Quan hệ giữa tăng trưởng kinh tế và tiêu thụ điện năng thực tế tại việt nam

66}'i TAP CHi KHOA HOC TRl/ONG DAI HOC MOTP.HCM - SO (38) 2014 QUAN HE GltTA TANG TRITPNG KINH T£ VA TIEU THU WEN NANG THlfC TIEN TAI VIET NAM Ngiynhaiibai:05/05;20I4 Ngaynhan lai: 02/07/2014 Ngay duyet dang: 18/08/2014 Nguyin Quyet' >'" Qu6cKhanh' Bdi viet ndy nghien ciru dnh huang cita cdc nhdn to: tieu thu dien (EC), ddu tu true tiep nudc ngodi (FDI) vd von ddu tu (K) tdi GDP binh qudn, thuc tien tgi Viet Nam vd dugc phdn lich ddnh gid tren cd hai gdc ngdn hgn vd diii hgn Ca sd ly thuyet dug vao mgi sd nghien cini trudc vd md hinh tdng trudng Cobb-Douglas dugc ieng dung ldm ca sa hinh thdnh md hinh kinh te lugng phuc vu cho phdn tich Phucmg phdp phdn tich chu yiu dugc dua tren kiem dinh Granger, kiem dinh ddng lien ket Johansen vd md hinh VECM (Vector Error Correction model) Ket qud nghien cuu cho thdy ngdn han tieu thu dien tdc dong tich cue ldi GDP Tuy nhien, Irong ddi hgn nhdn td ndy dnh huang tieu cue len GDP Tir khda; Cobb-Douglas, kiem dinh Granger, kiem dinh ddng lien kit Johansen vd mo hinh VECM ABSTRACT The objective of this paper is to examine the relationship between the electricity consumption, foreign direct investment, capital and economic growth in VietNam which is analyzed covering both long-term and short-term The previous researches are canvassed thoroughly using for theoretical foundations and the economictric model is built by the CobbDouglas Granger causality test, Johansen cointegration test and Vector Error Correction model are employed in this study The results of study pinpoint thai electricity consumption is a positive factor for economic growth in short- term whereas it is a negative one in long-term Keywords: Cobb-Douglas, Ganger causality test, Johansen cointegration lesl, VECM [ Tniimg Cao dSng Tai Chinh Hai Quan Email: nEuyenquyetkl6(3)|!niaij com " Truong Dgi hoc Hiing Vuong KINH i f Gidi thieu Phat trien ngudn nang lugng dien la nhu cau tat yeu de dap ung yeu eau phat trien kinh te - xa hdi va bao dam an ninh quoc phdng cua mgt qude gia tiong diiu kien hdi nhap kinh te quoc le dap ung nhu cau dien eho sinh boat cua nban dan va dam bao an ninh nang lugng eua quoc gia Tuy nhien, tinh trang thieu hyt ngudn nang lugng (dien) tiong cac quoc gia dang phat triin la mdt thue ti dang xay va trd mot trd ngai kha ldn qua trinh san xudt Tieu thy nSng lugng la mgt yiu Id ddu vao quan trgng anb budng true tiip din tang trudng kinh te Mot quoc gia cd ngudn nang lugng vdi gia ca hgp ly se lam lang eanh tranh gia tri san pham tren thi trudng qude ti, la nhan Id lam gia tang xuat khau, anb hudng tich cyc ldi tang trudng GDP Nang lugng ddng vai trd quan trgng tiong nen kinh te tren ea hai phuong dien eau va eung Xet tren phuong dien eau, nang lugng la mgt tiong nhimg san pham ma ngudi lieu dung quyit dinh mua di ldi da hda Igi ich cua bg Vi phuang dien eung, nang lugng la mdt yeu td quan trgng san xuat, cung vdi vdn, Iao ddng va nguyen vat lieu cung dugc xem la phan quan trpng qua tiinh tang trudng cua mdt qude gia Trong nhieu thap nien qua, rat nhieu nghien cuu nd lyc chung minh mdi quan he giira tieu thy nang lugng va tang trudng kinh le Nhin chung, cac nghien cuu chi rdng cd mdi quan be kha chat che giiJa hai nhan to Tuy nhien ve chieu hudng lac dgng tbi khdng cd kel luan thdng nhat, tiiy thugc vao kbdng gian tbdi gian ngbien cuu Vi le dd, ket qua eiia nhung nghien cuu trudc day khdng the la can cu virng chac de Iam co sd ggi y chinh sach hgp ly va ap dyng