INTRODUCTION
The necessity of the research
Vietnam, located along the East Sea of the Pacific Ocean, boasts over 3,000 km of coastline but is highly vulnerable to climate change impacts In recent years, the country has experienced significant climate-related challenges, including rising sea levels, increased temperatures, and more frequent hydro-climatic disasters These issues are exacerbated by Vietnam's geographic position and complex hydrological systems With agriculture playing a crucial role in the economy, contributing over 12% to the national GDP and providing employment for 24 million people, the effects of climate change pose serious risks to the nation's livelihood.
In 2021, Vietnam produced around 43.9 million metric tons of rice, establishing itself as one of the largest rice exporters globally (Nguyen & Scrimgeour, 2022) The Vietnamese Mekong River Delta (VMRD) contributes over 50% of the nation's rice yield and is recognized as one of the most intensively cultivated deltas in the world (Nguyen et al., 2022).
The low-lying landform of the Mekong River Delta (MRD) makes it particularly susceptible to the impacts of climate change and natural disasters The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) highlights several climate risks for agriculture, including rising temperatures, altered rainfall patterns, ocean acidification, reduced oxygen levels, and increased frequency of extreme weather events such as storms, cyclones, droughts, and floods In the MRD, these risks manifest as rising sea levels and intensified flooding, which contribute to saltwater intrusion and a scarcity of freshwater resources.
The VMRD region faces significant challenges due to frequent flooding and inundation, which greatly impact rice harvests According to Nguyen et al (2007), local farmers attribute their low yields and crop losses to insufficient flood control systems and damaged crops, highlighting that flooding has nearly become a yearly event in many areas.
The central and north-central coasts are susceptible to flooding and strong currents, posing significant risks to property, human life, irrigation systems, and public infrastructure These hazards are exacerbated by dyke breaches, strong winds, and sea waves, particularly affecting farmers living near the coast who face threats from storm-induced sea surges (Nguyen et al., 2007) Additionally, seawater intrusion (SWI) is a critical issue in the VMRD, as the tidal levels of the Mekong River are lower than the high tide at sea, causing the river's flow to reverse with the tides and allowing saltwater to intrude inland (Thuy & Anh).
Salinity and erosion issues are significant concerns as seawater can intrude up to 70 kilometers inland during the dry season, altering the landscape's spatial organization This salinity affects the properties of water and soil, disrupts nutrient flow, and poses a threat to rice farming, which is particularly vulnerable due to its low tolerance to salinity.
The VMRD experiences a complex interplay between climate risks, land use and land cover (LULC) changes, and shifts in cropping patterns Climate risks like floods and sea-level rise significantly influence LULC changes, including land erosion and the conversion of agricultural areas Conversely, LULC changes can impact local climate conditions, intensifying climate risks Additionally, alterations in cropping patterns, such as the transition from traditional rice cultivation to other crops, are shaped by both climate risks and land-use transformations These shifts affect agricultural productivity, food security, and the sustainability of the VMRD Thus, comprehending and managing the interactions among climate risks, LULC changes, and cropping patterns is essential for promoting sustainable development and effective adaptation strategies in the region.
Understanding the climate risks associated with MRD's agriculture is crucial due to its significance and vulnerability The relationship between cropping patterns and climate is deeply interconnected, with each influencing the other Thus, the objective is to develop more resilient cropping practices to effectively cope with these climate challenges.
The fluctuation of cropping patterns in the region can be analyzed through time-series imagery observation methods This analysis reveals the underlying reasons for changes in cropping patterns over the years and their relationship to local climate risks The goal is to promote more resilient and sustainable cropping practices tailored to each area's unique conditions.
Literature review
1.2.1 Climate-risks in Vietnamese Mekong River Delta
Climate risks encompass the adverse effects of climate change on both the natural environment and human society, including sudden events like floods, droughts, and storms, as well as gradual changes in temperature, precipitation patterns, and sea-level rise These risks significantly impact agriculture, water resources, infrastructure, and public health A 2019 World Bank study, "Climate Change and Migration in Coastal Vietnam," highlighted floods, droughts, and sea-level rise as the primary climate risks in the region.
The Mekong Delta in Vietnam is highly vulnerable to various climate risks, including floods, droughts, saltwater intrusion, and land erosion These environmental challenges pose significant threats to the region's infrastructure, economy, and public health, jeopardizing the livelihoods of local communities.
This research will focus on the following climate risks: floods, droughts, and SWI
The Vietnamese Mekong River Delta is highly vulnerable to floods due to its low-lying topography, making it a significant climate risk in the region Climate change is expected to exacerbate this issue by increasing the frequency and severity of extreme weather events, including floods In recent years, the region has experienced more frequent and severe floods, with a notable instance being the 2011 severe flood, which had a return period of 10 to 20 years, highlighting the urgent need for climate resilience measures in the area.
Commission (2018), the economic losses in the Mekong Delta of VN due to flooding have an average annual cost of $71 million
Droughts in the VMRD are increasingly frequent and severe due to climate change, particularly during the dry season, which adversely affects crop yields and water availability for households, industry, and agriculture (Tran et al., 2019) Research by Thilakarathne & Sridhar (2017) highlights that droughts significantly diminish crop productivity and threaten food security Additionally, these drought conditions can lead to soil and water degradation, further worsening the negative effects on agriculture and livelihoods in the region.
Saltwater intrusion (SWI) poses a significant climate risk in the VMRD, especially during the dry season when river water levels drop This phenomenon is driven by factors such as rising sea levels, diminished river flow, and land subsidence In recent years, SWI has expanded, impacting extensive agricultural areas and leading to various social and economic challenges The effects extend beyond agriculture, degrading soil quality and reducing agricultural productivity, which in turn lowers farmers' incomes Additionally, SWI threatens drinking water quality, posing health risks, particularly for individuals with kidney disease The intrusion of saltwater also compromises infrastructure, damaging roads and bridges, which disrupts transportation and economic activities in the region.
Figure 1-1: Flooding period by percentage of area in VMRD from 2000 to 2022 (GIS data)
Various climate data sources, such as meteorological stations, satellite observations, climate models, and research studies, offer crucial insights into temperature, rainfall, sea-level rise, and other climate-related factors Recently, there has been a growing emphasis on understanding climate risks in the VMRD, leading to enhanced efforts in data collection, analysis, and mapping of these risks in the region.
