Báo cáo về tiềm năng thị trường bất động sản việt nam rediscovering vietnam’s real estate potential

LUAN VAN CHAT LUONG download : add luanvanchat@agmail.com REDISCOVERING VIETNAM’S REAL ESTATE POTENTIAL Presented by: Marc Townsend – Managing Director 1st March, 2007 Renaissance Hotel, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia LUAN VAN CHAT LUONG download : add luanvanchat@agmail.com WHAT HAS BEEN DRIVING THE PROPERTY MARKET SINCE 2003? •Limited capital markets •An emerging condo market in Hanoi and HCMC • Conspicuous consumption • Ability to borrow from local banks at 10-11% per annum • Consistently rising GDP and FDI • China + 1, APRC, the Stock Market and entry to WTO has put Vietnam on the radar screen, coupled with the ML report in Feb and the Euro Money Conference in Mar 2006 • Saturation in other South East Asian markets Client Logo Goes Here CB Richard Ellis | Page LUAN VAN CHAT LUONG download : add luanvanchat@agmail.com MAP OF VIETNAM Client Logo Goes Here CB Richard Ellis | Page LUAN VAN CHAT LUONG download : add luanvanchat@agmail.com HO CHI MINH CITY Client Logo Goes Here CB Richard Ellis | Page LUAN VAN CHAT LUONG download : add luanvanchat@agmail.com VIETNAM TODAY • No Starbucks and No MacDonalds • World leaders in pepper, coffee, cashew, shoes, fish/prawns, oil & gas exports • No shortage of land, just good sites • “If you build it, they will come” still exists but may not last much longer • Many similarities to China in the early 90s in terms of work ethic, chaos on the streets, migration of work force and market driven decisions • Traffic, complete absence of infrastructure, MRT/MTR, bridges and tunnels Client Logo Goes Here CB Richard Ellis | Page HCMC Prime Office Stock End of Q1.2007 sqm 350,000 300,000 250,000 Office Stock at the beginning of the quarter 1/ 07 Q 4/ 06 Q 3/ 06 Q 2/ 06 Q 1/ 06 Q 4/ 05 Q 3/ 05 Q 2/ 05 Q 1/ 05 Q 4/ 04 Q 3/ 04 Q 2/ 04 Q 1/ 04 200,000 Q LUAN VAN CHAT LUONG download : add luanvanchat@agmail.com HCMC OFFICE MARKET New supply during the quarter Client Logo Goes Here CB Richard Ellis | Page Prime Office Rental Index 160 140 Index (Q1 1998 = 100) US-VN Bilateral Trade Agreement 120 100 80 60 40 And the upward trend will continue due to: • Growing demand • Delays in new supply 20 Q1 98 Q2 98 Q3 98 Q4 98 Q1 99 Q2 99 Q3 99 Q4 99 Q1 00 Q2 00 Q3 00 Q4 00 Q1 01 Q2 01 Q3 01 Q4 01 Q1 02 Q2 02 Q3 02 Q4 02 Q1 03 Q2 03 Q3 03 Q4 03 Q1 04 Q2 04 Q3 04 Q4 04 Q1 05 Q2 05 Q3 05 Q4 05 Q1 06 Q2 06 Q3 06 Q4 06 Q1.07 LUAN VAN CHAT LUONG download : add luanvanchat@agmail.com HCMC OFFICE MARKET Client Logo Goes Here CB Richard Ellis | Page LUAN VAN CHAT LUONG download : add luanvanchat@agmail.com Vimedimex Golden Tower Sacombank DTH Major Buildings Existing - Future PetroVietnam Saigon Trade Center EVN Saigon Tower Centec Gemadept Pacific Place Sailing Tower Asiana Plaza Diamond Plaza Metropolitan Bao Viet Vietcombank Me Linh Point Saigon Center Times Square Sun Wah CB Richard Ellis | Page VPBank Financial Tower Client Logo Goes Here M&C Tower LUAN VAN CHAT LUONG download : add luanvanchat@agmail.com HCMC OFFICE MARKET SOME OF THE NEW OFFICE BUILDINGS COMPLETED IN Q1 2007 Opera View, Dist Lancaster, Dist Rosaco, Dist Estimated Total Supply in Q1 2007: 47,843 sqm Petro Vietnam, Dist CB Richard Ellis | Page E – Town 2, Tan Binh District Client Logo Goes Here LUAN VAN CHAT LUONG download : add luanvanchat@agmail.com HCMC OFFICE MARKET s qm Take up and vacancy rate of HCMC office buildings % 18,000 16,000 8.0% 14,000 12,000 10,000 6.0% 7.0% 5.0% 4.0% 8,000 6,000 4,000 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 2,000 - 