Luận văn thạc sĩ assessing cropping models adapting to climate change in ky phu commune, dai tu district, thai nguyen province

THAI NGUYEN UNIVERSITY UNIVERSITY OF AGRICULTURE AND FORESTRY TRAN THI LANH ASSESSING CROPPING MODELS ADAPTING TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN KY PHU COMMUNE, DAI TU DISTRICT, THAI NGUYEN PROVINCE BACHELOR THESIS Study Mode : Full-time Major : Environmental Science And Management Faculty : International Training and Development Center Batch : 2012 - 2016 Thai Nguyen, September 2016 n Thai Nguyen University of Agriculture and Forestry Degree Program Bachelor of Environmental Science and Management Student name Tran Thi Lanh Student ID DTN1253180080 Thesis Title Assessing cropping models adapting to climate change in Ky Phu commune – Dai Tu district – Thai Nguyen province Supervisor (s) Assoc Prof Dr Tran Van Dien Abstract: A robust and coherent global pattern is discernible of the impacts of climate change on crop productivity that could have consequences for food availability There are a wide range of agricultural-based practices and technologies that have the potential to increase food production and the adaptive capacity of the food production system, as well as reduce emissions or enhance carbon storage in agricultural soils and biomass The research purpose is an assessment of the economic, social and environmental efficiencies of cropping models in context of climate change in Ky Phu commune, Dai Tu district As the results, Spring rice – winter rice – potato, Summer peanut – winter peanut, Red sugarcane – summer peanut shown the best result among three dimensions as economic efficiency (3.92; 4.98 and 1.64 times capital efficiency, respectively), social efficiency (130.81 thousands VND, 149.94 thousands VND, 165.65 thousands VND in working day value, respectively) and environmental efficiency (can adapt well with its standard i n criteria such as suitable capacity between crop systems and soil, fertilizer supply, pesticide and herbicide dosage) These crop systems are suitable to adapt with changing in climate in this study area and could be developing in the future Keywords: climate change, cropping systems, climate-smart agricultural (CSA), adapt to, Ky Phu Number of Pages: 50 Date of Submission: 15/09/2016 Supervisor’s signature ii n ACKNOWLEDGEMENT This thesis has been greatly conducted from the support as well as assistance of many people whom I would sincerely like to give deep thanks and acknowledgements here To achieve results like today, I would like to express sincere gratitude to School Leadership and teachers at Training and Development International Center - Thai Nguyen University of Agriculture and Forestry imparted for me the knowledge as well as facilitating learning and help me during the learning process in schools In particular we would like to express deep gratitude to Assoc Dr Tran Van Dien - who has oriented research, guidance, help and create the best conditions for me to complete this research I would like to sincerely thanks Dr Ho Ngoc Son and official staffs of Agriculture & Forestry Research and Development Center for Mountainous Region for providing me very useful documents and knowledge about climate change; the uncle, aunt, brother, sister officer of Ky Phu commune, Dai Tu district, Thai Nguyen province has wholeheartedly devoted induct guide and help us throughout the process as a subject in the commune I would great fully like to thank Dr Arinafril of Sriwijaya University, Indralaya, Indonesia for his support of my research and immense knowledge His guidance helped me in all the time when I writing this thesis I would like to sincerely thank! Thai Nguyen, September 2016 Tran Thi Lanh iii n TABLE OF CONTENTS PART I INTRODUCTION 1.1 Research rationale .1 1.2 Research’s objectives .4 1.3 The requirements PART II LITERATURE REVIEW 2.1 What is cropping models? 2.2 What is climate change? 