and the Province Competitiveness Index, exhibit a narrow range, with the difference between the minimum and maximum values being less than 30 units.

Table 4.2: Descriptive statistics of variables

Variable Observations Mean Standard deviation Min Max

Table 4.3: Result of Pearson's Correlation Coefficient Test

Figure 4.11: Graphs depicting the value distribution of X & each Y

Table 4.3 presents the findings from Pearson’s Correlation Coefficient Test, highlighting a moderate positive correlation between aid transfer and the percentage of solid classrooms In contrast, the relationships between the amount of aid and other variables are predominantly weak, such as the correlation between total aid transfer and the under-1-year mortality rate, as well as the proportion of households using hygienic water The remaining pairs of variables exhibit very weak correlations.

Figure 4.11 illustrates the value distribution of X in relation to each Y The p-values from the tests indicate that only the relationships between X and Y3, X and Y4, and X and Y8 are statistically significant, with p-values less than 0.05 This provides strong evidence of a significant relationship between aid transfer and (1) the under-1-year mortality rate, (2) the percentage of solid classrooms, and (3) the Province Competitiveness Index.

Correlation analysis indicates that international aid projects are ineffective in promoting sustainable development in the VMD amid climate change This ineffectiveness may stem from several factors: the overall amount of loans and grants is insufficient, the distribution of these funds among provinces is misaligned with key issues and Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and other contributing factors may also play a role.

Driving forces and factors affecting the effectiveness of

The aid distribution in the VMD is uneven, with certain provinces receiving significantly more funding than others, despite all regions facing challenges related to climate change This imbalance in aid allocation may hinder the overall effectiveness of assistance efforts, highlighting the need for a more equitable distribution strategy.

Ben Tre province, significantly impacted by salinization, has implemented various measures to combat saline intrusion and water shortages, with financial support from international agencies like Donor J The construction of dykes and sluices has been prioritized to protect both agricultural production and daily life However, an interview conducted in January 2021 with residents of Ba Tri district revealed that while coastal dykes and sluices are nearing completion, the irrigation systems in the upper river areas remain inadequate As a result, saltwater continues to intrude into land through riverbanks, exacerbated by closed sluices along the coast.

Figure 4.12: Effective level several projects in Ninh Kieu, Can Tho and

Binh Phuoc Xuan, Cho Moi, An Giang according to the author’s interview results with local people

Effective aid allocation should address local issues to enhance community support In Ninh Kieu District, Can Tho province, residents are particularly concerned about urban flooding due to extreme rainfall and rising tides Additionally, areas near the Can Tho River are experiencing significant erosion.

80% high relatively high medium relatively low low

Effective level in the view of local beneficiaries Ninh Kieu, Can Tho Binh Phuoc Xuan, Cho Moi, An Giang h

Seventy-seven projects funded by Donor W, Donor S, and Donor J, including the Can Tho Urban Development and Resilience Project and the Can Tho University Improvement Project, have been initiated to enhance Can Tho's resilience Local residents generally perceive these projects as effective In contrast, Donor S from Korea conducted three training sessions in 2019 to promote a cooperative model; however, participants felt these sessions lacked practical insights for improving their livelihoods or addressing current challenges, resulting in a moderate effectiveness rating.

In response to the pressing challenges posed by climate change in the VMD, several provinces have assessed their financial requirements for the 2010-2020 period Key decisions, such as Decision No 2075/QD-UBND by the An Giang People’s Committee (2010), Decision No 2577/QD-UBND by the Bac Lieu People’s Committee (2012), Decision No 1224/QD-UBND by the Ben Tre People’s Committee (2011), and Decision No 1530/QD-UBND by the Ca Mau People’s Committee, highlight the urgent need for strategic financing to address these environmental challenges effectively.

2012), Decision No.182/QD-UBND and Decision No.242/QD-UBND (Soc Trang People’s Committee, 2011), Decision No.264/QD-UBND (Tra Vinh People’s Committee, 2010), Decision No.1342/QD-UBND (Kien Giang People’s Committee,

Between 2010 and 2020, the total financing required for climate action plans across various regions in Vietnam, including Long An, Hau Giang, Tien Giang, Vinh Long, Dong Thap, and Can Tho, was approximately USD 5.5 billion This figure, derived from multiple decisions by local People's Committees, highlights the significant financial commitment needed for effective climate action Additionally, the Ministry of Planning and Investment (MPI) estimated an even higher amount necessary for climate initiatives in the Mekong Delta region.

The Vietnam Mekong Delta (VMD) requires approximately USD 6.74 billion over five years (2016-2020) for climate change resilience investments, including no-regret and green growth initiatives, according to the World Bank (2020) This amount is nearly 2.5 times the total aid received during the 2010-2020 period, highlighting a significant gap between the necessary funding and the available resources for sustainable development in the VMD amid climate change challenges.

The disbursement of loans and grants significantly impacts project implementation, with a 2019 survey by ADB and WB revealing that 26% of Project Management Units and all interviewed donors and local authorities acknowledged that low withdrawal rates hinder aid effectiveness in the VMD (Le, 2021a; Le, 2021b) This issue stems from four main factors: first, inconsistent and frequently changing government regulations on ODA management create confusion for international agencies; second, delays in the approval of medium-term investment planning impede project progress; third, many projects experience budget shortfalls or over-allocations, with late additional budget approvals; and fourth, slow responses from government agencies regarding project schedule reviews disrupt preparatory work and halt ongoing projects The need for revisions to investment policy for even minor project changes further exacerbates these delays.

79 procedures, causing confusion in line ministries and executing agencies

Achieving sustainable development goals in the Mekong Delta of Vietnam requires solidarity and coordinated efforts among all stakeholders Numerous documents, bilateral and multilateral meetings, as well as workshops and conferences, have facilitated collaboration, enabling the effective allocation of projects, optimal resource utilization, enhanced governance, and improved project performance in the region.

