THAI DO DOI VOfI RUI RO VA THU N H A P CUA N N G H O DONG BANG SONG CUtJ LONG Nguyen Tuan Kiel Khoa Kinh te, Dqi hoc Can Tha Email: ntkiet@ctu.edu.vn Trinh Cong Dijc Tu vdn ddc lap Email: trinhcongduc20II@gmail.com Doan Phirong Quyen Tu vdn ddc lap Email: quyendp97@gmail.com Trifffng Thuy Tien Khoa Kinh te, Dqi hoc Cdn Tha Email, tttien028@gmail.com Ngay nhiin, 23/12/2019 Ngay nhin ban siia' 07/1/2020 Ngay duyf t dSng: 05/8/2020 Torn tat: Muc tiiu chinh cua bdi viet Id ludng thdi ddi vai nil ro cua ndng hg vd xdc dinh moi quan he giU-a thai dg ddi vai rui ro vd thu nhap ciia ndng hg a Dong bdng Song Ciru Long Ddy Id nghien ciru tien phong a Viet Nam su dung phuang phdp thi nghiem thuc dia thdng qua viic cdi tien thang danh muc gid (Multiple price list) Nghien ciru da tien hanh khao sat vd Idm thi nghiem vdi 70 ndng ddn Kit qud phdn tich dir Hiu cho thdy (I) ndng hg cd thdi so' riii ro rdt cao, vd (2) tim thdy mdi quan hi thuan chiiu giira thdi doi vai rid ro cua ndng hd vd thu nhap ciia hg Tir khoa: Ndng hd, thu nhap, Ddng bang Sdng Cihi Long, thai dd ddi vdi nii ro M a J E L : D90, Q U Risk attitude and income of farmers in the Mekong River Delta Abstract: The paper, amongst the firsts, is to measure the risk attitude of farmers and to investigate the correlation between the attitude to risk and income of the farmers in the Mekong River Delta Attitude to the risk of 470 farmers is measured by a modified multiple price list (MPLJ The results show that (i) farmers are highly averse to risk, and (ii) the risk attitude is positively correlated with the income of the farmers Keywords: Farmer, income, Mekong Delta, risk attitude JEL Codes: D90, Q12 I Gidi thieu Nghien eim dugc thyc hien vdi muc tieu chinh la ludng thai ddi vdi nii ro va kiem cbirng moi quan he giiia thai dg ddi vdi nii ro va thu nhap ciia hd san xuat ndng nghiep d Ddng bang Sdng C\m Long Nghien ciiu dugc tiep can bang phuang phap thi nghiem thyc dia ludng thai ddi vdi rui ro cua ndng bg bang thang danh muc gia (MPL), Thang MPL, tir nam 1980, da dugc mdt sd nha kinh te hgc ung dung nghien ciiu ngoai thyc dia lucmg thai dd ddi vdi rui ro cua cac ca nhan, dac biet la ddi tugng de ton bi thucmg, khu vyc cgng ddng gap rui ro cao, ndng thdn (Binswanger 1981; Mumigban & cgng sy, 1988: Gonzalez & Wu, 1999; Holt & Laury, 2002 2005; Eckel & Grossman, 2003; Harrison & cdng sy 2005 2007; Andersen & cgng su, 2006) Gan day, MPL dugc van dung nghien eim a nhieu khu vuc ndng thdn S6 279 thdng 9/2020 65 kJnll ll'J'llill li'it'n khac nhu: Brick & cgng sy (2012), Reynaud & Coubue (2012), Jianjun & cdng sy (2015) va Chamess & Viceisza (2016) Cac kit qua cho thiy ndng hg cd thai sg nii ro, dac biet la yong frudng hgp gia "i phan thudng cao Thai dg ddi vdi nii ro cung thay ddi theo bdi canh khac va dac dilm ca nhan nhu gidi tinh, bidi, dan tdc, hgc vin (Mulmo & cgng sy, 2006; Bobi & cdng sy, 2007), dac dilm kinh tl giau, ngheo va CO chi phap luat (Balbissen & cgng sy, 2008) Sii dung MPL ludng thai ddi vdi nii ro la mgt each tilp can dan gian dd bill dugc cac