NLN* 132-11/2016'3 V VAI TRO CUA NHA MAY NHIET DIEN THAN TRONG SAN XUAT DIEN NANG TREN THE G l ^ VA QT VIET NAM - NHUNG VAN DE VE CONG NGHE VA MOI TRUONG [Bia CAO TRiNM BAT TAI H | NGHf i t CONG NGHE NH1$T fil^H THAN VA MOI TRUING 00 BO CONG THUDNG TO CKUt TAI KA NOI NGAT GSni/ZOtG) PGS TS Truwig Duy Nghia - Chu tich Hgi KHKT Nhi$t Vi^t Nam Bang Toe phat trien di^n cua mgt so quoc gia NHA MAY NHIET DIEN THAN TRONG SAN XUAT DIEN NANG C O A T H ^ GIOI VA Cf VIET NAM 1.1 Dgc dilm phat triln dipn a mdi qudc gia Qu6c gia Dipn ndng - nguin dpng Igo d l phat toiln cua mot quic gia diu trai qua giai dogn: - Giai dogn khdng phat friln hodc phat triln cham, tic dp tdng trudng dipn nang hdng ndm ehi vao khoang 1-2 % 06 Id thdi ky eua nhu-ng nude chgm phdt biln, san lupng di$n nang tinh theo dau ngudi rit thap, dit nudc thilu didn trim trpng, nmjc edn rit nhilu vung dan cu khdng cd dipn Vipt Nam trudcdlimdi{1986)cungd'trongtinh trgng ndy - Giai dogn phdt triln nhanh, toe dp tdng tordng di^n ndng thudng tren 10 %, hp so vupt tnfdc hay h$ s l ddn hii > Cdc nudc mdi nii, eae nudc Ddng Nam A (tn> Singapore) dang d giai dogn ndy Trong giai dogn ndy nhu d u dipn ndng rat Idn SI/ tdng tardng kinh t l ciia dit nude se bj anh hudng niu khdng dupc ddp img du di$n ndng 2010 938 326 145 630 621 537 381 298 Tang tnpdmg 15 nam, % 1980-1995 1995-2010 49,7 18,8 46,6 21,6 71.5 16,7 47.7 14,3 45,2 16,5 90,3 9,8 17,3 14,4 29,5 25,7 207 922 497 247 332,6 162,7 168,6 109.3 156.0 116.0 94,6 1.00 136.4 222.2 506.4 584.9 San li/Q^g di^n, ty kWh 1980 1995 Cac nimc G7 463 6-682 427 3-558 r.K Nhdt Ban 572 981 373 551 Canada 367 553 OLTC 257 48g Ph4p 284 333 Anh 237 Y 183 B Cac ntioc m6fn6i Tmng Qu6c 972 AnD$ 351 Hdn Quoc 186 Ddi Loan 118 C Cac noric DongNamA Indonena 66,0 IThdiLan 36,0 MalavMa 15,6 VidtNam 14,6 A - Giai dogn bdo hda nhu d u ^pn toe dp tdng tnfdng dipn ndng chi vdo khoang 1-2 %/ndm Cdc nudc mdi nii ede nudc Ddng Nam A dang d giai dogn 2, cd tic d$ tdng trudng di^n ndng rat tdn, dd d c ntfdc mdi ndi dang o nua culi giai dogn edn cdc nudc Ddng Nam A dang d nira ddu giai dogn Vidt Nam dang d nira diu cua giai dogn 2, tic Tir bang cd nhung nh$n xdt sau: dd tdng tnrdng dipn ndng hdng ndm la s l , nhu Cdc nudc phdt triln cao nhu cdc nudc G7 da a d u cTtpn ndng rat Idn St/ thilu hgt didn ndng se anh giai dogn bdo hda v l nhu d u dien tie d$ tdng hudng rdt ldn den toe dp phdt trien kinh t l cua dit trudng hdng ndm rit bd, tdng tordng 15 ndm nudc Tuy nhien tir sau ndm 2025 toe dp tdng diln hinh nhu Phdp chi Id 9.8 %/15 nam hay 0,45 trudng ^en ndng se giam din (d mi>c sl) %/ndm, Nhdt (16,7 %/15 ndm hay 0.96 %/ndm) Tuy vgy hidn san lugng didn ndng blnh qudn H0 s l ddn hii eua nhung quic gta thudng < alu ngudi hdng ndm cua Vipt Nam mdi