DAN S O VA N H A d VI$T NAM - K £ T QUA VA CHlNH SACH ^ K^QUA T6NG OliU TRA DAN S6 VA NHA Vltr NAM 2009 BUC TRANH TdNG QUAT VE CAU TRUC TUdi - GIOI TINH VA TlNH TRANG HON NHAN Ngpe Linh Cung nhitnhl4u nifdfc dang phdt triin if khu vtXc k h i cao, c h i n t h i p rtfng n h i t va Ddng Nam A, Viit Nam dang dgial dogn sau cOa thdi c h l l u rtfng d c t i n g g i l m k h i theo dtf tutfi thi t h i p tutfi ky qud dd ddn s6, chuyin ddi ti)tmdt nUdc cd mdc dd dnhanh i n stf Vift Nam n i m 2009 cd sinh vd mdc dd chit cao sang mdt nUdc cd mdc dd dgng hinh thang vdi d$c trUng sinh vd mdc dd chit thdp Theo dd, ddn sd Viit Nam cd d i n stf vdi mQc sinh, mQc c h i t kha nhOhg thay ddi idn vi cdu trdc tudi, gidi tinh vd tinh t h i p IMdc dtf sinh g l i m di l i m cho d i y t h i p tutfi thu h^p d i n trgng hdn nhdn cdu true tiiSi cda ddn s6 Viit Nam cd nhihig thay ddi Idn Stf l l f u Tong d l l u tra Dan stf v l N h i d 2009 cho t h i y d u true tuoi cda dan stf Viix Nam d l thay dtfi d i n g k l thdt ky 1979-2009 Do mUc sinh thdl ky n i y g i l m n l n t r i em thutfc d c nhdm tuoi tQ 0-14 tuoi d i u g l i m Trong dd ty trpng t r i thudc nhtfm tutfl 5-9 tutfi g i l m mgnh nhat t d 14,6% n i m 1979 xuong 11,8% nam 1999 v l cht cdn 7,8% n i m 2009 T r i thupc nhdm tutfi 10-14 ciing g i l m v l ty trpng vdl 4,9% 30 nam Mac dil cd ty trpng g i l m kha n h l l u vdl 6,4% sau 30 nam song ty trpng t r i thutfc nhdm tutfl 0-4 nam 2009 van cao hon nhdm tutfl 5-9 (8,2% so vdl 7,8%) bdi nhimg n i m trd lai day mdc sinh g i l m khong n h l l u D i n stf nhdm tuoi 15-19 c h i l m ty trpng n h l l u n h i t ttfng d i n stf c l node (10,4%) va g i l m dan d nhCmg nhdm tutfi t i l p theo Tuy nhiSn, n i m 2009, ty I I d i n so d c nhdm tuoi t d 20-24 trd l^n (trd nhdm tuoi 65-69) d i u tang so vdl 10 nam trade va n h l l u n h i t I I d nhdm tuoi 45-49 v l 50-54 Hinh 1:Thlp d i n so Vift Nam cic n i m 1979,2009 2009 Nhdng thay doi v l d u true tutfi cda d i n sd Vift Nam 30 nam (1979-2009) d l l i m thay doi hinh thap tutfl dan stf Khic vcfi t h i p tutfi dan stf n i m 1979 ed dgng d i e trUng eiia d i n sd cd mdc sinh cung mQe chet tutfi thp ciia d i n stf t i n g l l n d l l i m cho p h i n dtnh cda t h i p tutfi thu hep c h i m VI d l l u n i y t h i h i f n k h i rd q u i trinh g l l hda d i n stf Vift Nam theo thdl gian vdi cht stf g l l hda d l t i n g l&n lien tuc t d 16,6% nam 1979 ten 35,5% nam 2009 (nghTa I I cQ t r i em dQdi 15 tutfl cd eg gla 60 tuoi trd lln) VI ctf sg chenh tfch d i n g ke v l chl stf gia hda gida Ddng b i n g stfng Htfng 1147,7% (cao nhat) va T i y Nguyin I117,3% ( t h i p nhat) Tutfl thp trung binh gla tang va tri d mQc cao tong ty s u i t sinh t l l p tuc g l i m sau dtf tri d mQc t h i p se l i m cho d i n stf Vift Nam tUOng lai n g i y mdt y l u di Theo d p bao, den n i m 2034, chl stf gla hda cda Vift Nam t i n g l l n tdl 106,6 (cd t r i em cd 1,1 eg g l l , t i n g l l n so hien nay) NhU viy, tUong lat sd ngudi g l l tang l l n rat nhanh e l v l stf lupng va ty If Nam 2049, sd ngudl g i l se khdng ngimg tang va g i p g i n l l n so vdi n i m 2009 (7,5 trieu ngUdl) Dg bao nhQng n i m t l l p theo, d i n stf Vift Nam se l l l n tye g i l dl T h i h i l n d tuoi trung vj da t i n g len mpt d c h nhanh chdng Neu n h u nam 2000 cd tutfl trung vj la 23,1 thi n i m 2009 tang len tdi 28,0 tuoi V I 10 nam tdl 41 -m ' D A N S VA N H A d VlfT NAM - KtT QUA VA CHINH S A C H d i n n i m 2019 tutfi trung vi se t i n g l l n t d 28 tudi d i n 32 tudi v l t l l p tgc t i n g t h i m tutfi 10 n i m t l l p theo ( l l n 37 tutfi n i m 2029) Tuy n h i l n , t d sau 2029, tutfi trung vj se t i n g e h l m Igl chl cdn t i n g tutfi 10 n i m t i l p dp ( l l n 40 tutfi n i m 2039) v l chl cdn t i n g tutfl mtfi 10 nam t i l p theo t f Bl