Sinh kế bền vững trong nuôi trồng thủy sản các tỉnh ven biển Đồng bằng sông Hồng thích ứng xâm nhập mặn.Sinh kế bền vững trong nuôi trồng thủy sản các tỉnh ven biển Đồng bằng sông Hồng thích ứng xâm nhập mặn.Sinh kế bền vững trong nuôi trồng thủy sản các tỉnh ven biển Đồng bằng sông Hồng thích ứng xâm nhập mặn.Sinh kế bền vững trong nuôi trồng thủy sản các tỉnh ven biển Đồng bằng sông Hồng thích ứng xâm nhập mặn.Sinh kế bền vững trong nuôi trồng thủy sản các tỉnh ven biển Đồng bằng sông Hồng thích ứng xâm nhập mặn.Sinh kế bền vững trong nuôi trồng thủy sản các tỉnh ven biển Đồng bằng sông Hồng thích ứng xâm nhập mặn.Sinh kế bền vững trong nuôi trồng thủy sản các tỉnh ven biển Đồng bằng sông Hồng thích ứng xâm nhập mặn.Sinh kế bền vững trong nuôi trồng thủy sản các tỉnh ven biển Đồng bằng sông Hồng thích ứng xâm nhập mặn.Sinh kế bền vững trong nuôi trồng thủy sản các tỉnh ven biển Đồng bằng sông Hồng thích ứng xâm nhập mặn.Sinh kế bền vững trong nuôi trồng thủy sản các tỉnh ven biển Đồng bằng sông Hồng thích ứng xâm nhập mặn.Sinh kế bền vững trong nuôi trồng thủy sản các tỉnh ven biển Đồng bằng sông Hồng thích ứng xâm nhập mặn.Sinh kế bền vững trong nuôi trồng thủy sản các tỉnh ven biển Đồng bằng sông Hồng thích ứng xâm nhập mặn.Sinh kế bền vững trong nuôi trồng thủy sản các tỉnh ven biển Đồng bằng sông Hồng thích ứng xâm nhập mặn.Sinh kế bền vững trong nuôi trồng thủy sản các tỉnh ven biển Đồng bằng sông Hồng thích ứng xâm nhập mặn.Sinh kế bền vững trong nuôi trồng thủy sản các tỉnh ven biển Đồng bằng sông Hồng thích ứng xâm nhập mặn.VIETNAM ACADEMY OF SOCIAL SCIENCES GRADUATE ACADEMY OF SOCIAL SCIENCES PHAN KHANH DUONG SUSTAINABLE LIVELIHOODS IN AQUACULTURE IN COASTAL PROVINCES OF THE RED RIVER DELTA IN ADAPTATION TO SALINE INSTR.
VIETNAM ACADEMY OF SOCIAL SCIENCES GRADUATE ACADEMY OF SOCIAL SCIENCES - PHAN KHANH DUONG SUSTAINABLE LIVELIHOODS IN AQUACULTURE IN COASTAL PROVINCES OF THE RED RIVER DELTA IN ADAPTATION TO SALINE INSTRUSTION Major: Economics Major code: 31 01 01 SUMARY OF DOCTORAL THESIS IN ECONOMICS HANOI - 2023 The thesis is completed at: GRADUATE ACADEMY OF SOCIAL SCIENCES VIETNAM ACADEMY OF SOCIAL SCIENCES Supervisors: Dr Tran Ngoc Ngoan Assos Prof Dr Nguyen An Thinh Referee 1: Assos Prof Dr Le Bo Linh Referee 2: Assos Prof Dr Bui Tat Thang Referee 3: Prof Dr Do Duc Binh The thesis will be examined by Thesis Grading Committee at the Academy level, at Academy of Social Sciences, Vietnam Academy of Social Sciences, 477 Nguyen Trai, Thanh Xuan, Hanoi At hour date month year … Be able to search the thesis at: - National Library - Graduate Academy of Social Sciences Library INTRODUCTION The necessity of the research In the context of climate change and the consequences of climate change increasingly profoundly affecting the current economic and social life, the study of sustainable livelihoods adapting to the change of the natural environment is a necessary and important condition Especially for developing countries, which are highly dependent on natural conditions, their ability to respond to climate change is still as low as Vietnam's Vietnam has 28 coastal provinces with a coastline of 3260 km, the coastal area is home to dynamic economies, creating livelihoods for millions of people In coastal areas, aquaculture is one of the key economic sectors, leading in economic growth As of 2021, the population of the coastal provinces of the Red River Delta (including provinces and cities: Quang Ninh, Hai Phong, Ninh Binh, Nam Dinh, Thai Binh) is about 8,142,900 people (accounting for 35% of the total population of the Red River Delta provinces) The above mentioned coastal community is about 2.45 million people (30% of the population in the coastal provinces of the Red River Delta) engaged in production, mainly in the fields of agriculture, aquaculture and fishing In recent years, aquaculture activities in the direction of intensive farming have been applied, bringing high economic efficiency, creating jobs and significant income for households in coastal areas in the coastal provinces of the Red River Delta The development of the aquaculture industry also contributes to changing the economic structure of the coastal provinces of the Red River Delta towards modernity, making the economic and social life have positive changes families escape poverty through aquaculture For the socio-economic development of Vietnam, aquaculture activities in the coastal provinces of the Red River Delta play an important role such as providing food and ensuring food security for Northen ; contribute to hunger eradication, poverty reduction, creation of new jobs, restructuring of agriculture and rural areas; increase the efficiency of using land and water surface; important export source, bringing in a large source of foreign currency; contribute to ensuring national sovereignty and national security One of the problems that aquaculture farmers as well as managers of coastal provinces in the Red River Delta are facing is saline intrusion This is not a temporary phenomenon but has been happening in most of the coastal provinces of the Red River Delta Saltwater intrusion has affected many aspects of aquaculture production such as changing water surface area, changing water quality, and losing suitable habitat for many aquatic species Saline intrusion has strongly affected the life and traditional production methods of aquaculture