INTRODUCTION 1 The background of the research topic Vietnam is widely cited as one of the five countries in the world most heavily affected by climate change In recent time, we have been affected by t[.]
1 INTRODUCTION The background of the research topic Vietnam is widely cited as one of the five countries in the world most heavily affected by climate change In recent time, we have been affected by the unusual manifestations of climate change such as a rise in sea levels , heat waves, turbulent storms, floods especially in coastal areas The coastal areas are most vulnerable to the impact of climate change In spite of the limitations of the adaptive capacity of the coastal inhabitants residing in geographic areas that are vulnerable to natural disasters, resources are scarce to cope with climate change Moreover, their income is mainly from livelihood activities that are vulnerable to the impacts of climate change such as agriculture, fisheries and forestry TienHai, a coastal district in the Thai Binh province with a coastline of over 23 kms has three large estuaries that flow into the sea: Ba Lat, Lan and Tra Ly TienHai has many advantages to develop agriculture with these geographical characteristics With the district located next to the sea and bordered by big rivers, it faces a couple of potential risks, especially in the context that climate change is unpredictable Recently, people are continuously suffer ing from the effects of extreme weather phenomena such as storms, floods and tropical depressions Specifically, many strong tropical storms destroyed mangrove forests, coastal ecosystems affecting the agriculture and fisheries of the locals Severe and prolonged exposure to extreme cold in Thai Binh increased the frequency of natural disasters and extreme weather, which has directly affected agricultural, forestry and fisheries production Global warming causes insects to transmit widespread diseases that affect livestock in many places and this cause anxiety among farmers for they cannot be assured when it comes to production development It also results in the gradual growth of plants and that too has affected the harvest season Active adaptation to the negative impacts of climate change is an important and necessary task of the farmers With the dissertation title being: "Adaptation to Climate Change in the Agricultural Sector of People Living in the Coastal Area of the Tien Hai district, Thai Binh Province", the researcher would like to find out more on the activities that farmers in TienHai coastal area apply in adapting to climate change impacts Moreover, this work also explores kind of resources they mobilize during the adapting process to climate change in their local communities Research purposes The purpose of the research is to study the theoretical and practical basis in clarifying adaptaion measures and factors influence on adaptation measures choices to climate change of people living in coastal area The results of the research are the development of programs that would to propose solutions in enhancing the efficiency of adaptation to climate change in coastal areas Research tasks (1) Understanding the impacts of climate change on cultivation, animal animal husbandry, aquaculture and fisheries in coastal areas of the TienHai district; (2) Exploring adaptation measures to climate change of people living in coastal in Tien Hai district in the fields of cultivation, animal animal husbandry, aquaculture and fisheries; (3) Clarifying factors determining the adaptation measure choices of households living in coastal area of the TienHai district Research subjects, objects and research scope 4.1 Research subjects: Adaptation to climate change in the agricultural sector of people living in coastal area of Tien Hai district, Thai Binh province 4.2 Research objects: Research objects are households living coastal areas in TienHai district, Thai Binh involved in the production, cultivation, animal animal husbandry, aquaculture and fisheries The officials of district, commune and village living in TienHai district, Thai Binh province were selected for in depth interviews in order to gain in depth information to answer research questions 4.3 Research scope: - Scope of content: households’adaptation in cultivation, animal husbandry, aquaculture and fisheries - Spatial scope: two selected coastal villages in Tien Hai: Dong Hoang and Nam Thinh - Scope of time: from 2010 to 2017 Research questions, research hypotheses, research variables and framework 5.1 Research questions Question 1: Through the experience of coastal residents in TienHai district, how does climate change affect cultivation, animal husbandry, aquaculture and fisheries based on people’s evaluation living in the coastal areas? Question 2: How people living in coastal areas in TienHai district adapt to the effects of climate change in cultivation, animal husbandry, aquaculture and fisheries? Question 3: What factors affect the choices of adaptation measures to climate change of people living in the coastal areas of the TienHai district? 