Nong van Kilm vd Dtg Tap chi KHOA HQC & CONG NGHE 88(12): 151 155 MOT SO K E T Q U A CtJA C O N G T A C DAN SO K E H O A C H H O A GIA DINH TINH B A C K A N TlT N A M 2005 D E N 2010 Nong Van Kilm'*, Le Minh Chinh^ Trudng DH Y Dugc - DH Thdi Nguyen TOM T A T Chpn toan bO cic s6 li^u va kit qua ciia cong tic DS-Kl IHGD cua tinh Bac Kan cac nam tii' 2005 den 2010 Nghien ciiu mo ta cat ngang kit hgp djnh lugng vdi djnh tinh thong qua dilu tra phong van va thao luan nhdm Chpn chu dich huyen thj dai dicMi la thj xa Bac Kan, huyen Pac Nam va Chp Mdi thyc hien vao thang 6/ 2011 Vdi vdi muc tieu nghien ciiu "Ddnh gia kit qud cua cdng ldc DS-KHHGD cua tinh Bdc Kgn cdc ndm lir2005 den 2010" Kit qua: Cong tac DS-KHHGD nhiing nam qua dat dupc ket qua tot, lam giam ty suat sinh tho tir 19,02%o (2005) .xudng 15.6»flo (2010) C6 huyen co ty suSt sinh tho cao la Pac Nam (18,l%o) va Na Rl (17.8%o) Ty sd^gidi tinh sinh la 117,7 (2010) d muc bao dpng, huyen Ngan San (131,8) va thj xa Bac Kan (130,2) co ty so cao nhat Nam 2010 tuoi thp trung binh la 68,7 tuoi d nam va 74,3 tuoi d nil, t\ le tre em dudi tuoi su\ dinh duang cao (25,4%) Tu khoa: Kit qud DS-KHHGD Bdc Kgn Pdc Nam DAT VAN DE Bac Kgn la tinh mien niii vimg cao, dugc tai lap tir thang nam 1997, cd don vi hanh chinh gdm thj xa va huyen vdi 122 xa, phudng thj tran Dja ban phan ldn la ddi niii hiem trd, giao thdng kem phat trien di lgi khd khan, kinh te cdn ngheo Trinh dan tri khdng ddng deu, nhin chung van cdn thap Cdng tac Dan sd - ke hoach boa gia dinh (DSKHHGD) ciia tinh nam qua da dgt dugc ket qua tdt, gdp phan quan trgng vao sy phat trien kinh te xa hdi ciia tinh Tuy nhien van cdn nhirng khd khan va thach thirc, can cd nbung danh gia, djnh hudng va tam nhin khai quat hon nira cdng tac chien lugc Bdi vay de tai da dugc thyc hien, vdi muc tieu "Ddnh gia ket qud cua cdng tdc DS-KHHGD cua tinh Bdc Kgn cdc ndm tir 2005 den 2010 " DOI TUONG NGHIEN CUU VA PHU'ONG Chi sd nghien ciru gdm cac ty le ve DSKHHGD: Ty le ve dan sd, cac ty suat sinh, gidi tinh, tudi thg, ty trgng dan sd, chi sd gia boa Cac chi tieu danh gia: Quy md dan sd cac nam (2005 2010), ty suat sinh thd cua toan tinh va cac huyen thj, tdng ty suat sinh (TFR), ty sd gidi tinh sinh, co cau dan sd theo tudi, tuoi thg trung binh Xii' ly sd lieu tren phan mem Epi Info 6.04v KET QUA VA B A N LUAN Quy mo dan so va cac ty suat lien quan Quy md ddn sd cdc ndm(2005 den 2010) PHAP Ddi tugng vd phuomg phdp: Chgn toan bg die so li^u va ket qua ciia cdng tac DSKHHGD cua tinh Bac Kgn cae nam tir 2005 din 2010 Nghien cim md ta cat ngang ket hop djnh lugng vdi djnh tinh bang dieu tra phdng van va thao luan nhdm Chgn chu dich huyen thj dgi dien la thj xa Bac Kgn, huyen Pac Nam va Chg Mdi, thyc hien vao thang 6/ 2011 Bilu d6 Ddn sd Bdc Kgn, qua cdc ndm