Since 2011, the Netherlands and Vietnamese experts have collaborated to create the Mekong Delta Plan, establishing a long-term development vision and specific recommendations for donor project proposals Released in 2013, the Plan has gained endorsement from the government, universities, and research institutes, serving as a valuable reference for the government and international aid agencies despite not being an official planning document The contributions of the Mekong Delta Plan led to the development of the first Integrated Regional Master Plan for the Vietnam Mekong Delta (VMD), spearheaded by the Ministry of Planning and Investment in partnership with the World Bank, local leaders, scientists, and experts In light of budget constraints and high infrastructure demands, this integrated master plan serves as a foundation for decision-making aimed at promoting economic growth, sustainable resource management, and social cohesion.

The Mekong Delta Working Group (MDWG) serves as an effective platform for donors to exchange ideas on sustainable development in the Vietnam Mekong Delta (VMD), aiming to minimize duplication of efforts and enhance aid effectiveness However, not all international agencies engaged in sustainable development within the VMD are part of the MDWG, and the group has yet to establish a comprehensive database on donor activities.

The Mekong Delta region has seen 80 assistance projects, but incomplete project information from various donors and agencies hampers data analysis and the overall direction of the Mekong Delta Working Group (MDWG) Additionally, the participation of key stakeholders, particularly the Vietnamese government, in MDWG meetings has been limited Notably, in 2019, Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc and local leaders from Mekong Delta provinces attended an MDWG meeting, highlighting a significant opportunity for donors to engage with the government and enhance coordination and cooperation at both national and regional levels.

Effective coordination at the local level significantly influences the success of aid projects, as demonstrated by Project A in Ben Tre, funded by Donor I The project's aim is to enhance community capacity for climate change resilience and boost income through participation in climate-responsive economic activities Unlike other aid organizations, Donor I directly allocated 100% of the funding to local government and departments, fostering active participation from local authorities and leveraging support from various sectors Additionally, Donor I established a Project Coordination Unit in Ben Tre city and Project Management Units in targeted districts, collaborating with local farmer associations, women's groups, and youth organizations Each Project Management Unit comprises local officials and community members who possess in-depth knowledge of local conditions, ensuring regular evaluations of project implementation at the household level.

Between 2014 and 2020, the project successfully assisted 13,463 low-income families in increasing their income, leading to a 44.6% reduction in the rate of poor households across 30 communities, as reported by Mr H, the project director Local beneficiaries indicated a high level of effectiveness for Project A in Ben Tre, with 56.25% of respondents rating it highly, and no respondents selecting "relatively low" or "low."

Figure 4.13: Effective level of Project A according to author’s interview result with local people

Aid interventions can provide direct and unexpected benefits to local communities, but the effectiveness of these efforts heavily relies on local participation Engaging local people is crucial as they can communicate with donors and authorities about pressing economic, social, and environmental issues, contribute resources, and actively participate in project implementation However, cultural barriers often exist between foreign donors and local populations, complicating assistance efforts To effectively address local challenges, it is essential for donors to understand the communities they aim to help Active involvement from local residents not only enhances project outcomes but also fosters better alignment with community needs, as demonstrated in initiatives like salinity monitoring.

60.00% high relatively high medium relatively low low Percentage of respondents (%)

Effective level in the view of local beneficiaries h

PROPOSAL OF SOLUTIONS, RECOMMENDATIONS TO

General principles

Proper solutions and recommendations for effective foreign assistance towards sustainable development and climate change response in the VMD have to follow below requirements:

- Ensuring five principles of effective aid proposed by OECD:

 Ownership: The Vietnamese government proves effective leadership

 Alignment: Donors’ activities are suitable with visions, strategies and plans of the Vietnamese government at the national level, regional level, and province level

 Harmonization: Donors coordinate their actions, simplify procedures, and share information to avoid duplication

 Managing for results: The Vietnamese government at all levels and donors manage resources and enhance decision-making for results

 Mutual accountability: Donors and the Vietnamese government are accountable for results

- Helping local people deal with the present or future issues affecting sustainable development in the VMD, being suitable for the needs of local people in the VMD

- Promoting the active role of all stakeholders

Solutions, recommendations to improve the effectiveness

In light of the above analysis, the solutions/ recommendations for foreign aid h

The effectiveness of aid projects is driven by five key factors, analyzed at both short-term and long-term levels Active participation from all stakeholders—including the government, donors, experts, and local communities—is crucial for success This study specifically targets recommendations for three primary stakeholders: international donors, the government, and local people, as they significantly impact aid effectiveness Each of these stakeholders has unique roles, interests, and expectations that contribute to the overall success of practical aid initiatives.

Table 5.1: Analysis of major stakeholders in the VMD

Donors Supporting towards sustainable development through:

- Promoting and supporting partnership, coordination

Government - Regulating activities of other stakeholders

- Engaging and supporting stakeholders contribute to projects for sustainable development

Local people - Reporting and giving opinions regarding existing issues

- Cultivating knowledge, practising skills, and proactively dealing with problems

- Health, safety, and well-being

Effective aid allocation is crucial for maximizing the impact of limited financial resources To ensure successful aid projects in the VMD, it is essential to accurately identify the specific problems that require assistance, assess the severity of these issues, and determine the necessary resources Implementing targeted recommendations for aid allocation can significantly enhance the effectiveness of support initiatives.

 Paying more attention to drought & salinization, especially in Kien Giang, Bac Lieu Coastal and river erosion, particularly in Kien Giang,

Ca Mau, also need more loans/ grants from donors

Investing in initiatives that support Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is crucial for addressing global challenges Prioritizing projects aimed at achieving SDG2 (zero hunger), SDG3 (good health and well-being), SDG4 (quality education), SDG5 (gender equality), SDG6 (clean water and sanitation), SDG7 (affordable and clean energy), SDG14 (life below water), and SDG15 (life on land) will foster a healthier, more equitable, and sustainable future for all.

