^yr/3/ Khoa hpc Xa hpi va Nhan vSn Tac dpng cua bien doi cd cau dan so tudi den NSLD cl Viet Nam Pham Ngoc Toan^*, Giang Thanh Long^ 'Trung tdm Phdn tich vd Du bdo chien lupc Vien Khoa hoc Lao dong 'Vien Chinh sdch cong vd Qudn ly, Tnrang Dgi hoc Kmh le Quoc ddn Ngay nhan bai 28.9 2015, chuyen phan bien I 10 2015, nhan phan bifn 29.10 2015, chap nhan dang 11.2015 Nghign cihi sa dung so lieu di^u tra doanh nghi§p cac nam tir 2010 den 2012 va ket qua du bao dan s6 theo tuoi cho giai doan 2014-2049 cua Tong cue Thong ke (2015) dl udc luang nang suat lao d6ng (>[SLB) theo tuoi NghiSn cihi ap dung mo hinh cua Aubert va Crepon (2007) [1] va phuong phap phSn tich chuyen dich ty trgng (Shift-Share Analysis - SSA) Ket qua nghien cihi cho thay, bien doi cff cau dan so theo nhom tuoi dien den nam 2019 se lam mat loi the ve so luong dan so tuoi tao NSLD cao (35-54 tuoi) ty trgng dan so o* dd tuoi bat dau giam Day la thach thirc ve giam NSLD chung ciia nen kinh te dai han cor cau dan so theo tudi thay ddi theo hirdng gia hoa dan so Tu khoa: ca cdu ddn so tuoi, ndng sudt lao dpng, tdc dpng Chi so phdn loai 5.2 Gioi thieu The impact of changes in population age structure on productivity in Vietnam Summary This research used data from the Enterprise Census from 2010 to 2012 and results from GSO's population projections for Vietnam in 2014-2049 (GSO, 2015) to estimate labor productivity by age groups The research applied the economic model proposed by Aubert and Crepon (2007) to quantify labor productivity by age groups and used Shift-Share Analysis (SSA) method to quantify the impacts of both labor shifts and growth in labor productivity by age on the national labor productivity The research results showed that structural changes of age population in 2019 will not take advantage ofthe number of population creating high productivify (aging from 35 to 54 ) because the proportion of this population group will decrease This is the challenge of decreasing labor productivity of the economy in the long-term when population will be rapidfy aging f Keywords: impact, population age productivity Classification number 5.2 structure, Nhieu nghien cuu phan tich tang trucmg kinh tc da khang dinh rang, NSLD la mpt yeu to rat quan trpng de tri va tang toe dp tang trucmg kinh te Dac biet, boi canh dan so co nhiing bien doi manh me ve CO cau tuoi theo hucmg dan so 'vang' (tuc la cang nhieu nguoi lire lucmg lao dpng) va sau la dan so 'gia' (dan so cang nhieu nguoi cao tuoi va luc lugng lao dong thu hep lai) thi yeu to NSLD tinh theo moi hoac nhom moi lai cang quan trpng doi vdi tang trucmg kinh te dai ban Cho tdi nay, da co nhieu nghien cuu ve tang trudng kinb te, chuyen dich lao dpng va vai tro ciia NSLD doi vdi tang trudng kinh te d Viet Nam, Tuy nhien, chua CO nghien cuu nao tinh toan dugc NSLD theo tuoi cung nhu sy dong gop ciia nang suat doi vdi viec thay doi NSLD chung ciia toan bo nen kinh te Ben canh do, viec dich chuyen lao dpng tac dong nhu the nao tdi tang trudng kinh te ciing mdi chi dugc nghien cuu d nhimg budc khdi dau Trong boi canh dan so Viet Nam dang va se co nhieu thay doi ldn ve ca cau tuoi thi ket qua ciia nghien ciiu se gop phan dua nhirng co sd, bang chung khoa hgc cho viec xay dung cac chinh sach ve nguon nhan luc phuc vu cho phat trien kinh te thdi gian tdi Tong