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Hoi nghi Khoa hgc ky'''' niem 35 ndm Vien Khoa hgc vd Cong nghe Viet Nam Hd Ngi 102010 DANH GIA DO NGUY H I £ M DONG DAT VA SONG THAN VUNG VEN BIEN VA HAI DAO VIET NAM VA DE XUAT CAC GIAI PHAP ITNG PHO V[.]
Hoi nghi Khoa hgc ky' niem 35 ndm Vien Khoa hgc vd Cong nghe Viet Nam - Hd Ngi 102010 DANH GIA DO NGUY H I £ M DONG DAT VA SONG THAN VUNG VEN BIEN VA HAI DAO VIET NAM VA DE XUAT CAC GIAI PHAP ITNG PHO VA PHONG TRANH Bui Cong Que*" Nguyen Dinh Xuyen"*, Nguyen Hong Phuo-ng*", Tran Thi My Thanh*", Pham Van Thuc*^', Nguyen Van Luo-ng'^*, Tran Tuan Dung*^*, Phan Trong Trjnh*^* (1) Vien Vat ly dia cau; (2) Vien Dia chdt va Dia vat ly bien; (3) Vien Dia chdt Tom tat: Trin ca sa nghiin ciru tdng hgp cdc ddc diim dia chdn kiin tgo, cdc he dirt gay hogt ddng, dia ddng lire hien dgi vd tnrang irng sudt ca ban trin vimg thim luc dia Viet Nam vd Bien Ddng, xdc dinh cdc ddc trung vd thdng sd cdu true vd ddng lire ciia cdc vimg ngudn Idm ca sa ddnh gid nguy hiem ddng ddt vd sdng thdn, tinh vd xdy dung cdc bdn dd vimg ngudn ddng ddt sdng thdn trin Biin Ddng, bdn dd nguy hiim ddng ddt, bdn dd nguy hiem sdng thdn cho vung ven biin vd cdc hdi ddo Viet Nam Cdc bdn dd viing ngudn vd nguy hiem ddng ddt, sdng thdn trin vimg biin vd ven biin Id nhirng kit qud dinh lugng chi tiit vd cd ca sa ddu tien vi mirc nguy hiem ciia dgng tai biin ddng ddt, sdng thdn a Viet Nam, Id ca sa di xdy dung cdc di xudt ca bdn nhdm irng phd vd phdng trdnh hihi hieu nguy ca ddng ddt vd song thdn Nhirng gidi phdp ca bdn bao gdm phdn vimg chi tiet nguy hiim ddng ddt, sdng thdn, ddnh gid nil ro, xdy dung hi thdng bdo tin ddng ddt, cdnh bdo sdng thdn, quy hogch xdy dung cdng trinh chdng ddng ddt, sdng thdn trin dudng ba biin, thiet ki xdy dung cdc cdng trinh phdng chdng, hgn che dnh huang cua ddng ddt sdng thdn a viing ba biin vd cdc ddo cd nguy hiim cao ciing vai cdc gidi phdp khdc phuc sau thiin tai xdy Mddau Viing ven bien va hai dao Viet Nam vdi dai bd bien dai han 3200km va tren 2600 hai dao, nai tap trung tdi tren 20 trieu dan, da va dang la dia ban phat trien kinh te, xa hdi, qude phdng va an ninh vd ciing quan trgng, dac biet la su nghiep cdng nghiep hda va hien dai hda cua dat nude Trong han 50 nam qua chiing ta da cd nhieu nd lire dieu tra, nghien ciru va danh gia che ddng dat tren lanh thd Viet Nam, tirng budc trien khai md rdng pham vi nghien cim toan viing bien Viet Nam va ke can Nhirng ket qua dieu tra nghien cim chii yeu dugc phan anh nhu:ng cdng trinh nhu "phan viing ddng dat lanh thd Viet Nam" (Pham Van Thue va n.n.k, 1985); "Nghien cii-u du bao ddng dat va dao ddng nen lanh thd Viet Nam" (Nguyen Dinh Xuyen va n.n.k, 2004); "Phan viing ddng dat vimg bien Viet Nam va ke can" (Pham Van Thue va n.n.k, 2005) va nhieu cdng trinh da cdng bd khac (Pham Van Thue 2001, Nguyen Kim Lap, 1984, Nguyen Nggc Thuy 2005, Nguyen Van Luang, 2004, Nguyen Hdng Phuong 1993, 2004, Cao Dinh Trilu, 2008, Ngd Thj Lu, 2003, Nguyen Dinh Xuyen va n.n.k, 2006 -2007, Trdn Thj My Thanh 2007-2008) Tir