LjCH SLf - VAN HOA - XA HOI CHAU AU / Q U n TRINH Dl DDN Till VI6T NAM TRONG 061 CRNH BICN DOI KHI HfiU TORN CRU Sergei V.P.* Nguyen Canh Toan'* Archem CL.*** Roman V.M.**** L61 Tda soan: Bdi viit ndy la mpt phdn kit qud cita Du dn 13-22-09001 (2013-2015) Quy Khoa hpc xa hpi (RGNF) true thupc Tdng thdng Lien bang Nga tdi trg Vien Nghien cie Chdu Au - Vien Hdn ldm Khoa hoc xd hdi Viet Nam vd Vien Nghien ctru Chinh tri - Xd hdi Vien Hdn ldm Khoa hoc Lien bang Nga ciing thiec hien Tom tdt: V&i sd ddn tren 90 trieu ngu&i, Viet Nam la mgt nhirng qudc gia ddng tren the gi&i, cd tiem ndng l&n ve luc lugng lao dpng Ddn so Viet Nam tdng nhanh mpt phdn ldnh thd ciia Viet Nam co the bi thu hep muc nu&c bien ddng cao, dieu ndy cd the se ddn den mpt bp phdn lao dgng phdi di cu Mpt phdn di ddn lao dpng ciia Viet Nam cd the se huang t&i nu&c Nga, Chdu Au - khu vuc cd lich sic lau d&i viec tiep nhgn ngu Viet di cu Tir khoa.- Di ddn, bien ddi hgu, lao dgng, viec ldm, LB Nga, Viet Nam Bien doi hau toan cau dan den lugng thai dioxit-cacbon vao quyen Iam hdu Trdi dat ndng len Neu nhu vdo bien doi di dan lao dgng nhirng nam 1990, Iugng thai hang nam Bien ddi hdu gay thdm hpa thien tang Ien 1,1% thi den nhiing nam 2000 dd la nhien nhu lii,lut, sa mac hda da vd dang 3% Dieu ndy se dan tdi nhieu hau qua khdn tac dgng tdi qua trinh phdt trien kinh te - xa ludng, dd cd nudc bien ddng vd ddn hpi cua nhieu qudc gia tren the gidi Mdt den nhieu vimg lanh thd se bi ngdp lut nhtmg nguyen nhdn chu yeu la lang Nhieu cdng trinh nghien ciru duoc lien hdnh da chi rang, muc nudc bien da dang Vi^rt St liidng dn Vi^n Ha tdm khoa ligc LB Nga len ddc biel nhanh d the ky XX den Ddc " TS, Vl^tt Nghien ciru Clidu Au bi?t tdi cudi the ky XXI, muc nudc d cac dai '"TS Vf^n Hdn ldm khoa hfc LB Nga duong se tdng khodng 35-40cm Nguyen ""PGS.TS Vi^n Hdn ldm khoa ftpcLB fVga 48 NGHIEN COU CHAU AU - EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW N°8 (167).2014 nhan co bdn Id su dm len ciia Trai dat Idm lan bdng d Bac cue va Nam cue Theo cdc kel qud ciia md hinh hau, cdc sd lieu quan trac ciia ve tinh va nhijng quan h-dc thuy van, myc nudc bien tang khdng ddng deu tren the gidi Mpl bdo cao dac biel ve bien ddi hdu ciia nhdm chuyen gia ciia chinh phu cac nudc tren the gidi da dy dodn rdng, den giira ndm 2090, muc nudc cac dai duong se dang cao hon mirc nam 1990 tir 0,22 den 0,44m vd se tdng them khoang 4mm mdi ndm Tdt cd cdc dieu ndy se dan tdi viec gidm bdt cdc dia bdn cu tni truyen thdng, gidm viec lam, ddy manh nhu cau di cu gdy nhirng he lyy chinh trj - xa hdi La mdt khu vyc chiu nhieu lac dgng ciia viec bien ddi hdu, du bao cac nudc Ddng Nam A va Nam A cd se nhieu vimg lanh thd hi ngap bdi nudc bien dang, Viet Nam la mpl nhirng nudc de hi tdn thuong nhdt Nhirng ngbien cuu cua chiing ldi ve Viet Nam se dua biic tranh tdng the nhu sau: Ndm 2011, dan sd Viet Nam Id 87,8 trieu ngudi (diing thii 13 tren the gidi), mat dp 270 ngudi/km Mac dii chinh sach