Tap chi Kboa bpc Tnr&ng DQI hgc Cdn Tho Phdn A Khoa hoc Tu nhiin Cong ngh? vd Moi truong 28 (2013) 54 63 Tap chl Khoa hgc Tru''''dng €)ai hpc Can ThcJ website sj ctu edu vn HIEU CHINH DC LIEU MITA TlT MO[.]
Tap chi Kboa bpc Tnr&ng DQI hgc Cdn Tho Phdn A Khoa hoc Tu nhiin Cong ngh? vd Moi truong- 28 ( Tap chl Khoa hgc Tru'dng €)ai hpc Can ThcJ website: sj ctu edu HIEU CHINH DC LIEU MITA TlT MO HINH MO PHONG KHI H A U KHU Vl/C CHO VUNG D N G B A N G SONG CUtJ LONG Hong Minh Hoang' va Van Pham Dang Tri' ' Khoa Mdi trudng vd Tdi nguyen Thien nhien, Trudng Dgi hgc Cdn Tha Thong tin chung: Ngdy nhgn: 03/05/2013 Ngdy chdp nhgn: 29/10/2013 Title: Adjustment of dynamically downscaled rainfall data in the Mekong Delta Tdkhda: Mo hinh hdu (cdp todn cdu vd cdp viing), phuang phdp cat vd dieu chinh ddn, Keywords: (Global and regional) climate model, cutting-andadjusting-gradually approach, and rainfall ABSTRACT The Global Climate Model (GCM), a climate simulation model with large spatial resolution of 250 - 600 km^, is used to study the changes of the global climate The results from the GCM are limited lo apply for evaluating climate pattern changes in a smaller area but it is rather used to provide inputs for the Regional Climate Model (RCM) However, the simulated rainfall data from the RCM is still significantly different from actual measurements, especially when the RCM covered a large range of topography (i.e mountainous vs deltaic system) The modification of the simulated rainfall from the RCM in accordance with the observation is an important issue as it would support policy-making in relation to the socioeconomic development of certain areas To solve this problem, we apply the cutting-and-adjusting-gradually methods from the simulation data based on the relationship with the observations to adjust the simulated results (from the RCM) This approach reduces existing gaps of the simulation and historical measurements and is applied to predict the future pattern of rainfall changes in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam Mo hinh hdu todn cdu (GCM), mdt md hinh mo phdng hdu vdi phdn gidi khong gian rgng ldn tir 250 den 600 km^ dugc su dung de nghien cuu su thay ddi cua hdu tgdn cdu Mdc dit kit qud tu md hinh hdu todn cdu cdn han chi viic sir d^ing de ddnh gid nhitng thay ddi kbi hdu mdt khu vuc nho (hon) nhung nhitng ket qud ndy duac su dung de xdc dinh gid tri ddu vdo cho cdc mo hinh hdu khu vuc (RCM) Tuy nhien, dir lieu mua md phdng tu RCM vdn cdn sai lich ddng ki so vdi thuc te ddc biet la RCM duac img dung de md phdng mdt phgm vi rgng ldn cita dia hinh (vi d\i: mien nui vd he thdng ddng bdng) Viec hieu chinh lugng mua md phdng tit RCM phit hgp vdi sd lieu thuc Id mgt vdn de quan trgng nhdm hg trg cho cong tdc xdy dung cdc chinh sdch lien quan din phdt trien kinh te - xd hgi ciia khu vuc De gidi quyit vdn de ndy, chung tdi dp dung phuong phdp cat vd diiu chinh ddn tit sd liiu mo phdng dua trin cdc mdi quan he voi so lieu quan sdt de dieu chinh kit qud mo phdng Phuang phdp ndy ldm gidm sai sd giiia sd