... Europe and the former Soviet Union, North Africa andthe Middle East, and Sub-Saharan Africa. The fourteen major economies include the G7 economies listed above and the developing and transition ... Timmer, and Ypma (2003, updated 2005). 15See Jorgenson and Motohashi (2005). 16WITSA stands for the World InformationTechnologyand Services Alliance. Other important sources of data include the ... Input, and Productivity. The final step in our analysis of the world growth resurgence is to describe and characterize the levels of output, input, and productivity for the world economy, the...
... than a thousand companies and reveals some interesting results. The third essay applies the model developed in the second essay to study the difference in the adoption and pay-off of the Internet ... it actually handled inventory andthe delivery of the products during the 1998-1999 time period. The correlation between the two labor measures is calculated. The log values of these two measures ... and processes. They categorized firms based on whether they are purely Internet based, the type of goods sold (digital or tangible), andthe type of electronic 16labor, and where t is the...
... Recommended catalogue entry: Information Technologyandthe Forest Sector. Report by the IUFRO Task Force on InformationTechnologyand the Forest Sector,” jointly organized by the International Union ... provider and 34by the owner or manager, the availability of resources, andthe attitude to and knowledge and acceptance of technology by employees. Externally, the decision to adopt the Internet ... compasses, and clinometers to gather information about the forest and shared results through paper reports. ICT is now required to efficiently manage the ecology andeconomy of the forest (Hansen,...
... passenger trips between the offshore islands and FujianProvince, including 144,234 from the offshore islands to the mainland, and 8,200 from the mainland to the offshore islands as of February 29,2004 ... between the two offshore islands andthe mainland. As part ofthat expansion of the mini-three links, the Taiwanese government alsoexpanded the list of products that the offshore islands can ... because of the fundamental role they play in information technologyand high -technology weaponry. They view the development of the semiconductor industry as being vital to economic development and national...
... way“takingover.”There is little attention given to the moremundane and immediatethreatsto the jobmarket andthe overall economy. Perhaps the technologists just assumethat once thetechnology ... littlemorebrightly.Theseare the employeesof the automakerbeingrefreshedwithnewlight.Anothertransferofwealthhastakenplace. The autoworkersinturnmakepurchasesfromotherbusiness,small and large, andthe lightcontin-uestoparadethrough the tunnel.We also know that behind the walls of the tunnelthere are more businesses and interconnections ... haveasweanticipaterecovery from the current cri-sis and in the years and decades ahead? What will the economy of the futurelooklike?Among people who work in the field of computer technology, itisfairlyroutinetospeculateabout the like-lihoodthatcomputerswillsomedayapproach,orpossiblyevenexceed,humanbeingsingeneralcapability and intel-ligence....
... mayhaveactuallyin-creasedforatime,astheywereabletolowertheirprices.Asaresult,theirprofits, and therefore the wealthoftheirtopemployees and shareholdersincreased.Thesewere the brighterlightsin the tunnelthatinitiallybecamestronger.However,asnearlyallbusinessesin the tunnelcontinuedtoautomatejobs,atsomepoint the decreasein the num-berofpotentialcustomersbeganto ... biotechnology and genetics could be considered atype of information science because it is focused on cataloging and understanding theinformation inourDNA. THE LIGHTS IN THE ... on the seconddayyouhavetwocents and thenfourcentson the thirdday, and soon. The firstcharton the nextpageshows the firstfifteendaysasourpennydoubles.Youcanseethatwestartoutvery slowly and then...
... madeevenmorechallengingby the factthat the objectscouldbeinmanypossibleorientationsorconfigurations.Consider the simplecaseofapairofsunglassessittingonatable. The sunglassesmightbeclosedwith the lensesfacingdown,orwith the lensesup.Orperhaps the glassesareopen with the lenses oriented vertically. Or maybe one side of the glassesisopen andthe other closed. And, ofcourse, the glassescouldberotatedinanydirection. And perhapstheyare ... securitieswerethensoldtobanks and financialinstitutionsallover the world,with the understandingthattheywereverylowriskinvestments.When the subprimeborrowersstarteddefaulting, the valueof the mortgage-backed securitiesplunged, andthe derivativesdidnotworkasexpected.Inmanycasesitwasdifficultorimpossibletocalculatetheirvalue.Inaddition,financialinstitutionshadengagedinmanyothercomplexinterrelationships ... hasquicklyattracted the noticeof the Securities and ExchangeCommission and mayresultinnewregulation.Astheseexamplesshow,wecanexpectthat the rateofchange andthe volatilityofnearlyeverythingarounduswill...