The Vietnamese government has made significant strides in addressing climate risks through the development of CS-MAP (Climate-Smart Mapping and Planning) This initiative aims to map and analyze the vulnerabilities associated with climate change while identifying effective adaptation and mitigation strategies for sustainable development CS-MAP employs a participatory approach, engaging stakeholders from various sectors, including the Department of Agriculture and Rural Development, national research institutes, and local administrative levels, to foster collaborative discussions and enhance the effectiveness of climate risk management (Yen et al., 2019).
Wassmann et al (2019) conducted one of the most remarkable studies to create a high- resolution mapping for floods and SWI in VMRD to help farmers decide on rice
Flooding period by percentage of area in VMRD from
6 cropping They also categorized provinces and cities in VMRD into flood-prone or salinity-prone areas (Figure 1-2) based on the duration of the risks in the areas
Figure 1-2: Provincial flood and salinity risk in VMRD
Research on climate risks in VMRD has seen significant growth due to increased awareness, improved data availability from sources like satellite imagery and remote sensing, and advancements in technologies such as GIS and modeling techniques Despite these advancements, challenges remain, including data gaps and quality issues in certain local areas, a lack of localized analysis, difficulties in stakeholder engagement and knowledge transfer, and obstacles in translating research findings into actionable measures.
7 policies in both regional and local levels; (5) restraints in resources (funding and technical capacities) to conduct further research and carry out the action plan
1.2.2 Cropping pattern in Vietnamese Mekong River Delta
The cropping landscape in the VMRD, as detailed in the 2020 FAO report, is primarily characterized by rice production, which occupies approximately 70% of the total cropland While maize, sweet potato, cassava, and various vegetables are also grown, they represent a smaller fraction of the agricultural output Recent trends indicate a shift in cropping patterns, with a reduction in rice cultivation and a rise in the acreage devoted to alternative crops This transformation is driven by evolving market demands, advancements in mechanization and irrigation, and the effects of climate change on agricultural practices.
Among many different definitions of cropping pattern, Bégué et al (2018)gave out a comprehensive model to explain the cropping system that is the premise for analyzing the cropping pattern (Figure 1-3) h
Figure 1-3: Typology and short definitions of the cropping system components
Cropping patterns in Vietnam, particularly for rice, encompass the number of crops grown annually and their sequence, which includes the timing of planting, growth, and harvesting The two primary rice cropping seasons in Vietnam are the summer-autumn (SA) and winter-spring (WS) seasons Climatic conditions significantly impact crop growth and yield, making favorable weather essential for high productivity (Huynh et al., 2020) Consequently, the number of crops planted each year can fluctuate based on annual climate conditions, sewage release dates, and provincial regulations The three main cropping patterns practiced in the Vietnam Mekong River Delta (VMRD) are single cropping (one crop per year), double cropping (two crops per year), and triple cropping (three crops per year) Although cropping calendars differ by location, the statistical report identifies three primary cropping seasons in VMRD and Vietnam: the spring season beginning in November or December, the autumn season starting in April, and the winter season commencing in May or June Additionally, rice production schedules in the Mekong River Delta vary by province, influenced by hydrological regimes and irrigation systems (Thuy & Anh, 2015).
Farmers in regions with completed dike systems can cultivate rice for three to four seasons annually, even in flood-prone or coastal areas In contrast, areas without these dike systems typically allow for only two rice seasons each year.
1.2.2.2 Vulnerability of rice production in Vietnamese Mekong River Delta
Concerns about the impacts of climate change (CC) on rice production in the Mekong Delta region (VMRD) are growing, leading to an increase in studies focused on this vulnerability, as VMRD is Vietnam's largest rice-producing area Research indicates that climate change is expected to significantly reduce rice yields, with projections suggesting a potential annual decrease of around 35% in rain-fed rice crop production compared to current levels (Chun et al., 2016; Jiang et al., 2019).
Flooding is identified as the most significant risk in VMRD, according to a study by Nguyen et al (2007) It not only reduces crop yields but can also lead to complete crop loss, severely impacting farmers' livelihoods Additionally, floods disrupt planting and harvesting schedules, resulting in the loss of seedlings and harvests Consequently, farmers may face the need to replant or delay their planting, which can cause long-term changes in the cropping calendar and necessitate adjustments in planting times, ultimately shifting cropping patterns in the region.
Flooding not only has immediate consequences but also triggers secondary effects on cropping systems The inundation can result in soil erosion and sediment deposition, which diminishes soil fertility and hampers crop growth Additionally, floods heighten the risk of crop diseases and pest infestations, adversely affecting both crop yields and quality.
Research by Thuy & Anh (2015) reveals that coastal regions in the VMRD are particularly vulnerable to climate change, facing heightened risks from extreme weather events due to their proximity to the sea The study indicates a concerning correlation between flooding and saltwater intrusion (SWI), emphasizing that without effective adaptation and mitigation strategies, the anticipated increase in extreme events could severely impact rice production in these already vulnerable coastal areas The findings underscore the urgent need for proactive measures to safeguard the paddy fields of VMRD against the adverse effects of climate change.
10 decrease by 2050 by 6% in the spring yield, 2% in the autumn yield, and 4% in the winter yield
Scope of the research
This study focuses on analyzing remote sensing data for the VMRD region, which includes 13 provincial units, such as Can Tho city, from 2000 to 2022 The insights gained from this data will enhance our understanding of cropping patterns and the impacts of climate risks in the area.
Narrowing down multiple climate risks into two main ones: flooding and SWI, this paper will analyze and discuss the two provinces that typically suffer from the risks:
In An Giang, flooding impacts agricultural practices, while in Tra Vinh, the focus is on Sustainable Water Management (SWI) By analyzing collected data and referencing previous reports and studies, we will evaluate the success of current cropping patterns and any changes made to them.
Since rice is the dominant crop in VMRD, this paper will also focus on this crop to analyze the rice cropping pattern adaptability to climate risks in the region
Thereby, the research will mainly discuss the effects and future recommendations for VMRD areas' rice cropping production.
