Dir BAD NHU cAu Ddl NGU GlAO VIEN TRUNG HDC PHO THDNG CAC TJNH DONG B A N G SONG CUU LONG O TS P H A M MINH G I A N NGUYEN CHI G6V D l/ bdo (DB) duqc hllu Id nhOng kiln gldl cd cfin eu khoo hqc v l cd[.]
Dir BAD NHU cAu Ddl NGU GlAO VIEN TRUNG HDC PHO THDNG CAC TJNH DONG B A N G SONG CUU LONG O D l/ bdo (DB) duqc hllu Id nhOng kiln gldl cd cfin eu khoo hqc v l cdc trqng thdi khd dT Clio d^l hrqng DB hremg lol, v l cde dudng khde nhou, thdi hqn khdc d l dqt hSi cde trqng thdi tuong lol dd Di/ bdo gido di/c (DBGD) Id xdc djnh h-qng thdi tuong lol cua hf thdng gido dye vdl m f I xdc sud't ndo dd DB nhu cdu gido vidn (GV) Id mft b f phfn quan trqng Clio bdl ksdn DBGD Nhijng hifn tuqng thCra, thilu, l^dng ddng b f GV s3 duqc hqn e h l nlu ede edp qudn If DB tucmg ddl chfnh xdc nhu edu v l sd luqng d f i ngii, loql hlnh GV bq mdn vd k l hoqch ddp ung cua cdc trudng dqi hqc Trong nhllu nfim qua, ddng bdng sdng Ci>u Long (DBSCL) thieu quy hoqch td'ng t h l eho vifc ddo tqo, bdi dudng d f i ngO gido vidn (DNGV) trung hqe phd thdng (THPT) dan d i n Hnh trqng D N G V vija thua, vua thilu, vuo y i u , vuo khong ddng bq v l co cd'u Do dd, cdn cd nghidn edu DB trdn cde phuong d i f n : ddo Iqo, bdl dudng, su dyng; so luqng, chd't luqng vd co cd'u DNGV TS P H A M M I N H G I A N - N G U Y E N C H I G6V ed nude dd bdt ddu gldm nhung tf If HS phi thdng nhf p hqe vSn tdng ldn khdng ngung Tfnh din ndm 0 , edp tllu hqc (TH) dqt 98% (so vdl 96% nfim 2004), cd'p hnjng hqc co sd (THCS): 90% (so vdl d5% nfim 2003), cdp THPT: 50% (so vdi 38% nfim 2000) (2) Theo Quylt d|nh 20/200d/QD-TTg ngdy / / 0 d cOo Tho tudng Chfnh phu, ehl tidu cy thl v l phdl trlln GD-DT vd dqy nghl cOo DBSCL din nfim ddl vdl gido dye THCS vd THPT Id: « Tdt ed cdc Hnh vd thdnh phi thudc DBSCL dgl chudn phd cdp THCS; ndng H1$ THCS dl hgc ^ng d0 tudt ldn to 87-90%; H1$ HS d^ tudi vao THPT dgt 50% trd len'[3) Theo phuong hudng phdt trlln GD-DT vd dgy nghl vung DBSCL glol doqn 2011-2020 (4), DBSCL pha'n dfi'u din nfim 2015 cdc cht sive GD-DT vd dqy nghl dqt mue binh qudn chung cua cd nude; tlln ldi bdt kjp mqt sdvung, khu vyc cd trinh dq phdt W i n cao vdo nfim 2020 Cy the, D l DB q u y m d D N G V THPT ede tinh DBSCL gido dye phd thdng, nfim 2015: K If HS df edn DB duge ddn sd', quy md gla tdng hgc sinh tudl den h'udng dqt 99% d TH, 85% d THCS vd (HS) THPT Ddy Id cfin eu quon trqng d l phdt 55% d THPT Nfim 2020: huy dfng HS Irong df h'lin quy md D N G V THPT cdc tinh DBSCL Ngodl ludl TH d i n Idp trdn 99%, THCS 90% vd THFT ra, phdl cfin cu vdo cdc thdng sfi': djnh muc sd dO% Trvdng dqt chudn qudc gla T H 40%, THCS HS/ldp; djnh mijc sd' G V / l d p , co cdu mdn hqe, 25% vd THPT Id 15% Chiln luqc phdt h-len gido loql htnh, ydu