68 TAP CHI P H A T T R I E N NHAN LUC, SO 3(13)-2009 / / ; ; MOT 80 VAN DE VE HAN CHE SUY GIAM KINH TE VA BAO DAM AN SINH XA HOI NGUYEN PHlTtfNG NAM'' L Tmh hinh khung hoang kinh te toan cau 2008 va cM cd khoang 6,7% nam 2009; Nga tang Cudc khung hodng tai chinb bat dau M My da tnfdng M 7,6% nam 2007, xudng 6,8% nam 2008 chuyen eupc khiing hodng kinh te todn va khoang 3% vao nam 2009; An Dp tang trffdng cau, lam cho hang loat ngan hang Idn phd sdn tii 9% nam 2007, xud'ng 7,3% nam 2008 va va tang tnfdng kinh te Me gidi gidm marM Nam 5,1% vao nam 2009 2008, khiing hoang da lam the gidi "bd'e bdi" ; Dau M FDI todn cau giam M 1,5 ngdn ty USD tren 30 ngdn ty USD; be thd'ng ngdn hang the nam 2007 xud'ng dffdi I ngan ty USD nam 2008 gidi mai 2,2 ngan ty USD va cM cdn khoang 500 ty USD vao nam 2009 Tang trffdng kinh te the gidi gidm matM: tff ODA cho cdc nffdc dang phdt trien khdng vffdt 5,2% nam 2007 xud'ng 3,4% nam 2008 va se qud 0,28% GDP cua cdc nffdc phdt trien (ttong xud'ng 0,5% nam 2009 Dan dau cupe khung kbi mffe cam kei la 0,51%) Lffdng kieu hoi hoang la nhdm CT7: M mffe tang GDP -i- 1% nam chuyen ve cde nffdc dang phat trien cung giam 2008 xud'ng -2% nam 2009 Trong dd My la - M mffe trung binh 2% GDP (337 ty USD) nam 1,6%, EU -2%, Nhat Ban -2,6% 2007 xud'ng 1,8% GDP (283 ty USD) nam 2008 Cdc nen kinh te mdi ndi (ludn dffdc ky vpng va cM cdn khoang dffdi 1% GDP vao nam 2009 la se giup tri dffdc da tang trffdng kMh te the Trong bdi canh khung hoang ndi hen, sff phoi gidi) cflng giam manh: tang trffdng M 8,3% nam hdp todn can ttong viec ban che khung hoang Id 2007 giam xudng 6,3% nam 2008 va cbi cdn rai quan trpng Hau bet cde nen kinh te' Idn diu khoang 3,3% nam 2009 Trong dd, Trung Qud'c cM nhffng khoan tien Idn de ciM ttd kMh te (My tang trffdng M 11,9% nam 2007 xudng 9% nam cM khoang 2.800 ty USD, Trung Qudc - 586 t^ USD, Nhat Ban - 275 ty USD, Nga - 250 t^ USD, Dffe - 81 ty USD, A'n Dd - 61 ty USD, (*) PGS TS NCVCC Anh - 30 ty USD, Phap - 26 ty USD), My nWen, 69 NGUYEN PHUONG NAM - MOT SO VAN DE cho den ket qua van cdn nMeu ban che Theo dff bao eiia cdc chuyen gia bdng dau Me gidi, cdc "gdi kich cau" vd cac gidi pbdp cuh ttd nMeu nam qua), mffe tang trffdng eiia du lieh, xuai khdu, vdn dau M trffc tie'p deu giam so vdi nam 2008 kinh te ndi tren chffa du life de "ham phanh" Hai la, nhffng van de gan vdi quyen vd ldi ich cudc khiing hoang Cudc khung hoang cdn dang cua nhffng ngffdi lao ddng trd nen bffc xuc: mdt dien vd ed the "dffng lai" vao cudi nam 2009 bp phdn ndng ddn tMeu rudng ddi va san xuai Do dd, cd the mai tff den nam (sau khung khdng dn dinh; cdng rMan Iffdng tha'p vd thieu hodng) de bdi phue nen kinh te viec Idm, dpi ngfl tri thffc Iffdng tha'p va tMeu Anh hffofng khung hoang kinh te of Viet Nam va nhiTng vSfn dd dat Trong 22 nam ddi mdi, Viet Nam da dat dffdc dieu kien tham gia vdo cdc chffdng trirM phdt trien kinh