KIEM SOAT THAM NHIING VA THU HUT DAU TU" TRUC T I P NUdC NGOAI TAI ASEAN: MOT TIEP CAN THUC NGHIEM Nguyen Qu6c Tram 5a Ngoai vu tinh Khdnh Hoa Email: tramnguyenquoc2015@gmail.com Hoang Hong HJep Vien Khoa hoc xd hgi vitng Trung Bo (ISSCR) - Viin Han lam Khoa hgc xd hgi Viet Nam Email: Hoanghongkiep@gmail.com Ngay nhan: 19/4/2017 Ngay nhan ban sua: 17/7/2017 Ngay duyet dang: 25/10/2017 Torn tSt: Sii- dung cdc mo hinh kinh ti lugng nghien ciru ndy kiem tra vai trd cua viec kiim sodt tham nhiing thu hut dong von ddu tu true tiip nuac ngodi tai cdc quoc gia ASEAN giai doan 19982013 Kit qud uac luang chi rdng sau kiem sodt cdc nhdn to ve quy mo thi truang, su on dinh kinh ti vT mo chdt lugng ca sa hg tdng vd ty le lai sudt thtfc chung toi da tim thdy bang chimg y nghia rdng, quoc gia Idem sodt tot tham nhiing co thi gop phdn thu hiit manh me dong von ddu tu true tiep nuoc ngodi Nhiing kit qud thuc nghiem ndy cho phep chung toi gai md" mot so khuyin nghi chinh sdch nhdm giiip Viit Nam ddy manh thu hiit FDI boi canh hgi nhdp kinh ti khu -vuc Tir khoa : FDI, ASEAN, Cac nhan td, dir lieu bang, nhan td, tham nhiing, thg chg Corruption control and foreign direct investment in ASEAN: An empirical approach Abstract: Using econometric models, this article examines the role ofcorruption control in attractingforeign direct investment (FDI) in ASEAN countries over the period 1998 to 2013 The empirical results indicate that after controlling for factors of market size, macroeconomic stability, infrastructure quality, and real interest rates, good control of corruption can help the host country attract more foreign direct investment The empirical results allow us to suggest some policy recommendations for Vietnam government aiming at attracting FDI in the context of regional economic integration Keywords: Foreign direct investment; ASEAN; panel; determinants: corruption; institutions Dat v^n de Hgi nhap kinh td giua cdc qudc gia npi khdi ASEAN thdng qua Higp dinh diu tu viing (AIA), Khu vuc mau dich ty (AFTA), ma dinh cao la lap Cdng ddng kinh tg ASEAN vao nam 2015, da din hinh mdt thi trudng lign qudc gia va mdt trung tam san xuit mang tinh xuyen vung Do vay, cdc nha diu tu qudc tg ludn xem ASEAN nhu la mdt diem din thdng nhdt (vdi gin 600 trigu dan) SS 245 thdng 11/2017 tuong quan so sdnh vdi cdc nen kinh te khdc tai Chdu A (nhu Trung Qudc, An Dp, Nhat Ban, Han Qudc, ) lua chpn dia didm dau tu La mdt vign ciia khdi ASEAN, Viet Nam se phai canh tranh mpt each true dien vdi cac qudc gia vign thu hiit diu tu true tidp nude ngoai (FDI) Be chinh sdch thu hut FDI ciia Vigt Nam dat dugc thdnh cdng bdi canh canh tranh do, cdn thigt phai nhan dien nhirng nhan td ca ban anh hudng 31 ki|||| [eJ^hiii tileD dau tu quan tdm dac biet din nang suit lao ddng Nhin chung, nhiing cdng trinh nghien cuu fhyc nghiem tren da lugng hda dupe mdt sd nhan td quan trpng CO anh hudng din su dinh vi cua ddng vdn FDI tai khu vuc ASEAN Tuy nhien, cac nghign cihi cdn tdn tai mdt sd ban chg nhat dinh vi phuang phdp nghign ciiu va each tiep can Nghign cuu ciia Ismail (2009) sir dung md hinh Gravity dua tren gid dinh v6 tinh dgc lap thuong m^i giua cdc qudc gia chu nha, song gid dinh ndy Id khd yeu md ASEAN Thuc tg, cd rat it cdng trinh thuc nghiem nghien da bmh thdnh khu vtrc mau dich ty vdi su luan ciiu vai trd cua the chg qudc gia ddi vdi thu hut FDI chuyen hang hda giiia cdc qudc gia ndi khdi diln vao khu vyc ASEAN Ismail (2009) da su dyng mdt mpt each manh me Han niia dii hgu nghign cihi md hinh luc hap dan (Gravity Model) dg nhan dien thudc giai doan 1995-2003 la khd each xa so vdi thdi nhiing nhan td cua ddng vdn FDI tu 18 qudc gia xuat digm hien tai, vay tinh cdp nhat ciia dii ligu khdng khau vdn chay vao qudc gia vien ASEAN cao Nghign ciiu ciia Masron & Abdullah (2010) chi giai doan 1995-2003 Kgt qua udc lugng cho sii dyng cac phuang phap udc lupng truyen thing thay, quy md thi trudng ciia qudc gia chii nhd va qudc cho dii ligu bdng (Md hinh cdc tdc ddng cd dinh gia xuat khau vdn, chdt lupng co sd tang, chinh FEM, va md hinh cac tac ddng ngdu nhign - REM) sach thuong