Tac dong cua tien gu'i ve den hanh vi tieu dung cua ho gia dinh Viet Nam PHAM QUANG TRONG* Tom tat Bdi vie't sff dung mo hinh Working-Leiser vd bo sdlieu Khdo sdt mffc sdng ho gia dinh (HGD) cua Viet Nam (VHLSS) nam 2016, de ddnh gid mffc tac dong cUa nhdn td tten gffi ve tff ngudi di cude'n hdnh vi tieu ddng cua HGD d Viet Nam Ke't qud nghiin cffu cho thdy, mffc tde dong khong ldn nhung tiin gffi vi co dnh hudng den hdnh vi tieu dung cua HGD; tien gffi ve ddng gdp mot ty IS co the xem xet nhU mgt nguon thu nhdp vd tde dong tich ctfc do'i vdi dau tu gido due vd tdi chinh HGD Tii khda: tien gffi ve, hdnh vi tieu diing, hg gia dinh Summary The paper uses Working-Leiser model and Vietnam Household Living Standard Surveys (VHLSS) 2016 to assess the impact of remittance from migrants on consumption behavior of households in Vietnam The results show that the impact is not considerable but the remittance affects the consumption behavior of households; remittance can be considered as a source of income and it creates a positive influence on educational investment and household finance Keywords: remittance, consumption behavior, household GIOI THIEU Tien giJi ve tif ngifdi di cif ddng mdt vai trd quan trpng sif phat trien kmh te'cua HGD va dia phifdng c6 ngifdi xuat cif, nha't la d cac nifdc dang phat trien nhif Viet Nam Sif ddng gdp kinh te'cua ngu'di di cu'difdc xem xet qua cac dong tien (hang) ngifdi di cif (bao gdm ca di ctf ndi dia va di cif qud'c te) g^i ve Theo dd, dong tien ngifdi di cif gu'i ve dang trd nguon thu nhap thtfdng xuyen, dn dinh cua mdt sd' HGD nhan tien gijfi ve d cac nu'dc dang phat trien, dong thdi cting la mot ye'u to' tich cifc de thiic day tang trifdng kmh ted ca'p tinh va cap qud'c gia (Dietmar IVIeyer va AdelaShera, 2017) Kieu hd'i cang the hien nguon thu ngoai iB quan trpng d cac nu'dc dang phat trien va khdng th^ phu nhan md'i quan he chat che giiJa kieu hd'i va tang tru'dng kinh te cua quo'c gia nhan kieu hd'i (Flore Gubert, 2005) Lu'dng kieu hdi ve Viet Nam da gan nhtf lien tuc tang qua c&c nam (chi giam vao nam 2009 - nam dau cda khung hoang tai chinh va suy thoai kinh te toan cau) Nam 2019, vdi mu'c nhan 16,7 ty USD kieu hdi da la nam tht? ba lien tiep Viet Nam nam nhdm 10 nifdc nhan kieu hd'i Idn nhat the gidi, tang 4,4% so vdi nam 2018, difa mu'c binh quan nam thdi ky 2016-2019 len cao gS'p tren 2,33 lan mdc tu'dng u'ng cila thdi ky 1999-2015, va cao gap tren 34,7 lan mii'c tifdng tfng cua thdi ky 1993-1998 (Minh Nhung, 2020) Ben canh do, cdn cd mdt so lu'dng den ngu'di di cU trifc tiep mang theo (khdng thdng qua he thd'ng tin dung va ngan hang) nhu'ng chuye'n ve tham que cd the la rat ldn Nhm d goc dp vi md, nguon tai chinh tCf ngifdi di cif mang ve chinh la mdt nguon vd'n ddng gdp thiic day dau tu" va giai quye't cac van de ddi ngheo Tuy nhien, hieu qua mang den tii ngu6n vd'n ngu'di di cif mang ve lai phu thupc vao quyet dinh siJdung cua HGD nhan tien gffi ve Nghien ciJu thifc