quan mot so nghien cihi Medoffva Abraham (1980) [2] da nghien cuu ve tac *Tdc gid lien h4: Email: ngoctoantkt@gmail.com Khoa hpc Xa hpi v^ Nhan v^n dpng ciia NSLD cua cac nhom nhan cong theo cac dac tnmg vh trmh dp tdi ket qua lam viec ciia hp va boat dpng ciia hai tap doan ldn d My Ket qua cho thay, nhan cong chi dugc dao tao d mot muc nao thi ket qua lam viec (bay NSLD) cua hp thay doi rdt cham dii kinh ngbiem lam viec tang len Ciing luc do, thu nhap lai tang theo kinh nghiem NSLD tang cham nen din tdi t6c dp tang hudng chung cua ca hai tap doan dugc nghien cuu cham lai Malmberg (1994) [3] phan tich dinh lugng v8 su thay doi CO cau tuoi dan so tac dpng tdi tang tmdng kinh t8 thong qua sir thay d6i ve nang suat Ket qua cho thay, thay doi ve co cau tuoi dan so lam tbay doi NSLD va tu lam tbay doi tang trudng kinh te Cu thS, tang tnidng kinh t6 diln nhanh chong h-ong giai doan dan so co kha nang tich liiy ve nhan luc va tiet kiem chiem ty le cao tong dan so va sau tang trudng giam manh ty le dan so song phu thuoc ldn hon dan so cang gia Nguyen nhan co ban vln la su khac biet ve tong nang suat co cau tuoi dan so thay doi cung vdi bien dpng nang suat tung nhom tuoi Phan tich yeu to nang suat theo tuoi va gidi tinh tac dpng tdi tang tnrdng ciia nganh san xuat, Hellerstein va cpng su (1999) [4] sir dung so lieu dieu tra cap doanh nghiep Cue Dan so My tien hanh thap ky 90 cua the ky trudc Ket qua cbo thay, tien luong cua lao dpng rat khac biet va nguyen nhan chii yeu la nang suat cua ho khac Dac biet, nhom lao dpng tmng nien (35-54 tuoi) va cao nien (tir 55 tuoi trd len) co nang suat va thu nhap tang cimg toe dp Hp phat hien rang, phu nu co NSLD thap hon nam gidi, nhung muc tien cong cua phu nii lai thap hem rat nhieu so vdi nam gidi (tuc la khoang each ve tien cong ldn hon khoang each ve nang suat) Nhung khac biet khien cho NSLD chung cua cac doanh nghiep co ket cau lao dpng theo tuoi va gidi tinh khac la rkt khac Aubert va Crepon (2007) [1] nghien cuu ve quan be giiia tu6i va NSLD bSng viec sir dung s6 lieu hi hon 70.000 doanh nghiep vdi hon 3,9 frieu iao dpng vao cuoi nhimg nam 90 d Phap Ket qua udc lugng cho thay,^ NSLD tang len cho tdi nhom tu6i 40-45 va sau hku nhu khong thay d6i tu6i tang len Lao dpng tu 40 tuoi trd len co nang suat cao hem lao dpng tu6i 35-39 khoang 5%, nhung lai th§p hem lao dpng dudi S!SGl»SEViaNam''='"'"^ 30 m6i khoang 15-20% Ket qua kha tuong dong giira cac nganh, dac bi^t la cac nganh cbS tao, thuon|; mai va dich vu Sir khac biet ve NSLD cua cac nhom tu6i tac dpng tdi t6c dp tang trudng ciia cac nganh vdi CO cdu lao dpng theo tuoi co su khac biet Idn Nghien cuu ciia Thangavelu va Wei (2006) [5] vfi tac dpng ciia biSn doi co cau tuoi theo hudng gia hoa va chuydn djch lao dpng tbeo trmh dp giao due toi tang trudng kinh td d Singapore vdi viec md phong s6 lieu ciia giai doan 1984-2004 cho thdy, tdc dp tai^ cua chdt lugng lao dpng - bang NSLD ttieo tufli va trinh dp - giam tir muc 0,82%/nam giai doan tidn khimg hoang tai chinh chau A (1984-1997) xudng cbi 0,01% giai doan 1998-2004 ma phdn ldn la lire lugng lao ddng gia nhanh va ky nang cdng nghe ciia hdu bdt cac nhom hidi bi giam xudng Dac biet, nhom tir 55 tudi trd len cd chat lugng lao ddng giam rdt nhanh, nhom 40-54 mdi cd chat lugng lao dpng cao ban nhieu so vdi nhom Iao dpng tre