1^/;; Khoo hoc vd Cong iighe hicn lodn L/IIUC IHII ihir y MOT SO KET QL A \ t DANH GIA DO NGUY HIEM DONG D ^ '• \'X SONG TILVN \ UNG VEN BIEN, HAI DAO VIET NAM VA CAC GIAI PHAP UNG PHO PHONG TRANH Bili Cnntz Que', Tran T u i n Dung\ Nguyen Dinh Xuyen', Nguyen Ilong Plimnig', Tran Thj My Thimh', Phan Trong T n n h 'Vien Val l< dia eau; "Vicn Dia chit - Dia viil ly bicn; ^Vien Dja ehfil ll anluandung''f/\'ahoo.eom Xgliiin ciru Idng herp cdc due diim dia chdn kien teio, cue he ilul gdy In ui dcmg diu ddng lire hien deu vd tnie'mg irng sudi co bdn tren them luc diu ' ui Mun vd Bii-n Ddng xdc dinh cue diic irung vd thong so cdu trite dong luc , ,,u cdc vimg ngui)n lu co sa di' de'mh gid dd nguy hiem ddng ddt vd sdng than ('de bun dd vimg ngudn vu di) nguy hiim de)ng ddt sdng thdn tren viing bien vu i ii hiin Id nhieng kit qua dinh luemg chi tiel duu lien ve dang tai bten de')iig ':':! .sdng thdn er Viet Num Id ca ser de xdy dung cdc de xudl nhdm irng phn vd phdng trdnh hiru hieu nguy cer ddng ddt vd sdng thdn Nhirng giui phc'ip co ban bao gum phdn vitng chi tie! dd nguy hiem ddny tiiit .se'mg ihdn ddnh gid rut ro xdy dung hi} thdng hdo tin dgng ildl canh bdo sdng thun quy hocich xdy ihrng cong trinh chdng dgng ddl sdng than trin duimg bd bien thiet ke xe'iy dieng cdc cdng Irinh phdng chdng, hgn che imh hirirng ctta de)ng dal sdng thdn er vung bd bien vd ce'ic iluo co nguy hiem cao ciing vdi CC'IC giui phdp khdc phuc thien lai xay SOM!-: RESUL'fS ON TSUNAMI AND EAR'fl IQUAKE HAZARD ASSESSMI'NTS IN THE VlliTNAM CO.'VSTAL ISLAND AREAS AND SOLUTIONS OF PREPAREDNESS AND PREVENTION Bui Cona Que', Tran Tuan Dung', Nf^uycn Dinh Xuyen', Nguyen Ilong Pluiong , Tran Thi My Thanh', Phan Trong Trinh^ Abstract: Integrated study of the leclonic-seistnic feulures, active Juult system- neogeoelynumics and the stre.s.ses in the continenlul shelf and the East \ lanum Sea, identify the characierislics und puraineieis ofthe source zimes as a I'usis lo assess the eariluptcike-t.sunami liuzurd The maps of source zonc-^ un^^ em thqtieike-ts unamt heizurd tn the coastal zone and continental shelf ui e tbn "fieu ban Diu li Dm c bin vu Dia veil lv Biin priinury deluded qiiuntilutive results in I'ieinum They ure ulso the busts lu develop the pioposals In onler lo respond unci uvoid effectively the risk of eurthquukes and Isunuinis The busic solutions comprise of deluiled zunulion of eurtlujuuke-lsunumi buzurd risk assessment, building u nulionul system of eurlhquuke infoniuiticm undisunutni -warning, planning und designing ihc con.struclions of euribqiiukeisitnuini prevenlion on the couslul zones, reducing the impucl of the eurthquiike tsunumi in couslul ureus und islands wilh high risk, along ii //// lbe remedies when a disu\ler occurs MO I) \ l Viing \'cn bien \'ii hai dao Viet Nam da \ii dang hi dia ban phiit nien kinh le, xii lioi