gia di ky vgng ma mdt ddi tugng dua quylt dinh lya chgn "nhi phan" bi mgt danh muc gia di tiln thudng thuc te ho|c gia dinb LTU dilm ciia MPL la dan gian, dl thyc hien va ddi tugng cung dl nhan thiy dugc Igi ich tdt nhat cua hg yong mdi muc gia tri lya chgn (Andersen & cgng sy, 2006), Nhung ban chi cua MPL la hi?u iing khung sii dung cac gia bi bien d bai diu cua bang danh muc gia, nen doi tugng tham gia tin rang day la gidi han tren va dudi hgp ly, do cd xu hudng chuyen tir lya chgn an toan sang may nii tai diem trung binh ciia gia tri tien thudng; va ddi tugng tham gia cd xu hudng lua chgn khdng nhit quan bang danh muc gia nen ket qua sai lech Do dd, bai viet da khic phuc bing viec chuyen ddi lien die thii dJ cac lya chgn MPL, phan thudng ky vgng trung binh dang tin cay se tao dgng lye cho lua chgn phii hgp vdi sd thich thyc cua ngudi choi Ddng bang Sdng Cim Long la khu vyc dugc chgn thyc hien thi nghiem bdi vi: khu vyc bj tdn thuomg cao anh hudng cua bao, lu lut va nude bien xam nhap, dien tich ndng nghiep ciia ddng bang se bi tdn that nang ne (World Bank, 2010) Dieu gay thiet hai dang ke den san xuit ndng nghi?p va sinh ke cua ngudi dan yong viing (Tuan & Dung, 2015; Tri, 2016) Cac tinh/thanh cd biln tai Ddng bing Sdng Cuu Long diu bi anh hudng bdi nii ro bi ngap va xam nhap man (Tran, 2013; Diep, 2015; Thai Minh Tin & cgng sy, 2018) Nganh ndng nghiep ciia viing dang ddi mat vdi nhieu khd khan Idn tir bien ddi hau nhu nhiet thay ddi, mua bao thit thudng, yieu cudng va xam nhap man, ddng chay thugng ngudn sdng Me-kdng bi thieu hut (Vd Van Tuin & cdng sy, 2014; Chinh phii, 2017) Rui ro v6 thdi tilt, sau dich benh, va kinh te ciing da anh hudng tieu cue den thu nhap ndng hd (Nguyen Tuin Kiet & Nguyln Tin Phat, 2019; Nguyln Tuin Kiet & cgng sy, 2020) Ngoai ra, vin de riii ro ve bien ddi hau ciing anh hudng den tinh yang di cu va tai dinh cu cua cgng ddng dan cu tai cac tinh Ddng bang Sdng Cim Long (United Nations, 2014) Chun & Le (2012) cho thay ap lye mdi trudng cd nhieu tac ddng den sinh ke va la nguyen nhan chinh viec day ddng di cu d ndng thdn den cac viing phat yien tdt han Cac nghien ciiu da cho thay van de nii ro ve bien ddi hau da dang de dga nghiem trgng den san xuat, va ddi sdng xa hdi cua ngudi dan viing Tuy nhien, cd kha it bang chiing thyc nghiem ve thai ddi vdi riii ro cua ngudi dan bdi canh bien ddi hau tai Ddng bang Sdng Cuu Long Qua luge khao, bai viet tim dugc hai tai lieu quan tam ve thai dg ddi vdi nii ro cua ndng hg: Le & cdng su (2014) sir dung ly thuyet ddng Iyc bao ve giai thich kha nang iing phd riii ro bien ddi hau ciia ndng hg va Tanaka & cdng su (2010) sir dung ty thuyet trien vgng ludng thai doi vdi riii ro ciia hd ngheo Ddng bang Sdng Cuu Long va Sdng Hong Tuy nhien, ca hai ket qua chua de cap den mdi quan be giira thai ddi vdi rui ro va thu nhap ciia ndng hg Vi vay, bai viet khao sat 470 ndng hd tai tinh Ddng bang Sdng Cim Long de kiem chiing mdi quan he Bai viit da ddng gdp vao ly thuyet quyet dinh trudng hgp cd rui ro dd la: thai sg nii ro cua ndng hd cd mdi tuang