lieu md phdng vd thirc qud khu vd duoc dp dung de dir dodn thay ddi luang mua tuong lai a ddng bdng sdng Cim Long Viet Nam Tgp chi Khoa hoc Tnr&ng Dai bgc Can Tho Phdn A: Khoa hpc Tu nhien Cong ngh? vd Mdi truong I GIOI THIEU Mfi hinh hdu toin ciu (Global Climate Model - GCM) Id mfi hinh mfi phdng va dy bao hiu dygc tfayc failn bang each kit hgp cac nguyen ly vat ly, hoa hpc, va sinh hpc vio frong mdt mfi hinh loin nhim md phdng va du doin hiu d cap loin cdu (Phan Vdn Tan el al 2008) Hiln nay, CO nhilu logi mfi hinh hau toin cau co thi dugc sii dung de du doan biln ddi hau tuang lai bang each sOr dyng cac kich bdn phit thai khac Mac dii kit qui md phong cdc mfi hinfa GCM khfing du cfai till (dp pfaan giai kfafing gian 250-600 km) vd chinh xac (d tiing khu vyc riing 11) dl md phong hgu cfao viing khfing gian hep (trong phgm vi vdi chyc km) nhung kit qua cua cac GCM cd tfal dugc sii dung lam ddu vao cfao cic md hinh hgu tdiu vyc (Regional Climate Model - RCM) (Hashmi et al, 2009) Vdi chiic nang thu hep khdng gian md pfadng hau, mfi hinh RCM don gian chi la mdt qui frinh chuyen ddi dp phan gidi khfing gian ciia GCM dp phin giii kfafing gian voi dp phin giai eao hon bdng each su dyng cac gii tri diu ciia GCM (Maraune/a/., 2010) Trong nhimg ndm gdn day dilu ki|n thoi tilt dang cd xu hudng dien bien ngdy cdng phiic tgp vai sir xuat hien cang nhieu ciia cac dieu kien thcri tiet circ doan (Van et al., 2012) Vile thilu cic thfing tin dy bdo mfi hinh hgu ddi han frong tuong lai ciing nfau tinh khfing chic chin ciia nhirng du bdo ndy li mpt frong nhimg trd nggi dang kl ddi vdi cfing tac hoach dinh kl hogch phit trien kinh tl - xi hfii ciia dja phuang, viing vi ca d pham vi qufic gia (Phan Van Tin va cfv 2008) Hi|n frln thi gidi da cd kha nhilu ngfailn cim vl vi|c thu hep khfing gian mfi phdng tir mfi hinh hiu toan cau, vi du nhu: (i) Skaugen et (2003) sii dyng lugng mua d Na Uy tir mfi hinh ERA-15 vd gid tri mua quan sat binh qudn hdng thdng (ttong giai doan 1979-1993) de xiy dyng phuang phip failu chinh mua mfi (ii) Liang et al (2004) da khao sit nang mfi phdng lugng mua liln tyc ni 1982-2002 frln lanh thd Hoa Kv bang mfi hinh MM5 philn ban hdu (CMM5): (iii) Schmidli et al (2006) dimg phuong phap dpng lyc hpc va phucmg phdp thfing kl di hieu chinfa lugng mua cfao kfau vuc tii md huih hdu todn ciu (GCM); (iv) Skaugen (2007) dimg phuong phip ticfa iii\ thdng ke failu cfamfa dii lieu mua trung binfa cho miia va tfaing tir md hinfa (ERA - 15) cho vijng d Na Uy; (v) Wang et al (2010) da phit friin mpt k\ thudt linh todn moi (thudt lodn PMFred) dl phat hiln va hieu chinh sy thay dfii chufii sfi lieu mua hdng ngdy: (vi) Phan Van Tdn vd ctv (2008) di ngfaien ciiu kha nang ung dyng cua md fainh RegCM vdo dy doan miia frln bi mil lanfa thfi Viet Nam, bdng viec nghiin ciiu tfaii nghiem md phdng khifaaukhu vyc Viet Nam vi Dfing Nam A de tim dieu kien cin va dii dl dp dung vao viec du bdo Tu}- nfailn, vile sir dung cac mfifainhRCM vao dy bdo hiu tuang lai vdn cdn han che va cfai d mtic dp tfaii nghiim, cdc cfing trinh nghiin ciiu