tudi hon Tli thuc te nay, md phdng cua cac tac gia cho thay, tang tnrdng nang suat se giam va vi the tang trudng kinh ti cung giam theo neu khdng co sir dau tu diing muc Cac tac gia da de xuat bang loat bien pbap cai thien nang suat cho lao ddng theo nhom tudi nhu tang cudng giao due trpn ddi cho ngudi cao tudi va nhiing nguoi co trinh dp giao due thap de hp co the cai thien kha nang lao dpng va nang cao chat lugng giao due cho moi c ^ hpc, dac biet la d bac dai hoc va day nghe Ciing phan tich ve Singapore vdi tu each la mot qudc gia co sy phat trien ky dieu d chau A, Akkemik (2005) [6] xem xet tac dpng cua chuydn dich lao ddng giiia cac nganh tdi tang trudng nang suat chung Singapore giai doan 1965-2002 bdng phuang phap phan tich chuyen dich ty trpng (SSA) Ket qua phan tich cho thay, cd sir dich chuyen ro rang ciia lao ddng CO nang suat cao (the hien bdng tidn luong/cdng hg nhan dugc) vao cac nganh che tao (nhu dien, di?n tii, dau mo, thiet bi van tai ) nhd nbung can thiep chinh sach phil hgp ciia chinh phu vao ttii trudng lao ddng frong giai doan trudc nam 1985 Tuy nhien, sau nam 1985, CO su hr boa thi frudng lao ddng nen su dich chuydn lao dpng lai co tac ddng tieu cue tdi tang tnrdng nang sudt (lam giam 35,5% nang suat chung ciia toan bp ndn kinh td va Iam giam 15,7% nang suat cac nganh chd tao) ma ly chii ydu la cd sy dich chuydn ciia lao ddng hi nganh cd nang sudt cao sang 22 K h o a hpc X a hpi v^ N h a n vSn ng^nh cd nang suat thdp ban Sy khac biet vd luong giira cac nganh dugc coi la mpt nguyen nhan chii ydu va cac tac gia cho rang chinh phu cdn co nhiing chinh sach than frpng frong can thiep thi hirdng lao dgng •'••01 flee c ; Sir dung SSA dd danh gia tang trudng cua chau A va chau My Latinh, Timmer va de Vries (2009) [7] lai tim ket qua nguge lai vdi cac phan tich tnrdc day cho rang, dich chuydn lao dpng sang cac nganh co nang suat cao hon la nguyen nhan chu ydu cai thien NSLD va tang tnrdng kmh td Hp su dung sd lieu cua 19 nudc d chau A va chau My Latinh frong giai doan 1950-2005 va phat hien rang, tang trudng nhanh ciia cac nudc dugc the hidn chu yeu la tu cai thien nang suat npi nganh, cbu khdng phai djch chuyen lao dong sang nganh co nang sudt hon Cu thd, kdt qua udc lugng cho thay, cai thidn nang suat frong cac dich vu thi trudng quan frpng bon viec tang nang suat d cac nganh che tao - nhiing nganh dugc coi la dau tau frong tang trudng d cac nudc Phuvng phap uvc luvng anh huung cua bie'n doi Cff ca'u dan so tuoi den NSLD Hidn nay, NSLD dugc xac dinh bang tdng gia tri cua khdi Iugng hang hoa, dich vu san xuat chia cho tdng Iao dpng dang lam viec Tuy nhien, viec xac dinh nhu vay se khdng xem xet dugc NSLD ca nhan Mat khac, d mdi nhdm tudi khac thi cd nhiing dac tnmg ve trinh dp, the Iuc kbac nen NSLD d mdi nhom se khdng gidng Nham xem xet anh hudng cua bien ddi ca cau dan so theo nhom tudi qua cac nam se anh budng den tang nang suat chung ciia nen kinh te nhu thd nao, nghien ciiu sir dyng mpt sd each tiep can sau day tf&c lugfng NSLD theo nhom tuoi Be udc lugng NSLD tbeo nhom tudi, chiing ta xuat ph^t tir dang ham san xuat sau d&y: b ( g ^ ) = In(^), + ^ ln(^,,) + a \t\{X.L,,) + ^,, (I) Trong do: Qj la dau ( d u a c bang gia tri gia tang - VA, gia tri gia tang cua mot nganh - G O hoac doanh thu) cua doanh nghiep /; cac y i u xb dau vao la