Hạn chế rủi ro của các doanh nghiệp xuất khẩu hàng nông sản việt nam

5247 LV.ThS DHKTQD — ■" TRL'ONG DAI HOC KINH Tfi QUOC DAN *** TRAN THUY DIEP HQ' I T e THONG TIN THU h / I | PHONG LOAN Ay ã P LIEô'| HAN CHE RUI RO CUA CAC DOANH NGHIEP ■ ■ XUAT KHAU HANG NONG SAN VIET NAM Chuyen nganh: KINH TE DOI NGOAI ■I LUAN VAN THAC SY KINH TE • • THS Ngu'cfi h tiding dan khoa hoc: TS NGO THI TUYET MAI HA NOI, NAM 2011 Il ■ Mi LOI CAM DOAN Toi xin cam doan luan van la ket qua nghien cuu cua rieng toi, khong chep cua Noi dung luan van co tham khao va sur dung cac tai lieu, thong tin dupe dang tai tren cac tac pham, tap chi va cac trang web theo danh muc tai lieu cua luan van Tac gia luan van rwi A rw-5i r • A Tran Thuy Diep MUC LUC • • Ldl CAM DOAN MUC LUC DANH MUC BANG, BIEU DO TOM TAT LUAN VAN Ldl MO DAU CHUONG 1: LI LUAN CHUNG VE RUI RO CUA CAC DOANH NGHIEP XUAT KHAU HANG NONG SAN 1.1 Khai niem va phan loai rui ro 1.1.1 Khai niem rui ro 1.1.2 Phan loai rui ro 1.1.3 Cac yeu to lam gia tang nguy co rui ro 12 1.2 Dac diem cua rui ro hoat dong xuat khau hang nong san va tac dong cua no den doanh nghiep xuat khau hang nong san 14 1.2.1 Dac diem cua rui ro hoat dong xuat khau hang ndng san 14 1.2.2 Tac dong cua rui ro den doanh nghiep xuat khau ndng san 17 1.3 Han che rui ro cua cac doanh nghiep xuat khau hang ndng san 18 1.3.1 Vai tro cua han che rui ro cua cac doanh nghiep xuat khau hang ndng san 18 1.3.2 Cac bien phap ngan ngtra va han che rui ro hoat dong xuat khau hang ndng san 19 1.3.3 Kinh nghiem cua mot so nude tren the gidi ve han che rui ro 22 CHUONG 2: THUC TRANG RUI RO VA CAC BIEN PHAP HAN CHE RUI RO CUA CAC DOANH NGHIEP XUAT KHAU NONG SAN VIET NAM THdl GIAN QUA 28 2.1 Tong quan ve ket qua xuat khau hang ndng san Viet Nam thdi gian qua 28 2.1.1 Kim ngach xuat khau hang ndng san 28 2.1.2 Nhtrng mat hang ndng san xuat khau chinh 29 2.1.3 Thi trudng xuat khau hang ndng san 31 2.2 Thue trang rui ro va cac bien phap han che rui ro cua mot so doanh nghiep xuat khau hang ndng san Viet Nam 34 2.2.1 Rui ro bien dong cua gia ca 34 2.2.2 Rui ro toan quoc te .46 2.2.3 Rui ro ty gia hoi doai 49 2.2.4 Rui ro phap ly 52 2.2.5 Rui ro thien tai 55 2.3 Mot so ket luan danh gia muc rui ro va cac bien phap han che rui ro cua cac doanh nghiep xuat khau hang nong san Viet Nam 57 2.3.1 Danh gia muc cua rui ro 57 2.3.2 Danh gia cac bien phap han che rui ro 59 2.4 Nguyen nhan cua nhung ton tai thuc hien cac bien phap han che rui ro cua cac doanh nghiep xuat khau hang nong san Viet Nam 62 2.4.1 Co so tang cua doanh nghiep 62 2.4.2 Nguon von cua doanh nghiep 67 2.4.3 Doi ngu can bo cua doanh nghiep 68 2.4.4 Quy hoach san xuat nong san 70 2.4.5 Dau tu cho san xuat ndng nghiep 71 CHUDNG 3: DU* BAO VA CAC BIEN PHAP HAN CHE RUI RO CUA CAC DOANH NGHIEP XUAT KHAU NONG SAN VIET NAM TRONG THdl GIAN TO I 73 3.1 Dy bao tinh hinh hoat dong xuat khau nong san Viet