quan ciing chieu vdi thu nhap, tam ly sg riii ro da mang lai nhirng Igi ich tich cue cho ndng hd Bai viit cung dua du doan rang: ndng hd ddi mat vdi nii ro hoac nhan dien nhung nii ro tiem nang cd thd anh hudng bat Igi den sinh ke va boat ddng san xuat tbi hg se phan ling lai bang nhirng hanh vi chu ddng thyc hien phdng ngira va ting phd nii ro de giam thieu tdn that hoac mat mat cho kinh te ciia hd Dieu kha phii hgp vdi bang chimg thyc nghiem gan day cua Nguyln Tuan Kiet & Nguyen Tuan Phat (2019) va Nguyen Tuan Kiet & cdng su (2020) Nhu vay, thai ddi vdi rin ro cua ndng bg ddng gdp mgt vai trd quan trgng nhiing quyet dinh ve san xuat - kinh te hd, nhat la, su lya chgn chien luge phdng ngira va ling phd vdi nii ro Phin cdn lai bai viet dugc chia phin: phin trinh bay phucmg phap thi nghi?m thuc dia va mo hinh dinh lugng; phan trinh bay ket qua nghien ciiu dat dugc va phan cudi la ket luan va dua mdt vai ham y Phu-oTig phap nghien cuu Sd 279 thdng 9/2020 66 kinhli'j'lialtrji'ij 2.1 Thiet ke thi nghiem thuc dia Phuong phap ludng thai ddi vdi nii ro bing MPL dugc dilu chinh bdi Reynaud & Coudire (2012), Brick & cgng sy (2012) va Jianjun & cdng sy (2015) Trong nghien ciru MPL dugc thilt kl brong di nhung cd dilu chinh dl phii hgp vdi doi digng ndng dan d khu vyc nghien cuu, ndi dung thi nghiem nhu sau: De khac phyc su lya chgn khdng nhat quan (chuyin ddi qua lai giua cac phuong an chuyin sang cac ddng lya chgn kl tilp) va hieu img khung (xu hudng chuyen ddi lya chgn tai gia \n trung binh), chung tdi khdng de ngudi choi dj diln vao phieu tra loi, thay vao dd, bd di 01 phdng vin vien phdng vin yyc tilp 01 ngudi cboi_, va hdi tuin dr cho mdi phuong an lua chgn, nlu ngudi lya cbgn khdng nhat quan thi phdng van vien se nhic nhd Ddng thdi, chung tdi sir dung menh gia 100.000 Viet Nam ddng (VND) cho miic gia bi cao nhat va 10.000 VND cho miic gia tri thip nhit (ngudi choi nhan dugc), chiing tdi thilt kl miic lua chgn tra idi thay vi 10 miic lya chgn (nhu Holt & Laury, 2002), va dilm chuyin ddi giira Lya chgn va chenh lech 30.000 VND (0) dilu da khic phuc dugc diem ban chi cua phuong phap MPL Lua chgn A la lya cbgn chac chan (khdng nii ro); Lua chgn B la lya chgn nii ro; Bang cho biet phuong an quyet dinh lya chgn giiia A va B; Ngudi hudng dan la phdng van vien da dugc tap huan nim rd phuang phap MPL; Ngudi tra Idi la chii hg hoac ngudi true bip san xuat cda bg Trong phin trinh bay kit qua thi nghiem chiing tdi cdn ggi la "ngudi chai" hoac "ngudi tham gia" - Trudc kbi tien hanh yd choi, cac phdng van vien phdng van cac chii bd ve dac diem ca nhan, kinh te hd gia dinh, cac mdi quan he xa hdi va nhirng nii ro thudng gap - Thi nghiem dugc thuc hien qua hai giai doan nhu sau: Giai doan I: Qo luang thai rui ro Ngudi hudng dan gioi thidu cu the hinh thiic tham gia thi nghiem va Igi ich ma ngudi tham gia cd the nhan dugc tir phuang an lya cbgn A hoac B Trong phuong an lua chgn dugc thiet ke theo mdt danh sach gia tri tien thudng giam din tir 100,000 VND din 10.000 VND NIU cbgn A, ngudi choi chac chan nhan dugc gia yi tiln