chf bdng mpt nOa binh qudn cija thi gidi (bang 2) Tgi bang gidi thi$u san lupng vd tic d | tdng tnrdngfft^nndng cua mOt s l quic gia ( d c nude G7 d c nude mdi ndi cdc nudc Ddng Nam A) Bang San Itrgrtg di^n nang cua the gioi (2014) T h i gioi Trung Qii6c My An D$ Dt>c Hdn Qu6c T6ng sdn li/^ng ty kWh 23 536 810 207 208 514 518 160 Ddn s6 tndu ngi/d'i 432 382 324 327 81 51 94.44 Binh qudn ddu ngir&i, l(Wh/ngudi,ndm 160 4.111 13 346 910 7.500 10 157 695 Vidt Nam Nhdn xdt bang 2: Tmng QuIe: san xult nhilu didn nhit thi gidi (1/4 ting san lupng didn ciia t h i gidi), dd vupt My nhimg blnh qudn diu ngudi nho hon 1/3 eiia My Binh qudn diu ngudi cua Vipt Nam: bdng 1/2 binh quan toan thi gidi 4"NIN-132"11/2D16 1.2 Vai trd cua nhiet dien than san xuat dien nang cua thd gioi va cua mpt sd qudc gia Bang Ty 1$ cac nguon san xuat di$n nang ctia tfie gioi va cOa mgt so quoc gia (2011), % Thh gidn 100.0 41,2 21,9 Nqti6n di^n T6nq san li/griq ND than NO ktii NOdSu Thuy difin Difin hat nhSn Difin t^j Eao Trunq Quoc 99,8 79,0 My 99.6 43,3 24,2 AnDQ 100,0 67.9 10.3 Australia 100,0 68,6 19.7 0,9 7.4 1,2 12.4 1,6 6,6 3,5 3.9 1,8 02 15,6 11.7 14.8 19,0 4.2 2,2 4,8 3,2 5,0 Due Indonexia 99,9 44,4 20,3 23,2 98.5 45,1 13,9 1,1 2,9 H i n Qu6c 100.0 43.2 22,3 3,2 0,9 6,8 5.2 17,9 17,6 29,8 0.6 Nhan xet Nhipt dipn than la ngudn san xult (Sen nang chii yiu ciia thd gidi, chilm 41,2 % tong san lupng ffi^n, gap ldn nguon phdt dipn thu hai (nhidt dipn khO, gap gdn ldn thiiy tJipn, gdn ldn ^pn hgt nhdn, 10 Idn (Ji§n tai tao Nhung nudc cd ty lp nhipt dipn than Idn nhu Trung Qudc, Australia, An Dd Han Qudc, trtr lupng than nudc rat it, ngudn than chii yiu tir nhgp khdu, tjpn hgt nhdn cao nhimg nhipt dipn than vdn chilm ty lp cao vd Id chu yiu 1.3 Vai trd ciJa nhiet dipn than san xult dien nang d* Viet Nam Bang Ty 1$ cac nguon phat di$n & Vi$t Nam Nam T i n g san ii/gng tyliWh Tdng tn/ong Binh q u d n d ^ u n g i / i ldng ndm, l(Wh/ngi/£n ndm % Thuy dldn Ty i cd nhu d u phii dinh d l thj phg tai thi mdi diu tu xdy dgng them nhi^t dipn Theo Quy hogch Ot^n Vll dieu ehinh, se cd thdm Trung ^ m dl^n d Kien Giang Niu ngudn tir vung bidn Tdy Nam ed du cho ca Tnjng tdm Cd Mau, Mdn, Kidn Giang thi vide dau tu them d Kidn Giang Id hpp ly Niu nguin d p khdng du thi vipc diu tu Tmng tdm di^n Kien Giang chua chdc da hpp ly 1.4.4 Nhi^t dien dau Gid dipn ti> nhidl dipn diu ddt gip 3-4 ldn nhipt dt|n than nen phuang hudng chung Id se logi tra nhidt dipn dau, chi cdn nhung trgm diezel dio nhung dao xa ma ludi dien quoc gia chua tdi 1.4.5 Di^n tai tao Cdc nguon ndng lupng tai tgo chu yiu Id gid, mdt trdi, biomas dta nhipt Nguin S\a nhiet d Vidt Nam bd, nhi^t dd khdng eao cdc nude khai thdc dia nhipt chii yiu Id nhOng nudc thudc vdnh dai nui lira, ddng dit