Nam nhung nam toi va nhung rui ro co the xay 73 3.1.1 Dinh hudng phan ky phat trien xuat khau nong san 73 3.1.2 Dinh hudng va dir bao phat trien hoat dong san xuat nong san 74 3.1.3 Du bao nhung rui ro co the xay 75 3.2 Mot so bien phap chu yeu nham han che rui ro cua cac doanh nghiep xuat khau hang ndng san Viet Nam 77 3.2.1 Nghien cuu va du bao thi trubng 77 3.2.2 Nang cao nang luc san xuat cac san pham nong san che bien 78 3.2.3 Nang cao chat luong nguon nhan luc doanh nghiep 78 3.2.4 Nang cao nhan thuc ve phap luat thuong mai quoc te 80 3.2.5 Da dang hoa va chuyen huung xuat khau 81 3.2.6 Doi moi hoat dong xuc tien thuong mai 83 3.3 Mot so kien nghi vdi Nha nude nham han che rui ro cua cac doanh nghiep xuat khau ndng san Viet Nam 84 3.3.1 Dieu chinh quy hoach vung nguyen lieu 84 3.3.2 Tich cue su dung cac bien phap ho trq hop xanh cho cac doanh nghiep 85 3.3.3 Xay dung thuong hieu cho ndng san Viet Nam 85 3.3.4 Ho tro cac doanh nghiep hon nua cong tac du bao thi trudng 86 3.3.5 On dinh ve tinh hinh kinh te vi mo 88 KET LUAN 89 DANH MUC TAI LIEU THAM KHAO DANH MUC CAC Tit VIET TAT Nghia day du STT Chfr viet tat Tieng Anh Tidng Viet BHHH Cargo Insurance Bao hiem hang hoa BHNN Agriculture Insurance Bao hiem nong nghiep BH TDXK DN DNBH EU FAO FDA Bao hiem tin dung xuat khau Enterprise Doanh nghiep Insurance Company Doanh nghiep bao hiem Europe Union Lien minh Chau Au Food and Agriculture To chuc Luong nong lien hiep Organization quoc Food and Drug Administration X Cue thuc pham va dupe pham Hoa Ky Z Hazard Analysis and Critical Phan tich moi nguy va diem Control Points kiem soat toi han Letter of credit Thu tin dung Most Favoured Nation Nguyen tac toi hue quoc Bank Ngan hang HACCP 10 L/C 11 MFN 12 NH 13 NHNN State Bank Ngan hang nha nude 14 NHTM Comercial Bank Ngan hang thuong mai 15 OECD 16 7 Organization for Economic Co­ Td chuc hop tac va phat trien operation and Development kinh te TTQT International Payments Thanh toan quoc te 17 VFA Vietnam Food Association Hiep hoi luong thuc Viet Nam 18 VN Vietnam Viet Nam 19 WTO World Trade Organization To chuc thuong mai the gidi 20 XNK Export Import Xuat nhap khau 21 XK Export Xuat khau DANH MUC BANG, BIEU DO DANH MUC BANG Bang 2.1: Kim ngach xuat khau hang nong san (2001-2009) 29 Bang 2.2: 10 mat hang ndng san xuat khau chinh cua Viet Nam (2001-2009) 30 Bang 2.3: 10 thi truong nhap khau hang ndng san ldn nhat cua Viet Nam (2001- 2009) 31 Bang 2.4 Thiet hai chenh lech gia gao cua VINAFOOD 37 Bang 2.5 Thiet hai bien dong gia ca phe cua VINACAFE .42 Bang 2.6 Kim ngach xuat khau cua Minh Phu Co giai doan 2008 -2010 45 Bang 2.7 Muc tac dong cua rui ro den doanh nghiep 57 Bang 2.8 Hieu qua cua cac bien phap han che rui ro 60 DANH MUC BIEU DO Bieu 1.1: Cung hang nong san xuat khau va thu nhap 17 Bieu 2.1 Gia gao the gidi trung binh hang nam tir nam 2000 den thang 2010 35 Bieu do2.2 