Thanh nien Trung tam KTTV Qudc Gia cdng tdc phdng chdng vd gidm nhe thien tai N G H I E N CUTJ D A N H G I A P H A T T H A I N H I E M DO GIAO THONG H A N I Pham Van Sy, Dang Manh Doan, Nguyen Haug Nga, Nguyen Huu Thanh V i e n K h o a hoc K h i t u o n g T h u y V a n v a M o i t r u o n g Nghien cuu danh gid phdn bd phdt thai d nhiem khdng theo khdng gian va thdi gian cho phd Ha Ndi dua tren phucmg phdp tiep can cua Cue Bdo ve Mdi trudng My (USEPA) Mac du phdn ldn cdc he sd lien quan tdi phdt thdi hoat ddng giao thdng dua tren cdc nghien cuu cua nude ngoai, nhirng qua nghien cuu dd cho thdy ty le tuong quan (mdt each ddi) cua phdt thai d nhiem khdng giira cdc qudn/huyen kit tuong cua thdnh phd Ha Ndi Nghien cuu ciing cho thdy viec du bdo phdt thdi d nhiem khdng ndi rieng va du bdo chdt luong khdng ndi chung cho phd Ha Ndi vdi dd phdn ddi Hon x 1km hoac nhd hon hoan todn cd the thuc hien duoc Tuy nhien dd chinh xdc phu thudc vao rdt nhieu co so dir lieu giao thdng va cdc he sd phdt thdi Trong tuong lai, cdc nghien cuu cdn duoc ddu tu song song theo hai hudng: xdy dung co sd du lieu vd hoan thien quy trinh du bdo khdng phdn ddi cao Md dau H a N o i , trung tam k i n h te, van hoa va chinh t r i cua ca nude, dang t h o i ky doi m d i , cong nghiep hoa, hien dai hoa T r o n g nhung nam qua, H a N o i da co nhung budc tien dang k l tren m o i mat d d i song k i n h te chinh t r i - van hoa - xa h o i N h u n g dong t h d i v d i sir phat t r i l n la sue ep ve m o i trudng, su gia tang nhiem va cac b i l u hien v l suy thoai m o i trudng da v a dang duoc canh bao, co nhiem k h o n g k h i Cac n g u l n n h i i m khong k h i chu y l u d H a N o i la hoat dong cua cac k h u cong nghiep, xay dung, cac lang nghe tieu thu cong nghiep, n h i i m xuyen bien g i d i va dac biet la hoat dong giao thong van tai n h i i m k h o n g k h i t d k h i thai cua cac loai xe co g i d i la n g u l n gay n h i i m moi t r u d n g k h o n g k h i l d n nhdt v a nguy hiem nhat Phuong tien co g i d i phat thai mot l u o n g l d n cac k h i oxitcabon ( C O ) , hydrocabon ( H C ) , b u i hat m i n ( P M ) , oxit nito ( N O ) , oxit l u u huynh (SO) va chi (Pb) M i loai k h i cung v d i san pham t h d cdp ozon se gay tac hai nghiem den sue khoe n g u d i va m o i trudng Theo udc t i n h cua T o chuc Y t l t h i g i d i t h i hang nam co khoang 800.000 n g u d i c h i t sdm v i phai tiep*xuc n h i l u v d i nhiem khong k h i d k h u vuc t h i [ ] Hpi thao khoa hoc Thanh nien lan thu II 224 Thanh nien Truns tam KTTV Qudc Gia cdng tdc phong chdng vd gidm nhe thien tai Phircmg phap Tren thuc te, qua trinh phat thai cua cac phucmg tien giao thong rat phuc tap, bdi qua trinh phu thudc vao cac didu kidn thoi tiet, cac tham sd phat thai cua m d i loai xe (loai ddng co, nhien lieu, tinh trang cua xe va loai duong ma phuong tien d i chuydn v.v) Nghien cuu khdng cd tham vong danh gia chinh xac anh hudng cua tat ca cac yeu td tren dieu kidn thuc cua Ha N d i ma chi xem xet mot sd cua td hop mdt sd cac yeu td tren tren co sd phuong phap luan cua Cue Bao vd M d i trudng M y (USEPA) If&c tinh VMT: la don v i the hidn muc dich su dung phuong tien