THÔNG TIN TÀI LIỆU
DIEU CHINH MO H I M TANG TRl/OiNG KINH I E DE W O T BAY THU N H A P TRUNG BINH d VIET NAM Phan Thi Cong Khoa Kinh te - Lugt, tru&ng Dgi hoc Thuang mgi Email:congt@tmu eduvn Fham Thi Minh Uyen Khoa Kinh ti - Lugt trudng Dgi hgc Thieang mgi Email: uyenminh.pham@gmail com Ngay nhan: 12/10/2016 Ngay nhan ban siia: 28/10/2016 Ngay duy^t dang: 25/12/2016 Tom tat: BOI cdnh phdt trien kinh te tgi Viet Nam gdn ddy da cd nhieu bdn khodn vi viec Viet Nam da rai vdo bdy thu nhdp trung binh hay chua vd Viet Nam cdn Idm gi de khdng rai vdo bdy thu nhap trung binh Bdi viit da sir dung phuang phdp thdng ke vd so sdnh giiia nen kinh ti sdp bdy thu nhdp trung binh vd thuc trgng kinh te Viel Nam; ddng thai su dung phuang phdp phdn tich tinh huong di trd lai cho cdu hdi tren Kit qud nghiin ciru da chi cd su ldn tgi mdi quan he giira bdy thu nhdp trung binh vd tdng tru&ng kinh ti Ben cgnh dd, ket qud nghien cuu cUng khdng dinh nen kinh ti Viet Nam dang rai vao bdy thu nhap trung binh Cudi ci4ng, bdi viel de xudt dieu chinh md hinh tdng tnrang kinh ti mgt cdch todn diin vd triet de giup Viet Nam thodt khdi bdy thu nhap trung binh Tir khoa: Thu nhap trung binh Viet Nam; Md hinb tang trudng kinh te; Bay thu nhap trung binh; Thodt bdy thu nhap trung binh; Tbu nhap trung binh va tang trudng Changing economic growth model to overtake the medium income trap in Vietnam AbstractThe questions of whether Vietnam has fallen into the middle income trap and what Vietnam should to handle the situation have attracted great interest recently The author applied the methods of comparing statistics and also case analyses in order to answer these questions The findings show the existence of the relationship between middle income trap and economic growth, confirming that Vietnam is falling into the middle income trap The paper also recommends changes in Vietnam'seconomic growth model to help the country get out of the trap Keywords Middle income trap; Vietnam s middle income, economic growth model; avoid middle income trap; middle income and growth Bat van dl Trong nhirng nam gdn day thuat ngft "thu nhap trung binh" hay "bdy thu nhdp tmng binh" (the middle income trap) trd len phd biln cac cbinh sach phat tnln kinh tl ciia cac quic gia, dac biet S6 235 thdng 01/2017 la cac qudc gia Ddng A, noi ma toe phdt tnen kinb te cang cham lai kl tit nd khung hoang tai chinh tiln te 1997 (World Bank, 2012) Thudt ngu thyc sy khdng duoc dinh nghTa toan dien cdc nghien ciru ban dau vl nd Trong mdt sd trudng hgp nghien cim ma chii ylu la My vd cdc 13 klllllliy'llilllm thdp, ho|c 14 ndm ddi vdi nude cd thu nhap tnmg bhih cao (Felipe, 2012) Cdng quan dilm, Ohno (2006) cung cho rSng neu khdng thi xay dyng dugc chinh sdch vT md ndng dgng va ling phd vdi sy phan boa thu nhap xa hgi dac biet la bdi canh tu hda, tu nhan hda vd hdi nhap thi nguy ca sap biy Cling dl xdy Nhu vay, bdy thu nhap trung binh la mgt tinh trang phat trien kinh tekhi ma mdt qudc gia dat den mgt mure thu nhap bitih quan nhat dinh (do nhiing lgi the san cd) va gi^m chan tai muc thu nhap dd Bay thu nhdp trung binb xay den mdt qudc gia phat trien cbiing Iai hay thdm chi la tri he sau d^t dugc mOt muc tbu nhap trung binh 2.2 Mdi quan he giira bdy thu nhap trung binh v&i md hinh tang tru&ng kinh te Giiia bay