Research questions and hypotheses
The questions and hypotheses of this research are summarised in the table below:
Table 1-3:Researching questions and hypotheses
How do the cropping patterns change throughout the years?
From the remote sensing data, we can see the cropping pattern change throughout the years We shall see the increase/ decrease of the triple-cropping pattern in different areas
How do the cropping patterns changes relate to the climate risks?
The cropping patterns changes are different from different risk-prone areas and also result from the LULC changes where there are dikes or where there is land erosion/SWI
What are the optimal measures for adaptation in the cropping pattern to climate risks in VMRD?
The effectiveness of the triple-cropping pattern remains a topic of debate, highlighting the need to evaluate its advantages and disadvantages It is crucial to explore the best practices for rice cultivation within the VMRD region to optimize yields and sustainability.
Research objectives
From the research questions, hypotheses above, and the scope, this research targets the following objectives:
The objective is to analyze cropping patterns using time-series remote sensing data This involves collecting and processing relevant data, utilizing software tools for visualization and extraction, and conducting a thorough analysis of the data Additionally, the study will focus on examining changes in cropping systems over time.
The objective of this analysis is to assess climate risks in the VMRD region, focusing on flooding and saltwater intrusion (SWI) This involves gathering data from remote sensing and previous research assessments to identify and categorize disaster-prone areas A comparative analysis will be conducted to highlight the differences in climate risk profiles between An Giang, which is predominantly flood-prone, and Tra Vinh, which is primarily affected by saltwater intrusion.
Objective 3: Assessing the impact of climate risks on the cropping patterns in
An Giang and Tra Vinh h
17 o Analyze the changes in cropping pattern in flooding area - An Giang province o Analyze the changes in cropping pattern in SWI area – Tra Vinh province
Objective 4: Propose resilient cropping practices o Analyze the efficiency and problems of triple cropping pattern in VMRD o Recommend some approach for more sustainable cropping practices in VMRD
Study area
The VMRD, the largest delta in southern Vietnam, features a coastline of over 732 km and is bordered by the Gulf of Thailand to the west and the East Sea to the east It shares its northern border with Cambodia and is home to Ho Chi Minh City in the northwest This delta encompasses one city, Can Tho, along with 12 provinces: Long An, Tien Giang, Ben Tre, Vinh Long, Tra Vinh, Hau Giang, Soc Trang, Dong Thap, An Giang, Kien Giang, Bạc Lieu, and Ca Mau.
According to the 2020 yearbook from the Vietnamese General Statistics Office, the Mekong River Delta (VMRD) has a population of 17,318,600, covering 12.32% of Vietnam's land area with 40,816 km² Agricultural land in VMRD spans 2.615 million hectares, accounting for 64% of its total area, primarily focused on paddy cultivation and aquaculture In 2020, the agricultural sector employed 43.3% of the national workforce The region's flat terrain, featuring two significant low-lying areas—Dong Thap Muoi and Northeast Ca Mau peninsula—along with its rich plains, extensive canal system, and long coastline, create an ideal environment for agriculture Known as "Vietnam's Rice Bowl," VMRD produces over 40% of the nation's agricultural output, including 54% of rice and 90% of rice exports, while contributing 17.7% to the country's GDP in 2019.
The Mekong Delta region (VMRD) features a consistently high climate, with temperatures averaging between 25°C and 27°C year-round This area enjoys approximately 6 to 7 hours of sunshine daily, contributing to significant evaporation rates.
The region experiences an annual rainfall of 1,000 to 1,300mm, accompanied by a relative humidity of 78-82% The average annual temperature ranges between 27.5 to 27.8°C, with March and April being the hottest months, where daytime temperatures can soar between 28 to 35°C From June to February, temperatures typically remain above 20°C, providing a mild climate during these months.
Between 2000 and 2020, the Mekong Delta experienced an average annual rainfall of 1,733mm, with the Ca Mau peninsula receiving the highest amounts, ranging from 1,400 to 2,200mm The region's total rainwater resources are estimated at 65.4 billion m³ per year However, over the past two decades, certain monitoring stations have reported a 10-15% decline in annual rainfall.
Rainfall in the region exhibits significant spatial variation, with the West Coast receiving the highest average annual precipitation of 2,000-2,400mm in Camau and South Kiengiang In contrast, the East Coast sees a decrease, averaging 1,700-1,800mm in Bac Lieu and Soc Trang The area between the Hau and Tien rivers, including Angiang and Tiengiang, records the lowest average rainfall, while the Northeast, particularly in Tan An and Moc Hoa, averages 1,600-1,800mm.
The agriculture development plan for the VMRD focuses on reducing rice production while enhancing fruit yield and aquaculture, alongside promoting ecotourism This strategic direction, approved by the government, aims to reorganize agricultural practices to adapt to changing environmental conditions across three distinct ecological sub-regions.
Figure 1-7: 3 ecological sub-regions for agricultural development plan in VMRD
(adapted from (Mekong Delta Plan, 2013))
Table 1-4: Approved agriculture development plan in VMRD period of 2011-2025
Ecological zone Administrative areas Strategic agriculture development plan
Freshwater ecological zone in the upstream and central part of the delta
An Giang, Dong Thap, Hau Giang, Vinh Long, Can Tho city and a section of Kien Giang, Soc Trang, Tra Vinh, Ben Tre, Tien Giang, Long
The Mekong Delta is vital for rice, freshwater aquatic products, and fruit production, offering protection against floods and inundation This region aims to foster diverse, innovative, and sustainable agricultural practices that adapt to severe environmental challenges.
Ecological zone Administrative areas Strategic agriculture development plan floods and helps VMRD region control and absorb floods
The freshwater-brackish transitional area is located in the central region of the VMRD, encompassing the provinces of Kien Giang, Ca Mau, Bac Lieu, Soc Trang, Tra Vinh, Ben Tre, Tien Giang, and Long An.
Developing marine navigation Specialized brackish water production and rotation with rice and vegetables suitable to seasonal water conditions
Coastal saline - brackish ecological zones
Ca Mau, Bac Lieu, Soc Trang, Tra Vinh, Ben Tre, Tien Giang, and Long An
To enhance saltwater aquaculture and saline-brackish water production along coastlines, it is essential to integrate fishing practices with the restoration and development of coastal mangrove forests, ensuring biodiversity protection Additionally, promoting an ecological and organic agro-forestry system that complements ecotourism is crucial Proactive measures must be taken to prevent and mitigate the risks associated with natural disasters, climate change, and rising sea levels.