... demand will in-crease, andtheeconomy will therefore produce moregoods and services.Inotherwords, the samenumberofworkerswillbeemployedbuttheywillproducemore.32 The ... collating and faxing in-formation. The intellectualportionof the job—eitherap-provingordenying the loan—isprobablyalreadyessential-lyhandledbyacomputer.Throughout the economy, there*Formoreonrobotics and itspotentialimpactonemployment and on ... food—all of these and countlessthousandsofotherstructures and chemicalsthatcompriseourbodies and make usfunctionareproteins. And theyareallconstructedthroughnanotechnology.Itislikelythat the coming“nanotech”revolutionwillbegin...
... within their capabilities, then how willthey acquire the income necessary to create the demandthatinturndrivesproduction?Ifweconsider the singular-ityinthiscontext,thenisitreallysomethingthatwillnec-essarilypushusforwardexponentially?Orcoulditinac-tualityleadtorapideconomicdecline?** The technologistswhospeculateabout the singularitydon’tseemtooconcerned ... shouldersofAmerican and Europeanconsumers. And aswehavenotedagain and againinthisbook,thoseWesternconsumersalldependonjobs.Ifautomationbe-ginstodramaticallyimpactemploymentinChina,whileat the sametimedemanddwindlesin the West and certain-lyif the catastrophiceventdescribed at the beginning ofthischapteroccurs—thenthiseconomicperpetualmotionmachineisgoingtocollapse.Givenallthis,whatcanwereallysayabout the futureofChina?Nearlyafourthof the world’spopulationlivesinChina;therefore,thereisnodoubtthatthiscountrywillcontinuetohavesignificant, and perhapsincreasing,influ-encein the decadestocome.However,simplyextrapolat-ingcurrenttrendsisveryunlikelytogiveanaccuratepro-jection.Chinaisgoingtobeheavilyimpactedbyaccelerat-ing ... purchasing the goods they are producing. Oreveniftheycanaffordtobuythoseproducts,theyareun-likelytodo sobecausetheyaremuchmoreinterestedin THE LIGHTS IN THE TUNNEL...
... todecline.Rememberthatwearetalkinghereaboutaverageworkers.Toget the graphabove,youmighttake the dis-tributionofincomesin the UnitedStates and thenelimi-nateboth the richest andthe poorestpeople.Thengraph the averageincomeof the remaining“typical”people (the bulk of consumers) ... byindustries,productionbecomesmoreefficient.Thisresultsinsomelossofjobs,butitalsoresultsinlowerpricesforgoods and services.Inotherwords,itputsmoremoneyinconsumers’ pockets. These consumers then go out and buyallkindsof things, and so the resultisincreasedde-mandfor the productsproducedbyalltypesofindustries.Some ... nation,youwillinvariablyfindthat the U.S. economy isfarmorecapitalintensive.Ithasbeen the introductionofadvanced technology that has increased productivity and made the advancednationsof the worldrich. The reasonforthisgoesbackto the economists’ex-planationfor the “Ludditefallacy”whichwediscussedin the ...
... elimi-nates the jobsthatprovideincometoconsumers. The es-sentialideaisthatweshouldimposesomecombinationofaconsumptiontax and/ oraspecialdirecttaxonbusinessthatcaptures the incomewhich,inanon-automatedecon-omy,wouldbepaidoutinwages.Overtime,as the wagespaidtoaverageworkersdecrease(asapercentageofreve-nue),thesetaxeswouldbegraduallyincreasedtorecaptureatleastaportionofthisincome. The overallobjectiveistorecapturejust the optimalamountofincome and thengetitinto the handsofconsumerssothattherewillbesuffi-cientconsumerdemandtocontinuedriving the economy. Once the income ... unless there is either existing market de-mandor the reasonableexpectationofsuchdemandin the foreseeablefuture. The idea that productionrespondstodemandisoneof the definingcharacteristicsofcapitalism.Removing ... corruptionamongofficialsin the country.Thesepeopleveryoftenactprimarilyfortheirownbenefit and, inparticular,inwaysthat preserve theirpositions and power—rather thanfor the benefitoftheircountryasawhole.In the finalanaly-sis,...
