TAC DONG CUA CAC CHlTONG TRINH TRO CAP DEN PHUC LOI HO GIA DINH d VIET NAM Nguyen Ho^ng Oanh Khoa Kinh te hoc, Truang Dgi hoc Kinh te Quoc ddn Email: oanh.nghg@gmail.com Nguyln Hong Ng^c Trudng Dai hgc Kinh ti Quoc ddn Email: ngocnguyenhong94@gmail.com H5 Dinh Bao Khoa Kinh te hoc, Truang Dai hgc Kinh ti Quoc ddn Email: hodinhbao@yahoo.com Ngay nhan 29/3/2017 Ngdy nhdn ban sua 28/5/2017 Ngay duyet dang 25/10/2017 Tom tat Bdi viit ndy su dung phuang phdp kit noi diim xu huang (PSM) de xdc dinh cdc nhdn to quyet dinh khd ndng tham gia hai nhom chinh sdch ho trgr tu lieu san xuat (HTTLSX) vd ho trg thu nhap (HTTN) vd phuang phdp khdc biet kep (DID) de ddnh gid tdc dong cua cdc chinh sdch ndy den phuc Igi ho gia dinh a Viit Nam Kit qud nghien cuu thuc nghiem cho thdy cdc chinh sdch ho tra chua cdi thien phuc lai cua cdc ho tham gia chinh sdch giai doan nghiin cuu mot cdch ro rdng, nhung xu hudng tdc dgng Id tich c^c theo thai gian Ddng chu y Id, mac du cdc chinh sdch ndy khong Idm tdng tong thu nhap hay tong chi tiiu cua cdc hg tham gia chinh sdch, nhung lam tdng ddng ke thdnh phdn thu nhap tie hocit dgng san xuat nong nghiip, doic biet doi vai nhom duac ho tra vi tu lieu sdn xudt, dong thai Idm tdng chi tiiu cho hdng hoa Idu ben vd dich vuy te so vai cdc ho khong duac nhan ho tra TUT khoa: Phuang phdp khac biet kep (DID), Phiic Ipi ho gia dinh, Hd trp thu nhap, Hd trp tu lieu san xuat, Phuang phap ket ndi digm xu hudng (PSM) Impact of subsidy schemes on households' economic well-being in Vietnam AbstractThis paper uses the Propensity Score Matching method (PSM) to determine the criteria of eligibility for production and income subsidies and the Difference-in-Difference method (DID) to evaluate the impact of these policies on households' economic well-being in Vietnam The empirical results indicate that though these policies have not contributed to a clear economic well-being improvement of the participating households, their impacts tend to move in a positive direction It should be noted that though these policies not make the income/expenditure of the participating households to increase, they help increase the income component from agricultural production significantly, especially for the group receiving production subsidies, and at the same time increase spending on durable goods and health care services in comparison with the nonparticipating one Keywords: Difference-in-difference (DID); households' economic well-being: income subsidy; production subsidy; Propensity Score Matching (PSM) s6 245 thdng 11/2017 22 KinhKyiia! Irieo Gidi thilu Trong mSy thap ky vita qua, Viet Nam da dat duac nhiing cdng to Idn vg kinh tg, xa hdi va xda ddi giam ngheo vdi ty le hd ngheo giam manh tir 58,1% nam 1993 xudng chi cdn 7,2% nam 2015 Tuy nhien, thuc te cho thay, sd hd cd thu nhap sat chuan ngheo cdn rat Idn, ty le hp tai ngheo cao va chgnh Igch giau-ngheo giira cac viing va giiia cac nhdm dan cu chua dupe cai thien Thuc te da dat cho cac nha hoach dinh chinh sach (CS) mpt cau hdi la ngn hd tra ngudi ngheo nhu thg nao - HTTN hay HTTLSX - de dat dupe myc tigu giam ngheo ben virng Cac nha kinh tg cung da cd gang dua cau tra Idri cho cau hdi nay, nhumg tiec rang hp van chua tim dupe tigng ndi chung Chang ban Chow (2006), Mendola (2006), va Oi & Haas (2008) cho ring HTTLSX cho ngudi ngheo se giup hg cai thien cudc sdng va thoat ngheo bdn viing han so vdi chi HTTN Khi tigp can va lam chii dupe tu lieu san xuat, ngudi ngheo se chu dpng tim dugc each thoat ngheo Trong dd, Phan Thi Nir (2010), Kumari (2013), va Tran Thi Thanh Tu & cdng sir (2015) lai chi rang hiSu qua tren thuc tg cua cac each thiic ho trp khdng phai liic ndo ciing ro rang Nghign cmi dupe thuc hien nham