tie 2005 din 2010 (Do'n vi tinh nghin ngudi) Quy md dan sd cua tinh Bac Kgn cd xu hudng tang dan giai dogn 2005 -2010 Tii' 288,4 nghin ngudi nam 2005 tang len 296,5 nghin ngudi nam 2010 Dan sd trung binh nam 2010 la 298.000 ngudi thap bon so vdi 151 88(12): 151 155 Tgp chi KHOA HQC & CONG NGHE Nong van Kiem i•() /)/,i,' muc lieu Chien lugc dan so Bac Kan (20012010) de la 315.000 ngudi Qua Bieu cho thiiy d;in so linh Bac Kgn cdn Ihap, la mgi nhiTng tinh cd dan sd thiip nlifil Irong c;i nude, luy nhien liem nfmg lang dan sd la khdng nhd iv sudt sinh thd (CBR) cim tinh Bdc Kgn, (21)05- 20101 .so sdnh vdi todn Qudc W-c le tang dan so ty nhien giam tii' 1,47% (2001) xuong cdn 1,03% (2010), ty le phat triln dan so binh quan bang nam 0,7% (1999 2009) Ihap ban ca nude (1,2%), Ty le sinh thir Ird len giam tir 4,52% (2001) xuong 4,3% (2010) Ty sual sinh thd ciia tinh Bac Kgn co xu hirdng giam dan qua cac nam tir nam 2005 dcMi 2010, dieu dd chung td cdng tac dan so ciia tinh nhirng nam qua la tdt va co bieu qua iy sudt sinh thd (C BR) cdc huyen thi, 2010 Bleu 7i' sudt sinh thd Bdc Kgn (2005 - 2010) %o ly suat sinh thd ciia linh Bac Kgn giam tir 19,02%o (2005) xuong l5,6%o (2010), binh quan mdi nam giam dugc 0,57%o, neu so \di chi tieu dgt bang nam la 0.4%o tbi da vugt 0,17%o Neu so \di toan qudc thi lir nam 2005 - 2007 ty suat cdn cao ban toan qudc cdn nam sau 2009, 2010 thi thap hon, tuang duong vdi tinh Lgng Son (16%o) va thap hon tinh Cao Bang (18,l%o) va Thai nguyen (16.8%o) [I] Sd trung binh ciia mdt phu nu' tudi sinh de nam 2009 la 1.84 thap hon so vdi muc tieu 2010 vdi 2.0 \;i cung thap hon mirc binh quan 2.03 cua ca nude, Bac Kgn cung la mdt 10 tinh cd mirc sinh thap nhat ca nude \a la dgi dien nhat ciia cac tinh mien Bac \a mien Trung Tv ( ac huyen thj ciia tinh gdm cd: Huyen Pac Nam (PN) Ba Be (BB) Ngan Son (NS) Bgch I hdng (BI), Na Ri (NR), Chg Don (CD) Chg Mdi (CM), Thj xa B k Kgn (TX) Mac dii ty suat sinh thd cua toan tinh thap so vdi loan qudc, nhung cd sy khac giti'a Ciic huyen ly sual sinh thd cao nhat la Pac Nam (1 8,1 %o) tiep theo la Na Ri (1 7,8%o) so lieu ca huyen deu cao ban mirc sinh cua tinh \a ciia loan qudc Thi xa Bac Kgn la dan \ i cd ty suat sinh thd thap nhat (13.8%o) Qua sd lieu tren cho thay tiem nang sinh ciia huyen Pac Nam \a \ a Ri cdn Idn Sd died sy chenh lech dd cd the ly giai la cdng tac DS-KHHGD o cac dja ban na\ hogt ddng cdn CO sy khac Mgt mat huyen Pac Nam \a Na Ri cd nhung khd khan \e mgi mat hon so xdi thi xa mat khac dan tri ciia huyen cung cdn thap ban nua huyen Bac Nam mdi lap cdng tac quan ly va thuc hien DS-KHHGD cdn nbilu bat cap bdi vay ket qua ciia cdng tac niw cdn ban cbl 20 iS 16 14,J2 1J.J9 14 lO To.