... havestrongeducations and training.Thesepeoplearebeneficia-riesof theinformation age.On the toxicwastelandsideof the fence, are relatively unskilled workers. These people THE LIGHTS IN THE ... dramaticallynegative.In the UnitedStates,twothirdsofworkers and thereforeconsumers—donothaveacollegedegree.Whileeffortstoimproveeducation and trainingarelaudable, the realityisthatthisisnotlikelytooffset the impactofgeo-metricallyaccelerating technology. Infact,Ithinkthat the THE LIGHTS IN THE TUNNEL ... Amazonhavebeenheavilyimpactedbyboth technologyand globa-lization.Theyoftensurvivebystringingtwoorthreeparttimejobstogetherorworkinlowwagejobswithfewben-efits. The obvioussolutionisforustofindawaytoofferthesepeopleadditionaltraining—sotheycanhopoverto the goodsideof the fence.Ithinkthat the problemwiththisscenarioisthat the fenceisgoingtomove, and itmaymoveveryrapidly. The goodsideof the fenceisgoingtocontract, and increasingnum-bersofwell-educatedworkersaregoingtofindthemselvessuddenlyon the toxicside.AsIpointedoutinChapter2,we...
... acentrallyplanned economy, and perhaps most chillingly, the overthrow of govern-ments and a“dictatorshipof the proletariat.”In the wakeof the collapse of communism, these ideas ... Marx The centralthesisofthisbookisthat,as technology acce-lerates, machine automationmay ultimately penetrate the economy to the extent thatwages no longer provide the bulkofconsumerswithadequatediscretionaryincome and confidencein the future.Ifthisissueisnotaddressed, the resultwillbeadownwardeconomicspiral.Itmustbeacknowledgedthatthisideaisquitesimilarto the predictionsthatweremadebyKarlMarxin the midtolate1800s.Marxpredictedthatcapitalismwouldsufferfrom ... Amazonmanjudge. The otherparticipantsareanotherperson and amachine—bothofwhomattempttoconvince the judgethattheyarehumanbyconductinganormalconversation.If the judgecan’ttellwhichparticipantiswhich,then the machineissaidtohavepassed the TuringTest. The TuringTestisperhaps the mostwell-known and acceptedmethodformeasuringtruemachineintelligence.Inpractice, the ruleswouldneedtobefurtherrefined, and it...
... securitieswerethensoldtobanks and financialinstitutionsallover the world,with the understandingthattheywereverylowriskinvestments.When the subprimeborrowersstarteddefaulting, the valueof the mortgage-backed securitiesplunged, andthe derivativesdidnotworkasexpected.Inmanycasesitwasdifficultorimpossibletocalculatetheirvalue.Inaddition,financialinstitutionshadengagedinmanyothercomplexinterrelationships ... madeevenmorechallengingby the factthat the objectscouldbeinmanypossibleorientationsorconfigurations.Consider the simplecaseofapairofsunglassessittingonatable. The sunglassesmightbeclosedwith the lensesfacingdown,orwith the lensesup.Orperhaps the glassesareopen with the lenses oriented vertically. Or maybe one side of the glassesisopen andthe other closed. And, ofcourse, the glassescouldberotatedinanydirection. And perhapstheyare ... hasquicklyattracted the noticeof the Securities and ExchangeCommission and mayresultinnewregulation.Astheseexamplesshow,wecanexpectthat the rateofchange andthe volatilityofnearlyeverythingarounduswill...
... food—all of these and countlessthousandsofotherstructures and chemicalsthatcompriseourbodies and make usfunctionareproteins. And theyareallconstructedthroughnanotechnology.Itislikelythat the coming“nanotech”revolutionwillbegin ... inChapter1.Hismainpointisthat,asadvancing technology increases productivity, prices will fall, demand will in-crease, andtheeconomy will therefore produce moregoods and services.Inotherwords, the samenumberofworkerswillbeemployedbuttheywillproducemore.32 The ... collating and faxing in-formation. The intellectualportionof the job—eitherap-provingordenying the loan—isprobablyalreadyessential-lyhandledbyacomputer.Throughout the economy, there*Formoreonrobotics and itspotentialimpactonemployment and on...