Nghien citu khoa hgc CANH TRANH SU^C MANH QUAN SlT (J KHU VUC DONG BAC A TRGNG NHOfNG NAM GAN DAY VA DU BAG (Tiep theo ky trudc) NeUftHNGgCNGHlCp- Tdm tat: Trong nhOng ndm gdn ddy, cdc nuac thudc khu vice Chdu A ndi chung vd Ddng Bdc A ndi rieng da khong ngimg gia tdng siic mgnh qudn su Diiu ndy vd hinh trung tgo mgt cudc chgy dua vU trang va tdc dgng din chinh tri va an ninh khu vice Nguyen nhdn ndo ddn din viic cdc nudc chgy dim vU trang, hi qud cua viic cdc nudc gia tdng siic mgnh qudn s\e Id gi va tuang lai su cgnh tranh siic mgnh ndy se diin biin nhu thi ndo? Bdi viit di cap din thuc trgng, nguyen nhdn cua vi?c gia tdng siic mgnh qudn su cua cdc nudc khu vuc Ddng Bdc A ddng thdi dua du bdo ve xu hudng cgnh tranh sue mgnh qudn jir trang tuang lai a khu vi^c ndy Tir khda: Ddng Bde A, Cjnh tranh, Qudn su, Chinh sdch, Ngan sdch Qudc phdng Nguydn nhSn canh tranh sire manh qUan sir Thit nhdt: Cdc quoc gia khu vuc Dong Bdc A muon khdng dinh vi thi ciia minh vd cgnh trgnh vdi vi tdm dnh hudng khu vtec cUng nhu trin the giai Trudc hdt phdi kd ddn Trung Qude, nudc khdng nhiing mudn khdng dinh vi thd khu v\tc ma edn mudn khdng dinh vi thd ddi trpng vdi sidu eudng thd gidi Id My vd tidn xa hon Id vupt My dd trd thdnh cudng qudc sd I thd gidi Su trdi day ciia Trung Qudc cd vd nhu dang qua trinh thvc hidn "dai chidn lupc" trd thdnh Idnh dao thd gidi Vide trSi day cua Trung Qudc dd mang lai nhiing lo du eho cde nude ldng gidng xung quanh He qua Id cdc nudc ddy nhanh vipc tdng cudng sire manh qudn SV nhdm ddi phd vdi nhitng tmh hudng xiu cd the xdy tir phia Trung Qude d mdt khia esinh nao dd ed thd ndi rang Trung Qude dd chdm ngdi cho cudc chay dua sire manh quan su d khu v\rc Ddng Bdc A ndi ridng va Chdu A ndi chung Tidp ddn la Nhat Bdn Nhdt Ban dang mudn liy lai vi thd cua minh khu vuc va trdn thd gidi, mudn eanh tranh tdm dnh hudng vdi Trung Qudc khu vuc Ddng A De dJit dupc nhUng muc tidu dd, Nhdt Bdn cdn cd sue manh eiia mpt eudng qudc dd cd tidng ndi nhit dinh cdng ddng qudc td Nudc dd vd dang trdn eon dudng trd thdnh "mpt qude gia binh thudng" ndn dd cd nhiing ddng thdi chuin bi cho vi^e siia ddi hidn phap, phat tridn qudn dpi Nhdt Ban da thdng qua cdc dao luat dd md dudng cho vide sua ddi hidn phap, trung cdu ddn y vd sira doi hidn phap, ndi ldng lenh eim xuit khdu vii dd thue hifn vide hipn dai hda qudn dpi ddc bidt la khdng quan vd hdi qudn, tdng eudng kha ndng can du va ddi phd vdi ThS Vi|n Nghi6n ciiu Dong Bic A 14 NGHIEN COu OdNG B^C A l61(167) 1-2015 Nghien citu khoa hoc edc thach thuc khu vuc, thuc day khd ndng xuit khiu vii vd mdi day (I/7/20I4) Id vide gidi thich lai hidn phdp cho phep Lire lupng phdng vd ciia nude cd thd thuc hidn quydn phdng vd tap thd vdi edc ddng minh Nhiing ddng thai kdt hpp vdi site manh qude phdng san ed va tidm l\rc kinh td eung