thudng tuong iing vdi lya chgn, Neu chgn B, ngudi choi se tien hanh tung ddng xu vdi xac suit la 50% nhan 100.000 VND va 50% la ddng Sau ngudi choi hieu ro luat choi thi bg se dugc phdng van Bang 1: Phuo-ng an lua chgn thi nghiem Lya chon^"^ Lya chgn A Lua chpn B Ket qua chpn Dugc 100,000 ddng neu mat hinh xuat hien Chan chan duae nA Duae ddng neu mat chii xuat hien 100.000 ddng HB Dugc 100.000 ddng neu mat hinh xuat hien Chan chan dugc nA Duae ddng neu mat chir xuat hien _70.000ddng_ HB Dugc 100.000 ddng neu mat hinh xuat hien Chan chan dugc HA Duoc ddng neu mat chii xuat hien 60.000 ddng nB nA Duae 100.000 ddng neu mat hinh xuat hien Chan chan dugc ns Duae ddng neu mat chii xuat hien 50,000 doiig nA Dugc 100.000 ddng neu mat hinh xuat hien Chan chan dugc ns Duoc ddne neu mat chir xuat hien 40.000 ddng nA Dugc 100.000 ddng nlu mat hinh xuit bien Chan chan duae na Duoc ddng neu mat chii xuat hien 30.000 ddng nA Dugc 100,000 ddng neu mat hinh xuat hi?n Chan chan dugc nB Duae ddng neu mat chii: xuat bien 20,000 ddng Duae 100,000 ddng neu mat hinh xuat bien nA Chan chan duoc Duae ddng nlu mat chii xuat hien nB 10.000 ddng Ghi chii:'"' thir lu ndy duae thay ddi giira cdc ddp vien di kiem sodt cho hieu ung thir lu (Order effect} IY; hieu irng khung (Framing effect) Ngudn Nhom nghien cuu thiil ke ndm 2018 Sd 279 thdng 9/2020 67 killll 1(^*1)111 Iril'fl \ ien hdi lan lugt phuong an lua chon dk dua quvit dinh chon A hoac chon B teong philu d^ Idi nhu Bang Xguori choi dugc yeu cau quyet dinh man tu cho mdi phuang an lya chgn va quyet dinh cua nguoi chcn phai nhat quan cho den phuong an lya chgn chuydn di "an toan" sang "mao hilm " Vi du mgt ngudi choi cd quyet dinh nhu sau: chgn A cho cac Lua chgn I din tai Lua chgn gia di tien thudng la chan chan dugc 50.000 VND neu chgn A va 50 '50 nhan dugc 100.000 \ N D neu chgn B, ngudi choi quylt dinh chgn B Vi vay di Lua chgn den 8, ngudi choi chgn lya chgn B Giai doan 2: Xac dinh gia tri tien thudng ngudi chai nhgn duae Sau tra Idi xong phuong an, ngudi choi se bdc ngau nhien mgt la tham dugc danh so tbii ty tu den 8, mdi la tham dai dien tuong iing \m phucmg an lya chgn d giai doan Tuy vao ket qua bdc tham, ngudi choi se dugc tra tucmg iing vdi phucmg an da chgn Vi du: neu ngudi choi bdc dugc la tham sd va ket qua giai doan tai Lya chgn la chgn A tbi ngudi chai se nhan dugc 60.000 \'ND Ngugc lai neu nguoi choi chgn B cho Lya chgn thi nguoi chai se thyc hien tung ddng xu de xac dinh gia tri tien thudng Neu mat Hinh xuat hien, ngudi choi nhan dugc 100.000 VND, neu mat Chir xuat hien ngudi chcri khdng cd tien thudng di trd choi Ngoai ra, chiing tdi da hd yg 40.000 X'ND ngudi chai de bu dap thdi gian hg da den tham gia thi nghiem va cung cap thdng tin 2.2 Phuang phdp thu thap dir lieu Nghien ciiu khao sat ngau nhien 480 ndng dan tai tinh bi anh hudng bdi \ an de nii ro ve bien ddi kbi hau gdm: An Giang, Ben Tre Can Tho Long An, Kien Giang, Sdc Trang Mdi tinh chgn ngau nhien huy?n, mdi huyen chgn ngau nhien xa va mdi xa chgn ngau nhien 20 ndng dan cd thu nhap chinh tir