hien chu yeu tap tmng vdo khao sit dp nfagy, ddc bilt la dp nhgy cua cic sa dd tfaam sfi dfii luu, nhim dinh gii kha ndng md phdng ciia cdc RCM (Phan Vin Tdn, 2010) E>o su dung ddu vio tii cdc GCM lam dilu kiln bien de thu hep khfing gian md phdng nen cac RCM vin cdn nhilu sai sd vi chua dim bio ning phin infa chinfa xic diln biln hdu cfao cdc kfau vyc nfafifacm(Maraun et al, 2010; Phan Vdn Tdn, 2010) Trong bai bdo ndy phuong pfaip edt so Ulu va dilu chinh dimg din tir sd lieu diu eiia md hinh md phdng hgu PRECIS dugc chiing tdi thyc hien (bang each (i) cit bd cic ngiy mira mo phdng vd (ii) dieu chinh gid fri mfi phong ciia mua trung binh ndm) nhim dilu chinfa lugng mua md pfadng ve gdn vdi lugng raua dac tfaue tl Pfauong phip hieu chinh sau dugc kiem dinh se dupe dp dung dl hieu chinh lugng mira dugc md phdng frong tuong lai nham dy bao tfing quan vl sy bien dpng cua mua dudi tic dpng ciia bien dfii hgu PHLTOfNG PHAP NGHIEN ClTU 2.1 Tfau thgp sd lieu Sfi lilu quan sdt tfayc ll lgi cic ttgm quan trie mua d cdc tinh thudc khu vyc dong bdng sdng Ciiu Long (DBSCL) dugc tdng hgp tir lugng mua 172 tram thdi tilt tgi Viet Nam philn ban 1.0 (Thomas et ai, 2010) Ngodi cdc so ti|u md pfadng dugc xudt tir md hinfa PRECIS tgi cic tga dp lyong irng vdi cac tram quan trie thyc te va dugc cung cdp boi trung tam SEA START (http://www.start.or.lli/) vdi 2.225 d tudi bao phu Tap chi Khoa hgc Tnr&ng Dgi hpc Can Tho Phdn A: Khoa hgc Tif nhien Cong nghe vd Moi tnr&ng: 28 (2013): 54-63 t o i n bd khu vyc D B S C L , dp phdn giai 0.2 x 0.2" (mdi d ludi khoang 20 x 20 km) 2.2 Phan tieh so lieu Chgn sd liiu hieu chinh Pfauong phip failu chinh sd lieu mua tir mfi hinh mfi phfing dupe su dyng frong bii bio la phuong phip chung nin cd thi dp dung hieu chinfa cho nJiilu trgm khdc d DBSCL Do vay, sd li?u dimg cho qua trinh tinh todn hieu chinh dugc chpn ngau nhien tai frgm quan frde Can Tha thdi gian tii nam 1980-2003 vd sd lieu mfi phdng tuong img tai vT dp va kinh dp diim 10 x 105.8 Trong thyc te, lugng mira biln dpng qua timg ndm khic nhau; vay, cin chpn mot khoang thdi gian ddi dl the hiln sy bien dfing ciia lugng mua qua cdc nim diy, chia giai dogn raua (1980-2003) lam giai dogn, giai doan hieu cfainh (1980-1987) vi giai dogn kiem dinh (1988-1995; 1996-2003) Sfi nam ciia sfi lieu thyc ghi nhdn (365 ngdy/nim) chinh lech vdi sfi ciia sfi lieu mfi phfing (360 ngay/nam) Vi vgy, chpn 360 ngdy/ndm ciia sfi lilu thyc tuong iing vdi sd li|u mo pfadng qua frinh tinh loan; cic gii tri thyc dupe loai bd tinh lir ngdy thii 361 nim- Mdi giai dogn nam la khodng thoi gian dii ddi dl thi hi|n sy bien dpng cua lugng mua (Sfrauch et al, 2012) vi vi|c chpn giai dogn kilm dinfa nhdm myc dich ddnfa gia tinh hi|u qui ciia phuang phap dugc dp dung dl tdi phdng ve gan ydi sd ngiy mua thyc Sd ngiy mua can phdi cit dugc xac djnh dya vao cdng thirc (1) va viec edt sfi lieu dugc tien hdnh tiieo cdng thiic (2) Chudi sd lieu mfi phdng dugc cap nhat lai sau kfai da cat cac ngiy mua gid tri cua cac ngiy mua bj cat dugc dua vl gii tri Qua tiinh cit dugc lap lai din