giao thdng tren co sd hoac co sd nam va ket hop ca sd luong va dd dai di chuyen cua phuong tidn giao thdng V M T la tich so cua tdng luong xe cd di chuydn qua mdt diem cd dinh sudt mdt khoang thoi gian duoc an dinh, v d i dd dai d i chuyen V M T udc tinh cho vung nghidn cuu duoc su dung cdng thuc sau: M N P V M T = ^(AADTfL) + (AADTjL,) b (AADT'L,) 1=1 ;=1 i=l + a c (1) dd M , N va P la sd doan cua loai dudng a, b va c; L la dd dai m d i doan; A A D T la luong phuong tien trung binh nam kidm ke trdn m d i doan dudng, duoc tinh theo cdng thuc: A A D T j_ = i84z z ; v d i i la thang nam ( i = 1, = ^ ^ i j (2) 12); j la mdt tuan (j = 1, 7); M A D W la luong phuong tien trung binh tuan cua thang D d i v d i cac doan dudng ma cd mdt tram dem giao thdng trung binh A A D T duoc tinh bang each su dung cac he sd mua va tuan duoc xac dinh t u cac tram ddm giao thdng lien tuc t d i cac tram dem trung binh Cdng thud tinh cac he so nhu sau: J MADWij MADWij 84 £/^ =1 J v } dd Fy i a he so mua hoac cua tuan cho t h u j mdt r u i n va thang thu j nam; i Ik thang nam ( i = 1,2, ,12); j la mdt r u i n Cdng thuc dudi day minh hoa cho viec tinh toan A A D T cho mdt doan dudng dem trung binh dd cd cac gia t r i giao thdng hai lien tiep duoc thu thap A A D T = / (F,j x T j j + F i j + x T j J + ) (4) d day F j j la he sd mua va r u i n ; T y la luong phuong tien thu duoc b d i tram ddm trung binh T u cdng thuc tren ta thay, m d i luong giao thdng luong giao thdng hai lien tiep duoc nhan v d i mdt he sd Gia t r i trung binh cua hai gia t r i cua A A D T se la gia tri A A D T cua doan dudng [ ] Qua trinh phat thai ciia xe n h u sau [5] : Hdi thao khoa hoc Thanh nien ldn thu II 225 Thanh nien Trung tam KTTV Qudc Gia cong tdc phbns chong n n e thien tai - Phat thai qua trinh chuyen ddng: tat ca cac chat k h i t r u b u i m o n 16p va phanh - Phat thai k h i dong co bat dau chuyen dong: CO, N O , T O G , B E N Z E N E , x M T B E , B U T A D I E N E , F O R M , A C E T A L D va A C R O L E I N - Phat thai qua trinh boc h o i k h i tat may, b o m nhien lieu: T O G , BENZENE, M T B E - B u i m o n phanh: B R A K E va B R A K E P M C - B u i m d n lop: TIRE25 va T I R E P M C Cac chat thai t d cac phuong tien giao thong duoc coi la loai nguon thap va \ r r f phuc tap, bao gom 200 hop chat cac loai, cac chat k h i chu yeu la C O , CO2, SO2, ( N O ) , bui, K h a nang pha tron cua cac chat k h i sau k h i thai t u dong co la rat x yeu, va dudi dieu kien m o i trudng xung quanh chung se b i bien doi thong qua cac phan ung quang hoa D u d i day la v i du ve mot so phuong trinh cho phan dug quang hoa cua cac chat k h i thai sau k h i thoat t u dong co xe: N0 O • + NO NO + O • N0 CO + OH • H0 S0 + OH • SULF + H S0 • SULF CH4 + O H • FORM + TOL + • 0.44HO + 0.08 X + CRES + T OH 2 X0 2 2 Tinh trang cua xe va phuong phap chuyen doi phat thai theo thoi gian [ ] : Phuong trinh tinh toan ty le phat thai theo tinh trang cua m l i loai xe: gia t h i l t tinh toan ty le phat thai cho nam 2005: B do: B 200 200 =w e(2005,0) + w i e ( 0 , l ) + +w (2005-n,n) (5) n la ty le phat thai cho nam 2005; e(i,a) la ty le phat thai trung binh cho m o i loai