sinh de cd ke hoach cua nhd nudc Viet Nam dang Id cd kel qua va nhin chung tdc phat trien dan sd cd giam nhung dan sd ciia Viet Nam vdn tang hon 20 trieu ngudi 20 ndm (1990-2010) Theo du bao, neu nudc bien dang d miic trung binh Id 78-95cm, thi d cac viing ven bien ciia Viet Nam se Id 105cm Se cd tinh ven bien cd nguy co hi nhan chim, gan 40% dien tich ddng bang sdng Mekong, hom 10% dien tich ddng bang sdng Hdng vd Quang Ninh bi ngap Hdu qua cua viec lang si lugng cac tran Iii lyt Id Viet Nam se hi mdt 5% lanh thd Viet Nam se phai gdnh chiu cdc vdn dl kinh te ldn nhu: GDP giam 10%, sdn xuat ndng nghiep bi cat gidm 7%, ton thdt ve lua gao (loai luang thuc chinh cua ngudi Viet) la trieu tdn, 11% nhd d, gdn 4% dudng sat, 9% dudng bd ciia he Ihdng giao thong qudc gia, 12% dudng giao thdng lien tinh se bi nhdn chim vd phd hiiy Tat cd nhimg van de se dan tdi nguy co khung hodng kinh te - xa hdi ldn Ro rang se co mot he luy xdy lai Viet Nam Id di dan bdt ddc di bien ddi hau, vdn phai tinh den sd ddn, ldc dp tang dan sd va mat dp dan cu ciia dat nudc Viec di cu cua ngudi dan sang cac khu vuc khac cua ddi nudc va cd the den nhirng qudc gia khac Id tat yeu Cd khoang 38% dan sd tai cac tinh ddng bang sdng Ciru Long, gdn 9% ddn cu ddng bdng sdng Hong va Quang Ninh, gdn 9% dan cu cdc linh ven bien mien Trung va khoang 7% dan sd thdnh phd Hd Chi Minh cdn phdi di chuyen Khong chi cd hang nghin, md la hdng trieu ngudi budc phdi di cu Cdc viing ldnh thd ven bien ciia Vi?t Nam hi ngdp lyt se dan tdi mpl cudc di dan vdi quy md ldn Vi the, van de khdng chi Q/ud Mnh di tidn 49 mang tinh eye bg, khudn khd mdt ddt nudc, ma cdn cd y nghTa tdi quan trgng d cdp dp qudc te Ddng ngudi di cu vi Iy hdu tir Viet Nam cd Ihl se de dga cdc vdn dl dan sd vd kinh le - xa hdi d cac nudc tilp nhdn hg neu nhirng nudc ndy khdng sdn sang ddi mat vdi nhiing vdn dl dd Sir phdt trien dan so hien cua Viet Nam Tir nam 1990 den 2010, dan sd Viel Nam da ldng them 20,7 trieu ngudi, dua t5ng sd ddn len 87,8 trieu ngudi so vdi 67,1 trieu ngudi ndm 1990 Du bdo den nam 2015, ddn s6 Viet Nam ldng len 92,1 trieu ngudi, xlp Trong bai nghien ciiu nay, chiing tdi thii 15 tren the gidi Tuy nhien, qua dua gid thiel ddng ngudi di cu vao Lien bang trinh nghien cihi cho thdy, nhip dp tang dan Nga, mdt nhirng nudc thupc danh sdch sd cua Viet Nam khdng deu, cd dau hieu hdng ddu danh cho di dan hien nay, ciing nhu giam ddn dudi miic 90 trieu va dang gia di ddt nudc trudc day da cd truyin Ihong nhanh (xem Bieu dd \) Giai doan tir 1990 tiep nhdn ngudi Viet Nam sang hgc tap lao din 1995 cd cac chi sd ldn nhdt, tang gdn dpng Hon niia, trudc tiem nang di cu ciia trieu ngudi Tir nam 2010, dan sd ly nhien lai Viet Nam den Nga vd cdc nudc khdc, trudc Viet Nam dan dugc kiem chl va gidm ddn het la cac nudc Ddng Nam A, Viel Nam va (Xem them Bang 1) Ket qud gidm mdt cdc nudccan phdi sdn sang don nhdn cac linh phdn tac dpng ciia chinh sach ke hoach hudng cd the xdy ra, neu khdng dong ngudi