Biến động dân số tỉnh thái nguyên thời kỳ 1999 2009

Tran Viet Khanh vd dig 81(05): 73-78 Tap chi KHOA HOC & CONG NGHE BIEN DONG DAN SO TINH THAI N G U Y E N THOI KI 1999 - 2009 Trdn Viit Khanh'', Pham Thj Kim Duyen^ Dgt hoc Thdi Nguyen ' Trudng PT Viing cao I 'let Bac TOM TAT Thai Nguyen la mot tinh cd dan sd tuong ddi ddng nen mac dd ty le gia tang dan so tu nhien dang cd xu hudng giam nhung quy md dan sd van tang nhanh Hien nay, dan sd Thai Nguyen dang budc vao thdi ki dan sd vang, vdi ngudn lao dgng chiem tdi 69,3% Day vua la co hdi de phat trien kinh te - xa hdi, nhung cung la nhung thach thdc ma lanh dao va cac nha hoach djnh chinh sach can dac biet quan tam, chu y Tren co sd phan tich nhung bien dgng cda dan sd thdi ki 1999 - 2009, nhdm tac gia dua mdt sd ket luan ve dac diem co ban cua dan sd tinh Thai Nguyen Til' khoa: Ddn sd, bien ddng, phdn bd, gia tdng, Thdi Nguyen DAT VAN DE KET QUA NGHIEN CUU VA THAO Dan s6 vd phdt trien eo moi quan he tdc dgng qua lai rat chat che Quy m6, co cau, chat lugng vd t6c tdng ddn so c6 dnh hudng rdt Idn den qua trinh phdt trien kinh te - xd hoi vd ngugc lai Hon nua, ddn s6 Id co sa hinh thdnh ngu6n lao dgng cd ve s6 lugng, chat lugng va co cdu Dong thai gia tang dan so Thdi Nguyen Id mot tinh dugc ddnh gia Id co trinh phdt trien kinh te - xd hoi vdo loai khd so vdi cac tinh Trung du mien ndi phia Bde, la cua ngo giao luu cua vung trung du mien nui phia Bde vd vung ddng bdng s6ng H6ng Thdi Nguyen e6n Id trung tam c6ng nghiep cda cd nuac Id noi thu hdt nhieu nhd dau tu vd ngodi nude Nghj quyet so 37/NQ - TW cda Bg chinh trj (1/7/2004) da xdc djnh pbal trien Thdi Nguyen tra thdnh trung tdm kinh te - xa hoi cda vdng Viec xdc djnh ddng de phdt huy c6 hieu qud the manh cda tinh co y nghTa rat quan trgng, ddc biet Id nguon luc dan s6 vd ngu6n lao d6ng Do do, phdn lich nhung bien dgng dan s6 d tinh Thdi Nguyen la van de cdn thiet, trudc bet n6 g6p phan danh gid chinh xdc tbirc trang dan so thai ki CNH, HDH; tren co so gidp nhd qudn ly nha kinh te biet dugc moi quan he tac dgng giua ddn s6, ngu6n lao dgng vd su phdt trien de de cdc bien phap dilu tilt cdc qud trinh phdt trien dan so va phdt triln kinh ll - xd hoi cua dja phuong ' /'(•/.• 0912187118 :.;: r LUAN Ddng thdi chung Theo kel qua dieu tra dan s6 nam 2009 tinh Thdi Nguyen c6 s6 ddn Id 1.127.430 ngudi Xet ve quy m6 dan so, Thdi Nguyen dugc xep vj tri thu 33 so voi cd nude vd xep thu s6 cdc linh Trung du Mien ndi phia Bde (sau Bde Giang vd Phd Thg) So vdi kel qud dieu tra ndm 1999, sau 10 ndm ddn s6 cda tinh tdng them 79630 nguai, binh qudn moi ndm tang them gdn ngdn ngudi Nhu vay, vdi t6c d6 tang ddn s6 7,6%, tinh muc gia lang ddn so hdng ndm cda linh giira cugc t6ng dieu tra Id 0,7%, thap ban so vdi giai doan 1989 - 1999 vd cung thdp ban so vdi iniie tdng trung binh cda cd nude (1,2%) Bang Quy md dan sd tinh Thai Nguyen thdi ki 1999-2009 Nam Dan sd (ngudi) 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 