phuong tien cua tuoi a, nam mo phong i ; w la s i phat thai trung binh cua cac loai phuong tien nam - S M O K E dua cac he s i va cong thuc c h u y l n d i i phat thai nam v l phat thai theo thang, va gid + Chuyen doi phat thai nam v l phat thai theo thang: Emision M o n t h = Emission do: Weight F a c t o r Annual * (Weight F a c t o r 12 = £ WeightFactor Month Month T o t a ] / Weight F a c t o r Month T o t a i ) (6) (7) Mmlh{i) vdi Weight Factor th la he so phat thai theo thang (12 thang nam) Mon + Chuyen d i i phat thai theo thang v l phat thai trung binh nam: Emission Day = Ave Hdi thao khoa hoc Thanh nien ldn thir II Emision nth / ( D a y s Mo year /Monthsyear) (8) 226 Thanh nien Trung tam KTTV Qudc Gia cong tdc phdng chdng va gidm nhe thien + C h u y l n d i i phat thai trung binh nam ve phat thai theo tuan Emission Day*(Weight Factor / Weight Factor Ave Emission Day D a y To tai) = Day (9) (Number veDay/Number do: Weight Factor tai ^WeightFactor , y=i A Days w k)] = Day To DoyU) ee v a i Weight Factor Day la he so phat thai theo (7 tuan) + C h u y l n doi phat thai ve phat thai theo gia Emissionsnr EmissionsDay * (Weigth Factor^ / Weight Factor r Total) (10) 24 do: Weight Factor ur Total ^ ghtFactor , v a i Weigth Factornr la he k=\ = HoU = Wei Ho Hmr{k) so phat thai theo g i d k (24 g i d ngay) Hien trang giao thdng dudng bo Ha N o i co quan n o i va huyen ngoai Cac quan noi Thanh Xuan, Tay H o , Cau Giay, Hoan K i e m , Hai B a Trung, D o n g Da, B a Dinh, L o n g Bien va Hoang M a i la nhung quan m d i dugc lap, tieu bieu cho toe do t h i hoa cua Tong dien tich t u nhien cua Ha N o i la 920.97 k m (theo so lieu r fj nam 2000) dien tich dat noi la 84.3 k m (9.15%) va ngoai la 836.67km (90.85%) 2 3.1 Mat dp dudng giao thdng Co sd tang cho giao thdng dd thi Ha N d i van ydu, quy md nhd va sd luong han che, khdng du cho nhu cau su dung Tdng chieu dai dudng giao thdng cua Ha N d i la 1.420km, dd ndi cd 268 p h i va dudng nhd v d i tdng chidu dai la 200km, tuong ung v d i 4.7km/km [2] V d i cac phuang phap cap phat khdng gian, nghien^ cuu cho thay mat dd dudng ldn nhat la 38.942km/km tai mdt sd phudng cua Quan Hoan K i e m va Hai Ba Trung, mat dd duong nhd n h i t la 0.64km/km tai cac huyen ngoai Sdc Son, Ddng A n h (hinh 1) Con sd la qua nhd so v d i tieu chuan cua cac nude tren the gidi va k h u vuc D d rdng cua dudng phd ndi dao ddng t u 5m d i n 40m, trung binh la 16.2m (tinh ca via he) hoac 10.2m (khdng tinh via he) Ngoai ra, ddt chat ngudi ddng va Igi ich kinh doanh nen thudng xuyen xay hien tuong ldn chiem dien tich via he va ldng dudng, v i t h i cac tuyen dudng da hep lai cang hep han N h i l u tuydn dudng giao thdng da x u l n g cap nang, ldp nhua Hdi thao khoa hoc Thanh nien ldn thu II 227 Thanh nien Trung tdm KTTV Qudc Gia cdng tdc phong chdng vd gidm nhe thien tai_ duong b i trdc d i , gay can t r d l d n cho n g u d i tham gia giao thong cung n h u tac dong xau t d i m o i trudng 3.2 Lieu luang giao thdng Trong nhung nam g i n day sd luong phuong tien giao thong van tai tang r i t nhanh, cac chung loai da dang va phong phu N g o a i van c h u y l n hanh khachj hang hoa va nhu c i u