sau xay tham hga sdng thdn d An Do Duang 26/12/2004 lam chit gdn 300000 ngudi va thiet hai vat chat, mdi trudng sinh thai nang nl cho cac nude nhu Indonexia, Thai Lan, Malaysia, Srilanca, Banglades, An Do va nhilu nude khac, nhan thue va su quan tam cua nha nude va nhan dan ta ve dang thien tai ddng ddt va sdng thdn cang nang cao 89 Tieu ban: Khoa hgc cong nghe Bien ISBN: 978-604-913-015-1 Thu hidng chinh phii da ban hanh "Quy chi bao tin ddng ddt va canh bao sdng than" (11/2006) va "Quy che phdng chdng ddng ddt va sdng thdn" (5/2007) Day la nhung van ban phap quy quan trgng, ddi hdi phai tang cudng cdng tac dieu tra nghien cim vl nguy ca ddng dat, sdng than va dam bao an toan phuc vu sir nghiep phat trien kinh tl xa hdi va qude phdng an ninh cua dat nude [15], [16] Cac ket qua ndi bat nghien cim la ban dd xac dinh cac viing ngudn ddng dat va sdng than tren bien Ddng, tap ban dd ve nguy hiem va nii ro ddng dat va sdng than viing \'en bien va hai dao gdm nhirng ban dd dugc tinh toan xay dung lan dau tien d cae ty le 1:500000, 1:200000 va nhirng ty le Idn han niia, hoan toan tien Igi, de dang khai thac sir dung va phat huy hieu qua thirc te Tren ca sd danh gia dinh lugng nguy hiem ddng dat va sdng than, cac giai phap phdng tranh va irng phd khac phuc hau qua thich hgp da dugc de xuat He phuoTig phap nghien cu-u danh gia nguy hiem dong dat va song than 2.1 He phuang phdp phdt hien vd nghien cuu cdc dirt gay Phat hien cac dirt gay theo cac phuang phap dia vat ly (trgng lire, tir, trudng sdng dia chan, trudng dia chan tu nhien) [2], [3], [18] Xac djnh sau, hudng cam cua cac dirt gay; Xac dinh ca che dia ddng lire tren mat cat tdng hgp dja chan va trgng lire; Xac dinh irng suat va ca che dia ddng lire theo ca che chan tieu; Phan loai cae dirt gay theo dac diem cau tnic va quy md phat trien; 2.2 Nghien ciru xdc dinh chuyen dong hien dgi bdng GPS De xac dinh tdc dich chuyen kien tao hien dai d khu vuc Ddng Nam A, de an GEODYSSEA da thiet lap 43 tram tai cac nude Indonexia, Malaysia, Philipin, Bruney va Viet Nam Da tien hanh chu ky dac chi tiet cac nam 1994, 1996 Ddi vdi vimg Biin Ddng, khudn khd de tai nghien cim kien tao tre va dia ddng lire bien Ddng da thue hien ludi GPS vdi chu ky vao cac nam 2007, 2008 va 2009 tai tram la Bach Long VT, Lang (Ha Ngi), Ddng Hdi, Hue, Song Tir Tay, Cdn Dao, Hd Chi Minh, sir dung cae phdn mem xir ly sd lieu hien dai khac de so sanh, ddi chieu va nhan dugc cac kit qua kha dn djnh va chinh xac cao Ket qua GPS mdi tren viing ven biin Viet Nam dugc sir dung dl tdng hgp, ddi chieu vdi ket qua d cac nude khu vuc [14] 2.3 Nghien cuu nguyen nhdn, dieu kien phdt sinh dong ddt vd song thdn Phuang phdp xdc dinh cdc thdng sd viing ngudn • Mmax - Magnitude ddng dat cue dai Dugc danh gia theo cac phuang phap [5], [8], [9], [11], [12]: ngoai suy dia chdn, phuang phap ham phan bd cue tri Gunbell-3, phuang phap danh gia Mmax theo kich thudc cua vimg ngudn nhu chieu dai ngudn (dirt gay), chieu rdng W, dien tich A: M = 4,38 + 1,49 log L(km); M = 4,06 + 2,25.1og W(km); M = 4,07 + 