thu nhap trung binh va tang trudng kinh te ciia mgt qudc gia cd mdi quan he mat thiet, bdi bay tbu nhap tnmg binh la mgt thdi diem, mdt giai doan qua trinh tang trudng kinh tecua nen kinb te Bay tbu nhap trung binh hinh thdnh va xay qua trinh cdng nghiep hda, hi$n dai hda nen kinh te dat nude, mgt qua trinh ma bat cir qudc gia nao cung pbai trai qua ke cd nude cd nhiing uu the Idn ve ty nhien, hdu, vi tri dia ly va tai nguyen (Ohno, 2009) Mat khac, mdi mgt giai doan phat trien kinb te gan lien vdi qua trinh cdng nghiep hda - hien dai boa lai dugc dac trung bdi mgt md hinb kinb te nhdt dinh Do vay, bay tbu nhdp trung binb cung cd mdi quan he bien cbiing vdi md binb tang trudng kinh te Cd thi cbia giai doan cua qud trinh cdng nghiep hda - bien dai hda kieu md hinb tdng trudng kinb te nhu sau: - Md hinh tang trudng kinh te theo chieu rdng (mo binh tang trudng theo sd lugng) tuang irng vdi giai doan cua qua triiib cong nghiep hda Trong dd, yeu td dau vao cua qud trinh tang trudng la sd lugng vdn ddu tu vd lyc lugng lao ddng phd tbdng (Chu Van Cdp, 2011) Dac diem ciia md binb kinh te Id ludng vdn FDl vao ddu tu d at, ngdnh san xuat ndi dia chi ddng vai trd gia cdng, lap rap san phdm gian dcm cho cac doanh nghiep nude ngodi, lyc luang Iao dgng co ham lugng tri tbiic thap - Mo binh tang trudng kinli te ket hop cd chilu rong va chilu sau (md binh tang trudng ket hgp sd lugng va chat lugng) tuang ung vdi giai doan va ciia qua trinh cdng nghiep hda, Giai dogn 2, ludng vdn FDl da dugc tich luy nen kinb te du Idn Sd 235 thdng 01/2017 de md rgng qui md san xudt cung nhu tang t^ 1? ngi dja hda chudi gia tri cung ung Cdc cdng ty nude ngoai md rgng ddu tu chuyen sdu vdi yeu cdu cao ban ddi vdi nganh cdng nghiep hd trg O giai doan nay, thu nhdp va tiln luong tang khdng nhilu vi cong ngh? quan ly vdn ngudi nude ngoai nim giG Giai dogn 3: Giai doan lyc lugng lao dgng ndi dia ti^n tiln, vdi ham lugng tri thiic cao, cac nganh san xuat cdng nghidp phat trien manh me, thay thi hdu hit cac khdu cd ylu td nude ngoai nen gia tri ndi tai tang nhanh chdng, nin san xudt chuyen tu gia cdng sang sang tao san xuat, vdi cac sdn phdm chdt lugng cao, xuat khau va tao siic canh tranh vdi cac ddi thii qudc te; thu nhap, tien lucmg tang nbanh chdng - Md hinh tdng hudng kinh tl theo chieu sdu (md hinb tang dirdng chdt lirgng) hrong ung vdi giai doan cua qua trinh cdng nghiep hda Trong dd, tdng trudng kinb tl dya tr8n ylu td ddu vao la tien bd khoa hgc cdng nghe vd hieu qua sii dung von, lao dgng (Chu Van Cdp, 2011) NIU mgt qudc gia khdng the thay ddi nang suat Iao dgng ciia chiidi minh thdng qua viec chuyin ddi tii nin kinh tl cd ham lugng tri thiic va cdng nghe thdp, sang nen kinh te trinh cao thi qudc gia se khdng the vugt dugc ngudng thu nhdp trung binh va ngugc lai Nguyen nhan co ban cua tinh tr^ng vuong bdy thu nhdp trung binh dugc md ta cd the bao gdm cac vdn de sau: (1) Hien tugng mdt qudc gia ti6p tuc tri md hinh tang trudng kinh te dua vao viec tdng trudng vdn dau tu toan xa hgi hieu qua vdn dau tu bl suy giam; (2) Ngudn nban lyc chu yeu dugc khai thdc d sd lugng ma chua cbii trgng den ky nang, trinh do, chat lugng dan den nang sudt Iao ddng kem; (3) Khoa hgc ky thudt lac bdu, nang lyc ddi mdi sang tao chdm cdi thien va tang trudng kinh te kbdng gan lien