5.2 Research hypotheses Hypothesis 1: Climate change results in extreme climatic weather events such as storms, floods, unusually high temperature and saline intrusion that negatively affects the cultivation, animal husbandry, aquaculture and fisheries of households in Tien Hai coastal area It has challenged the farming process, reduced productivity and production Hypothesis 2: People living in the TienHai coastal area based on consideration of different types of capital in the community, such as economic capital (family economic conditions), human capital (age, education), social capital (relatives, friends, etc.) are introduced to different adaptation measures to climate change in cultivation, animal husbandry, aquaculture and fisheries such as changing production technique and diversifying livelihoods Hypothesis 3: Household and community characteristics such as household size, economic capital (family economic condition), human capital (age, education), social capital (human network relatives, friends, etc.) are factors that affect adaptation measures choice to climate change of people living in Tien Hai coastal areas 5.3 Research variables Independent variables - Number of generations living in household - Household size: is measured by the number of people in the household, the number of members in working age, the number of members in working age has a job - Household's economic condition: is the current economic condition of the household comparing to the others in village (poor / average / well-off) - Economic type: pure agriculture, mixed (both agricultural and non-agricultural) - Participate in climate change training courses: yes / no - Gain more experiences from others: yes / no - Business cooperation with other households: yes / no - Dependent variables: Adaptation activities of people to climate change in cultivation, animal husbandry, aquaculture and fisheries These adaptation activities are classified into three models/groups: - Change production technique/methods - Transfer to another livelihood activities - Accept damages - Intervention variables + Social – economic conditions of localities + Viewpoints of the Party, the State on climate change adaptation 5.4 Research framework Climate change Independent variables - Number of generations - Household’s size - Economic condition - Type of economic - Gain more experience from others - Business cooperation with other household - Participating in climate change training courses - Age, gender, education level… Dependent variables Adaptation to climate change in cultivation, animal husbandry, aquaculture and fisheries - Change production technique/methods - Transfer to another livelihood activities - Accept damages Social – economic conditions of localities Strategies, policies related to climate change Theoretical and practical meanings of the dissertation 6.1 Theoretical meanings The theoretical meaning of the thesis is shown in two aspects Firstly, the research provides a new approach - that is the sociological perspective to climate change adaptation of coastal habitants As basis, it will contribute to the expansion of the scientific – based knowledge on the relationship between climate change and specific local communities Secondly, the research applies sociological theoretical perspectives to analyze and interpret qualitative and quantitative data that were collected from the field trip Hence, this result will help in generating, at a certain level, some points of view in the theoretical aspect of the adaptive process of coastal habitants to climate change 6.2 Practical meanings The practical meaning of the thesis is shown in two points First, the research provides many qualitative and quantitative data on the reality of climate change impacts and the adaptation to climate change of coastal people in the fields of cultivation, animal husbandry, aquaculture and fisheries The results help managers to establish a sufficient basis in making appropriate management decisions in all fields related to climate change Secondly, through analyzing and interpreting datas, the thesis proposes a number of recommendations to improve the efficiency of adaptation to climate change in cultivation, animal husbandry, aquaculture and fisheries of people living in the coastal areas These recommendations are not only useful for managers in practical activities but also useful for local people in the process of adapting to climate change Structure of the dissertation The dissertation consists of three main parts: introduction, content and conclusion Aside from the introduction, conclusions and appendices, the dissertation has four chapters Chapter is Literature review Chapter presents the rationale, study area, and research methodology Chapter and chapter clarify the Status of climate change in the studied area, the impact of climate change on cultivation, animal husbandry, aquaculture and fisheries These two chapters also show how local people adapt to climate change in in cultivation, husbandry, aquaculture and fisheries as well as the influence factors to these adaptive ways 6 Chapter LITERATURE REVIEW 1.1 ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN CULTIVATION, ANIMAL HUSBANDARY 1.1.1 Adaptation to climate change in cultivation It was showed from the conducted studies that: Climate change has a serious affect on people’s cultivation activities such as reducing cultivated areas, reducing productivity and production, spreading of disease in trees and crop failure In response to these affects, farmers introduced different adaptation mesuares The main adaptation measures are changing type of trees, changing farming techniques, changing crop structure or shifting to other production activities such as aquaculture, working as hired labor in other industries 1.1.2 Adaptation to climate change in animal husbandary The conducted studies show that climate change resulted in extreme weather events also cause many losses to livestock production such as damaging infrastructure, causing death or or gradual growth for livestock Climate change also threatens the environment, limits the supply of food and drinks, reduces resistance and spreads disease for livestock To mitigate these damages, households focus on changing breeds, changing farming techniques, investing in food