According to Wassmann et al (2019), the research highlights distinct climate risks faced by An Giang and Tra Vinh, with An Giang primarily impacted by flooding, while Tra Vinh is significantly affected by saltwater intrusion (SWI) Situated on Vietnam's low-lying coast, Tra Vinh is among the most vulnerable provinces to SWI in both the Vietnam Mekong River Delta (VMRD) and the country, leading to severe adverse effects on local ecosystems and agriculture.
22 province's agricultural production (Dang et al., 2020; Karila et al., 2014; Nguyen et al.,
The impacts of saltwater intrusion (SWI) are severe, creating a hostile environment that degrades soil metabolism and harms both plantations and soil organisms According to Nguyen et al (2020), climate change effects, including sea level rise, SWI, and drought, are significantly affecting Tra Vinh province, particularly increasing soil salinity in lower-lying areas like estuaries and coastal regions Consequently, agricultural practices in Tra Vinh Province are undergoing changes To ensure the sustainability of agriculture and economic growth in the region, it is crucial to develop adaptive measures to combat rising soil salinity.
Figure 1-8: SWI leading to soil salinity map with the depth from 0 cm to 20 cm in Tra Vinh province, VMRD, VN (Nguyen et al., 2020)
An Giang, located in the upstream section of Vietnam's Lower Mekong River basin, faces distinct climate risks compared to Tra Vinh Flooding is a prevalent issue in this province; however, it is effectively managed through a robust dike infrastructure system.
2019) Thanks to this system, farmers in this province are able to practice intensified cropping, which produces more than 80% rice in the whole delta (Chapman & Darby,
Figure 1-9: An Giang and Tra Vinh in administrative map
Figure 1-10: Dike area in An Giang Province, VN, in 2014
The framework of the research
This research is conducted based on the logical framework in Figure 1-11 below The data is collected, processed, and analyzed remotely but validated by the field-trip
This research study explores the relationship between shifts in cropping patterns and climate-related risks It evaluates how adaptable these cropping patterns are in reducing such risks and highlights effective agricultural practices tailored for various climate-affected regions.
24 these three aspects, the study provides valuable insights into the dynamics and effectiveness of cropping pattern adaptations in response to climate risks
Figure 1-11: The logical framework of the research h
DATA AND METHODS
Data used
Listed below are the data used in this research:
- Topographical data: The river network and LULC change maps are collected from the regional and provincial statistical reports
- Climate risks data: From desk review method and remote sensing data
Remote sensing data, specifically the 8-day time-series information gathered from MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) and LANDSAT observation satellite systems, enables the analysis of Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) and Land Surface Water Index (LSWI) to determine crop frequency, inundation periods, and sowing, heading, and harvesting dates Additionally, Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) data from LANDSAT is utilized to examine LULC changes from 2001 to 2021.
This article analyzes social development data, including population distribution and economic growth, derived from regional and provincial statistical reports It focuses on crop production while incorporating insights from in-depth interviews with local residents to explore changes in cropping patterns, their responses, and recommendations for adapting to climate change.
Methods
After collecting the data, it is essential to process and analyze data in this research Several methods were used to collect data as well as analyze them
Both primary and secondary data were collected and then analyzed through the following methods:
2.2.1 Remote sensing data collection and analysis
Remote sensing data from LANDSAT has been utilized to analyze land use and land cover (LULC) changes in the VMRD between 2001 and 2021 The study involves classifying each pixel in the satellite images according to its spectral characteristics For this classification, the research employs the IGBP (International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme) scheme.
Programme) to classify LULC It categorizes land cover into 17 classes with the color code presented below
Table 2-1: IGBP classification scheme and RGB color code for LULC map
Urban and Built-up Lands 13 rgb(0, 255, 255)
Cropland/Natural Vegetation Mo- saics 14 rgb(244, 107, 244)
Permanent Snow and Ice 15 rgb(255, 255, 243)
Time-series satellite image analysis technology is employed to assess changes in cropping patterns and flooding situations, utilizing observation data from MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer), an optical sensor on NASA's Terra and Aqua satellites launched in December 1999 and May 2002, respectively These satellites continue to provide daily images of the study area, crossing the equator at 10:30 AM and 1:30 PM MODIS captures data across 36 bands, ranging from 0.4 to 14 μm, with spatial resolutions of 250 m, 500 m, and 1000 m Despite a 16-day return period, the wide observation swath of 2,330 km allows for near-daily image acquisition of the same location In this study, the 250m pixel resolution MODIS noiseless data product MCD19Q2 is utilized, which includes 250m-8 days of NDVI, EVI, and LSWI A demonstration of the data acquisition dates is provided in Table 2-2, with a detailed acquisition date table available in Appendix F Images are captured every eight days throughout the study period.
Table 2-2: MODIS data acquisition date table
The growth status of agricultural crops is assessed through a vegetation index, which reflects the health of plants (Sakamoto et al., 2009) Healthy plants appear green to the human eye due to chlorophyll, which reflects green wavelengths while absorbing blue, red, and near-infrared wavelengths This unique reflection and absorption pattern forms the basis of the vegetation index, providing a reliable measure of plant vitality.
The value of 29, derived from normalizing the reflectance difference between the red and near-infrared regions, effectively captures the vegetation conditions in the study area.
In this study, Enhanced Vegetation Index is used as a vegetation index (EVI) was used EVI is calculated by Equation (1) using MODIS's ground surface reflection data
The spectral analysis of Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) reveals the cropping frequency within a year, with the X-axis representing the days of the observation period As illustrated in Figure 2-1, each peak in the EVI spectral data corresponds to a single crop cycle, as the EVI reaches its maximum only once per crop Consequently, by counting the peaks, we can estimate the total number of crops cultivated annually.
In the context of remote sensing, NIR refers to the near-infrared reflectance, while RED and BLUE correspond to the red and blue wavelengths of visible light, respectively The blue wavelengths play a crucial role in the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) by correcting for atmospheric effects Key parameters include C1 and C2, which are aerosol correction factors, L as the vegetation canopy background correction factor, and G as the gain factor, with values set at L=1, C1=6, C2=7.5, and G=2.5.