von K^ va miic N S L D X.L (so lucmg lao dpng nhan vdi nang suat ciia mpt d o n vi lao dpng); A la h e so tu do, mpt phan phan anh lieS*22*ViftN;lam anh h u o n g cua trinh dp quan ly, tien bp khoa hpc cong nghe vao san xuat; p la tham so u d c l u p n g phan anh co gian ciia dau Q theo von, neu von tang them 1% thi Q se thay ddi p %; a la he so CO gian cua dau Q theo so lao dpng; c^^ la sai so n g l u nhien cua mo hinh Nghien ciiu hudng den muc dich udc tinh NSLD tucmg ddi theo nhdm lao ddng Gia su c6 sy thay thd hoan hao giira cac loai Iao dpng, NSLD X.i co the dugc vidt lai la tdng cua NSLD cua mdi nhom lao ddng Neu X la NSLD bien cua nhdm^', cd the viet nhu "au: ii= Zu=^.^.Z =v[i^I( -1)- (2) Ham san xuat frdn dugc viet lai: lii(a>cons+^,ln(i;,)+ff,log{i:Uff.io^ 1+7(^-1)-^ +f,, (3) Sir dung xap xi Taylor, chimg ta co dang tuyen tinh J+Zff(^-l)U (4) Ket qua udc lugng se giup xac dinh dupc dong gdp ciia mdi don vi lao ddng theo nhdm tudi den tang trudng nhu the nao, hay cho phep ludng NSLD theo timg nhdm tudi if&c luang ddng gdp tu ca cdu ddn sd theo tuoi din NSLD Nghien cim sir dung phuang pbap phan tich chuyen dich ty trpng SSA de Iudng tac ddng tir chuyen dich co cau theo nhom tudi va tang tnrdng nang suat ndi bd cac nhdm tudi den NSLD chung Trong mpt nen kinh te, chi tieu tdng san pham nudc (GDP) pban anh ddng thai cua tang trudng, cdn chi tieu ca cau kinb te phan anh chat lugng tang trudng, Sy thay doi ve co cau kinb te va ca cau lao dpng chinh la sy dieu chinh phuang thiic sir dung va phan bd cac ngudn lyc xa hpi, Sy di chuyen ngudn luc xuat phat tir nhieu nguyen nhan, cd the tbeo tin hieu ciia thi trudng, nhung phan ldn la phan iing trudc cbinh sach nganh frong mdi giai doan phat trien Khi mdt chinh sach nganh cd hieu lyc se keo theo sy di chuyen lao 23 Khoa hpc Xa hpi v^ Nhan van ddng giua cac nganh kinb td nhdm muc dich tao su di chuySn ngudn lyc hgp Iy, gop phdn Iam tang hieu qua su dung cac ngudn lyc dd, hay thiic ddy lam tang NSLD Gpi P va P tucmg iing la muc nang suat ciia nen kinh td va nang sudt ciia nhdm tudi /; Yva T tuang dng la tdng gia tri ddu cua nen kinh td lao d^ng tao va cua nhdm tudi i; L va L_ tuong ung la tdng lao ddng va lao dpng d nhdm tudi; Ty frpng lao ddng cua nhom i frong tdng Iao ddng cua ndn kinh te la Khi ta cd: 2011 va nam 2012; ket qua dy b^o dan sd ciia Tdng cue Thdng ke If&c lup^g NSLD theo nhdm tuoi Do sd li?u su dung khdng thd pban tach chi tigt dugc tudi theo cac nhdm khac ma chi cd thg sir dung phan nhom Tdng cue Thdng ke da dinh sin nen nghien ciiu chi co thd su dung nhom tudi nhu sau: nhdm 15-34; nhdm 35-55; nhom 56-60 va nhom tren 60 tuoi Vi lao ddng dugc xac dmh la tdng sd Iao ddng va ty le lao dpng dugc xac dinh frong tdng lao dpng ndn udc lugng cho NSLD theo dau ngudi dugc hinh bay frong bang Trong do: n la sd nhdm tudi Bang I udc lucmg hdm sdn xual theo nganh Nhu vay, su ttiay ddi tuyet doi ve NSLD giiia nam gdc va nam / la: C&c bi^n Lnl Capital) Giai tli[ch bi^n Losant(von) Loeant (lon^ lao dgng) Cdng thiic fren cho tbay, thay ddi tuyet doi ve NSLD giiia nam gdc va nam t tac dpng cua cau phan nhu the Men ben vd phai cua cdng thirc (6), dd la: (i) Tac dpng frong ndi bd cua nhom tuoi (infra effect, "Q-iS^?]