TAP cm NimiEN cdn PHAT THIEN SO 11 (1/2015) ^ NGUYEN NHAN THUC flAY CAC DONG NGUOll Tir NONG THON NHAP CU VAO THANH THj ThS PHAN THI XUAN DI$U' /^\jMp cu tit nong thdn vdo thdnh thi Id mdt hien tugng phd biin & hdu hit cdc qudc gia ^ ^Ltren thi gi&i Bdy la qud trinh cdn thiit cho su nghiip cong nghiip hda nhdm tgo tiin di thiic ddy nin kinh tiphdt triin Cimg v&i tdng tru&ng kinh ti Id gia tdng nhu cdu vi nguai lao dgng ldm viic & cdc thdnhphd, nhgp cu tit ndng thdn vdo thdnh thi se cung cdp lao ddng cho Idiu vuc ndy Tuy nhiin & nhiiu qudc gia dang phdt triin tdc do thi hda vdn tdng nhanh mdc du tdc dg tdng tru&ng GDP cimg th&i diim gidm hodc thgm chi GDP tdng tru&ng dm Cd nhiiu nghien citu thuc nghiem nhdm gidi ddp ngMch ly "tgi ngu&i ddn ngheo tgi ndng thdn tiip tuc di cu vdo thdnhphd, ngc^ cd tgi thdnhphd khdng co du cdng dn vi$c ldm cho hp vd hg phdi sdng cdc khu d chudt v&i chdt lugng cugc sdng thdp mdt diiu ki$n song di bi tdn thuang vd tdch bgch khdi nhihig gi hp biit" Nhgn thdy nghich ly ngy dd vd dang ton tgi a Viit Nam nhieu ndm qua, bdi viit sephdn tich vd tdng hgp nhitng nghien citu nu&c vd tren thi gi&i, ddng th&i minh hog bdng truang hgp cu the cua Thdnh phd Hd Chi Minh (TPHCM) nhdm trd lai cdu hdi: "ddu Id dgng luc thuc ddy ddng ngu&i nhdp cu tic nong thdn vdo thdnh thi? " Tir khda.' Ndng thdn, thi, nhdp cu Xu hirdng nhap cir tir ndng thdn vao thi 7.7 Tren the gi&i UN-HABITAT (2013) udc tinh rdng ddn nam 2050, cd 68% dan sdttdntodntii^gidi s6 sinh song d khu vyc thi Hinh Ty le phan tram dan cif thj tCrnam 1950 64n nam 2050 Wguon: UN-HABITAT 2013 Nghifin Clhi vien - Ph6ng Nghien cuu Tong hpp - Vifn Nghien cmi phAt tri^n TP H Chf Minh 78 VMH6A-XAHOI Tir hinh 1, ta thiy rang ty IS ngu6i dan smh song a khu v^c thi ciia cac nuac phat trien cao hon ty le tuong ling a cac nuac tong phat trifa Tuy nhi6n, ty le phin trSm nguW nhap cu tir nong thon vao thi a tit ca cAc khu vvc (qu6c gia phat trifa hay dang phat triSn) luon tang qua cdc nam va du bio se tiep tyc tang tuang lai Nhu vay, nghien Cliu cua UN-HABITAT cho thiy ring di cu tir nong thon vao thi la mot "xu huong" da va dang dien tren pham vi toan thd gidi 1.2 a Viel Nam Truoe nhimg nam 90, hien tuong nh^p cu tvr nong thon vao thi khong phfl biSn Viet Nam Nha vao nhimg cai each kinh ti - xa hoi (til sau cflng cuoc D5i moi nSm 1986) va viec noi long chinh sach, luong nguoi d ^ nhap cu til nong thon vao thi tang dang ki Trong nhOng nam gin day, dto s6 tai khu vuc thtoh thi ciia Viet Nam van gia ttog nhanh theo thai gian (xem hinh 2) mac dii tflc 46 ttog trudng GDP ciia Viet Nam giam tir 9.5% tir ntoi 1995 xudng 5% vao ntol 2012 (xem hinh 3) Hinh Dan so khu viTc ndng thdn vi thjinh thj cCIa Vl^t Nam til 2003 den 2013 Din so ndng th&n ~ thiinh thi (ngftn ngudi) soooo 2009 t\ 2004 ZOOS Tbanbtht 2ooe 200T None tbon 200s Ngudn: DUa vdo so lieu cua Word Bank, www.worldbank.data.org Hinh 3: Tdc dd tdng trudng GDP hSng nam cOa Viet Nam tir 1993 d£n 2012 GDP growth (annual 96) 10 - ^»— \ \ '' Jt-'* V/ \ ^ ^^ N/^^S ^4^.