d i l a i cua n g u o i dan pham v i H a N o i co n h i l u phuong tien qua canh theo ca hudng Tay - D o n g va B i c - N a m cua dan c u t u cac tinh khac vao H a N o i [ ] Theo s i lieu cua cac sd giao thong t h i d H a n o i nam 1985 co khoang 40000 xe may cac loai, 3500 to cac loai, nam 1990 co 170000 xe may va 21500 to, nam 1996 co g i n 600000 xe may va g i n 47300 to [6], va t u nam 1996 t d i t i c phat t r i l n giao thong la khoang: - 13% d i i v d i xe may, va - 8% doi v d i to [6] Hinh Mat dudng giao thdng tinh Hinh Luu luong giao thdng cua cac loai xe tren 1km tai phd Ha Ndi tai mot s i tuyln p h i Ha Ndi (xe may x 10) H i n h cho thay l u u luong giao thdng tai mdt sd tuyen phd chinh ndi H a N d i JICA tien hanh thu thap thang nam 2005 Sd l u o n g xe may va d td loai dudi chd ndi chiem ty Id kha cao so v d i cac loai phuong tien khac Theo tinh toan quy ddi, n l u lay dung tich binh quan cua m d i chide xe gan may la 0,1 lit, va xe d td la 2,0 lit, t h i tai thdi diem sd xe xe d td duoc quy ddi t u xe gan may la khoang 800.000 chide N e u chon dung tich tich xilanh binh quan cua m d i xe xe d td la 2,5 l i t , thi sd luong xe xe d td duoc quy ddi t u xe gan may la khoang 600.000 chide D u tinh theo phuong an nao t h i sd l u o n g d td quy d o i t u xe g i n may cung nhieu hon sd xe d td hidn huu r i t n h i l u Hinh cho thay hau h i t l u u luong giao thdng cua cac loai phuong tidn deu dat hai l i n cue dai khoang thoi gian t u 6h t d i 19h Tuy nhien thdi d i l m dat cue Hdi thao khoa hoc Thanh nien ldn thir II Thanh nien Truns tam KTTV Qudc Gia irons cdng tdc phong chdng vd gidm nhe thien tai dai va ty le chenh lech giua cue dai va cue tieu co khac giua cac loai phuong tien: - L u u luong xe may dat cue dai vao khoang t u 7h - 8h va tir 17 - 19h, d nhung g i o gan v d i hoat dong cong sd va ty le chenh lech khoang 2- lan giua l u u luong cue dai va cue tieu; L u u luong xe to dudi cho co ty le chenh lech xap x i lan giua l u u luong cue dai va cue tieu; - L u u luang xe to tai true (xe.tai nho) dat cue dai, vao khoang t u lOh va 14h L u o n g V M T cua xe may va to d u d i cho tai cac quan n o i ldn hon rat nhieu so v d i cac huyen ngoai v d i chenh lech cue dai len den khoang 10 lan (Hinh 5) Hinh Bien trinh theo thdi gian cua luu luong xe tai Giang Vo (ben trai) va Tdn Due Thang (ben phai), Ha Ndi (d td < chd x 10) Hinh Luong V M T cua cac loai phuong tien tai cac quan, huyen ngoai nam 2002 cua phd Ha Ndi Hpi thao khoa hoc Thanh nien ldn thir II 229 Thanh nien Trung tam KTTV Qudc Gia cong tdc phone chdn R v a s j a m n n e thien tai H i e n t r a n g p h a t t h a i Toe clo phat trien giao thong a H a N o i tang manh v o i nhieu chung loai xe da dang va phong phu He thong co so tang giao thong duoc d i u t u manh thoi gian g i n day, nhung v i n chua the theo k i p duoc toe phat t r i l n ciia giao thong Dieu t h i hien ro d su c l t i c dudng lien tuc xay v a ngoai gio cao d i l m , gay anh hudng r i t l d n t d i c h i t luang m o i trudng K l thua k i t qua nghien cuu m d i day cua V i e n Khoa hoc K h i tuang Thuy van va M o i trudng v l viec k i l m ke phat thai nhiem cho vung K i