nghiem nhifng tac ddng ciia tien gufi v^ de'n hanh vi tieu dhng cua HGD d Viet Nam, de cd can cu' de xua't giai phap hifdng vao nang cao hieu qua siV dung nguon vd'n ti^ ngu'di di cif ddi vdi HGD nhan den gffi ve, mang tinh cS'p thid't 'Vien Nghien cu'u Quan ly kinh te Trung i/dng Ngdy nhdn bdi: 06/04/2020; Ngay phdn bien: 14/04/2020; Ngdy duyel ddng 22/04/2020 23 PHl/ONG PHAP NGHIEN COu Sd lieu phuc vu cho nghien cffii du'dc trich Ipc ta "Bg sd lieu khao sat Mu'c sdng HGD ctia Viet Nam " (vdi Slf cung cap va hd trd ky thuat cua Ngan hang The gidi va Chu'dng trinh Phat trien Lien hdp qud'c) nam 2016 va du'dc trien khai tren pham vi ca nu'dc Dung lu'png mlu dieu tra difdc nlch lly nghien cffij la 9.399 hd/46.995 hp difpc khao sat tai 3.133 xa/phifdng, dai dien cho ca mfdc, cac vung, khu vifc thi, ndng thdn va tinh/thanh phd'trifc thugc Trung ifdng Difa tren cd sd thifc nghiem tnfdc cua Quinn, M A (2005) va Osih, U O (2007), nghien ciiu sif dung md hmh Working - Leser (Working, 1943, Leser, 1963) de phan tich tac dong cua den gffi ve den hanh vi tieu diing cua HGD d Viet Nam Ky thuat tinh loan cua Working Leser chi rd md'i quan he tuyen tinh giifa phan bo ngan sach vdi logarit cua tong chi tieu va thoa man toan bo cac yeu clu td'i ifu can bang Gia dinh cd ban cua mo hinh nay, gom: chi deu HGD la mdt ham tai san (vat chat va ngifdi) va mdi tnfdng kinh te, cac tai san cd the difdc tao de chi tieu (Juhan May va Ingrid Woolard, 2007) Phifdng trinh phan bo cho tifng hang muc hang hoa i du'dc tinh toan rigng biet, nhtf sau: thifc pham, khdng phai thifc pham, nha d, y te, giao due, hang hoa tieu dung, dau vao va cac rien ich ndng nghiep, dau tlf va hang hda lau ben Trong qua trinh phan tich thay ddi cd clu tidu dilng ciia HGD, nghien cffii tap trung xem xet cac nhdm hang hda chu ye'u (chie'm ty trgng cao tieu dung ciia hd), de nhan dinh cac tac dpng cua ti^n gffi ve de'n hanh vi rieu dung cua HGD Tac gia de xua't md hinh nghien ciiu nhu' sau: W^_ = a+ P, ln(EJ + A, ln(RJ + A, ln(E,J%„ + ln(ZJ + r, Trong do: Wj^^: Ngan sach phan bo cho tuHg danh muc hang (difdc tinh toan neng biet theo tirtig hang muc hang nhif sau: thiic pham (Food), khong phai Ihifc pham (Non food), nha d (Housing), y te (Health), giao due (Education), hang hoa tieu dung (Utility), dau vao va cac tien ich ndng nghiep (Agricultural inputs), dau tu' va hang hoa lau ben (Investmems and Durables) cho HGD h va d thdi gian t; E^,: Tdng chi tieu HGD h d thdi diem t (1.000 VND); Ri^^: Tong so' rien gffi ve HGD h nhan difdc nam t (1.000 VND); ln(E|,,) * R^,: Bie'n tifdng tac; Sii tifdng tae ln(EJ * R cho phep rien gffi ve thay ddi he sd chan (intercept) cua du'dng cong Engel va xu hifdng bien cua chi ti6u, ttiu nhap va anh hifdng bien cua cac bie'n de'n chi tieu cho tffiig danh muc hang hoa; Zj^^: Vector dac diem HGD va dac diem ciia chu hg; + Dac diem nhan khlu ciia hd bao gdm: sd' tre em phu thupc (so' ngu'di); so' ngifdi gia phu thudc (so ngu'di); so