sfi mua can phii cat khfing ddi (Xncsi - Xi^i, = 0; n: Sd lin cit) vi chpn sfi lin cit tai gid tti Xicjt (Bang 1) Vi|c edt sfi lieu dya vdo cfing thiic (2) se ldm sd ngdy duge cat phdn bfi deu frong chudi sfi lieu vd khfing ldm thay dfii vi tri, thii ty cOa cac ngiy mua frong chudi dii lieu Sfi ngiy mua cin phii edt: Xcai = Ms - Ob (1) Ngay bi cit: Y = - ^ (Y > 0, Y G Z) (2) Trong dfi: Xcai: Sfi mua can phdi edt M^: Tfing sd ngiy mua giai doan mfi phdng (8 nam) Obi Tdng so ngiy mua giai doan thuc (8 ndm) Y: Ngiy bi cat T: Tfing sd ciia chuoi thcri gian (8 ndm) Bang 1: Qui trinh cat chuoi dir lilu mua mfi phong vl tuong ung vol thyx: L a n cat IGiu nhiiu so liiu Sd lieu mua quan sat tii' cac trgm quan trie dygc gii trj mua nhd nhat la 0.1 mm, dd, sfi lieu mua tir md hinh mfi phdng cd gid fri nhd ban 0.1 mm Do viy, vile khir nhilu sfi lieu tmdc tinh todn cdc budc kl tiep bang each loai bd cic sd li|u mua md phdng c6 gii fri nhd hon 0.1 mm la can thilt Kiem tra vd cat so ngdy mua md phong ve gdn lucmg mua thuc So sdnh sfi ngdy mua mo phdng va mua thyc do, cho thdy la sd mua md phdng Idn hon nhiiu so vdi thyc do; vdy, vile cat sfi md phdng co mua can duac thyc hi|n nhdm dua sfi ngdy mua mfi phdng vl gdn vdi thyc Chufii so lieu dugc xip theo thir tu tir thii nfait cua nim bit diu din ngiy cudi ciing ciia nam ket thuc (giai dogn nam) giiia sd lilu md phdng vi thyc Do mgt lin cit (so ngiy mua) dd khdng cat hit sfi mua md phdng vi thuc nin qui frinh cat dugc lip lai nhiiu lin nham dam bdo sfi mua mfi Xcit Y X X X [cat Yl 3cilt Yl Yj i Q X X icai Y, Y * Chi chu Cat ldn M< duac thay bdng M^i (ldn cat thu I), cat ldn A/j duac ihay bdng Ms? (ldn cat ihu 2) Trong chuoi sd lieu cdc ngdy thir Yi 2Yi 3Yi se bi cdi bo din he! chuoi sd lieu (8 ndm) Irong moi ldn cat 2.3 Dieu chinh l u g n g m u a Lugng mua tir md hinh mfi phfing cdn chenh lich ddng kl so vdi tugng mua quan sal; vdy, cdn phai dilu cfainfa lugng mua mfi phdng ve tuang ling vdi thyc Qua frinh dilu cfainh dugc thuc hiln theo cfing thiic (3), bdng cich tinh trung binh nhiiu ldn giiia lugng mua trung binh ciia mpt giai doan mfi phfing va thyc den sai sfi giiia lugng mua frung binh ciia giai doan thyc vd md phfing nhd hon 0.05 •>n = ""^'fn"^"^" (" '^ so lin diiu chinh, n > 0) (3) Chon gia tti n Do - D„ < 0.05 Trong do: Dn: Gia trj tmng binh ciia giai doan diiu chinh Phdn Kboa hpc Tu nhien Cong nghe vd Mdi truong: 28 (2013): 54-63 Tap chi Khoa hgc Tnrang Dai hpc Can Tho Dm: Gia gid fri ttung bmh cua giai dogn mfi phdng da cat Do: Gia fri trung binh ciia giai doan quan sit va so quan sat co mua Ti sfi giiia sfi ngiy mfi pfadng cd mua va so quan sat cd mua biln dgng kfadng ldn qua cdc giai doan khic nhau, sfi ngiy mfi phdng ed mua luon lon han so ngdy quan sit cd mua (x > 1) (Bang 2) 2.4 Kiim dinh Trong giai dogn kiim dinh, sfi lieu mfi phdng ciia giai doan hi?u chinh dugc thay bang sd lieu mfi phfing ciia giai doan kiim dinh cfing thiic (3) gii fri Do dupe thay bdng gid tti D„ vd gid tri Dn dugc sii dyng cho cic giai dogn kiim dinh va cho hieu chinh sfi Heu mfi phdng tuong