hda gia dinh ciia Chinh phii Viet Nam di cu ldng Ien cd the lam trdm trpng them tinh Irang di dan Bimg 1: Cac chi so cff ban cua qua trinh phat trien dan so Viet Nam tir 1990 den 2010' Nam 1990 Dan 67,120 so 1995 74,008 Dan so trung binh hang nam (trieu nguoi; 2000 2005 2010 2011 2012 2013 78,758 83,161 87,848 87,840 88,979 90,1710* 2014 2015 91,500** 92,100** •Nhan Dan dien tii, Ngay 01/11/2013: Cong ddn thu 90 trieu cita Viet Nam chao doi, hltp://www.nhandan.com.vn/suckhoe/tin-tuc/item/21549702-c%C3%B4ng-d%C3%A2nth%El %BB%A9-90-tri%El %BB%87u-c%El %BB%A7a-vi%El %BB%87t-namch%C3%A0o-%C4%91%El%BB%9Di.html, lai 26/8/2014 * , » * , * • * : uoc tinh ^ Slatistical Yearbook for Asia and the Pacific 20! I Mn\lti 149 Nations Publication J^e E II.II.F.I 50 NCHIEN COrU CHAU AU - EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW N°8 (1671.2014 Ti le tang dan s6 (%) 1990-1995 1995-2000 2000-2005 2005-2010 2010-2015 2,0 1,2 1,1 1,1 1,05*** Ngudn: Giang Thanh Long, Tan diing ca hdi ddn sd "vdng " & Viet Nam Ca hdi vd thd thiec Tap chi UNFPA/Quy Ddn sd Lien hgp qudc, Hd Ndi, thdng 12/2010, trang 28-29 Tong cue Ddn sd & Ke hoach hoa gia dinh Ket qud thuc hien muc tieu, chi tieu quoc gia hltp://www.gopfp.gov.vn Truy cap 25 thang nam 2014 Tdng cue Thdng ke, Dien tich, ddn so vd mat ddn sd cdc ndm 2010-2015 phdn theo dja phuang vd Ddn so trung binh phdn theo gi&i tinh tie ndm 1990-2015 "The World Factbook: Vietnam" CIA Truy cap 25 thang nam 2014 *** udc tinh Bieu Dan s6 Viet Nam 1950 - 2010 va du- bao &in nam 2100 110000 100000 aoooo ^ 70000 31 e o D o o ~ 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 Mam I 111 „.«P , * - *- ,*- ,ô.ãã j P " j^-ằ ^ôwằ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ' ^ ^ ^ Nguon: Nguyin Van Tuan, Ddn so Viet Nam dang gia nhanh, Vien Nghien cum Y khoa Garvan, chuyen gia nghien cihi cao cap cua Uy hoi Nghien cihi Y khoa va Y tS qu6c gia Uc (NHMRC Senior Research Fellow) Sure khoe & Doi s6ng, bao dien tit ca quan ngon luan ciiaBoYtS, 01/11/2013 Giai doan 1990-2010, t6c do thi hoa o Viet Nam tang dang ke va s6 dan thi tang, du vay t6c do thi hoa ciia Viet Nam van thap, van co gan 70% dan s6 hien van sinh song, lam viec nong thon Co c^u d? cua dan s5 Viet Nam nhu sau: 0-14 tuoi: 24,3% (nam: 11.946.656; nB: 10.800.602); Q/ua Inull dl dan 51 15-24 tuoi: 17,8% (nam: 8.598.360; nCr: 8.023.377); Nghien cmi tu nam 1990 den 2010 cho thdy he sa sinh chung giam d4n Nam 2010, a Viet Nam so la 16,6%o so voi 25-54 tuoi: 44,8% (nam: 20.983.638; 27,3%o nam 1990 He so sinh tdng quat nil: 20.861.243); giai doan nghien cuu cung giam, xudng 55-64 tu6i: 7,4% {nam:3.149.494; nu: l,8%o/nam 2010 so voi 3,2%o/nam 1990 3.763.309); Viet Nam, he so tu vong chung tinh dSn nam 65 tu6i trd len: 5,6% (nam 2.034.721; 2010 cQng giam dan, xuong 5,2%o so voi ntt 3.260.435) (2014) 6,9%o nam 1990 (Xem them Bdng 2) Bang 2: He so sinh va tu-vong chung cua dan so Viet Nam nhfl-ng nam 1990-2010 Dan so trung binh hang