 Deciding objectives of projects based on research results, policies of the government

 Regularly evaluating aid projects (during and after implementation) for future better aid allocation

 Promoting research for identifying exact existing problems in the region

 Formulating policies based on research results, recommendations from donors and civil society organizations with a long-term view

 Regularly meeting with donors to propose project topics for consideration, draw lessons and experiences from implemented projects

 Actively reporting and providing opinions regarding existing issues

 Paying more attention to sea-level rise, particularly in Kien Giang, Ca Mau, and Hau Giang

Investing in initiatives that target Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is crucial for fostering a better future Key areas of focus include SDG2 for zero hunger, SDG3 for good health and well-being, SDG4 for quality education, and SDG5 for gender equality Additionally, enhancing SDG6 for clean water and sanitation, promoting SDG7 for affordable and clean energy, and protecting marine ecosystems under SDG14, along with terrestrial life through SDG15, are essential for sustainable development Prioritizing these investments will help create a more equitable and sustainable world.

 Deciding objectives of projects based on research results, policies of the government

 Regularly evaluating aid projects (during and after implementation) for future better aid allocation

 Promoting research for identifying exact existing problems in the region

 Formulating policies based on research results, recommendations from donors and civil society organizations with a long-term view

 Regularly meeting with donors to propose project topics for consideration, draw lessons and experiences from implemented projects

 Actively reporting and providing opinions regarding existing issues

 Mobilizing financing to fulfill the needs of the VMD h

 Quicker, streamlined budget reallocation and additional allocation to reflect project disbursement needs

 Properly acknowledging the ODA capital with two closely linked political and economic aspects, on that basis, exploiting the positive political and economic impacts of ODA for the VMD development

 Raising disbursement/ Withdrawal process to reduce delay or failure in delivering development outcomes, reduce costs

 Enhancing the role of ownership and responsibility of governing agencies and promoting transparency in the management and use of ODA

 Encouraging the private sector to invest in the aid projects (Public-Private Partnership) jointly

 Strengthening monitoring and evaluation of ODA capital to ensure debt safety

 Calling for more funds from international organizations and private sectors

 Developing a corridor and legal framework for ODA and non-ODA management in a synchronous and transparent manner

 Participating in Public-Private Partnership program

 Mobilizing financing to fulfill the visions and goals of Resolution No.120

 Quicker, streamlined budget reallocation and additional allocation to reflect project disbursement needs h

 Speeding up the process of supporting vulnerable areas from domestic capita

 Properly acknowledging the ODA capital with two closely linked political and economic aspects On that basis, exploiting the positive political and economic impacts of ODA for the VMD development

 Raising disbursement/ Withdrawal process to reduce delay or failure in delivering development outcomes, reduce costs

 Enhancing the role of ownership and responsibility of governing agencies and promoting transparency in the management and use of ODA

 Strengthening monitoring and evaluation of ODA capital to ensure debt safety

 Developing a corridor and legal framework for ODA and non-ODA management in a synchronous and transparent manner

 Participating in Public-Private Partnership program

 Improving coordination with government and other donors vertically and horizontally through:

 Issuing specific mechanisms, targets, actions for the Mekong Delta Working Group

 Establishing more regular meetings for core group (depending on the level of engagement and topic of interest) and biannual h

90 meetings for a broader group focusing on networking and information sharing

 Proposing focal points for sharing projects information more regularly (could be weekly or monthly through e-mail)

 Issuing newsletter for sharing information

 Encouraging more donors/ development partners to join in Mekong Delta Working Group or take part in conferences, meetings

 Inviting the Vietnamese government and private sectors to join the Mekong Delta Working Group meetings regularly

 Enhancing coordination, cooperation with foreign assistance agencies through:

 Joining regularly in meetings with donors for better understanding donors’ activities and proposing appropriate project demands to donors

 Building preferential policies to attract aid

 Improving aid projects’ approval/ clearance procedures

 Actively reporting and providing opinions regarding existing issues in the area

 Supporting donors and authorities in the projects implementation stage

 Enhancing relationship with the Vietnamese government and local people vertically and horizontally h

 Joining regularly in meetings with donors for better understanding donors’ activities and proposing appropriate project demands to donors

 Building preferential policies to attract aid

 Actively reporting and providing opinions regarding existing issues in the area

 Supporting donors and authorities in the projects implementation stage

 Supporting the government in building policies regarding orientation for sustainable development and aid management

 Building integrated master plan that considers climate change impacts and sustainable development for the VMD

 Building policies, procedures based on research results with a long-term view

 Strengthening monitoring and evaluation with a focus on procedural efficiency

To enhance the effectiveness of aid projects, it is essential to establish clear and consistent roles and responsibilities among the various agencies involved Additionally, streamlining the approval process by reducing the number of steps and increasing delegation is crucial for improving efficiency and responsiveness.

 Actively providing opinions regarding existing policies in the area through organizations

In the long term, it is essential for the government to regularly update master plans and strategies in collaboration with stakeholders to address climate change and environmental issues This proactive approach, alongside ongoing short-term activities, will promote sustainable development.