n h te Trong diem Bac Bo, nghien cuu da t i l n hanh kiem ke luong phat M O B I L E 6.2 Cac thong t i n v l dudng ( c h i l u dai, loai dudng) duoc so hoa sau duoc c i p phat theo cac l u d i co k i c h thudc k m x k m ( H i n h 6) So lieu v l d i i u kien thdi t i l t ma anh hudng t d i qua trinh phat thai duoc chi tiet hoa va cung cap t u cac chuang d i n h d u bao t h a i t i l t Cung v d i so lieu V M T va dieu kien thdi t i l t , cac thong t i n ve loai nhien lieu, cac he so cua cac qua trinh co lien quan cho phep tinh duoc phan bo cua cac chat nhiem hoat dong giao thong theo khong gian va thdi gian Hinh Ban d l ludi tinh (2kmx2km), cac loai dudng va cac don v j hanh chinh d Ha Ndi - CO la loai sinh xang chua chay hoan toan Lugng CO dat gia tri cao tai cac quan ndi (trung binh khoang 120kg/h) va cac t h i xa, thi t r i n (trung binh khoang 52kg/h) la nhung noi cd mat dd dudng cao va l u u lugng phuong tien qua lai ldn Bien trinh C O b i i n doi manh v d i hai gia t r i cue dai luc 7-8h Hdi thao khoa hoc Thanh nien ldn thir II 230 Thanh nien Truns tam KTTV Qudc Gia irons cdng tdc vhbng chSng vd gidm nhe thien tai (khoang 118kg/h) va luc 15h-17h (khoang 140kg/h) (hinh 7) Dieu hoan toan phu hop v o i bien trinh l u u luong xe (hinh 3) Hinh Phan bo phat thai CO theo khong gian va thdi gian (tai diem cue dai) 1/10/2006 tai Ha Noi K h i N O la nhung hop chat nito va oxy dudi dieu kien nhiet cao x x i lanh phat sinh cac phan dug hoa hoc ma L u o n g N O dat gia t r i cao tai x cac quan noi (trung binh khoang 8kg/h) va cac t h i xa, thi tran (trung binh khoang 3.1kg/h) la nhung n o i co mat dudng cao va l u u luong phuong tien qua lai ldn Bien trinh N O bien doi manh v d i hai gia t r i cue dai luc 7h-8h x (khoang 8kg/h) va luc 16h-17h (khoang 5.3kg/h) (hinh 8) A A kgJli Hinh Phan bo phat thai NO theo khong gian va thdi gian (tai diem cue dai) 1/10/2006 tai Ha Ndi B u i duoc sinh an mdn phanh va banh xe ma sat v d i mat dudng k h i phuong tien giam tdc de tranh ngudi qua lai hoac qua chd ngoat va cac t m h hudng khan c i p khac ma phai phanh xe B u i cung duoc sinh su k h u i y trdn t u ldng Hdi thao khoa hoc Thanh nien ldn thir II 231 Thanh nien Trung tam KTTV Quoc Gia cons tdc phone chdng gidm nhe thien tai duong nhdt la d cac nga tir va cac tuydn dudng bi trdc phu ldp nhua Luong PMCa dat gia t r i cao t a i cac quan n o i (trung b i n h khoang 0.2kg/h) v a cac t h i xa, t h i trdn (trung b i n h khoang 0.08kg/h) la n h u n g n o i cd mat dudng cao v a l u u l u o n g phuong tien qua l a i l d n B i e n trinh P M C a b i d n ddi manh v d i hai gia t r i cue dai luc 7h-8h (khoang 0.2kg/h) v a luc 16h-17h (khoang 0.15kg/h) (hinh 9) Hinh Phan bd phat thai PMCa (PMCa=PMi - P M ) theo khdng gian va thdi gian (tai diem cue dai) 1/10/2006 tai Ha N d i K e t l u a n v a k i e n n g h j M a c du phdn l d n cac he sd lien quan t d i phat thai hoat dong giao thong dua tren cac nghien c u u cua nude ngoai, nghien c u u da cho thdy t y le tuong quan (mot each t u o n g ddi) cua phat thai n h i d m khong k h i g i u a cac quan/huyen cua H a N o i Phat thai giao thong tai H a N o i dat gia t r i cao tai cac quan, t h