0,98 log A (km^) Thdng thudng chan tieu ddng dat khdng the chiem ca chieu dai dirt gay sinh chdn vi irng suat phan bd khdng deu tren ca chieu dai dut gay ma ddng dat chi xay d nai irng sudt tdi han Nhieu nghien ciru da chirng minh chieu dai chan tieu trung binh = 1/3 chilu dai viing chuan bj irng suat (dut gay) Mmax = 4,38+1,49.1og [L(dg)/3] 90 Hgi nghi Khoa hgc k^' niem 35 ndm Vien Khoa hgc vd Cong nghe Viet Nam - Hd Ngi 10'2010 Cdng thirc dugc sir dung de danh gia ddng dat cue dai cd kha nang xay cae viing ngudn tren Biin Ddng Ddi vdi viing ven bien Viet Nam sir dung cdng thirc thiet lap theo sd lieu Viet Nam: Mmax < log L (km) + 1,77; Mmax < 41og H(km) + 0,50 Trong dd L - chieu dai dirt gay sinh chan, H - be day tang hoat ddng • Moment dia chan Mo: Mo = )iA.u Trong dd \x la model ciia ddt da |i = 3-10" dyn/cm^ A - Dien tich mat dut doan, U - chuyen dich theo dirt doan Chuyen dich trung binh : logA,b(m) = -1,43 + 0,88 log L(km) Chuyen djch cue dai : logAniax(m) = -1,38 + l,021ogL(km) Moment Magnitude Mn,: xac dinh theo moment dia chdn bdng cdng thirc Kanamori: Me = (2/3)(log Mo - 9,05); • M^ = 5,08 + 1,16 logL(km) Do sau chan tieu Hn„n(M^ax) = / H + H ' H - be day tang hoat ddng, h' - be day tang phii phia tren • Chu ky lap lai ddng dat Theo Gulenberg - Richter (dd thi lap lai ddng dat) lgN(N > m) = a - bM N- sd trung binh nam ddng dat magnitude Idn han va bang m a,b la he sd T(M)=10b*''-^"^Vv Theo van tdc chuyen ddng tuang ddi giiia canh dirt gay: a Trong dd a la van tdc chuyen ddng tuang ddi cua canh dirt gay, U la chuyin dich irng vdi ddng dat Magnitude M 2.4 Ddnh gid nguy hiem dgng ddt Viec danh gia va lap tap ban dd nguy hiem ddng dat cho viing ven biin va hai dao Viet Nam dugc thue hien theo quy trinh bao gdm cac budc sau day [8], [9], [10], [13]: Xac dinh cac vimg ngudn chan ddng khu vuc nghien cim; Udc lugng cac tham sd nguy hiem ddng dat cho tirng viing nguon; Thiet lap quy luat tat dan chan ddng cho khu vuc nghien cim; Phuang trinh tat dan chan ddng cua Campbell (1997) [4] dugc lua chgn ap dung cho lanh thd Viet Nam Chuang trinh CRIS1S99 cua Ordaz va cdng sir [10] dugc ap dung dl tinh toan nguy hiem ddng dat cho khu \arc nghien cim Gia tdc cue dai nen (do bdng dan vj % Gai) dugc tinh tai mdi diem ciia mang ludi , r x 0,1° phii len toan viing nghien ciru Cac gia tri lai dugc sir dung de xay dung cac ban dd phan bd khdng gian cua gia tdc cue dai nin {PGA) cho khu vuc nghien cim 91 Tieu ban: Khoa hgc cong nghe Biin ISBN: 978-604-913-01 ^ X 2.5 Phuang phdp tinh vd xdy dung bdn nguy hiem song thdn Ban dd nguy hiem sdng than (NHST) bieu dien cao cue dai sdng than (ST) tai bd biin cae khoang thdi gian khac [1], [17], [19] Nhu vay de xay dung chudi ban dd ta phai thu thap sd lieu cao sdng than da xay Aida (1988) da diing phuang phap tinh cao sdng thdn tir cac ddng dat Ddi vdi mdi ngudn, xac suat de tir dd bien ST Idn hon gia tri cho trudc ho khoang thdi gian T nam dugc tinh bdi: , ^ \pir._,„,^J)A.A>-)>h, Vdi n ngudn, xac sudt dl tir dd bien ST Idn hon gia tri cho trudc ho khoang thdi