In the short term, donors, authorities, and local people should follow the below recommendations to enhance knowledge and experience, communication ability, management ability, and active participation of human resources:

 Supporting training and education, creating conditions for human resource development

 Reaching out to local people through reputable associations such as farmer associations, women unions, youth groups, and local civil society organizations

 Recruiting more local people for projects management and implementation

 Providing training for new legislation

 Enhancing management ability of local officers through workshops, seminars, short-courses h

 Encouraging projects’ beneficiaries act actively

 Actively cultivating knowledge, reporting and providing opinions regarding existing issues in the area

 Energetically participating in training activities

Long-term human resources recommendations closely align with short-term strategies, emphasizing the importance of stakeholder involvement Regularly summarizing and extracting lessons from past projects is crucial, as it facilitates continuous improvement in human resources Periodic reviews of experiences over time significantly enhance the effectiveness of HR practices.

CONCLUSION

Conclusions

Sustainable development in the Vietnam Mekong Delta (VMD) faces numerous challenges, primarily driven by climate change, which has emerged as the most significant threat over the past decade Key climate-related issues include sea-level rise, drought, salinization, flooding, and erosion, with drought and saline intrusion being particularly severe in regions like Ca Mau, Kien Giang, and Bac Lieu Additionally, coastal and river erosion in areas such as Ca Mau, Kien Giang, An Giang, Dong Thap, and Ben Tre requires urgent attention, alongside flooding concerns in An Giang, Dong Thap, and Can Tho Looking ahead, the rising sea levels necessitate greater focus on the coastal regions, especially the western coast of the VMD, including Kien Giang, Hau Giang, and Ca Mau.

International agencies are supporting the Vietnamese government and local communities in addressing climate change challenges for sustainable development in the Mekong Delta (VMD) through various loans and grants Between 2010 and 2020, foreign donors significantly increased their aid to the region, demonstrating adherence to at least three out of five principles for aid effectiveness However, the overall impact of these international aid projects on sustainable development in the VMD remains limited, particularly in the context of climate change, as the distribution of loans and grants does not adequately address the most pressing issues.

The effectiveness of foreign aid in the region is significantly impacted by several factors, including the distribution of the 95 focused Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) among provinces, low disbursement rates of loans and grants, and limitations in coordination and related policies Additionally, the quality of human resources plays a crucial role in shaping the overall impact of foreign aid initiatives.

Effective foreign assistance projects in the Mekong Delta (VMD) require collaborative efforts from donors, the government, and local communities Well-structured aid proposals are crucial for addressing climate change and promoting sustainable development in the region Immediate focus should be on projects tackling drought and salinization, particularly in Kien Giang and Bac Lieu, as well as coastal and river erosion in Kien Giang and Ca Mau Key Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) such as SDG2, SDG3, SDG4, SDG5, SDG6, SDG7, SDG14, and SDG15 demand greater attention In the long term, international donors must prioritize assistance for combating sea-level rise in Kien Giang, Ca Mau, and Hau Giang Furthermore, enhancing coordination, improving disbursement rates, and refining policies and human resources should be seriously considered to maximize the effectiveness of foreign aid.

Limitations of the research

This research faces limitations, particularly in accessing aid project data due to donor policies A notable gap exists between the actual total aid transferred and the annual loans/grants calculated for each province, stemming from the assumption that donors provide consistent yearly amounts throughout the project duration Additionally, fluctuations in exchange rates impact the accuracy of these figures, as loan and grant data is published in the donor country's currency To address this, the author utilized the average exchange rate from 2010 to 2020 for converting total aid transfers into a single currency.

The author analyzed 96 projects based on geographical coverage, related Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), Climate Change Resilience (CCR) options, and climate change issues, but the reliance on a single author's perspective raises potential errors in the analysis Additionally, financial constraints led to missing values in the Pearson Correlation Coefficient Test, and the research faced limitations in interview data collection due to the Covid-19 pandemic While the study focused on Vietnamese government policies, it acknowledged that donor policies significantly impact aid effectiveness Furthermore, the scale of problems, project sizes, and applied measures greatly influence aid allocation, yet the lack of information on suitable methods for each area in the Vietnam Mekong Delta (VMD) restricts the assessment of fairness in foreign aid distribution.

Recommendations for further study

Further study should deal with shortcomings of this research to achieve better results by:

- Conducting more surveys, interviews with local people, donors

- Collecting more aid projects’ data from local government and donors to have appropriate aid project information regarding geographic coverage, objectives, tasks, annual transferred loans/ grants and so on

- Considering donors/ development partners’ policies in analyzing

- Double-checking the aid grouping results h

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OECD DAC (2019) Better Criteria for Better Evaluation: Revised Evaluation

The OECD outlines essential criteria and principles for effective evaluation in its 2019 document, emphasizing the importance of clear definitions and their application in assessing aid effectiveness The Paris Declaration on Aid Effectiveness and the Accra Agenda for Action, established in 2008, further reinforce these principles by promoting accountability, transparency, and collaboration among donor and recipient countries to enhance the impact of international aid initiatives.

Park, E., Ho, H L., Tran, D D., Yang, X., Alcantara, E., Merino, E., & Son, V H

(2020) Dramatic decrease of flood frequency in the Mekong Delta due to river-bed mining and dyke construction Science of the Total Environment, 723,

Phung, D., Huang, C., Rutherford, S., Chu, C., Wang, X., Nguyen, M., Nguyen, N H., Manh, C D., & Nguyen, T H (2015) Association between climate factors and diarrhoea in a Mekong Delta area International Journal of Biometeorology, 59(9), 1321–1331 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-014-0942-1 h

A study by Phung et al (2021) published in *Climate Risk Management* investigates the impacts of hydropower dams and river droughts on health in the lower Mekong Delta Region The research focuses on detection and attribution of these effects, highlighting the interconnectedness of climate change, water management, and public health The findings underscore the need for sustainable practices in hydropower development to mitigate adverse health outcomes associated with environmental changes For more details, refer to the study [here](https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2021.100280).

In 2011, the Prime Minister issued Decision No 1719/QD-TTg, outlining the evaluation criteria for priority projects under the Support Program to Address Climate Change This decision emphasizes the importance of assessing projects that contribute to climate resilience and sustainability For further details, visit the official government portal.