vdi muc tieu phat tnen ngudi; (4) Chinb sach edng nghiep kbdng chat lugng (Ohno, 2006 va 2009) Nhu vay, nlu mdt qudc gia tri md binh kinb te theo chieu rgng thi chac chan se rai vao bdy thu nhap trung binh sdm, tham chi cd the bay tbu nhap trung binb xudt bien vao giai doan cua qud trinh tang trudng, hie la qudc gia dd khdng thi vugt len thu nhap trung binb cao thai gian dai, mat uu the ve chi phi san xuat thdp, Ddi lap vdi tinh ti'ang dd, qudc gia nao cang sdm dilu cbinb md hinh kinb Kiniiiyiiiillrii'n nhilu bdt cap, nang luc canh tranh cham dugc cai thien Thyc trang mo hinh tang trudng kinh te ciia Viet Nam dugc phdn tich dudi cac ngi dung sau: tl theo chieu sau thi kha nang thoat biy thu nhdp trung binh cang cao Kha nang s|p bSy thu nh?p trung binh va mo hinh tSng truwng kinh t l cua Vift Nam 3.1.1 Tdng tne&ng kinh te vd thu nhap binh quan dau ngu&i D I tea Idi cho cau hdi nghien ciiu Viet Nam da Mdt nhung tyu quan trgng nhat troag hay chua sap bdy thu nhap trung binh, bai viet xdy dung gia thuyit tbdng ke: H„: Nin kinh ti Viet Nam qua trinh ddi mdi d Vi8t Nam la tri tdc tdng da sgp bay thu nhdp trung binh Ben canh dd, bai trudng GDP hang ddu khu vuc, nhd vay thu vilt lya chgn phuong phap chiing minh gid thuyet nhdp binh qudn ddu ngudi cung khdng nguog tang hen bdng cdch danh gid cac dac diem ciia nen kinh len Tu nam 2008, Vi8t Nam vdi miic Ihu nhap bmh tl Viet Nam hien so sanh vdt cdc tieu chi cua quan ddu ngudi 1018 USD/ngudi/namdd chinh thirc mdt nin kinb tl dugc cho la da sap bdy thu nhap gia nhdp nhdm cac nude cd thu nhdp tnmg binh frung bmh ciia Ohno (2006 va 2009) dua tren sd lieu Hang nam, cbi tieu thu nhdp trung binh cd thay doi, nhung tdng trudng ludn ndm gidi ban thu nhap tbdng ke thu cap trung binh thdp (Theo hinh 1, tdc tang hudng 3.1 Thuc trgng mo hinh tang trirang kinh te kinh tl ciia Viet Nam td nam 2013 - 2016 da tang eua Viet Nam ddn, cu thi ndm 2013 la 1.910 USD va 5,54%; nam Md hinh tdng truang kinh ti Viet Nam thuc thi 2014 la 6,07%, nam 2015 la 2200 USD va tdc tie 1986 din dugc cac ky Dai hdi Dang khdng tang trudng la 6,87%), theo Trdn Van Thg (2012) va dinh la md hinh tdng tru&ng kinh ti theo chiiu rdng World Bank (2016) Theo dac diem ve thu nhdp hmh dua tren ca s& khai thdc lgi thi vi tdi nguyin thien qudn cua cac nude qua trinh bat kip, Viet Nam nhiin, ngudn nhan luc ddi ddo, gid re (Chu Van cd the dang d giiia, cudi giai doan I hoac kha quan cap, 2011) Md hinh kinh tl da tao tdc nhat la ddu giai doan tang trudng kinh te kha cao, thu nhdp binb qudn 3.1.2 Chinh sdch phdt triin nganh cdng nghiep ddu ngudi dugc cai thien kha nbanh nhung lai bdc Id nhilu ban che nhu khdng tao siic bdt thyc su vd hieu qud sir dung vdn ddu tu dl keo gdn khodng each vdi cac nude phat trien di Cimg vdi tang trudng kinb te co cdu kinh te cua trudc, chdt lugng tang trudng thap ludng vdn FDl Viet Nam da cd nhiing budc chuyen minh ddng ke vao Viet Nam cd ty Ie ndi dia hda rdt thap nen nd Ty trgng eac nganh phi ndng nghiep ddng gop vao kbdng trd dpng lyc manh me de cai thien tbu GDP dugc nang len rd ret Trinh phdt trien ciia nhap binh quan dau ngudi, tien luong va nang cao nen kinh te timg budc dugc ndng len, ty trgng nganh chat lugng ngudn lao ddng Nen tang co ban cua cdng nghiep va dich vu tang trudng nbanh, dich tang trudng (bao