gian T nam dugc tinh bdi: p{r,h,,T)^\-Y\[\-p{r,r._^^^,h„T)] zone=\ Nam 2006, Eric Gelst da dua phuang phap tinh NHST nhu Aida (1988) va cd tinh them phdn tdn sudt lap lai ddi vdi cac tran ddng dat gay ST dua tren quan he Gutenber Richte Phuang phap mdi dugc ap dung rdng rai tinh ban dd NHST irng vdi cac chu ky quan sat khac [17] Mot so ket qua nghien ciru chinh Tdng hgp va danh gia toan bd ket qua nghien cim ve nguy hiem ddng dat va sdng thdn viing ven bien va hai dao Viet Nam (xem hinh 1, hinh va hinh 3) cho phep nit nhirng ket luan chinh nhu sau: Nghien cim bd sung hoan thien danh muc ddng dat viing Bien Ddng, tren ca sd dd danh gia chung ve che ddng dat theo cac dac trung ca ban da cho thay rd Bien Ddng Viet Nam ed che ddng dat tich cue va phan di cd the phan dinh lam viing khac biet Vimg Tay va Tay Bac Bien Ddng dac trung ca che kien tao nen ep trugt bang vdi cac ddng dat d sau nhd hon 50km, Mmax = 7,3 - viing ria Ddng va Ddng Bac Bien Ddng dac trung ca che nen ep chdm nghich dang ddi hiit chim vdi cac ddng dat manh phan bd den sau 200km, Mmax = 8,3 Viing ria Ddng Nam Bien Ddng md rdng sang phia cae bien Sulu, Banda cd ca che kien tao kieu ddi hut chim vdi cac ddng dat d sau den 500km, viing md rdng vugt khdi pham vi ciia Bien Ddng Dac diem kien tao viing Ddng Nam A vdi cau tnic phan di va che dia ddng lire tich cue hinh hau qua cua sir va cham giira cac mang thach quyen Idn la Thai Binh Duong, An Do Duong va mang luc dia A Au tao nen cac ddi hut chim cd quy md Idn va phat sinh nhiing ddng dat manh vdi nhieu ddng dat gay sdng than Ket qua nghien ciiu xay dung danh muc ddng dat manh khu vuc Ddng Nam A giai doan 1278-2008 va danh gia cac dac trung tinh dja chan ca ban cho thay viing Ddng Nam A cd che ddng dat manh vdi nhieu viing ngudn dang hoat ddng tich cue giai doan hien tai; mot nhiing viing ddng dat hoat ddng manh nhu vay la ddi hut chim Manila tren Bien Ddng nai va cham giira mang thach quyen la Philipin d canh phia ddng va mang Bien Ddng d phia Tay Tdng hgp sd lieu khao sat dia vat ly va ca cau chari tieu cho thdy tren Biin Ddng tdn tai nhilu he thdng dirt gay dang hoat ddng Tren viing Bien Ddng da xac dinh dac diem cau tnic va dia ddng luc ciia nhiing he dut gay Idn nhu he dirt gay ranh sau Manila vdi ca chi ddi hiit chim, he dirt gay Tay Biin Ddng, he dirt gay Bac Bien Ddng dang ca chi nen ep trugt bdng va he dirt gay Ddng nam Biin Ddng (Palawan - Bomeo) cd ca che kiln tao nen 92 Hoi nghi Khoa hgc ky' niem 35 ndm Vien Khoa hgc vd Cong nghe Viet Nam - Hd Ngi 10 2010 ep - chdm nghjch Cac he dirt gay hudng Ddng, Ddng Bdc tren viing trung tarn Bien Ddng va cac viing qudn dao Trudng Sa va Hoang Sa vdi mirc hoat ddng tuang ddi yeu hien tai so vdi nhurng he dirt gay cac viing ria nhu da neu Kit qua khao sat mdi ve dia chat, dia vat ly va chuang trinh GPS nhirng nam qua dugc tdng hgp cho thay ro dac diem hoat ddng tich cue cua he thdng cac dirt gay tre va nui lira plioxen - de tir dgc theo ven bien va them luc dia mien Trung Viet Nam va ven bien phia tay Philipin, xac dinh tdc chuyen