quoc phong \ ii an ninh \ ciing quan Irong diie biel lis sir nghiep ciing nghiep hoa \ a hicn dill hoil CLia d;ll niuie 'frong htrn 50 niim qua ehung la dii eo nhicu no luc dicu tra nghien ciru \ii danh gid ehe dp dong diil Ircn liinh tho Viet Nam limg buoc Iricn khai mo rong pham \i nghien eiru loan viing biC'ii Viet Nam \a ke can Nhung ket qua dieu tra nghien ciru ehu \cu ditoc phiin iinh Irong nhiiiig ciing trinh nghiC'n eiru ciia Pham Viin Thuc \a n.n.k 1985 2001 2005 NguCc-n Dinh Xu\en va n.n k 2004 2006 2008; Ngu\en Knii Lap 1984; Ngu\'eii Ngoc fbu} 2005 Ngu\cn Van Luong 2004; NgLi>cn Hflng Phuong 1993 2004 Cao Dinh 'irifiu 2008; Ngo fhi [.u 2003 "fran 'fhi My Fhiinh 2007-2008 |2.9| Tir sau xa}' tham boa song thiin ci An Do duang 26/12/2004 lam ehei giin 300000 iiguiTi \a ihiel hai \'al chiit moi iruimg sinh thai nang ne cho eiic nuoc nhu Indonexia, fhai Lan Malassia Sriianca, Banglades An Do va nhii:u nuoc khae nluin thirc va sir quan liim cim nhii nuoc va nhan dan la \e dang thicn lai dpng diil vii song liiiin cang niing cao 'fbu luong ehinh phii da ban himh "Quy chfi bao Im dpng diil vii canh bao song ihin" (11/2006) \ a " Q u y chfi phong chong dong dil vii song thin" (5/2007) Day la nhung vim biin phap qu\' quan trpng diii hoi phai lang cucmg cc'ing Uie dieu Ira nghiC-n Cliu \e nguy ca dciiig diil scing thiin va dam bao an loan phuc vu su ngbicp phiil Iricn kinh te xa hpi \ii quc'ie phcmg an mnh ciia diil nuac 114.15] Cae kel qua ncii biit nghien ciru la ban xac dinh eac vimg ngucin dong dal vii song than tren Bien DOng liip ban xc ngu> hifim va rui ro dc)ng dal va scing than vung \'cii biC'ii \a hdi dao gom nhfrng ban duoc lmh loan xiiy dung lan diin ticn ci ede ly lc 1:500000 1:200000 vii nhmig ty lc kin hon nua hoan loan lien lcri dc dang khai ihac sir dung va phdl huy hicu qua Irong thuc le 'frfin ca sci diinh gia dinh luc^ng dp nguy hicm dpng dill \a scing than, cac giai phdp phong tranh va irng khac phue hiiu qua thich hcrp dadirgc dfi xuil L He c;ic phuo'ng phiip nghien eiiu Li- Cc'ic phinrng phdp xuc dinh due diem diit gely Pbai hifin va xdc duih dac dicm cac dii'l gay Ihco cac phuong phdp dja viil ly (irong lire, 4Q5 Ildl nghi Khoa hoc vd Ceing nghe hienioiin qim, lim ihirf lir trutmg scing dja chin Iruong dia chan lu nhifin) [2.3.17]: Xac dinh dc) sau hire'mg cam ciia cac din gay Xac djnh CO chfi dia dpng luc irCm mat eat teing hop dia chan \ a trpng lue Xac dinh irng suit va ea che dia dong luc theo eo ebe chan lieu: Phan loai cac dirt gay iheo dac diem eau tnic xix quy mo pbat trien 1.2 Xcic dinh dich chuyiin hien deji hdng GPS De \ac djnh loc dp dich chuyen kifin lao hicn dai ci khu vuc Dc)ng Nam A dfi an GI'X)DYSSEA da thiel liip 43 tram lai cae nucVc Indonexia Mahusia, Philipin, iMuncy \a Vifit Nam Di: dn dii lien hiinb chu k\ dac chi liel irong ciie nam 1994, 1996 DCi voi vimg Bien