chung cho mpi qude gia Do do, van de dang va tiep lyc thu hut su quan tam cua nhirng nha kinh t^, cung nhu cac nha nghien cun vdi ky vgng sB tra ldi thda dang cau hdi: lieu tieu thy nang lugng cd kieh thich lang Irudng? hay tang trudng se lam gia tangtieuthy nang lugng Thirc traag tieu thu dien tai Viet Nam Trong su nghiep cdng nghiep hda, bien dai hda dat nude, vdi muc lieu phan dau ldi nam 2020 ca ban trd mpt nudc cong nghiep Vdi muc dich dd, tang tiudng GDP la mdt nhung chi tieu then chot duge chinh phu dac biet quan tam, bang viec k^t hgp toi uu cac yeu td dau vao nhu von, nhan luc va cdng nghe vdi ky vgng dat dugc GDP bang vdi nhung quoc gia da phat trien tien the gidi Hinh GDP, Dien tieu thu, FDI \ a Von dau tir binh quan giai doan 1993-2013 OO 02 04 oe OS IO ^K\ Ngudn: Tdc gid long hgp lit World Bank, ve tir Eview-s 7.0 T2 TAP CHi KHOA HOC TRUONG OAI HOC MO TP.HCM - S6 (38) 2014 Thuc te cho thay nhung nam gan day, GDP binh quan ciia Viet Nam dat miic kha in tuong dilu da cai thien dang kl phuc lgi xa hpi, mtrc song nguoi dan tang ien ro ret, nhung cung vi vay da lam cho nhu clu dien tang manh theo timg nam doi luc cau vucrt xa cung Dilu da gay khong it kho khan cho cac nganh san xuat kinh doanh co phu thuoc vao he thong luoi dien qude gia Ca ciu tieu thu dien tai Viet Nam nhu sau: nganh cong nghiep va kiln tnic chilm khoang 51%, sinh hoat 40%, thuang nghiep va dich vu 5%, nong nghiep, thiiy san 1% va lai la 3% Mat khac, song song voi tang truang kinh te la su chuyen doi tir nin kiiih tl lay nong nghiep la tam sang nin kinh tl cong nghiep, dich vu Vol chinh sach thu hut dau tu hpp 1) cua chinh phu, hang nSm, Viet Nam thu hut kha Ion luang von FDI, ciing vol U nhu cau xay dung khu cong nghiep va nhi may cua cong ty nuoc ngoai tang manh Do do, nhu cau dien cong nghidp cang gia tang Hem niia, miic song cua nguoi dan dupc cai thien Iam thiic dSy manh me nhu cau sir dung dien ca nhan Thoi dilm hien tai o Viet Nam luang tieu thu dien nim cua nguoi mtng binh la 800 KW din nam 2020 sd co thi se len toi 2000 KW Theo dit lieu th6ng ke dupc, binh quan moi nim lupng dien san xuat tang khoang 13% nhungnhu ciu dien cua Viet Nam dupc du doan m6i nam tflng khoang 16-17%, vi thi nganh cong nghifp san xuJt dien se nhanh chong rai vao tinh trjng cung khong dap img can Ngoai ra, su lao hoa cua thilt bj truyin dien thiet bj phat dien va co so ting xuong cap din den tinh tr^ng ti le that thoat dien nang cao (khoang 8%/nSm) la mpt uong nhiing vSn de kho khan ma nganh dien Viet Nam dang phai ddi mat Thuc va; dien la mpt nhiing nguon nang lupng quan Upng va cin thiet cho su phat trien cua qu6c gia, cho ddi sdng cua n|udi Muc dich ciia bai vilt la xem xet mdi quan he gila ngudn nang lupng va tang uudng GDP diu tu FDI va v6n diu tu, bang phucnig phap thdng ke suy diln va md hinh kinh te lupng Qua dd gpi y mdt sd chinh sach phil hpp nham quan ly, sir dimg hieu qua ngudn nang lupng Bd cue bai bao dupc trinh bay theo phan Phan 1: Gidi thieu, phin 2: Thuc trans tieu thu di?n tai Viet Nam, phan 3: Tdng quan ly thuyet, phin 4: Phuang phap phan tich va ket qua thuc nghiem va phin 5: Kit lu^n va gpi y chi'nh sach TSng quan l,v thuyet 3.L Tang trudrng kinb te vd tiSu thu dim nang Khdng the phu nhan rang didn dupc xem nhu la cudc each mang lich sir phat triln nhan loai, la nhan td da ddng gop khdng nho su phat triSn cua cac nghanh nhu: giao thdng, truyin thdng, san xuit Nghien cuu thuc nghiem vl moi quan he giiia tieu thu dien nang va tang trudng kinh tl dupc kha nhilu tic gia quan tam