danh gia hieu qua cua cac CS giam ngheo thdng qua hai nhdm chuong trinh trp cap cho ngudi ngheo - HTTN va HTTLSX, tii didu chinh CS trg cip cho diing ddi tuang va dat hieu qua Su dung sd ligu dupe trich xuat tir bp sd lieu dieu tra mire sdng hp gia dinh (VHLSS), nghign cuu thuc hien danh gia higu qua cua cac CS cho hai giai doan 2010-2012 va 20102014 dg cd the thay duac tac ddng ngan ban va trung han cua cac nhdm CS ho trg Kgt qua ciia cac CS ho trp dupe danh gia bang each so sanh su thay ddi cac chi tieu phiic Ipi (thu nhap/chi tigu) cua cac hd gia dinh (HGD) cua nhdm tham gia vdi nhdm khdng tham gia CS Bai vigt dupe ket cau ndi dung chinh, dd muc tdng quan cac nghign cuu lign quan, muc xac djnh md hinh ly thuyit, muc trinh bay kgt qua nghign cuu thuc nghiem, va muc dua ket luan va mdt sd gpi y ve hudng dieu chinh CS Tdng quan nghien cihi Danh gia chung ve tac ddng ciia he thdng cac CS giam ngheo ciia chinh phii, Elkins va cdng su (2015) da thiic hien mpt nghien cim so sanh sir dung phuang phap PSM vdi nhdm nghien ciru gdm 51 qudc gia dang phat trign va 62 qudc gia thudc Sd 245 thdng 11/2017 nhdm ddi chiing giai doan 1999-2008 Kgt qua nghign cim cho thay vigc chinh phii xay dung mot he thdng CS giam ngheo phu hop la vd cung quan trpng va cd anh hudng quyet dinh ddi vdi ket qua giam ngheo Lira chpn dugc mdt CS giam ngheo thich hpp he thdng cac CS giam ngheo vdn di rat da dang lit mdt viec khd ddi vdi bat ky chmh phii nao Chow (2006) cho rang giai phap hieu qua nhat de ddi phd vdi tinh trang ngheo ddi d cac viing ndng thdn Trung Qudc la hd trp dat san xuat ndng nghigp Trong mpt nghign cmi khac vg Trung Qudc, Oi & Haas (2008) cho rang cac CS hd trp giao due dudi hinh thiic mign giam hgc phi la giai phap giam ngheo hieu qua Sir dung phucfng phap PSM nghien cim cua minh, Mendola (2006) khang dinh tac ddng tich cue cua viec ung dung cdng nghe vao khu vuc ndng nghiep ddi vdi viec giam ngheo d khu vuc ndng thdn Bangladesh Tuy nhien, vdi nhiing hd ndng dan khdng cd dat canh tac thi giai phap chi cd tac dung giiip hp giam ngheo chii khd thoat ngheo Nyangena & Maurice (2014) nghien ciiu tac ddng ciia viec ap dung ddng bd phan bdn hihi ca va cac gidng ngd dupe cai tien len san lugng d cac ndng hd nhd d Kenya Nhdm nghign cuu sii dung phuong phap ban thuc nghiem DID ket hpp vdi phuang phap PSM dg kigm soat dac tinh bat bien vg thdi gian va dac tinh khdng ddng nhat cua cac hp gia dinh khdng the quan sat dupe Hp cho rang phan bdn hihi ca va cac gidng ngd dupe cai tien lam tang san lupng len dang kg chi ap dung ddng bd ca hai thii Venetoklis (2004) danh gia tac ddng cua cac chuang trinh trp cap luong true tiep tdi cac doanh nghiep vira va nhd d Phan Lan sd dung phuong phap PSM va DID Ket qua nghign ciiu cho thay trg cap luang cd tac ddng tich cue nhung khdng ben viing ca ngan han Kumari (2013) lai cho rang tinh chat cua nhdm ngheo la rat phiic tap va khdng chi don thuan nhin d khia canh kinh tg CS giam ngheo se hieu qua neu chinh phii nhin nhan tir gdc vT md va tap trung vao cac chuang trinh hd trp y te, giao due va cac dieu kien sinh boat hang nhu cho d, nude sach, cho ngudi dan CJ Viet Nam, cac nghien cim ve CS giam ngheo nhin chung deu dua nhiing minh chung tich cue cho muc tieu giam ngheo, nhung lai cd nhirng kgt luan kha khac vg vigc lua chpn va sap xep uu tien ddi vdi cac nhdm giai phap CS hd trp Nguyen Nggc Son (2012) cho rang ba CS giam ngheo va nang cao chat lupng cudc sdng hieu qua nhat cho kjnlityiiittti'ien ngudi cd thu nhap thap d Viet Nam la mign giam chi phi kham chira benh, mien giam hpc phi va cung cap tin dung uu dai cho ngudi ngheo Vuong Qudc Duy (2012) xem xet tac dpng cua hd trg tin dyng Ign miic sdng cua cac HGD sii dung phucmg phap PSM