Dcmg khiicin kho dfi lai nghien ciru kien lao Ire \ ii dia dpng hic Bien Dcing da thuc hicn luoi GPS \cVi ehu ky vao cde nam 2007, 2008 \d 2009 tai / Irani la Bach Long VT Liing (lla Noi) Dc")ng licVi, Hue Song 'fir 'lay Con Dao Ho Chi Minh sir dimg eac phiin mcin \ir 1\ si) lieu hicn dai khde de so sdnh, dai chieu \ a nhan dirpc eac ket qua khd c'ln dinh va chinh xde eao Kfit qua CiPS nuii trfin \ img xen bifin Vict Nam ducrc sir dung dc long hgp, dc'ii ehifiu \6i ket qud cicac nuae Irong khu vue 113] 1.3 .\iic dinh cdc vung ngudn vii chinh giu thdng sd cc'ic vung ngudn dijng Um vii se'mg thdn 'fliimg so CO ban ciia ngiiiin can xdc dinh la magnitude Mmax eiia dimg ddl cue dai c6 khd niing xa> ihuang sir dung magnitude \/s theo song nial va iiiagnitude \lw theo monienl dia chan, moment dia chiin Mo, siiu chdn lieu nho nhiil eua dpng dal circ dai, lan sual dong diil dai Cdc thong so dirge xac djnh nhu sau [4.7.9,10.12]' Mmax - Magnitude dong dal cue dai Dugc danh gia Ihco cac phuang phap ngoai suy dja ehal phuang phdp hiim phiin bo cue trj Gunbell-3 phuong phap danh gia Khnax theo kieh tbircVc eiia \'img nguon nhir chifiu dill ngu()n (dirl gay), chieu rpng W dien tich A: M - 4.38 + 1.49 log L(km) M - 4.06 + 2.25 log \V(km); M - 4.07 + 0.98 log A (kni^) Moment dja chan Mo : Mo = ^lA.u 'frong (.i la model ciia dal da |i ^ 3-IO" dyn/cni^, A - Dien lich miit dirl doan, U ehuycn djch theo dirt doan Dp sau chin lieu i in„nlMm.,v) = 2/3H + 11' 11 - be da\ tiing boat dpng h' - be day ting pbu phia trfin Chu k> lap lai dpng dat: •' Theo quan he magnitude-tan suil Gutcnberg-Richter: lgN(M> m) - a - b M N- sci irung binh nam dung dal magnitude lan ban \a bing m a.b ia he so fieu ban Diu If Dtu ejidl vd Diu veil ly Bie •^ fhco \'an Uie eliu\cii dong luanu dc'ii aiira cdnh diit gfiv: T = — a Trong a la van uie chuyen dpng tucmg doi eiia canh dirt giiy, U la chuyen dich img voi dpng dal Magnitude M 1.4 Diinh gid dc} nguy hletn dcjng ddt Vice ddnh gia \'a thiinh liip lap ban dci nguy hiem dong dal eho viing ven bien \'a hai dao VietNam dugc thuc hifin theo quy irinh buo gom cae buoc sau day [8,9.10,11,12]: Xde dinh cac vung iigLion chdn dpng kbu \'uc nghifin ciru; Uac lugng eae tham sci nguy hicm dpng dal cho lirng viing ngucin; Thicl lap qu) lual lat diin chan dpng cho khu \Lrc nghifin ciru Phuang trinh tat diin ehan dong ciia Campbell (1997) [4] dugc lira ehpn dp dung cho lanh tho Viei Nam Chuang trinh CR1S1S99 ciia Orduz va cpng su [10] ducrc dp dung dfi tinh loan dp nguy hicm dong dat eho khu vuc nghifin cuu Gia loc cue dai nfin (do bang don vi % Gal) dugc linb lai ni6i diCmi eiia mang krcii , r ' x 0,1° phii lfin lodn vimg nghifin Cliu Cdc gui tri niiy lai dirge sir dung de xay dung eae ban phan bo khong gian eiia gia toe cue dai nfin {PGA) cho khu vue nghifin ciru, 1.5 Pbuong phdp tinh vd xdy duttg bdn de) nguy