-?i)) cho biet phan thay ddi cua toan bd NSLD la thay ddi nang suat giua cac nhom tudi Hieu ling cho thay sy tang trudng NSLD co the xay ca khdng cd sy thay ddi ca cau, la viec tang nang suat tdng hgp thu dugc tir nhung cai tien nang suat frong ndi bd ciia tung nhdm tudi; (ii) Tac ddng "tinh" (2J'=ip|'(5|'^ - 5,")) dugc tao sy di chuyen co cau lao ddng theo nhdm tudi, no phan anh viec thay ddi NSLD cd the xay chuyen dich co can lao ddng theo tudi mac dii khdng cd sy thay ddi ve NSLD frong npi bp nganh; (iii) Anh hudng "dpng" Q?=i(pf - P?)(S/" - yf)) du'dc tao d mdt nhdm tudi nao viia cd miic thay ddi NSLD, viia cd sy thay ddi ve ca cau Iao dpng Mdt nhom tudi neu vira cd miic tang NSLD va vira tang ty frpng Iao ddng thi VA frong nhom mdi tang nhanh ban so vdi tang Iao ddng Neu mdt nhdm tudi co NSLD giam nhung cd ty frpng lao ddng tang thi tang trudng kinh td phat tridn theo chieu rdng Thao luan ket qua Trong nghien cuu nay, chiing toi sir dyng s6 lieu didu fra doanh nghiep va so lieu thdng ke ciia Tdng cue Thdng ke vd sd lao dpng cd viec lam chia ttieo nhom hidi, GDP, dau tu d cdp tinh frong cac nam 2010, foNG NGHI Viet mm4(5)5.2016 •^ H^ iS irAt hrnK: 0.235'" -• (0,0031 0,890"(0,006) 0,563"* lS-34 Ty le lao dgng a nhom 15-34 tuoi tiong long lao dpng 35-55 Ty lp lao d6ng o tihora 35-55 tuoi long lao dpng 56-60 Ty 1? laD dong o nhim 56-60 iuoi long lao dpng Tren 60 Ty 1? lao dong o nhom 60 lufii tra lAi bvmg tong lao dpng Constant Hf 50 Chan (0.153) 2.IW3— Observations So quan sat R-squaced (0,079) 63,069 0.545 (0.07S) O,509'** (0.081) -0,614"' Ket qua cbo thay nang suat tuang ddi cua tiing nhdm tudi frong doanh nghiep Ty le lao ddng fre, Iao ddng tnmg tudi frong tdng lao ddng la cac ydu td tich cue gdp phan lam tang gia tri gia tang Cu thd, ty Id Iao dpng nhdm tudi 15-34 tang them diem % thi VA ciia doanh nghidp tang thdm 0,563% Tuong tu, vdi nhdm lao dpng hidi 35-55 thi kdt qua la 0,509% Ben canh do, yeu td vd vdn ddu tu va sd lugng lao ddng cung cd tac ddng tich cue ddn tang frudng VA Cy thd, neu vdn tang them 1% thi VA them 0,23%, frong sd lugng lao dpng tang 1% thi VA se tang them 0,89% Nhu vay, ndu Iao ddng va von tang nh« hien (lao ddng tang binh quan khoang 2%, vdn dau tu khoang 14%) thi dong gdp cua vdn den tang tmdng la khoang diem %, cdn ddng gop ciia lao ddng den tang frudng la khoang 1,6 diem % Ket qua bang ciing cho phep xem xet quan he vi NSLD giiia cac nhdm lao ddng theo dp mdi Cu tiid, 24 Khoa htpc Xa h5i va Nhan vSn dua fren ket qua udc lugng fren ta co: • Ij = 1,63X3, ^^ '^ NSLD ciia nhdm 15-34 mdi bdng 1,63 ldn NSLD ciia nhdm 56-60 tuoi • A.^ = 1,57X3, ^^ 1^ NSLD ciia nhdm 35-55 frioi bang 1,57 ldn NSLD ciia nhdm 56-60 tudi • \ = 0,32X3, ^ ^ '^ NSLD nhdm ngudi cao tudi (tu 60 tudi frd Ien) chi bdng 0,32 ldn NSLD ciia nhdm 56-60 tudi ^^i|Bi)i)k Co thd thay, NSLD chung dugc ddng gop tir cac nhdm tudi khac la rat khac nhau, frong cd nhiing nhdm tudi gia tang vd sd lugng se lam tang VA (nhu cac nhdm 15-34 va 35-55) va cd nhiing nhdm se lam giam VA (nhom frr 56-60 va hi 60 frd len) Hinh the hidn ket qua udc lugng NSLD theo cac nhdm tudi frong giai doan 2010-2012 Nhin chung, NSLD ca nhan cd xu hudng tang theo mdi nam NSLD cao d cac nhdm tudi fre (15-34) va mirc nang suat kha thap d nhdm tir 60 tudi frd len NSLD d cac nhdm deu cd xu hudng tang, dac biet tang manh d cac nhom tudi 15-34, 35-54 va cd xu budng tang cham Iai d nhdm 55 tudi frd