ddng trung binh hien tai 24cm/nam theo hudng ddng - Ddng Nam tren ria phia tay Bien Ddng va theo hudng ngugc lai tren ria phia Ddng - Ddng bac (mang Philipin) lam rd ea che kien tao chung cua Bien Ddng la dang ddng lai theo hudng Tay, Tay Bac - Ddng, Ddng Nam vdi mirc bien dang kha phan di, phan phia Bac manh han so vdi phan phia Nam va Ddng Nam Ket qua trudng irng suat kien tao tren cac khu vuc ciing cho thay rd ca che nen ep dang hut chim va chdm nghich tdn tai dgc theo ria phia Ddng Ddng Bac va Ddng Nam Bien Ddng, ca che nen ep dang trugt bang phd bien tren ddi ven ria Tay va Tay Bac Bien Ddng Cac viing ngudn ddng dat va sdng than tren Bien Ddng dugc xac dinh tren ca sd cac viing dirt gay phat sinh ddng dat va danh gia theo cac dac trung ca ban nhu magnitude cue dai, cac thdng sd cau tnic eiia ngudn, dac diem trudng irng suat vimg ngudn, tren ca sd dd da tdng hgp va xay dung ban cae viing ngudn ddng dat va sdng than Bien Ddng ty le 1:1000000 va Ban dd cac viing ngudn ddng dat sdng than viing them luc dia va ven bien Viet Nam ty le 1:500 000 Ket qua xac dinh va danh gia cac viing ngudn cho thay ro cac viing ngudn ddng dat va sdng than cd kha nang gay ddng dat va sdng than tac ddng true tiep dat ven bien Viet Nam la: ddi hiit chim Manila, viing ngudn Bac Bien Ddng va vimg dirt gay Tay Bien Ddng tren them luc dja va ven bien mien Trung Viet Nam Thu thap bd sung va phan tich cac sd lieu khao sat dia chan mdi lam sang td hoat ddng niii lira tich cue nhirng nam gan day, cho thay mirc lien quan cua hoat ddng niii lira vdi ddng dat xay kha tich cue tren viing them luc dia va ven bien Trung Bd Nam Trung Bd Viet Nam nhiing nam 2005-2008 Dac biet lam rd nguy ca trugt Id dat tren mot sd mat cat dia chan tham dd tren sudn luc dia trung va nam Trung Bd nhu mot ngudn sdng than tiem an cac ddng dat xay viing cd the kich thich va tac ddng manh, tao nen hien tugng trugt Id Idn Chuang trinh CRISIS 99 dugc ap dung de danh gia ehi tiet nguy hiem ddng dat cho toan dai ven bien va hai dao Viet Nam va xay dung ban dd nguy hiem ddng dat ven bien va hai dao Viet Nam ty le 1:500000, ban dd nguy hiem ddng dat ven bien Hai Phdng - Quang Ninh ty le 1:200000 Ban dd nguy hiem ddng dat cho thay rd nguy hiem ddng dat phan bd khdng deu tren toan bd dai ven bien va them luc dia Viet Nam Dai ven bien mien Bac tir Quang Ninh den Ha TTnh cd nguy hiem ddng dat cao, hinh mot ddi chan ddng cap VIII vdi gia tri gia tdc cue dai nen dat tir 12.0% den 18.0% Gal Dai tir Quang Binh tdi Khanh Hda deu nam vimg chan ddng tir cap VII den VIII Ddi manh han la ddi Bac Trung Bd bao gdm cac tinh Quang Binh, Quang Tri, Thira Thien-Hue, Da Nang va Quang Nam, vdi gia trj PGA dao ddng khoang tir 8.4%) den 15.6%)Gal Tren mot sd nai thudc cac tinh Ninh Thuan, Binh Thuan va Ba Ria - Viing Tau, chan ddng dugc danh gia len tdi cap VIII Gia tri PGA tren toan viing Bac Nam bd dao ddng khoang tii' 9.6% din 16.8% Gal Hai khu virc tren them luc dia cd nguy hiim ddng ddt cao nhdt la ngoai khai Vinh Bdc Bd va ngoai khai tinh Ba Ria - Vung Tau Ca hai viing dIu