Khdi luong va kim ngach xuat khau gao cua Viet Nam 2000 - 2010 36 Bieu 2.3 Dien bien gia ca phe .40 Bieu 2.4 Kim ngach xuat khau ca phe cua VINACAFE 41 Bieu 2.5 Bieu kim ngach xuat khau nam 2010 cua Minh Phu Co 44 Bieu 2.6 Thi truong xuat khau cua VINAFOOD nam 2010 47 Bieu 2.7 : Didn bidn ty gia USD/VND 2008-2009 50 Bieu 3.1: Vung suy giam va hua hen xuat khau 82 TRUONG DAI HOC KINH TE QUOC DAN *** TRAN THUY DIEP HAN CHE RUI RO CUA CAC DOANH NGHIEP XUAT KHAU HANG NONG SAN VIET NAM TOMTATLUANVANTHACSYKINHTE ã ô HA NOT, NAM 2011 i Nen kinh te Viet Nam da va dang hoi nhap nhu vu bao, cac doanh nghiep Viet Nam mo rong thi truong the gidi, hoat dong xuat khau se bien dong r r r \ cang manh, tro mat xich toi quan trong day chuyen phat trien kinh te cua dat nudc dac biet la xuat khau mat hang nong san von la mat hang chu luc cua Viet Nam Hoat dong xuat khau nong san von la mat hang nhay cam thuong mai quoc te, tiem an nhieu rui ro kho du doan, luong trudc Rui ro xay keo theo nhieu thiet hai, anh huong tdi su ton tai va phat trien cua doanh nghiep va toan bo nen kinh te Do do, nghien cuu ve rui ro qua trinh thuc hien hoat dong xuat khau nong san va cac bien phap han che rui ro la viec rat can thiet va co y nghia to ldn doi vdi cac doanh nghiep va nha nudc Xuat phat tu nhung van de tren em da lua chon de tai ““Han che rui ro cua cac doanh nghiep xuat khau hang ndng san Viet Nam” CHU'O'NG 1: LI LUAN • CHUNG VE RUI RO CUA CAC DOANH NGHIEP • XUAT KHAU HANG NONG SAN 1.1 Khai niem va phan loai rui ro 1.1.1 Khhi niem rui ro Rui ro la su kien khong may man, het suc da dang, phuc tap luon gan lien vdi moi truong hoat dong cua nguoi Rui ro la nhung bien dong tiem an o nhung ket qua cua hoat dong xuat khau gan vdi mat hang nong san Nhung bien dong gay ton that, thiet hai cho doanh nghiep hoac lam mat di nhung co hoi kinh doanh cua doanh nghiep xuat khau hang nong san 1.1.2 Phhn loai iru ro Phan chia theo Rui ro tu tac dong cua moi truong r r Rui ro kinh te: Rui ro gia ca , Rui ro khung hoang kinh te, Rui ro ty gia, Rui ro toan qudc te Rui ro chinh tri, phap ly Rui ro thien tai ii 1.1.3 Cac yeu to lam gia tang nguy co’ rui ro Thai cua doanh nghiep vdi rui ro Sai lam lira chon chien luge kinh doanh, chinh sach va co che hoat dong cua doanh nghiep Sir yeu kern ve nang lire quan tri va trinh chuyen mon nghiep vu Thieu dao due kinh doanh Sir so suat, bat can 1.2 Dac diem cua rui ro hoat dong xuat khau hang ndng san va tac dong cua nd den doanh nghiep xuat khau hang ndng san r •> 1.2.1 Dac diem cua rui ro hoat dong xuat khau hang ndng san Rui ro luon la sir kien bat ngd, khong ludng trudc dugc Hoat dong xuat khau ton that thuong xay thuong xuyen hon vdi tan suat Ion hon Muc nghiem gay thiet hai ldn Tinh da dang, phuc tap nhieu hon Cung - cau san pham ndng san khong on dinh Rui ro gia ca san pham ndng san cd xu hudng giam so vdi hang cong nghe Trd ngai