i tran, t h i xa, la nhung n o i co l u u l u o n g giao thdng l d n Bidn t r i n h phat thai cua cac chdt C O , N O , P M C a , kha p h u hop v d i bidn x trinh l u u l u o n g cua xe may (gan v d i hoat dong cdng sd) Nghien' cuu ciing cho thay viec d u bao phat thai n h i e m k h o n g k h i noi r i e n g va d u bao chdt l u o n g khong k h i n o i chung cho p h o H a N o i v d i phan dai l k m x 1km hoac nho hon hoan toan cd the thuc hien duoc T u y nhien chinh xac phu thudc vao rat nhieu co sd d u lieu giao thong va cac he so phat thai Trong tuong lai, cac nghien cuu can duoc dau t u song song theo hai h u d n g : xay dung co sd d d lieu va xay dung quy trinh dir bao khong k h i phan dai cao H i e n nhiem bui van duoc x e m la yeu to cd anh h u d n g l d n nhat t d i sue khoe cong ddng N h u da neu tren, phat thai b u i p h u thuoc vao hai ydu td chinh: chdt l u o n g dudng v a l u u luong giao thong T u ddu nam 2005, n g u d i dan H a N o i da co thd duoc h u d n g ' l o i ich cua chuong trinh g i a m thidu d nhidm bui v d i quy dinh b i t Hpi thao khoa hoc Thanh nien ldn thir II 232 Thanh niin Truns tam KTTV Qudc Gia irons cdng tdc phdng chdng vd gidm nhe thien tai budc dung nip day voi cac xe van tai vat lieu xay dung UBND Ha Noi nen tang cuong sd luong xe hut bui, rua duong cho sd GTCC Ngoai ra, phat trien giao thong cong cong va han che su dung cac phuong tien ca nhan la bien phap can tiep tuc thuc day nham han che phat thai nhiem V e v i n de nang cao nhan thuc cong dong, ph6 Ha N o i nen xem xet viec dua cac ban t i n dir bao c h i t luong khong k h i cho cac khu vuc dan cu trong co mo ta tac hai cua tung muc nhiem Tai lieu tham khao Dang Duong Binh (2006) D u bao nhiem khong d Ha Noi, cac giai phap quan ly va ky thuat de cai thien moi trudng khdng Hdi thao "Nha bao vdi van de d nhiem khdng Ha N d i " Hoang Xuan Co (2005) Nghien cuu hien trang d nhiem bui d phd Ha Ndi va de xuat cac giai phap khic phuc Bao cao tdng ket de tai cip phd Duong Hdng Son (2006) Nghien cuu du bao thu nghiem thdi han ngan chat luong khdng vung ddng bing B i c Bd Bao cao tdng ket de tai cap Bd Ning Wang, Hualiang (Harry) Teng (2004) " V M T Estimation Associated with TTS data and Maintenace of loop Detectors" Assessment and standards division office of transportation ans Air quality U.S Environment Agency 'User's Guide to MOBILE6.2 MOBILE resourceEmission Factor model' 6.www.nea.gov.vn/Sukien_NoibaiyChatluong_KK7Chuyende/giaothongHN.htm 'Van de nhiem khdng tai mdt sd diem ach t i c mdi trudng' Hdi thao khoa hoc Thanh nien tan thir II 233 ... r d l d n cho n g u d i tham gia giao thong cung n h u tac dong xau t d i m o i trudng 3.2 Lieu luang giao thdng Trong nhung nam g i n day sd luong phuong tien giao thong van tai tang r i t nhanh,... nam 1996 t d i t i c phat t r i l n giao thong la khoang: - 13% d i i v d i xe may, va - 8% doi v d i to [6] Hinh Mat dudng giao thdng tinh Hinh Luu luong giao thdng cua cac loai xe tren 1km... cua thang D d i v d i cac doan dudng ma cd mdt tram dem giao thdng trung binh A A D T duoc tinh bang each su dung cac he sd mua va tuan duoc xac dinh t u cac tram ddm giao thdng lien tuc t d i