-in Ihlh BB TX CIVI Bieu Ty sudt sinh thd cdc huyen thi ndm 2010 (%o) 15: Nong van Kiem va Dtg Tap chi KHOA HOC & CONG NGHE Ty sudt chit thd ciia tinh Bdc Kgn, (2005 2010) so sdnh vdi todn Qudc cimg ndm 88(12): 151 155 nam vSn cd xu huong tang, mat khac so phu nu tre budc vao tudi sinh de hang nam cao hon sd phu nir qua tuoi nay, dilu dd se tilm an nhfrng nguy co tang dan so trd Igi Co' cau dan so Bang Ty sd gidi tinh sinh d cdc huyencita tinh Bdc Kgn ndm 2010 — I (|uAr — B, K^n (Dan vi tinh: So be trai tren 100 be gdi) JiW Bieu Tv sudt chet thd cita tinh Bdc Kgn (2005-2010) %o Ty suat chet thd ciia tinh Bac Kgn giam dan nam dSu (2005 2008), din 2009 tang len nhung 2010 Igi giam So \di ca nirdc tbi mirc chet nam 2009 deu tang nbung tinh Bac Kgn cao hon (7.1%o) so vdi ca nude (6.8%o) Nhirng nam 2010 tinh Bac Kgn lgi cd ty suat chet thd (5,3%o) thap bon dang ke so vdi ca nud'c(6,8%o)[l] STT Ten cac huyen Pac Nam BaBe Ngan Son Bach Thong NaRi Thi xa Bac Kan Cha don Cha Mdi Ty so gioi tinh sinh 121,7 118,0 131,8 115,9 111,3 130,2 116,4 106,7 Trung hinh 117,7 todn tinh Ty sd gidi tinh sinh cua Bac Kgn la 102 (2009), gidi hgn binh thudng (103 108) va thap ban toan qudc (110,5) Tuy nhien nam 2010 ty sd gidi tinh sinh Bac Kgn la 117,7 dd huyen Ngan Son va thj xa Bac Kgn cd ty sd cao nhat, tuong duong vdi tinh Hung Yen (2009) [2] va cao ban ca ty sd cua mdt sd tinh dgi dien cho khu vyc ddng bang Bac bd nhu Bac Giang, Bac Ninh, Hai Duong va Thai Binh [3] Qua sd lieu chirng td Bac Kgn da cd sy mat can bang sinh va dang mat can bang d mii'c dang bao ddng Dd la van de dang ndi com, can cd sy chi dgo hogt ddng phdi hgp cua cac ban nganh, cac cap chinh quyen de giai quyet kjp thdi Tdng 0' sudt sinh (TFR) Bdc Kgn, (2005 2010) so vdi todn Qudc cimg ndm ^ieu dd 5^ Tdng t> suat sinh cua tinh Bac Kgn giam tii' 2,29 (2005) xuong cdn 1,85 (2010), ca nude chi giam tir 2,11 xuong 2,0 Tir nam 2005 din 2007 tong ty suat sinh cua tinh Bac Kgn cao ban ca nude nbung tir 2008 din 2010 tbi Bac Kgn Igi thap hon ca nude, va thap ban mirc sinh thay thi (2 con) Co the nhgn thay ket qua giam sinh ciia nhirng nam qua cua tinh Bac Kgn kha tot, nhung nhu bieu cho thay, dan so bang D T quoc • B Kan Nam 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Bilu d6 Tdng ty sudt sinh, (2005 - 2010), Dan vi tinh con/phii nu 153 Nong van Kiem vd Dig 88(12): 151 155 Tgp chi KHOA WQC & CONG NGHE Bang Cir cdu ddn sd ihco ludi so sdnh vdi todn qudc ciing ndm (Dan vi tinh %) ( h i so nghien ciru f\ trpng dan sd 0-14 tudi r> trpng dan sd 60 ludi trd len Dan sci tir 15 59 uioi Chi so giii h();i Ket qua Tdng dieu tra dan sd 1999, ccr cau dan sd linh M;ic Kgn theo ludi cd sy thay ddi tich CIIC, ty tigiig dan sd dudi 15 tudi giam lir 31,1% nam 1999 xudng cdii 24,5% (ca nirdc giam tir 33% xuong cdn 25%) va khoang 10 nam qua binh quan mdi nam ly Irgiig giam khoang 1,16% Ngugc Igi ty