san xuat ndng nghiep (7 hd ydng lua, bg nudi thuy san \ a hd trdng \irdn) Cdng cu thu thap sd lieu la bang cau hdi cau tnic dugc thiet ke san, ndi dung thu sd lieu gdm Phan la thdng tin dac diem chii hd va hd gia dinh, tinh hinh sii dung dat san xuat, tai san sii dung ben lau boat ddng ndng nghiep, nii ro san xuat va mdi quan he xa hgi Phin la ndi dung thi nghiem ciing dugc thu bang bang cau bdi da thiet ke sin Sau sang lgc, 470 quan sat da dugc sir dung cho phan tich 2.3 Phuang phdp phdn tich Ham thu nhap dugc phat trien dau tien bdi Mincer (1974) Ham thu nhap Mincer the hien mdi quan he giiia thu nhap va giao due, vdi gia thiet bd qua yeu td kinh nghiem Md hinh cd dang Logarit nhu sau: lnY^ = lnY+r*S (I) Trona dd, S: sd nam di hgc; T,,: thu nhap hang nam cua nguoi khdng di hgc; Y: thu nhap hang nam ciia ngucri cd di hgc S nam; r la Igi suat bien Ham thu nhap cua Mincer dugc xem la ham ly thuyet co ban de phat trien nghien ciiu \ e cac \ eu td anh hudng den thu nhap Trons cac tai lieu nghien cuu thyc nghiem d cap ndng hg da xac dinh dugc nhieu yeu td anh hudng Bang 2: torn tat bien doc lap va dau ky vgng Bien ddc lap Gidi tinh chii hd Kinh nghiem Hoc van chii hd Dien tich Tai san \ ! d i quan he \ a hdi Khuven ndne Sd lan sap nii ro Khuxorc Mo hinh lua Thai sa nii ro Dien giai = Nam: = Nii Sd nam hoat d d n g ndng nghiep Sd nam di hgc Dien tich dat san xuat (m") Tdng gia Ui tai san hien cd cua hg^lOOO ddng) I = Chii hd quen biet \ di can bd dia phuong; = Khdn^ = Hd tham gia khuyen none: = Khdna Sd lan gap nii ro u o n g nam I = Nam sdng Hau: - Bac sdng Hau; = Md hinh san xuat liia: = Khac So lan chpn A S phuang an quyet dinh tir ihi nuhiem MPL Ngudn .\lioni nghien ciiu thiet ke ndm S6 2-9 thdng 9/2020 Ky vong + + [ -^ -(+ 20h\ bS kliblrj'hiiiirjefl Bang 3: Thong ke cac bien djnh tinh Bien quan sat Giai tinli Khuyen nong Moi quan lie xa lioi Khu vuc cu tru Mo hinh san xuat Nam chii ho Nu chu ho Tham gia Idiuyen none Khong tham gia Idiuyen nong Co moi quan he xa hoi Khon^co moi quan he xa hoi Phia Bac song Hau Phia Nam song Hau Mo hinh Ilia Khac TonR Soluong 430 40 343 127 254 216 240 230 322 148 470 Ty le (%) 91,5 8,5 73,0 27,0 54,0 46,0 51,1 48,9 68,5 31,5 100 Nguon • So li^u khao sdt nong hg ndm 2018 den thu nhap ndng hg Dinh Phi Hd (2003) cho thiy cac ylu td anh hudng din thu nhap gdm: nang suit, dien tich dat, chi phi san xuit, kien thiic ndng nghiep Nguyln Qudc Nghi & Biii Van Trinh (2011) cho thiy cac yeu td anh hudng den thu nhap: hoc van chu hd, sd lao ddng hd, tiep can chinh sach, tudi lao ddng tnmg binbciiahg Mai Van Nam & Dinh Cdng Thanh (2011) cho thiy cac yeu to anb hudng din thu nhap: sd lao dgng, vdn luu dgng, boat dgng san xuat Le Xuan Thai (2014) cho thay cac yeu Id anh hudng den thu nhap: sd vien, dien tich dat, tham gia td chiic dja phuong, chi phi san xuat Nguyen Tuan Kiet & Nguyen Tan Phat (2019) cho thay cac yeu td anh hudng den thu nhap gdm: hgc van chii hd, iing phd nii ro, mdhinh san xuat, kinh nghiem san xuat Dua vao co sd thuc nghiem tren, bai viet xay dyng mdt md hinh