lai Sir dung kit qui sfi ngdy bj edt (Y) d cong thiic (2) vd gia tti so ldn diiu chinh (n) d cdng thuc (3) cua giai dogn diiu chinh de hieu chinh cho cdc giai doan kilm dinh vi cho tuang tai Kit qua sau tchi hieu chinh dugc so sinh vdi kit qua thyc thfing qua cdc thdng sfi nhu: tmng binh, dp tech chuin, gia tri max, min, tfing lugng mua va tdn sudt xuat hien mua Bang 2: Ti so gi&a so ngdy mo pfaong cd mu^ va s6 quan sit co mtra Giai doaa 1980-1987 X 1.39 1988-1995 1996-2003 1.38 1.23 Cat sd lieu mua Sfi ngiy mua bi edt (Xiai) giim ddn qua cic lan cit nhung d ldn cat thu 10, sfi ngiy cat khfing ddi (10 ngay) so vdi lin cat thii (10 ngay) vi tfing so mua bi edt li 471 Do dd chpn kit qua la edt ldn va ngiy bi cSt (Y) qua cac ldn edt lan lugt Id bfii sd ciia: 16, 26 38, 53,93, 125,206 va 288 ngdy (Bang 3) KET QUA VA THAO LU^N 3.1 Phan ticb xir ly so lieu Kiim tra ti sd giiia so ngdy md phdng cd mua Bang 3: So lan c^f sd lieu mira md phong giai do^n (1980 - 1987) 10 10 14 10 31 23 54 288 288 125 206 93 53 lieu thyc (Bdng 4) Ngoii cac gid ttj trin, 3.2 Dilu chinh lugng mua phuong pfadp dilu chinh tdn suat mua ciia Phuang phip hiiu chinh da dilu chinh lugng sd lieu mua mfi phfing vl gdn vol sd lilu thyc mua tir mfi hinh md phdng tuong img vdi thyc (Bing 5) vd dilu cfainh dudng xu hudng sfi lieu (n = 6, Do - Dn = 0.04 < 0.05) Phuang phip hieu giiia mfi phdng va thyc gdn vdi dudng chuan chinh di dieu chinh cac gii frj sfi lilu mfi phdng (Hinh 2) Phuang phip hieu chinh da cho kit qua nhu: trung binh, dp tich chuin, lugng mua lon sfi lieu diu tuong dfli gan voi sd lieu quan sat nhit, tdng lugng mua ve tuong iing vdi gii tri sfi (Hinh (a) va (b) va Hinh (a) vi (b)) Bang 4: Ket qua hieu chinh so lilu mira trung binfa 10 giai dogn (1980 -1987) Lan cit X,ii Y DV: mm Thu-cDo M6_Ph6ng Hieu Chinh 481 185 16 Tong Ngav 2880 2880 2880 111 26 Trung binh 46.2 31.3 45.8 76 38 So lech chuan 51.3 30.9 50.7 Min 0.0 0.0 0.0 Max 204.8 120.8 202.2 TSng 13302 9024 13203 Bang 5: Tan suat mira (ngay) giai doan (1980 -1987) DV: ngav Thirc Bo M6_Ph6ng Hifu Chinh - 0.5 mm 1842 1449 1825 0.51 - mm 625 1156 643 10.1-50 mm 374 275 377 50.1 100 mm 36 32 >100 mm 3 Tap chf Khia hoc Tnrang Dai hoc Cdn Tha - :^ii "Time Do Phan 4: Kboa hoc T\r nhien Cong ngh? vd Moi h-u&ng: 28 (2013) 54-6S "Mli Plioiit i \ (a) -= 2?" •Tlnic_Do 150 150 Z 100 oS^ ^ •Hieu_niuUi (b) ^ ,^^ *': ^>^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ A Nam N ijiiiyi iS> ^ N N o:\ c> N V N N S ^.„„ Hinh 1: (a) Gi^ trj thuc ao vi mo phong, (b) Gia tri thuc va hi£u chinh giai doan (1980 - 1987) - :5o V = N V = X , (b) r^ ^ - 99x S :oo a 15ci ji 100 f 50 „ l ^ ; ' V 50 • •••^: '• 100 i?o :oo Thuc DolOn£nv(inm) Hinfa 2: (a) Gia tri thuc vd mo pfadng, (b) Gii 3.3 Kilm dinfa 3.3.1 Giai dogn (1988-1995) Kit qua sau kfai hieu chinh cho thdy gia trj tmng binh dp lech chuan ldn han gid tti quan sat \e tmng binh va tfing lupng mua so vdi ket qua thyc do; nfaien, phuong phdp hieu chinh di cho kit qud tit hon so vdi kit qua md phdng (Bang 6) ^0 100 150 200 TluicDo 10 (mm) 250 | tri thuc