cd cdp chdn ddng VIII va gia tri cue dai PGAmax len tdi 18.0%) Gal Cae viing hai dao Hoang Sa va Trudng Sa cd nguy hiem ddng dat thap han, dao ddng khoang tir cdp VI din cdp VII 93 Tiiu ban: Khoa hgc cong nghe Biin ISBN: 978-604-913-015-1 Bdng phuang phap tinh toan va danh gia xac sudt, ban do nguy hiem sdng thdn viing ven biin Viet Nam da dugc xay dung ty le 1:500000 Ban dd nguy hiem sdng thdn ty le 1:200000 dugc xay dung cho khu vuc bd bien Da Nlng - Quang Ngai Cae ban dd nguy hiim sdng than cho thay nguy co cua sdng than tac ddng den cac viing ven biin Trung Trung Bd, Bdc Trung Bd va Nam Trung Bd la kha rd, vdi chu ky lap lai la 475 va 950 nam, cao sdng thdn d viing ven bien Trung Trung Bd tir 3-4m d chu ky 475 nam, 5-6m d chu ky 950 nam cac viing Bdc va Nam Tmng Bd tir 2-3m chu ky 475 nam, 3-4m d chu ky 950 nam Viing qudn dao Hoang Sa la 4m va Tnrang Sa la 2-3m a chu ky 475 nam, va 34m d chu ky 950 nam Ban dd nguy hiim sdng than ven bien Viet Nam ty le 1:500000 va ban dd nguy hiim sdng thdn ven biin E)a Ndng - Quang Ngai 1:200000 la co sd de xac dinh cac khu vuc ed nguy hiim sdng than d mirc khac xac dinh cac viing cd nguy hiim cao dk ap dung cac giai phap phdng ngira phii hgp Tren ca sd cac kit qua nghien cim danh gia kha day du chi tiet ve nguy hiem ddng ddt va sdng thdn tren vimg ven biin Viet Nam da xay dung, bd sung va cu the hoa he thdng cae giai phap phdng chdng va irng phd, giam nhe hau qua ddng dat va sdng than de ap dung cho nhiing viing cd nguy hiem sdng than cao hoac tuang ddi cao Nhiing giai phap quan trgng dugc neu la quy hoach dk xay dung cdng trinh tren viing bd bien cd nguy hiim sdng thdn cao, xay dung va nang cap cac cdng trinh bao ve va ngan, han che sdng than, phat triln trdng rirng phdng hd va can sdng than, lira chgn xay dung nhiing dia diem so tan cd bao ddng sdng thdn d nhiing noi tap tmng ddng ngudi tren bd va bai bien 10 Nhiing giai phap mdi de phdng chdng va giam nhe hau qua ddng dat va sdng thdn dugc dl xudt va hoan thien true tiep tren ca sd ket qua nghien cim la danh gia va phan viing chi tilt nguy hiem ddng dat va sdng than Xay dung va hoan thien he thdng bao tin ddng ddt va canh bao sdng than vdi so dd ket ndi qude te, khu vuc va van hanh thdng nhat, lien tuc haan thu theo quy che bao tin ddng dat va canh bao sdng than ciia Chinh phu Hoat ddng nhanh nhay va kjp thdi cua toan he thdng chinh la giai phap phdng tranh va irng phd quan trgng va cd hieu qua nhat chien luge phdng tranh va giam nhe thien tai chung cua Viet Nam Mot so kien nghi Hoan thien va phd bien rdng rai, dua vao sir dung cac ban dd nguy hiem ddng dat va sdng than d viing ven bien va hai dao Viet Nam lam co sd de trien khai cac bien phap phdng tranh va giam nhe thiet hai phii hgp d nhiing viing cd nguy hiem ddng dat hoac sdng than cao hoac ca nguy ca ndi tren Tiep tuc xay dung ban dd nguy hiem ddng dat va sdng than chi tiet cho nhiing khu vuc cd nguy hiem cao Tien hanh danh gia nii ro cho cac thi va viing trgng diem dan cu, kinh te tren dai ven bien va hai dao Viet Nam Tiep tuc hoan thien va