thu nhap tu xuat khau san pham ndng san bien dong 1.2.2 Tac dong cua rui ro den doanh nghiep xuat khau ndng san Giam hieu qua kinh doanh, giam thi phan va kirn ngach xuat khau, uy tin cua doanh nghiep tai nude nhap khau bi giam sut 1.3 Han che rui ro cua cac doanh nghiep xuat khau hang ndng san f f o 1.3.1 Vai trd cua han che rui ro cua cac doanh nghiep xuat khau hang ndng san Chuang trinh xay dung cac bien phap han che rui ro phu hgp, cac doanh nghiep thudng cd thai binh tinh hon trudc cac nguy co rui ro gay ton that, viec khac phuc hau qua nhanh chong hon 1.3.2 Cac bien phap ngdn ngira va han che rui ro hoat dong xuat khau hang ndng san Ne tranh rui ro - Chu dong ne tranh trudc rui ro xay 78 Cue Xuc tien thuang mai Bo Thuang mai, tham tan thuang mai Viet Nam tai cac nudc, Trung tam thdng tin thuang mai Bo Thuang mai Cac doanh nghiep can phai nghien cuu ung dung cac nghiep vu marketing de phat hien nhieu mat hang mdi co kha nang tieu thu tai thi trudng the gidi To chuc cac hoat dong dich vu trudc va sau ban hang de tri cung co uy tin cua hang hoa Viet Nam doi vdi ngudi tieu dung tren the gidi 3.2.2 Nang cao nang lu'c san xuat cac san pham nong san che bien , ' 7 Hien nay, hau het hang nong san xuat khau la nhung san pham tho -co gia tri gia tang thap nhat Cac doanh nghiep xuat khau nong san nen chuyen hudng sang xuat khau theo dieu kien FOB hoac CIF de co ca hoi tang doanh thu va loi nhuan tu cac hoat dong dich vu ngoai thuang nhu: van tai quoc te, kho van quoc te, bao hiem quoc te, toan quoc te, qua canh quoc te va tai xuat khau Trong tuang lai gan, cac doanh nghiep xuat khau can chu y hoan thien he thong che bien, phat trien cac xudng, nha may che bien de phu hop vdi chien luoc xuat khau nong san Trong dai han, nganh cong nghiep che bien co nhieu thay doi, ddi 'hoi su dau tu ldn ve cong nghe hien dai, ky thuat quan ly tien tien, san pham nong san che bien co du suc canh tranh vdi thi trudng the gidi Viec tien hanh xay dung he thong kho chua cung dang duoc tien hanh khan, nang luc du tru va bao quan nong san cua Viet Nam se duoc nang cao r x 3.2.3 Nang cao chat lu'o'ng nguon nhan luc doanh nghiep Viec nam vung va thuc hien nghiep vu, quy trinh nghiep vu toan quoc te co y nghia to ldn phdng tranh rui ro, lua dao thuang mai quoc te DN can nang cao su hieu biet ve phap luat va trinh ngoai ngu Vi tham gia tien trinh thuang mai tren pham vi quoc te khong chi co luat quoc gia ma cdn rat nhieu thiet che phap ly khac Neu DN khong nang trinh ngoai ngu, chac chan se gap kho khan giao ket hop dong va de bi cai bay Khong ngung chu phat trien nguon nhan luc cho xuat khau nong san, ung dung cac ky nang nghien cuu thi trudng, marketing, ky nang dam phan qudc te, nghiep vu ky thuat ngoai thuang, 79 nang cao trinh luat phap qudc te, trinh ngoai ngu, ung dung tin hoc Viec dao tao can theo hai hudng: trudc mat, ddi vdi nhung ngudi lao dong