Doi ngheo bdt binh dang va mure song dan ca cdp xa d Viet Nam TRAN QUANG TUYEN Jdi viit sit dung dUlieu tii cudc Tong diiu tra ndng, ldm vd thuy san (2011 RAFC) ndm '2011 i^'ddnh gid tdc ddng cua mite sdng ddn cii vd bdt binh dang tdi nghko doi d edc xd cua Viit Nam Kit qud nghiin cihi cung cdp mat sdhdm y chinh sach hihi ich cho Viit Nam Tfl k h d a : ngheo cdp xd, bdt binh dang, chi tiiu, ty li ngheo, dd sdu cua ngheo, ndng thdn Viit Nam Gidi t h i e u Xda ddi, giam nghdo va nang cao mflc sd'ng dan cu la mue tidu ehinh cua mgi qud'e gia dang phat trien Lf thuyet eung nhfl eae bling chflng thflc nghidm chi rang ddi nghdo phu thudc vao tang trfldng t h u nhdp va mflc ba't binh d&ng (RavalHon, 2001) Tfing trfldng thu nhap la dieu kidn can dd ndng cao mflc sd'ng ddn cfl va tfl dd giup cho ngfldi dan thoat ngheo Tuy nhidn, neu tang trfldng thu nhdp chi tap trung cho mot sd it ngfldi thi tang trfldng chfla b a n da lam giam ngheo (Son, 2004) Dieu dd h a m y rang phdn p h ^ thu nhap hay mflc blit binh dang eiing ed vai trd quan trgng giam ngheo Ndi each khac, tang trfldng kinh te se giflp cho giam nghdo manh hdn neu bSit binh d4ng d mflc vfla phai hoac giam di thdi k^ phat trien kinh td RavalHon va Chen, 2003; Warr, 2005) Da cd nhidu nghidn cflu vd tac dgng cua tang trudng thu nhdp va bilt binh dang tdi giam ngheo d nhidu qud'e gia dang p h a t trien (Ahmed Raza Cheema va Maqbool H Sial, 2012) Khi tang trudng t h u n h a p ed tac dgng tich cue tdi giam ngheo d nhidu nfldc dang phat tridn thi baft binh dang cd tac dgng iam gia tang ddi ngheo d mgt so' nfldc (Eastwood va Lipton, 2002; Pasha, Palanivel, Chaudhry, va Khan, 2003; Ram, 2007; Warr! 2000) Chau A, nhidu qudc gia dat dfldc cdng giam nghdo giai doan taiig 18 trfldng tiiu nhap k h a cao b^t binh d^ng vdn gia tang N h u vay mflc giam nghdo dudng nhfl phu thudc nhieu vao tdc tang trfldng t h u nhdp hdn la mflc dd giam thidu bat binh d i n g (Hafiz vk Thangavel, 2004) Tuy nhien, t h a n h tflu giam nghdo se tdt hdn neu nhfl mflc bSit binh dang thd'p hdn thdi k^ dau cua cdng cugc cai each d cdc nfldc dang phat tridn (Hafiz va Thangavel, 2004) O Viet N a m ed h a i n h d m chinh nghidn cflu vd ddi ngheo Nhdm thfl nhSit thudng phdn tich d c^p dd hg gia (finh qua vide sfl dung dfl Hdu tfl hg gia dinh (Fritzen, 2002; Kang va Imai, 2012; Magrini va Montalbano, 2012; RavalHon va Van de WaUe, 2008; Van de WaUe va Cratty, 2004) Nhdm thfl hai thfldng p h a n tich cae n h a n - t d tac ddng tdi ngheo vdi cdp dd nghidn cflu d c^p viing nhu hay huydn (McCaig, 2011; Minot, Baulch va Epprecht, 2006) Tuy nhidn, vdi sfl hieu biet cua tac gia thi cho tdi nay, chfla cd nghidn cflu nao xem xet tdc ddng eua mfle ehi tieu va bat binh dang tdi ddi ngheo d cKp d§ ddn vi hanh chinh nhd nha't - cdp xa cua Viet Nam Hvi l i e u v a phflcTng p h a p 2,1 DU lieu Chi tidu cho tieu dflng hay thu nhdp cua hd gia ^ n h dfldc sti dung bien nhdlt d l Trdn Quang T\iy6i, TS., Tnr&ng dai hoc Kinh td, Dai hgc Qudc gia Hd Nfli NghlSn ciiu Klnh t4sg (465) - ThSng 2/2017 Bil ngheo, bat binh dang , lfldng mflc song vd khia canh kJTih t d cua dan cU (Deaton, 1997) Trong nghien cflu nay, tac gia sfl dung chi tieu tidu dung cua cac hd gia dinh (ggi t i t la chi tieu) de tinh toan cac ehi so phan dnh mflc song va bat binh dang kinh te thay vi sfl dung t h u nha.p ho gia dinh Dd la vi chi tieu p h a n an"h mflc sdng hay t h u nhap tdt hdn ve dai b a n t h u n h a p chl p h a n anb mfle sdng hay t h u nhdp t a i mdt thdi diem n h a t rfinb (Goodman va Oldfield, 2004) Ngoai ra, dfl Heu khao sat ve chi tidu it gap phai van de vd sai sd Ifldng hdn so vdi dfl Heu vd t h u n h a p va vay thfldng dfldc dung de Ifldng t ^ hdn vd mflc sd'ng hg gia «tinli (Deaton, 1997) O cac nfldc dang phat trien, dfl Heu t h u n h a p c6 xu hudng it dang t i n cay bien ddng t h u n h a p ehu k j thu hoach d cac viing ndng thdn hoac cac l u d r ^ t h u nhdp khdng thudng xuydn tfl khu vflc phi chinh thflc ldn khu vflc dd thi va khd khan viec t i n h toan t h u nhap cho cac hoat ddng tfl tao vide lam (Coudouel, Hentschel va Wodon, 2002) Khd kbqn chinh nghidn cflu la lam the' nao de fldc tinh dfldc cac chi sd nhfl ty Id nghdo, mflc cha tidu binh quan dau ngfldi va mflc bat binh dang d cap xa vdi chinh xac tdt nhat De t m h toan cac chi so trdn cua mot xa chinh xac, ddi hdi phai cd dfl Hdu ve chi tidu cua cae hd gia finh xa Tuy nhidn, sd Heu chi tieu chi dfldc t h u thap tarong cae cudc dieu t r a chon mdu cd kich thfldc mau nhd va v^y se gap phai v & de ldn vd sai sd ludng t i n h toan ehi sd halt bhih dang d cap xa (Trgji vk cdng sfl., 2017) De giai quydt thach thflc nay, chflng tdi sfl dung phUdng phap udc Ifldng vdi khu vflc dia If nhd phat t r i l n bdi Elbers, Lanjouw va Lanjouw (2002; 2003) Day la nhflng n h a nghien cflu dau tien da fldc tinh md binb chi tieu tfl dfl Hdu dieu t r a chgn mdu hd gia ft^nb va sau ap dung md hinh Udc Ifldng vdi bd dfl Heu tfl tong dieu t r a dan sd de fldc tinh chi so ba't binh ddng d ctfp xa Tac gia da sfl dung dfl Hdu tfl Tong dieu t r a ndng, ldm va thuy san (RAFC) nam 2011 va dfl Hdu NghiSn ctiu Wnh tgsS2 (465) - ThSng 2/2017 dfldc cudc tHeu t r a hg gia dinh Viet Nam la tfl khao sat mflc sdng (VHLSS) ham 2010 cua Tdng cue Thdng kd, bao gdm 9.399 ho gia dinh 2.2 PhiiOngphdp tinh todn PhUdng p h a p t:inh toan cac chi sd" vd chi tieu, ddi ngheo v a bSit binh dang cdp xa cd the dfldc md t a cac bfldc sau day Ddu tien, ehung ta dinh nghia cae bien giai thich