1.047.800 1.055.535 1.063.568 1.071.009 1079.541 1.089.011 1.098.491 1.106.498 I.I 13.024 1.120.311 1.127.430 Ngudn; Nien gldm thdng ke tinh Thai Nguyen, 2009 73 Trdn Viet Khanh va dig Tap chi KHOA HOC & CONG NGHE 81 (05): 73-78 10 nam qua Nam 2009 gia tang tu nhien la Co thi nhan djnh dgng thai dan so a tinh Thai 0,99% nam 1999 la 1,7% Nguyen a trang thai "tTnh" Tu ddi mai Ty sudt sinh th6 chung cua toan tinh nam den nay, nen kinh te chuyen sang co che 2009 la 16,8 phdn ngan, thap hon so vdi 17,6 thj truang, qua trinh d6 thj hod dien manh phdn ngdn eua trung binh ca nuac va 19,6 hem, dan so cdc tinh, thdnh co kinh te phat phdn ngdn cua vung Trung du mien ndi phia triln nhu Hd Ngi, Hai Ph6ng, Dd Ndng, thdnh Bde Tuy nhien, neu xet theo khu vuc thi d ph6 Ho Chi Minh xdy hien tugng bung khu vuc thdnh thj eo ti suat sinh tho (16,28 no dan s6 gia tdng eo gioi, dan eu tir noi phdn ngan) thap so vai binh quan trung cua khac din lam dn, sinh s6ng, hgc tap nhung loan tinh va thdp hon nhieu so vdi khu vuc d tinh Thai Nguyen kh6ng xdy hien tugng ndy, gia tdng tu nhien van giu vai tro chu dao n6ng th6n (17,05 phdn ngan) khu virc qua trinh tdng quy mo dan s6 Day la n6ng thon boat dgng nonj nghiep Id chd yeu, dgng thai chung cda cdc tinh trung du mien tu tuong sinh eon d6ng van t6n tai ndi, trinh phdt trien kinh te chdm Tong ty sudt sinh tren dja ban tinh gan dat Tuy nhien, tinh hinh phdt trien ddn s6 eua tinh muc sinh thay the (binh quan 1,9 eon/phu nd) Thdi Nguyen eo su khac biet giua ede huyen Tuy nhien, quy mo dan s6 Ion nen vdi ly thj The hien ro qua bdng sudt sinh tho Id 16,8 phdn ngan thi binh quan Thdnh ph6 Thdi Nguyen va thj xa S6ng C6ng m6i nam c6 khoang 18 ngdn tre dugc sinh ra, chju tdc dgng mang tinh thu hut cua qua trinh d6 ty suat chet tho la 6,9 phan ngan, d6 thj hoa nen c6 t6c tdng ddn s6 rat cao tinh sau 10 nam tang dan so cua tinh se Sau 10 nam ddn so thdnh ph6 Thdi Nguyen tuong duong dan so eua huyen Phu Luang tdng them 68.049 nguoi, m6i nam tdng 3,2%; Gia tdng ddn sd ca gidi Thj xa S6ng C6ng tdng them 6.411 nguai, t6e Do dae thu la mot tinh trung du, sir phat trien tang binh qudn nam Id 1,5%) Trong do, eua no chju dnh huong cua nhieu nhan td, vj cac huyen nhu Djnh Hod, Dai Tu, Phd Binh tri cua tinh kh6ng thuan Igi nuac ta tien lai CO ddn s6 thdp ban so voi 10 ndm truac hdnh ma cua nen kinh te (Thdi Nguyen khdng khoang tren dudi 3.000 nguoi, nguyen nhdn nam vung kinh te trgng diem Bac Bd), chu yeu nhu cdu hgc tap vd viec Idm nen ty sue hut vd tiem luc kinh te yeu, sir ddu tu le xuat cu cao hon muc gia tang tu nhien cua nhd nuoe eon chua nhieu, cae the manh Nhin chung, t6c gia tang dan s6 tren loan vdn e6n Id tiem nang, vi vay sue hut cda nd linh 10 ndm qua thdp hon thai ki 1989 doi voi eae Iu6ng di eu vdo d6 thj chua Id-n 1999 vd thdp hon so vdi trung binh ea nude Ngugc lai, dan eu dja ban mot s6 huyen Cd dugc ket qud nhu vay mot mat la ket qud eon xuat cu kh6i dja ban vi ly hgc tap