and disease prevention, reducing the production size and finding non-farm jobs to work 1.2 ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN AQUACULTURE AND FISHERIES 1.2.1 Adaptation to climate change in aquaculture Conducted studies show that climate change goes along with increasing extreme weather has been heavily influenced on aquaculture Therefore, coastal people have found many different ways to adapt to this situation Adaptation methods focus mainly on farming techniques, changing breeds, changing farming structure, upgrading farming infrastructure 1.2.2 Adaptation to climate change in fisheries Conducted studies show that with unpredictable changes of the weather and over-exploitation in fishery leading to the decline in near-shore seafood resources Hence, fishermen must introduce many adapting measures like by watching weather forecasts so they will be aware and well-informed as this is a basis for planning their future fishing The traditional fishing experience in the past is no longer appropriate to the current sudden changes of the weather Some families with higher economic conditions have to change fishing positions, or equip more advanced fishing equipment and improve fishing ship’s capacity 1.3 Factors influence on adapting to climate change 1.3.1 Demographic factors Many conducted studies show the relationship between social demographic factors and adaptation activities These demographic characteristics of households decide to adjust or select adaptive activities such as gender, age and education levels 1.3.2 Social capital factors Many studies show the importance of social capital factors such as networks of friends, neighbors and relatives in supporting each other both physically and mentally in adaptive activities 1.4 Some conclusions were draw from literature review The literature review helps the authors to apply and makes use the past researches as it helps to explore and exploit the theoretical and practical gaps in order to bring a sociological approach to climate change adaptation Specifically, the dissertation will explore the effects of climate change and adaptation measure of farmers to climate change, how social factors (social resources) affect on choosing adaptive measures In addition, the dissertation also explores how the social network of people is utilized in the adaptation process Chapter THEORETICAL BASIS, PRACTICE AND RESEARCH METHODS 2.1 BASIC STUDY CONCEPTS 2.1.1 Climate change The study is based on the concept of the United Nations Framework Convention to understand climate change: Climate change means a change of climate, which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods 2.1.2 Adaptation to climate change Dissertation base on definition of The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2001): adaptation to climate change as adjustments in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities 8 From this definition, the dissertation gave adaptation models: - Change techniques/ measures include: changing seeds / breeds, changing seasonal calendar, changing fishing areas, changing techniques / production methods - Transfer/move to other livelihood activities: moving to other industries, moving to other localities, - Accept damages: "Do nothing" or "Do not give any adaptation measures" 2.1.3 Community Communities are people living in defined geographical areas, sharing common interests and supporting each other, sharing common values, norms and benefits together 2.1.4 Community – based adaptation In this study, the author uses the concept of IIED: Community-based adaptation to climate change is the process of community plays a key role, based on capacity, knowledge, needs and priorities Community priorities to empower people to plan, and respond to the affects of climate change 2.1.5 Adaptive capacity Adaptive capacity reflects the ability of a system or society to regulate or respond to climate change in order to achieve three objectives: (i) reduce vulnerability caused by climate change, (ii) mitigating possible damages, and (iii) taking advantage of new opportunities from climate change 2.1.6 Livelihood and sustainable livelihood According to Chambers & Conway (1991): Livelihoods include capacity, assets (reserves, resources, needs, and access) and needed activities to ensure the means of subsistence: Livelihoods are sustainable only when they can cope with and recover from shocks, maintain or improve capacity and assets, and provide sustainable livelihood opportunities for future generations; and contribute net benefits to other livelihoods at the local or global level, in the short and long term 2.2 THEORETICAL APPROACHES IN RESEARCH 2.2.1 Adaptation to climate change from sustainable livelihood framework approach (DFID’s) According to this framework, people who live and survive in the context of vulnerability, they normally face shocks, risks, irregularities These things directly affect their livelihood and life Therefore, to overcome and ensure that every household must have a livelihood strategy based on the available resources in certain local socio-economic and policy contexts Using DFID's approach, the research will focus on understanding and analyzing the way people introduced types of capital in the local context to cope with the weather and introduce livelihood strategies to adapt to that climate change 2.2.2 Social network theory Using the theory and social network approach in adaptation to climate change to identify types of social relations that individuals seek to information exchange.and learning or finding ways to support each other in adaptation For households in general and coastal households in the study area in