te - xa hdi mang tinh cMen Iffdc cua dai nffdc va cua cdc dia phffdng nhflng thdnh tffu an Mdng: nen kirM te tang trffdng Ba la, sd Iffdng vd chai Iffdng sd'ng cua ngffdi cao (7,5%) hen tuc nMeu nam, thu hut dau lao ddng cd xu hffdng gidm sut An sinh xa hpi M tnfc tie'p Idn (rieng nam 2008 la hdn 60 ty chffa dffdc bao dam day du; phan hda giau ngheo USD) vd de'n dat khoang 100 ty USD Da cd xu hffdng tang len; mdi trffdng sd'ng, mdi gidm dffdc ty le ngheo ddi tff 58% nam 1993 trffdng ldm viec suy giam vd cde te nan xa hdi xudng cdn khodng 12% vdo nam 2008, ddi sdng cd nguy cd lan rdng nhdn dan dffdc cai tMen, che dp cMiM tri - xa TirM WrM tren ed nMeu nguyen rMan, hpi dn dinh, Viet Nam da la vien cua WTO, dd, cd ede nguyen rMan ehii ye'u: ve mat khach vi the vd uy tin edng dffdc nang cao tren quan, la ndi life eua ehung ta edn ye'u, trffdng qudc te dd, lai bi tac ddng manh bdi khiing hoang Tuy nMen, cho den nay, Viet Nam van edn la kinh te todn cau; ve mat ehii quan la sff dieu nffdc ngheo vd trang thdi kem phdt trien banh cua cdc edp, ede nganh d Trung ffdng vd Nen kinh te Viet Nam van la kinh te ndng ngMep, ede dia phffdng cdn nMeu bai cap, yeu kem va nang sudi lao ddng tha'p, ddi sd'ng cua da so dan ddi kW td lung Mng; dd ngffdi lao eff, nhai Id rMflhg ngffdi lao ddng (edng dan, ndng ddng va ede doanh ngMep cdn "y lai", trdng chd dan, tri thffe) edn tha'p va khdng dn dinh, he thdng vdo sff ttd giup ciia nhd nffdc va vao "van may" an smh xa hdi edn kMem td'n Tang trffdng kinh eua minh te eao vd nhanh (trong nhffng nam qua), nhflhg chffa viMg chac vd cflng chffa Mat sff gan vdi viec thffc Men cdng bang xa hpi vd phat trien ben vffng M6t so giai phap gop phan han che' suy giam Idnh te va bao dam an sinh xa hpi Hoat ddng cua tni cdt (Nhd nffdc, doanh nghiep, ngffdi lao ddng) nen kinh te thi Viet Nam da va dang phai chiu anh hffdng khd trffdng dinh hffdng xd hdi chii ngMa cd y nghia manh ciia khung hoang kinh te todn cau Dieu effc ky quan trpng ddi vdi viee ban che kliung dffdc the Men d nhffng diem chu yeu sau: hoang kinh te va bao dam an sinh xa hdi Trong Mpt Id, nam 2008 tdc dp tang trffdng kirM te dd, Nha nffdc giff vai hd chu dao vd cd y ngWa dat 6,2%, lam phdt tang cao (khoang 25%), 16/ quyet dinh Nam tay eae ngudn life phdt 25 chi tieu dat va vffdt ke hoach, 9/25 cM tieu tiien ciia qud'c gia, Nhd nffdc ehii ddng dffa vd khdng dat ke hoach Bffde sang nam 2009, nffdc thffc Men cMen Iffdc vd cdc quyet sdch phfl hdp, ta edn gap khd khan bdn Quy I nam 2009, tang kip thdi de ban che suy giam kinh te vd bao tiifdng kinh te chi dat 3,1% (la mffe tha'p Midi ddm an sinh xa hdi & ddy, can hdnh tff tffdng NGUYEN PHUONG NAM - MOT SO VAN DI 70 ndng vdi, chu quan, coi thffdng quy Mat khach quan va Mai dp bao thu tri tre - Thd nhdt, Nhd nffdc can tang effdng nhffng "gdi trd giup" (cho vay chff khdng phai cho khdng) tdc ddng tnfc tiep vao "kich