people The negative impact of saline intrusion reduces the aquaculture capacity of the coastal area of the Red River Delta Overcoming the consequences of saline intrusion faces many difficulties due to complicated and unpredictable developments Therefore, the issue of sustainable development of aquaculture in the coastal provinces of the Red River Delta in the context of saline intrusion in order to limit damage and take advantage of opportunities is necessary Stemming from the above reasons, the author has chosen the topic for the doctoral thesis in economics: "Sustainable livelihoods in aquaculture in the coastal provinces of the Red River Delta in adaptation to saline intrusion" Research objectives and research tasks 2.1 Research objectives Research on the status of livelihoods in aquaculture in the coastal provinces of the Red River Delta adapting to saline intrusion As a scientific and practical basis to propose overall solutions and priority solutions to develop sustainable livelihoods in aquaculture in coastal areas of the Red River Delta coastal provinces to adapt to saline intrusion 2.2 Research tasks To achieve the above goal, the following research tasks are carried out: (1) Review and clarify the theoretical basis for sustainable livelihoods in aquaculture adapted to saline intrusion (2) Analysis of the current situation and effects of saltwater intrusion on aquaculture livelihoods in the coastal areas of the Red River Delta coastal provinces (3) Investigate and analyze the intention to develop aquaculture adapting to mangroves of coastal residents in the coastal provinces of the Red River Delta (4) Analysis of strengths - weaknesses opportunities - threates (SWOT) for sustainable livelihood development in saltwater intrusion adaptive aquaculture in the coastal provinces of the Red River Delta (5) Proposing overall solutions and priority solutions to develop sustainable livelihoods in aquaculture in coastal areas in coastal provinces of the Red River Delta to adapt to saline intrusion Research scope Spatial scope: The research space of the project belongs to the administrative boundaries of coastal provinces/cities in the Red River Delta (specifically, the coastal area of Hai Phong city, Thai Binh province, Nam Dinh province, Ninh Binh province) Detailed survey and survey of population in some coastal districts of provinces/cities including: Tien Lang district (Hai Phong city), Thai Thuy district (Thai Binh province), Hai Hau district (Nam Dinh province), Kim Son district (Ninh Binh province) Time scope: (1) Analysis of socio-economic situation in the study area from 2010 to 2021 (2) Situation of saline intrusion, climate change, sea level rise is analyzed from the year 2010 to 2021 (3) A household survey on the intention to adapt to saltwater intrusion in aquaculture in the study area was carried out in 2018 (4) Overall solution orientation and preferred solution to 2030, vision to 2045 Scientific scope: The impact of saltwater intrusion on aquaculture livelihoods is analyzed in aspects: capital sources, strategies, and livelihood outcomes, with focus on the impact on livelihood capital Impacts and adaptation solutions to saline intrusion are analyzed based on a quantitative model to study the adaptation intentions of residents to saline intrusion in aquaculture Scientific and practical significance of the thesis Scientific significance: the thesis systematizes aquaculture livelihood sources in the waters of coastal provinces of the Red River Delta and clarifies the scientific basis for the role of aquaculture livelihood sources to adapt to saline intrusion Practical significance: the thesis describes the status of aquaculture livelihoods in the coastal provinces of the Red River Delta, thereby making some recommendations to support local authorities and aquaculture households in the use of livelihood capital sources, giving appropriate livelihood strategies to develop livelihoods adapted to saline intrusion New point of the thesis New point 1: Applying a combination of sustainable livelihood theory, protective motive theory and quantitative analysis model to analyze impacts and propose solutions to develop sustainable aquaculture livelihoods adapted to saline intrusion New point 2: Applying a multi-criteria analysis model to identify a system of priority solutions to choose the direction to adapt to saltwater intrusion and develop sustainable livelihoods Research methods and approaches 6.1 Approaches The thesis approaches sustainable livelihoods in aquaculture in the coastal provinces of the Red River Delta according to the concepts of sustainable livelihoods of Chambers and Conway The DFID Sustainable Livelihoods Analysis Framework is used to analyze the sustainable livelihoods of aquaculture households in the coastal provinces of the Red River Delta In addition, the thesis uses participatory rapid assessment (PRA) Aquaculture resident communities in the coastal areas of coastal provinces and cities in the Red River Delta are affected by saline intrusion It is difficult for households to adapt to saline intrusion to maintain and develop production Through understanding and analyzing people's perception of saltwater intrusion, local adaptation activities and current livelihood strategies of aquaculture households, a participatory rapid assessment method of the people to help the thesis understand