particular, social networks are relations of relatives, neighbors, friends, acquaintances, governments, socio-political organizations and peer groups This network of relations is both a spiritual support and resources can be utilized in the process of adapting to climate change Through these networks, households can learn to exchange information, improve knowledge, skills, or exchange and mobilize resources 2.2.3 Theory of rational choice The theory of rational choice assumes that people always act deliberately to think and use resources in a rational way to achieve the best results It means, before making a decision, people often put it on scale to measure and calculate the advantageous face Since then, based on each situation and their own conditions to take action or not Applying the theory of rational choice helps the author to orient and explain the households’ behavior in choosing the adaptive methods To face to affects of climate change, households must consider, choose, and calculate the appropriate forms of how to maximize their interests based on their own capabilities 2.3 RESEARCH AREA CHARACTERISTICS 2.3.1 Geographical - natural conditions The topography of the district is gradually tilted from the Northeast to the Southwest, shaped like a basin with two clear areas: lowland in the interior and high land in the coastal area Tien Hai has an advantage geographical position and resources on the surface, in-ground and offshore, facilitating the development of a diversified economy 2.3.2 Socio-economic conditions The district has an important strategic position in politics, economy, defense security and has strengths in agricultural production In recent 10 years, the economic growth rate has increased significantly Specifically, agricultural and fisheries production has increased rapidly in recent years, the aquaculture area and the boat number has increased rapidly in quality and quantity 2.3.3 Climate change in Tien Hai district Climate change and its manifestations in TienHai district such as storms, floods, droughts, floods, inundation and saline intrusion is taking place complicatedly and unpredictably Therefore, plants and livestock in the research area seriously affected These causes challenges to the lives of people 2.4 RESEARCH METHODS 2.4.1 Analysis of available documents To get more information, knowledge, dissertation author analysis and study the content of documents related to the current situation, impacts and activities to respond to climate change such as: articles, books, newspapers, reports; statistical reports of provinces - districts – communes 2.4.2 Observation To have more completed and accurate information, the study used observations to explore how climate change has been taking place, household’s livelihoods and how people adapt to climate change 2.4.3 In-depth interview In-depth interview is used for all process of information collection It consists of three steps: Step 1: Preliminary research and evaluate the study area: conducting in-depth interviews help to collect information at research area, build scale and questionnaires Step 2: In-depth interviews are conducted during the process of collecting quantitative data in order to collect more information such as reasons, causes and purposes of adaptation activities Step 3: In-depth interviews are conducted after collecting and analyzing quantitative information In this stage, in-depth interviews help to explain and demonstrate the collected quantitative data This helps to analyze and explain more specifically The object of in-depth interviews includes households, districtcommune-village officials 2.4.4 Questionnaire survey 11 In order to provide data for the dissertation, the study conducted a structured questionnaire survey for households involved in cultivation / animal husbandry / aquaculture / fisheies Specifically, questionnaires are given to those who directly participate in the above tasks in the household in order to collect practical information aiming to gain the set forth requirement contents The questionnaires will address the following problems: impacts of climate change on livelihood activities through the experiences of local people, forms of livelihood activities to respond to climate change, resources mobilized in the response process 2.4.5 Sample size and sampling method Geographic characteristics of selected sample Tien Hai consists of coastal communes: Dong Hai, Dong Long, Dong Hoang, Dong Minh, Nam Cuong, Nam Thinh, Nam Hung, Nam Phu, with an estimated number of 11,745 households Their main livelihood activities are agricultural related to the sea are, including: cultivation, animal animal husbandry, aquaculture and fishing - Sample size The sample size is calculated from the formula: n 0.5) z2( p.q ) e2 n = Inside: n = is the sample size z = distribution value: with 95% confidence level, z value is 1.96 p = is the percentage estimated of the population (assuming p = q = 1-p (= 0.5) e = allowable error (+ -5%) From the above formula, we can calculate the sample size: 385 households and rounded up to 400 households Sampling method: Samples are selected according to the 2-stage cluster sampling method: Phase 1: From eight coastal communes of TienHai district, by the random sampling with replacement method, the author selected two communes: Dong Hoang and Nam Thinh Phase 2: From these two communes, the author makes a sample list of each commune: 12 Dong Hoang Commune has about 1234 households, including seven hamlets: Bach Long, Chi Trung, Dong Hoang, Hai Long, My Duc, Tan Lac, Vu Xa The population among villages is relatively equal in number (author used excel sofware to make list,this list is arranged