hii'in sdng thdn Ban dp nguy hiem song ihan (NHST) bieu dicn dp eao cue dai song than (ST) lai bo bien eac khoang ihcri gian khac [1.16], Nhu vay de xay dung chuoi ban taphai lhu thap so lieu dc) eao song thiin da xay Aida (1988) da diing phuang phap linh cao song than lir cae dc)ng dal Doi vcii mcri ngucin, xae sual dfi tir bicn dc) S'f kin hon gia tri cho truoc ho khoang thai gian T nam dugc linh bai: lp('-^,.r-T^lK.A>-)^!h Vdi n nguon, xae suat de tir bicn S'f lein hon gia tri cho truoc ho khoang thoi gian T nam duge tinh beii: M'-,/7„.r) = l - Y\[\-p{r.r .,b,.T)\ Niim 2006 Eric Gclst da dua phuong phdp tinh dp NHST nhu Aida (1988) vii eo tinh Ihfiiii phiin tan suat lap lai doi vcii cac Iran dc)ng diit gay ST dua lri;n quan he Gulenber - Richie Phirong phap nioi dugc ap dung rcing rai tinh ban NHS'f irng vai cac chu k\ quan sat khae [ 16] Mp( so ket qua nghien ciiu chi'nh Tong hgp va ddnh gia toiin bp kcl qua nghifin ciru ve dp nguy hiem dcing dat va song than vung ven bien va hai dao Viet Nam (xem hinh I hinh va hinh 3) cho phep rin nhung ket luan ehinh nhu sau: Ildl nv,hi Khoa hoe vd Cdng nghe hien loan quo \ e h i e i i euu bo sung hoan ibien danh muc dc)ng dal \ i m g Bicn D o n g , nfin co so diinh eia eiiung \ e chfi dci dpng dal ihco cac d i e irirng co ban da cho ihfn ui Bifin Dimg \ i c i Nam cil ehe di) dgng d i l lieh cue \ d phan di co ilie phiin djnh kim \ u n g kbiie biOi V i i i m l a \ \ i i l d \ b i e Bifin Di'mg dac irung c a c h e kifin Uio nen ep ircrot Ixing \ o i LML dong d i l a dd siiu nho htm k m M m a \ ^ 7.3 - \ u n g na Dcing va D o n g B i i c Bien Ddng J.v trung cir chfi nen c'p eham nghich dang Jdi hul chim \ t r i eae dong diil manh phan bd dfin dp hdu 200km M m a x - 8.3 \ ung ria Ddng Nam Bien Dcing m a rcing sang phia eiic bifiii Sulu Baiida cd co chfi kifin lao kieu diri hiil ehim \ o i cdc dpng ddl o dd hdu dfin 'OOkin, \ u n g nil) miT rdng \ i r o t khoi pham \ i eiia Bifin Ddng, Diic difim kifin lao x i m g Ddng nam A \ d i cau luie pban di \ a chfi dd dia dd.iL 'uc iich cue hmh thdnh hdu qua eua su \ a chain giira cde mang thach q i i \ c i i Ic'm la I hdi Binh Duong \ n Dd Duc)ng \ a mang liic dia A A u Eao nfin eac ddi bin ehim ed qu> m i lirn \ii phill Miih nluing dimg diu manh \ i r i nhifiu ddng ddl gdy song than K e l t[Lia nghifin c\m \dv dung danh miie ddng diil manh khu \ire Ddng nam V giai doan 1278-2008 \ i i ddnh gid cdc ddc liLing linh dia chdn cir han cho ibav \ i m g Ddng nam A cd chfi dc) ddng ddi manh \cii nhifiu \cing ngudn dang hoat ddng lich cue giai doan hifin Xm m o l iihung \iing ddng dal boat dcing manh n h u \a_\ la ddi hin chim Manila tren Bien Ddng ncri \ a cham giua mang ibach q u \ f i n ki Plnlipm d canh phia Ddng \ a mang Bien D d n g o |ihia Idy Tdng hcrp sd lieu khao sdl dia \ at 1} \ a ccr cau chan lifiu cho thay trfin Bifin Ddu;j