Kgt qua nghien cim cho thky CS khign cac HGD cd thu nhap thap chi tigu nhigu hon cho y tg va giao due, dd se dem lai Ipi ich dai han Tuy nhign, Phan Thi Nir (2010) danh gia tac ddng ciia CS hd trg tin dung cho ngudi ngheo d khu vuc ndng thdn Vigt Nam bang phuang phap khac biet kep (DID) lai nhan djnh rSng, tin dung lam tang chi tiiu nhung khdng lam gia tang thu nhap cua hd ngheo Cach tdt nhat de thoat ngheo ben vimg la dau tu cho cac boat dpng giao due Tran Thi Thanh Tu & cdng sir (2015) cung cho riing ngin han, tidp can tin dung chinh thiic khdng cd tac ddng cai thien raiic sdng ngoai trir chi cho giao due Cac khoan cho vay im dai la khdng dii de xda ddi giam ngheo va chi hieu qua cac HGD ngheo dugc ho trp tdt hon ve each thuc sir dung vdn Hd Dinh Bao (2016) da xem xet tac ddng cua cdc CSHTTN va HTTLSX tdi phuc Ipi ciia cac hd ngheo su dung phuang phap PSM va DID vdi bp sd hgu VHLSS 2012 va 2014 Nghign ciiu dua ket luan rang nhdm nhan HTTN cd miic tang vg thu nhap va chi tigu dgu cao hon, nhdm HTTLSX khdng cho thay su thay ddi thu nhap VSn dg dat d day la, lieu cac CS hd trp, dac biet la CSHTTLSX, cd the cd tac ddng bgn viing tdi phiic Ipi cua ngudi ngheo hay khdng ngu chi xem xet khoang thdi gian ngan nhu vay? Ndi tdm lai, tac ddng cua tung loai CS hd trp cho ngudi ngheo dupe danh gia rat khac Thuc tg ddi hdi phai cd nhiing nghien cim vdi sd lieu dii dai va phucmg phap phii hpp dg cd thg dua nhiing nhan duih chinh xac ban ve tac ddng cua cac CS hd trp dgn phiic Ipi ciia cac HGD "tinh trang phuc Ipi cua nhdm ddi chung" "Nhdm ddi chung" can dupe xac dinh cang chinh xac cang tdt va can thda man hai tigu chi: (/) khdng tham gia CS va khdng bi tac dpng tir xa bdi CS; vi (ii) cang gidng nhdm tham gia CS cang tdt Nghign ciiu su dung phuang phap PSM dg xac dinh cac nhan td quyet dinh kha nang tham gia cac chuang trinh hd trg ket hap vdi phuang phap DID dg danh gia tac dpng cua cac chuang trinh ndy dgn phiic Ipi HGD 3.1 Xdc dinh cdc nhdn to quyet dinh xdc sudt nhan hS trpr tdng phteong phdp tiep can diem xu hu&ng (PSM) Ban chat cua phuong phap PSM la xay dung "nhdm ddi chimg" bang cac phuang phap thdng ke Dua vao cac dac tinh quan sat dupe cua nhdm tham gia CS va nhdm khdng tham gia CS (nhdm doi chiing), chiing tdi xay dung mpt chi sd, cdn dupe gpi la digm xu hudng (propensity score) Phuang phap dua hai gia dinh Thii nhat, gid dinh doc lap co diiu kiin ham y sau da kigm soat cac ygu td quan sat dugc, syc khac biet ve tac ddng CS Ign nhdm tham gia hay nhdm ddi chiing khdng phu thudc vao viec phan bd CS Thii hai, gid dinh CO vimg ho trg chung (hay digu kien tning l|p) la viing cd udc lupng di^m xu hudng ciia ca nhdm tham gia va nhdm ddi chiing, dam bao tim duac cac quan sat nhdm ddi chiing cd cac dac tinh giong vdi cac quan sat tuong ling nhdm tham gia Quan sat khdng nam vung hd trp chung se bi loai Dg xac dinh xac suat (digm xu hudng) cua mdi ddi tuong, chung tdi xay dimg md hinh hdi quy vdi bien phu thudc nhi phSn va cac bien giai thich la cac dac trung cd thg quan sat dupe ciia ddi tugng Ket qua hdi quy la co sd dg xac dinh viing hd trp chung va phan chia cac quan sat vao cac khdi, dam bao cac dac trung la khdng qua khac biet giiia hai nhdm timg khoi Mo hinh ly thuyet Muc tieu cua danh gia tac ddng CS la xem xet sir thay ddi trang thai phuc Igi cua nhdm ddi tupng hudng Igi trudc va sau tham gia CS Nhin chung, cac danh gia thudng dupe thuc hien trgn cimg mgt nhdm ddi tupng Tuy nhign, trgn thuc te, ca khdng cd CS thi trang thai phiic Igi cua nhdm ddi tupng van cd the thay ddi theo hudng ciia muc tigu CS, hay su thay ddi cd the xay khdng phai tac dpng tir CS Vi thg, danh gia tac ddng cua CS can tuan theo mgt nguyen t4c ca ban la so sanh "tinh trang phuc