can thuan thuc ve ky nang va chuyen mon hoa sau; mat khac phai chu dac biet tdi dao tao, boi duong nhan tai co kha nang ung dung va tich hop khoa hoc cong nghe cua nhan loai cho phat trien lau dai Con ngudi la yeu td quan trong qua trinh san xuat de tao san pham co chat luong cao va dap ung tdt nhu cau thi hieu cua ngudi tieu dung Ngoai viec trang bi may moc thiet bi hien dai phai co nhung can bo ky thuat gioi va cong nhan lanh nghe Hien nay, nudc ta rat thieu can bo ky thuat va cong nhan ky thuat co tay nghe cao Do kha nang canh tranh qudc te cua hang hoa rat thap Boi vay de khac phuc tinh trang Viet Nam can to chuc nhieu chuong trinh dao tao chuyen sau cho cac can bo ky thuat va cong nhan ky thuat thuoc cac linh vuc de tao doi ngu cong nhan lanh nghe cac nganh che tao, san xuat che bien Dong thdi Viet Nam nen phdi hop vdi cac nudc de gui can bo ky thuat va cong nhan ky thuat tre, co trien vong dao tao o nudc ngoai Ngoai van de chu dao tao can bo ky thuat va cong nhan ky thuat, Viet Nam can phai quan tam dao tao de co doi ngu can bo thuong mai gioi thi mdi co the dua san pham co chat luong cao tdi duoc thi trudng EU Tang curing su tham gia hieu qua cua chuoi lien ket nha:- nha nudc - nha doanh nghiep - nha khoa hoc - nha nong Thdi gian qua, su phan hoi va lien ket nha yeu Khi cac mdi quan he chat che duoc thiet lap, nha doanh nghiep se dua can bo ky thuat xudng giup nong dan san xuat, cho ho vay tien de ung dung ky thuat san xuat Cac nha khoa hoc se cung cap nhung ky thuat mdi nhat cho doanh nghiep, cac hop tac xa va ngan hang se cung cap tin dung cho nong dan de ung dung ky thuat, phat trien san xuat Co nhu vay cac doanh nghiep xuat khau nong san Viet Nam mdi co the dung vung duoc canh tranh chung ta thuc hien cac cam ket hoi nhap kinh te qudc te 80 3.2.4 Nang cao nhdn (hire ve ph dp (i^clt thu'o’ng mai quoc (e Cac doanh nghiep chu dong tim hieu ve nhung quy dinh phap ly lien quan den xuat nhap khau tai cac thi truong ldn de dua cho minh nhung doi sach hop if Co ke hoach, phdng chong rui ro phap ly bang cac xay dung phap che doanh nghiep chuyen nghiep vdi nhung nhan vien du nang luc, trinh de ky ket hop dong giao thuong vdi nudc ngoai Tao thoi quen su dung tu van cua luat su, chuyen gia phap ly hoat dong thuong mai quoc te Kiem tra xac minh tu cach phap ly va nang luc tai chinh cua doi tac nudc ngoai trudc chinh thuc ky hop dong mua ban hang hoa quoc te hoac thiet lap cac quan he hop tac khac vdi doi tac nudc ngoai Reng linh vuc toan quoc te, doanh nghiep Viet Nam nen su dung dich vu toan quoc te cua cac ngan hang ldn nudc de thuc hien phuong thuc toan vdi nudc ngoai Doi vdi doanh nghiep xuat khau thi doanh nghiep nen thoa thuan tin dung thu ho so bo chung tu hang xuat duoc chiet khau Tren co so doanh nghiep Viet Nam lua chon mot phuong thuc toan r r •> \ x quoc te de bao ve quyen, loi ich cua minh Tuy nhien cung can co