hoac cda nhieu ndm kien tri trien khai chuong trinh viee lam nhu huyen Dai TIJ sau 10 ndm cd Dan s6 vd ke hoach hod gia dinh, mat khde khoang 21 ngan nguoi; huyen Phu Binh co nhu cdu hgc tap vd viee Idm nen e6 mot bg phan khoang 18 ngdn nguai; huyen Djnh Hoa co ddn cu da di chuyen khdi dja phuang khoang 13,5 ngdn nguoi, vay tai thai diem Gia tdng ddn sd tu nhiin dieu tra t6e tang dan so cua thai ki 1999 Gia tang tu nhien eua tinh Thdi Nguyen 2009 Id am (Bang 2) kh6ng Idn vd co xu huong gidm vong linh Thai Nguyen giai doan 1999 - 2009 Bang Tinh hinh phat trien dan sd Nam Toan tinh Tp Thai Nguyen Thi xa Song Cong Huyen Dinh Hoa Huyen Phu Luang Huyen Dong Hy Huyen Vo Nhai Huven Dai Tir Huyen Pho Yen Huyen Phii Binh 1999 2009 1.047.800 211.661 43.589 89.622 102.983 111.318 60.417 161.871 130.651 135.644 1.127.430 279.710 50.000 86.200 105.250 112.970 63.950 158.700 137.150 133.500 Chenh lech (ngu'6'0 79.630 68.049 6.411 -3.422 2.267 1.652 3.533 -3.171 6.499 -2.144 Ngudn; Xu ly tit sd lieu long diiu tra ddn sd ndm 1999 vd 2009 IA Miic tang dan so trung binh theI'Iki 1999-2009 (%) 7,6 32.1 14,7 -3,8 2,2 1,5 5,8 -1,9 4,9 -1,6 Tran Viit Khanh vd dig Tap chi KHOA HOC & CONG NGHE 81(05): 73-78 Ket cau dan so Kit cdu ddn sd theo giai tinh Kit cdu ddn sd theo tudi Sau nhieu ndm kien tri trien khai thuc hien Chuang trinh ddn so va ke hoach hoa gia dinh, den cong tae dan so tren dja bdn tinh Thdi Nguyen da thu dugc nhieu kel qud Ty suat sinh th6 lien tuc gidm nhieu nam qua, binh qudn m6i nam gidm tu 0,2 den 0,3 phdn nghin; s6 bd me sinh Ihu ba chi chiem ty le nho, moi nam so truong hgp sinh thu ba chi chiem khoang 5%; t6ng ty sudt sinh da dat muc sinh thay the, binh qudn m6i bd me tuoi sinh de khodng Kel cdu dan s6 theo tu6i a tinh Thai Nguyen 10 nam qua cd nhOng chuyen bien khd ro net Nhom tuoi tu - 14 giam nhanh dieu phan dnh dung mirc sinh dang ed xu hudng gidm So nguoi tuoi lao dgng chiem Ian vd eo xu hudng tang ed ve so lugng vd CO cau Thai Nguyen e6 ket cdu ddn so tre va dang buoc vao thoi ki gid hod (Ddn s6 c6 ket cau gid ti le dudi 14 tuoi chiem dudi 25% vd tren 60 tuoi ehilm tren 10%)) C6 thi noi dan s6 Thai Nguyen dang Irong thai ki co CO cau ddn sd vdng, luc lugng lao dgng doi dao, day vija Id thai co eho phdt triln kinh tl cda tinh song vdi nguon lao dgng Idn cung tao nhung thach thuc cho c6ng tdc gidi quyet viec lam, cdc van de KT-XH khac Nh6m tuoi tu 60 trd Ien c6 xu hudng tang cho thay ket qud tich cue cda c6ng tae y te, chdm sdc sue khoe va muc s6ng cda nguoi dan da dugc nang len giup tu6i thg tang cao Ddy cung la van de dat cho eae nhd chuc trach ti le nguai gid tang (bang 3) Bang Ket cau dan sd theo tudi cda tinh Thai Nguyen nam 1999 va 2009 1999 So lu'ong ' CQ- cau Do tuoi (Ngu'6-1) (%) 1045906 100 0- 14 330974 31.6 61.4 641876 15-59 7.0 73056 60 trcJ len 2009 So lu-ong Co' cau (%) (Ngu'6'1) 100 1127430 249909 22.2 781305 69.3 96216 8.5 Ngudn: Xir ly so lieu theo ket qud tdng dieu tra nam 1999 