lai cua nhdm nghien cim" vdi So 245 thdng 11/2017 3.2 Bdnh gid tdc dgng CS b&ng phuang ph^ khdc biet kep (DID) Phuang phap danh gia tac dpng cua CS thdng qua viec so sanh sy thay ddi trang thai phuc Ipi trudc va sau CS giiia nhdm tham gia CS va nhdm ddi chimg, Miic dp chenh lech cua su thay ddi trang thai phuc lea dugc tinh bang: D=E[(Y-yV|T=l]-E[Y-Y«)|T=0] 24 kiflhleJIiallrien Trong dd, T\k bign gia nhSn gia tri neu ddi tupng tham gia CS va b5ng ngu khdng tham gia CS, Y la chi tieu ket qua (hay phiic Ipi) ciia ddi tugng thii i E[(Y - Y"^)|T=1] ludng miic dp tac ddng trung binh cua CS ddi vdi nhiing hp tham gia so sanh vdi trudc tham gia CS D§y chinh la khac biet thii nhat Tuong tu, E[Y-Y"_)|T=0] ludng mire dp thay ddi trung binh vg thu nhap cua cac hd khdng tham gia CS khoang thdi gian tir thdi digm ap dung CS tdi thdi diem nghien ciiu Chgnh Igch vg mire dp thay ddi thu nhap giiia hai nhdm dupe gpi la khac biet kep Ket qua thirc nghiem Nghign cuu danh gia tac ddng ciia cac CSHTTLSX va HTTN dupe thuc hien nam 2010 tdi phuc Icri cua HGD cac nam 2012 va 2014, tiic la hai va bdn nam sau nhan dupe CS Cac tinh toan va phan tich dupe tien hanh dua tren bd sd lieu VHLSS cac nam 2010, 2012 va 2014 3.3 Quy trinh u&c lup^g Nghien cuu sit dung ddng thdi hai phuang phap PSM va DID nham muc dich xac dinh nhdm ddi chiing dua trgn digm xu hudng dg khSc phuc nhupc diem khdng kigm soat dupe dac trung cua hai nhdm tham gia vk khdng tham gia CS trudc tinh chi sd DID Trudc hdt, chiing tdi su: dyng md hinh Probit hoac Logit dd tinh digm xu hudng: Pscore = P(C=l)=a^+I.cLjXj^ +«, (I) Trong do, C la bien nhi phSn, C = ngu cd tham gia CS; X^ la dac trung ciia HGD Sau dd, chung tdi xay dung viing ho trg chung va loai bd cac quan sat khdng nam vung Ddng thdi, chiing tdi phan chia cac quan sat dua trgn diem xu hudng vao cac khdi, nham dam bao gia tri trung binh cua mdi bidn sd kigm soat cac dac trung ciia nhdm tham gia la can bang vdi nhdm so sanh timg khdi Cudi Cling, chiing tdi su dyng ket qua hdi quy md hinh sau de danh gia tac dgng bang phucmg phap DID: r = Po+ P,- T; + Pj- year^ p^ (Tx Year)£_ (2) Trong dd Year la bign thai gian trudc va sau tham gia CS He sd ciia bign tuang tac Tva Year la gia tri DID, hay chinh la tac dpng ciia CS Bang md ta each tinh gia tri DID 4.1 Mo id so lieu Bang bieu dien sy phan chia 11 CS hd trp cy the nam 2010 vao hai nhdm CS chinh, vdi ti le phan tram sd hd tham gia tuong ling vdi moi CS Cd the thay, CS Mien gidm chi phi kham, chua benh cho nguai ngheo cd ti le hd tham gia Idn nhat (13,30%), tiep sauddlaCS Tin dung im ddi doi vdi nguai ngheo va CS Ho tra mua the bdo hiem y te vdi ti le lan lucrt la 11,98% va 11,02% Trong dd, CS cd sd hp dupe hd trp thap nhat la Cap ddt sdn xudt cho hg ngheo ddn toe thieu so, chiem 0,07% tdng sd hd Tdng cdng, nam 2010, cd tat ca 2017 hd dupe nhan HTTLSX va 1628 hp dupe nhan HTTN tren tdng sd 9402 hd dupe dieu tra Sd lieu tinh toan dupe Bang cho thay cac hp dupe irhan HTTLSX cd tdng dien tich dat canh tac, tl le ngudi phu thudc va dp tudi trung binh cua chu hg thap hem, thu nhap binh quan va trinh dp giao due ciia chii hd cac hd d muc kha thap nhung van cao hon dang ke so vdi cac hd dupe nhan HTTN Ti le chu hd la nam gidi va ti le ngudi di lam an xa (chu hp hoac vidn hd) cua cac hd dugc HTTLSX ciing cao ban so vdi cac hd thudc nhdm cdn lai Tuy nhien, hai nhdm cd ti le hd d ndng thdn va hd dan tdc thidu sd kha tuong ddng nhau, chi cao hon ddi chiit vdi nhdm nhan HTTN Cac dac digm cho thay dinh hudng hpp ly ciia cac CS ho trp dupe thuc hien nam 2010 4.2 Ket qua thifc nghiem Dg danh gia tac ddng cua cac CS tdi cac HGD dugc hd trp cac nam 2012 va 2014, chiing tdi tien hanh ghep ndi bd sd lieu nam 2010 lan lupt vdi Bang 1: Phirong phap DID Year = Year = r-o r-i A? Sd 245 thdng 11/2017 i' = ft ? =ft+ ft ft ? = /'o + ft f = /!