gdm: on dinh kinb te vT mo, the chuyen nen kinh te Viet Nam tir ndng nghiep thuan che kinb te xa bgi, giao due, y te, co sd ba tang) cdn niy sang nganh cdng nghiep, dich \"u lam chu dao Hinh 1: T6e tang trudng Idnh te cua \ i l t Ni ^ 9.00 8.56 •'t •S ^ 8,00 7.50 7.0Q 50 44 , „ 8.46 8.23 ••"'X \ \ \ 79/ 7.34 > r , „ „ 7.08 - > ^ 79 s g j ^ ^ ^ r ' • * A23 30 "b ~ 00 ^5§0 \^ = 5-00 " ^ 50 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2010 2012 2014 2016 Xani Nguon Tinh todn tir sd lieu ciia Tdng cue thdng ke So 235 thdng 01/201" kinll leilml i Tuy nhien, nghiSn cuu vl cdng nghiep Viet Nam va bdy thu nhap trung binh ctia Ohno (2009), gia dinh rang viec tliilu vdng mdt chinh sdch cdng nghiep cd chdt lugng la nguySn nhdn ddn din biy thu nhap trung bmh Theo dd, dng ddnh gia chdt lugng chinh sach cdng nghiep Viet Nam bdng each xem xet td hgp gdm 10 tiSu chi sau: (i) ngudn nhdn lyc cdng nghiep; (ii) Su phat hnin ciia doanh nghi?p nuoc; (in) mdi trudng kinh doanh; (iv) nang lugng va logistics; (v) khuyen khich xudt khau; (vi) quang ba chiln luge dau tu tryc tilp nude ngodi; (viii) cac khu cdng nghidp; (viii) cac nganh cdng nghiep hd trg va cdc doanh nghiep dia phuang ket ndi vdi dan tu tryc tilp nude ngoai; (ix) nang sudt, cdng nghe va ddi mdi; va (x) tieu chuan va thir nghiem Vi tbi, cd the thdy, chinh sach cdng nghiep Viet Nam chua chdt lugng, va day ciing dugc danh gid la mgt nguyen nhan ddy nin kinh tl Viet Nam sap bdy tbu nhdp trung binh Mat khdc, hiiu qud ddu tu chua cao ddng nghia vdi chdt lucmg tdng truang thdp Hieu qua sic dung vdn dugc danh gia thdng qua he sd ICOR, the hi?n moi quan he gi&a dau tu va tang trudng kinb te Nhin chung cbi sd ICOR ciia Viet Nam cdn cao cac giai doan Chi sd ICOR cua kinh te Viet Nam tir miic 7,04 giai doan 2001- 2005 va miic 6,18 giai doan 2006 - 2010, giai doan 2013-2015 Id 5,78 (Tdng cyc thdng ke, 2015) Xet ve tirng dy an, cdn Ididng it dy an ddu tu cd hieu qua thdp, khdng dap ung dugc yeu cau phat trien kinh teva xa hdi, ca biet cd nhu-ng du dn, ndi dung dau tu triing lap, chdng cheo, hoac gdy cdn trd, lam mat hieu qua cua cac dy an da dugc ddu tu trudc He sd phan anh nen kinb te Viet Nam phat trien theo chieu rgng, tire cbii yeu dya vao su tang vdn, it dua vao su gia tang hieu qua su dung lao ddng va vdn thong qua iing dung khoa hgc cdng nghe vao sdn xudt va qudn Iy Neu nen kmh te khong thay doi ve rad binb tang trudng va van tri sy tang trudng theo chieu rgng tbi se rat sdm (vdi sy thay doi tirng cua the gidi sy canh tranh cang khdc liet giiia cdc qudc gia) chiing ta mat di Igi thi so sanh so vdi cac nude phat triln di sau khiln cho cac nha ddu tu nude ngoai se rdi bd va chuyin hudng ddu tu sang cac qudc gia khdc Llic do, chiing ta khd cd the hi tdc tang truong nhu hien t^i 3.L3 Nang luc cgnh tranh khdng dugrc cdi thien nhieu Theo Klaus (2015), bao cao ciia Diln dan Kinh te the gidi dugc thyc hien d 140 nude ve chi sd canh tranh toan cdu dua tren nbieu ylu to khac nhau, bao gdm nhdm try cdt: Tbi che, ca sd ba tdng, mdi trudng kinh tl vT md, y te va giao due ca ban, giao due bdc cao vd dao tao, hieu qua thi trudng hang hda, bieu qua thi trudng Iao ddng, mirc phdt trien ciia thi trudng tai chinh, mure dp san sang cdng nghe, quy md tbi trudng, muc phat trien doanh nghiep va ndng lyc sang