0.0% Q1.04 Q2.04 Q3.04 Q4.04 Q1.05 Q2.05 Q3.05 Q4.05 Q1.06 Q2.06 Q3.06 Q4.06 Take-up (Sqm) Vacancy Rate (%) Client Logo Goes Here CB Richard Ellis | Page 10 LUAN VAN CHAT LUONG download : add luanvanchat@agmail.com HANOI SERVICED APARTMENT MARKET SKYLINE Location: Dang Dung St., Ba Dinh Dist., Hanoi Developer: Nam Hung Corporation (Nahuco) Marketing: CB Richard Ellis Vietnam- Exclusive Marketing Agent Project: Serviced Apartment Building 23 storey building with basement Completion Date & Opening Date: Q1/2007 Leasable Area: NLA: 8,714sqm 88 Apartments Opening date CB Richard Ellis | Page 62 Q1/2007 Y-o-Y Visitor Arrivals to Vietnam Nu mber of Fo reign Visitor A rriva ls to Vietn am 4,000,000 60.0% 3,500,000 50.0% 3,000,000 40.0% 2,500,000 30.0% 2,000,000 20.0% 1,500,000 10.0% 1,000,000 0.0% Number of foreign tourist arrivals y-o-y change - Low fair airlines: AsiaAir, Jetstar & Tiger Airlines - 20% of 3.6 million int’l visitors was MICE tourists CB Richard Ellis | Page 63 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 -20.0% 1993 1992 -10.0% 1991 500,000 1990 ar r i val s LUAN VAN CHAT LUONG download : add luanvanchat@agmail.com HOTEL & TOURISM MARKET Tourist Profile I nt e r nat i onal Vi si t or A r r i val s by P ur pose s I nt e r nat i onal Vi si t or A r r i val s t o Vi e t nam 800 2,200 Taiwanese French British 700 600 Japanese American Chinese 2,000 1,800 Thous.Arrivals 500 400 Business Visitting Other 1,400 1,200 1,000 300 800 200 600 400 100 CB Richard Ellis | Page 64 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 200 1995 Tourism 1,600 1996 Thous.Arrivals LUAN VAN CHAT LUONG download : add luanvanchat@agmail.com HANOI HOTEL & TOURISM MARKET Room Supply: 4,924 (5, and star hotels) Number of Hotels 5-star 23.53% NU MB ER OF FOREIG N VISITOR A RRIVA LS 4,000,000 To Vietnam 3,500,000 To Hanoi 3,000,000 ar r i val s 3-star 61.76% 2,500,000 4-star 14.71% 2,000,000 1,500,000 Number of Hotels' rooms 1,000,000 500,000 - 1.15 million int’l visitor arrivals to Hanoi in 2006 5-star 48.01% 2006 2004 2002 2000 1998 1996 1994 1992 3-star 34.24% 1990 LUAN VAN CHAT LUONG download : add luanvanchat@agmail.com HANOI HOTEL & TOURISM MARKET 4-star 17.75% - 4,924 rooms, including 5, and star hotel rooms - star hotels: 2,364 rooms/ hotels - star hotels: 874 rooms/ hotels - star hotels: 1,686 rooms/ 21 hotels CB Richard Ellis | Page 65 Room Supply: 3,238 rooms (5 and star) Cumulative S tock & Ne w S upply of & star Hotel r ooms 3,500 New supply as at year-end Stock as at beginning of the year 299 3,000 1,131 2,500 R ooms - Most of and star hotels came on stream in 1990s 2,000 - No new supply over last few years 1,131 1,500 - Lack of quality hotel rooms 250 1,000 102 102 500 CB Richard Ellis | Page 66 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 218 1994 LUAN VAN CHAT LUONG download : add luanvanchat@agmail.com HANOI HOTEL & TOURISM MARKET LUAN VAN CHAT LUONG download : add luanvanchat@agmail.com HANOI HOTEL & TOURISM MARKET ADR & Occupancy rate of star hotels Monthly Occupancy Rate of Hanoi's -star Hotels Ave r age Occupancy Rate & ADR of -star Hote ls 100.00% 100% $140.00 $130.00 90% 90.00% $120.00 $110.00 80% 70% 80.00% $100.00 60% 50% $90.00 70.00% $80.00 40% 30% $70.00 60.00% 20% $60.00 10% 50.00% $50.00 Q2/2005 Q3/2005 Q4/2005 Q1/2006 Q2/2006 Q3/2006 Q4/2006 Ave Room rate Feb06 Mar06 Apr06 May06 Jun- Jul-06 Aug06 06 Sep06 Ave Occupancy rate - High demand - Limited supply - High occupancy rate, approximately 84% in Q4/2006 - star hotels: ADR of US$128.26 as at end of Q4/2006 CB Richard Ellis | Page 67 0% Jan06 - Stably high occupancy rate over years - Occupancy rate as at end Q4/2006: •5 star hotels: approx 84.28% •4 star hotels: approx 90.00% •3 star hotels: approx 80% Oct- Nov06 06 Dec06 Requir eme nt for Hotel Rooms (2 00 - 2 0) Hote l - F utur e S upply 30,000 Inter-Continental 2008 25,000 Dan Chu Hotel 2007 20,000 2007 Hanoi Sofitel Metropole 2007 Dong Loi Hotel R ooms LUAN VAN CHAT LUONG download : add luanvanchat@agmail.com HANOI HOTEL & TOURISM MARKET 20,715 15,000 10,000 11,076 5,530 5,000 2007 Hoan Kiem Hotel 4,924 6,285 3- to 5-star 1- to 2-star 4,170 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Rooms Market Highlights: - High occupancy rate - 390 new to star hotel rooms in 2007 - licenses were granted in early Q1/2007 to build 5-star hotels in My Dinh area CB Richard Ellis | Page 68 Actual Hotel Rooms as at 2005 Others Hotel Rooms Requirement as at 2020-2005 Hotel Market Outlook: - Hot market for investors, foreign investment funds … - High occupancy rate - Limited supply - High demand - Increasing number of int’l visitor arrivals - More high quality hotels required - Tourism industry has significant impacts on property sector (hotel, retail & second-home projects) LUAN VAN CHAT LUONG download : add luanvanchat@agmail.com HANOI RETAIL MARKET Numbe r of supe r mar ke ts by distr icts HANOI SUPERMARKETS No District Number of Supermarkets GFA (sqm) Trading area (sqm) Dong Da 11 17,140 11,533 Hai Ba Trung 8,480 5,580 Cau Giay 24,027 9,310 Hoan Kiem 10,280 5,870 Hoang Mai 2,554 1,004 Ba Dinh 7,865 3,520 Thanh Xuan 1,702 1,702 Tu Liem 63,585 11,725 Dong Anh 440 300 10 Thanh Tri 250 250 Total 46 136,323 50,794 Major players: -Intimex 23.91% 17.39% 13.04% 8.70% 8.70% 10.87% Dong Da Hai Ba Trung Cau Giay Hoan Kiem Hoang Mai Ba Dinh Thanh Xuan Tu Liem Dong Anh Thanh Tri T otal tr ading ar eas of S upe r mar ke ts in Hanoi (by distr ict) Thanh Tri 250 Dong Anh 300 11,725 Tu Liem -Fivimart Thanh Xuan -Citimart Ba Dinh -Hapro Mart 2.17% 2.17% 6.52% 6.52% 1,702 3,520 1,004 Hoang Mai 5,870 Hoan Kiem 9,310 Cau Giay Hai Ba Trung 5,580 11,533 Dong Da CB Richard Ellis | Page 69 3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000 sqm 15,000 F utur e Supply of Hanoi Shopping Centr es Net Ar ea and Aver age Rent of Hanoi Shopping Centr es sqm sqm 80,000 $100.00 Leasable Area (sqm) 70,000 $90.00 Gross Rent per sqm 140,000 Ciputra Mall SHOPPING CENTRES 120,000 $80.00 $60.00 40,000 100,000 Hanoi City Complex $70.00 50,000 80,000 Market highlights: - High occupancy - Strong & increasing demand - Limited supply - Increasing rental CB Richard Ellis | Page 70 Cau Giay Comlex The Garden Q4/2007 Q1/2008 2009 Ngoc Khanh Plaza Q4/2007 Q1/2008 Thai Thinh Plaza Q3/2007 Ruby Plaza 20,000 Q1/2007 $0.00 Pacific Place Hoa Binh Int'l Towers Me Linh Plaza BigC Thang Long Vincom City Towers VKO V - Tower Hanoi Tower Opera Business Centre $10.00 Viglacera 10,000 Q1/2007 40,000 $20.00 The Manor $30.00 20,000 60,000 Q1/2007 $40.00 30,000 Viet Tower $50.00 2010 60,000 Trang Tien Plaza LUAN VAN CHAT LUONG download : add luanvanchat@agmail.com HANOI RETAIL MARKET LUAN VAN CHAT LUONG download : add luanvanchat@agmail.com HANOI RETAIL MARKET FUTURE PROJECTS: Opera Business Centre: 6B Trang Tien Str GFA: 1,070sqm Completion date: Q1 2007 Pacific Place: 83B Ly Thuong Kiet Str GFA: 7,500sqm Completion date: Q1/2007 Ruby Plaza: 44 Le Ngoc Han Str GFA: 3,300sqm Completion date: Q1/2007 The Manor: My Dinh GFA: 6,000sqm Completion date: Q1/2007 The Garden: My Dinh GFA: 20,500sqm Completion date: Q1/2008 Viet Tower: Thai Ha Str GFA: 12,250sqm Completion date: Q1/2008 Ciputra Mall: Ciputra Hanoi Int’l City levels 130,000sqm and basement