„ + ft+ft+ft ft + ft Khdc biet kep DID = Ps 25 klnht&l'hatlrJH Bang 2: Ti II tham gia cAc CS hS try nam 2010 (%) Ti le tham gia (%) Day nghg cho ngudi ngheo, ngudi thu nhap thap Cap~dat^an xuat cho hp ngheo dan tdcjhieu so _ _ _ Khuyen ndng, khuyen lam, khuygn ngu _ _ _ _ _ Nhdm CS Ho trg xang dau cho tau/tfmygn d ^ h c a _ _ HTTLSX Tin dyng uu dai ddi vdi ngudi ngheo Hd trg may mdc, vat tu san xuat (phan bdn, gidng, cay gidng, ) Ho trp mua the bao hidm y tg _ _ _ Miln giam chi phi kham/chiia bgnh cho ngudi_ngheo _ Nhdm Mien^iam hpc phi cho ngum ngheo CSHTTN Giup dd nha d, dat d cho hp ngheo Trg cap luang thuc Nguon: Tong hgp tie so lieu ciia VHLSS 2010 0,07 8,04 0,11 8,71 Bang 3: Dac diem cua cac HGD duwc nhan ho tra CS nam 2010 Tiiu chi Quy md hd trung binh (ngudi) Thu nhap trung binh/ngudi/thang (nghin ddng) Tdng dien tich dat canh tac trung binh (ra^) Dp tudi trung binh ciia chii hp (tudi) Sd nam di hgc trung binh cua chii hd (nam) Ti le ngudi phu thudc trung binh (%) Ti le chii hp la nam gidi (%) Ti le chu hd da lap gia dinh (%.) Ti Ig chu hd di lam an xa (%) Ti Ig hd cd ngudi di lam an xa (%) Ti Ig hd d ndng thdn (%) Ti le hd dan tpc thigu sd (%) Ngudn • Tong hgp tu so lieu ciia VHLSS 2010 cac bp sd lieu ciia nam 2012 va 2014 va thu dugc hai bO sd lieu mang can bang tuong ung bao gdm 4234 quan sat cho phan tich hai nam 2010-2012 va 2041 quan sat ddi vdi giai doan 2010-2014 Trudc hgt, chiing tdi su dyng phuang phap PSM nham xac dinh nhdm ddi chirng vdi cac dac tinh tuong ddng vdi nhdm tham gia CS Kdt qua udc lupng md hinh Probit tinh toan xac suit tham gia cac chuang trinh ho trp vdi cac bign ddc ISp la dac tinh cua hd va chu hd dugc bigu diln Bang (Dieu kien can bang duac thda man tat ca cac phuang trinh hdi quy) Kdt qua thu dugc cho thay dau cua cac he sd udc luang cho cac bidn sd md hinh dgu kha phu hop vdi thuc td ciing nhu nhiing dac digm ciia hp da dupe trinh bay Bang trgn day va tuang ddng gin nhu hoan toan Sd 245 thang 11/2017 H§ nhan HTTLSX Ho nh^n HTTN 4,347 869,615 9445,781 45,162 6,319 32,60 84,18 98,31 1,64 10,31 89,14 41,99 4,171 645,141 9693,789 47,071 4,783 41,29 76,23 97,36 0,80 8,91 90,36 50,06 giiia hai bd sd lieu hai giai d o ^ Cy thg, bign tudi cua chii hg Ma nhu dgu cd tac ddng ngupc chigu tdi kha nang tham gia cac chuang trinh hd tra ciia HGD, nhien tac ddng ro rang ban vdi nhdm CSHTTLSX Digu la tiem nang va kha nang tham gia lao ddng se ngAy mdt giam di tudi tic tang len, vi vay, chu hd tudi cang cao thi cang it kha nang duac nhan HTTLSX Thu nhap binh qudn cao hon ciing lam giam xac suat nhan HTTLSX cua HGD, nhien vdi mire dd tac dpng kha nhd Trong dd, cac bien so nam di hgc hay bang cdp cao nhdt ciia chii hd cd mdi quan hg ngugc chigu ro ret vdi xac suat dugc nhan HTTN song I91 bign dpng Cling chieu vdi kha nang dupe nhan HTTLSX, cho thay dinh hudng CSHTTLSX tap trung vao nhdm co kJnlil^Fliatlm fi S J o j I d ill § iSi' =1 ig ^ ^ "*^ ^ ãirPli ; 'C >Đ ã? ,k ~ ã^ ^ -e -^ ~* "^ ,, ^ -iS S-S:i ô-5Đ | , | S ^ bo '5) ' -a ^ I 'J So 245 thing 11/2017 klnbliyhaKm Bang 5: T a c dgng cua vifc t h a m gia cac CS trcr giiip nam 2010 den p h u c Ipi H G D cac nam 2012 va 2014 2012 Thu nhap (nghin dong) Tong thu nhap ca nam TiSn luong, tien cong Thu nhap ttt hogt dong san xuiit ndng nghiep Thu nhap tir hoat dong san xuat phi nong nghiep 2014 HTTLSX HTTN HTTLSX HTTN -5914,693««« (2065,151) -6500,895*** (1785,944) -3560,718 (3182,112) -7716,713** (3142,263) 898,4123 (1297,648) 346,2062 (1135,293) 3313,32 (2209,442) -182,5199 (1745,259) 2294,858*»« (741,9126) 31,84937 (761,12) 1728,875** (830,4355) 263,3064 (756,9382) 