nhu ky thudt cao ciia Nhdt Ban dd gdy su nghi ngd va lo sp eua edc nude khu vue vd kha ndng Nhdt Ban quay trd lai vdi chu nghia qudn phidt thdi trudc Chidn tranh The gidi Idn thir hai Nhiing su Io ngai dd trd nhirng nguydn nhdn thiie ddy cdc nude khu vuc tdng cudng sire manh qudn su dd dd phdng Tidp theo la Tridu Tidn Nudc ndy ludn mudn khdng djnh vi thd cudng qude qudn su eiia minh khdng chi khu vuc ma cdn cd trdn thd gidi Vdi mue dich dd, hp da lam mpi each dd chiing td vdi thd gidi vd svr cudng thjnh ciia nudc minh ITnh vuc qudn su thdng qua cac vu thu h?t nhdn va tdn lua Chinh vide thii hjt nhdn, tdn lira Id nguydn nhdn lam cho edc nudc khde khu vuc phdi tang cudng phdng thii bdng each nang cip edc trang thidt bj qudn su Chdng han nhu Nhdt Ban phai bd tri he thdng phdng thu tdn Ida dd ddi phd vdi mdi de dpa tir Tridu Tidn cdn Hdn Qudc thi phdi tang cudng siic manh qudn su cd khdng qudn vd hdi qudn Ngoai nhung didu dd edp d trdn thi mdt vin Sk ntta cung cdn phai ndi ddn dd Id tinh thin dan tpc dang ndi len d khu vuc Ddng Bdc A Khi tinh thin ddn tdc duoc dd cao thi vdn dd lanh thd sd dupc cac nude quan tdm NGHIEN Cdru OONG BAC fl s61(167) I-20I5 Day la mdt nhiing ly khidn tranh chdp lanh thd gitta cac nude thdi gian ndy trd vin dd ndng khu vuc Cdc nudc tranh chip vdi vi "thi dipn qude gia", vi mudn khdng dinh vj thd cua nudc minh khu vuc, khdng mudn minh trd ndn ydu thd hon so vdi nudc khde Nhiing ttanh chdp ndy cung Id nguydn nhdn dd cac nudc khu vuc canh tranh sire mgnh qudn sir vdi nhau, coi dd nhu bai dd dpa dim va mac ed vdi cdc tranh chap song phuong hay da phuong Tha hai: Tdc dgng cita vi?c Trung Qudc trdi day vd My trd lgi Chdu A: Vide Trung Qudc trdi day, ehuydn tir phuong chdm "gidu minh chd thdi" sang hdnh ddng quydt dodn hon cdc vdn dd qude td va khu vuc, dac bidt 14 ehuydn tir thai dp dn hda sang ciing ran cae ttanh chdp vd bidn dao vdi cdc nudc Ddng A da gdy s\r de dpa an ninh ddi vdi cac nudc ttong khu vuc Ddng Bic A Bdn cgnh dd s\f trd lai Chdu A cua My cdng gdy Io ngai cho cac nudc ttong khu vuc Ddp lai, ede nudc vd vung lanh thd d Ddng Bae A chu truong gia tang sue mgnh qudn s\r dd ddm bao an ninh cho nudc minh Sir quay trd lai Chdu A cua My da tac ddng ddn an ninh, chinh trj khu vuc, lam gia tdng chay dua qudn su Trung - My vd tao sir nghi ngai, ngd vuc ldn gitta cdc nudc ttong khu vuc, ddn ddn sir tdng cudng sire mgnh qudn sir cua cac nude Dd kidm ehd Trung Qudc, ngodi vide nd lire tu ban thdn My edn tim each Idi keo cdc nude khu vue Chau A dling vd phia minh My cd xiiy cho thuydt 15 Nghien citu khoa hgc' "mdi de dpa tit Trung Qudc" dd cdc nudc Chdu A Io ldng va cdnh giac vdi su frdi day cua Tnmg (Judc Bdn canh dd My edn the hidn sir can thidp mdt each gian tidp vdo cdc tranh chip ttong khu vuc gitta Trung Qude va edc nudc Ddng A Thic