tao Bao cdo cho thdy, Viet Nam diing thu 56 tren bang xep hang nang luc canh tranh toan cau giai doan 2015-2016, tang 12 bdc so vdi vi tri 68 giai doan 2014 - 2015, miic tang ve nang luc canh tranh kbdng cao, thii bang cdn d mirc trung binb ciia the gidi Nhung chi sd nay, mgt phdn nao dd chi rd, nang lyc canh tranh toan cdu cua Viet Nam chua dugc cdi thien nhieu 3.2 Ddnh gid kha ndng sap bdy thu nhap trung binh a Vi$t Nam Tir 2011, tai van kien dai hdi XI cua Dang Cdng san Viet Nam,da xac dinh: "chuyen ddi md hinh tang trudng tir chii yeu theo chilu rdng sang phat trien hgp ly giira chieu rgng va chieu sau, chii trgng ndng cao hieu qua, chdt lugng" Nhu vay, Viet Nam da chuyen ddi md hinh kinh te sang ket hgp sd lugng va chdt lugng dugc gan nam Tuy nhien, day mdi la giai doan ddu ciia qud trinh chuyen ddi rad hinh tang trudng kinh te, nen kinh te vdn mang nhieu dau dn cua mo binh kinh te sd lugng, dan den cd nhieu dau hieu cbo thay Viet Nam cd khd nang cao dd sap bay tbu nhap trung binh bao gdm: Bang I Hieu qua ddu tu toan nen kinh te \'iet Nam Chi tieu 2001-2005 2006-2010 2011-2012 2013-2015 Toe tang GDP/nSm (%) 7,51 7.01 5,8 6,02 Toe tang dau tu/nam (%) 14,13 13,5 2,5 11,1 ICOR (ticli luy tai san) 4,62 5,06 5,01 5,4 ICOR (dau ttr) 7,04 6.18 4,6 5,78 Xgiioii: Tinh todn fir so lieu cua Tong cue ihdng ki! So 235 thiing 01/2017 killllllVl'll Bang 2: Kich ban mo hinh tdng trudng kinh te va kha nSng sap bay thu nhap trung binh cua Viet Nam Kha Kha Thu nhdp/ nguoi du kien Toe dd tang Kich ban md nang nang (USD theo PPP) hinh Tang tnrdng trudng trung thirc sap bay Nam Nam Nam binh nam Idnh te lii^n thu 2050 2040 dulden 2035 nhdp trung binh Mo hinb ket hgp 11.000* Kha Cbdc 10.000* 8.500* Giii nhu bien so lugng va chat quan chan lugng nhung thien t^i (khoang ve so lugng (duy 5%) tri md hinh hien tai) 12.000 14.000 15.000 Rdt khd Cao >= 7% nam thuc hien Mo hinh ket hgp sd lugng va chat lugng nhimg thien ve chat lugng (cai each manh me) Xdp xi 5%/nam 15.000 18.000 22.500* 6Vc./ndm 18.000 22.000 27.000* Tham vpng Thap Rat tham vgng Rdt thdp Ngudn dybao Tdcgjd (so lieu ed dau *) Td chiic cae nude hgp tac vapbat trien kinh fl (OECD) Ngdn hang the gidi Ngan hang the gidl Rat kho thyc hien Nguon: fVorld Bank (2016), OECD (2014) vd linh todn ciia cdc tdc gid >= 7% nam 22.000 25.000 Thu- nhdt, sie tdng cua thu nhdp binh qudn dau ngudi cham, ddn tdi kha nang da qud thdi ban cho phep Viet Nam van chua vugt len trd thdnh nude cd tbu nhap cao tren the gidi Kich ban md hinh tang trudng va kha nang sap bdy tbu nhap tmng binb cua Viet Nam dugc torn tdt qua bang Theo cdc kjch ban dugc xay dung d bang Viet Nam hien dang tri md hinh tang trudng kinh te nhdn so lugng vdi toe tang trudng kinh tl xoay xung quanh 5% Vdi mo hinb kinh tl nhu thi (va klia nang thay ddi md hinh kinh tl khdng quyit liet), Viet Nam se khdng the vuat bay thu nhap trung binh va kha nang roi vao bay la chdc chdn Mirc tbu nhdp binh quan ddu ngudi cua Viet Nam din 2020 se la 3.500 USD chi luang duong Malaysia nam 1992 va Thai Lan nam 2007 Din nam 2030, mirc thu nhdp binh quan dau ngudi dy kiln cua Viet Nam la 6.034 USD Viet \ani cd kha nang cao roi vao bdy thu nhap trung binh Thir hai ndng sudl lao dong cua Viet Nam thap Sd 235 thdng 01/2017 31.500* Rat thap Ngan hang the gidi Theo Tdng