^.^,^.^.^.^.^.^.^.^.^.^.^.^.^.^.^.^ Ngudn: Dua vJo sd lieu cua Word Bank, www.worldbank.data.org Bd K I ho»ch vi Diu tu Viet Nam (2009) cd bao cao chi ring Ddng Nam Bd la khu vuc cd luong ngudi nhap cu rdng cao nhit ca nudc (xem hinh va hinh 5) 79 TAP c m NGHIEN CUD PHAT THEN SO 11(1/2015) Hinh Dan s£ nhap ciT, di cU, va nh|p ciT rdng nam trirde tSng dilu tra dan sd nam 1999 theo viing dViet Nam D o a v ] Dgndi • laooooo NliSpcuvfto • D i c u TBkbOi 1400000 1200000 1000 ooo aoooQo 400 000 200 000 wS^ T™r* T.yfy Pi.,b-, ""**"' N T ^ Ngudn: Bd Ke hoach va Oau tU, 2009 Hinh Dan sd nh|p cU, di cu, vd nhap cUrdng nam trUdrc tdng dilu tra dan sd nam 2009 theo vung dVift Nam Don VI'ngiiAi • NlM^cuvto • DlCIJtakhm 'iE B^ SiMHW •^L' DilNu Dhibil ' - • " - Nguon: Bd Ke hoach va Dau tU, 2009 Nhin vao hinh v^ hinh 5, luong ngudi nhap cu rdng v^o khu vyc Ddng Nam Bd la cao nhat so vdi cac khu vuc khac (cac khu vuc khac nhap cu rdng am, nghia la luong ngudi di cu khdi khu v\rc ldn hem lugng ngucri nhap cu v^o khu v\rc) So stoh sfl lieu giGa ntol 1999 va 2009, ta thiy ring sd ngudi nh|ip cu vto khu vyc Dflng Nam Bo ttog han 200% (til khotog 700.000 ngudi dfln xip xi 1.600.000 ngudi) Sfl Hflu tren hoto torn phil h9p vdi ttah hinh thuc tfl cua Viet Nam TPHCM nim d khu vuc Dong Nam Bg, vi vay s6 lugng ngudi nhjp cu rdng vao khu virc niy cao hon cac khu vuc va cang ttog cao qua c4c nSm Ty 1$ ttog dan sfl co hoc ciia TPHCM gia ttog rd r|t qua cac thdi ky: thdi ky 1979-1989 la 0,02%, thdi kj-1989-1999 la 0,85% va thai ky 1999-2004 la 2,33% (LeVta Thtoh, 2006) Nhu vay, khdng nim ngoai xu hudng chung ciia thfl gidi, luong ngudi nhgp cu vao TPHCM ttog va ctog ttog cao thdi gian gto day 1.3 Tntimghf/pcAaThinhphoHdChitfmh Thanh ph6 Hd Chi Minh la Thtoh phfl ldn nhit, ntog dOng nhit v4 la Thanh phd "nam cham" d khu vuc phia nam Viet Nam Nhiflu khu vuc ngoai d cua TPHCM da duac dfl thi hda mflt each nhanh chdng (xem hmh 6) va dd la bidu hien cua qua trinh di cu tir nhihig 80 VANHOA-XAHOI tinh khac vao TPHCM Theo tac gia Le v a n TMnh (2006), t6c d6 nguai nhap cu trung binh vao TPHCM la 27,154 nguoi/ nam, giai doan 1984-1989,86,753 ngucri/ nam giai doan 1994-1999, va 126,200 ngudi/ nam giai d o ^ 1999-2004 Theo bao cdo "Tinh hinh kinh t^ - xa hpi TP H6 Chi Minh