ngifdi tudi Iao ddng (sd'ngu'di); md'i quan he; Mang lifdi di cif {=1 ne'u HGD cd ngu'di than, ban be hoac hang xdm di cif; =0 ne'u khac); 4- Dac diem ciia chu hp bao gom: Gidi tinh ciia chii hg (Gidi tinh ciia ho =1 chii hg la nam; =0 ne'u 24 gidi tinh khac); Trinh d-' iipc vfi'n cua c u chii hp; hd (tinh bang so'nam cii :gc cua - v v -"! L-.J.16 au n a m UL V- " ^ gy Tinh trang hdn nhan ctia chu hg {-' chii hg da ke't hon; =0 ne'u khacK lu*', trang viec lara ciia chii hd (=1 "f" ^ hd khdng cd viec lam; =0 ne'u khac) ^, a, P,, P,, P3, p^: Cac tham sd'chifa biet, the hidn su khac biet phSn bo^ngan sach cua HGD h Dieu dd the hien stf khac bidt, rinh da dang phan chia ngan sach cua hg h; ' £- Sai sdmd liinh KET QUA THAO LU^N NGHIEN cOU VA Ke't qua u-tfc Itftfng mo hinh Phan bd chi tidu cua HGD phti thudc vao nhieu ye'u td khac nhau, nhu": dac diem ciia chii hd (gidi rinh, ludi chu hd, trinh dp hgc van ciaa chii hd ), dac diem HGD (sd'ngu'di phu thudc, sd' vien ho, vi tri dia ly ciia HGD ) Tuy nhien, nghien ciiu tap trung vao phan tich cac he so' da difpc ddc lifdng cua bi6'n dpc lip: tien gffi ve l\i di cif ndi dia (Domestic remittances) va tiln gffi ve ttf dl cif qudc te (Overseas remittances) vdi bien phu thuoc (phan bd chi tieu), Ket qua udcjudng md hinh Working - Leser difdc the hien d Bang 1, chi ring: (1) Tien gffi ve anh hifdng de'n hanh vi fi,tieu dung cia HGD, nhien tac ddng nay^khong ldn Ke't qua phu hdp vdi nhieu nghien cffii tnfdc ve mdi quan hg giua tien gffi v^ vdi hanh vi tieu dung ? ; i " ^ ^ ^ ^ i ^ h a r d H Adams Jr A Thnnh N T " ' ^ ' 2010a, 2010b va Thi Thanh Nga Bui, Thi Thanh Ngan Le va cong stf, 2015) ° h? g.Oa phun bS chi tieu chl E T - ' ' ' " ' ' " tong cht tieu hang nam cia fe? ? am; theo Icet qua U8c luons h„„„ '"™;''l chi tieu tiing them % t u i ° ° | ""ra- '^"S giam 14,2% ch, t,6u t h * ! " ? ' " * quan diem lanh te, ket qui „|,f I',''™- T£f luat ciia Engel va cac nghiSn • ^"^ ' ^ ' - sau thu nhap diip (;„'/'*' > " * cau thiet yen, thi phSn thu i^a ""J;, '^i'': nhu thjfc pham giam thu nhap a *°'"'" tien guS ve dong gop , „it A |s°*.''™n8 xetnhu"m6tngti6n thi ihSp r QaA mo HINH WORKING - LESER TAC DQNG CGA TIIN ocfi VE DEM HANH VI TlEa DOtiG HO GIA DIMH Cham soc D dung Phi Thi/c Giao due Nha Kh^c Bi^n d$c l$p siic khoe \ka b i n thtfc Dh^m Coeffcient Coeffcient Coeffcient Coeffcient Coeffcient Coeffcient (se) (se) (se) (se) (se) (se) fse) 0.007*** 0.007^** 0.025^** 0.087*** 0.005*** Tone chl tieu -0.142*** 0.013*** (O.OOi) (0.003) (0,002) (0.00^) (0.0031 (0.001) (0.001) Gi6i tinh chu ho 0.0015** 0.0002** 0.0012** 0.0008*** 0.0006** 0,0004** 0.0011* (0.0000) (0.0002) (0,0000) (0,0004} (0.0000) (0.00011 (0.0002J Tudi chii tio -0.0014** -0.0003*** 0.0014*** 0.0009*** -0.0007*** -0.0005** 0.0010*** (0.0005) (0.0000) (0.0002) (0,0000) (0.0000) (0.000 n (0.0002) 0,00002** -0,00001** 0.000002 -0,00001*** Binh phu'tJng tuoi chu ho fO.OOOOO) (0.00000) (0.000002) (0.00000) -0.016*** 0,002 