ba: Tinh thi luang nan vi an ninh khu vuc: Khi mdt nudc mudn dam bdo an ninh cho minh da tang cudng sire mgnh qudn su va vd hinh trung didu dd lgi gidm an ninh eua cac nudc lang gieng Dd tang khd ndng an ninh cua minh thi cac nudc lgi tdng cudng sde manh qudn su vd su tdng eudng lai tgo nguy ca cho nudc khac Cu nhu vdy nd sd tgo hidu iing domino vd tdng cudng qudn su va tidm tang mdt cudc chidn ttanh lanh mdi ttong khu v\ic Ddng Bde A Cd thd ndi rdng su nghi ky ldn gitta cdc qudc gia ttong khu vuc da tgo mpt su cgnh tranh ngdm vd sue mgnh qudn su Nhiing didn bidn xdy ttong khu vuc nhu vide Tridu Tidn thu tdn lira vd vu hgt nhdn, sir ttdi day cua Trung Qudc vdi siic mgnh kinh td vd tidm lire qudc phdng, su ddy nhanh qua ttinh ttd thdnh "qudc gia binh thudng" cua Nhdt Bdn khdng chi lam cho cde nudc ttong khu vuc ma cd My d bdn Thai Binh Duong ciing phdi lo ngai Vide hidn dgi hda qudn sir cua qudc gia sd tgo su bdt an cho qudc gia khde, nhdt la ttong tinh trang cac nudc vdn chua hodn todn tin tudng ldn Sir khdng minh bgch ttong cdc chi phi qudn sir cua mdt nude se ehdm ngdi cho phdn irng ddy ehuydn vd vide hidn dai hda qudn dpi cua cdc qudc gia ttong 16 khu vuc Chdng hgn trudng hpp ciia Tnmg Qudc Vdi vipc gia tang nhanh chdng chi phi qudn su ttong nhttng ndm diu thd ky XXI, Trung Qude da gay Io nggi eho khdng chi cde nudc ldng gidng Ddng Bic A ma cd cac nudc d Chdu A - Thdi Binh Ducmg vd thgm chi la ca thd gidi Mae du phia Trung Qudc ludn khing djnh rang vide tdng cudng s6c mgnh qudn su cua nudc ndy chi nhdm muc tidu la dam bdo an ninh, tdng khd ndng phdng thu vd khdng he de dpa ddn lpi ich cua nudc khac Trung Qude ly gidi vd vide tdng mgnh ngdn sdch qude phdng dd hidn dgi hda quan dpi vi cdng nghd qudn sir ciia Trung Qudc lac hdu hon so vdi cdng nghd cua My ndn vide hidn dgi hda quan dpi chi thuin tiiy Id nhdm tang cudng kha ndng phdng vd Tuy nhidn, nhiing chi phi qudn sir ldn vd thidu minh bach da khdng thd thuydt phuc dupc cac nude xung quanh tin ring hp sd khdng bi dnh hudng gi bdi su ddu tu qudc phdng ldn cua Trung Qude Nhiing nudc ndy ludn nghi ngd va sdn sdng ttong tu thd dd phdng Trung Qudc Vdi miic tang chi phi qudc phdng ldn nhu vdy edng thdm thai dp cua Trung Qude ttong nhiing vu va chgm vd ttanh chap lanh thd vdi cac nude ttong khu vuc dd eho thdy Trung Qudc khdng thudn tiiy chi la tdng khd ndng phdng vd cua qudn dpi ma lp rd y bd chu khu vyc Vipc Trung Qudc hidn dgi hda qudn su vdi miic chi tidu qudc phdng ldn dd lam eho Nhdt Bdn hdt sue lo ngai Nhdt Ban cdn td lo nggi vd cde hoat ddng ciia hai qudn Trung Qudc, ddc bidt la cdch xii su cua Trung Qudc ttdn Bidn Ddng Quan didm cua Nhdt Ban NOHIEN Cflu DONG BAC fl s6 1(167) 1-2015 Nghien citu khoa hgc cho rang Trung Qudc da "ddc dodn" ttong each gidi quydt eac ttanh chap ttong khu vuc Nhu vdy, su