In 2012, the Prime Minister of Vietnam approved the Sustainable Development Strategy for the period of 2011-2020, aiming to enhance the nation's socio-economic growth while ensuring environmental sustainability This strategic framework outlines key objectives and actions to promote sustainable practices across various sectors in Vietnam For more details, visit the Vietnam Government Portal.

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Prime Minister (2019) Decision No 417/QD-TTg in implementing the

The Vietnamese government's Resolution 120/NQ-CP focuses on the sustainable development of the Mekong Delta in response to climate change challenges This strategic framework aims to enhance resilience and promote environmentally friendly practices in the region, ensuring the long-term well-being of its communities and ecosystems For more details, visit the Vietnam Government Portal.

Quibria, M.G (2014) Aid effectiveness: research, policy and unresolved issues,

Soc Trang Statistics Office (2020) Soc Trang Statistical Yearbook 2018 Statistical Publishing House

In 2020, Thanh Phong reported on the unprecedented drought and saline intrusion affecting the Mekong Delta, marking the most severe environmental crisis in the region's history This phenomenon has had significant implications for agriculture and water resources, exacerbating challenges for local communities The article highlights the urgent need for effective management strategies to mitigate the impact of climate change on this vital area.

Tien Giang Statistics Office (2020) Tien Giang Statistical Yearbook 2018 Statistical Publishing House

Toan, T.Q (2014) Climate change and sea-level rise in the Mekong Delta: flood, tidal inundation, salinity intrusion, and irrigation adaptation methods Coastal h

Disaster and Climate Change in Vietnam Elsevier, pp 199–218. https://doi.org/10.1016/b978-0-12-800007-6.00009-5

Tra Vinh Statistics Office (2020) Tra Vinh Statistical Yearbook 2018 Statistical Publishing House

Tran, T H N (2015) Land resources and agricultural development in the Mekong

Delta in Vietnam The International Workshop of the Institute of Vietnamese

Vietnam Chamber of Commerce and Industry & Fulbright School of Public Policy and Management (2021) Annual Mekong Delta Economic Report 2020: Enhancing Competitiveness for Sustainable Development Can Tho University

Publishing House https://fsppm.fulbright.edu.vn/download/BCKT-Mekong-Delta-Eng-Final.pdf Vinh Long Statistics Office (2020) Vinh Long Statistical Yearbook 2018 Statistical Publishing House

Vo, T D., & Huynh, V K (2014) Using a Risk Cost-Benefit Analysis for a Sea Dike to Adapt to the Sea Level in the Vietnamese Mekong River Delta Climate, 2(2), 78–102 https://doi.org/10.3390/cli2020078

Webersik, C (2010) Climate Change and Security: A Gathering Storm of Global Challenges Praeger

Wijaya, A S (2014) Climate Change, Global Warming, and Global Inequity in Developed and Developing Countries (Analytical Perspective, Issue, Problem and Solution) IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 19,

World Bank (2020) Mobilizing Financing for Climate Smart Investments in the Mekong Delta: An Options Note World Bank, Hanoi © World Bank https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/34202 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.

World Commission on Environment and Development (1987) Report of the World

Commission on Environment and Development: Our Common Future https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/content/documents/5987our-common-future. pdf h

Matrix of this research and related variables in correlation test, SDGs, climate change response

Appendix A: Interview questions for experts, staff in foreign aid agency

Q1 Name of respondent: Q2 Position: Q3 Department, Agency: Q4 Working location: Q5 Contact information: Q6 Gender: 1 Female  2 Male  3 Other 

1 No schooling complete  5 Trade school complete 

4 High school complete  8 Master's degree and above 

The sustainable development of the VMD has faced significant challenges over the past decade, including environmental degradation, climate change impacts, and inadequate infrastructure Currently, issues such as water scarcity, pollution, and land use conflicts persist, affecting agricultural productivity and community livelihoods Looking ahead, the upper, middle, and lower regions of the Mekong Delta are expected to grapple with rising sea levels, increased salinity, and the need for effective resource management to ensure resilience and sustainability Addressing these interconnected issues is crucial for the long-term viability of the region's ecosystems and economies.

Q11 Which issues and locations should be prioritized to achieve sustainable development in the Vietnamese Mekong River Delta at present and in the future? Why?

Q12 What kind of aid projects for climate change response and sustainable development, and what issues your agency prefers to assist at present and in the h

Q13 How to launch aid projects for climate change response and sustainable development in the VMD? Please describe each stage of aid projects briefly

Q14 How is the effectiveness assessed in aid projects in your agency? Does your agency share the effectiveness evaluation method with other relevant stakeholders?

Q15 How is your agency's projects' effectiveness for climate change response and sustainable development in general from 2010 to 2020? Do you think those projects achieve their objectives?

Q16 What are the major problems affecting foreign aid projects' effectiveness for climate change response and sustainable development in the Vietnamese Mekong River Delta?

Q17 Is there any coordination, cooperation among stakeholders in your projects for climate change response and sustainable development?

Between 2010 and 2020, our agency collaborated with various provincial governments in the Vietnam Mekong Delta (VMD) on multiple projects The effectiveness of coordination and cooperation with these local governments has generally been positive, fostering strong partnerships and enhancing project outcomes.

Between 2010 and 2020, our agency collaborated with various international donor agencies on sustainable development projects in the Vietnamese Mekong River Delta To ensure effective coordination and cooperation, we implemented strategies to avoid overlaps and maximize synergies among different initiatives This collaborative approach enhanced the overall effectiveness of our partnerships, leading to improved outcomes for sustainable development in the region.

Q20 Do you think the coordination, cooperation between international aid agencies h

106 and local government and among international aid agencies is essential? Why?

