(Luận văn) assessing cropping pattern adaptability to climate risks in the vietnamese mekong river delta

VIETNAM NATIONAL UNIVERSITY, HANOI VIETNAM JAPAN UNIVERSITY TRAN THUY TRANG ASSESSING CROPPING PATTERN ADAPTABILITY TO CLIMATE RISKS IN THE VIETNAMESE MEKONG RIVER DELTA MASTER'S THESIS VIETNAM NATIONAL UNIVERSITY, HANOI VIETNAM JAPAN UNIVERSITY TRAN THUY TRANG ASSESSING CROPPING PATTERN ADAPTABILITY TO CLIMATE RISKS IN THE VIETNAMESE MEKONG RIVER DELTA MAJOR: CLIMATE CHANGE AND DEVELOPMENT CODE: 8900201.02QTD RESEARCH SUPERVISOR: Dr AKIHIKO KOTERA Dr NGUYEN THI THUY HANG Hanoi, 2023 PLEDGE I pledge that this thesis is original and has not been published before I am aware of the regulations regarding using other research and documents, and I will ensure that all citations and references adhere to the requirements I have reviewed the guidelines on plagiarism violations I solemnly declare that the research presented in this thesis is my own and does not infringe upon the Regulation on Prevention of Plagiarism in Academic and Scientific Research Activities at VNU Vietnam Japan University (Issued together with Decision No 700/QD-ĐHVN dated 30/9/2021 by the Rector of Vietnam Japan University) Author of the thesis Tran Thuy Trang ACKNOWLEDGEMENT I would like to express my sincere gratitude to the following individuals and groups who have played a significant role in the completion of my master's thesis: First and foremost, I would like to extend my deepest appreciation to my main supervisor, Dr Akihiko Kotera His guidance, support, and encouragement throughout the research process have been invaluable I am also grateful for his sponsorship of the field trip, which provided me with valuable firsthand experience and enriched my understanding of the subject matter I am indebted to Dr Nguyen Thi Thuy Hang for her technical expertise and professional advice Her insightful feedback and constructive criticism have contributed significantly to the improvement of this thesis I would like to acknowledge my classmates, who have been an incredible source of support throughout this journey Their camaraderie, willingness to help and mutual care for one another have created a positive and conducive learning environment Latenight study sessions and shared deadlines have brought us closer together, and I am thankful for their companionship Lastly, I want to acknowledge the numerous challenges and setbacks I encountered during this research It is through perseverance and determination that I was able to overcome these obstacles I commend myself for not giving up on life and staying committed to the completion of this thesis Without the support and contributions of these individuals and my personal resolve, this thesis would not have been possible I am sincerely grateful to all who have been a part of this journey and have contributed to its success TABLE OF CONTENT PLEDGE i ACKNOWLEDGEMENT ii TABLE OF CONTENT i LIST OF TABLES i LIST OF FIGURES ii LIST OF ACRONYMS iv CHAPTER INTRODUCTION 1.1 The necessity of the research 1.2 Literature review 1.2.1 Climate-risks in Vietnamese Mekong River Delta 1.2.2 Cropping pattern in Vietnamese Mekong River Delta 1.2.3 Sustainable cropping methods in Vietnamese Mekong River Delta 1.3 Scope of the research 15 1.4 Research questions and hypotheses 15 1.5 Research objectives 16 1.6 Study area 17 1.7 The framework of the research 23 CHAPTER DATA AND METHODS 25 2.1 Data used 25 2.2 Methods .25 2.2.1 Remote sensing data collection and analysis 2.2.2 Ground truth observation 2.2.3 Desk review method 2.2.4 Non-structured interview CHAPTER RESULTS 39 3.1 Cropping pattern changes in Vietnamese Mekong River Delta 39 3.2 Cropping pattern changes adapting to climate risks 43 3.2.1 Cropping pattern changes adapting to floods 3.2.2 Cropping pattern changes adapting to other climate risks CHAPTER DISCUSSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 54 4.1 Assessing the cropping pattern changes’ efficiency 54 4.2 Problems with triple cropping pattern 55 4.3 Recommendations 56 CHAPTER CONCLUSION 60 5.1 Conclusion 60 5.2 Limitations and future outlooks 61 REFERENCES 63 APPENDICES 68 12 25 30 37 37 44 