To effectively detect flooding periods, it is essential to utilize both the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) and the Land Surface Water Index (LSWI) The LSWI calculation, particularly its sensitivity to moisture content, relies heavily on surface reflectance values in the short-wave infrared band, specifically band 6 (Sakamoto et al., 2009).
This study utilizes QGIS (Quantum GIS), a free and open-source desktop GIS software, to analyze LANDSAT and MODIS data QGIS enables users to create, edit, visualize, and publish geospatial information, facilitating the investigation of land use and land cover (LULC) changes, climate risk scenarios, and cropping patterns in the study area.
The Ground Truth Observation (GTO) method is essential for validating the accuracy of remotely sensed data by collecting actual measurements on-site This process involves visiting the study area to gather data on land cover, vegetation, and topography, which helps calibrate and validate remote sensing information GTO is particularly crucial in regions with complex terrain or mixed land use, where remote sensing data may be challenging to interpret By employing the GTO method, the accuracy and reliability of remote sensing data can be significantly enhanced, benefiting applications in environmental monitoring, land use planning, and natural resource management.
In this study, the author conducted onsite observations at VMRD, following a predetermined schedule and route outlined in Table 1-1 and Figure 2-2 Utilizing a GoPro camera, the author captured roadside scenes while integrating GPS plugins from QGIS to accurately document the coordinates of the collected media, including photos and videos This basic setup focused exclusively on roadside data to facilitate comparisons with remote sensing data Due to the fixed route, the author could only observe from within the vehicle, limiting visits to various land use and land cover (LULC) types and cropping patterns Randomly selected points were used to validate the remote sensing data against the land use and land cover map created from the remote sensing analysis.
Table 2-3: GTO field trip schedule in VMRD (March 2023)
Fieldwork from Long An to HCMC
Fieldwork from Long An to HCMC
Evening Go back to Can Tho Go back to Can Tho Go back to Can Tho Go back to Ha Noi
Figure 2-2: GTO in VMRD route (blue line)
To validate remote sensing data, images of specific locations were captured with GPS coordinates and subsequently compared with corresponding raster data in QGIS The validation process, illustrated in Figures 2-3, involved comparing photographs taken during the GTO field trip with land use data and other indices to assess the accuracy of the remote sensing data in real-world scenarios.
Figure 2-3: GTO validation process from 1 point
The agreement between the GTO and remote sensing data shows partial confirmation, though correlation is limited by methodological constraints This approach has provided the author with valuable insights and knowledge regarding VMRD, supporting the research phenomena and hypotheses in the study area In An Giang province, the GTO identified a closed dike system for rice cultivation, whereas Tra Vinh exhibited drier conditions with reduced rice cropping areas Additionally, the sewage system for salinity control in Tra Vinh differs significantly from that in An Giang Site visits, involving local authorities, confirmed the occurrence of land erosion in the coastal regions of Tra Vinh.
Figure 2-4: GTO route in Tra Vinh and An Giang (pictures for each location are attached and can be accessed via Google Earth)
To validate satellite imagery, an accuracy assessment was conducted using randomly selected photos of paddy fields in An Giang and Tra Vinh provinces The rice growth stages were classified based on research by Minh et al (2019) and Ramadhani et al (2020) into four categories: 0 = no data (preparation and post-harvest), 1 = vegetative stage, 2 = reproductive stage (highest green coverage), and 3 = maturity stage (indicating readiness for harvest) This growth stage index was compared with the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) and heading dates from MODIS data The results presented in Tables 2-4 and 2-5 confirmed the effectiveness of GTO and MODIS analyses, particularly regarding the EVI.
Table 2-4: EVI accuracy assessment of Tra Vinh province points
Point no Route Date DOY Code Coordinate: E Coordinate: N Growth stage EVI
Point no Route Date DOY Code Coordinate: E Coordinate: N Growth stage EVI
Table 2-5: Accuracy assessment of An Giang province points
Point no Route Date DOY Code Coordinate: E Coordinate: N Growth stage EVI
The detailed assessment table with photos is presented in Appendix G and H The photos were assessed based on the rice growth stages’ visualization example from Ramadhani et al (2020) in Figure 2-5
Figure 2-5: The example of rice growth stages and other rice field conditions in the paddy field area (Ramadhani et al., 2020)
Besides EVI, we can also assess the accuracy with heading dates when the EVI is collected the highest The rice’s vegetative stage is about 35-55 days after sowing h
The analysis of 35 dates indicates that the subsequent stages each last approximately 30 days (Minh et al., 2019), allowing us to assess the accuracy of the stage at the time the photo was taken However, this comparison serves only as a reference, as the duration may vary among different rice varieties The results derived from Tables 2-6 and 2-7 highlight the estimation's accuracy, although the method employed is quite rudimentary.
An Giang: 8 valid points out of 10 observation points
Tra Vinh: 15 valid points in 18 observation points
Table 2-6: Heading dates accuracy assessment of Tra Vinh province points
Route Date DOY Code Coordinate:
Evaluating the degree of agreement Good=1, Bad=0
Route Date DOY Code Coordinate:
Evaluating the degree of agreement Good=1, Bad=0
Table 2-7: Heading dates accuracy assessment of An Giang province points
No Route Date DOY Code Coordinate:
Evaluating the degree of agreement Good=1, Bad=0
Numerous respected studies have confirmed the effectiveness of using MODIS and remote sensing data to analyze cropping patterns and assess climate risks (Kotera, 2022; Kotera et al., 2014, 2016, 2015; Minh et al., 2019; Sakamoto et al.).
2009) the methodology employed in this research, which involves collecting, processing, and analyzing MODIS data, can be regarded as reliable and robust
RESULTS
Cropping pattern changes in Vietnamese Mekong River Delta
This part will mainly discuss the changes in cropping pattern in VMRD to answer the research question, ―How do the cropping patterns changes throughout the years?‖
The compilation of Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) maps from 2001 to 2021 in the VMRD, as depicted in Figure 3-1, visually represents the patterns of LULC change Figure 3-2 further illustrates the trend lines for various land classifications based on the collected data However, the data does not provide a clear indication of whether cropland in this region is experiencing a decrease.