vd 2009 Tuy nhien thue hien chinh sdch ke hoach hoa gia dinh, moi cap vg ch6ng chi dugc sinh tir mot den hai eon, tdm ly trgng nam, khinh nir van ton lai nhieu noi, cdng vdi su phat trien eua khoa hgc ngdy cdng phdt trien nen nhieu ba me lira chgn gidi tinh sinh (Ihuong chgn eon trai) nen c6 nhieu y kien lo ngai ve sir mdt can bdng gidi tinh dan s6, nhdl Id cdc lu6i truang thdnh Theo ket qua t6ng dieu tra dan s6 thdi diem 01/4/2009, ty so gidi tinh (so lugng nam gidi tren 100 nu gidi) tren dja bdn tinh Id 97,8 nam/100 nu NghTa Id cu 100 dan s6 nu' co 97,8 nam Ndi each khde, ddn so nu chiem 50,6%), ddn s6 nam chiem 49,4%) Nhu vay neu xel tren long the co cdu ddn so chung cda tinh thi co cau gidi tinb tren dja ban tinh hodn toan can doi vd phu hgp vdi xu the chung Tuy nhien neu xet theo tirng tuoi thi co cdu gidi tinh co su khac Bang Dan sd chia theo tudi va gidi tinh nam 2009 Nhdm tudi Tong so Dudi tudi Tu den dudi tudi T u den dudi 10 tudi Tu 10 den dudi 20 tudi Td 20 den dudi 30 ludi Tu 30 tudi trd len Tdng sd 1.123.116 19.081 68.025 78.437 209.287 224.315 523.791 Dan sd (ngudi) Chia Nam 555.371 10.041 34.985 40.305 106.236 113.850 249.954 Nir 567.745 9.040 33.040 38.132 103.051 110.465 274.017 Ty sd gidi tinh (nam/IOOnCr) 97,8 111,1 105,9 105,7 103,1 103,1 91,2 Nguon; Cue thdng ke tinh Thdi Nguyen 75 Trdn Viet Khanh vd dig Tap chi KHOA HOC & CONG NGHE Doi vai nhdm duai I tu6i, ty s6 gioi tinh la 111,1 nam tren 100 nu; doi voi nh6m tu6i tu1 din duai luoi ty so ndy Id 105,9 nam tren 100 nu; doi vai nhom tuoi tir din duai 10 tuoi, ty so la 105,7 nam tren 100 nu; nhom tu6i tu 10 den duai 20 tu6i ty so la 103,1 nam tren 100 nQ-; nb6m tu6i tu 20 din duai 30 tuoi c6 ly so la 103,1 nam tren 100 nu; nh6m tudi tu 30 tuoi tra len eo ty so la 91,2 nam tren 100 nu Theo nghien cuu cua cdc nhd khoa hgc thi ty so giai tinb sinh hoac cdng nhom tu6i mdc duoi 107 nam tren 100 nu- thi vdn pham vi cho phep, neu nhu tu 107 nam tr6 len la mdc c6 nguy co mat can bdng Nhu vay, nhom tu6i tu 20 den duoi 30 tuoi (do tuoi kit h6n bien) e6 ty s6 giai tinh Id 103,1 nam tren 100 nu thi su mat can bdng gidi tinh chua ddng lo ngai Tuy nhien nhom tu6i duai tu6i thi ty s6 giai tinh da la 107 nam tren 100 nu Irong d6, rieng nh6m tuoi duai lu6i la 111,1 nam tren 100 nu thi da bdt ddu xudt hien nguy ca mat edn bang gioi tinh So sdnh ket qud ndy voi ket qud t6ng dieu tra ddn so ndm 1999 (bdng 5) Theo kel qud l6ng dieu tra nam 1999, ty s6 gidi tinh nhdm tu6i duoi tu6i Id cao nhdt dat 107 nam tren 100 nQ-, ddy la muc giai ban cho phep Nhu vay sau 10 nam, s6 da tdng dang ke len 111,1 nam tren 100 nu (2009) Cac nhom lu6i khac c6 su thay d6i nhung kh6ng ddng ke Vdn de cdn bang gioi neu chi tinh tren pham vi mot tinh, mgl dja phuong thi chua ddy du md thu6ng dugc tinh tren pham vi cua mot qu6c gia Tuy nhien neu nhu tinh ndo, dja Bang Dan sd chia theo Nhdm tudi Tong so Dudi tudi Td den dudi tudi Tu den dudi 10 tudi Tu 10 den dudi 20 ludi Tu 20 den dudi 30 tuoi Tu 30 tuoi tro len Ngudn Cue thdng ke tinh Thdi Nguyen -r.