thang 12 va nam 2013" ciia Cyc Th6ng Ke TPHCM, dan s6 binh quan h-en dia ban TPHCM nam 2013 tren hieu 990 ngdn ngudi (xdp xi tri^u ngucri, tdng 2,5% so voi ndm 2012), ty le tdng dan s6 ty nhien Id 10,04 %o va ty 1$ tang dan s6 ca hpc la 15,42 %a V6i da tdng truang dan s6 nhu hi?n tai (cy the Id gia tang ddn s6 ca hpc nguoi dan tij ndng thon di cu vao TPHCM), nhieu chuyen gia dy bao rdng, thoi gian toi, TPHCM se chuyen minh thdnh sieu thi ddu tien ciia Viet Nam Viec TPHCM tra sieu thj sg Id thach thuc Ion cho thdnh noi rieng va Viet Nam noi chimg n6u nhu Thanh chua co su chudn bi sdn sang mpi phuang di?n (dudng sa, nhd d, y ti, giao dye, vi?cldm ) DS gidm thilu nhihig thach thuc ciia vdn dh nhdp cy at tuang lai TPHCM trd sieu thi ddu tien cua Viet Nam, thong qua viec tong hap nhung nghiSn ciiu tren the gidi, phan sau cua bdi viit s6 phan tich nguyen nhan ciia hien tupng di cu tu nong thon thdnh thi, dk tir dh cac khuySn nghi phu hop d6i vdi TPHCM Hinh DSn so cda TPHCM (ngdn ngUcri} tCr nam 1979 den nam 2009 1979 1989 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Ngudn: Nguyen Chi Hdi, 2011 Nguyen nhan cua di cu- tir ndng thdn vdo dich benh anh hudng den tinh "de bi tdn thucmg" thj (vulnerability) ciia cac ndng hp, dac biet la 2.1 T^i diim di - Su suy thodi cua mdi truang Nhihig hp gia ^ n h suih sdng d ndng thdn Id "tdc nhdn" ddng thdi Id " n ^ nhdn" ganh chiu h$u qua cua suy thodi mdi trudng nhu: bdo, lii lyt, h^n hdn, dich gia siic, gia c ^ Nhiing tdc dpng tieu cyc cua cdc cii sdc ldn tir thien tai nhihig hp ngheo Mot s6 ndng hd cd the khdc phuc nhiing cii s6c ndy bang viec vay muon vdn tii ngudi than, chinh phii de tdi sdn xuat ndng i^hiep, mdt so hd khac (khd nang de hi t6n thuong cao hon) khdng the khdc phyc duoc hau qud ciia suy thoai mdi trudng gdy Do vdy, d cac hd ndy, mpt vdi thdnh vidn gia i£nh phdi di cu vdo thdnh phd (ldm thue, cdng TAP CHI NGHIEN CmiPHAT THIEN so 11 (1/2015) nhan, budn ban hang rong, xe dm ) de da dang nhiing chinh sdch cdng nghi?p hda ndng hda ngudn thu nhdp vd gidm riii ro bien thdn Budc ddu tien ciia tien trinh dd thi hda dpng thu nhap cua hd Mpt vai trudng hop khac ndng thdn Id xay dyng ca sd tdng (dudng di cu ca hp gia dmh vdo phd, smh soi^ sd, khu cdng nghiep ) de thu hiit cdc doanh d cdc khu ven dd hmh thdnh cac "khu d chudt" nghiep vira va nhd, cac doanh nghi$p cd vdn cua thdnh phd Nhiing trudng hpp di cu dnh ddu tu nudc ngodi di chuyen ca sd sdn xuat hudng cua suy thoai mdi trudng ndy d cac qudc ddn ddy Nghia la, budc nay, chmh phu gia gpi Id ti nan mdi trudng (environmental se quy hoach, giai tda va bdi thudng quyen refugees) Trong trudng hpp cua cdc qudc gia