Collaboration between local governments and international aid agencies often faces challenges that impact coordination and cooperation Factors such as differing priorities, communication barriers, and resource limitations can hinder effective partnerships Additionally, varying operational procedures and cultural misunderstandings may further complicate relationships among international aid organizations Addressing these issues is crucial for enhancing synergy between local authorities and aid agencies, ultimately improving the effectiveness of humanitarian efforts in the region.

Q22 What kind of improvement should local authorities apply for effective aid projects for climate change response and sustainable development in the Mekong Delta in Vietnam? Why?

Q23 What kind of improvement should international aid agencies apply for effective aid projects for climate change response and sustainable development in the Mekong Delta in Vietnam? Why?

Appendix B: Interview questions for local authority

Q1 Name of respondent: Q2 Position: Q3 Department, Agency: Q4 Working location: Q5 Contact information: Q6 Address: Q7 Gender: 1 Female  2 Male  3 Other 

1 No schooling complete  5 Trade school complete 

4 High school complete  8 Master's degree and above 

Q10 Ethnicity: Q11 You are: 1 Local people 

2 Moving from another place  (…year, reason:……… )

Q12 Household's livelihood & average monthly income:

Average monthly income (mil VND)

Q13 Has there been any change in your household's monthly income over the past five years? What have been the reasons for this change?

Level (small, medium, large) Reasons

Q14 What are the main issues affecting your province's sustainable development in the past ten years, now, and in the future?

Q15 In your opinion, what issues need to be addressed first to achieve sustainable development goals in the region? Which areas should be given priority over others? h

Q16 Could you please tell us the severe signs and impacts of climate change in the region? What is the most influential climate change phenomenon in the area?

Q17 Could you please tell us the activities and policies that the local authorities are implementing to respond to climate change towards sustainable development?

Q18 Do you think foreign aid projects are necessary to respond to climate change towards sustainable development in the region? Why?

Q19 Would you please list the foreign aid projects related to climate change response and sustainable development locally (Project Name, Aid Organization, Time, Location, Comments in terms of effectiveness)?

Local governments play a crucial role in foreign aid projects aimed at addressing climate change and promoting sustainable development They are essential for ensuring that foreign aid aligns with local needs and priorities Effective coordination and cooperation between foreign aid organizations and local governments are vital throughout the various stages of a project This collaboration includes joint planning, resource sharing, and ongoing communication to enhance project effectiveness and sustainability By actively involving local governments, foreign aid initiatives can better address specific environmental challenges and foster community resilience.

How do you think about the coordination and cooperation activities among the foreign aid organizations and between the foreign aid agency and the local government?

Q21 Do local governments evaluate the effectiveness of foreign aid projects? If so, how is the effectiveness of these projects assessed?

International aid projects focused on climate change and sustainable development play a crucial role in local communities These initiatives have made significant progress in achieving their initial goals, demonstrating their effectiveness in addressing environmental challenges Moving forward, continued support and innovative strategies are essential to enhance the impact of these projects and ensure they meet their objectives Overall, the success of international aid in this area underscores the importance of collaboration and commitment to sustainable practices.

Q23 According to you, what factors and issues have been and will affect the effectiveness of foreign aid projects in the region?

Q24 In your opinion, is coordination and cooperation before, during, and after implementing international aid projects necessary? Why?

Working with international aid agencies can present various challenges, including communication barriers, cultural differences, and differing priorities These issues can hinder effective coordination and cooperation between aid organizations and local governments Factors such as bureaucratic red tape, lack of local knowledge, and differing operational practices can further complicate collaboration Additionally, the sustainability of aid efforts may be affected by the alignment of goals and the presence of adequate resources Addressing these challenges is crucial for enhancing the effectiveness of international aid initiatives.

Q26 According to you, what measures should foreign aid organizations take to make foreign aid projects effective?

Q27 What issues should foreign aid projects be prioritized in the region, especially those related to climate change? Which region or province should be given priority?

Q28 What activities, policies will the local authorities implement or apply to attract foreign aid and improve foreign aid projects' effectiveness? Why?

Appendix C: Interview questions for local people

1 No schooling complete  5 Trade school complete 

4 High school complete  8 Master's degree and above 

Q6 Ethnicity: Q7 You are: 1 Local person 

2 Moving from another place  (…year, reason……….)

Q8 Household's livelihood & average monthly income:

Average monthly income (mil VND)

Q9 Has there been any change in your household's monthly income over the past five years? What have been the reasons for this change?

Level (small, medium, large) Reasons

Sustainable development is defined as progress that fulfills current needs while ensuring future generations can also meet theirs In the past decade, key issues affecting sustainable development in my area have included environmental degradation, resource depletion, and social inequality Currently, challenges such as climate change, urbanization, and economic instability continue to impact sustainability efforts Looking ahead, future concerns may involve technological advancements, population growth, and the need for resilient infrastructure to support sustainable practices.

Q11 What are the prominent signs and impacts of climate change in your living area? What is the most affecting climate change event?

In our region, several foreign aid projects focus on climate change response and sustainable development One notable initiative is the "Green Future Initiative," managed by the International Environmental Agency, which has been active since 2020 This project aims to enhance local resilience to climate impacts through community education and sustainable agricultural practices Overall, the effectiveness of the Green Future Initiative has been positively assessed, with significant improvements in local environmental awareness and agricultural sustainability reported by participants.

Q13 How do you feel about the effectiveness of international aid projects related to climate change and sustainable development in the area?

Do you think those projects will achieve/ achieved the goals set out before?

In my opinion, these projects play a crucial role in addressing climate change and promoting sustainable development within local communities Their benefits are evident in enhancing resilience and fostering environmentally friendly practices Additionally, there is a pressing need for increased foreign aid to support these initiatives, as external resources can significantly amplify their impact and ensure long-term sustainability.