cue thong ke (2015), tdng sd lao dong tir 15 tudi trd len chua qua dao tao chuyen mon ky thuat chiem 81,8%; trinh trung cdp chilm 3,7%; cao dang chiem 2.1% va dai hgc trd len chilm 7.6% tdng so gdn 60 trieu Iao ddng ca nude Hien d Viet Nam, viec ndng cao chdt lugng nguon lyc Iao ddng, cdn yeu so vdi khu \-uc va the gidi Ty le dau tu cho cac boat ddng nghien cuu va triln kbai binh qudn so vdi GDP cdn qua thap so vdi khu vuc va the gidi: chi cho khoa bgc - cong nghe khoang 2% ngan sach nha nude tuang ducmg 0,5% GDP (Trung Qudc 17% GDP; Brazil 13% GDP; ) (OECD, 2014) Cac boat ddng khoa hoc cdn chua gan lien vdi san xuat phuc vu yeu cdu ddi mdi chat lugng san xuat va ndng cao nang sudt Iao dgng Ngoai ra, boat dgng khoa hgc cdn mdt can doi theo nganh nghe Imh vyc dan den khoa hgc cdng nghe chua trd ddng luc tbiic ddy ddi mdi chat lugng san xudt Nhu vdy, can cu vao cac diera cua nen kinh te so kinlili'iliallriPii Hmh 2: GDP/ ngirdi cua Vi^t Nam \k cac nude khu vuc ASEAN - > Viel Nam -H»—Malaysia ^ Thai Lan 30000 25000 ^ 20000 15000 - • ^ ' 10000 —a 5000 1990 1995 2000 N/ 2005 2010 2015 2020 2035 2050* 12000 •VietNam 118 288 402 639 1114 2109 3500 6034 ' Malaysia 2550 4612 4287 5599 8920 12127 16080 23986 •Thai Lan 1571 2846 2028 2906 5063 5426 6839 9665 Ngudn: World Bank (2016), OECD (2014) vd tinh todn cita cdc tdc gid sanh vdi cdc tieu cbi cua mgt nen kinb te dugc cho la da s?ip bdy thu nhap trung binb qua trinh bdt kip cdc nude ma Ohno (2006) xdy dung, bai viet chi rang khdng cd ly bac bd gia thuyet H^ vd khang dinh nen kinb te Viet Nam dang sap bdy thu nhdp trung binb va chi cd each thay ddi manh me md hinh kinh te mdi giiip cbiing ta vugt bay Dieu chinh md hinh tdng trirdmg kinh t€ vdi w o t bay thu nhap trung binh d Vift Nam dd, bai viet de xuat dieu chinh md hinh tdng trudng kinh te Viet Nam qua giai doan (cbi tiet Hinb 3) Qua nhirng pban tich tren, Viet Nam cd the da dang bdy tbu nhdp trung binh, sau 10-15 nam nira tang trudng kinb te se chdm lai nbieu neu nbu khdng cd nhiing banb ddng thay ddi quyet liet ve md binb tang trudng kinb te tir bay gid (Ohno, 2009; Worid Bank, 2016) Bang cbo thay Viet Nam pbai thyc bien md binb tang trudng kinb te nhdn manh chat lugng, Idy nang cao nang sudt Iao ddng, ndng cao bieu qua sit dung cac ngudn lyc va tang sue canh tranh ciia nen kinh te lam muc tieu bang ddu nham vira dam bao phat trien kinh te ben vii:ng Viet Nam da thuc hien md hinh kinb te cbii trgng dau tu tir 2011 (nhdn manh vao sd lugng) va dang chuyen doi sang md binb tang trudng kinh te ket hgp giiia sd lugng va chat lugng De thoat bay thu nhap trung binh, Viet Nam phai quyet tam cai each manh me md hinh tang trudng kinb te, tien tdi md hinh tang trudng kinb te chat lugng hoan loan Theo cac kich ban ma nhdm nghien cuu dua ra, de tien tdi miic tieu 2035 trd nude co thu nhdp cao, vice cai each manh me nen kinh te phai duoc tien banh theo cdch tiep can "tuan tu, tiem tien va dac biet khdng gdy cii sdc Idn cho toan xa hdr' Do Cd thi tdm tdt hod md hinh tdng tnrang kinh ti ndy nhu sau: - Giai doan 2011-2020: thuc bien md binb tang trudng kinb tl ket hgp sd lugng va chdt lugng; - Giai doan 2020-2030: thuc bien md hinh tdng trudng kinh tl ket hgp nhdn chdt lugng; - Giai doan 2030-2045: thyc bien md hinh tang trudng kinh te chdt lugng (1) Quy hoach Iai chien luge phat trien cdng nghiep gan lien vdi ddu tu manh me cho khoa bgc cdng nghe; trudc het la tang cudng ddu tu pbat trien cdng nghiep phu trg, tien tdi phat trien cdng nghiep npi dia lam dgng luc thiic ddy cac nganh kinh te kbac Them vao do, qudc gia cdn cdi thien nang luc ddi mdi sdng tao nude, bao gdm: cai thien cbinb sach ve ddi mdi sang tao; tang cudng quan tri cdng he Ibong doi radi sdng tao va tang cudng ngudn nhan lyc cho ddi mdi sang tao (2) Ddu tu trgng diem cho giao due, khoa bgccdng nghe, xa hdi hda manh me ngudn luc ddu tu cho ITnh vyc gop phan nang cao chat lugng ngudn lao ddng va tang ndng sudt Iao dgng, xdy dyng thi trudng giao due thyc su (3) Tai ca cau nganh kinh tl, tai co cau ddu tu todn xa bgi, tien tdi dimg xuat khdu nguyen vat lieu thd, chuyen ddn sang nganh kinh tl xanh, co gia tri gia tang cao (4) Md hinh tang trudng kinb tl theo hudng than So 235 thdng 01/2017 Illlll'JIlilltril'!! Hinh 3: Dilu chinh mo hinh tang trirdug kinh te qua tirng giai doan Giai doan 2030-2045 Giai do^n 2020-2030 Giaiaoan2011-2D20 C(j c4u kinh te bha vung Tang tmrmg dira vao noi lyc iK Tai ca cau diu tu toan x3 h^i Tai cir cau doanh nghiep nha Tai CO clu tin tmong Tai chinh-Ngin hang Phai tnln mjnh cQng nghifp noi dia va cong nghiep phy tro TSng dau tir cho giao dye va cdng nghe t / D§u tu ddt ph^ cbo khoa hgc cong nghe, ph^E trien manh me th| Inrimg giao dye Phat triSn cong nghiep phu trg Cong nghe s^ch, ham luyng tri thite cao Oiing xuat khau nguyen vat lieu tho a^'^-^ - - / ^ Till tnrong giao due phat tri&i loan difn, khoa hoc - cong nghe hien d|u Tfii Cff c§L nganh kinh te Muc tieu bao ve moi tnicmg va phat Dien nguoi ta hang diu Phan ph6i cong bang, an sinh xa h$i bien dai, gia tn cao ^ ^ Phat tnen mo hinh lang tniong Y Ie, van hoa, the thao phat ¥1* Mo hinh tang trir&ng liil hpp Mo hinh lang Irir&ng liel hap nhan dial lirffng Md liinh lang trudng Iheo chat licffng Ngudn: De xudt cua cdc tdc gid thien vdi mdi trudng: tdng trudng kinh te di ddi vdi sir dung hgp ly va tiet kiem tai nguyen; nang cao khd ndng tdi sinh tdi nguyen; phdng, chdng suy thoai, d nhilm moi trudng, coi trgng tang trudng kinh tl xanh, khuyen kbich san xudt vd tieu diing sach (5) Md hinh tang trudng kinb te mdi hudng tdi muc tieu phat trien ngudi: tang trudng kinh tl gan vdi phat trien xa hdi, pban phdi binb dang, phat trien he thdng an sinh xa hgi, bao dam binh ddng ddn tdc va binb dang gidi Thyc hien hieu qua mo hinh la budng di nhat giilp Viet Nam thoat khdi bdy thu nhdp binh va budng tdi pbat triln bin vimg nin kinh te Kit luan Viet Nam sau nhieu nam ddi mdi cd thi da roi vao bdy tbu nliap trung binh ma nin kinh tl vdn chii yen dua vao khai thac cac nguin luc gia re, xuat khau ndng san ddc canh va nguyen \at lieu thd, so cbi, hoac lulng vdn FDl hay vien trg cua nude ngoai De vugt bdy thu nhap trung binh, Viet Nam cdn dat nhirng muc tieu cu thi cho qudc gia hay So 235 thdng 01/2017 doanh nghiep Viet Nam can dieu chinh md binh tang trudng kinb te, budng tdi md hinh tdng trudng hien dai Md hinh tang trudng hien dai dat cdc muc tieu chat lugng (ca cdu, hieu qua, nang lyc canh tranh, vi the cua n6n kinb te he thdng pban cong Iao dgng qudc te va khu vuc, ) len vi tri uu tien hang dau so vdi cac muc tieu tang trudng san lugng De budng tdi