su dyng ddt cho ndng dan, su dyng dat ndng Chdu Phi can Sahara, Barrios, Bertinelli vd nghiep sau quy hoach de xdy dyng cym khu Strobl (2006) da nghien ciiu mdi lien he giiia cdng nghiep Ndu nhu tidn trinh cdng nghidp biln ddi hau vd qua trinh dd thi hda cua hda ndng thdn cdng, nd se t£io nhieu cdc qudc gia ndy Ho ket ludn rang han hdn vide ldm cd gia tri gia tdng cao cho ngudi lao kSo ddi la mpt yeu td quan trpng idm gia tang ddng dia phuong, da dang hda vd cdi thien thu toe dp thi hda d cac qudc gia Chau Phi can nhap, se ldm gidm di cu vdo dd thi Tuy nhidn, Sahara (Barrios, Bertinelli & Strobl 2006) Cd trudng hpp cua Viet Nam (va mpt sd qudc gia rat nhieu nghien ciiu khdc tren the gidi ung hd kem phat trien khac) khd trdi ngupe d m§t sd gid thuyet cd moi tuong quan thuan giiia suy tinh cita Viet Nam, quy hoach xdy dyng nhQng thodi moi trudng vd tdc dd di cu tir ndng thdn cum khu cdng nghipp ddng nghia vdi giam dien tich dat canh tdc nong nghidp ciia ndng vdo thdnh thi dan Tuy nhien vi?c keo dai tien dp cua dy dn, - Gidm viic ldm cdng nghiep hda quy hoach treo thidu vdn, hodc nhOng dy ngdnh ndng nghiip dn xdy dyng xong hoat dpng khdng hi$u qud, Cimg vdi sy phdt trien ciia cdng nghidp cdc du dn d nhieu tinh xdy dung mpt cdch d hda - hi?n d^i hda, dp dyng khoa hpc ky thu|lt ^t khdng thu hiit dupc cac doanh nghi?p din vd cdng ngh? mdi sdn xuat ndng nghiep, hoat ddng vd tao viec ldm cho ngudi dan dia thi trudng lao dpng ngdnh ndng nghiep phuang Tdt cd nhfing didu dan den hi^n sS chuyen bien r5 r$t Nhu cdu vd "ngudi lao tupng that nghiep dai han ciia nhihig ngudi d0ng" ITnh vuc ndng nghiep se gidm, ndng dan cd dat nam quy hoach H? qud didn hinh Id d My 200 nam trudc day, 90% Id nhiing ngudi ndng ddn ndy su dung tien bdi ddn s6 tham gia san xuat ndng nghiep, ngdy thudng cua chinh phu di cu vdo thj dh chi 2% dan sd Mf tham gia vdo sdn xudt tim vide lam d ITnh vuc sdn xuat (cdng nhan) lucmg thyc, thuc pham, vdi sgi va cdc sdn hodc ITnh vyc phi chinh thuc (bdn hdng rong, phdm ndng nghiep khdc de nudi sdng cd nudc xe dm ) Mdt nghien ciiu cu the d trudng My (Prax, 2010) Nhu vay, nhu mpt qua trinh hprp tinh Ninh Binh dupc trinh bay Hpi tat ydu cua phat trien, mpt phdn lyc lupng lao thdo qudc td Viet Nam hpc ldn thii ba, cho dpng du thira ndng nghiep phai chuydn thay rdng "cii binh quan mdi hecta dat thu hdi vdo phd de tham gia vdo hoat ddng sdn cd khoang 10 ddn 13 ngudi lao d§ng bi mat xuat, djch vu viec lam" va giai do^n 2001-2005 cd khoang trieu ngudi lao ddng Viet Nam phdi chuyen - Gidm diin tich ddt ndng nghiep ddi nghd nghiep bi thu hdi dat (Ngd Thj De han ehe tdc dp di cu tir ndng thdn vdo Phuong, 2008) Mdt