len Nhu vay, qua triitti bidn ddi co cau dan sd theo hudng tang ty frpng ngudi gia va giam dan ty trpng lao dpng fre se anh hudng tieu cue tdi VA cua nen kinh te neu khdng cd bat cu giai phap nao tac ddng den lam tang NSLD ddng va (iii) Do tac ddng ddng thdi tu chuydn dich ca cau lao ddng va thay ddi NSLD frong ndi bp nganh Pham Ngpc Toan (2013) [8] su dyng phuang phap phan tich SSA de ludng tac ddng tii chuyen dich ca cau lao ddng va tang trudng nang suat ndi bp cac nganh den NSLD ciia nen kinh te giai doan 2002-2012 cbo tbay: xet toan bp giai doan 2002-2012: NSLD cua nen kinh te da tang them 4,37 trieu ddng viyi tdc dp tang binh quan la 5,29%, NSLD cua npi bd nganh ddng gdp 2,32 trieu dong (chiem 53%), chuyen dich ca cau Iao ddng ddng gdp 2,18 frieu ddng (chiem 49,8%) va cac yeu td khac lai ddng gdp -0,13 trieu ddng (chiem 2,8%) Xet ve vai frd ciia cac nganh den thay ddi NSLD cho thay, frong giai doan 2002-2012, nganh cdng nghiep che bien cd vai trd quan frpng nhat frong viec tang NSLD (tang them 1,56 frieu ddng, ddng gdp 35,8%) vao muc tang them NSLD ca nudc); tiep dd la nganh ban le va dich vu (tang them 0,86 trieu ddng, ddng gdp 19,61%i), frong chi cd nganh cdng nghiep khai thac md cd NSLD giam 0,06 trieu ddng Bang the hien udc lugng ddng gdp tir chuyen dich CO can lao ddng va NSLD d mdi nhdm mdi vao tang trudng NSLD theo phuang phap SSA vdi sd lieu giai doan 2010-2012 (tmh theo gia so sanh nam 2010) NSLD a mo, nhom mc vdo tdng tru&ng NSLD NSng suit P(0) m IVdl"' Phan cac tic d^ng s(0) -m Thay , Thay \h6ni Thay 2010 I IIIIS-34 SS-Sa 5i-M eat 2010 2012 TUOI Ngudn, udc luang cua nlidin tdc gid Chuyin dich ca cdu lao dpng theo nhom tudi vd NSLD Thay ddi NSLD cua nen kinh te dugc giai thich thdng qua ydu td, la: (i) Thay ddi NSLD frong ndi bd cac nganh, (ii) Qua trinh chuyen dich co cau lao NSLB D6ng *? V f u (6 SO -2 46 -0 21 i •J-ja 4Rfr4 >: i : 440l U'S*) ?5-54 46 r itl 21 444 46S -5 :98 105 05 55-60 29 41 11 'IS 054 0,06(1 14 0,36 0,03 53 IS 56 601 43 10 23 06: 0,076 0,05 o.n 0,01 20 rctii] 43 R5 46 m 3,73 -0,N2 00 00 ' g6p % ^SLD Nguc Hinh I NSLD theo nhom luoi 2010-2012 4(5)5.2016 te2S*ViftN; lam 2012 m 14 •0S7 1) 10 •0,07 2,N4 iuQi'g „,„„;,„ -30,49 ' 100,00 lac gia Ket qua cho thay, NSLD tang them 2,84 trieu ddng (tang binh quan 3,24%/nam), dd chii yeu la tang NSLD timg nhdm mdi la 3,73 trieu ddng (ddng gdp 131,3%); chuyen dich ca cau Iao ddng la -0,82 trieu ddng theo hudng tang ty le ngudi cao tudi va giam ty le lao dpng tre (dong gdp -28,9%i); va ca hai yeu td la -0,07 trieu ddng (ddng gdp -2,4%) Yeu td lam giam NSLD chung - chii yeu la 25 K h o a h g c X a hOi v ^ N h a n vSn chuyen dich co cau lao ddng theo nhom tudi theo hudng giam ty frpng lao ddng fre va tang ty frpng lao ddng ldn mdi NSLD binh quan ciia lao dpng fre cao gap lan so vai Iao ddng Idn tudi Trong tac ddng dich chuyen lao ddng theo nhdm tudi tbeo budng giam ty ttpng lao ddng d nhdm cd nang sudt thdp sang tang ty frpng d nhdm Iao ddng cd nang sudt cao hon thi tac ddng cd sy thay ddi ty frpng lao ddng tii nhdm tudi cd tdc dp tang NSLD thap sang nhdm tudi cd tdc dp tang NSLD cao hon Kdt qua cbo thdy, can phdn mang ddu am va kha nhd Ly la van cd nhiing nhdm tudi cd NSLD tang nhanh nhimg chua tang dugc ty frpng lao ddng nen Iam giam nhip tang tnrdng NSLD tdng the Nhu vay, neu chinh