cau dau M va tieu dflng" va "Muc day san xuai kinh doarM, xuai khau" Dong thdi, can cd cd che va chinb sdch de nam va kiem sodt dffdc sff van haiM cua nhffng "gdi trd giup" (bao dam "kich can" cho san xuai vd tieu dflng phai mang tinh tich effc vd cd Meu qua tMet thffc) - Thd hai, vdi M each Id chu Me san xudi kinh doanh, cac doatM nghiep can chii ddng phdt huy ndi life, sff dung sff trd giup cua Nhd nffdc mdt cdch Men qua (trong nhffng dieu kien iMai dinh vd cd trffdng hdp can phai chap iMan lai it hoac khdng cd lai de tri sdn xudi kinh doatM vd hd ttd ngffdi lao ddng) - Tha ba, ngffdi lao ddng can chu ddng "tff cffu minh" bang cdch tich effc Mam gia sdn xuai, kinh doaiM; xay dffng va thffe Men chffdng triiM tiei kiem tflfng gia dirM vdi Mng cdng viee cu Me (khdng lang pW); ddng thdi phai pha'n da'u, tff hpc tap, tff ddo tao de tWchffngvdi tM tiifdng ludn bien ddi - Tha tu, can thffc Men cdng khai, minh bach ve tai chinh vd cdc boat ddng cua cdc cd quan, ddn vi Nha nffdc, cdc td chffc chinh tri - xa hpi M ttung ffdng den dia phffdng (hff bi mat qud'c gia) Ddng Mdi, tang effdng edng tdc M van, giam dinh va phan bien xa hdi ddi vdi cdc chii trffdng, cWnh sdch, cac cdng trinh, dif an & cac cap Cd the ndi, cdng khai minh bach va phan bien xa hdi khdng cM la cdng cu sac ben de han che quan heu, lang pW va tham iMung, md edn ttcl thdiM ddng life thuc day kinh te - xa hdi phat trien - JTia ndm, can phai Mffe Men "quyet het" cac giai phap quan trpng iMff: tiei kiem giao tie'p, san xuai, kinh doaiM, sinh boat va tieu dflng; kien quyei chd'ng thai thoat vd cac bieu Men eua quan heu va tham nhflng; xay difhg va hoan tMen cac bd Mat hen quan tnfctie'pden san xuai, kinh doanh, tieu dung va bao dam an siiM xa hdi; day manh eai cdch hdtM ehinh d tat ca cdc cap, cac ngaiM; tao dieu kien thuan ldi cho doanh ngMep va tMffng ngffdi lao ddng co Metie'pcan tnfc tie'p cdc "gdi kich can" vd nhiing phuc ldi xa hdi Nhff vay, ttong dieu kien suy giam kinh te, sif thd'ng iMai ve muc tieu vd ^ chi cung vdi sif phdi hdp chat che ttong boat ddng giffa Nhd nffdc vdi cac doarM ngMep va tMffng ngffdi lao dpng dffa tren ed sd ldi ich chimg cua dai nffdc (ttong cd ldi ich cua cac chu the boat ddng) eo ^ ngMa quyet diiM den viec ban che suy giam kinh te va bao dam an sinh xa hdi MM ^^ ... giai phap gop phan han che' suy giam Idnh te va bao dam an sinh xa hpi Hoat ddng cua tni cdt (Nhd nffdc, doanh nghiep, ngffdi lao ddng) nen kinh te thi Viet Nam da va dang phai chiu anh hffdng khd... ngMa cd y nghia manh ciia khung hoang kinh te todn cau Dieu effc ky quan trpng ddi vdi viee ban che kliung dffdc the Men d nhffng diem chu yeu sau: hoang kinh te va bao dam an sinh xa hdi Trong... ddm an sinh xa hdi & ddy, can hdnh tff tffdng NGUYEN PHUONG NAM - MOT SO VAN DI 70 ndng vdi, chu quan, coi thffdng quy Mat khach quan va Mai dp bao thu tri tre - Thd nhdt, Nhd nffdc can tang