Figure 3-1: LULC maps from 2001 to 2021 in VMRD h
Figure 3-2: LULC change in VMRD from 2001 to 2021 (GIS data)
Therefore, statistical data from different provinces are collected regarding planted areas of paddy in VMRD from 2001 to 2021, and the differences are presented in
Recent data indicates that while the overall cropping area in the region has seen a slight increase of less than 3%, the land use trends for paddy cultivation are markedly different.
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 ar ea (s qua re k m ) year
LULC change in VMRD from 2001-2021
Evergreen Needleleaf Forests Evergreen Broadleaf Forests Deciduous Broadleaf Forests Mixed Forests
Croplands Urban and Built-up Lands
Cropland/Natural Vegetation Mo- saics Barren
Differences in planted area of paddy by provinces in the whole period from 2001 to 2021 (% and ha) h
Figure 3 3: Differences in planted area of paddy by provinces in the whole period from
The map analysis reveals a strong correlation between the geographical location of provinces and the variations in planted paddy areas Coastal regions, particularly affected by saltwater intrusion (SWI), show a notable decline in cropping areas In contrast, provinces that have significantly invested in dike construction, such as An Giang with a 36% increase and Dong Thap with over 23%, have experienced substantial growth in paddy cultivation.
Figure 3-3: Map of changes in planted area of paddy in VMRD by provinces from
Annual maps of cropping patterns in the VMRD region from 2000 to 2022, derived from MODIS data, reveal significant changes, as illustrated in Figures 3-4 and 3-5 Notably, there has been an increase in triple cropping and a corresponding decrease in double cropping The maps indicate a decline in green areas in the inland, upper regions of the delta, particularly in An Giang, Dong Thap, and Kien Giang, signifying a rise in cropping frequency to triple cropping in these locations.
To support three rice crops annually, towering dikes are implemented to protect extensive areas of land, exemplified by the improved high dikes in An Giang province.
Figure 3-4: Cropping frequency changes in VMRD from 2000 to 2022
Figure 3-5: Yearly cropping frequency in VMRD from 2000 to 2022 (GIS data)
Recent shifts in rice cropping patterns in the VMRD highlight a trend toward intensified rice cultivation in the inland and upper delta regions, particularly in An Giang, Kien Giang, and Dong Thap This intensification is facilitated by improved hydrological infrastructure that allows farmers to cultivate rice year-round, effectively managing flooding conditions Conversely, rice cultivation has diminished in both frequency and area in coastal regions like Tra Vinh, Ben Tre, Ca Mau, and Tien Giang, where saltwater intrusion (SWI) poses significant challenges In these areas, traditional rice varieties struggle to thrive, making rice farming an unsuitable livelihood These developments underscore the vulnerability of rice cropping systems to climate-related risks in the VMRD.
Cropping pattern changes adapting to climate risks
This section examines the alterations in cropping patterns across various regions, focusing on their correlation with climate risks The analysis aims to answer the research question: "How do changes in cropping patterns relate to climate risks?" The findings are represented by two equations: y = -234.77x + 480637 with an R² value of 0.6777, and y = 269.48x - 535434 with an R² value of 0.6929, indicating a significant relationship between cropping pattern changes and climate risk factors.
Yearly cropping frequency in VMRD from 2000 to 2022 single crop double crop triple crop Linear (double crop) Linear (triple crop) h
3.2.1 Cropping pattern changes adapting to floods
An Giang, along with Dong Thap, Long An, and Can Tho, is a flood-prone province with minimal risk from saltwater intrusion (SWI) This section focuses on An Giang, which has the highest rice yield and flood risk in the delta, analyzing the relationship between cropping pattern changes and flooding adaptation Between 2011 and 2016, significant flooding challenges were observed in An Giang To combat these issues, a dike system was constructed to protect rice paddies from inundation during flood season, while also retaining sediments and nutrients The implementation of closed dikes in 2011 led to a notable reduction in flooding periods by 2012 Further enhancements, including the elevation of dikes in 2014, resulted in a substantial decrease in flooding days in An Giang during 2014 and 2015, especially in areas protected by high closed dikes, where flooding became rare.
Figure 3-6: Maps of the number of flooding days in An Giang province from 2008 to 2015
The construction of dikes has significantly enhanced rice yields for farmers in flood-prone areas, particularly in An Giang, where the enforcement of dikes has reduced flooding periods This has led to an increase in rice cropping frequency, especially in high-dike-protected regions such as Thoai Son district and southern Chau Thanh district Notably, there has been a shift from double cropping to triple cropping in An Giang, illustrating the positive impact of dike construction on agricultural productivity.
46 Figure 3-7: Maps of cropping frequency in An Giang province from 2008 to 2015 h
Figure 3-8: Cropping frequency changing trend in An Giang province from 2010 to 2015 (GIS data)
The intensification of rice cropping in An Giang has led to increased production during this period To mitigate flood risks while enhancing rice cultivation, the dike system is essential to the province's land use planning and agricultural strategies, serving as a model for the entire region This shift in cropping patterns reflects the need to adapt to climate risks, land use policies, and provincial agricultural strategies.
Yearly cropping frequency in An Giang from 2010 to 2015 single crop double crop triple crop
Linear (single crop) Linear (double crop) Linear (triple crop) h
Figure 3-9: Production of paddy in An Giang from 2010 to 2015 (statistical data)
3.2.2 Cropping pattern changes adapting to other climate risks
In addition to flooding, VMRD faces various climate risks, particularly in coastal regions where rising sea levels lead to saltwater intrusion (SWI) and land erosion, significantly impacting land cover and soil quality Tra Vinh exemplifies a coastal province grappling with these challenges.
Analysis of LULC maps from 2001 to 2021 reveals a notable increase in dry land types, such as barren areas and savannas, particularly in the coastal regions of Chau Thanh district near the Co Chien River and Duyen Hai district, located at the easternmost edge of Tra Vinh's coastal zones Despite these changes, the cropland area remained relatively stable, highlighting the limitations of remote sensing data, which primarily relies on color recognition and classification for identifying cropland.