thuc hien nhtmg kit qua khdng thdng nhat (xem Bang I) Ngudi tien phong nghien ciru chu dl la Kraft va Kiaft (1978) Mac dii nhilu y kiln tin ting di^n la mpt yeu to diu vao ciia qua trinh san xuit, hiy nhien nhieu nghien ciiu thuc nghiem van that bai Uong viec tim ehirng cir ung hd quan diem Apergis va Tang (2013) cho ring sp anh hudng ciia tieu thu dien nang va tang trudng phu thuoc vao timg giai doan phat triln ciia quoc gia Dac biet, tac gia cdn kit luan anh hudng cua tieu thu dien nang toi tang trudng kinh tl chi co y nghta ddi vai cac qude gia da va dang phat triln cdn ddi vdi qude gia kem phat trien thi quan he khdng xay Tit cac kit qua nghien cini cho thiy, quan he nhan qua giua tieu thu dien nang va tang Uudng dupc chia bdn nhdm gia thuyet sau: Thie nhdt, dien la nhan td quan hpng thiic _ day tang trudng kinh tl Ung hp gia thuyet bao gdm cac nghien ciru Chandran va cpng su (2009) Narayan va Singh (2007), Abosedra va cpng su (2009), Bowden va Payne (2009) J'"' '""• tang Uudng anh hudng tpi tieu m dien nang, nghia la nlu cd chinh sach cit giam viec sir dung dien nang thi viec lam knong anh hudng den qua ttinh tang trudng KINHTf kinh te Ung hd gia thuyel la nhung ngbien euu tieu biiu ciia Kraft va Kraft (1978), Abosedar va Bagheslani (1989), Use and Montforl (2007) va Huang (2008) Thu ba, ed sy tac ddng Ian giira tieu thy dien nang va tang trudng kinh ti NhQng n^udi iing hd gia thuyet thudng thi banh chien luge kep la lang trudng kinh ti phai di ddi vdi ban che I5ng phi ngudn nang lugng va phat trien cdng nghe la la each tdt nhat de cai lien vi6e su dung ngudn nang lugng hi$u qua Murray va Nan (1994), Ebohon (1996), Yang (2000), Jumbe (2004) Tang (2008, 2009), Lean va Smyth (2010) la nhijng nghien cuu tieu bieu cho gia thuyit 69 cuu cung cho rSng FDI lam gia tang hieu qua su dung ngudn dien bang each lai co cau san xuat, chuyen giao cdng nghe va cac hinh thue khae Tuy nhien, nd phu tbudc rat Idn vao kha nang hap tbu vdn cua nudc chu nha Sun va edng su (2011) nghien cuu mdi quan be giira dau tu FDI va bieu qua su dyng dien, su dyng sd lieu cua 74 qude gia (sd lieu eheo) tu 1985 din 2008 Kit qua cho thiy dhx tu FDI lam lang hieu qua su dyng ngudn dien Sun va epng sy (2012) ngbien cuu mdi Hen be eiia GDP, tieu thy dien va FDI tai Thugng Hai vdi sd lieu ehudi thdi gian tir 1985 tdi 2010 Bang phuang phap mo hinb Var (Vector AutoRegression), va can cu ket qua phan tieh eua phan ung xung, cac tac gia kel luEtn rang, Thic tu, gia thuyit trung lap cho ring tiong ngan ban gia tang dau tu FDI se lam khdng cd tuong quan giiia lieu thy dien va giam lugng dien tieu thu Hp giai thich ket tang trudng GDP NhiJng nghien ciru theo gia luan dua tien hai Iy ca ban: hieu ung thuyit la Yu va Jin (1992), Akara va Long cong nghe va eo sd tang dugc nang cap (1980), Soylas va epng sy (2007) Ciing chu de nay, Hubler va Keller 3.2 Dau lu true tiip nudc ngodi vd tiiu (2009) nghien cuu tac ddng cua dau tu FDI len Ihu dipn ndng cudng tieu thy dien, tien hanh tren mau Theo Alfaro va cgng sy (2010) khang gdm 60 qude gia tu 1975 tdi 2004 Kit qua djnb ring cac nha Iam chinh sach ludn tin khing dinh rang neu thu hut dau tu FDI lam tudng dSu tu FDI la nhan to quan tigng lam giam cudng dp lieu thu dien gia tang nSng suat cua nudc ehu nha Ngbien 3,3 Mpt so nghiin cuu liin quan Bang Tom tat mot so nghien cihi Tac gia Quoc gia Phu-ong phap nghien cu-u Kraft (1978) USA Granger causality, Var Akarca, Long (1980) USA Cointegration, Granger causality EC^Y Cheng, Lai (1997) Taiwan Hsiao's Granger EC