mot vai phuong thuc toan du phong truong hop khong thoa thuan duoc vdi doi tac phuong thuc toi uu co loi cho minh Chu dong nam bat thong tin ve phap luat, thi truong cua cac quoc gia khac, thu thap thong tin ve su thay doi cua thi truong, phap ly cua cac quoc gia Chinh nhung nguon thong tin la mot kenh quan de doanh nghiep nudc phong tranh, giam thieu duoc rui ro tham gia cac hoat dong thuong mai quoc te Muon tao nguon hang thich hop, cac doanh nghiep Viet Nam phai tang cuong dau tu va hoan thien quan ly can tang cuong ap dung cac he thong quan ly ISO 9000, ISO 14000 va HACCP Dieu giup cac doanh nghiep Viet Nam co the tao duoc nguon hang xuat khau on dinh va thich hop sang thi truong EU HACCP ap dung doi vdi cac doanh nghiep thuoc nganh cdng nghiep che bien thuc pham, ISO 14000 ap dung doi vdi cac doanh nghiep thuoc cac nganh cong nghiep 81 ma cd qua trinh san xuat gay nhiem moi trudng, va ISO 9000 ap dung ddi vdi cac doanh nghiep thuoc cac nganh cong nghiep khac 3.2.5 Da dang hod vd chuyen huong xuat khau Xay dung chien luge da dang hoa san pham va da phuong hoa thi trudng xuat khau cua cac doanh nghiep de phan tan rui ro, tranh tap trung xuat khau vdi khdi luong ldn vao mot nudc Nhin lai thi trudng xuat khau gao nam trd lai day, doanh nghiep nudc chu yeu xuat khau gao theo thi trudng tap trung vdi gia thap; nhung thi trudng cao cap nhu Nhat Ban, Dai Loan (Trung Qudc) , khdi luong xuat khau het sue khiem ton Day chinh la thach thuc ldn vi phan khuc thi trudng gao cap thap se khdng cd tiem nang dai han chung ta mot mat phai canh tranh vdi nhung doi thu mdi tham gia thi trudng nhu Myanmar, Bangladesh, Campuchia; mat khac, phan khuc gao pham cap cao se roi vao tay cac doanh nghiep nudc ngoai Va tuong lai xa hon, cac nudc tieu dung gao se tu can ddi nhu cau nudc bang viec xay dung chien luge tu cung tu cap de dam bao an ninh luong thuc Ddng gop cua ndng nghiep va xuat khau ndng san cho nen kinh te quan r r r •> la the, nhung neu nhin dai han mot tuong quan gitra cung/xuat khau ndng san va cau/nhap khau ndng san se thay nhieu van de can phai suy nghi Mot mo hinh don gian ve xuat khau cua Viet Nam tuong quan vdi nhu cau nhap khau cua the gidi hoac mot ban hang ldn theo cac true tung va hoanh Ddi vdi mot hang hoa xuat khau cua Viet Nam cd the d mot bon goc phan tu Nhung hang hoa nam d goc phan tu thu II dugc coi la trien vgng luc ca xuat khau cua Viet Nam va nhu cau nhap khau deu tang Va ngugc lai ddi vdi trudng hgp goc phan tu thu IV goc phan tu thu I, luc dd hang Viet Nam dang bi canh tranh, suy giam mac du nhu cau thi trudng van tang goc phan tu- thu III, hang Viet Nam canh tranh va tham nhap manh vao thi trudng bat chap suy giam chung cua thi trudng Hon ntra, tac dong cua cuoc khung hoang kinh te toan cau nen thi trudng xuat khau ndng san Viet Nam xuat hien nhieu vung suy giam 82 VONCmFAHEN I g JE ** o □ w II i > ■ X ? i £ IV