3725,47»** (1154,058) 248,311 (1273,664) 2754,857** (1176,489) 421,4418 (1088,78) -1571,647« (858,3898) -422,73*** (161,5863) 60,25179 (105,5601) -1559,677** (708,649) -41,6578 (135,8687) -146,5999" (132,2284) -66,57256 (45,29706) 59,90632 (210,1624) ^273",43"65*^^" (81,41568) 0,655940 (57,761) 505,3697** (216,6465) -379,368*** (74,29173) -2051,708* (1158,395) 654,5942 (1185,989) Chi tieu (ngliin dong) Tong chi tieu Chi cho giao dye Chi cho y te va cham soc sue khoe Chi mua luong thue thuc phSm Chi mua dung lau ben Chi sinh hoat Dau tu cho san xuat Icinh doanh """"1!85,53M '^ (1208,574) -538.8295** (253,2859) ^"3f93888 (1115,119) -267,1212 (224,4205) 319,6057 (201,9964) 251,025 (182,6435) -71,02101 (76,31632) -112,5332 (89,71471) "" "9i"2;b991*^ (359,6011) 1144,598*** (377,8775) -211,2146 (144,2776) -534,7581**« (153,9764) -1993,063 (2183,668) -38,49895 (1939,079) Gid tn ngodc Id cdc sai so chuan uac lucmg bang phuang phdp bootstrap * **, *** tuang ung cho biity nghia thdng ki a cdc muc 10%, 5% 1% Ngudn- Tinh todn cua cdc tdc gid trinh cao han cd kha nang mang lai higu qua Idn hon Nhirng hp cd chii ho khong lap gia dinh hoac cd /(' le nguat phu thugc cao cd xac suat nhan dupe HTTN Idn ban dang ke so vdi cac hd cdn lai, tac dpng duong ciia bien quy mo hg va bien gia hg co nguai di lam an xa chi cd y nghia thdng kg ddi vdi kha nang nhan HTTLSX cua cac hd Ben canh dd, cdc ho a khu vuc nong thon va cac hp dan tdc thieu sd cd kha nang nhan dupe trp giup cao hon nhigu so vdi cac hg cdn lai d ca hai nhdm CS vdi he sd udc luong mang dau am, cd y nghia d mirc rat cao vk cd gia tri tuyet ddi Idn nhat sd tat ca cac bign sd md hinh Tir cac kgt qua ve xac suat tinh toan dupe, chiing tdi tien hanh xac dinh viing ho trg chung va loai bd cac quan sat khdng nam vimg Sau Sd 245 thdng 11/2017 phuang phap DID duac ap dung dg phan tich tac ddng cua cac CS hd trp dgn phuc Ipi ciia HGD vdi kgt qua dugc trinh bay Bang Cd the thay, viec tham gia cac nhdm CS hd trp nam 2010 chua cho thay tac dpng tich eye lam cai thien tong thu nhap cua c i c hg cac nam 2012, 2014 Cu thd, nam 2012, miic gia tang tdng thu nhap cua cac hd tham gia CSHTTN va HTTLSX thap hon lan lupt khoang 6,5 trieu va 5,9 trieu ddng so vdi miic gia tang tuong img cua cac hd khdng tham gia vao bat cu chuang trinh CS nao Mac du vay, tinh hinh trd ngn kha quan ban nam 2014 tac dpng tigu cue cua CS cd y nghta thdng ke d miic thap hem ddi vdi cac hd nhan HTTN va dac biet la khdng cdn y nghia ddi vdi cac hp nhan HTTLSX, cho thay tac ddng cua cac CS kiiililAltrien cd the cd dp trg tdi kha nang cai thign phiic Igi ciia cac hd Tuy nhign, khoan thu nhqp tu hoat dgng sdn xudt nong nghiip ciia cac hd nhan CS lai cd xu hudng bign ddng theo hudng tich cue rat rd rang tit nam 2012, vdi cac he sd udc lupng cd y nghia thdng ke d muc cao CSHTTN khign miic gia tang thu nhap tir san xuat ndng nghiep cua cac hd cao ban 1,7 trieu so vdi cac hd khdng nhan hd trp nam 2012 va sd tang Ign 2,8 trieu ddng vao hai nam sau dd Tac ddng tich cue tdi thu nhap tir san xuit ndng nghiep tir CSHTTLSX cdn in tupng hem, vdi miic chgnh lech kep giiia nhdm tham gia va nhdm ddi chiing lan lupt dat 2,3 trieu ddng va cai thien len 3,7 trieu ddng hai nam 2012 va 2014 vdi y nghTa thdng ke rit cao d miic 1%, cho thay phan nao tinh higu qua va diing hudng ciia CS Ben c^nh dd, hai nhdm CS trp giiip cung cd xu hudng tac ddng duang tdi thu nhap tir hoat dgng sdn xudt phi nong nghiip cua cac hd va ciing gia tang muc dp tac ddng theo thdi gian, vdi tac ddng ciia nhdm CSHTTN true tigp Idn hem, nhign cic he sd udc lupng deu khdng cd y nghia Ngoai ra, viec nhan hd trp CS dudng nhu cung khdng cd tac ddng rd rang nao tdi tien luang hay tiin cong nhan dupe cua cac hd