0,008*** 0.004* -0,007*** 0,002* 0,004*** Capl (•0.005) (0.0011 (0.003) (0.004) (0.002) (0.002) (0.002) -0.026*** 0.004*** 0.018*** -0.003 -0.007*** 0.005*** Can'' 0.006*** (0.004) (0.002) (0.002) (0.003) (0.002) (0.0021 (0,003) -0,034*** 0,012*** 0.024*** -0.004 -0.018*** 0.008*** Can 0.009*** (0.007) (0.003) [0.0021 (0,004) (0.004) (0.003) (0.0031 -0.020*** 0.023*** 0.020*** -0.014*** -0.022*** 0.004* Chuven nshieo 0.009**^ (0.005) (0.002) (0.004) (0.0021 (0.002) (0.003) (0,004) -0,012*** 0,0024*** 0,033*** -0,008*** 0,0067*** -0,011*** -0,012*** So vien HGD (0.0004) (0.002) (0.002) (0.0008) (0.001) (0.00 n (0.0011 Binh phiTcfng so vien -0,0022*** 0,0004** 0,0006*** 0,0007*** (0.0002) (0.0003) (0.00011 (0.0003) trone HGD 0.012 -0.002*** -0.014'** 0.008*** 0.003*** 0.003*** 0.002 Tv le Dhu thuoc (0.003) (0.002) (0.0021 (0.0021 (0.001) (0.002) (0.001) -0,008** -0,004** 0.004 0,120*** 0,0008 -0,001 -0,003 T G V til Dl Cif noi dia (0.005) (0.002) (0.0031 (0.0451 (0.0032) (0.001) (0.0021 -0,033*** 0,011** 0.114** 0.003 0,013* 0.0033 -0,008* TGV ILf di cu' nu'dc ngoai (0.0034) (0.005) (0.007) (0.005) (0.052) (0.006) (0.008) 0,017*** -0,009 -0,003 0.001 0,023*** -0,027*** -0.005 Dong bSng song Hong (0.004) (0,003) (0.0011 (0.004) (0.003) (0.005) (0.005) 0,023*** 0,003 -0,002 -0,023*** 0,006 0,015*** -0.023*** DSng bang song Cu'u Long (0.004) (0.0041 (0.0021 (0.0041 (0.002) (0.0031 (0.003) Bic Trung Bo va Duyen hai 0,004 -0,004** 0,0003 0.003 0,022*** -0,031*** 0,007*** (0.004) (0.0021 (0.006) (0.00 L) (0.00041 (0.0031 (0.0041 mien Truna -0,007 -0,007* 0,004 0,028*** -0,036*** 0,008*** 0,009*** Tay Nguyen (0.004) (0,005) (0.003) (0.005) (0.004) (0.003) (0.002) 0,011*** 0,016*-* -0,0003 -0,022*** -0.008*** 0,041*** -0,037***^ Trung du va mien nui phia Bac (0.002) (0.0021 (0.006) (0.00^2) (0.003) (0.003) (0.005) 2,047*** 0,022 -0.135*** -0,184**" -0,751*** 0.057*** -0,082*** He so (0.036) (0.017) (0.0171 (0.036) (0.014) (0.0161 (0.0251 0.0782 R-sauared 0.1574 0.1618 0.1165 0.3409 0.1887 0.1535 * the hien miic di)tincqy ldn hm Id 10%, 5%, 1% Nguon Tac gia u'flc lu'dng ti]f S' Khi SO sanhketqua nghien CUTJ vi3i cac nghien cthi khac, nhif cua Richard H Adams Jr va Alfredo Cuecuecha 2010a, 2010b va Una Okonkwo Osili (2007) cho thay, tac dgng cua ti^n gufi v^ de'n phan bo chi tieu cho giao due va nha cf cua Viet Nam manh hon cac n\i6c khac (iii) Dang chii y theo nhii ky vong, yeu t6' tien gu'i ve (bao g6m ca di cu' npi dia va di cif quoc te) deu co rndt vai tro tich cue phan bo chi Cieu cho giao due va tai chinh HGD Cu th6', nhffng HGD nhan du'Oc tien giJi ve t^ ngifSi di ctf quo'c te chi tieu nhieu hOn cho vS'n de giao due - coi dau tif vao giao due la mot nhiJng ifu tien hang dau cho sif nghiep va tifOng lai mai sau Vdi miJc dp tin cEly 99%, cac HGD chi tai ehinh u VHLSS 2012-2016 cho giao due cao hOn 11,4% so vdi eac HGD khong nhan du'dc tien giJi ve Theo nhffng nghien ciJu tru'dc do, chi tieu nhieu cho gido due