ldn lai nhifiu he ibdng dirt gii\ dang hoai ddng Trfin \ u n g Bien Dong dii xdc dinh dac Jifini cau tnie \ a dia ddng luc cua nhfrng hfi dirt g.i_\ kin nhir hfi diit ga\' ranh sau Manila \ i ' i coclic ddi hiil c h i m he dirt gii> Vdch ddc Ddng Vifii N a m he d i n gay Bac Bifin Ddng dang eo ebe nfin ep iruirt bang \ a be dirl gay D d n g N a m Bien Ddng (Palawan - Bomeo) cd eoclie kifin lao nen ep - c h d m nglucli Cac he diri gay hirdng ddng, D d n g Bae Ircn viing iiuiig liini Bien Ddng \ d cac \ img qudn ddo "frudng Sa vii Hodng Sa v d i miie boat dowi uitrngdoi yeu irong hifin lai so vcii nhfrng he dirt gay cae viing ria nhu da nfiu Cdc \ iing ngudn ddng ddt \'a sdng than Iren Bifin Ddng dupe xae dinh trfin ccr so cdc vimg dirt ga\ phai smh dc)ng din \ i i ddnh gia theo cac diic i r m i g ca ban n h u magniUide cue dai cac ihdng so cdu tnic cua ngudn, dae difim trudng i m g sual v i i n g ngudn irfin co sd dii ldng hop \ d xa\' d i m g ban dd ede viing ngudn dc)ng dal vii sdng t h i n Bifin Ddng ly j? 1:1000000 \ d Ban eae \ u i i g ngudn dcrng dat sdng i h i n \'img ibem Iuc dja \ a \en bifin V i c l Nam ly lfi 1:500 000 Kfit qua xde dnih \ a danh gid cdc v i m g ngudn cho ihav ro cdc vung ngudn ddng dal \ a sdng than cd kba nang ga\ dpng d i l va sdng t h i n ldc ddng true licp ddl \ e n bifin \ ' i f i i N a m la: diri hiil chim Manila, vimg nguem Bdc B i c n D d n g \ a -.ung dirt gay Vach dcic Ddng \*ici Nam tren ihfi-m ! u c d j a \ a \ c n bifim mien T r u n g V i c t Nam Chuong trinh CRISIS 99 duerc dp dung dC> danh gia ehi tiet nguy hifim dong dat clio loan dai \ e n bifin \ a bdi dao V i c l N a m \ a xay dung ban dd dp nguy hifiiii dong dal vcn bicn va hai dao X'ifil N a m ty lc 1:500000, ban di\ nguy hifimi dfrnu d i l \ e n biC'ii Hai Phong - Quang N m h i> lfi 1,200000 Ban dc) nguy hiem dpng d i t cho i h i - ' d dp nguy hiem ddng ddt pban bd khdng dfiu Ircn loim bg dai ven bifin va thfim luc dja \';fit Nam- Da' vcn bifin mien Bac lir Quang N i n h dfin I la 'I m h ed nguy hifim d g n g d i l cau liinh tbanh nic)l ddl chdn ddng cap \ ' l l l \ d i gia tri gia (6c cue dai nfin dat lir 12 % dfin 18.0% G^'- fii'U bun Dui li Dtu e bdi vu Dm veil lv Bien Dai tir Quang Binh tdi Khanh Ilda deu nam irong \iing chan ddng lir eiip VII dfin Mil Qa\ nianli Inm la deii Biie frung Bd bao gdm cae tinh Qudng Binh, Quang 'frj flura Thicn-l Inc Dd Nang \'a Quang Nam \cii gia trj PCi.V dao ddng khoang lir 8.4% dfin |5.6°'uCial I rfin mcri sd ntri ihude eae linh Nmh fhuan Binh Thuan \a Ba Rja-Vung 'Idu chin ddng dircre danh gia len tdi cap VIIL Gid trj PG.