nghidn ciru khdc d xd thdnh thi vd gdp phan thiic ddy tidn trinh cdng Ai Qudc, huydn Nam Sach tinh Hdi Duong nghiep hda nhdm phat tridn ddt nudc, chinh cho thdy 819 hd tham gia phdng vdn, phu cua nhieu quoc gia dang phat triSn da dd 82 VANHOA-XAHOI cd hon 31% so hd bi mit 100%, hon 14% sfl hfl mit tren 75% dfln 90% v4 gin 15% sfl ho hi mit tren 50% dfln 75% dit canh tac chinh sach thu hdi dit dfl xay khu cdng nghigp cua dia phuang "Hien tugng nam gidi tudi tnmg nien v^ nam, nir nifln "ly hucmg" di tim cflng an viec lam d cdc dd thi, cac khu cong nghidp tren pham vi ca nudc dan dfln hien d nong thfln cd xu hudng nii hoa ndng nghiflp (phu nil ganh vac cdng viec san xuit ndng nghidp), lao hoa ndng thdn (da sd nhitag ngudi tren trung nien va cao tufli mdi d lai qufl) va phy nO hod chu hfl gia dinh trfln th\rc tfl (vi nam gidi la chu hp tren danh nghia lai di 14m an xa)" (Ho4ng Ba Thinh, Le Van Trudng, 2008) 2.2 Tai diem den - Chenh lech thu nhdp Mpt nhimg nguyfln nhan chinh giai thich vi cd hien tuong di cu tir nflng thfln vao thi la chenh lech thu nhjp mong dai giOa khu vuc Dieu dupc chung minh rd rflt d trudng hpp cua Trung Qudc Trung Qudc chflnh lech thu nhap giua nflng thon va thi gia tang dang ke keo theo he qua la ty le ngudi di cu tir ndng thdn vao thi tang nhanh chdng (xem hinh 7) Hinh ChSnh lech thu nh$p ndng thdn - thdnh thj dTrung Qudc Nhan dan te, diu nguai 20,000 Thu nhap thi Thu nhap nong thon 1978 85 91 93 SS 01 97 03 06 07 09 Wgudn; National Bureau of Statistics of China - Ca hoi viec ldm vd hoc tdp Ben canh chflnh lech vfl thu nhap, nhQng ngudi tre tufli cd xu hudng di cu vao thi dfl tim kiflm ca hpi hpc tap cao hon (vi cac thinh phfl cd nhiflu trudng dai hpc vdi diflu kifn ca sd v&t chit tdt hon) Sau tdt nghiSp, hiu hflt mpi ngudi dSu cd xu hudng a lai phd dfl tim vi?c nhu cau vfl nhan luc trinh dp cao d thtah ldn hon d ndng thdn rit nhieu - Chinh sdch Khi nghifln cilu nguyen nhan cua hi$n tupng di cu tir nflng thdn thi cua 83 mpt qudc gia cu the, chiing ta nfln xem xet dfln cac chinh sdch lien quan dfln di cu ciia quflc gia dd Viet Nam, tir nSm 1975 dfln nhimg nam diu thap nifln 90, nhitag gidi han vfl vfl hfl khiu cua chinh quyfln, "tflc do thi hoa va di cu tir nflng thfln vao thi bi kiflm ham" Sau cdng cupc Dfli mdi va cai td kinh tfl nam 1986, "di cu tir ndng thdn vao thi dupc thuc diy, va tdc dp dd thj hda gia ttog" (Anh, Rigg, Huong & Dieu 2012) (xem hinh 8) TAP c m NGHIEN (MU PHAT TRIEN SCI 11 (1/2015) Hinh Dan sd thi cua Vi4t Nam tilr nam 1976 ein 2020 % urban " 20 ^ ^ 10 ^ 1 I I I 1 1 1 1 1 11 11 1 11 1 11 „=,1'' ,0-(^ 0->*^\# •.^^ S^ 1 11 S # \ ' ' ^ ^ # \ # * " „ # ' ^.i*' „^