se giup tang cifdng vo'n nhan life, kieh thieh tang tru'dng dai ban, dac biet la mot nen kinh le dang phat tri6'n nhif Viet Nam (iv) Nhffng HGD nh§n difdc tien g&i ve tif ngffdi di cif noi dia, thi chi tieu cho dieh vu cham sde sffc khoe nhi^u hdn 12% so vdi cac HGD khong nhan dffdc tien gu:i ve tif ngffdi di eff Trong thifc te', di cff ndi dia tap trung vao do'i tffdng lao dpng tre va cac vien tich cffc cua HGD, ho Ehffdng di cif hffdng d6'n cac khu vifc thi va eac khu cong nghiep ndi ed nhieu cd hoi viec l^m de tang them thu nhap, nang cao dieu kien sd'ng; phan ldn ngffdi di cff khong di chuyen ciing gia dinh, ly cd the la hp chu'a ISp gia dinh hoae gia dinh ho van dang cff tru tai dia ban noi hp di Do dd, kh^ nang eao nhflng ngffdi d eon iai HGD tai ndi ban dau ctia ngffdi di cff se la ngffdi gia v^ tre nhd - do'i tffdng co nhu cau dac biet va nhu cau 25 eham sde y te cao hdn Vi vay, theo nguyen tac t6ng khong doi thi tang ehi tieu cho mot khoan muc se dan den giam chi tieu cho mpt khoan inuc khac, cu the la phan bo ehi thffc pham va phi thffc pham^dffoc bao cao hanh vi gffi tien v6 tifdi cff npi dia cua HGD (iii) Ke't hop muc ti^ tha h^tj'^" ^ ^ ve tff ngirdi di eff noi va q^f [ thdc daV hoat dong cua ^c doanh ngn P nffdc, dac biSt la c:!C ^^o^"" "f ^ £ nho va vffa bang cac chinh sach ho trp dung cu the, dl tie'p can KET L U A N V A M O T S K H U Y E N NGH! (iv) H6 trd hoat dong kh^i nghiep, khuyen khieh HGD tan dung v6n uch luy Ke't qua nghien cffu cho thay: (i) Co sff khac bi?t tff tien gffi ve va kinh ns^hiem tu' nhffng phan bo chi tieu giffa hp gia dinh nhan dffdc tien ngifdi di eff vao dau tu^'phat trien san giti ve vdi h6 gia dinh khong nhSn dffdc tien gffi ve; Oi) xua't, khdi nghiep Tien gu'i ve tff ngffdi di cff ca npi dia va quoc te'deu anh ^ Thff hai, dd'i' vdi HGD nhan tiin gu'i hffdng de'n hanh vi tieu diing eua hp gia dinh, nhien vl can can nhac tieu dung hdp ly, nen s^ mffc dp anh hffdng khong !dn; va (iii) Tien gu'i ve tff dung ngudn tien gffi ve vao dau tff cho ngffdi di cff ca ndi dia va quo'c te'deu cd vai trd tich cffc phat trien ben vffng va san xua't kinh te do'i vdi dau tff giao due va tai chinh HGD HGD, cu the: (i)^ Sff dung ben vffng ngudn tien De khai thac cd hieu qua nguon von tff tiin gu'i ve cua ngifdi di cff, thi can cd chinh sach khuyen khich su" ehuyen ve HGD va ngffdi di cff n6n dung tien gffi ve dffa vao dau tff d cac Hnh vffe khae sff dung tien ehuydn vi vao cac muc nliau hoac tie't kifim sinh ldi dai han, nghien cffu tieu phat tri^n dai han, nhff: dau khuye'n nghi eho Chinh phu va HGD nhan tien gffi ve tu cho phat trien ngudn nhan lUc (giao due, hpe nghe ); diu tMt&i san cd'dinh mpt so' va'n de, nhff sau: Thff nhdt, Chinh phu can cd cac chinh sach hffu hi&u tap cho md rong san xuS't, kinh doardi kinh trung vao viec thu hut, kiem soat va nan ddng tien gffi ve te'HGD vao hoat dpng dau tif gop phan phat trien kinh te, cu the: (ii) Han che tieu diing nhffng mat (i) Dinh