\ tren loan viing Bac Nam Bd dao done irong khoang lir 9.6% den 16 8% Gal Bang phircrng phap tinh loan \a danh gia xac sual ban dd dp nguy hifim sdng than vimg ven bifin \ lei Nam da dcrcre xdy dung ly Ifi '500000 Bdn dd dp nguy bifini sdng Ihan i\ le 1:200000 ducrc xa\ dirng cho khu \ue bd bien Da Niing - Quang Ngiii Cac bdn dd dp nguy hicm sdng than eba thdy iigu\' ccr ciia sdng thim lac ddng den cdc \iing \en bicn Trung 'frung bp Bae [rung be) \a Nam 'Irung bp la kha rd \c'ri ehu ky lap iai la 475 \d 950 nam, dp eao song thdn d \ iing \ en bifin frung i rung bd lir 3-4ni o ehu ky 475 nam, 5- 6ni d ehu ky 950 niim cac \iing Bae \d Nam frung be) lir 2-3ni chu ky 475 nam, 3-4m d chu ky 950 nam Viing qudn dao I lodng Sa Id 4m \a 'frudng Sa Id 2-3ni d chu ky 475 niim, \'a 3-4ni d chu ky 950 nam Ban dp iigu\ hiem sdng ihdn \en bifin Viet Nam ly lfi 1:500000 vd ban dd de) nguy hifim ^dng ihdn \'cn bifin Dd Nang - Quang Ngiii 1:200000 la ea sd dfi xae dinh cac khu virc cd dp ngii\' hifim sdng ihan cr nuic dp khiie xac dinh eac vung cd dp nguy hicm cao dc dp dimg ede gun phap phdng ngua phii hcTp 'Irfin ctr scr cde kfii qua nghifin eiiu ddnb gid kha diiy dii chi tifit \i nguy hifim ddng ddl va sdng ihan trfin \'Lmg \en bifin V'lfii Nam da xdy dung, bd sung \a cu the hod he thdng cac gidi phap phdng chdng xd irng phd gidm nhe hiiu qua dpng dal va song than dfi dp dyng cho nbiriig vimg ed dc) nguy bifini sdng than eao hoac tuong ddi cao, Nhung gidi phap quan li'png dircrc nfiu Id quy hoach dfi xdy dung eong trinh trfin \ iing bd bifin ed de) nguy hicm sdng llidii cao, xay dung \ a nang cap cdc cdng trinh bao \ c va ngan, ban ehe song than, phat trifin irdng rirng phdng hd \a can sdng than, Iua chpn xay dung nhu'ng dia dicm so lan ed bdo dpng sdng than d nhung noi tap trung ddng ngudi trfin bd va biii bien Nluing gidi phdp nidi de pbong chdng va gidm nhe hau qua dpng dat va sdng than ducTc dc Miiu \a hoan thifin true tifip trC-n ca sd kel qua nghien eiru la danh gia va phan viing chi ticl dp ngu\' hifim ddng dat \a sdng than Xay dung \a hoan thien he thdng bdo tin dc)ng dat va canh bao sdng than vcii so dd ket ndi qudc lc khu vue xix \an banh thong nhat, lifin tlic Ulan lhu theo quy ehe bao lin ddng dal \a canh bao sdng than ciia Chinh phii Hoai dong nhanh nhay \a kip thdi ciia loan he thdng chinb la giai phap phdng tranh \a ling phd quan trpng \a cd hifiu qua nhiit Irong chicn luge phong tranh va giam nhe thifin tai chung ciia Vifit Nam Hen nglu Khoa hue vd Cdng nghi' hicn tudn qudi hui ihir y Hmh • Cdc vitng ngudn dgng ddt vd sdng thdn vitng Biin Ddng v RA( ban Dia lv, Dui chiu vd Dia vdt ly Bien Hinh 2: Bdn do nguy hiem ddng ddt t] le 1:500 000 (chu ky 950 nam, nen loai A): a) Cue tinh ven bien Mien Bdc b) Cdc tmh ven bien Mien Trung vd Hoiing Sa: c) Cite tinh ven hien Mien Nam vd Trudng Sa ! '^ Hinh Bdn do nguy hiem sdng thdn ven bien ty le 1:500.000 (chu ky 950 nam): a) Cdc tinh ven bien Mien Bdc; b) Cdc tinh ven bien Mien Trung vd Hoiing Sa; c) Cdc tinh ven bien Midn Nam vd Truang Sa Mot so kien nghi ? Hoan thien va bien rgng rai, dua vao su dung eac ban