-; : Tdng sd 1045906 15370 70625 117454 250246 193189 399022 81(05): 73-78 phucmg nao eung bj mdt can bang giai tinh thi se ddn den ca nuac mdt can bang gidi tinh Khi mot dat nuac can bang gidi tinh khong dugc ddm bdo thi se dan den he luy rat Ion Bdi hge da xay o mot s6 nude, mot so vung lanh tho tren the gioi ma dien hinh la Trung Qu6c Phan bo dan cir Phdn bo ddn cu theo Idnh thd Qua bang s6 lieu tren nhan thay ddn sd cua tinh phan bo kh6ng deu vd eo su khde biet lo'n giQa thdnh thj vd nong th6n, vung kinh te dja ly Do cdc dieu kien tu nhien va kinh te xa hoi CO sir khac biet theo lanh th6 nen dan cu eua tinh tap trung chu yeu thdnh ph6, thj xa va mot so huyen phia nam cua tinh, nhu ph6 Thdi Nguyen mat gap hon lan mat trung binh cua tinh hay thj xa Song Cdng, huyen Pho Yen, huyen Phu Binh mat cung gap hon I lan mue trung binh cua todn tinh Ngugc lai mot s6 huyen nhu Vo Nhai, Djnh Hod dan cu tap trung thua thot, mat dan so thap Qua day, can c6 ehinh sdch ddu lu phii hgp dl phdt trien co so tdng cho cdc huyen e6n gap nhieu kho khan phat trien kinh ll xd hoi, cung ehinh la mot nhung bien phap huu hieu de phan bo lai ddn cu va ngu6n lao dgng tinh Qud trinh d6 thj hod tren dja bdn tinh dien kha nhanh, nam 1999 dan d6 thj chi chiem 21,8% thi din ndm 2009 da tdng Ien 25,5% dung thu 22 ed nuoe va dung dau sd cac linh Trung du vd mien nui phia Bac tudi va gidi tinh nam 1999 Dan sd (ngudi) Chia Nam 521367 7947 35823 60304 128109 98287 190867 Nu524539 7423 34772 57150 I22I37 94902 208155 Ty sd gidi tinh (nam/100 nir) 99.4 107.1 103.0 105.5 104.9 103.6 91.7 76 J Tran Viet Khanh vd dig Tap chi KHOA HQC & CONG NGHE 81(05): 73-78 Bang Mat dan sd tinh Thai Nguyen nam 1999 va 2009 Nam 2009 Dan sd Mat dan sd (Ngudi/km2) (Ngudi) 3526.2 320 Toan tinh 1127430 189.7 1474 Tp Thai Nguyen 279710 83.64 Thj xa Sdng Cdng 50000 598 511.09 Huyen Djnh Hoa 86200 169 369.33 105250 285 Huyen Phu Luong 457.75 112970 247 Huyen Ddng Hy 76 Huyen Vo Nhai 840.1 63950 Huyen Dai Tu 568.55 279 158700 534 Huyen Phd Yen 137150 256.68 535 Huyen Phu Binh 133500 249.36 Ngudn; Xu ly theo sd lieu thdng ke ndm 1999 vd 2009 cua Cue Thdng ke Thai Nguyen Phan theo don vj cap huyen Dien tich (km2) Nam 1999 Mat dan sd (Ngudi/km2) 1047800 297 2II66I 1116 43589 521 89622 175 102983 279 1II3I8 243 60417 72 285 I6I87I 509 130651 544 135644 Dan sd (Ngudi) Gia tdng dan dd thj ngodi yeu t6 gia tang tu nhien thi chd yeu gia tdng ca hge, v6ng 10 ndm c6 khoang 36 ngdn nguai nhap cu vao khu vuc thdnh thj Tuy nhien, sir phdn b6 ddn cu cdc d6 thj cung kh6ng deu, ehu yeu tap trung noi cd cac truong ehuyen nghiep (thanh ph6 Thdi Nguyen); hoac cdc khu e6ng nghiep (thj xa S6ng Cong), khu d6 thj mai Trong do, khu vuc n6ng th6n ed sir djch chuyen khu vuc ngodi thdnh thj vd ngodi tinh ngdy cdng Idn nhu eau hge lap vd c6ng viec, udc linh mdi ndm binh qudn cd khoang ngdn ngudi xudt cu kh6i