hffdng hoac tao dpng lffc de tien gcfi ve hang ehffa can thiet, tieh luy de dau tU dffdc sff dirng vao cac khu vffc san xua't va eac linh vffc hoac khdi nghiep HGD va ngffdi di cff phat trid'n nguon nhan lffc nen bie't tan dung so vd'n tich luy va kinh (ii) Nang cao trinh dp dan tri va sff am hiS'u kie'n nghifim tff qtia trinh di cff lao dgng vao thffc ve kinh te, tai chinh cua ngffdi dSn di ngffdi dan hoat dpng dau tff san xua't, kinh doanh hoac khdi nghiep • sff dung tien gu'i ve mdt each hieu qua nha't _ TAIJ.IEU THAM KHAO _ Tdng cue Thd'ng ke (2012) Gidi vd tien chuyin ve cda lao dong di cu, Nxb Tho'no ke Tong cue Tho'ng ke (2016) Ket qud khdo sdt mffc sdng ddn cu Viet Nam ndm 2016, Nxb Tho'ng ke Minh Nhung (2020) Luong kieu hdi ve Viet Nam lien tuc tdng, truy cap tff https7/baodautu vn/ luong-kieu-hoi-ve-viet-nam-lien-tuc-tang-dll4228.html Thi Thanh Nga Bui, Thi Thanh Ngan Le va cpng sff (2015) Microlevel impacts of remittances on household behavior: Viet Nam ease study, Emerging Markets Review, 25, 176-190 Flore Gubert (2005) Migrant remittances and theh impact on development in their home trvthe case of Africa, Institut de Recherche pour le Developpement et TInsertion international P "^"^ Richard H Adams Jr va Alfredo Cuecuecha (2010a), Remittances, household e ' ^^!v and investment in Guatemala, World Development, 3^U), 1626-1641 expenditure RichardH Adams Jr va AUi'edo Cuecuecha (2010b) The economic impact of international m " poverty and household consumption and investment in Indonesia, Policy research working nam Asm'^^^ *^" Julian May va Ingrid Woolard (2007) Poverty traps and structural poverty in „'^^^^5433) Reassessing the evidence from KwaZulu-Natal, Chronic Poverty Research Centre ^ Africa: Dietmar Meyer va Adela Shera (2017) The impact of remittances on economi econometric model, EconomiA, 18(2), 147-155 S'"owth: An 10 Una Okonkwo Osili (2007) Remittances and savings from international migrat and evidence using a matched sample Journal of development Economics, X3(2), 445 2^' "^'^e' neory 11 Leser CEV (1963) Forms of Engel function, Econometrica, 31,694-703 ' " 12 Michael A (^uinn (2005) Remittances, savings, and relative rates of remrn """al The Journal of Developing Areas, 1-23 ' *"""' 13 WorkingH.(1943).Statisticallawsoffamilyexpenditure,7oHmaio/r/!t Xmericn Association,3^,A3-56 '''''"'mical 26 ... sdt mffc sdng ddn cu Viet Nam ndm 2016, Nxb Tho'ng ke Minh Nhung (2020) Luong kieu hdi ve Viet Nam lien tuc tdng, truy cap tff https7/baodautu vn/ luong-kieu-hoi-ve-viet -nam- lien-tuc-tang-dll4228.html... Mu'c sdng HGD ctia Viet Nam " (vdi Slf cung cap va hd trd ky thuat cua Ngan hang The gidi va Chu'dng trinh Phat trien Lien hdp qud'c) nam 2016 va du'dc trien khai tren pham vi ca nu'dc Dung lu'png... Le va cpng sff (2015) Microlevel impacts of remittances on household behavior: Viet Nam ease study, Emerging Markets Review, 25, 176-190 Flore Gubert (2005) Migrant remittances and theh impact