tdng cudng chi phi qudn su cua Trung Qudc da gdy su nghi ngd tir phia Nhgt Ban Thdm chi gin ddy phia Nhdt Ban cdn xac dinh rd rdng' Trung Qudc vd Tridu Tidn Id cdc thdch thiic quan sy ehinh ma Nhgt Ban phai ddi mdt d Chdu A Khdng chi Nhdt Bdn md cdc nudc ttong khu vuc cd ttanh chip vd khdng ttanh chip vdi Trung Qudc ddu Io nggi vd su ldn mgnh cua nudc He qua tdt ydu ciia vide dd cao cdnh gidc Id tang cudng tidm lye qude phdng, cung cd lidn minh qudc td dd gia tdng khd ndng phdng vd ttong trudng hpp cd nhitng bidn cd xdy Theo dd thi cac nudc ttong khu vye da vd dang didu chinh chinh sach qudc phdng cua minh ciing nhu tich eye thuc diy vide tang cudng siic mgnh qudn sy Khdng ehi Trung Qude ma cd Tridu Tidn eiing lam cho cde nudc ttong khu vye hdt siic lo ngai mde dii phia Tridu Tidn ludn ndi ring ho phdt ttidn vu hat nhan dd tdng cudng khd ndng phdng vd trudc sy tin cdng tir cac thd lye bdn ngodi Mue dich phdt ttidn hat nhan dd dam bao an ninh va gitt viing ddc lap, ehu quydn dan tde Nhung mpt dit nude bi hidm nhu Tridu Tien khdng thd ldm cho cac qudc gia lang gidng vd cdng ddng qudc td ydn tdm vd chuong ttinh hgt nhan cua nudc Didm ndng trdn Ban dao Tridu Tidn ludn ed nguy ea biing phdt, an ninh khu vyc ludn ddt ttong tinh ttang bj de dpa mdi Tridu Tidn cd nhiing dOng thdi gia tdng khd ndng quan sy cua minh Trong trudng hpp ndy, rd rang vide ddm bdo an NGHIEN cdru D N G BflC A s d 1(167) 1-2015 ninh ciia nudc s6 gidm an ninh eda nudc khac vd dd bu lgi sy thidu hyt vd an ninh dd thi cac nudc xung quanh phdi tim cdch tdng cudng an ninh cho minh thdng qua vide ty tang cudng kha nang bdo vd bdng mdt lire lupng quan dpi mgnh hogc nhdp khdu an ninh tir nudc khde Do vdy, ddi vdi mdt qude gia cho du bing each nao dd dam bdo an ninh thi ciing Igi tgo sy thidu hut an ninh cho nudc khde va vdng quay vd tdng eudng dam bao an ninh ma mpt ttong nhiing bidu hidn cda nd Id tdng eudng siic mgnh qudn sy lgi tidp didn Sy vide ndy chi chim diit cd sy hidu tire Id cdn phdi cd bien phap xdy dung ldng tin gitta cdc qudc gia hode ed mpt CO chd kidm sodt an ninh ttong khu vuc Du- bao Trong nhung nam tidp theo, su canh ttanh vd sue mgnh quan sy giua cac nudc ttong khu vyc se vdn tidp tuc, dac bidt la cgnh ttanh vd hai qudn nhung ttanh chdp vd bidn ddo vin tdn tai vd chua ed dau hipu eho thiy sd dupc gidi quydt dn thda Ngupc lgi, thdm chi cdn ed chidu hudng gia tang md in chua ddng sau nhiing ttanh chip dd khdng chi la van dd lpi ieh kinh td md cdn bao ham nhttng ydu td nhu chii quydn dan tdc, vj thd vai trd eung nhu tim dnh hudng ciia qudc gia vd cudi cung la cgnh tranh dnh hudng cua cac nudc ldn Sd di ndi cgnh ttanh qudn sy gitta cac nudc ttong khu vyc Ddng Bac A vdn tidp tuc vi nhung nguydn nhdn din ddn sy canh tranh dd vdn hidn dipn ttong nhOng nam tdi vd chua cd dau hidu cho thdy se