nhu Nhgt Ddi Loan, Philippines Dien Mgt trdi va Gid Uu dilm: + Ndng lupng sgch, khdng ed phat thai chit ddc hai; + Khdng tidu thg nguon ndng lupng so d p d ddy la nhien lipu ndn khdng ton chi phi nhien l i ^ ; 6-NLN-132'11/2016 + Suit vdn diu tu edng giam (chi cdn cao han mdt chiit so vdi nhipt dipn than); + Chi phi nhdn cdng vdn hanh thlp, trinh d | tu dpng hda cao Nhuac dllm: Bangs, Quic gia TmnqQuic + s l gid TTOC «1-500 gd/hdm nen san lupng Braan den san xuat = 1/4 - 1/5 NDT lam cho gpa Canada thdr^ dipn cao hon NDT, phai bii ^ diea Nqa + Vipt Nam Id nudc nhipt doi nhung AnDi khdng phai Id nudc nhidu ndng, nhidu gid, gid Nhat chi tap tnjng d mdt vdi noi nen mirc dp ddng My gdp v l dien gid, dipn mdt trdi tdng nhu Tdv Ban Nha d u dipn ndng khdng idn DLTC Dien tip biomass: Ngudn biomass d Vipt Nam gom rom ra, ba mia, f l u , thdn Id cdc edy ndng nghipp nhu ngd, sdn ldt mgt eua, vd bdo rac sinh hogt, phdn diuor^ dd trau vd sdn ldt Id nguon biomass quan tnpng de Idm nhidn li^u Ddc dilm: phdn tan va nhd le; Nguyen tie chung: biomass (trir rac, phdn diuong) niu dupc dung Idm nguyen li$u eho san xult cdng nghipp thi cd hl$u qua han Idm nhien lipu Vi dy: Bd mia Id nguydn lidu d l san xuat cdc logi giiy v^ sinh, giiy dn; Ram rg Id nguydn lidu d l san xuat cdc logi glly carton, thirc dn dpi gia sue; Mgt cua vd bdo: vdn dp; Thdn Id cdy: thuc dn chdn nudi Niu thy^ hipn dupc nhu v^y thi biomass dung d l phdt didn se khdng ddng k l tdng cdn bdng Chung cua h0 thing di$n tinngk^venanglmpngti t90Cuam^s6qii6cgia Bonvi lykWti Tdng Tliijy 0|a an Biomass Mdt nhidt Ndm didn ndng dldn tdit90 42,0 43,0 2014 1300.0 1066,1 160.0 35,3 411,2 5.0 2012 451.5 2012 2012 2012 2012 2015 2014 2014 397.3 167.9 160.0 122.4 549.5 114,1 168,4 376.7 11.3 164.4 124 28.3 74.7 44.8 251,2 190.9 43,0 25.4 52.0 57.4 9.0 05 3.0 5.0 2.0 33.2 7.0 64.2 38.6 6.4 117 49.8 36.1 0.5 2,6 16.8 0.1 Chl nhO'ng nudc gidu tdi nguydn dit nhu Nga, hodc khdng c6 didu kipn xult khau dit vd nhO'ng nudc dang thidu didn trim tn?ng nhu Philippines, Vipt Nam thdi gian khoang 2000 - 2005 mdi diu tu mgnh nhi|t dl^n vd mdi chgy nhi$t dipn d phg tai nen San lupng didn ndng tir dipn tdi tgo chilm ty trpng bd, gid thdnh san xult di^n cdn cao, tgl cac nudc phdt triln, ty Id ndy eung thlp, Cf Vidt Nam chua the coi phuang hudng phdt triln 6\^n tai tgo Id mOt hudng uu tidn d l cd ty I| ddng gdp Idn san xult dipn ndng Xu hudng chung: cac niroc deu dung NDTde dap Cmg nhu cau di^n nang phat trien kinh te sau da khai thac tri^t de cic nguon thOy di^n Day la thoi ky phat trien m^nh kinh t4, nhu cau di^n ning rat cao Khi dat nudc da tr& n§n giau CO moi nghi den phit trien cic d^ng ning Iwgng khac nhir di^n tii t^o vi moi bit diu h^n chi dan phat triin nhi^t di$n than Thuy nang; 6\s