Miic gia tang tong chi tiiu ciia cac hd nhan hd trp cung cd xu hudng thap hon khoang 1,6 trieu ddng so vdi miic tuemg ung cua cac hp cdn lai trongnam2012ddi vdi ca hai nhdm CS Tuy nhign, nam 2014, miic chenh lech da giam di va khdng cdn y nghia thdng ke ddi vdi cac hd tham gia CSHTTN, dd, CSHTTLSX da cho thiy tac ddng tich cue tdi tdng chi tieu ciia cac hd vdi chgnh lech kep vao khoang 381 nghm ddng, tac ddng khdng cd y nghia ve mat thdng ke Trong ca cau chi tieu, so vdi nhdm khdng dupe nhan hd trp, cac hp tham gia CS cd xu hudng gia tang chi tieu cho y te va dac biet tang nhigu nhat chi tiiu cho ddng lau ben, tiic la hp dudng nhu da cd digu kien de quan tam hon tdi viec cai thien sue khde va nang cao chat lupng cudc sdng Cu the, cac hd dupe nhan HTTN tang chi tigu cho dd diing lau bdn nhieu ban khoang 500 nghin ddng va 1,1 trieu ddng so vdi nhdm khdng nhan hd trp lan lupt sau hai nam va sau bdn nam vdi y nghia thdng ke d miic rat cao (1%), cac sd ddi vdi cac hp nhan HTTLSX lan Iu0 la 60 nghin va 912 nghin ddng Tuy nhien, ngupc lai, miic gia tang Sd 245 thdng 11/2017 chi tiiu cho gido due vd chi tieu cho sinh hogt ciia nhirng hd dupe nhan CS lai thap han kha ro, mdt phan cac CS da giiip hp giam thigu dupe it nhieu cac chi phi Ngoai ra, lupng gia tang chi tiiu cho luang thuc thuc phdm va dau tu cho boat ddng san xuat kinh doanh cua cac hd nhan HTTLSX ludn thap hem so vdi nhdm khdng tham gia CS, cdn ddi vdi cac hp dupe HTTN true tidp thi miic gia tang cac khoan chi tigu chi cao hon so vdi nhdm khdng dupe hd trp nam 2012 rdi lai thip han vao hai nam sau dd, cho thay phan nao tdc dpng ngin ban va khdng bgn virng cua nhdm CS mac dii cAc he sd lign quan dgu khdng cd y nghia thdng ke Tdm l^i, ket qua nghien cim thuc nghiem cho thay cac CS hd trg chua thg cai thidn rd ret phiic Ipi cua cac hd ngheo giai doan nghign ciru nhung tac ddng ciia cac CS ddu cd xu hudng bign chuygn theo hudng tich cue theo thdi gian Digu dang chii y la, cac hd tham gia CS mac du khdng fang tdng thu nhap hay tdng chi tigu nhung lai gia tang dupe dang ke cac phan thu nhap tii boat ddng san xuat ndng nghigp va phi ndng nghiep, ddng thdi chi tieu nhigu ban cho hang hda lau ben va cac dich vu y tg K^t luan Nghign cim dupe thuc hien nham xac dinh cac nhan td quyet dinh kha nang tham gia cac CSHTTLSX va HTTN va udc lupng tac dgng ciia cac CS tdi phuc Ipi ciia HGD d Viet Nam Kgt qua udc lupng md hinh PSM cho thay cac bign dp tudi, trinh dp giao due cua chu hd va cac bien gia khu vuc va dan tpc quygt dmh kha nang tham gia ca hai nhdm CS hd trg ciia HGD; dd, cac nhan td xac dinh xac suat tham gia CSHTTLSX cdn cd quy md hd, thu nhap binh quan va bien gia hd cd ngudi di lam an xa va cac nhan td xac dinh xac suat tham gia CSHTTN bao gdm ti le ngudi phy thupc va tinh trang hon nhan cua chu hd Kgt qua udc lupng tir md hinh DID cho thay viec tham gia cac CS hd trp vao nam 2010 chua cd tac ddng tich cue lam cai thien tong thu nh^p ciia cac hd sau khoang thdi gian bdn nam, nhung lai lam gia tang dang ke phan thu nhap tu boat ddng san xuat ndng nghiep ciia cac hd vdi miic dg tang din theo thdi gian, dac biet ddi vdi nhiing hg tham gia CSHTTLSX, ddng thdi cho thay diu hieu cai thien phan thu nhap hi boat ddng san xuat phi ndng nghiep ddi vdi ca hai nhdm hd Digu cho thiy tac ddng cua cac CS tdi kha nang cai thien phiic Ipi ciia cac hd cd the cd dp tre Ddng thdi, cac 29 kinlit^J'iiaKrien CS Cling chua cho thiy tdc dpng tich cue rd rang tdi tt:g true tigp bang tign vigc cai thien phuc Ipi tdng chi tiiu ciia cac hd dupe nhan hd trp Ddi vdi cac phin chi tigu, cac hd cd xu hudng tang chi chii ygu cho hang hda lau bgn va dich vu y tg, giam chi cho giao due va chi smh hoat mpt each tuane ddi so vdi cac hd khdne nhan tra giiip tdi-u Luuiie uui ov, vui & » 1Rieng vdi cac hd nhan HTTN, cac khoan chi cho ° , , , ; •: jx ^ , , ^luong thuc thuc pham va dau tu cho hoat dpng san xuit kinh doanh chi cd d i u hieu tang Idn sau hai nam cua ngudi ngheo Kdt qua kha tning hpp vdi kgt qua ciia nhieu nghien ciiu qudc tg Tuy nhien, muc ^^ ^^ ^^^g g^^ Q^ ^^y ^ yiet Nam van cdn kha ^^.