mdt di Cu thd la: 17 Nghien citu khoa hgc Thic nhdt, Trung Qudc vdn cho thdy hp vide Iam ndy sd tdc ddng ddn chinh ttj vd an khdng ngimg ddu tu cho qudc phdng dd thyc ninh khu vuc va sd tgo sy nghi ngd cua hidn chidn lupc qudc gia bdt chdp sy nghi cdc nudc xung quanh Didu se thuc day ngd vd lo nggi cda cac nudc ttong khu vye su tang cudng site mgnh qudn su eua cdc vd ttdn thd gidi Theo nhflng cdng bd ttdn nudc ldng gidng vd tao phan img ddy cdc phucmg tidn thdng tin dgi chiing thi ngdn ehuydn vd tang cudng qudn sy ttong khu vyc sach qudc phdng eua Trung Qudc vdn tdng Trudng hpp ciia Trieu Tidn cung tuang tu vd se tdng manh Didu cho thdy ttong Vdi vipc Tridu Tidn kien quydt theo dudi nhiing ndm tidp theo Trung Qudc vdn khdng chuang ttinh phat tridn vii hgt nhdn thi ngimg gia tdng site manh qudn sy cua minh cdc nudc xung quanh sd khdng thd ttdnh Nhttng gi xay khu vue nhung ndm khdi vide bj eudn vdo vdng xody cda tdng ddu thd ky XXI cho thdy su ldn mgnh eiia cudng sire mgnh quan sy chimg ndo van dd Trung Qude la mdt ttong nhiing nguydn hgt nhdn trdn Ban dao Tridu Tien ehua dupc nhan eua cdc cudc cgnh ttanh qudn sy ttong giai quydt Thyc td thi vide giai quydt khung khu vuc ndy Ndi cdch khac, sy trdi dgy ciia hodng hat nhdn trdn Ban dao Tridu Tidn ddn Trung Qude la ngudn kich ddng cho cudc vdn Id bdi todn khd ddi vdi cac nudc cgnh tranh sue mgnh qudn su giua cdc nudc tham gia dam phdn bdn ndi ridng va cdng khu vyc vd hidn ngudn dd vdn cdn ddng qudc td ndi chung Bdi Id, ddy khdng hidn di^n vd thdm chi cdn cd siic kich thich chi don thudn Id vdn dd hat nhdn ciia mpt ldn hon Do vdy, cd the ndi rang cupc cgnh nudc md edn lidn quan den lpi ich chidn lupc tranh sire mgnh qudn su gitta cdc nudc ttong ciia nhidu bdn tham gia dam phan, khu vyc sd vdn cdn tidp didn vd cd thd sd cd cdc cudng qudc ttong khu vyc Do vdy, ehuydn ddn sang theo kidu mdt cupc chidn cudc cgnh tranh siic mgnh quan sy khu tranh lgnh khu vyc Ddng Bdc A, cd vye Ddng Bdc A vdn didn ttong nhiing nghia Id vua cd sy tdng cudng sue mgnh ndm tdi Xu hudng ehi tidu qudc phdng sd qudn sy cd vd sd lupng vd chdt lupng cua manh hon mdt cac nudc khu vuc cac qudc gia ttong khu vyc vira cd sy lien ed thd cd gdng thiic diy phye hdi da tang kdt gitta eac qudc gia dd tgo thdnh cde hdn trudng nhanh ban minh qudn sy nhdm kidm chd ldn ThU ba, chidn lupc ttd lgi Chdu A ciia My Thu hai, cde nhdn td khac tgo cgnh nhdm ngdn can su ttdi day cua Trung Qudc tranh sire mgnh qudn sy ttong khu vyc la ma My cho rdng sd de dpa din vj tti cudng Nhgt Bdn vd Tridu Tidn vdn tidp tue thyc qude sd trdn thd gidi cua minh Do vdy, hidn myc tidu qudc gia eua minh Nhdt Bdn trd lgi Chau A, My vira tim each gidnh lgi vin ttdn eon dudng ttd lai mdt qudc gia binh tdm dnh hudng ddi vdi khu vyc ma My dd thudng vdi nhflng ddng thai chuin bj sua ddi