khu vuc n6ng lh6n Dudi tdc dgng cua kinh te thj trudng, ddn s6 dang cd xu hudng djch chuyen va phdn b6 lai Qua trinh ndy cdn co sir dieu tiet cua Nhd nude de tranh su mat can ddi va phd va quy hoach, gay tdc dgng xdu den m6i truong, anh hudng den phdt trien kinh le - xa boi Phdn bd ddn cu theo thdnh thi vd ndng thdn Qua trinh d6 thj hod tren dja ban dien khd nhanh, sau 10 nam dan so khu vuc lhanh thj tdng them khoang tren 60 ngdn nguoi Voi ty le dan thj nhu tren, Thdi Nguyen dung thu 22 cd nuoc vd dung ddu cdc tinh cua vdng Trung du vd mien ndi phia Bde ve s6 dan thdnh thj (bdng 7) Sir chuyin biin phdn bd ddn cu theo hd gia dinh Nam 2009, tren dja ban loan linh co 325.680 hg dan cu, hg nhd trg, hg nhd trg sinh vien So vdi ndm 1999 tdng them 87.943 hg vdi mdc tang binh qudn Id 3,1%/ndm, cao hon so vdi cd nude (3,0%/ndm) Tuy nhien, tdc d6 vd nhjp tdng s6 hg kh6ng deu giua cac don vj hdnh chinh cdp huyen Hdu bet cdc huyen cd l6c tdng so hg thdp ban trung binh cua tinh nhung rieng ph6 Thdi Nguyen va thj xa S6ng C6ng Idng rdt cao, thdnh ph6 Thai Nguyen tang gdp 1,8 Idn ddy Id noi lap trung nhieu cae truong chuyen nghiep, cdc khu c6ng nghiep, khu d6 thj co sue hut lan ban cdc noi khde Bang Dan sd phan theo thj va ndng thdn tinh Thai Nguyen nam 1999 va 2009 Nam 1999 047.800 Tdng sd (ngudi) 21.81 Ti le dan thj (%) 25.60 Ti le dan ndng thdn (%) Ngudn; Xir ly lir sd lieu tong ke cita tinh Thdi Nguyen ndm 1999 vd 2009 Nam 2009 127.430 79.19 74.40 77 Trdn Viet Khanh vd dig Tap chi KHOA HOC & CONG NGHE Ve quy m6 cdc hg, neu nam 1999, quy mo hg la 4,4 nguai thi sau 10 nam so da giam 3.4 nguoi/hg, d6 giam manh nhat Id Thai Nguyen tu nguai xu6ng 2,9ngu-ai/h6 Trong cdc nhom hg theo quy mo nhan khau nhdn thdy nhoni hg co tir din nguoi chiem tai 53%o, co the noi day la quy m6 mang tinh bien o tdt ca eac dja phuong Sau 10 ndm quy m6 ede hg Ion (tren 5-6 nguai tra Ien)c6 xu huong giarn, tang quy mo cdc hg nho vd trung binh Dieu mot mat phdn anh ket qua e6ng tdc van dgng sinh de CO ke hoach vai m6 hinh gia dinh it con, mat khde mot muc ndo d6 ddc trung eho cdc hg gia dinh e6 viee Idm thoat ly khoi san xudt nong nghiep nhu bu6n bdn, kinh doanh, c6ng chuc Ddy eung Id mot xu huong phdt trien cda xa hoi, la su thay the cda cae gia dinh hien dai vai eo cdu hat nhdn Id bo, me va cdi thay eho kieu gia dinh truyen thong vdi nhieu the he chung s6ng (tam dai, tiJ dai d6ng dudng ) KET LUAN Qua nghien euu dan s6 tinh Thdi Nguyen giai doan 1999 - 2009, ehung t6i rut mot s6 kit ludn sau: - Ty s6 phu thuge (l6ng s6 tre em va nguoi gid binh qudn cho mgl nguai tu6i lao dgng, tu 15 den 59) kh6ng ngung gidm: Nam 1999 s6 ndy la 0,63 din ndm 2009 xuong c6n 0,44 Day Id "co hoi dan so vdng", hay "du Igi dan s6", tuc Id m6i nguoi lao dgng ganh nhe ddn s6 nguoi dn theo, tao dieu kien t6l cho kinh te qu6c dan, kinh tl gia dinh eo tiet kiem de dau tu phdt trien - Co cdu dan so Thdi Nguyen bdt dau c6 bieu hien mat cdn d6i giai tinh Ty so gioi