cdu ndng eoo cuo ti>ng gial dye 2011 -2020: din nfim 2020, «80% thonh niin doqn, tf If G V gldm nghl huu, chuyin cdng Vift Nam h-ong d f tudi dqt Wnh dq hqc vdn THPT tdc, sue khde, tinh gldn bidn e h l Thdng tu vd tuong duang" lidn tjeh sd 35/200d/TTLT-BGD-DT-BNV ngdy DB sd luqng HS THPT DBSCL ude Knh / / 0 d cua Bq GD-DT vd Bf Nql vy quy theo H If huy d f n g dd tudi HS THPT djnh mue bidn e h l vlen ehue d cdc eo sd gido Cfin cu vdo kit qud dieu tra ddn sd ndm dye phd* thdng edng ldp Id tdl da khdng qud 0 , tdng ddn sd cuo cdc ttnh DBSCL Id 45 HS/ldp; mol Idp duqc bd trf bidn e h l khdng 17.178.871 ngudi, dd, cd cde nhdm lull qud , G V { ) cy t h l (xem bdng 1) DB stf luvjmg HS THPT du^c d l cdc djnh hu6ng phdt Min gIdo dye Trong nhihig nfim gdn ddy, i6 HS phd thdng 'TnMiclfibfcMulUp Tap chifilaoiluc so gu a • n/aoiji Bdng I Ddn so//leo ca cd'u nhdm (uo/ cdc llnh DSSCL HMm ludi 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 Tflnasfilnoirt'll 278.599 1.098.206 1.410 592 1.396.054 966.413 651.269 (Nguon: Nlin gldm ihd'ng ki 2009) Di^a trdn ket qua di^u tra dan so, dong thol thong quo Nghj quyet dql h§i D6ng c6c c6'p, mSl finh dua H 1^ huy d6ng HS THPT ii) tuoi khac Cy the, fi 1^ huy d^ng ciJa D6ng Thap la 5 * nfim (nflm 2010 la 46%), Hau Glang Id 67% (nam 2015), 70% (2020); Tlin Glang Id 55% nam (nam 2010 la 50%|; VTnh Long: 70% (30% c6n I9I hpc nghl) (nam 2015); Tra Vinh: % (nam 2015); C6 Mau: 61,14% (nam 2015), 73,38% (ndm 2020) Can Cl> vdo thi/c te vl$c huy dong HS da tuS'l THPT cua cdc tinh DBSCL Irong thol glan qua cGng nhu can cu vdo kg' hoqch DB cuo cdc finh; chung t6i nhan tha'y, fi l§ huy dqng HS THPT cua cdc finh DBSCL c6 kha nang phO hqp d^n nam Id tO 55% dl'n 60% vd ndm 2 Id tu % dS'n 65% N h u vqy, s6' HS THPT cOo cdc finh DBSCL thdi glon tol khd ndng tuong ung se Id: ti> dS'n 9 (nam 2015) vd to 507.811 d^n 5 (ndm 2020) (xem bdng 2) Bdng2 DB so HS THPT DBSCL iheo lili dp tuoi den truung Nam 2015 Dansi e^ t u i i 15-17 huy a^ng 836.832 55 60 S4HS THPT 461.357 503.299 Bdng 3, DB sd'Idp, soCV THPT Nam 2015 Tu4i 1-4 5-9 10-14 15-17 18-19 Nam 2020 Dans6 Tiie S6HS 0« tu6i huy aOng THPT 15-17 507.811 60 550.128 65 • Quy djnh hl|n hdnh cOa Diiu li trudng trung hgc, sd HS THPT khdng qud H S / Idp vd theo thyc l l eua cdc Knh DBSCL thdi glon quo, binh qudn khodng , HS/ldp Nhu vdy, xdt theo xu hudng ddu tu md rdng Irudng Idp THPT thdi gian tdl, so HS/ldp, cung cd khd nfing binh qudn se td HS/ldp Ddng thdi, sd Idp tuong dng vdl so HS/ldp eung se khde nhou Nhung DB, tinh theo dinh mue H%/\dp Tit* huy m 55 eo SAHS THPT S i ldn THPT Nam 2020 Tiia S6GV huy S H S SAl6p THPT dOng THPT THPT S6GV T>1PT m 461.357 10,252 23 067 503,2S9 11.164 25.164 60 65 507 611 