sach nganh tiep tuc tap tmng vao cac nganh cd NSLD cao nbung it su dung lao ddng thi cd the se triet tieu ddng gdp ciia chuyen dich co cdu vao NSLD va vi tiid Iam giam tang trudng NSLD chung Do do, khuyen nghi nen md rdng cac nganh cd NSLD cao thdng qua he thdng giao dye, dao tao dap ling yeu cau pbat trien ciia cac nganh dd; ddng thdi, thu biit su dich chuyen lao ddng tu cac nganh cd NSLD thap sang nganh cd NSLD cao va cd lgi the canh franh Kdt qua ciing cho tbay, neu NSLD frong mdi nhdm tudi thay ddi nhanh ban so vdi su thay ddi ciia ca cau theo nhdm tudi thi mdi cd the lam tang NSLD chung cua nen kinh td Thyc td thi ty frpng dan sd cho nhdm tuoi gia dang cd xu hudng tang, nhimg miic NSLD cua nhdm lai kha thap nen can cd chinh sach tang NSLD cho cac nhdm fre tudi ciing nhu nhirng dinh hudng th6c day NSLD tii cdn fre dd ddn tudi gia thi cd miic NSLD cao va on dinh Md phdng dnh hu&ng cua bien ddi ca cdu ddn so theo nhdm tudi din thay ddi NSLD Sy thay ddi ciia NSLD la rdt nhidu ydu td nhu cdng nghe, vdn, trinh dp quan ly, ca sd tdng Tuy nhien, myc dich ciia pban tap trung vao xem xet tac ddng cua bien ddi co cdu dan sd theo nhdm tudi ddn tiiay ddi NSLD Do dd, kdt qua udc lugng khdng phan anh tdng NSLD ma chi la phdn ddng gdp ddn NSLD qua trinh bidn ddi ca cdu dan sd theo nhdm tudi tao Dy bao dan sd cua Tdng cue Thdng ke [9] cho giai doan 2009-2049 cho thdy, ca cdu dan sd tiieo nhdm se ONG NGHI Viet Nai 4(5)5.2016 tidp tuc thay ddi manh me theo Iiudng gia hda dan so, Khi CO cdu dan sd theo nhdm ludi thay ddi, gia dinh rdng NSLD o mdi nhdm tudi khdng dugc cai thien thl mpt so nhdm tudi vdn ddng gdp vao lam tang NSLD chung Hinh the hicn kdt qua md phong cho viec tang NSLD theo nhdm tudi va tac ddng tdi NSLD chung tbdng qua bicn ddi co cdu tudi dan sd vdi gia dinh la NSLD a moi nhdm tudi khdng ddi theo thdi gian •: \MD llieo iilioni :• \SLD chung 2009-2049 -non u&c hetrng cua nlwm lot Hinh cho thay, giai doan dan sd vang dien ty le dan sd fre tang len nen cd sy cai thien ve NSLD chung nhung sau budc vao giai doan gia hoa dan sd thi dong gdp cua nhdm dan sd fre vao NSLD giam xudng rd ret NSLD cua nhom 55 mdi tra len dong gop tich cue vao toan bd thdi ky md phdng nhung mirc NSLD cua nhdm tudi thap nen \iec gia tang sd luung ngudi dp tudi chi tao VA nen kinh te kha thap Trong dd ca ven nhom dan sd tao nang suat cao nhu nhdm 15-34 tudi ihi xu hudng bien ddi co cau mdi dan sd theo hudng gia hda nen t>' nhdm dan sd trt; cang giam xudng \ i the lam cho NSLD chung ciia nen kinh te Cling giam di mat dan Igi the budc \ao nam 2029, Ket luan Ngliicn cuu la nghien cuu dau lien d Viet Nam udc luong NSLD theo nhom tudi Ket qua nghien cmi da khang dinli NSLD tang la cd sy dich chuyen lao ddng lir nganh cd nang suat thap sang nganh co nang suat cao hon Tuy nhien miic dp ddng gdp vao NSLD nhu tht: nao, phu thudc nhieu vao bdi canh kmh te - xa hdi tai Ihdi diem Qua trinh bien ddi co cau dan so theo rhom tudi dien den nam 2019 se lam mat lm the vk sd lugng dan sd dd tuoi tao NSLD cao (35-54 tudi) ly (rgng dan sd a tudi bat dau 26 Khoa hgc Xa hOi v^ Nhan vSn giam Mac dii co su gia tang ve ddng gdp tdi NSLD chung frong sudt thdi ky md phdng ciia nhdm tir 55 tuoi frd Idn, nbung muc dong gdp cdn thdp, tang s6 lugng ngudi frong nhdm tudi nbung NSLD cdn d miic thdp Doi vdi nhdm Iao