nam (%) Nam / Nuac Viet Nam He so tu chung (%) 1990- 1995- 2000- 20052010 1995 2000 2005 2010 1990- 1995- 2000- 2005- 2010 1995 ?000 2005 2010 27,3 6,9 19,0 17,2 17,2 16,7 5,8 5,3 5,1 5,2 Nguon: Tong cue Dan so & Ke hoacli hoa gia dinh Kel qud thirc hien muc lieu, chi lieu qudc gia http://www,gopfp.gov.vn/home Truy cap 25 thang nam 2014 He sd tu vong tre d Viet Nam, giai doan dugc nghien cuu cung gidm xuong: nam 2009 Id 19%o so vdi 39%o nam 1990 Trong giai doan nay, luoi thg ciia ngudi Viet Nam cung tdng Ien Tudi thg cua dan dng Viet Nam nam 2010 la 72,3 tudi so vdi 69,6 tudi ndm 1990; cua phu nil la 76,2 luoi ndm 2010 so vdi 69,6 tu6i nam 1990 Giai doan 1990 - 2010, so lugng nam gidi ctia Vi^t Nam lang len ddi chiit, klii sd Iugng phu nu lai giam Nhu vdy, d Viet Nam, cu 100 phu nir thi chi cd 98 nam gidi (Xem them Bdng 3) Bdng 3: He so tuong quan ve gioi d Viet Nam nhiing nam 1990 - 2010 Nam Tile Tucmg quan ve giai, sd nam gidi tren 100% nu gidi 2005 1990 1995 2000 95 97 97 96 2010 98 Ngudn: Statistical Yearbook for Asia and tlie Pacific 2011 United Nations Publication Kb E.ll.II.F.l.-2011,trangl47-149 Giai doan 1980 - 2010, dan sd Viet '"^' d™ 14, tinh ddn nam 2011, giam di Nam dupc chia theo nhdm tudi, cOng cd ^^''S ^^- n™ 2011 chi chidm 25,2% so vdi 41,7% nam 1980 Nhdm cd dd ludi lit 15 nh&ng thay ddi rd ret Bp phan dan cu cd dp 52 NGHIEN CijrU CHAU AU - EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW N°8 {167).2014 64, tdng Ien 69,3% so vdi 53,3% ndm 1980 Bp phan ddn cu tren 65 tudi tdng tir 5,0% ndm 1980 Ien 5,5% vao nam 2011 DiSu cho thdy ddn sd Viet Nam cd xu hudng gid di, mgt su bat lgi cho ngudn Iao ddng tucmg Iai Tuy nhien, bien lai cau tnic tudi - gidi tinh cua dan sd Viet Nam van luong d6i tre, tao ca sd cho su phdt trien ndng ddng Ihi trudng lao dgng cdng nghiep mdi md (chiem 48,4% nam 2011, nam 2000 chi^m 65,3% tdng sd viec lam)^ Lao dpng cong nghiep: Sd Iugng lao dgng sdn xudt cdng nghiep thap hem so vdi Iao ddng ndng nghiep, nhung nlu so sanh cdu tnic viec Idm ndm 1996 va ndm 2011 se thdy ro la Viet Nam dang hudng tdi cdng nghiep hda va Cac y£u td nhan khau hoc su- cang xuat hien nhirng ddc diem ciia mgt nudc cdng nghiep hda Mdt bg phan dan cir phat triln thi truong lao dong d Viet Nam ndng ddng ve kinh te dang chuyen sang san Lao dpng nong nghiep: Dan sd ciia Viel xudt cdng nghiep, xay dung , ITnh vuc Nam ldng khd nlianh, sau 50 ndm (1950chilm ldi 30,3% viec ldm nam 2011, mac dii 2000), dan so lang gdn ldn va tiep luc ldng ndm 1996 mdi chi chiem 19,4% Nhu vay tir ndm 2000 din (Xem them Bieu 1) Viet Nam hien dang cd su chuyen dich Gia tang ddn sd nhanh Id mgt nhimg ca cau lao ddng O cac Ihanh phd ldn cua nguyen nhdn Idm cho ngudi lao ddng ngdy Viel Nam (nhu Ha Ngi, Hd Chi Minh va cac cang khd lim viec lam Irong nen kinh le thdnh phd ldn khac) ca cdu viec Iam cd xu dang vua phdi dam bao tdng Irudng vira phdi hudng mang ddc diem "hdu cdng nghiep" va lien hdnh cai each ca cau kinh te Lao