Completion date: 2009 Hanoi City Complex: Lieu Giai – Dao Tan GFA: 50,000sqm Completion date: 2010 CB Richard Ellis | Page 71 CIPUTRA SHOPPING MALL Market Outlook: WTO accession & the entry of foreign retailers New high- quality supply Increasing Demand New international brand-names coming to Vietnam Rental rate increase for high- quality spaces Housing: % of de tache d, se mi-de tache d & te r r ace Trend of Apartment Supply 2007-2020 90 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 90 75 72 72 94 94 95 91 91 88 50 84 60 50 83 70 60 92 80 70 30 40 30 Gia Lam Dong Anh Soc Son Thanh Tri Tu Liem Long Bien Thanh Xuan Ba Dinh 5,000 Hoang Mai Cau Giay 10 10,000 Tay Ho 20 10 Dong Da 20 Hai Ba Trung 15,000 82 80 40 20,000 82 54 25,000 82 Districts 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Year Hanoi City Housing: % of apar tment Trend of Villa Supply 2007-2020 35 35 (By current proposed and under-construction NUA projects in Hanoi & an adjacent region) 30 30 25 25 6,000 20 20 24 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 10 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Year CB Richard Ellis | Page 72 Districts Hanoi City (Source: HAIDEP’study) (Source: CBRE) 1 Dong Anh Gia Lam Thanh Tri Tu Liem Long Bien Hoang Mai Cau Giay Thanh Xuan Tay Ho Dong Da Hai Ba Trung 1,000 Hoan Kiem Soc Son 2,000 11 15 10 3,000 15 24 14 26 14 29 15 4,000 14 26 5,000 Ba Dinh No of apartments 30,000 100 100 Hoan Kiem 35,000 69 (By current proposed and under-construction NUA projects in Hanoi & an adjacent region) No of villas LUAN VAN CHAT LUONG download : add luanvanchat@agmail.com HANOI RESIDENTIAL MARKET S ale P r ice - Condos for sale 1,800 F utur e S upply of Condos for sale 1,900 1,800 1,600 3,500 3,000 1,500 1,400 2,500 1,200 1,200 1,000 800 800 U ni t s 2,000 U S $ / s qm LUAN VAN CHAT LUONG download : add luanvanchat@agmail.com HANOI RESIDENTIAL MARKET 800 2,000 1,500 600 1,000 400 200 500 Pacific Place The Manor Chelsea Park Hoa Binh Int'l Towers Ciputra Golden Westlake 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Market Highlights: - Foreign developers are interested in large projects - Korean developers are very active and will be key players in future; Japanese developers are also active -Local developers dominate small and medium projects CB Richard Ellis | Page 73 Market outlook: Housing Supply Vs Actual Demand in Hanoi Strong sales outlook for quality projects 30,000 housing units LUAN VAN CHAT LUONG download : add luanvanchat@agmail.com HANOI RESIDENTIAL MARKET Growing demand High demand for quality projects in prime location 20,000 Purchase finance Infrastructure improvement 10,000 2006 2007 Actual demand for housing CB Richard Ellis | Page 74 2008 2009 Supply (housing units) 2010 CB Richard Ellis | Page 75 LUAN VAN CHAT LUONG download : add luanvanchat@agmail.com HANOI RETAIL MARKET LUAN VAN CHAT LUONG download : add luanvanchat@agmail.com CBRE GLOBAL OFFICE LOCATIONS THANK YOU! www.cbrevietnam.com CB Richard Ellis | Page 76 ... LUAN VAN CHAT LUONG download : add luanvanchat@agmail.com 100 RICHEST PEOPLE IN VIETNAM (Till 3rd Jan 2007) Rank Name Listed companies Code Value (US$) Trương Gia Bình – Chairman & General Director... Here CB Richard Ellis | Page LUAN VAN CHAT LUONG download : add luanvanchat@agmail.com MAP OF VIETNAM Client Logo Goes Here CB Richard Ellis | Page LUAN VAN CHAT LUONG download : add luanvanchat@agmail.com... Goes Here CB Richard Ellis | Page LUAN VAN CHAT LUONG download : add luanvanchat@agmail.com VIETNAM TODAY • No Starbucks and No MacDonalds • World leaders in pepper, coffee, cashew, shoes, fish/prawns,