2.3 Climate change impacts 2.4 Adaptation 11 2.5 Sustainable crop production intensification 13 2.6 Components of Sustainability Measurement 14 2.7 The natural conditions and socioeconomic in research area 15 2.7.1 Natural condition .15 2.7.2 Economic – social characteristics 18 2.7.3 Status of land use in agricultural production in Ky Phu commune 20 2.7.4 The impact of climate change on agricultural production 21 PART III MATERIALS AND METHODS 23 3.1 Research object 23 3.2 Location of research .23 3.3 Research contents 23 3.4 Research Methods 23 3.4.1 Questionnaires and Interview methods 23 iv n 3.4.2 Secondary data collection method 23 3.4.3 Statistical methods and effective evaluations 24 PART IV RESULTS 26 4.1 Current cropping models in Ky Phu commune-Dai Tu district-Thai Nguyen province 26 4.2 Assessing efficiency of cropping models in context of climate change in Ky Phu commune-Dai Tu district-Thai Nguyen province 27 4.2.1 Assessing the economic efficiency 27 4.2.2 Assessing social efficiency .31 4.2.3 Assessing the environmental efficiency 33 4.3 Selecting cropping models adapting to climate change based on the evaluation criteria of economic, social and environmental efficiency 40 PART V CONCLUSION AND SUGGESTION 41 5.1 Conclusion 41 5.2 Suggestion 42 REFERENCES 43 APPENDICES .49 v n LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: Proposed agricultural indicators for measuring sustainability (Zhen and Routray 2003) 14 Figure 2: The location of Ky Phu commune (Google map) 15 vi n LIST OF TABLES Table Climate change impacts on crop production 11 Table Basic information of Ky Phu 19 Table Current agricultural land use in Ky Phu commune 2015 20 Table The impact of climate change on agricultural production in Ky Phu commune .21 Table Current cropping models in Ky Phu commune, Dai Tu district, Thai Nguyen province in 2015 .26 Table The economic efficiency of common crops in Ky Phu commune (calculated in ha) .28 Table Economic efficiency of cropping models (calculated in ha) 29 Table The threshold of economic efficiency for different agricultural productions 30 Table The levels of economic efficiency for different agricultural productions 30 Table 10 The social efficiency for different agricultural productions(per ha) 31 Table 11 The threshold of social efficiency for different agricultural productions 32 Table 12 The levels of social efficiency for different agricultural productions 32 Table 13 Comparing between the level fertilizer usage and dose recommendation 35 Table 14 The amount of pesticide usage in reality and recommendation 36 Table 15 The thresholds to assess the level of environmental efficiency of diffirent types of agricultural production 37 Table 16 Assessment the level of environmental efficiency of different types of agricultural production 38 Table 17 Assessment the levels of economic, social and environmental efficiency for different types of agricultural production in Ky Phu 40 vii n LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS FAO The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change RS – SP Red sugarcane – Summer peanut SR-WR-H Spring rice – Winter rice – Haricot SR-WR-WC Spring rice – Winter rice – Winter corn SP – WP Summer peanut – Winter peanut SR-WR Spring rice – Winter rice SR-WR-P Spring rice – Winter rice – Potato viii n PART I INTRODUCTION 1.1 Research rationale From now up to 2050, the world’s population is going to increase by one- third Most of these additional billion people will live in developing countries The more people will be living in cities, the less agricultural land could be using (FAO, 2009) If current income and consumption growth trends continue, FAO (2011) estimated that agricultural production will have to increase by 60 percent by 2050 to satisfy the expected demands for food and feed Improving smallholder agricultural systems is a key response to solve this problem (Wheeler & Braun, 2013) Because strengthening agricultural production systems is a fundamental means of improving incomes and food security for the largest group of food insecure in the world (World Development Report, 2007; Ravallion & Chen, 2007) As the key economic sector of most low income developing countries, improving the resilience of agricultural systems is essential for climate change adaptation (Conant, 2009; Parry et al., 2007; Adger et al., 2003) At the same time, nearly all researchers conclude that, though average global crop production may not change dramatically by 2050, certain regions may still see average production drop and many more are likely to face increased climate variability and extreme weather shocks even in the near term (IPCC 2001 & 2007; Mccarthy et al., 2011) With respect to those areas that currently suffer from a high degree of food insecurity Lobell et al (2009) studied the potential crop impacts in 12 food insecure regions of the world and n REFERENCES Asfaw, S., & Lipper, L (2011) Economics of PGRFA management for adaptation