dgng cao ban d cdc vimg khdc cua ddi nudc CO viec lam d Viel Nam linh vuc san Cung cdn khdng dinh la thdi gian gdn ddy chi xudt chilm 80,6% nam 1996 vd 69,7% ndm sd that nghiep d Viel Nam khdng cao (nam 2011, cao hem ban so vdi nhieu qudc gia tren 2008 chilm 2,4% long sd siic lao dgng, thi gidi^, dd luc lugng Iao ddng nam 2011 chi la 2%) Mac du dat hieu qua ndng nghiep van chiem ti Ie cao Tuy nhien, viec giam sd ngudi that nghiep, dSc ti le ciing dang gidm ddn he qua cua biet viec phdt trien "tu tim kiem viec thi hda va phat trien them cac khu cong lam" d cdc thdnh phd, Viet Nam van la dat nghiep nudc ngoai Ket qud la ndng dan mdt rudng dat, thdnh phd lam nhiing cdng viec phd thong hoac lam cdng nhan d cdc khu ^ Stalistical Yearbook for Asia and the Pacific 2011, ^ The World bank, Vietnam, East Asia & Pacific (developing only) http://data.worldbank.0rg/country/vietna1n#cp_wd1, Tai neay 25/8/2014 ESCAP, trang 222 * N^n kinh ti chuyen tir cong nghiep che biSn la try cot sang dich vu lam try cpt, va tryc cong ngh$, tri thirc lam chii dao va cac chuyen gia lanh ngh^, ki thuat vien chi^m uu the Thuat ngCf "nfin kinh tS h?u cong nghifp" ve co ban dong nghTa vdi thu§t ngO "doi m(M n^n kinh tfi" QffA /jv/f/t di dau 53 nudc cd nhu cau tim kiem viec ldm d nudc nan nhan ciia budn ban ngudi va cu dan cdc ngodi kha cao Cue quan ly Lao ddng Viet tinh gidp bien gidi di cu tu sang cdc nudc Nam d nudc ngodi, Bd Lao ddng - Thuong ldng gieng Ndm 2010, mac dii chiu tdc dgng binh va Xa hdi cho biel, nam 2013 cd 88.000 cua khung hodng kinh le nhung lugng kieu ngudi va chi lieu nam 2014 la se dua ban hdi ngudi Viet Nam di cu gui ve nudc 90.000 ngudi di lam viec d nudc ngodi, tang vdn dat khodng li USD Nhirng qudc gia khodng 5.000 chi lieu so vdi ndm 2013 Nhu chinh ngudi di cu Viet Nam lira chgn Id: Hoa v^y, ro rdng Viet Nam la qudc gia cd liem Ky, nang di dan vd chCi yeu vi muc dich viec ldm Di dan ciia Viet Nam nirdc ngoai Nhdt Ban, Australia, Canada, Campuehia, Anh, Thai Lan Dong di cu vdo Viet Nam khdng ldn so vdi ddng di cu nudc ngoai, nam 2010 la 69,3 nghin ngudi, Cdc chuang trinh qudc gia giai quyet dd CO 3,4% Id ngudi ti nan viec lam da Ihu dugc nhirng ket qua dang khich le nhung van chua ddp ung dugc nhu cau, quy luat cung - cdu ve sue lao dgng qu6c le, chenh lech ve sir phdi trien, khoang each gidu ngheo, thu nhap giira Viet Nam va cdc nudc khu vuc va the gidi la nhirng nhdn td thiic ddy va ldi keo ngudi ddn tim CO hgi mdi d nudc ngoai Theo sd lieu Ihdng ke, hien cd khodng hon trieu ngudi Viel Nam dang dang sinh s6ng, lam viec, hgc lap tai 103 qudc gia va viing ldnh thd Trong dd, hon 80% d tai cac nudc cdng nghiep phat trien; 3,2 trieu ngudi Di cu tir Viet Nam vdo Nga da cd lich sir lau ddi, ddc biel Id di cu lim viec ldm Trong sd cac nudc cdeh xa Nga ve bien gidi, Viet Nam diing vi tri thu hai ve so ngudi nhdp cu vao Nga Theo so lieu, nam 2011, da CO 3.294 ngudi Viel Nam nhdp cu vdo Nga' Klii nhap cdnh vdo Nga, cac cdng dan