trgng dan sd ciia nhdm 15 59 tudi (la nhdm chii brc cua lyc lugng lao dgng) Igi tang lir 56.9% nam 1999 len 67,3% (ca nucic lang lir 58,9% nam 1999 IC-n 66%), khoang 10 nam qua binh quan mdi nam ty trgng lang khoang 1,04% Nhdm dan sd lir 60 tudi trd len tang tir 7% nam 1999 len 8,2% vao nam 2009 Do ty le ngudi gia tang len, ty le tre em dudi 15 tudi giam, nen "chi sd gia boa" ciia dan sd tinh Bac Kgn tang 14% sau 10 nam (tir 19,4% nam 1999 len 33,4%) Chi sd gia hoa cua Bac Kgn bien thap ban so vdi ca nude (ca nude 35,9%) Chat luong dan so Tudi thg trung hinh 2009 (Dan vi ndm tudi) so sdnh vdi todn Qudc cimg ndm So vdi ca nude tudi thg trung binh ciia ca nude thi tudi thg trung binh ciia Bac Kgn cdn thap Tudi thg trung binh chung ciia Bac Kgn la 71,5 ca nude (72,8), ddi vdi nam thi Bac Kgn la 68,7 cdn ca nude ia 70.2 ddi \di nu Bac Kgn la 74.3 Ihi ca nude la 75.6 Theo kel qua phdng van nghien ciru cimg \di thao luan nhdm va phdng van sau cbo thay cdn nhieu bat cap chain sdc sire khde ngudi gia Nhan dan ndi chung va ngudi cao tudi ndi rieng deu khdng cd thdi quen kham su'c khde djnh ky, ca cd benh cung chua mudn di kham benh ma chu y eu ty chua benh tgi nha Mat khac, ty le sii' dung rugu an udng hang rat cao, phd bien ngudi dan d mgi lua tudi Dd cd the la la nbung yeu td bat lgi cbo sue khde va tudi thg 154 Toan quoc 1999 2009 33,1 25,0 8,0 9,0 58,9 66 24,3 35,9 eac Kan* 1999 36,1 7,0 56,9 19,4 2009 25,4 8,2 67,3 33,4 Bieu Tudi thg trung binh cua tinh Bdc Kgn, so sdnh vdi todn Qudc ciing ndm Tv le tre em dudi tudi bi suy dinh dmmg, so sdnh vdi todn Qudc cimg ndm • T quZc Bieu Ty lc tre em dudi tudi bi suy dinh duang Nhu \ay, Ibdng qua cac kit qua \e ty le giam sinh, chi so phan anh \e tudi thg \a suy dinh dudng cua tre em dudi tuoi cbo tbSy chat lugng cdng tac DS-KHHGD ciia tinh Bac Kgn da dgt dugc nhijng tich dang ke, nhung vin cdn nbii'ng bat cap, ngoai sy hogt ddng ya kiem soat cua cdng tac DSKHHGD, cSn cd sy phdi bgp ciia cac ban nganh va sy thong nhat ciia Dang va Chinh quyen cac cap KET LUAN Cdng tac DS-KHHGD cua tinh B k Kan nbung nam qua dat dugc kit qua dang kl, lam giam ty suat sinh tho tir 19,02%o (2005), xudng 15,6%o (2010) Tuy nhien cd ... (C BR) cdc huyen thi, 2010 Bleu 7i' sudt sinh thd Bdc Kgn (2005 - 2010) %o ly suat sinh thd ciia linh Bac Kgn giam tir 19,02%o (2005) xuong l5,6%o (2010) , binh quan mdi nam giam dugc 0,57%o, neu... quyen de giai quyet kjp thdi Tdng 0' sudt sinh (TFR) Bdc Kgn, (2005 2010) so vdi todn Qudc cimg ndm ^ieu dd 5^ Tdng t> suat sinh cua tinh Bac Kgn giam tii' 2,29 (2005) xuong cdn 1,85 (2010) , ca... Kgn ndm 2010 — I (|uAr — B, K^n (Dan vi tinh: So be trai tren 100 be gdi) JiW Bieu Tv sudt chet thd cita tinh Bdc Kgn (2005- 2010) %o Ty suat chet thd ciia tinh Bac Kgn giam dan nam dSu (2005 2008),