11.284 25 369 550 126 12 225 27,506 Nhu vdy, theo kit qud DB nhu tren, sd GV THPT cdc tinh DBSCL cd khd ndng d i n nfim 2015 se vdo khodng h> 23.0d7 den 25.1d4 vd d i n nfim 2020, sd G V s§ tu 25.389 d i n 27.50d DB Id mdl qud trinh tiem edn vert hi^n thyc, cdn duqc kllm tra, ddl chllu vd dllu chinh theo tOng thdi kl, lung blln dqng cua kinh t l - xd hdl Kit qud DB hen ddy cd t h l Id nhung thom khdo budc ddu eho cde nhd qudn li Irong vlec xdy dyng cdc quy hoqch, k l hoqch phdt triin DNGV THPT cde tinh DBSCL cho gioi doqn 2015 vd 2020 Thilt nghl, DB DNGV cdn duqc tlep tye nghien cuu vd DB mqt cdch cg i h l cho h/ng bq mdn Q (1) BO GD-DT \k BO NOi vy ThOng tir lifin tjeh stf 35/2006/TTLT-BGD-DT-BNV ngky 23/8/2006 vi vi$c huiJng d3n djnh miic bi£n ch^ vifin chiic d cSc ca sd giio due ph6 thOng cOng lap (2) Tuifi tri online, ngky 29/11/2007 (3) Quy^t djnh 20/2006/QD-TTg ng&y 20/01/2006 cua Thu tudng Chinh phii vi phit triin GD-DT vit d^y ngh6 viing ddng b^ng sOng Cmi Long din nam 2020 (4) Thu tiri5Tig Chfnh phii Quylt djnh stf 711/QDTTg ngiy 15/6/2012 phfi duyOt "Chiln luqc phSt tri^n giio dgc 2011-2020" Tai li^u tliam khdo Bo GD-DT Phuang hiring phit triin giio dye die tao vi day ngh6 vOng dOng b^ng sOng Ciru Long giaido^n 2011-2020 Hi Thl NgO (chi bifin) Dy bio giio dye: Vtfn d£ vi xu hintng Vi^n Khoa hgc gido d(tc Hi NOi, 1989 T6ng cvc thO'ng kfi Ni£n giim thtfng kfi 2009 SUMMARY Forecast is a process which needs updating, complementing and adjusting to fit the practical circumtances Basing on the orientations of developing education in the fi/lekong Delta provinces and the norms stipulated to general education, the auttvDr conducted surveys to forecastttie teaching staffs Inthet^/iekongD^a provinces by ttie years 2015 and 2020 the results of the forecast will tie useful for the Tuong ung vdl K lg 55% (hodc dO%) nfim 2015 management entitles to refer in terms of building huvd d0% (hodc d5%) nfim 2 , sd Idp, sd G V man resources, estabtehfrigi pfcinsfcwdev^plng eduTHPT cdn ddp ihig h-ong hrang lal sS Id [bdr^ 3): cation ofttietiA^ong t^elta re0an Tap chifilaodue s6 (ki a • i i / » i a i _# ... Quy djnh hl|n hdnh cOa Diiu li trudng trung hgc, sd HS THPT khdng qud H S / Idp vd theo thyc l l eua cdc Knh DBSCL thdi glon quo, binh qudn khodng , HS/ldp Nhu vdy, xdt theo xu hudng ddu tu md... 10,252 23 067 503,2S9 11.164 25.164 60 65 507 611 11.284 25 369 550 126 12 225 27,506 Nhu vdy, theo kit qud DB nhu tren, sd GV THPT cdc tinh DBSCL cd khd ndng d i n nfim 2015 se vdo khodng h> 23.0d7... la 46%), Hau Glang Id 67% (nam 2015), 70% (2020); Tlin Glang Id 55% nam (nam 2010 la 50%|; VTnh Long: 70% (30% c6n I9I hpc nghl) (nam 2015); Tra Vinh: % (nam 2015); C6 Mau: 61,14% (nam 2015),