to climate change: a review of selected literature FAO Commission on Genetic Resources for Food and Agriculture Background Study Paper No 60 Burton, I., Feenstra, J.F., Smith, J B & Tol, R S Introduction In: Feenstra, J F (1998) Handbook on Methods for Climate Change Impact Assessment and Adaptation Strategies Amsterdam: Institute for Environmental Studies Dien.T.V (2012) Indigenous knowledge and pratices in agriculture production of ethnic minorities adapted to climate change in Bac Kan province Sixth international conference on community-based adaptation, Ha Noi Edwards, Paul, G., Miller, Clark, A (2001) Changing the atmosphere: expert knowledge and environmental governance Cambridge, Mass: MIT Press ISBN 0-262-63219-5 FAO (2007) The state of the world’s 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Livestock Development, Life Network, International Union for Conservation of Nature & FAO Rome Garcia, A., Hoogenboom, G., Guerra, L C., Paz, J O., & Fraisse, C W (2006) Analysis of the interannual variation of peanut yield in Georgia using a dynamic crop simulation model, Transactions of the American Society of Agricultural and 43 n Biological Engineers, 49(6), pp 2005-2015 IPCC (1996) Summary for Policymakers Aviation and the Global Atmosphere A Special Report of IPCC Working Groups I and III in collaboration with the Scientific Assessment Panel to the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer Cambridge University Press, Cambridge and New York IPCC (2007) Climate change 2007 Impacts, adaptations and vulnerability Introduction Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press IPCC (2007) Summary for Policymakers In Solomon, S., Qin, D., Manning, M., Chen, Z., Marquis, M., Averyt, K B., Tignor, M., & Miller, H L Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Reportof the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Cambridge University Press ISBN 978-0-521-88009-1 (pb: 978-0-52170596-7) IPCC (2007) Solomon, S., Qin, D., Manning, M., Chen, Z., Marquis, M., Averyt, K B., Tignor, M., & Miller, H L., ed Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Cambridge University Press ISBN 978-0-521-88009-1 (pb: 978-0-521-70596-7) IPCC (2007) Core Writing Team, Pachauri, R K., and Reisinger, A., eds Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC ISBN 92-9169-122-4 IPCC (2001) Houghton, J T., Ding, Y., Griggs, D J., Noguer, M., Linden, P J., Dai, X., Maskell, K., & 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Bellow, Jones, J W., Hoogenboom, G (2007) Development of an ENSO-based irrigation decision support tool for peanut production in the southeastern US Computers and Electronics in Agriculture, 55(1), pp 28-35 Reilly, J., Tubiello, B., McCarl, D., Abler, R., Darwin, K., Fuglie, S., Holllinger, C., Izaurralde, S., Jagtap, J., Jones, L., Mearns, D., Ojima, E., Paul, K., Pastian, S., Riha, N., Rosenberg, & Rosenzweig, C (2003) U S Agriculture and Climate Change: New Results Climatic Change, 57, pp 43-69 Sagan, C., & Mullen, G (1972) Earth and Mars: Evolution of Atmospheres and Surface Temperatures 45 n Thomas, D S G., Twyman, C., Osbahr, H., & Hewitson (2007) Climate change, adaptation to climate change and variability: farmer responses to intra-seasonal precipitation trends in South Africa, pp 301-322 Thorburn, P J., Biggs, J S., Weier K L., & Keating, B A (2002a) Nitrate in groundwaters of intensive agricultural areas in coastal northeastern Australia Agric Ecosys Environ., in press Thorburn, P J., Dart, I K., Biggs, I J., Baillie, C P., Smith, M A., & Keating, B A (2002b) The fate of nitrogen applied to sugarcane by trickle irrigation Irrig Sci., in press Wagner & Frederic, H (2009) Climate Change in Western North America: Evidence and Environmental Effects ISBN 978-0-87480-906-0 Wheeler, T., & Braun, J (2013) Climate change impacts on global food security Science., 341(6145), pp 508–513 Zhen, L., & Routray, agricultural J K (2003) Operational sustainability indicators for measuring in developing countries Environ Manage, 32(1), pp 34–46 46 n APPENDICES APPENDIX 1: SAMPLE SURVEY ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT TO THE LOCAL PEOPLE PART I GENERAL INFORMATION 1.Name:…………………………………………………………………… Address:………………………………………………………………… Age:……………………Gender:……………… Ethnicity:…………… Telephone number:……………………………………………………… Interview time (DD/MM/YY):………………………………………… PART II ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT TO THE