dfldc stt dung phd bien d cudc tdng fieu t r a va dieu t r a hd gia tfinh Cac bien cd the so sanh ve djnh nghia va gia tri thong ke trung binh Cac bien thdng thfldng cd the bao gdm cac bidn cap hd gia dinb va cac bidn ciCp xa Tiep theo dd, chflng ta tien h a n h hdi quy mflc chi tieu binh quan d^u ngfldi dffl vdi cae bid'n dfldc lfla chgn bllng each stt dung dfl Hdu tfl khao sat hd gia dinh nhfl sau: ln()'^) = ^ i c ^ + Z , r + £ ' ^ (1) Trong phfldng t r i n h (1), lnjij,) la logarit cua chi tieu binh quan hd gia (Hnh thfl i xa c, Xj^ la t a p hdp cac bid'n sd ve dac ' diem c^p hd gia dinh, Z^ la bien sd dac diem e^p xa, p va y v a tap hdp h e sdhdi quy, EJ, la sai sd md hinh Trong nghien cflu cua Elbers va cong sfl (2002, 2003), sai sd dfldc eho la cd tfldng q u a n vdi n h a u edc xa Md hinh (1) sfl dung dfl Hdu tfl dieu t r a mflc sdng ddn cfl 2010 (VHLSS 2010) Trong budc tiep theo, cac thdng sdfldc tinh cua md hinh (1) dUde sfl dung vdi dfl Heu tfl tdng dieu t r a ndng, lam, thuy san imm 2011 (2011 RAFC) de tinh toan chi tidu cua ta:t ca cac hd gia £ n h xa: y ^ = exp(x^^+V^f+ }• (2) Mflc chi tieu binh qudn d i u ngudi dUdc tfnh toan sau dd se dfldc sfl dung de tinh toan cac ehi sd bat binh dang va ddi ngheo cua cac xa Cae gia tri sai so c h u ^ cua cac chi sdha't Census: Tdng diSu tra ndng, ldm va thfiy san (2011 RAFQ nam 2011 19 Doi ngheo, bat binh fling Mnh dang diiOc u6c t i n h bang m6 phong Monte-Carlo Cu th^ hdn, Aia ti6n chiing toi udc tinh phan phoi cuayO, ^ , v4 sau moi lan mo phong, cac gi& tri cua cac thong so n4y dUOc riit n g l u nhien tiJ sij phan phdi Udc tinh cua chiing va dUOC sil dung ii udc tinh cua cac chi so' ve chi tieu, doi ngMo, bat binh dang Sau mdt s o l a n thuc h i t o tinh toan mo phong, chiing ta co t h i nhan dUOc sU phan bd' mSu va tinh toan lech chuan cua cac chi sSnoi tren Nghien ciiu sii dung he s6' Gini, la chl so' dUdc sii dung pho' bie'n nhat d l ludng bft't binh dang ve mile song (Bellii va laberati, 2006) Ke thiia m6 hinh phSn tich thUc nghiSm cua cac nghito cUu trudc day tfl Ravallion va Chen (1997), Earn (2007) va Ahmed Raza Cheema va Maqbool H Sial (2012), tac gia sil dung md hinh phan tich hdi quy tuyd'n tinh sau day de phan tich tac dgng cua chi tieu va bat binh dang tdi ty le nghdo va sau hay khoang each ngheo (poverty gap) cua cac xa Viet Nam: Pi=a + b,Lnex, + bfi, + Ci (3) G, =a + biLnex, + bzGi + u, (4) Trong dd P,- va G,- la ty le ngheo va sau cua ngh^o ci'p xa, Lnex, la logarit cua mile chi teu binh qudn dSu ngudi dv xa va G, la mdc biit binh dang ( he sd' Gini) cSp xa v i e,- va Ui\k sai sd mo hinh K e t q u a t i n h t o a n v a t h a o lufin Nghien cdu s^ dung c h u ^ nghdo chi tieu dUdc Tong cue Thdng ke va Ngan hang The gioi