the current situation and suggest ways to overcome the difficulties that aquaculture households face in the coastal provinces of the Red River Delta 6.2 Research methods The thesis uses primary data collection methods: survey, field survey, expert consultation; secondary data collection methods; methods of analyzing and synthesizing documents; Data analysis methods: SEM structure model, SWOT model, assessment method according to AHP hierarchical analysis process Thesis structure In addition to the introduction, conclusions and recommendations, appendices, the thesis has a structure of chapters: Chapter 1: Overview of the research situation Evaluation of research works related to the topic Review overview, find research gaps Chapter 2: Theoretical basis for sustainable livelihoods in aquaculture adapted to saline intrusion Determine the theoretical basis and theoretical system for the research of the thesis Develop a theoretical framework, an overall research design framework and steps to implement the thesis Chapter 3: Current status of aquaculture and saline intrusion in the coastal areas of the coastal provinces of the Red River Delta Research to clarify the current status of aquaculture livelihoods; salinization; state the strengths and weaknesses and analyze, assess the perception and orientation of livelihood development of aquaculture households in the coastal areas of the coastal provinces of the Red River Delta in the condition of saline intrusion Chapter 4: Proposing solutions to develop sustainable livelihoods in aquaculture in the coastal areas of the coastal provinces of the Red River Delta to adapt to saline intrusion Identify the bases for proposing solutions Systematically identify solutions, assess the importance of solutions according to AHP method and propose priority solutions and possible solutions CHAPTER OVERVIEW OF THE RESEARCH SITUATION 1.1 Overview of the research 1.1.1 Research abroad 1.1.1.1 Studies on sustainable livelihoods The concept of sustainable livelihoods is presented as an integrated concept that refers to the way in which economic, social, and environmental issues are linked in a unified and consistent manner with policy making (“Report on Brundtland: Our Future” by the World Commission on Environment and Development (WCED 1987) In 1992, the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development UNCED expanded this concept to correspond to its content of Agenda 21 (Agenda 21) and proposes sustainable livelihoods as a broader goal of poverty alleviation Chambers and Conway's study: "Sustainable Livelihoods in Rural: Practical Concepts for the 21st Century" published in 1992 introduced the concept, components, and properties of sustainable livelihoods Chambers and Conway's research is important in clarifying the definition of sustainable livelihoods and its components These concepts have become the basis for many other studies on sustainable livelihoods Research organizations such as IDS (Institute for Development Studies, University of Sussex, UK), DFID (United Kingdom's Department for International Development) all define sustainable livelihoods based on Chambers and Conway's definitions However, there are also some differences Chambers and Conway require sustainable livelihoods to contribute surplus benefits to other livelihoods, but IDS and DFID ignore this factor Regarding the composition of sustainable livelihoods, according to IDS, the proposed sustainable livelihoods framework consists of components: Livelihood resources (including types of capital: natural capital, economic capital, human capital, and social capital); livelihood strategy; integrity in the livelihood structure Meanwhile, DFID offers a sustainable livelihood framework with components: livelihood assets (including types of capital: physical capital, human capital, financial capital, natural capital, social capital); implementation structure and procedures, vulnerable contexts; livelihood results; livelihood strategy Research by Asian Development Bank (2017); Vishwa Bhar (2014, 2017), Emma (2016), Abdul (2014) clarifies the approach to sustainable livelihoods and emphasizes the importance of improving understanding of the livelihoods of the poor With a people-centered livelihood approach, the authors have considered many aspects of livelihoods, livelihood modes and limitations in livelihood development in the study areas For each field, there are some changes to suit the purpose of research Through studying the effects of natural resources on socio-economic development in countries and regions, the above studies emphasize the need to diversify forms of livelihood in a sustainable way suitable to the conditions and characteristics of each region Faced with the fact that the sustainable livelihoods of rural communities are under threat, Keshav's 2014 study "Communities and Livelihood Strategies in Developing Countries" has shown that factors including climate change Climate and natural disasters interact in a complex way, leaving rural people's livelihoods vulnerable Approaching DFID's livelihood framework, the author analyzed the resources and activities of rural communities in the use of livelihood resources Among them, social capital and local governance were identified as crucial in ensuring sustainable livelihoods as it ensures healthy cooperation between communities, promotes community and