Viet Nam ghi vao td khai cua hdi quan Nga cd muc dich chinh: cd nhan, cdng viec vd du lich Cong ddn Viet Nam nhap cdnh vao Nga vi muc dich cdng viec chiem uu the (Xem them Bdng 4) CO quy che cu trii ddi ban; Iren 500.000 ngudi lao ddng lam viec cd thdi ban lai hon 40 nudc va viing ldnh tho; hang chuc nghin hgc sinh, sinb vien, nghien cuu sinh, cgng tdc vien dang hgc lap, tdm viec d nudc ngoai; gdn 300.000 nghin, chii yeu la phu nir kit hdn vdi ngudi nude ngodi; ngoai chua kl din mgt so Iugng khdng nhd ngudi Viet Nam sinh sdng bat hgp phap d cdc nudc, la Tham luan ciia Cue Lanh sir, Bao cao long qiuiii hoai dong di cir ciia cong dan Viel Nam nuac ngodi tai "Hpi nghi ve Di cu quoc le, xay dyng va quan ly dii heu cho hoach dinh chinh sach", Ha NQI, - / / 1 Oejiepa.ribnaH TaMO/Keiuiaji cjiyjKGa, TaMuMcnnait cinannicinuKa - Miwpanmbi UJ Bbcmiiana a fucciiio hllp://www customs ru/ Tai 25/8/2014 54 NGHIEN CCU CHAU AU - EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW N°a (167).2014 Bdng 4: Co* cau dong ngirdi nhap cirvao Nga theo cac muc dich khac tir 2007-2011 (%) Muc dich nhap cir v^o Nea ^ ^ /^ ^ / Ngu-ffi nhap cu* tir ,,, Nam ''Cong tac Du lich Viec rieng Nai thudng trii Qua cdnh Nhan vien phuc vu Tong Ngu-ol nhap cir Viet Nam vao Nga tir cac 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 nuo'C vao Nga 59,1 2,4 19,7 0,3 6,8 11,7 100,0 63,8 1,9 18,2 0,2 6,5 9,4 100,0 52,0 5,0 26,8 0,1 2,6 13,5 100,0 52,1 10,2 26,1 0,1 0,1 11,4 100,0 46,2 5,0 34,3 0,3 0,4 12,8 100,0 21,9 9,4 59,6 0,1 1,2 7,8 100,0 Ngudn: e.aepajibHaa TaMoaceHHaa cjiyscda, ToAtooiceHHaa cmamucmuKa - Muzpanmbi m BbemHOMa e Poccujo hllp://wwv/.cusloms.ru/ Tai 25/8/2014 Cdc sd lieu dieu tra nam 2010 khang dinh ITnh vuc san xudt dang tang len Da phdn rdng, phdn ldn ngudi di cu tu Viet Nam nhirng ngudi Viet Nam dang sdng va lam hudng tdi cac viing phia Tay ciia nudc Nga viec lai Nga den tir mien Bde Viet Nam Phan Idn tgc ngudi Viet Nam sinh sdng d trung ldm nudc cgng hda (45%) va Iuu vuc sdng Vonga (21%) Hien chua cd sd lieu chinh xdc ve sd ngudi Viet Nam tai Nga Theo cdc sd lieu dieu tra dan sd nam 2002, tai Nga cd khodng 26 nghin ngudi Viet Nam sinh sdng, cdn theo cdc so lieu dieu tra ndm 2010, sd ndy gidm xudng cdn 14 nghin ngudi Thuc le sd ndy ldn han rat nhieu Theo ddnh gid ciia chiing tdi, sd ndy co the ldi 100-150 nghin ngudi Hien nay, phdn ldn ngudi Viet Nam sinh sdng va lam viec lai Matxccrva, Stavropon, Bascorlopxtan, Vongagrat, Xveriop, viing Khabarop vd mdt sd vimg khac niia cua Nga C) thii dd cd cac td bao va tap cbi xudl bdn bdng lieng Viet, cd kenh truyen hinh ve linh ciia Viet Nam phdt cdc chuang trinh ddnh cho cdng ddn Viel Nam dang sinh sdng tai Nga Ngudi Viet Nam chii yeu hgc tap, budn bdn, lam ndng nghiep, dich vu nhd hang Vice ldm Theo cdc sd lieu cua Cue Thdng ke Lien bang Nga (Rosstal), sd ngudi di cu tir Viet Nam thudng tni tai Nga dao dgng tir vai chuc den vdi tram ngudi mdt nam, ngoai ciing cd the quan sdt thdy