Production of paddy in An Giang from 2010 to 2015
Figure 3-10: LULC maps in Tra Vinh from 2001 to 2021
The climate risks in Tra Vinh and An Giang differ significantly due to their geographical locations An Giang is a flood-prone area, as evidenced by the increased number of inundation days in 2000, while Tra Vinh remains largely dry with minimal flooding The implementation of a closed dike system in An Giang has mitigated flooding, resulting in only short flood periods by 2015 In contrast, Tra Vinh's inland regions continue to experience very few inundation days However, areas adjacent to the Co Chien River and coastal districts like Cau Ngang and Duyen Hai have seen a notable rise in inundation levels, not from traditional flooding but due to sea level rise and land conversion to aquaculture ponds This increase in inundation days in these wetlands reduces the availability of land for cropping, potentially impacting agricultural activities in Tra Vinh province overall.
From 2000 to 2022, Tra Vinh experienced a significant decline in rice cropping area, with a reduction of over 13%, equating to 31.4 thousand hectares, as illustrated in Figure 3-13 In contrast, An Giang saw a modest increase of nearly 4%, or 9 thousand hectares, due to the ongoing implementation of dikes This disparity highlights the detrimental impact on rice production in Tra Vinh compared to An Giang.
Figure 3-12: Planted area for paddy in Tra Vinh province from 2001 to 2021
The cropping pattern in Tra Vinh has undergone notable changes over the years, with an increase in triple cropping and a decrease in double cropping, despite the region being less suitable for rice cultivation compared to An Giang Overall, the total cropping area in Tra Vinh has significantly declined, particularly in the coastal regions affected by saltwater intrusion (SWI), which makes rice farming challenging Consequently, there has been a shift towards intensified cropping practices in the more favorable inland areas, indicating a relocation of paddy land away from the coastal zones impacted by SWI.
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 tho us and ha year Planted area of paddy in Tra Vinh from 2001 to 2021 h
Figure 3-13: Cropping frequency in Tra Vinh province from 2000 to 2022 (GIS data)
From 2000 to 2022, cropping frequency maps in Tra Vinh province reveal significant adaptations in farming practices in response to climate risks and land use/land cover (LULC) changes Analyzing the provinces of An Giang and Tra Vinh indicates that farmers are actively modifying their cropping patterns, either increasing or decreasing the number of crops cultivated, to better cope with these environmental challenges The statistical models demonstrate varying degrees of correlation, highlighting the complexity of these adaptations.
Cropping frequency in Tra Vinh province from 2000 to 2022 single cropping double cropping triple cropping total cropping area Linear (double cropping) Linear (triple cropping)
Farmers can cultivate up to 53 different crops annually, tailored to their specific needs, local conditions, climate risks, and soil and water availability Understanding the dynamic relationship between cropping patterns and environmental changes is crucial for authorities and communities This knowledge enables the development of effective land use plans, policies, and agricultural strategies that help adapt to climate change.
DISCUSSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
Assessing the cropping pattern changes’ efficiency
Cropping patterns significantly impact agricultural productivity by influencing crop yield quality and the use of inputs like water, fertilizers, and pesticides Implementing crop diversification and rotation enhances soil health, reduces pests and diseases, and ultimately leads to higher yields In contrast, monoculture can result in soil degradation, decreased yields, and increased pest pressures Utilizing double or triple-cropping systems optimizes resource use, including land and water, thereby boosting productivity Therefore, careful selection and management of cropping patterns are essential for sustainable and productive agriculture.
The choice to increase annual crop production can stem from various motivations, but it often lacks efficiency from both environmental and economic perspectives While many farmers engage in triple cropping with the belief that it will enhance their output and profits, the reality is that this practice does not necessarily lead to higher average yields throughout the year.
From 2001 to 2014, certain provinces in the VMRD, such as Dong Thap, Tien Giang, Vinh Long, and Ca Mau, transitioned from intensified cropping to double cropping, significantly boosting their average yields Despite facing challenges from saltwater intrusion (SWI), coastal provinces like Tra Vinh and Tien Giang have managed to adapt their agricultural practices effectively.
55 conducts double cropping, considered a balanced cropping practice, it had a higher average yield of the year compared to Tra Vinh and previously intensified practice
A comparison of cropping practices in Dong Thap and An Giang's protected dike areas reveals the most effective cropping patterns Research by Tong (2017) categorizes triple cropping as "intensive cropping" and double cropping as "balanced cropping," highlighting the distinct agricultural approaches in these two provinces.
In An Giang, triple cropping is prevalent, while Dong Thap favors double cropping due to its lower costs and higher benefits, as evidenced by Table 1-1 The average yield in Dong Thap surpasses that of An Giang, supporting this conclusion Additionally, triple cropping incurs higher expenses for fertilizers and pesticides, likely due to the continuous cropping cycle that depletes soil health and increases disease risks This intensified approach not only raises costs but also poses threats of land degradation, pollution, and health hazards.
In regions facing SWI risks, transitioning from a triple cropping to a double cropping system or decreasing rice cultivation is advisable Nonetheless, the most effective cropping patterns that can achieve optimal efficiency and balance in flood-prone areas with dike systems remain a topic of ongoing debate.
Problems with triple cropping pattern
The triple cropping pattern in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta, while increasing rice production, is not a sustainable development strategy This practice relies on towering dikes to support three rice crops annually, which has led to significant environmental issues and high costs (Tran et al., 2018) Additionally, the trade-offs necessary for triple cropping can result in severe consequences, particularly due to the high dike system (Tran et al., 2022) In regions like An Giang and Dong Thap, these dikes block nutrient flow and disrupt water circulation, creating abnormal hydrological conditions that negatively affect the ecosystem in the middle and lower parts of the delta.
The practice of triple cropping in high-dike areas poses significant threats to ecosystem balance, contributing to the decline of fish and other species Stagnant water in these regions is more susceptible to pollution, increasing the risk of diseases affecting both plants and animals Moreover, research by Tran et al (2018) indicates that the long-term economic benefits for rice farmers are questionable, as the costs associated with fertilizers, pesticides, pumping, and dike reinforcement may outweigh any potential profits Ultimately, the environmental and economic risks associated with high-dike areas and triple cropping practices warrant serious consideration.
Recommendations
The cropping patterns in VMRD are evolving to mitigate climate risks, showcasing their adaptability to climate change While some adaptations have proven successful, others may pose potential challenges.