Q15 In your opinion, what activities and policies should be taken to improve the effectiveness of foreign aid projects in the region? Why?

Q16 What issues should foreign aid projects be prioritized in the region, especially those related to climate change? Which areas/ provinces should be given priority?

Appendix D: The number of donors and their projects in VMD in the 2010-2020 period collected by the author

1 AAFV France-Vietnam Friendship Association,

3 AAV & AFV ActionAid Vietnam & Aid for social protection program Foundation Vietnam 1

4 ACIAR Australian Centre for International

5 ACOTEC Association pour les Cooperations

7 ADRA Adventist Development & Relief Agency,

8 AEV Australian Embassy in Vietnam 1

9 AFAP Australian Foundation for the Peoples of

Asia and the Pacific, Australia 3

L'Agence Franỗaise de Dộveloppement (English: The French Development Agency)

13 BGR Federal Institute for Geosciences and

14 BMZ Federal Ministry for Economic

15 Bread Bread for the World 4

16 Bread & AAV Bread for the World & ActionAid

17 Bread & AFAP Bread for the World & Australian

Foundation for the Peoples of Asia and 1 h

Total considered projects the Pacific, Australia

18 care Cooperative for Assistance and Relief

19 CDC Centers for Disease Control and

Caisse Mutuelle Complémentaire d'Action Sociale (English: Social Action Supplementary Mutual Fund) - Association pour les Cooperations Techniques et Culturelles (France)

24 DCIL Dow Chemical International Limited 1

25 EMWF East Meets West Fund 2

27 EPVN Enfants Partnariat Vietnam, France 1

Enfant Espoir pour un Enfant 1

30 FAO Food and Agriculture Organization 1

Foundation for Cultural and Folk Conservation Support Fund of Education Exchange with Vietnam

Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (English: German Corporation for International Cooperation GmbH)

36 ICLD Swedish International Centre for Local

37 IFAD International Fund for Agricultural

38 IRRI International Rice Research Institute 2

39 IUCN International Union for Conservation of

40 JEV Embassy of Japan in Vietnam 1

41 JICA Japan International Cooperation Agency 15

43 JIRCAS Japan International Research Center for

44 KfW Kreditanstalt Für Wiederaufbau (English:

Charitier Latter Day Saint Charitier 3

Dragon Les Enfants du Dragon 2

National Foundation for Science and Technology Development, Vietnam - the Research Foundation – Flanders, Belgium

50 NAGAO Nagao Natural Environmental Foundation 1

52 NMAV Mission Alliance in Vietnam 1

53 PEER Partnerships for Enhanced Engagement in 1 h

54 Premier Oil (UK) in Vietnam Premier Oil (UK) in Vietnam 3

55 RECERD Research Centre for Resources and Rural development 1

57 SECO Swiss Secretariat of Economic Affairs 5

Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency - Department for Research Cooperation

60 SP-RCC Support Program to Respond to Climate

Hounville Student union of Hounville 1

64 UNDP United Nations Development Programme 8

65 UNICEF United Nations International Children's

66 USAID United States Agency for International

Vlaamse Interuniversitaire Raad - Research Initiatives Programmes, Belgium

Appendix E: Detail sources of data

Data types Data sources Detail (Citation/ link)

Natural, socio-economic features of the VMD

Statistical yearbook of each province in VMD in

In 2020, various Statistics Offices across the Mekong Delta region of Vietnam, including An Giang, Bac Lieu, Can Tho, Soc Trang, Long An, Dong Thap, Tien Giang, Tra Vinh, Hau Giang, Vinh Long, Ben Tre, Kien Giang, and Ca Mau, provided essential data and insights.

2020 Issues in the VMD in the past, present, and future

Journal articles, reports, records, interview results related to issues in VMD

A comprehensive review of various studies and reports, including those by MONRE (2016), Lee & Dang (2018), and Ho et al (2021), highlights significant contributions to the field Key findings from researchers such as Thanh Phong (2020), Royal HaskoningDHV and GIZ (2021), and Park et al (2020) underscore the importance of sustainable practices Additional insights from MARD (2018), GIZ (2020), and Anthony et al (2015) further enrich the discourse Recent works by Nguyen (2020), Nguyen et al (2020), and JICA (2019) continue to advance knowledge, while studies by Golden et al (2019), Phung et al (2021), and Minderhoud et al (2017) provide valuable context Liu et al (2020) and Phung et al (2015) also contribute essential perspectives to ongoing discussions in the field.

Circular, Decision issued by the government

Data types Data sources Detail (Citation/ link)

No.16/2016/ND-CP; Decree No

No.56/2020/ND-CP; Decree No

No.80/2020/ND-CP; Circular No.12/2016/TT-BKHDT; Decision

No.251/QD-TTg; Resolution number 120/NQ-CP; etc

Dalgaard, 2008; Kasuga & Morita, 2012; Quibria, 2014; Metzger & Guenther, 2015; Lawson, 2013; Bigsten & Tengstam, 2015; Bourguignon & Platteau, 2015; Quibria, 2014; Arndt et al., 2015; Irfan & Nehra, 2016; Kabir, 2020; Daly et al., 2020; Mahalik et al., 2021; OECD DAC, 2019; Metzger & Guenther, 2015; etc

Climate change expressions, climate change impacts in the VMD

Climate change scenarios (2016's version), downscaling to the VMD

Information of aid projects in the VMD

(donor, project title, project term,

Mekong Delta Working https://www.worldbank.org/vi/country/vi etnam; https://www.adb.org/vi/countries/viet-na m/main; h

Data types Data sources Detail (Citation/ link) location, amount of committed loan/ grant, project activities, focusing fields, etc.) in the

This article provides a comprehensive overview of various international aid agencies operating in Vietnam, including their websites and key resources Notable organizations include JICA, IFAD, GIZ, SECO, WWF, IUCN, UNDP, and others, each contributing to development projects and initiatives in the region For detailed information on their operations, visit their respective websites, such as JICA (http://www.jica.go.jp/vietnam/index.html), IFAD (https://www.ifad.org/en/web/operations/country/id/viet_nam), and USAID (https://www.usaid.gov/vi/vietnam) These platforms offer insights into ongoing projects and collaborations aimed at enhancing Vietnam's socio-economic landscape.