LOCAL PEOPLE Answers No Questionnaire Yes No Another Recommendation ( ) ( ) idea ( ) (if applicable) Land, local terrain of your area can easily be affected by climate change? Natural disasters have happened often over years? Your area living has been affected a lots by disaster? Do you use the flood n prevention and disaster measurement such as planting windbreaks, building embankments, etc.? Your locality had cropping models to cope with climate change? Did you get the information of climate change and how to mitigate it from the local authorities? How you think about the effect of those measurements to prevent or mitigate natural disasters and flood to deal with climate change in your neighborhood? Have you changed the structure of crops, plants and animals to adapt with climate change in your local area? Do you know what carbon dioxide is? ………………………………………………………………………………………… ……………………………………………………………………………………… 10 How you understand about extreme weather? n 11 Do you think climate change affects the economy and the quality of life for local communities and whole society? ………………………………………………………………………………………… ……………………………………………………………………………………… 12 How does climate change affect our livelihood? ………………………………………………………………………………………… ………………………………………………………………………………………… 13 Do you follow any policy from local authorities to adapt with climate change? ………………………………………………………………………………………… ……………………………………………………………………………………… 14 How often you get information from social media about climate change? ………………………………………………………………………………………… ……………………………………………………………………………………… 15 Do you have any solution for adapting to extreme weather in your community? ………………………………………………………………………………………… ………………………………………………………………………………………… 16 Do you think you will move to another place which is less affected by climate change than your recent place? ………………………………………………………………………………………… ……………………………………………………………………………………… 17 How your crop production affected by climate change? …………………………………………………… If you answer “Absolutely yes”, “It depends”, “Sometimes” or “Others”, please write the reasons below? ………………………………………………………………………………………… ………………………………………………………………………………………… Informed (Signature and full name) n APPENDIX 2: HOUSEHOLD SURVEY No of survey: Interview time: Householder: Age Ethnicity Address: ……………………………………………………………………… Career : I GENERAL INFORMATION Family sizes: The number of people in working aged (18 – 55 aged) Total income / Year of the family (thousand VND) Dominant income: Agriculture: Livestock: Service: Other revenues The total area of agricultural land use? .m2 • Rice field • Farm produces • Annual crops • Other crop types II LAND INFORMATION The total area……………… m2 Number of land plots ………………………Other information: No of land Cropping models plots n Area (m2/ The original Water acre/ ha) land purpose source • The original land purpose: 1: land allocation, 2: transferee, 3: inheritance • 4: bidding, : reclaim, : others • Water source: - Irrigation (a: fully, b: not full), - No irrigation III LAND USE SITUATION OF FARMERS FOR CULTIVATION 3.1 Cultivation Cropping Area (m2) Productivity (quintals / ha) Quantity (ton) Average price Amount (1000VND) (1000VND/kg) I Food crops II Industrial plants Sugarcane Others 3.2 Breed Pet Number (unit) The volume of products (kg) n Average price (VND/kg) Amount (1000VND) IV INVESTMENT, PRODUCTION COSTS 4.1 Crops Targets I Food crops Kg/acre (trees/acre) Breed (1000VND) Amount (1000VND) Kg/acre(trees/acre) Nitrogenous fertilizer Amount (1000VND) Kg/acre Phosphate (trees/acre) fertilizer Amount (1000VND) Materials Kg/acre (trees/acre) Potassium Amount (1000VND) Kg/acre (trees/acre) Pesticide Amount (1000VND) Irrigation charge (1000VND) Shipping, rent (1000VND) Others (1000VND) n II Crops 3 4.2 Breed Pet Number (unit) Breed Food Aquatic (1000VND) (1000VND) (1000VND) Labour Hire (1000VND) Others (1000VND) V LAND USE EFFICIENCY OF HOUSEHOLD Department Total revenue (1000VND) Cost of materials and hire labour (1000VND) Income (1000VND) I Food crops II Farm produces Others III Breed Buffalo Cows Pigs Chickens,ducks Others VI SCIENCE TECHNOLOGY RECEPTIVE SITUATION ON PRODUCE 6.1 Does your household involve in training on agricultural production? Yes No 6.2 Do the extension staff and administration often visit your family farm? Yes No n 6.3 Described the situation of agricultural product consumption in recent years? Product Ease of Average Difficulty of consumption consumption consumption (>75%) (50-75%) (