sense of purpose destination purpose, direction, and solidarity among members of the community The results of the study on the impact of climate change on coastal communities by Zsamboky M (2011) confirm: Climate change directly affects coastal livelihoods, leading to a decrease in personal income and affecting the local economy The increased saltwater intrusion rate reduces the quality and area of productive land Studies on the role of natural resources and coastal communities by Joe and Pauline (2016), Natalia (2014), Prateep (2017) are approached according to a sustainable livelihood framework to analyze changes in climate change.livelihoods of coastal communities, especially resources - dependent community The authors use a restoration approach, interviewing coastal aquaculture households and making several assessments of the need for livelihood transformation and diversification: diversity on livelihoods is necessary but also easily leads to disruption of production and resource balance Further innovations in approaches and tools will help to better understand livelihood challenges Some solutions proposed by the authors include focusing on the role of the fishing community in coastal livelihood activities; It is necessary to have a professional marine science education system for fishermen… to achieve the common goal of improving the efficiency of resource use and management 1.1.1.2 Research on saltwater intrusion adaptation aquaculture In the article by Kausha (2020), Nguyen Cao Don (2006), research by Hazar (2015) shows that saline intrusion is really a serious problem for coastal areas Studies also show the current status and causes of saline intrusion in coastal areas such as sea level rise, over-exploitation of groundwater resources, and land subsidence According to Elayaperumal (2010), Nesar (2016), saline intrusion has great impacts on agriculture, forestry, and fisheries, especially aquaculture The authors emphasize the role of aquaculture in providing food, ensuring food security, and generating income for coastal communities, and at the same time propose some solutions to develop aquaculture produce aquaculture contributes to response to saltwater intrusion such as: assessing the adaptability of important groups of aquaculture species; identify suitable farming and postharvest practices to maintain fish production and quality; supporting fishing gear; identify new land-use systems for aquaculture Some studies by Lydia (2018) and Pius (2018) suggested that saline intrusion has adversely affected the integrity of coastal natural resources and pointed out the dependence of coastal communities on natural resources nature nature nature for a living The study recommends integrating participatory approaches related to coastal resource management including capacity building for people to build resilience to the impacts of saline intrusion According to Kibria (2017), Castrignanò (2008), Aragues (2015) et al in the study “Assessment of the impacts of climate change on fisheries, aquaculture and food security in tropical seas” rising sea levels could destroy some coastal ecosystems, such as mangroves and mangrove swamps, which are considered crucial for maintaining natural resources natural fish, and at the same time provide seed for aquaculture production The authors modeled the spatial variability of soil salinity risk based on a multivariate, probabilistic geographic study The results are valuable for salinity management planning and are used by the authors to evaluate strategies for controlling soil salinity 1.1.2 Research in Vietnam 1.1.2.1 Research on sustainable livelihoods In Vietnam, sustainable livelihoods and livelihoods are topics that many organizations and scientists have studied and researched Sustainable livelihoods are studied from many angles such as economics, anthropology, ethnology, culturology and are considered by many scientists as a supporting tool in poverty reduction Research by Nguyen Song Tung (2021) is carried out based on approaches: human ecology, synthesis, interdisciplinary, socioeconomic geography, and sustainable development The studies of Steven (2015), Vo Van Tuan (2015) have shown that household livelihoods are influenced by livelihood resources and form livelihood responses According to Kai Wan Yuen (2021), the Red River Delta is faced with widespread saltwater intrusion Research by Adger (1997), Hoang Trong Hung (2019) shows that livelihoods of people in vulnerable areas in the context of climate change Without a timely adaptation strategy, economic losses and people's lives will be quite large 1.1.2.2 Nghiên cứu sinh kế ni trồng thủy sản thích ứng xâm nhập mặn In the face of rapid saltwater intrusion in the coastal areas of Vietnam, studies have focused on the evolution, causes and impacts of saltwater intrusion on existing forms of livelihoods of people coastal people and how they respond to saltwater intrusion to ensure sustainable livelihoods According to studies and articles by Dasgupta (2007), Pham Thi Tram, Nguyen Song Tung (2016), Tran Thi Phuong Lan (2020), Tran Ngoc Hai (2020), the phenomenon of temperature rise, and saltwater intrusion are due to substances the amount of water changes Climate is a serious challenge for aquaculture Research by Dinh Nhat Quang (2019), Nguyen Van Tho (2022) has assessed saltwater intrusion as an important issue for coastal water