su gia tdng cda nhirng ngudi nhdp cu trai phep vao cdc nam 1997 vd 1998 Can phdi ndi rdng, su gia tdng ddng nhap cu tir Viel Nam vao Nga da d^t ldi 921 ngudi nam 2009, 889 ngudi ndm 2010 Khoang 30.000 i cdng ddn Viet Nam Iam viec bat hgp phap vd cd kha nang lam viec bdt hgp phap d Nga (niu nhu khdng khong nhdn dugc quota nhdp cu lao ddng de dugc tiep tuc gia hgn hpp ddng lao dpng, gidy phep lao dpng vd ddng ky hp khdu theo gidy phep lao ddng) Trong so 30.000 ngudi din Nga cd khodng 10% vdo theo ldi mdi ciia Dai sii qudn Viet Nam lai Nga^ Ngu6i ' Thong bao bao chi FMS cua Nga /CoTpyjiHHK npecc-cjiy)K6hi OMC P, MocKBa, icTBepr, aery era 2013r (itd Irittlt dl dull 55 ViSt Nam di cu vao Nga chu yiu la ngucri di bang Nga, chiim 11,7% siic lao dong nuoc lao dpng Theo s6 lieu ciia FMS, nam 2010 ngoai Song, den nam 2011 chi 10,9 da CO 46 nghin giay phep dugc cap cho cac nghin ngucri Viet Nam co giay phep Iao dong cong dan Viet Nam dSn lam viec tai Lien tai Nga, chiim 1,1% fXem//lera 5o;ig J / Bang 5: So laang cong dan nu'O'c ngoai lam vice tai Nga cac nam 2000-2010 (nghin ngu&i) 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Viet Nam 13,3 55,6 69,1 79,8 95,2 97,5 46,0 Trung Quoc 106,8 343,7 537,7 1152,8 1780,0 1645,1 1246,9 Tir cac nu'O'c khac 106,9 358,7 476,1 563,8 545,0 577,3 392,0 TSng 213,3 702,5 1.014,0 1.717,1 2.425,9 2.223,6 Nguon: OcAepantHaa MHrpauHOHnaji Cjiyacda Onmpbimbie 2010 1.640,8 danubie htlp://www.fms.gov.ru/opendata/ Tai 27.8.2014 Bdng 6: So sinh vien nudc ngoai theo hoc bac dai hoc d Nga (tinh vdo ddu ndm hpc, nghin ngu&i) 2007-2008 2008-2009 ?009-2010 2010-2011 2011-2012 Viet Nam 3,5 3,1 2,6 2,4 2,5 SGN, Baltic, Gruzia 92,5 85,2 107,8 116,7 121,8 Tong so sinh vi§n nu'o'C ngoai 129,6 122,1 145,9 153,8 188,4 Ngudn: A Jl APEObEB, O LUEPErM MnocmpauHbie cmydeumbi epoccuiiCKUX (jyjax.LIeHTpa couHOJiorHHccKHx Hccjie^oBaHHid MMHodpnayKH, MocKsa, 2014 r Ndm 2011, Viet Nam giiJ vi tri tbu tu viec di dan Ngay tir thai Lien Xo, viec di cu sd cdc nudc cd ngudi Iuu tni bat hgp vi muc dich bgc tap va lao dgng da dien phap vi muc dich lao dgng tai Nga, sau giira hai nudc Mac dii ti le (con sd) di cu tir Trung Qudc, CHDCND Trieu Tien vd Thd Viel Nam hien chua dugc thong ke, va Viet NhT Cdn ndm 2010, theo cdc sd lieu thong Nam ndm kha xa nudc Nga, nhung cac ddng ke, Vi?t Nam dimg vi tri thii hai sau Trung di cu vdn tiep tuc dugc hinh va quan Qudc Tuy v^y, ddi vdi Nga, Viet Nam van he qua lai irong ITnh vuc lao dgng va hgc tap Id ngudi ddng hanh khd quan trgng vdn dang dugc thuc hien 56 NGHIEN COU CHAU AU - EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW N°8 (167).2014 Di cu vi muc dich hpc tap tir Viet Nam kinh te - xa hdi cd the xdy chinh la each den Nga Theo sd lieu ciia Bd Gido due va tiep can nham cdnh bdo khimg hodng kinh te Khoa hgc Lien bang Nga, nam 2011-2012, - xa hdi cua cac viing lanh thd bi anh hudng sinh vien Viet Nam va Malaysia dimg vi tri thii ciia bien ddi hdu ciing nhu ngan chan ba