according to the name of the household head and following alphabetical order of each commune, then connecting the list of each hamlet as following: Bach Long, Chi Trung, Dong Hoang, Hai Long, My Duc, Tan Lac, Vu Xa) Nam Thinh commune: about 1712 households, including hamlets: Quang Thinh, Dong Lac, Hop Chau, Thien Chau, Thien Tuong The population between villages is relatively equal in number The sample list of Nam Thinh Commune was made similar to Dong Hoang Commune The dissertation sampling list is the sample list of these two communes connected together (linked from the first household to the last household of Nam Thinh commune connecting with the first household to the last household of Dong Hoang commune) Households chosen based on the jump k = N / n = (2946/400) = Selecting the first household of Nam Thinh commune to study, every seven households in the list choose researcher until enough sample size 2.4.6 Data analyzing and processing method Data processing Quantitative data was collected from questionnaires then were analyzed and processed using SPSS 16.0 on the computer Data analyzing The study focused on analyzing the following contents: Influence of climate change on people's production activities: in this section, the study help to understand affects of climate change manifestations on production activity (cultivation, animal husbandry, aquaculture and fisheries) through indicators developed for each of these fields Adaptation activities of people in each production field to response to the impacts of climate change: The study focused on analyzing the activities introduced by majority, understanding the correlation between adaptive activities with the household resources To explore the factors that influence on the selection of adaptation activities In order to gain this, the study uses correlation analysis with verification and logistic regression models of relevant factors, this 13 contributed to explain the households’behavior in choosing adaptation measures Chapter ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN CULTIVATION AND ANIMAL HUSBANDARY In this chapter, the study provides a picture of the district's factual climate change through the information provided by the functional units of province, district and from interviewing officials and farmers In addition, the research assessed the impacts of climate change on agricultural production through the farmers ‘experiences on the affects of unusual weather manifestations occurring on production activities.Based on collected datas, to find out what methods people use and what kind of resources they mobilize to adapt to those influences 3.1 ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN CULTIVATION 3.1.1 Impacts of climate change on cultivation The research process shows many extreme weather events specific manifestations of climate change taking place in the study sites impacts on crops Specifically, people in the study areas said extreme weather events such as: saline intrusion, "brass monkey", scorching hot, floods, droughts, and storms caused serious impacts on their rice and cereals crops For rice, in the surveyed area, people cultivate two crops: spring and 'Mua' crops However, productivity is almost unstable due to depending on climate conditions For cereals crops, the situation is similar to rice Many area of cereals crops are affected by weather and climate conditions: crop productivity decreased, plants died 3.1.2 Adaptation measures in cultivation 14 In the affects (effects) of extreme weather phenomena people venture themselves in many activities in order to adapt and to mitigate the damages Survey results show that people use different adaptation measures such as cost investment, labor allocation, seeds changing, crop structure-changing, adjustment of seasonal calendar, applying new farming techniques, increasing or decreasing cultivated areas, transferring to other jobs, move to other localities etc Therefore the highest proportion of activity is seed changing (83.8%) and moving to other jobs (72.3%), the rest falls into changing the seasonal calendar (77.7%), applying for new farming techniques (28.5%), changing crop structure (26.2%), inquiring for more workers (30.8%), accounting for a smaller percentage of chosen measures namely: shifting some workers to other localities to business, invest more cost, reduce / increase the cultivated area The study also shows that, to adapt to farming activities, people use social networks to learn and seek information For example, they base on the government to provide information on seeds and seasonal calendars; basing on the relationship of relatives, neighbors, friends to be supported arranging employees, market finding and looking for other job opportunities 3.1.3 Factors affecting the choice of adaptation measures incultivation In order to understand the relationship between factors relating to adaption activities choice in the cultivation, the study explores the verifiable correlation, logistic regression model between factors family and social resources with adaptive activities Within the scope of this subsection, the study mainly analyzes the factors affecting the methods applied by people with the highest rate For the adaptive measures: changing crop seeds, changing the seasonal calendar, farmers have mainly based on government policy themes, so there is not much difference between every groups However, for the adaptation measures of "changing plant seeds", there were different between the group that has participated in training on climate change and the group that has never participated, although the difference is relatively small, but getting statistical significance (p