resource management Nguyen Minh Tu (2019) applies complex adaptive systems theory to analyze the adaptive dynamics and orientations for the increase in mangrove area in the coastal areas of the Red River Delta and the Mekong River Delta Research results show that the interplay of different motivations (policy, household profits, changing natural conditions) have created different changes and different adaptation orientations, change over time In general, research works have shown saline intrusion has been causing negative consequences to the lives and livelihoods of people in the coastal areas of Vietnam in general and the coastal provinces of the Red River Delta This situation will be exacerbated not only by climate change but also by inappropriate human exploitation of the environment Therefore, it is necessary to have appropriate solutions to ensure the livelihoods of the people 1.2 Overview evaluation Identifying gaps for the thesis's research: Most studies only consider saltwater intrusion as an impact of climate change Vulnerability assessment for livelihood groups affected by climate change Livelihoods in aquaculture before the impact of saltwater intrusion are rarely mentioned and analyzed specifically on the factors of livelihood activities, resources, livelihood outcomes and the relationship between these factors this element Therefore, the analysis and assessment of the intention to adapt to saltwater intrusion of aquaculture households is not specific and comprehensive In Vietnam, most of the research on sustainable livelihoods responding to saltwater intrusion in Vietnam has been carried out in the Mekong Delta; Fewer studies in the Red River Delta have been conducted In the studies on sustainable livelihoods in response to saltwater intrusion in the Red River Delta, the authors pay much attention to sustainable livelihoods in aquaculture, but not many analytical studies analyzed according to a solid theoretical framework of sustainable livelihoods Current studies are also mainly conducted in one province of the Red River Delta, not having a generalization for the whole region Therefore, sustainable livelihood development in aquaculture adapting to saltwater intrusion in the coastal provinces of the Red River Delta is still a research topic of scientific and practical significance CHAPTER THEORETICAL BASIS FOR SUSTAINABLE LIVELIHOODS IN AQUACULTURE ADAPTED TO SALINE INTRUSION 2.1 Theoretical basis for sustainable livelihoods in aquaculture adapted to saline intrusion 2.1.1 Theory of sustainable livelihoods Livelihood: According to Chambers and Conway (1992): “Livelihood, in the simplest sense, is a way of earning a living and it is expressed in its main DFID In the thesis, DFID's sustainable livelihood framework is used as a tool to analyze livelihood resources, plan the use of livelihood resources and achieve livelihood outcomes Saltwater intrusion is an event that affects aquaculture livelihoods on three fronts: livelihood assets, livelihood strategies and livelihood outcomes In the relationship between livelihood components, the change of livelihood assets plays a decisive role leading to changes in livelihood policies, processes and structures; Livelihood assets also determine the change of livelihood strategies and livelihood outcomes Changes in livelihood assets lead to changes in livelihood policies, processes and structures, and vice versa, changes in livelihood policies, processes and structures also change livelihood assets When livelihood assets are affected (negatively or positively), livelihood strategies and livelihood outcomes are altered 2.4 Solution proposal model Through the study of theoretical bases related to the topic, current status of aquaculture livelihoods, status and effects of saline intrusion on aquaculture livelihoods, SWOT analysis and results of interviews with aquaculture households in different areas different areas know exacly along the coast of the Red River Delta, the thesis proposes a solution: The solution must meet the criteria of sustainable livelihoods That is, ensuring economic sustainability, social sustainability and environmental sustainability; The solution must be practical, practical That is, suitable for provinces and households and adapt to saline intrusion 2.5 Khung thiết kế nghiên cứu tổng thể Step 1: Collect information and data on the research topic: collect primary and secondary data on the status of aquaculture (livelihood assets, livelihood strategies, livelihood outcomes, institutions), policies…) and saline intrusion in the coastal provinces of the Red River Delta Step 2: Analyze the impact of saltwater intrusion on aquaculture livelihoods in the coastal provinces of the Red River Delta (affecting livelihood assets, livelihood strategies, livelihood outcomes) Step 3: Analyze the adaptability of aquaculture supports to the effects of saltwater intrusion (perception, adaptation intention) Step 4: Proposing solutions to develop aquaculture livelihoods in coastal provinces of the Red River Delta towards sustainability, adapting to saline intrusion 11 CHAPTER CURRENT STATUS OF AQUACULTURE AND SALINE INTRUSION IN THE COASTAL PROVINCES OF THE RED RIVER DELTA 3.1 Natural, socio-economic conditions of the study area Natural features: The coastal provinces of the Red River Delta include provinces: Thai Binh, Nam Dinh, Ninh Binh, Hai Phong, and Quang