sh dung n a m 2010 (WB, 2012) de tinh toan ty Id ngheo v^ sdu cua ngheo clip xa d Viet N a m Do vdy, ho nghdo 14 ho mile chi tieu binh qudn d i u ngudi hdng thang thiip hdn 653 n g a n dong Ket qua tinh toan cua tac gia tfl dfl lidu n a m 2011 RAFC cho thay, tinh t r u n g binh, ty Id nghdo cap xa b Vidt Nam Id 33%, cao hdn so vdi ty le nghdo tinh cho toan bo k h u vflc ndng thdn tfl dii h e u khao sat mflc song d a n cfl nam 2010 (27%) (WB, 2012) Sfl thieu h u t chi tieu dfldc b^ng khoang each ngheo hay dd sau cua ngheo la 10% Hd sd Gini t r u n g binh clip xa bang cd gid tri t h ^ p hdn so vdi hd sd Gini tinh cho toan bo k h u vflc ndng thdn (0,33) t i n h tfl dfl h e u dieu t r a mflc song dan cfl nam 2010 (MPI, 2015) Dieu dd cd t h i bat ngudn tfl si^ khac n h a u ve bao phu ciia hai bo dii Ueu D a Ueu tinh toan tfl nam 2011 RAFC bao gdm toan bo cac hp gia dinh ndng thdn, dd dfl Ueu tfl VHLSS nam 2010 ch! bao gdm khoang 6.700 hd gia dinh ndng thdn BANG 1: Cac c h i so' p h a n a n h m i l e sd'ng d a n cfl ca'p x a dr V i e t N a m n a m 2011 Cac chi so Chi deu binh q u ^ dau ngutri (nghin dong) Ty le ngh^o (poverty rate) Dd sSu ngh^o (poverty gap) Bit binh ding (Gini) GM In trung binh 11.924 33% 10% 25% Trung vi 11.910 23% 5% 24% Cue tilu 2.400 0.00% 0.00% 14% Cue dai 75.000 99% 70% 4S% D6 lech chu^n 4.748 26% 12% 0.04 S6 quan s^t (xa) 9080 9080 9080 9080 NguSn: Tinh toan cua t£c gia s& dung dC lieu t&nam 2011 RAFC va sft dung phuong phap da durt; trinh bay b muc 2.2 Kdt qua phan tich hdi quy vd tac ddng ciia chi tidu va bft binh d i n g tdi ty le nghdo cap xa dfldc trinh bay bang Tac gia udc Ifldng md hinh rieng biet: mo hinh ehung cho toan bd cac xa; md hinh udc Ifldng cho cac 20 xa cd mflc bd't binh d i n g thffp hdn mflc trung binh (Gini0,24) Nhfl dfldc ky vong, ket qua fldc Ifldng cho tha'y mflc chi t4ghm cAl Klnh lgs£2 (465) - Thing 2/2017 Doi ngheo, bat binh dang tdi giam ngheo cung dUde tim th^y d ca c^c tieu binh qudn d^u ngUdi cao hdn cd tac xa cd miic dd ba't binh cao va thap Tuy dgng tich Clic tdi giam ty Id nghdo va ngUdc nhien, ket qua lidc lUdng d md hinh va lai, bat bmh dang cao lai ed tac dong gia khac ve dd ldn cua he sd' chi tidu va tang ty le ngheo d cac xa cua Viet Nam Ke't qua chi rang, vdi mflc ba't binh dang b^t binh dang Cu th^, chi tieu cd tac ddng khdng thay d^i thi tinh trung binh, cd 10% giam nghdo manh hdn d cac xa cd mtic dd tang them chi tidu binh quan diu bgft binh dang thifp, ba't binh ngudi cua xa se giup cho ty 1% nghdo eua xa ding lai cd tac ddng cao hdn d cae xa cd mtic giam di 6,5 % Tac ddng tieh eUc eua chi tidu dd b^t binh dang cao hdn BANG 2: Tac dong cua chi tigu va bat binh dang tdri ty le ngheo dr cap xa Mo hinh Mo hinh M6hinh3 (tat ca) B