kmh te lugng ca ban dudi d^ing hdi quy da bien de kiem cbii'ng mdi quan he giiia thai ddi vdi nii ro va thu nhap cua ndng bg nhu sau Thu nhap =^,j + P *Giai tinh + 0^*Kinh nghiem + ^^*Hgc vdn + fl^*Dien tich + P^*Tdisdn ^ fl^Quan h^xdhgi + p^* Khuyen ndng + p^*Ruiro + ^^*Khu vuc + ^^y*Md hinh lua + ^ij*Thdi sa rui ro + e^ (2) Trong do: Thu nhap la bien phu thudc, duoc tinh di thu nhap san xuat ndng nghiep cua hd, Thu nhap ciia cac hd khac va cd sy bien dgng nen dnh toan bien Thu nhap lay Logarit ty nhien dc giam su biln dgng giira cac quan sat, ^^ he sd chan, p^(l, 2, 3, , 11) la cac he sd hdi quy,e^: sai sd ludng Cac bien ddc lap dugc trinh bay d Bang Ket qua nghien cmi 3.1 Md td thdng ke cdc bien mau khao sdt Sd lieu d Bang cho biet 470 ndng hd dugc khao sat, cbii hd la nam gidi chiem 91,5% chu hd la nii chi cbilm 8,5% Tham gia khuyin ndng ciia chu hg: ty le tham gia chiem 73% va 27% khdng tham gia, dilu cho thiy da so ndng bg cd tham gia chuang trinh hoac cac cugc hgp khuyen ndng tai dia phucmg, viec tham gia boat ddng se giiip ich cho ndng hg viec nam bat ky thuat san xuat mdi de giup hg cai thien chit lugng san xuit va nang cao thu nhap Mdi quan he xa hdi cd 54% ndng hd quen bilt va 46"{i ndng hg la khdng cd quen bilt can bd dia phuong, Khu vyc khao sat ndng hg chia lam khu vyc, khu vyc Bic sdng Hau chilm ty le 51% va Nam sdng Hau 49% Ndng bd trdng lua cbilm 68,5% va san xuit md hinh khac chiem 31,5% So lieu d Bang cho thiy Hoc vdn chu hg tucmg doi thap, drong duong Idp Kinh nghiem canh tac ndng nghiep kha cao, bung binh la 33 nam, sd nam kinh nghiem nhilu cd the se gdp phin tich eye din viec phdng ngira, irng phd nii ro, nang cao thu nhap cho ndng hd Gia tri Tdi sdn dimg binh ciia hd la 40.677 ngan ddng Dien tich san xuit dit trung binh la 22,764 m-, tuong ddi cao, Thu nhap trung binh klioang 290,000 ngan dong/nam, Trong nam 2017 sd lin gap riii ro trung binh lin/nam (thien tai, ban ban, lu lyt, sau dich b?nh, gia ca ndng san biln dgng giam, gia phan thudc bien dgng tang) Sd lya chgn an toan yung binh ciia ndng hd di thi nghigm MPL la 5.21 dilu cho thiy ndng bd cd thai sg nii ro cao 3.2 Ket qud thi nghiem thuc dia Sd lieu d Bang cho bilt kit qua thi nghiem thyc dia bing phuang phap MPL Ty 1? lya cbgn A (an toan) S6 279 thdng 9/2020 69 kiilt'AHrleii Bang 4: Thong ke cac bien djnh lumig Bien quan sat Trinh dp hgc van chu ho Kinh nghiem san xuat nong nghiep So riii ro gap nam Thai sg rui ro Gia tn tai san cua ho Tong dien tich dat san xuat Thu nhap ciia nong ho Don vi tinh Nam Nam So lan So lan chon A 1000 dong m1000 dong/ho/nam Tmng binh 7,07 32,83 3,83 5.21 40.677 22.764 289 971 Dp lech chuan 0.16 0,53 0,09 0,13 822 1.160 39 139 Ngudn: So lieu khdo sdt nong hg ndm 2018 va lya chgn B (mao hiem) nhu sau cd 1,1% sd ngudi choi chgn B cho ca phuong an, day la nhdm nguoi chai ludn ludn mudn tbu van may mac dii bg da hieu dugc luat cua yd chai, do, cac quan sat se bi loai thyc hien phan tich hdi quy Ket qua tiep theo, cd 42,8%) so ngudi tham gia chgn tit ca phuang an A (chac chan nhan dugc I sd tien