dp nguy hiem dpng dat va song than a vimg ven bien va hai dao Viet Nam Iam ea sd de trien khai cac bien phap phong tranh va giam nhe thiet hai phu hgp d nhiing vimg cd nguy hiem ddng dat hoae song ihiin eao hoac ca nguy co ndi tren Tiep tuc xay dung ban do nguy hicm dgng dat \a sdng thiin chi tiet cho nhirng khu vuc c6 dp nguy hiem cao Tien hanh danh gia rui ro cho cac dd thj va vimg trpng diem dan eu, kinh te tren dai ven bien va hai dao Vict Nam Ticp tuc hoan thien va nang cao nang luc ciia cac phan he thdng bao tin dpng dat va canh bao sdng than, trudc het la xay dung mang tram dia chan vdi thiet bj ghi QJa chan dai rpng, cae tram muc nude bien he thdng tram thuy van qude gia, ket noi trirc ticp vdi cac trung tam dja chan, canh bao sdng than va cac tram dgng dat va hai Ildl nghi Khoa lioc vd Cdng nglie hidn ii \'an khu \'uc I iep tue phat trie'n va ndng cao nang lue boat ddng cua I riniL' idni Ikio lin ddng dil \ a Canh bao sdng than Vifin \'di i\ dia cau Iricn khai rdng xh manh mc cdc giai phdp truyfin Ihdng \fi phdng trdnh \'a giani nhe hau qua ddng dit va sdng than, dd dac bifit luu y cac gidi phap qu\ hoach \a ihifii i,^."_ xay dung cde edng Irinh a \iiiig ven hifim \a trfim cdc hdi diio xa> dung cae he ihdng ihap bdo de)ng lua chpn xd\ dung cdc dja difini so ldn sdng liidn eho nhung kbu vuc co nguy hiem sdng ibaii eao iep lue khao sat va King cudng nghic-n cim ddnh gia \ fi ngu\ co niii lua \ a irugt kr dil CO thfi Id nhimg ngudn deing dal \a sdng ihan chu yfiu Ucn lliCmi lue dia \a \en hifi-n mifin i rung nueic la bd sung ihfiiii nhung khao sdl dia cbal dja \dl ly ed dc) cbinh xac cao phai trifin \d thir nghiem nhirng phucmg phap mdi, linh loan \'ii danh gia cu llifi nhung ngu\ ca phdt sinh Irircrt \a \ a boat dc)ng mii lua lao nfin sdng ihdn ldc ddng true nfip \ii \ung ven bien nuc'rc la TAI LILU IN \ M KIIAO Biio cdo king kfi-t du an i I fQ f Vifin Nam - Niu Di Ldn 2007-2009 Ddnh gia dd nguy hifim \d rui ro song than \a img phd cua \ ifil Nam \'ifin \'dl Is dia edu (Vifii Nam) \'ifin Khoa bpc dia dial \ a bai nhan (\in Di Lan) Ha Ndi-W'ellinglem Bili Cdng Qufi \"d n.n k 2010 Nghifin eiiu ddnh gid dci ngLi> hifim ddng dal \d sdng than \iiiig \en bifin va bai dao Vifii Nam \a dc xual cac giai phdp phdng lidnh giam IIIK- hau qua Bao cdo tfimg hgp kfit qud de lin Kl ICN ma sd D IDI, 2007G/45 Bill Cdng Qufi \ a nnk 2005 Xa\' dung ldp bdn dd nhung diic trung co bdn \'e dicu kiC'n lu nhifin \'d nidi It uimg \iing bicn \'ifit Nam va kc can Bao caa ldng kel de liii KC-09-02, Chuong irinh nghifin ciru bifin KC-09-1 la Ndi Campbell K \V,, 1997: Empirical Near-Source Attenuation RckUionship for Horizontal and Vertical Components of Peak Ground Acceleration Peak Ground Velocit), and Pseudo-Absolute Acceleration Response Spectra, Seismological Research Lellers Volume 68 N l , Jan./Pcb 1997 I-arlhquake Hazards