sd cdc nudc d each xa Nga den hgc hiem hga di dan nudc ngodi khdng mong tap So sinh vien Viet Nam tai Nga khodng 2,5 mudn cd the xdy nghin ngudi, chiem 6,8% so sinh vien den tir Tai lieu t h a m khao chinh cdc nudc Ndm 2010, sd sinh vien dugc nhdn vao hgc tai cac trudng dai hgc d Nga tang ban POCCHHCKHHI CTaTHCTHHCCKHH 300 ngudi so vdi nam trudc Nhung nhin eateroflHHK 2 : C j a r c d / P o c c T a i - M., chung, sinh vien Viel Nam tai Nga dang gidm 2011 Nlu so vdi ndm 2007/2008, ndm 2011/2012 sd T p y A H saHflTOCTb B P O C C H H 2011 sinh vien Viet Nam da gidm 1.000 ngudi CraTHCTHHecKHii (Xem them Bdng 6) cjiy)K6a rocy;iapcTBeHHOfl cxaTHCTHKH - M., cSopHUK / Oe^iepajifcHafl 2011 Cd the ndi, qua trinh toan cau hda vd bien ddi hdu Id nhdn td khach quan, gdp phdn Ihiic ddy di cu, nhdp cu quoc te va Dd Id mdt thuc te khdch quan vd khdng mdt ^HCJieHHOCTb H MHrpauHfl HacejieHHfl PoccHiicKOH OeaepauHH Oe^iepajifcHaa cjiyacda B 2011 roay / rocyztapcTeeHHoil CiaTHCTHKH.-M., 2 qudc gia binh thudng ndo cd the cudng lai, cd Viet Nam va LB Nga Vi vdy, ldt cd cdc qudc gia cd di cu va cdc qudc gia co ngudi nhap cu deu cd chinh sdch phii hgp de ddm bdo ddt nudc minh khdng xao Iron hodc bj lac dgng xdu den qua trinh phdt trien kinh te - xa hdi Mat khdc, tat ca cdc qudc gia co di cu va cdc quoc gia cd ngudi nhap cu neu khong cd chinh sach diing dan thi khdng the khong che dong ngudi di cu vd nlidp cu, dac biel dong ngudi ay cd the lang Ien nhanh chong dudi lac ddng xau cua bien ddi hau Viet Nam Id qudc gia se chiu dnh hudng ndng ne ve thien lai, bao lut vd nudc bien dang cao nhu da ndi d tren Vi thi, vi lgi ich ciia chinh Viet Nam cung nhu ciia todn the cdng ddng the gidi, viec dua nhtmg ddnh gia cdc hau qua di ddn d at tir cac tinh ven bien Viet Nam, dua cdc md hinh ciia cac hien lugng, qud Irinh di dan va CLA World blips://www cia gov Faclbook, Factbook 2012, OECD 2012 Migration and Remittances Factbook 201 J The Worid Bank 2011 Statistical Yearbook for Asia and the Pacific 2011 United Nations Publication N° E.11.II.F.1.-2011 World Population to 2300 United Nations New York, 2004 Tham luan cua Cue Lanh su, Bdo cdo long quan hogt ddng di cu cua cong ddn Viet Nam nu&c ngodi tai "Hdi nghi vl Di cu qudc le, xay dung va quan ly dir lieu cho hoach dinh chinh sach", Hd Ndi, 01 02/6/2011 10 Statistical Yearbook for Asia and the Pacific 2011 ESCAP ... xuong: nam 2009 Id 19%o so vdi 39%o nam 1990 Trong giai doan nay, luoi thg ciia ngudi Viet Nam cung tdng Ien Tudi thg cua dan dng Viet Nam nam 2010 la 72,3 tudi so vdi 69,6 tudi ndm 1990; cua phu nil... ban hdi ngudi Viet Nam di cu gui ve nudc 90.000 ngudi di lam viec d nudc ngodi, tang vdn dat khodng li USD Nhirng qudc gia khodng 5.000 chi lieu so vdi ndm 2013 Nhu chinh ngudi di cu Viet Nam. .. lau ddi, ddc biel Id di cu lim viec ldm Trong sd cac nudc cdeh xa Nga ve bien gidi, Viet Nam diing vi tri thu hai ve so ngudi nhdp cu vao Nga Theo so lieu, nam 2011, da CO 3.294 ngudi Viel Nam