va hieu chinh giai doan (1980 - 1987) qua qud ttinh hieu chinfa, sfi ngdy mua da dugc dua vl gin voi mua thyc d cap dp ndy (Bang 7) Phuong phap hieu chinh da dilu chinh lgi cac gii tri nhu: tmng binh, dp lech chuan, lugng mua ton nhat, tdng lugng raua vd tdn suit mua tir sd lieu mua rad phong ve gan vdi sd lieu mua thyc Ben cgnh dfi, phuang phap hi|u chinh cdn dilu chinh duong xu hudng sfi lieu ciia mfi phdng so vdi sd lieu thuc gin vdi dudng chuan (y = x) (Hinh (a) vi (b), Hinh 4(a) vi (b)) Tin suit mua md phdng d cap tir 50-1-100 mm va cap > 100 mm chi xuat hiln ngay; vay Bang 6: Kit qua fai^u cfainh s6 lif u mua trung binh 10 giai do?n (1988 - 1995) Max f>9 lech chuan Min Tong Ngiy Trung binh BV: mm 46.9 0.0 217.9 41.1 2880 Thirc_Do 36.9 0.0 345.8 31.3 2880 M6_Ph6ng 50.1 0.0 199.8 45.5 2880 Hieu Chinh Tong 11830 9014 13099 Plidn A Klioa hoc Ta nhiin Cong nghe vd Mdi trudng: 28120III: 54-63 Tap chi Khoa hoc Tnrdng Dcii hoc Cdn Tha • Time D o " M o Phong • Tlmc_Do (a) •HieH_Cliiiili ^b) =1 2.50 - 200 S 150 I'.;! = I :oo ~ iiiiii 150 I 100 a 50 i? V \" ,c-' s- \-cr \* >? \" cr s- \^ y ^r c N \ \ \ \ \N SN \\ iiiiiii c^ V*- \ N -T' N'"- \ N^- \ j^ N^- \ i'- S?- N i- JJ V?' V iV S=>- N'- \ \ N;Mn Nara| H i n h : (a) Gia trj thirc va mo phong, (b) Gia trj thirc d o v a hieu chinh giai d o a n (1988 - 9 ) (a) 400 (b) •: 0 - -s.\ tr Tliitc Bo ] ugay (min) ";i _ !00 :00 300 Tbi.icOo lOitsay(n)ni) 400 Hinh 4: (a) Gid tri thuc va mo phdng, (b) Gia trj th^c va hieu cfainfa giai doan (1988 -1995) Bang 7: Tan suat mira (ngay) giai doan (1988 - 1995) BV: ngiy - 0.5 mm Thirc_Bo 1864 M6_Ph6ng 1524 Hi|u_Chinh 1810 3.3.2 Giai doan (1996 - 2003) 0.51 -10 mm 627 1106 666 Tuang ty giai dogn kiim dinfa (1988-1995), phuong phdp hieu chinh da dieu chinh cic gid frj ciia sfi lieu mfi phfing giai dogn (1996-2003) nhu: ttung binh, dfi lech chuan, lugng mua ldn nhit vd tdng lugng mya vl gan vdi gid tri thyc (Bang 8) Tdn suat mua md phdng d cip dp tir 50.1-00 mm va cdp dp > 100 mm khdng xudt hiln 10.1-50 mm 50.1 - 100 mm >100 mm 363 23 248 1 369 33 vi sd tin suat mua d cip dp tir 0-0.5 mm, 0.51-10 mm vd 10.1-50 mm chinh lich lon so vdi thyc (Bang 9) Nfamig qua qud trinh hieu chinh di xuat hien mua va tin suat xudt hiln mua ciia thyc va hiiu chinh tuong duong d cdp dp niy (Bdng 8) Phuong phip failu chinh cdn dilu chinh dudng xu hudng ciia sd lieu md phdng so voi sfi !i|u thuc vi gin vdi dudng cfaudn (y = x) (Hinh (a) va (b), Hinh (a) vd (b)) Bang 8: Ket qua fai|u chinh so lieu mira trung binfa 10 ngiy giai doan (1996 - 2003 BV:mm Tong Ngiv Trung binh Bo lech chuan Min Thirc_Do 2880 49.3 55.2 0.0 Mo_Ph6ng 2880 27.2 30.0 0.0 Hieu Chinh 2880 45.4 50.1 0.0 Mas Tong 126.3 45.9 199.6 14211 7842 13085 Phdn 4- Khoa hoc Tir nbien Cong ngb^ va Moi tnrang 28 (2013) 54-63 Tup chi Khoa hoc Tnr&ng Dai hgc Cdn Tha (a) = (b) "" - 200 \ \>ti S 150 \ 100 " 100 : likliiilkl I: llillyil ^-' ^cj>"' ^c !)o100mm 280 369 33 246 0 372 33 246 0 369 33 225 0 371 33 B.W 2009 Statistical downscaling of precipitation: state-of-the-art and application of bayesian multi-model approach for uncertainty assessment Hydrot Earth Syst Sci Discuss., 6(5): 6535-6579 Liang, X.