thudng nhat dinh cho mdi phuang an lua chgn) ma khdng thay ddi quyet dinh chuyen sang lya cbgn B cho mdi mire gia tri phan thudng thap hem Dieu cho thay miic dd ky vgng gia tri tien thudng d quyet dmh mao hiem (B) ciia ngudi choi thap ban miic ky vgng lua chgn an toan (A) mang lai, nghTa la ndng hd co thai cue ky sg rui ro, Nhu vay, ket qua thi nghiem tai Ddng bang Sdng Cim Long cho thay ndng dan cd thai cue ky sg rui ro Kit luan drong dj vdi Reynaud & Coumre (2012) Bnck & cdng sy (2012) va Jianjun & cdng sy (2015) Tuy nhien, so vdi kit qua ciia Jianjun & cdng sy (2015) cho thay: ndng hd tai Yongqiao Trung Qudc cd thai bang quan riii ro kha cao (38,5%) so vdi ndng bd Dong bang Sdng Cim Long (15,7%); thai dd sg nii ro ciia ndng bd (44%) lai thip bon ndng hg Ddng bing Sdng Ciiu Long (54.9%) Xu hudng thai sg nii ro cua ndng dan Ddng bang Sdng Cim Long cao ban so vdi ndng dan d Yongqiao Trung Qudc 3.3 Mdi quan he giira thdi ddi vai rui ro vd thu nhap ndng hg Kit qua d Bang cho thay md hinh nghien ciiu cd y nghia ve mat thdng ke (p = 0,000, F = 53,30), R- = 0,561, he sd da cdng tuyin (VIF) cua cac biln ddc lap < 2, he sd ty drong quan DurbinWatson = 1,5 < 1,596 < 2,5 cho thiy md binh ude lugng khdng cd hien brgng dr tuong quan va da cdng tuyln Kit qua kilm dmh phuang sai sai sd thay ddi cho thay phan du ciia bien phu thudc khdng cd y nghia thdng ke vdi cac biln giai thich d miic y nghia 5% Kit qua cho thiy Thdi sa rid ro cua ndng hd tuong quan thuan chieu vdi thu nhap ciia hg va cd y nghTa thong ke (he sd 0,257 vdi p < 0,01) Dilu cho thiy cac quyet dinh lua chgn an toan cua ndng hg se cd tac ddng tich eye din thu nhap Kit qua cung cap bang chimg ro rang ban ve moi quan be tich cue giira thai doi vdi riii ro va thu nhap ciia ndng hd so vdi ket qua ciia Tanaka & cdng sy (2010) Lien he thuc tien, chiing tdi thiy ring tam ly sg riii ro cua ndng hd da mang lai nhiing Igi ich tich eye cho hg Khi ndng Bang 5: Ket qua thi nghiem thuc dja MPL Tan so Diem chuyen doi phuong an Lua chon A sang B Luon chon B 84 21 28 74 26 13 18 s 201 Luon chon A Ngiioii: sS lieu khao sal nong ho nam 20IS si 279 thing 9/2020 70 Tyle(%) Phan loai thai rui ro 1,1 17,9 4,5 6,0 15,7 5,5 2,8 3.8 42,8 Cue ky thich rui ro Rat thich nii ro Thich nii ro Bang quan voi nii ro So nii ro thap So nii ro cao So nii ro riii cao So nii ro cue k\ - ttinhlrJ'liaiiriei Bang 6: Ket qua ytVc Itrong hdi quy Bien doc lap He so hoi quy Sal so chuan Hang so 7,608 0,632 Gioi tinh 0,172 0,465 Hgc van 0,600 0,082 Dien tich dat 0,021 0,035 Kinh nghiem 0,235 0,120 Quan he xa hpi 0,102 1,287 Khuyen nong 0,327 0,111 0,023 Tai siin 0,054 Mo hinh lua 0,050 0,103 Khu virc 0,156 0,099 Thai sg nii ro 0,063 0,257 Soriiiro gap san xuat -0,382 0,080 He so R' He so R^ hieu chinh Gia tn F (sig < 0,01) Kiem dinh da cgng tuyen (VIF) So quan sat (N) Ghi chii: Phuang phdp ude lugng binh phuang nho nhdt (OLS) Mo hinh khong xdy Heteroscedasticity Nguon So lieu khdo sdt nong hg ndm 2018 Gia tri p 0,000 0,007 0,000 0,552 0,051 0,000 0,003 0,019 0,630 0,118 0,000 0,000 0,561 0,551 53,30