Le, 2021a; Le, 2021b; Le, 2021c Situation before and after implementing aid projects

Results of interviews with donors, local authorities, and local people; results of some experiments

Data types Data sources Detail (Citation/ link) aid projects donors, local authorities Existing priorities, reasons of donors, local authorities

Factors affecting the effectiveness of foreign aid projects

Appendix F: Average exchange rate during 2010-2020 applied in this research

VND AUD JPY DKK EUR CHF

- https://www.measuringworth.com/datasets/exchangeglobal/

- https://www.sbv.gov.vn/TyGia/faces/TyGiaTrungTam.jspx?_afrLoop86253 1472815297&_afrWindowMode=0&_adf.ctrl-state=t97l8ofq0_21 h

Appendix G: Major driving forces, factors affecting foreign aid effectiveness according to results from interviews with donors and local authorities

Policies, strategies, plans of government

Finance sources - low disbursement rate

Finance sources - lack of funds

Changes of natural environment, climate parameters

% of local authorities' respondents % of donors' respondents h

Appendix H: Matrix of foreign aid projects in the VMD, used variables in Correlation Test, SDGs, and CCR

No Project’s title Project’s objectives (Ob), activities (Act), results (Res), outputs (Otp)

Related variables in Correlation Test

Project on providing water tanks for households affected by salinity

Ob: Enhancing adaptive capacity towards saline intrusion

Act: Providing water tanks Res: Affected households have more freshwater to use

Project on supplying clean freshwater tanks to poor households affected by drought and saltwater intrusion

Ob: Enhancing adaptive capacity towards saline intrusion

Act: Providing water tanks Res: Affected households have more freshwater to use

Young leaders increase the transparency of public service providers

Ob: Increase the transparency of public service providers

Subsidies: Overcoming the consequences of drought, saltwater intrusion and water

Ob: Overcoming the consequences of drought, saltwater intrusion and water supply for people in Vinh Tan commune

No Project’s title Project’s objectives (Ob), activities (Act), results (Res), outputs (Otp)

Related variables in Correlation Test

CCR supply for people in Vinh Tan commune, Vinh Chau town,

Act: Providing financial support to affected people

Supporting building toilets and covering the yard of Thanh

Ob: Improve school infrastructures Act: Building toilets & covering yard Res: Standard toilets and yard in school

Support to improve living standards for the poor, access to services, food security, education, health, gender equality, and environmental sanitation

Ob: Improve living standards for the poor, access to services, food security, education, health, gender equality, and environmental sanitation

Act: Providing training courses, financial supports

SDG1, SDG2, SDG3, SDG4, SDG5, SDG6, SDG8, SDG10, SDG11, SDG13, SDG16, SDG17

Capacity building for the rights of vulnerable women and girls to participate in two poor rural communes in Soc Trang province

Ob: Towards gender equality Act: Providing seminars, training courses

8 Increase the ability of Ob: Towards gender equality Y3 SDG3, SDG4, h

No Project’s title Project’s objectives (Ob), activities (Act), results (Res), outputs (Otp)

Related variables in Correlation Test

CCR adolescents and young women to exercise their right to reproductive health and protection from abuse and violence

Act: Providing seminars, training courses SDG5, SDG16,

Improving the sustainability of rice-shrimp farming systems in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam

The sustainability of rice-shrimp farming systems is essential for enhancing productivity and environmental health By assessing key risk factors and system components, we can evaluate the overall sustainability of these integrated systems Understanding the benefits of combining rice and shrimp farming allows for improved productivity, while promoting effective management strategies is crucial for optimizing both sustainability and output in rice-shrimp farming practices.

SDG4, SDG6, SDG8, SDG9, SDG10, SDG12, SDG13, SDG15, SDG17

10 Construction of 02 Ob: Improve school infrastructures Y4 SDG3, SDG4, h

No Project’s title Project’s objectives (Ob), activities (Act), results (Res), outputs (Otp)

Related variables in Correlation Test

CCR kindergartens and toilets in An

Act: Building kindergartens & toilets Res: Standard kindergartens & toilets

SDG9, SDG10, SDG11, SDG16, SDG17

Lao Dung town, Cu Lao Dung district, Soc Trang province

Ob: Improve school infrastructures Act: Building kindergartens

GMS Flood and Drought Risk

Tien Giang and Dong Thap provinces

Ob: Reducing flood and drought risk Act: Building irrigation system, Constructions of 38 small and medium gates and replace the sheet piles and upgrading the dam

SDG3, SDG6, SDG8, SDG9, SDG10, SDG11, SDG12, SDG13, SDG15, SDG17

Enhancing connectivity in the Mekong Delta Region involves the construction of a segment of the Second Southern Highway, which includes two cable-stayed bridges This project aims to provide efficient access from Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC) to the Southern Coastal Region, significantly improving transportation and economic opportunities in the area.

SDG9, SDG10, SDG11, SDG13, SDG17

No Project’s title Project’s objectives (Ob), activities (Act), results (Res), outputs (Otp)

Related variables in Correlation Test

Act: Build a section of the Second Southern Highway, comprising two cable-stayed bridges with a combined length of about 5 kilometers and associated access and interconnecting roads totalling 26 kilometers

Low Carbon Agriculture support project