ddnh mit ttong thdi gian tap trung cho cdc hidn phdp Ndu Nhdt Bdn sita ddi hidn phap mat trdn d Irdc va Apghanistan vua tim mpi 18 NGHIEN Cdru O O N G B ^ C A S 1(167) 1-2015 Nghien citu khoa hoc each dd bao vdy va kidm chd Trung Qudc dudi cdc hinh thiic tdng cudng sire manh qudn sy ciia cac dan vj My ddn tru ttdn lanh thd cua cac ddng minh ttong khu vyc Chdu A ndi chung va Ddng Bdc A ndi rieng vd tgo cdc vdng vdy ddi vdi Trung Qude thdng qua viec lidn kdt vdi cdc ddng minh truydn thdng Dap lai nhung ddng thai tit phia My, Trung Qudc se phdi tdng cudng site mgnh qudn su dd phd vd thd bao vdy md My tao Vipc dd ddn ddn mdt cudc canh ttanh qudn sy khdng tuydn bd giua My vd Trung Qudc My thi ludn mudn khdng djnh vj thd sd ciia minh cdn Trung Qude thi khdng thd cu mdi mdi chdp nhdn d vj tti sau My md tidm lye qudc gia cho phep hp cd thd vupt My tuong lai vd eude cgnh tranh ndy sd cdn tidp tuc Cudc canh tranh khdng chi cd My vd Trung Qudc md se ldi keo cd cdc nudc khde ttong khu vyc My khdng chi gia tdng sue manh quan sy eua ridng minh ma cdn hinh cdc lidn minh quan sy ttong khu vyc dd bao vay Trung Qudc nhu lidn minh My - Nhdt- Hdn hay My- Nhdt- An Dp Trudc the bao vdy nhu vdy Trung Qudc chi cdn cdch tdng cudng siic manh cua ehinh minh dd phd vd vdng vdy va vdng quay vd cgnh tranh site mgnh qudn sy lai tidp dien Thdng tan xa Viet Nam, Cdc vdn di qudc te sd thdng nam 2012 Thong tin xd Viet Nam, Tdi lieu tham khdo dgc biet chuyen dd thdng nam 2012; "Bdo cao hang nam trudc qudc hdi vd phat tridn qudn su va an ninh ciia nude edng hda nhdn dan Trung Hoa" Thong tin xa Viet Nam, Cdc vdn di qudc te sd nam 2014 Thdng tin xa Viet Nam, Tdi lieu tham khao dgc biet 6/11/2012 Thdng tin xa Vidt Nam Tdi li?u tham khdo die biet ngiy 4/S/20\2 Thdng tin xd Vidt Nam, Tdi lieu tham khdo dgc biet ngdy 29/4/2014 Dang Xuan Thanh, "Binh mdi rupu cii hay la mpt so bieu hien gdn day cua chu nghta ddn tdc tai Dong Bac A", Tap chi Nghien cuu Bong Bac A so thang nam 2012 TAI LIEU THAM KHAO Richard A Bitzinger, Miliraty Modernization in the Asia Pacific: Is It an Ams Race, CSCAP Regionsl Security Outlook 2012 Luu Minh Phiic, Gidc ma Trung Qudc, Nxb Thdi dai nam 2011 NGHIEN Cflu O O N G B ^ C ^ sd 1(167) 1-2015 19 ... lanh mdi ttong khu v\ic Ddng Bde A Cd thd ndi rdng su nghi ky ldn gitta cdc qudc gia ttong khu vuc da tgo mpt su cgnh tranh ngdm vd sue mgnh qudn su Nhiing didn bidn xdy ttong khu vuc nhu vide... qudc ttong khu vyc Do vdy, ehuydn ddn sang theo kidu mdt cupc chidn cudc cgnh tranh siic mgnh quan sy khu tranh lgnh khu vyc Ddng Bdc A, cd vye Ddng Bdc A vdn didn ttong nhiing nghia Id vua cd... Nhiing ttanh chdp ndy cung Id nguydn nhdn dd cac nudc khu vuc canh tranh sire mgnh qudn sir vdi nhau, coi dd nhu bai dd dpa dim va mac ed vdi cdc tranh chap song phuong hay da phuong Tha hai: Tdc