^ ^^^^ ^ A ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^^ ^^ ^^^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ i - ' j - ' i ., s , ; , ^^jj tupng, CO tac dong tich cue va ben vung, can co _ , - , - t, • • t =- , cac nghien cuu ky luang, sau ban va vai chuoi thui " &^^ dai ban dg xac dinh dupe cac tieu chi tham gia rdi sau lai giam di Digu dd cho thiy tdc dpng ciia dung vd day du, cd cdch thirc thuc hien hd trp hieu nhdm CS dudng nhu khdng bdn viing Kgt qua nghign cuu tiiuc nghiem trSn chi ring nhdm CSHTTLSX cd le v l n hieu qua hem cdc CS hd qua va khdng tdn kem va tign hanh giam sat, ddnh gia qua trinh thuc hign hd trp mdt each khach quan vd minh bach Tai li^u t h a m khao Chow, G.C (2006), 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Discussion Paper, 15(02), The University of Nottingham, Febraary 2015 H6 Dinh Bao (2016), 'Tac d^ng cua h5 ttp tu lieu san xuit va thu nhap dgn phiic Ipi ho gia dinh Viet Nam', Tap chi Kinh te Doi ngogi,^l, 11-19 Kuman, L (2013), 'Poverty Eradication in India: A Sttidy of National Policies, Plans and Programs', International Refereed Research Journal, 4(2), 68-80 Mendola, M (2006), 'Agricultural technology adoption and poverty reduction: A propensity-score matching analysis for rural Bangladesh', Food Policy, 32(2007), 372-393 Nguyin Ngpc Son (2012), 'Chinh sach giam ngheo d nude ta hi?n nay: Thirc trang va dinh hudng hoan thien', Tap chi Kinh ti & Phdt triin, 181,19-26 Nyangena, W & Maurice, O.J (2014), 'Impact of Improved Fami Technologies on Yields-The Case of hnproved Maize Varieties and Inorgamc Fertilizer in Kenya', Environment for Development, Discussion Paper Series, EfD DP 14-02, SIDA Oi, J C & Haas, W (2008), DevelomenI Strategies Welfare Regime and Poverty Reduction in China, UNRISD Project on Poverty Reduction and Policy Regimes Phan Thi Nii (2010), 'Danh gia tac dpng ciia tin dung doi vdi giam ngheo d ndng thon Vi^t Nam', Lufln van Thgc sy, Dai hoc Kinh tS TP H6 Chi Minh Trin Thi Thanh Tii, Nguyin Qudc Viet & Hoang Huu Lpi (2015), 'Determinant of Access to Rural Credit and Its Effect on Living Standard: Case Study about Poor Households m Northwest, Vietnam', International Journal of Financial Research, 6(2), 218-230 Venetoklis, T (2004), '.An Evaluation of Wage Subsidy Programs to SMEs Utilising Propensity Score Matching', VATTResearch Reports, Government Institute for Economic Research, Helsinki, Finland Vuong Qudc Duy (2012), 'Impact of Different Access to Credit on Long and Short Term Livelihood Outcomes: Group-based and hidividual Microcredit m the Melong Delta of Vietnam', CAS Discussion Paper No 86, Centre for Intemational Management and Development Antwerp & Centre for ASEAN Studies Sd 245 thdng 11/2017 30 KtiiliMiiHrieB ... tham gia cac nhdm CS hd trp nam 2010 chua cho thay tac dpng tich eye lam cai thien tong thu nhap cua c i c hg cac nam 2012, 2014 Cu thd, nam 2012, miic gia tang tdng thu nhap cua cac hd tham gia. .. mSy thap ky vita qua, Viet Nam da dat duac nhiing cdng to Idn vg kinh tg, xa hdi va xda ddi giam ngheo vdi ty le hd ngheo giam manh tir 58,1% nam 1993 xudng chi cdn 7,2% nam 2015 Tuy nhien, thuc... khoang thdi gian bdn nam, nhung lai lam gia tang dang ke phan thu nhap tu boat ddng san xuat ndng nghiep ciia cac hd vdi miic dg tang din theo thdi gian, dac biet ddi vdi nhiing hg tham gia CSHTTLSX,