ddng fre (15-34 hay 3554 tudi), cd xu hudng giam dan ty frpng, nen mudn ddng gdp vao NSLD chung cbo ngdn ban va dai ban, thi tir bay gid cdn cd nhihig chuong frinh dao tao phu hgp vdi nhdm tuoi va ITnh vuc cdn dao tao Su dung lao ddng tbeo nhdm tudi hgp ly, phu hgp vdi thd frang, nang lyc se phat huy tdi da NSLD tidm nang ciia hp Bien ddi ca c3u dan sd theo budng gia bda vira la ca hpi, viia la thach thiic dd thiic ddy tang frxrdng, tao tich liiy cho ndn kinb td cuu mdi udc lugng NSLD chung cac Ipai lao ddng frong cac Ioai doanh nghiep ma chua chi tiet dugc theo nganh, hinh thiic sd hiru Nhu v|iy, thdng qua nghien cuu nay, da md phdng dugc biic tranh ve qua trinh bidn ddi ca cdu dan so theo tudi va thay ddi NSLD nhu thd nao vdi gia dmh la cac yeu td kbac tac ddng den tang NSLD la khdng ddi Neu nhu khdng cd bat cii hoat ddng nao lam thay ddi NSLD, thi qua trinh bidn ddi co cdu dan sd theo nhdm tudi se ddn den nhiing tac dpng tieu cyc ttong dai ban va chac chan se anh hudng den tang trudng kinh te [4] Hellerstein J, Neumark D, Troske K (1999), "Wages, productivity, and worker characteristics, evidence from plantlevel production ftincnons and wage equations", Journal of Labor Economics 17(3), pp.409-446 Du ket qua la mdi, nhung nghien ciiu ciing khdng franh khoi mpt so ban chd nhdt dinh nhu: nghien ciiu mdi chi udc Iugng NSLD trung bmh cua nhdm tudi cho toan bp lao dpng ma chua tinh den cac yeu td chuyen mdn ky thuat (trinh dp nghe, ITnh vyc dao tao ), gidi tinh, khu vuc cua ngudi lao dpng; thieu sd lieu tinh toan cho md hinh Mat khac, nghien fe!!2LVal J , ^ 4(5)5.2016 Tai lieu tham hhao [1] Aubert P, Crepon B (2007), "Are Older Workers Less Productive'' Firm-Level Evidence on Age-Productivity and AgeWage Profiles", Working Paper [2] Medoff J, Abraham K {1980), "Expenence, Performance, and Earnings", Quarterly Journal of Economics, 95(4) [3] Malmbei^ B (1994), "Age structure effects on economic growth: Swedish evidence", Scandinavian Economic History Review Vol.42, pp,279-295, [5] Thangavelu S, Wei Y.Y (2006), "Aging and economic growth Relevant issues to Smgapore", NUS Department of Economics SCAPE Working Paper Series, VoL13 [6] Akkemik K,A (2005) "Labor Productivity and Inter-Sec (oral Reallocation of Labor in Singapore (1965-2002)", Forum of International Development Studies [7] Timmer M P, G.J de Vries (2009), "Structural change and growth accelerations in Asia and Latin America: A new sectoral data set" Working Paper [8] Pham Ngoc Toan (2013), "NSLD Viet Nam giai iJoan 20012012: dong gop tir chuyen djch co cau lao dong va NSLD nganh", Tap chi Thong tin vd dir bdo kinh te xd hdi, 94(10), tr [9] T6ng cue Thdng ke (2009-2015), Nien gidm Thong ki Ha Noi, Nxb Thong ke ... ve NSLD giiia nam gdc va nam / la: C&c bi^n Lnl Capital) Giai tli[ch bi^n Losant(von) Loeant (lon^ lao dgng) Cdng thiic fren cho tbay, thay ddi tuyet doi ve NSLD giiia nam gdc va nam t tac dpng... thiep chinh sach phil hgp ciia chinh phu vao ttii trudng lao ddng frong giai doan trudc nam 1985 Tuy nhien, sau nam 1985, CO su hr boa thi frudng lao ddng nen su dich chuydn lao dpng lai co tac ddng... tang cimg toe dp Hp phat hien rang, phu nu co NSLD thap hon nam gidi, nhung muc tien cong cua phu nii lai thap hem rat nhieu so vdi nam gidi (tuc la khoang each ve tien cong ldn hon khoang each