In Tra Vinh, where soil salinity intrusion (SWI) is a significant challenge, optimizing agricultural practices involves reducing rice cropping frequency and land area This necessitates a transition to more resilient crops, such as bamboo and timber, although these have lower economic value A more advantageous approach is to cultivate higher-value fruit trees like jackfruit, mango, and the drought-resistant king seedless orange, which has seen increased cultivation in 2023 Additionally, in coastal regions with unproductive paddy fields affected by SWI, converting these areas into aquaculture ponds presents a viable alternative for sustainable farming.
In high diked regions such as An Giang, implementing alternative farming systems can enhance profits while preserving environmental conditions A key strategy involves reducing rice crops from three to two annually, while incorporating flood-resistant varieties like lotus alongside natural fish farming to boost profitability Conversely, in low-dike areas, cultivating one crop of floating rice with a rotation of vegetables proves to be more advantageous than relying on two mono-crop rice cycles These alternative practices can significantly improve agricultural sustainability and economic returns.
Farmers' income can significantly increase by incorporating triple cropping methods Additionally, rotating or intercropping soybean, squash, and vegetables with rice not only diversifies income but also enhances soil health In intensified cropping areas, it's essential to allow rest periods for the soil to recover, preventing resource overexploitation and promoting long-term sustainability.
Figure 4-2: Paddy and orange intercropping in Tra Vinh Province (GTO)
Figure 4-3: Lotus pond combined with paddy field in Long An Province (GTO) h
Figure 4-4: Inefficient paddy fields transformed into land for installing solar power panels in An Giang Province (GTO)
To effectively manage rice cropping frequency, it is crucial to align with the land use and development plans of provinces and regions The development plan, as shown in Table 1-4 (adapted from Chi, 2022), emphasizes ecological features and the impacts of climate change on sub-regions, while also considering farmers' cropping patterns However, a lack of uniformity in cropping pattern changes exists across the sub-region and the VMRD, primarily due to disparities in access to government subsidies, seedlings, and modern farming techniques Consequently, regional, provincial, and communal committees must collaborate to equip local communities with the necessary information, training, and resources to adapt their cropping patterns in compliance with regulations, effectively addressing climate risks and ensuring sustainable livelihoods.
Advanced farming techniques, such as the use of organic fertilizers and the alternate wet and dry irrigation method for rice, can significantly lower production costs while enhancing yield These sustainable practices not only improve agricultural efficiency but also promote environmental health.
59 sustainably With these methods, intensified cropping can still be implemented with lower expenses and is more environmentally friendly
Figure 4-5: Advertisement material for sustainable agriculture approach in VMRD:
3 reductions 3 gains (left), and 1 must-do 5 reductions (right) h
CONCLUSION
Conclusion
A research study utilized a time series of satellite images from MODIS and Landsat, spanning from 2001 to 2021, to analyze cropping patterns in the VMRD region The study highlights the changes in these patterns resulting from two significant climate risks: saltwater intrusion and flooding.
Image processing results reveal that triple cropping has increased while double cropping has decreased at a similar rate Additionally, data from field trips indicate that the expansion of dike systems is facilitating this rise in triple cropping.
Farmers often adapt to climate risks by altering their cropping practices, particularly through the use of triple cropping However, it is recommended to limit this approach and instead focus on strategies that align with local ecological characteristics, climate challenges, development goals, and the individual plans of farmers.
To mitigate the effects of climate change and associated risks such as flooding, salt intrusion, and rising sea levels, it is essential to adopt improved agricultural practices Key strategies include land conversion, transitioning from traditional agriculture to aquaculture, and implementing crop rotation.
Intensified cropping patterns in VMRD present significant environmental and economic challenges However, adopting advanced farming techniques and promoting sustainable practices can help mitigate these risks, paving the way for a more sustainable future.
The integration of rice-aquaculture models in the VMRD offers significant potential, addressing challenges like sea-level rise and salt intrusion By harnessing the natural synergies between rice cultivation and aquaculture, these models can improve resource utilization, enhance ecosystem services, and increase resilience to climate-related risks.
In summary, by implementing these recommended measures, the VMRD can bolster its agricultural adaptability and resilience in the face of climate risks It is crucial to h
To promote sustainable agriculture, it is essential to move away from unsustainable practices like triple cropping and adopt more balanced methods such as double cropping and rice-aquaculture integration These strategies will foster a diversified and modern agricultural sector that can effectively manage extreme floods while also enhancing flood regulation and absorption in the VMRD.
Limitations and future outlooks
This research study explores the evolving cropping patterns in the VMRD due to climate risks, leveraging remote sensing data for analysis It highlights the adaptive strategies of farmers while emphasizing the importance of including the perspectives and decision-making processes of key stakeholders, particularly farmers, to fully understand the motivations behind these changes.
To strengthen the validity of the research findings, it is essential to gather additional resources and employ diverse data collection methods Conducting social surveys and interviews with local farmers in high-diked areas of An Giang and coastal and inland regions of Tra Vinh will provide critical insights into their adaptive strategies By documenting these farmers' firsthand experiences, challenges, and aspirations, the study will enhance its outcomes, facilitating a more nuanced analysis of the changes in cropping patterns.
The study highlights potential discrepancies between GIS data and actual on-ground conditions, emphasizing the necessity for further investigation to identify whether these differences arise from methodological limitations or other factors Addressing these issues is essential for ensuring the accuracy and reliability of the dataset, ultimately providing a more comprehensive representation of cropping pattern changes in response to climate risks in the VMRD.
This research enhances our understanding of how cropping patterns adapt to climate risks while highlighting areas for future investigation Further studies should explore the specific adaptations of cropping systems to diverse climate challenges across various provinces in the VMRD A particular emphasis on freshwater-brackish zones, coupled with in-depth analyses, could provide critical insights into the intricate relationships between climate risks, agricultural practices, and adaptive strategies in the region.
This research study offers valuable insights into how cropping patterns in the VMRD are adapting to climate risks By emphasizing the importance of farmers' perspectives and acknowledging data limitations, it enriches the understanding of climate change adaptation in agriculture Additionally, the study identifies key areas for future research, encouraging further exploration of cropping pattern adaptations across various regions and climate challenges in the VMRD.
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