-Z., Li, L., Kunket, K.E., Ting M and Wang J.X.L., 2004 Regional Climate Model Simulation of U.S Precipitation during 1982-2002 Part I: Annual Cycle Joumal of Climate, 17(18): 3510-3529 Maraun, D., Wetterhall, F., Ireson, A.M., Chandler, R E., Kendon, E.J., Widmann, M., Brienen S Rust, H.W., Sauter, T Themefil, M., Venema, V.K.C., Chun K.P., Goodess, CM Jones, R.G., Onof, C, Vrac, M and Thiete-Eich, I., 2010 Precipitation downscaling under climate change: Recent developments to bridge the gap between dynamical models and the end user Revievi's of Geophysics, 48(3): RG3003 Phan Vin Tan, 2010 Nghiin cim tic dpng ciia bien dfii hau toan cau den cac ylu tfi vi hien tugng hgu cyc doan d Viet Nam, Dai hpc Qufic gia Ha Nfii Phan Vail Tan, Tran Quang Due, Hfi Thi Minh Ha Vu Thanh Hing, Biii Hoing Hai, Luong Mgnh Thing Le Nhu Quan Ta Hun Chinh vd Du Due Tien, 2008, Nghien ciiu irng dyng mfi hinh hiu khu vuc rafi phong/du bao miia cic truong hau be mat phuc vy quy hoach phat triln va phdng tranh thien tai, Dai hoc Qufic gia Ha Nfii Sclmiidli, J., Frei, C and Vidale, P.L., 2006 Downscaling from GCM precipitation: a benchmark for dynamical and statistical downscaling methods Intemational Journal of Climatology, 26(5): 679-689 Skaugen, T.E Hanssen-Bauer and Forland, E.J., 2003 Adjustment of dynamically Tap chi Kboa hgc Tnrang DQI hgc Cdn Tho Phdn A: Khoa hoc Tir nhien Cong ngh? vd Mdi truong: 28 (2013): 54-63 downscaled temperature and precipitation data in Norway, Norwegian meteorological instutute, Box 43 Blindem N - 0313 Oslo, Norway Slrauch, M., Bemhofer, C, Koide, S., Volk, M., Lorz, C and Makeschin, F., 2012 Using precipitation data ensemble for uncertainty analysis in SWAT streamflow simulation Joumal of Hydrology, 414-415: 413-424 Thomas, T., Christiaensen, L., Do, Q and Trung, L., 2010 Natural Disasters and Household Welfare: Evidence from Vietnam, World Bank 10 Van, P.D.T., Popescu, I., van-Griensven, A., Solomatine, D., Tnmg, N.H and Green, A., 2012 A study of tfae climate change impacts on fluvial flood propagation in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta Hydrol Earth Syst Sci Discuss., 9: 7227 - 7270 11 Wang, X.L., Chen, H., Wu, Y., Feng, Y and Pu, Q 2010 New Techniques for the Detection and Adjustment of Shifts m Daily Precipitation Data Series Journal of Appfaed Meteorology and Climatology, 49(12): 2416-2436 ... dimg phuong phip ticfa iii\ thdng ke failu cfamfa dii lieu mua trung binfa cho miia va tfaing tir md hinfa (ERA - 15) cho vijng d Na Uy; (v) Wang et al (2010) da phit friin mpt k\ thudt linh todn... thgp sd lieu Sfi lilu quan sdt tfayc ll lgi cic ttgm quan trie mua d cdc tinh thudc khu vyc dong bdng sdng Ciiu Long (DBSCL) dugc tdng hgp tir lugng mua 172 tram thdi tilt tgi Viet Nam philn ban... dyng frong bii bio la phuong phip chung nin cd thi dp dung hieu chinfa cho nJiilu trgm khdc d DBSCL Do vay, sd li?u dimg cho qua trinh tinh todn hieu chinh dugc chpn ngau nhien tai frgm quan frde