program U S Geological Sun'ey (USGS) Nalional I arlhquakc Information Center World Data Center for Seismology Denver Gumbcl li, 1962 Statistics of lixlremes, Colombia Univcrsit\ press New i ork Nalional liaribquake Information Center (NlilC) 12/2004 - 1/2005 Ngu\ fin Dinb Xuyfin (chu nhifim) 2004 Nghien ciru du bao dcing dil \a dao dpng nfin a Vifii Nam Bao cao tdng kfit dc lai ddc lap cip Nha mrdc Vien Viil lv Dja cdu Vifim Kl iCN VN Bd KHCN VN Ngu\fin Dinh Xuyfim, 2008 Nghifin ciru danh gia nguy hifim sdng than vimg ^'^'i bien Vifii Nam va eac gidi phdp phdng Hdnh Bdo cao long ke-l dfi tdrcip Vifin Khoa hoe va Cdng nghfi Vifii Nam Vifin Val Iy dja ciu I la Ndi " fliu ban DIU ly Diu chul vu Diu veil ly Bien 10 Nguyen Ildng Phuong Bui Cdng Qufi va Nguyen Dinh Xuyen, 2009: Khao sat cac viing nguon sdng than cd kha nang gay nguy hiem tdi viing bd bicn Vict Nam, Tap chi cac khoa hgc vfi Trai Ddt H- Nguyen Kim Lap, 1986 Mpt sd dac dicm ciia che dp dja chan va trudng irng suat lanh thd Ddng Nam A //Cae edng trinh nghien cim khoa hpe cua vicn Vat Vat ly Dja ciiu vienKHVN HaNgi, 1986(2) Tap (1985-1986) tr.15-20 12 Pham Viin Thue 2005 Danh gia dp nguy hicm ciia nguon sdng than tai ria phia Tay Philippines tdi dai vcn bicn nude ta Tap chi Khoa Hoc va Cung nghe bicn 4(i4) tr.29-41 13 Phan 'frpng Trjnh, 2010 (chii bicn) Nghien ciru boat dpng kicn tao tre, kien lao hien dai \ a dja dc)ng lue Bifin Ddng lam co sd khoa hpc cho viec du bao va phdng tranh lai bifin dia ehat Bao cdo tdng kfit de tai cap nba nirdc Chuong trinh (2006-2010) Ha Ndi 14 Quyfit dinh 264/2006/QD-'ITg 16/11/2006 eiia Thu ihucing chinh phii ban hanh "Quy chfi bdo lin ddng did v:\ canh bao sdng thin d Viet Nam" 15 Quyfit dinh 78/2007/QD-T'fg 29/5/2007 cua Thu tudng chinh phii ban hanh "Quy chfi phdng chdng ddng dat va sdng than" 16 Tran 'Ibi M> Thanh, 2lH)S < )M;- trinh cdng nghe danh gia dp nguy hicm song than vii eanh bao nguy co sdng thdn viing ven bicn Vict Nam Bao cao dfi tai KHCN cap Vifin Khoa hge va Cdng nghe Viet Nam Vien Val ly dia cau Ha Npi 17 Tran "fuan Dung va nnk., 2006, Kien lao dirt gay theo minh giai tai lieu trpng luc viing them Iuc dia ddng nam Vict Nam, 'fap cbi Khoa hpe va Cdng nghe bien, Vien Khoa hpc va Cdng nghe Viet Nam, T.2, tr 124-133 ... (chu ky 950 nam, nen loai A): a) Cue tinh ven bien Mien Bdc b) Cdc tmh ven bien Mien Trung vd Hoiing Sa: c) Cite tinh ven hien Mien Nam vd Trudng Sa ! ''^ Hinh Bdn do nguy hiem sdng thdn ven bien... thdn ven bien ty le 1:500.000 (chu ky 950 nam) : a) Cdc tinh ven bien Mien Bdc; b) Cdc tinh ven bien Mien Trung vd Hoiing Sa; c) Cdc tinh ven bien Midn Nam vd Truang Sa Mot so kien nghi ? Hoan... tren loan viing Bac Nam Bd dao done irong khoang lir 9.6% den 16 8% Gal Bang phircrng phap tinh loan \a danh gia xac sual ban dd dp nguy hifim sdng than vimg ven bifin \ lei Nam da dcrcre xdy dung