Ninh (within the scope of the study, the thesis focuses on limited coastal districts of provinces and cities including: Hai Phong city, Thai Binh province, Nam Dinh province and Ninh Binh province) The study area has a coastline of about 160km Complex terrain includes bays, bays, mountains, coastal plains Climate and temperature are divided into two distinct seasons: dry season and rainy season Rainfall is unevenly distributed Forest resources are diverse in terms of ecosystems, species diversity, and rich natural forest landscapes Socio-economic: Stable economic growth rate The general trend of the economic structure of the coastal provinces of the Red River Delta is to gradually reduce the proportion of agriculture, forestry, and fishery, and gradually increase the proportion of industry, construction, and services However, the proportion of agriculture and fisheries still accounts for a high proportion Labor resources are abundant, labor quality is not high Stable social order and security Characteristics of the surveyed districts: The districts of Tien Lang, Hai Hau, Thai Thuy, and Kim Son have some common characteristics such as a high proportion of agricultural land but low agricultural production efficiency The proportion of rural population accounts for more than 90% of the total population, mainly engaged in agriculture, aquaculture, fishing and salt production Aquaculture has developed rapidly in recent years 3.2 Situation of saline intrusion in the coastal provinces of the Red River Delta 3.2.1 Situation of saline intrusion in the coastal areas of the coastal provinces of the Red River Delta The situation of saline intrusion in the coastal provinces of the Red River Delta is complicated In estuary areas, high tides intrude with salt, making river water salty, Red River, Thai Binh River salinity changes with tide The amount of river water also causes the salinity to change with the seasons: in the rainy season, the flow on large rivers limits saline intrusion, but in the dry season due to the small flow, salt water can penetrate quite deeply land The average salinity intrusion depth with salinity 1‰ and 4‰ is longest in the tributaries of Thai Binh River, then Ninh Co River, Red River and Day River In rivers, in the dry season, most of the coastal estuary water is saline Bach), 40 km (Thai Binh River) and 28 km (Van Uc River) The area of wetlands in the coastal provinces of the Red River Delta is about 299,762 hectares (accounting for 76% 12 of the natural area) Of which, the area of saline wetland is 125,389 hectares, including 22,487 hectares of coastal wetlands and 102,482 hectares of estuarine wetlands, distributed mainly in the estuaries of Nam Trieu, Cam, Lach Chay, Van Uc, Thai Binh, and Ba Lach, Lach Giang, with the main land use type is agriculture, forestry, and aquaculture 3.2.2 Saline intrusion in the context of sea level rise According to the climate change scenario, sea level rise for Vietnam (2016), when the sea level rises from 0.2 to 0.6m, 100 thousand will be flooded, in case of sea level rise of 1m, there will be 300 - 500 flooded affect flooded thousands of hectares are flooded, the dike system is seriously threatened because the water level on the rivers will rise from 0.5-1.0m and equal to the current dike level If the sea level rises by 1m, 16.8% of the Red River Delta area is at risk of being flooded, of which Thai Binh province (50.9%) and Nam Dinh province (58%) are two provinces at risk at risk high flood the best According to the climate change scenario, sea level rise for Vietnam (2020), when the sea level rises by 1m, about 38.22% of Thai Binh province and 43.67% of Nam Dinh province are at risk inundation, these are still the two provinces at risk of flooding and the largest inundated area in the study area The area of land at risk of flooding of the provinces and cities in the study area is more than 20% For the surveyed districts, the proportion of land at risk of flooding is even greater than 30% (in Kim Son district alone, there is a risk of flooding over 70% of the area) 3.2.3 Causes of saline intrusion in the coastal provinces of the Red River Delta (1) Natural causes: originate from climate change, drought, flood, sea level rise and geographical conditions of the coastal provinces of the Red River Delta (2) Caused by human production activities The unreasonable operation and exploitation of multi-purpose works and especially the lack of close coordination between water-using sectors leads to water disputes between water demand for power generation and agricultural production, navigation and ecological environment; in which not enough attention is paid to pickling and salting The planning and management of the production land area is not reasonable Natural causes and people's production activities are two independent causes leading to saltwater intrusion However, one cause has the potential to affect the other Sometimes, the overcoming and prevention of saline water intrusion in the short term has the potential to cause salinity intrusion in the future with a more serious degree 3.3 Status of aquaculture livelihoods in the coastal provinces of the Red River Delta 3.3.1 Sources of livelihood capital 13 Natural capital: The natural capital of aquaculture livelihoods in the coastal provinces of the Red River Delta depends heavily on the natural conditions of the area (1) Soil resources: the area of saline land accounts for about 41.5% Although saline soil is not effective in agricultural production, it is quite favorable conditions for developing saltwater and brackish water aquaculture The total aquaculture area of the coastal provinces of the Red River Delta is 53,383.94 ha, accounting for 13.4% of the province's agricultural land area For the surveyed districts, the ratio of aquaculture area to agricultural land is much higher than that of the whole province (2) Water resources: The Red - Thai Binh River system with its interlaced system of rivers and canals is filled with alluvium, providing water for production, making an important contribution to the formation of alluvial deposits into biosphere reserves such as Con Noi (Kim Son), Con Den (Thai Thuy), creating aquaculture areas, contributing to biodiversity conservation, is the potential for ecotourism exploitation (3) Forest resources: The area of mangroves plays a very important role in aquaculture activities in the coastal provinces of the Red River Delta Mangrove forests protect aquaculture households from the impacts of climate change such as sea level rise, saltwater intrusion, floods, and contribute to cleaning the environment and maintaining ecological balance Human capital: The provinces in the study area (Hai Phong, Nam Dinh, Thai Binh, Ninh Binh) have a total population of about 6,792,000 people, accounting for 29% of the total population of the Red River Delta The population structure is relatively young, the number of employees is stable, but the quality of labor is not high In general, the quality of human resources for aquaculture development in the coastal provinces of the Red River Delta is relatively favorable in terms of quantity but needs to be improved in quality Physical capital: The infrastructure of the coastal provinces of the Red River Delta has been newly invested, renovated and repaired relatively synchronously The State and provinces have focused on building coastal works such as building and expanding traffic routes, strengthening sea dikes The electricity supply, post and telecommunications systems meet the daily life and production needs of the people in the area relatively well Financial capital: capital sources mainly include capital sources from the State sector (State budget, loan capital, state enterprise capital); capital sources from the non-state sector (capital of enterprises; capital of residents) and capital from foreign direct investment Bank credit has made an important contribution to supporting production activities of people in the coastal provinces of the Red River Delta; creating conditions to exploit the potential and strengths of each province, organization and individual in rural areas to develop production and business, create jobs, increase incomes, and reduce 14 poverty sustainably However, the source of investment credit for aquaculture is still risky; People's ability to access credit is still difficult Social capital: Social organizations in the coastal provinces of the Red River Delta have done a good job in propagating civilized and cultural lifestyles, and training people in production techniques 3.3.2 Livelihood strategy In the face of complicated developments of saltwater intrusion affecting production activities, aquaculture farmers in the coastal provinces of the Red River Delta have applied several livelihood solutions such as: (1) Planning, converting farming areas Seafood; (2) Changing farming methods; (3) Change the object of cultivation; (4) Applying advanced farming technology to aquaculture; (5) Renovating and upgrading facilities and equipment for aquaculture 3.3.3 Livelihood outcomes Summary table of aquaculture livelihood results in the coastal provinces of the Red River Delta STT Result Content Aquaculture area has continuously increased from 2016 to present on all three types of Size and area of surface salt, fresh and brackish water aquaculture Combining many farming methods on the same area, reducing investment costs, increasing production efficiency Diversified farming species, combining Planting object cultured objects with mutual support, aiming at raising objects with high economic value Aquaculture output is constantly increasing rapidly, contributing to increasing people's Farming output income, contributing to GDP of the whole industry and local economic development Income from aquaculture of the coastal provinces of the Red River Delta is higher than income from other livelihood activities Income from such as agriculture, fishing, salt making; aquaculture create conditions for households to have more capital for reinvestment, production rotation, and labor attraction 3.4 Effects of saltwater intrusion on aquaculture livelihoods in the coastal provinces of the Red River Delta 15 3.4.1 Effects of saline intrusion on livelihood assets Summary table of effects of saltwater intrusion on aquaculture livelihoods in the coastal provinces of the Red River Delta STT Capital Level exposure Manifestation Direct/long term - Change of cultivated area - Change the water environment - Ecosystem changes, biodiversity - Reduce the area of mangroves Physical Direct/ indirect/ continuous - Easily damaged equipment - Degraded and damaged traffic, irrigation, and embankment works Humanity Direct/ indirect/ continuous - Change production environment - Change