48 LIST OF TABLES Table 1-1: Comparison between costs and benefits of intensified and balanced cropping in An Giang and Dong Thap, respectively Table 1-2: Explanation for sustainable cropping practice approaches in VMRD Table 1-3:Researching questions and hypotheses Table 1-4: Approved agriculture development plan in VMRD period 2011-2025 Table 2-1: IGBP classification scheme and RGB color code for LULC map Table 2-2: MODIS data acquisition date table Table 2-3: GTO field trip schedule in VMRD (March 2023) Table 2-4: EVI accuracy assessment of Tra Vinh province points Table 2-5: Accuracy assessment of An Giang province points Table 2-6: Heading dates accuracy assessment of Tra Vinh province points Table 2-7: Heading dates accuracy assessment of An Giang province points 13 14 15 of 20 26 27 31 33 34 35 36 i LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1-1: Flooding period by percentage of area in VMRD from 2000 to 2022 (GIS data) Figure 1-2: Provincial flood and salinity risk in VMRD Figure 1-3: Typology and short definitions of the cropping system components .8 Figure 1-4:Dikes and planted area of crops in An Giang from 1985-2016 .11 Figure 1-5: Dike construction: low and high dikes area in An Giang province in 2011 and 2014 12 Figure 1-6: VMRD administrative map 18 Figure 1-7: ecological sub-regions for agricultural development plan in VMRD 20 Figure 1-8: SWI leading to soil salinity map with the depth from cm to 20 cm in Tra Vinh province, VMRD, VN 22 Figure 1-9: An Giang and Tra Vinh in administrative map .23 Figure 1-10: Dike area in An Giang Province, VN, in 2014 23 Figure 1-11: The logical framework of the research .24 Figure 2-1: EVI spectral viewer .29 Figure 2-2: GTO in VMRD route (blue line) 31 Figure 2-3: GTO validation process from point 32 Figure 2-4: GTO route in Tra Vinh and An Giang (pictures for each location are attached and can be accessed via Google Earth) .33 Figure 2-5: The example of rice growth stages and other rice field conditions in the paddy field area 34 Figure 3-1: LULC maps from 2001 to 2021 in VMRD 39 Figure 3-2: LULC change in VMRD from 2001 to 2021 (GIS data) 40 Figure 3-3: Differences in planted area of paddy by provinces in the whole period from 2001 to 2021 (statistical data) Error! Bookmark not defined Figure 3-4: Map of changes in planted area of paddy in VMRD by provinces from 2001 to 2021 (statistical data) 41 Figure 3-5: Cropping frequency changes in VMRD from 2000 to 2022 43 Figure 3-6: Yearly cropping frequency in VMRD from 2000 to 2022 (GIS data) 43 Figure 3-7: Maps of the number of flooding days in An Giang province from 2008 to 2015 45 Figure 3-8: Maps of cropping frequency in An Giang province from 2008 to 2015 46 Figure 3-9: Cropping frequency changing trend in An Giang province from 2010 to 2015 (GIS data) 47 Figure 3-10: Production of paddy in An Giang from 2010 to 2015 (statistical data) 48 Figure 3-11: LULC maps in Tra Vinh from 2001 to 2021 49 ii Figure 3-12: Number of inundated days yearly in Tra Vinh and An Giang from 2000 to 2022 .50 Figure 3-13: Planted area for paddy in Tra Vinh province from 2001 to 2021 (statistical data) 51 Figure 3-14: Cropping frequency in Tra Vinh province from 2000 to 2022 (GIS data) 52 Figure 3-15: Cropping frequency maps in Tra Vinh province from 2000 to 2022 52 Figure 4-1: Yield of spring, autumn & winter paddy by provinces in VMRD from 2001 to 2014 (statistical data) 54 Figure 4-2: Paddy and orange intercropping in Tra Vinh Province (GTO) 57 Figure 4-3: Lotus pond combined with paddy field in Long An Province (GTO) 57 Figure 4-4: Inefficient paddy fields transformed into land for installing solar power panels in An Giang Province (GTO) 58 Figure 4-5: Advertisement material for sustainable agriculture approach in VMRD: reductions gains (left), and must-do reductions (right) 59 iii LIST OF ACRONYMS CC CS-MAP DOY GIS GTO LULC MODIS SWI VMRD VN : : : : : : : : : : Climate change Climate-Smart Mapping and Planning Date of year Geographic Information System Ground truth observation Land use and land cover Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Saline water intrusion Vietnamese Mekong River Delta Vietnam iv