nang cao nang lire ciia cac phan he thdng bao tin ddng dat va canh bao sdng than, tmdc het la xay dung mang tram dia chan vdi thiet bj ghi dia chan dai rdng, cac tram muc nude bien he thdng tram thuy van qude gia, ket ndi true tiep vdi cac tmng tam dja chan, canh bao sdng than va cac tram ddng dat va hai van khu vuc Tiep tuc phat trien va nang cao nang lire hoat ddng cua Trung tam Bao tin ddng dat va Canh bao sdng than Vien Vat ly dia cau Trien khai rdng va manh me cac giai phap tmyen thdng ve phdng tranh va giam nhe hau qua ddng ddt va sdng thdn, dac biet luu y cac giai phap quy hoach va thiet ke, xay dung cac cdng trinh d viing ven bien va tren cac hai dao, xay dung cac he thdng thap bao ddng, lira chgn xay dung cae dja diem so tan sdng than cho nhirng khu vuc ed nguy hiem sdng than cao 94 Hgi nghi Khoa hgc h'' niem 35 ndm Vien Khoa hgc vd Cong nghe Viet Nam - Hd Ngi 10/2010 Tiep tuc khao sat va tang cudng nghien cim danh gia ve nguy ca niii lira va tmgt Id dat cd the la nhirng ngudn ddng dat va sdng than chii yeu tren them luc dja va ven bien mien Tmng nude ta, bd sung them nhirng khao sat dja chat dja vat ly cd chinh xac cao, phat trien va thir nghiem nhirng phuang phap mdi, tinh toan va danh gia cu the nhirng nguy ca phat sinh trugt Id va hoat ddng nui lira tao nen sdng than tac ddng true tilp va viing ven bien nude ta TAI LIEU THAM KHAO Bao cao tdng kit du an HTQT Viet Nam - New Zealand, 2007-2009 Danh gia nguy hiem va nii ro sdng than va irng phd cua Viet Nam Vien Vat ly dja cdu (Viet Nam) Vien Khoa hgc dja chat va hat nhan (New Zealand) Ha Ndi-Wellington Biii Cdng Qui va n.n.k, 2001 Dac diem cac tmdng dja vat ly, cdu triic vd trai ddt va tiem nang khoang san viing quan dao Tmdng Sa Tap chi khoa hgc cdng nghe biin N1/2001-Ha Ndi Biii Cdng Que va nnk., 2005 Xay dung tap ban dd nhung dac tmng ca ban vl dilu kien tu nhien va mdi tmdng viing bien Viet Nam va kl can Bao cao tdng kit dl tai KC-09-02 Chuang trinh nghien cim biin KC-09- Ha Ndi Campbell K W., 1997: Empirical Near - Source Attenuation Relationship for Horizontal and Vertical Components of Peak Ground Acceleration, Peak Ground Velocity, and Pseudo -Absolute Acceleration Response Spectra, Seismological Research Letters, Volume 68, Nl, Jan./Feb 1997 Earthquake Hazards program U S Geological Survey (USGS), National Earthquake Information Center World Data Center for Seismology, Denver Gumbel E., 1962 Statistics of Extremes Colombia University press New York National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC), 12/2004 - 1/2005 Nguyen Dinh Xuyen (chii nhiem), 2004: Nghien cim du bao ddng ddt va dao ddng nin d Viet Nam, Bao cao tdng ket de tai ddc lap cdp Nha nude, Vien Vat ly Dja cdu, Vien KHCN VN, Bd KHCN VN Nguyen Dinh Xuyen, 2008 Nghien cim danh gia nguy hiim sdng thdn viing ven bien Viet Nam va cac giai phap phdng tranh Bao cao tong kit dk tai cdp Vien Khoa hgc va Cdng nghe Viet Nam Vien Vat ly dja cau Ha Ndi 10 Nguyen Hdng Phuang, Biii Cdng Qui va Nguyen Dinh Xuyen, 2009: Khao sat cac viing ngudn sdng than cd kha