production thinking Nature Social Financial Indirect/ long term Indirect/ continuous - Reduce social capital - Possibility to reduce poverty - High rate of falling back into poverty - Connect the affected community - Financial resources are not concentrated but must be spread and divided among other capital sources - - Households must pay more for production 16 Damages - Cultivation area - Zoning - Cost of renovation - Cultivation theme - Cost of planting protective forests - Expenses for repairing and upgrading equipment and irrigation works - Cost of renovation and conversion of farming area - Direct economic damage - Cost of improving production capacity - Livelihood maintenance costs - Propaganda expenses - Increase the cost of raising public awareness - Training and support costs - Investment attraction productivity decreases, losing the attractiveness of the local aquaculture industry 3.4.2 Effects of saline intrusion on livelihood strategies The impact of saltwater intrusion on aquaculture livelihoods of households, whether direct or indirect, will be long-lasting and continuous Therefore, aquaculture households need to have a suitable livelihood strategy, adapting to saline intrusion to ensure stable production and income The coastal provinces of the Red River Delta have implemented several adaptation solutions to saline intrusion to support aquaculture households However, the current measures are more of a passive response than an adaptive response The main livelihood strategies that aqua culturists are currently implementing to adapt to saltwater intrusion are converting cultured varieties, applying new technical solutions, investing in equipment, improving the lakebed, career change With the above livelihood strategies, any option will cause damage to aquaculture households The most direct and obvious is the financial loss (capital already invested or about to be invested in production) 3.4.3 Effects of saline intrusion on livelihood outcomes Saline intrusion changes livelihood capital sources, leading to changes in livelihood strategies and livelihood outcomes of aquaculture people in the coastal provinces of the Red River Delta The cost and time required to implement new livelihood strategies reduces the financial accumulation of aquaculture households Expenses that can be used to improve the material and spiritual lives of households must be divided to use for activities to adapt to saline intrusion People will have more difficulty in accessing better health and education conditions For the coastal provinces of the Red River Delta, goals such as increasing social welfare, eradicating hunger, and reducing poverty, improving food security, attracting investment, etc are also affected 3.5 Strengths, weaknesses, threats and opportunities for aquaculture livelihoods in coastal provinces of the Red River Delta to adapt to saline intrusion SWOT Matrix for Aquaculture Livelihoods in the Red River Delta Coastal Provinces Strengths Weaknesses S1 Favorable natural conditions, suitable for aquaculture development S2 Infrastructure to meet production requirements S3 Young population structure, large proportion of workers in working age (>50% of the population) S4 Stable financial capital S5 Social security is stable, social 17 W1 Aquaculture area has not been effectively managed and exploited W2 The quality of the labor source is not high W3 The application of scientific and technological advances to production is still low W4 People's ability to access organizations operate effectively S6 People are aware of the risks of XNM S7 Adaptation measures to mangroves are being applied somewhat effectively Opportunities O1 Saltwater intrusion increases the area of saltwater and brackish water, which is favorable for aquaculture development O2 Investment proportion of non-state sector tends to increase Cell3 The state and locality have many policies to support livelihood development O4 Science and technology development O5 Get the attention of many social organizations financial capital is still difficult W5 The infrastructure system is not synchronized W6 Low foreign investment attractiveness W7 Production activities pollute the environment Thách thức Threats T1 Saltwater intrusion changes the aquaculture environment T2 Environmental pollution T3 Pets susceptible to disease T4 Difficulty in forecasting natural disasters T5 The cost of aquaculture operations increases T6 High cost of implementing adaptation activities T7 The capacity of workers has not yet met production requirements 3.6 Analyzing the adaptability to saltwater intrusion of aquaculture households in the coastal provinces of the Red River Delta by modeling structural equation SEM 3.6.1 Building a SEM model for the study area The table describes the factors affecting the intention to adapt STT Factors Factors description Perceptions of aquaculture households about Perceived risk of saline the risks that saline intrusion can pose to their intrusion (PE) production activities Beliefs of aquaculture households about Belief in saline saltwater intrusion in aquaculture and other intrusion (BN) production areas The adaptive assessment is theoretically Assessment of the measured by self-perception, adaptation degree of non3 effectiveness, and adaptation cost Perception adaptation to saline of difficulty in carrying out adaptation intrusion (NA) activities 18