mai, lam phat thap, ngan sach can bang de udc lupng cdc nhan td dnh hudng nen tinh viing la nhiing ygu td anh hudng y nghia din thu hut FDI manh cua cac kgt qua udc lupng khdng cao, cac Lign quan ddn nhdn td the chg, tac gia da tim thiy phucmg phdp ndy khdng dii tin cay trudng hgp vai trd y nghia cua tinh minh bach qudc gia sd dan vi cheo dCr lieu bdng (sd qudc gia chu thu hiit ddng vdn FDI tai khu vyc ASEAN Masron nhd) khd it Tuong tu, Hodng Hdng Hiep (2011) chi & Abdullah (2010) da nghign cuu anh hudng ciia nghign ciru cho sdu qudc gia ASEAN (6 dan vi ch6o) chit luang thi chi ddi vdi ddng FDI vao ASEAN bd dir lieu thdi gian qua dai (1991-2009) giai doan 1996-2008 Cdc tdc gia da sir dung ngn cdc ket qua udc lupng cd the bi thien Idch Dac chi sd mdi trudng the chi tdng hpp dupe ludng biet, cdc nghign cuu trdn chi dg cap din chit lupng tix phan edu (World Bank's Worldwide thg che, chua dd cap chuygn sdu din kigm dinh vai Governance Indicators) Cdc kit qua thuc nghigm tir trd cua kiem soat tham nhiing thu hiit FDI giiia phuang phap udc lupng dir lieu bang truygn thdng cdc qudc gia ASEAN cho thay, viec cai thign chit lupng thi chi da ddng Su dyng nhigu phuang phdp udc lupng khac vai trd rit quan trgng thu hiit FDI vao khu vyc cho dii lieu bang, nghien cuu lupng hoa Bgn canh do, cac tdc gia cung da tim thiy tdc nhirng nhdn td dnh hudng ddn sy dinh vi cua ddng ddng tich eye cua quy md thi trudng, vdn ngudi, vdn FDI tai khu vuc ASEAN giai doan 1998-2013, vd dg md kinh ti ddi vdi thu hiit cdc ddng vdn FDI dd tap trung kiem dinh vai trd cua viec kiem vao ASEAN Su dung cac phuang phdp binh phucmg soat tham nhung ddi vdi thu hut FDI Nhimg kit qua be nhit md rdng khd thi (Feasible Generalised Least thuc nghiem ciia nghign cuu ndy se Id ca sd khoa Square-FGLS), Sii dung phucmg phdp udc luong hpc quan trpng di gpi md mpt sd ham y chinh sdch FGLS (Feasible Generalised Least Square), Hoang ddi vdi Viet Nam bdi canh canh tranh thu hut Hdng Hiep (2011) nhan dien cac nhan td cua ddng FDI giira cac qudc gia khu virc dang dien FDI vao quic gia ASEAN giai doan 1991mpt each gay gat td sau cudc khiing hodng tdi chinh 2009 Cdc kit qua udc tupng chi ring, quy md thi chau A nam 1997 Phdn cdn lai cua nghign cim dupe trudng, dp md ngoai thuang, ca sd ting, vdn td chiic nhu sau: Phdn trinh bay tiip cdn ly thuyet ngudi, nang suit lao ddng, ty gid hdi dodi, lai suit vi dnh hudng ciia tham nhung ddi vdi thu hut FDI, fliyc, rui ro chinh hi, va chit luong thi che tai qudc phan gidi thieu md hinh kinh td lugng va sir md td gia chd nhd Id nhung nhan td tdc ddng y nghTa din bien, phan trinh bay phuang phap vd kdt qud udc thu hiit FDI Ngodi ra, lao ddng gid re khdng giup lugng, vd phdn trinh bay ket luan chung va di xuit qudc gia chii nha thu hiit FDI, ma thuc ti cdc nha mdt sd ham y chinh sdch cho Viet Nam din quygt djnh lua chpn dm didm diu tu ciia ddng FDI vao ASEAN kd tii sau cudc khiing hodng tai chinh chau A, nhit la cin thiit thyc hien kiim dinh sy anh hudng cda viec kiim soat tdt tham nhiing canh tranh thu hut FDI giua cdc qudc gia ndi viing Diiu hit siic quan trpng va can thigt bdi canh Thu tudng Chinh phu Nguygn Xuan Phiic dang quyit liet nd lye xay dung "Chinh phu kiin tao phdt triin Hem chinh, hdnh dgng quyet Hit, phifc v(/ Nhdn ddn " So 245 thdng 11/2017 32 kjnhlej'liatlrien Tham nhung va dau tu* true tiep nude ngoai: mpt tiep can ly thuyet Tir nhiing nam 1990, su gia tang ddng vdn FDI vao cdc qudc gia dang phdt triin da thuc diy mdt loat cac cdng trinh nghien ciiu tap trung vao nhan dien cac yiu td dnh hudng din ddng vdn FDI Gdn day, muc dp tham nhiing d qudc gia tigp nhdn (hay cdn gpi Id qudc gia chu nhd - Host Country) ciing ddn duac xem xet nhu la mdt nhan td quan trpng canh tranh thu hut FDI Theo Td chiic Minh bach qudc tg, tham nhiing la viec lam dyng quygn luc dupe iiy thac dd phyc vy lpi ich ca nhdn (xem them Nguygn Qudc Viet & Chu Thi Nhudng, 2012) Ve ca ban, tham nhung gan vdi FDI cd thi dupe xem la cac khodn tign hdi Id ma nhd ddu tu nude ngoai phdi chi trd true tiep hoac gidn tigp cho cac can bp cdng quyen ciia qudc gia tiep nhan de nhdn dupe su