nang gay nguy hiem tdi viing bd bien Viet Nam, Tap chi cac khoa hgc ve Trai Dat 11 Nguyen Kim Lap, 1986 Mot sd dac diem ciia chi dja chdn va tmdng irng sudt lanh thd Ddng Nam A Cae cdng trinh nghien cim khoa hgc cua Vien Vat ly Dja cdu, vien KHVN Ha Ndi, 1986(2) Tap (1985 - 1986) Tr.I5-20 12 Nguyen Van Luang, 1999 Dac dilm biin dang vd trai ddt cac he dirt gay sau hoat ddng d ven bien Viet Nam Cac cdng trinh nghien ciru dja chdt - dja vat ly biin Ha Ndi 13 Pham Van Thue 2005 Danh gia nguy hiim cua ngudn sdng thdn tai ria phia tay Philippines tdi dai ven biin nude ta Tap chi Khoa Hgc va Cung nghe biin 4(t4) 29-41 95 Tieu ban: Khoa hgc cong nghe Bien ISBN' 978-604-913-015-1 14 Phan Trgng Trjnh, 2010 (chii bien) Nghien cim hoat ddng kiln tao tre, kiln tao hien dai va dja ddng lire Bien Ddng lam ea sd khoa hgc cho viec du bao va phdng tranh tai bien dja chat Bao cao tdng ket de tai cap nha nude Chuang trinh (2006 - 2010) Ha Ndi 15 Quylt djnh 264/2006/QD-TTg 16/11/2006 eiia Thii thudng chinh phu ban hanh "Quy che bao tin ddng dat va canh bao sdng than d Viet Nam" 16 Quylt djnh 78/2007/QD-TTg 29/5/2007 ciia Thii tudng chinh phu ban hanh "Quy che phdng chdng ddng dat va sdng than" 17 Tran Thi My Thanh, 2008, Quy trinh cdng nghe danh gia nguy hiem sdng than va canh bao nguy co sdng than viing ven bien Viet Nam Bao cao de tai KHCN cap Vien Khoa hgc va Cdng nghe Viet Nam Vien Vat ly dia cau Ha Ndi 18 Tran Tuan Diing va nnk., 2006 Kien tao diit gay theo minh giai tai lieu trgng lire viing them luc dja ddng nam Viet Nam Tap chi Khoa hgc va Cdng nghe biin, Vien Khoa hgc va Cdng nghe Viet Nam, T.2, 124-133 19 Vii Thanh Ca, 2008 (ehii bien) Xay dung ban dd canh bao nguy ca sdng thdn cho cac viing bd bien Viet Nam Cac kjch ban sdng thdn tren Biin Ddng Bao cao tdng kit du an KHCN Bd Tai nguyen va Mdi tmdng Vien Khoa hgc tugng thuy van mdi tmdng Ha Ndi 96 Hgi nghi Khoa hgc ky mem 35 ndm Vien Khoa hgc vd Cong nghe Viet Nam - Hd Ngi 10 2010 20 Hinh Cdc viing ngudn ddng ddt vd sdng thdn vimg Bien Ddng vd Idn can Hinh Bdn dd nguy hiim ddng ddt ty' le 1:500 000 (chu ky 950 ndm, nin logi A): a) Cdc tinh ven biin Miin Bdc; b) Cdc tinh ven biin Mien Trung vd Hodng Sa; c) Cdc tinh ven biin Miin Nam vd Tnrang Sa •••K % ^ 'S m^ * A^ '\» Hinh Bdn dd nguy hiim sdng thdn ven biin ty le 1:500.000 (chu ky 950 ndm); a) Cdc tinh ven bien Miin Bdc; b) Cdc tinh ven biin Miin Trung vd Hodng Sa; c) Cdc tinh ven biin Miin Nam vd Truang Sa 97 ... gia ehi tiet nguy hiem ddng dat cho toan dai ven bien va hai dao Viet Nam va xay dung ban dd nguy hiem ddng dat ven bien va hai dao Viet Nam ty le 1:500000, ban dd nguy hiem ddng dat ven bien Hai... ky 950 nam cac viing Bdc va Nam Tmng Bd tir 2-3m chu ky 475 nam, 3-4m d chu ky 950 nam Viing qudn dao Hoang Sa la 4m va Tnrang Sa la 2-3m a chu ky 475 nam, va 34m d chu ky 950 nam Ban dd nguy hiim... 1:200000 Ban dd nguy hiem ddng dat cho thay rd nguy hiem ddng dat phan bd khdng deu tren toan bd dai ven bien va them luc dia Viet Nam Dai ven bien mien Bac tir Quang Ninh den Ha TTnh cd nguy hiem