md binh tang trudng kinh te nhdn chat lugng, Viet Nam can tap tmng thyc hien cac chinh sdch cu the nhu: Ndng cao chat lugng ngudn nhdn lyc, tdng nang sudt lao ddng, trinh dd khoa hgc va cdng nghe, tang cudng anh budng cua cac nhdn to ndng sudt tdng hgp nang cao bieu qua su dung \ on hudng boat dgng ciia nen kinb te theo cdc nganh, cac Imh vuc cd gia tri gia tang, giam chi pbi trung gian, khai thac Igi the san xudt san phdm cdng nghe cao, thyc hien dong bd hod qua trinh khai thac va che bien san pham De thyc hien dugc nhiing dieu do, can tang cudng dau tu hon niia theo chieu sau doi vdi cac nguon lyc lam nen tang cho tang tiirdng ben \ijng ddi ban hinhliAllrieii Tai li^u tham Ichao Agenor, P.R.& Aizenraan,! (2010), 'Aid volatility and poverty traps'Journal ofDevelopment Economics, 91,1-7 Chu Vdn Cdp (2011), 'Dli mdi md binh tang hudng kmh tl theotinhthdn dsii hgi XI cua Bang,'JCy yiu hgi thdo "Van Kien dgi hgi Ddng: Mgt sd vdn di ly lugn vd thuc tiin ", Tap chi Cong san Ha Ndi Felipe, J (2012), 'Tracking the Middlehiconie Trap: What is It, Who is m It, and Why? Part 1', ADB Economics Working Paper Series No 306, ADB, March 2012 Gill, I & Kharas, H (2007), An East Asian Renaissance Ideas for Economic Growth, Worid Bank, Washmgton D.C Klaus, S (2015), 'The Global Competitiveness Report 2015-2016', World Economic Forum, truy cap ldn culi 30 thang ndm 2016, tii OECD (2014), Khoa hgc, cong nghe vd ddi m&i sdng tgo a VietNam, Bao cao tdng quan Ha Ndi Ohno, K (2006), Hogch dinh chinh sdch cong nghiep d Thdi Lan Malaixia vd Nhgt Bdn: Bdi hgc cho cdc nhd hogc dinh chinh sdch cda Viet Nam Dien dan phat trien Viet Nam, Ha Ngi Ohno, K (2009), Bay thu nhdp trung binh: NhOng grriy cho chien luge cong nghiep hoa a Ddng A vd Chdu Phi, Die dan Phat Uiln GRIPS, Tokyo Ting cue thing ke (2015), Tinh hinh kinh lixa hot ndm 2010-2015, ldn cudi 30 thang nam 2016, tir Trin Van Tho (2012), 'Bay thu nhap trung binh hi cac nude ASEAN'.rap chi thoi dgi mdi, 24, 48-78 Woo, W.T (2009), Getting Malaysia Out of the Middle-Income Trap, Mimeo, University of California Davis Woo, W.T (2011), 'Understanding the Middle-Income Trap in Economic Development: The Case of Malaysia', Presentation, The 2011 World Economy Asia lecture University of Nottingham Globalization and Economic Policy Conference, January 13"* World Bank (2009), Vietnam Enterprise Survey, Washington, DC World Bank (2012), World Development Indicators, World Bank: Washington D.C World Bank (2016), Viet Nam 2035: Hirang tai Thinh vuong Sdng tgo, Cong hdng vd Ddn chit Ngan hang The gid tai Vi?t Nam, Nha xuat ban Hong Dire, Ha Ngi So 235 thang 01/2017 -' killllll'J'llill ... te kinh tl ciia Viet Nam td nam 2013 - 2016 da tang eua Viet Nam ddn, cu thi ndm 2013 la 1.910 USD va 5,54%; nam Md hinh tdng truang kinh ti Viet Nam thuc thi 2014 la 6,07%, nam 2015 la 2200 USD... kinh te va kha nSng sap bay thu nhap trung binh cua Viet Nam Kha Kha Thu nhdp/ nguoi du kien Toe dd tang Kich ban md nang nang (USD theo PPP) hinh Tang tnrdng trudng trung thirc sap bay Nam Nam... thu nhdp trung binh cd thay doi, nhung tdng trudng ludn ndm gidi ban thu nhap tbdng ke thu cap trung binh thdp (Theo hinh 1, tdc tang hudng 3.1 Thuc trgng mo hinh tang trirang kinh te kinh tl
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