tinh (s6 81 (05): 73-78 nam tuong urng vai 100 nCr) thap va khong on djnh (nam 1999 ty s6 la 99,4; nam 2009 la 97,8) Nhom duoi I tuoi, ty so gioi tinh khong ngimg tang, nghTa la tre em trai cang nhieu hon tre em gdi cung nhom tuoi (nam 1999 la 107,1 vd nam 2009 la 111,1) - Phan bo dan cu khong deu theo don vj hanh chinh Trong don vj hdnh chinh cap huyen, 24,7%) dan so tap trung Thanh phd Thai Nguyen chi chiem 5,4%odien tich Trong do, huyen Vo Nhai chiem toi 23,8%) dien tich toan tinh thi chi co 5,7%) dan so - Ty le dan thj thdp; Theo Cue Thdng ke, din nam 2009, ty le dan thj moi dat 25.6% Nhieu huyen, ty le dan thj chua den 10% nhu: Dai f u 4,7%; Djnh Hod 6,8%, Vd Nhai 5,4%, Phu Binh 5,5% Nhu vay, vl dai the Thai Nguyen van la mot tinh "tam ndng" (nong thon, nong nghiep va n6ng dan) Day la nguyen nhan tao nen nhu cau nhieu va can CO trai TAI LIEU THAM KHAO ^ [1] Nguyen Phuong Lien, Nguyen Xuan Trudng Nghien ciru dgc diem vd bien dgng ddn sd thcinh phd Thdi Nguyen thdi ki 1989 - 1999 DI tai nghien cuu khoa hgc, Trudng DHSP - DH Thai Nguyen, 2002 [2] Cue Thdng ke Thai Nguyen, Nien gidm thong ke tinh Thdi Nguyen, 2009 [3] Cue Thdng ke Thai Nguyen, Ket qud long dieu tra ddn so 1.4.1999 tinh Thdi Nguyen, 1999 [4] Cue Thdng ke Thai Nguyen, Ket qud chit yen tdng hgp tir tdng dieu tra ddn so vd nha a 01/4/2009 tinh Thdi Nguyen, 2009 [5] Website: http://www.kinhtenongthon.com.vn SUMMARY CHANGE OF THE POPULATION OF THAI NGUYEN IN PERIOD OF 1999 - 2009 Tran Viet Khanh'*, Pham Thi Kim Duyen^ Thainguyen University, 'Viet Bac High Schools Thai Nguyen is a mountainous province It is located in North - East of VieUiam Thai Nguyen's population is ranked at the 33"* of all provinces in Vietnam and ranked at the 3"" of Midlle Mountainous provinces in the North of Vietnam Thai Nguyen are being in a period of gold population structure, with the workforce accounted for 69,3% of the population That's chances to develop socioeconomy but also are challenges that leaders and planners of the province need special attention to look out Based on analysis of population fluctuations in the period 1999 - 2009, the authors offer some conclusions about the basic characteristics oflhe population of Thai Nguyen province Keywords: Population Dynamic, Distribution, Increase, Thai Nguyen Tel; 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Nguyen nam 1999 va 2009 Nam 1999 047.800 Tdng sd (ngudi) 21.81 Ti le dan thj (%) 25.60 Ti le dan ndng thdn (%) Ngudn; Xir ly lir sd lieu tong ke cita tinh Thdi Nguyen ndm 1999 vd 2009 Nam 2009 127.430... -3.171 6.499 -2.144 Ngudn; Xu ly tit sd lieu long diiu tra ddn sd ndm 1999 vd 2009 IA Miic tang dan so trung binh theI'Iki 1999- 2009 (%) 7,6 32.1 14,7 -3,8 2,2 1,5 5,8 -1,9 4,9 -1,6 Tran Viit Khanh... tudi cda tinh Thai Nguyen nam 1999 va 2009 1999 So lu'ong ' CQ- cau Do tuoi (Ngu'6-1) (%) 1045906 100 0- 14 330974 31.6 61.4 641876 15-59 7.0 73056 60 trcJ len 2009 So lu-ong Co' cau (%) (Ngu'6'1)