Kinh ti tdng trudng vu0 muc tieu de ra. Vugt qua thien tai ndng ne, nong nghiip vdn dugc mua. San xuat liia tdng ca dien tich, nang suit vd san lugng.. Nhd san xuat luang thuc dat khd[r]
(1)NGHIEN CL/U LY LUAN VA THaC TIEN
T6NG QVAN KINH T^ - XA H I
\ltT NAM NAM 2010
PGS, TS NGUYfiN SINH CUC
Tmh hinh kinh te - xa hdi nudc ta nam 2010 dien bdi canh khd khdn nhieu han thuan lgi O nudc, thien tai lien tiep xay tren dien rdng lai keo dai Han han ndng dau ndm, ndng ndng gay gdt miia he va lii lut lieh sir cac thang 9, 10 va 11 da gay thiet hai rat nang ne cho 12 tinh mien Trung, anh hudng ldn den san xuat va ddi sdng cua nhan dan O ngoai nudc, gia ca nhieu mat hang leo thang, thi trudng dien bien phiic tap da tac dgng tieu eye din tinh hinh kinh tl - xa hgi Vift Nam Nhan thiic diy dii bdi canh dd, tir dau nam Dang, Quoc hdi va Chinh phii da tap trung lanh dao, chi dao cac ngdnh, cac cap, cac dja phuang thyc hien nhieu giai phap, huy dgng cac ngudn luc, tan dung kip thdi va tdi da co hdi, khde phuc khd khdn, vugt qua thach thiic, thiic day san xuit, kinh doanh, bao dam an sinh xa hgi Do dd tinh hinh kinh tl - xa hdi ca nudc nam 2010 van phat triln tuong doi dn dinh, mac dii han che bat cap van cdn nhieu
L Nhirng tun chu yeu
Trong 21 chi tieu kinh tl - xa hdi theo Nghi quyit ciia Qudc hdi de dau nam cd
^** long cue Thong ke
15 chi tieu dat va vugt, dd cd nhieu chi tieu chii yeu
Ve kinh te
Kinh ti tdng trudng vu0 muc tieu de
Tdng san pham nudc (GDP) nam 2010 tdng 6,78% Day la miic tang kha cao so vdi miic tdng 5,32% ciia ndm 2009 va vugt muc tieu ke hoach de dau nam (6,5%) Trong mirc tang trudng chung ciia toan nin kinh te nam nay, khu vyc ndng, lam nghifp va thuy san tdng 2,78%, khu vyc cdng nghiep va xay dung tang 7,7%, khu vuc dich vu tdng 7,52%
Vugt qua thien tai ndng ne, nong nghiip vdn dugc mua Gia tri san xuat
ndng, lam nghiep va thuy san tang 4,6% so vdi nam trudc, dd, ndng nghiep tang
4,4%; lam nghiep tdng 4,1% va thuy san
tang 5,3%) San lugng luong thuc cd hat dat 44,6 trieu tin, tang 1,27 trieu tin (2,9%) so nam 2009, binh quan dau ngudi dat 513,7 kg, tdng 10 kg so nam 2009 va la muc cao nhit tir trudc din San xuat liia tdng ca dien tich, nang suit vd san lugng Dien tich Ilia ca ndm 2010 dat 7518,5 nghin ha, tang 81,6 nghin so vdi nam 2009; ndng suit dat 53 ta/ha, tang 0,6 ta/ha; san lugng dat
(2)39,9 tri?u tin, tang 901 nghin tin Nhd san xuat luang thuc dat khd nen san lugng gao xuit khiu ca nam dat tren 6,7 trieu tin, cao nhat tir trudc din San xuit ngd phat trien toan dien Dien tich gieo trdng tang 1,4% so vdi nam 2009, nang suit dat 41 ta/ha, tang 2% va san lugng dat 4,6 trieu tin, tang nghin tin (1,2%)) San xuit rau mau cay cdng nghiep, cay an qua deu tang trudng cao han nam 2009 Chan nudi trau, bd va gia cam tiromg ddi dn dinh khdng bi anh hudng nhieu cua dich benh Tinh din 1-10-2010, dan trau ca nudc cd 2,9 trieu con, tang 2,0%; dan bd 5,9 trieu con; dan gia cam 301 trieu con, tang 7,5%) so
1-10-2009 San lugng thit trau, bd hoi xuit ehudng tang 4% va san lugng thit gia cam tang tren 12%) Nhd dd an ninh luang thuc qudc gia dugc dam bao, khdng xay sdt gia ve luang thuc, thuc pham, ke ca nhirng viing bi mua lii lieh sir d mien Trung
San xuat lam nghiep gdp khd khan khd han dau ndm lam anh hudng den tiin trdng rimg, nhung nhd chinh sdch hd trg kip thdi cua Nhd nudc nen van phdt trien, tdng trudng kha Di?n tfch rimg trdng tap trung dat 252 nghin ha, tdng 3,9%) so vdi nam trudc; dien tich rimg dugc khoanh nudi tai sinh tang 4,9%); difn tich rung dugc chdm sdc tdng 5,1%); san lugng go khai thdc dat 4,0 trieu m^, tang 6,1%)
San xuit thuy san tang trudng kha San lugng thuy san nam 2010 dat 5,1 tri?u tin, tang 5,3%o so vdi 2009, dd san lugng thiiy san nudi trdng dat 2, 706 trieu tin, tang 4,5%) Net mdi ciia nam 2010 la cac dia phuang tiip tuc thuc hien chii truang chuyin ddi va md rdng dien tich nudi trdng thuy san theo hudmg da canh, da ket hgp, nhdm nang cao hieu qua kinh tl va dam bao mdi trudng sinh thai ben viing
Khai thdc thuy san dat ket qua kha San lugng nam 2010 dat 42 trieu tin, tang 6,2% so vdi nam trudc, dd khai thdc bien tang 4,9%)
Sdn xudt eong nghiip hoi phue khd nhanh Gia tri san xuat cdng nghiep tang
14%o so vdi nam 2009, bao gdm khu vuc kinh te nha nudc tang 7,4%); kinh te ngodi nha nudc tang 14,7%); khu vuc cd vdn dau tu nudc ngoai tang 17,5%) Co cau san xuat cdng nghiep da cd budc chuyen dich tich cue: ty trgng cdng nghiep che bien va che tao tang len, cdng nghiep khai thdc giam so vdi cac nam trudc
Cdng nghiep che bien, che tao nam 2010 chiem ty trgng ldn nhat (89,4%)) ve gia tri san xuat, dat tdc tdng 14,7% so vdi ndm 2009 Day ciing la nganh cd tdc hdi phuc nhanh nhat nam 2010 sau giai doan khung hoang Nhieu san pham chii yeu cua nganh cdng nghiep che bien, che tao cd tdc tdng cao hem miic tdng chung cua toan nganh la: hda ldng tdng
121,2%o; sira bgt: 26,8%o; giay thi thao: 19,5%; kinh thuy tinh: 22,8%; bia: 21,6%; xe tai: 21,1%); son hda hgc: 20,5%); quin ngudi ldn: 20,2%; tu lanh, tu da: 19,9%); xi mang: 16,8%) va xe may tang 16,4%) Chi sd tieu thu cua nganh cdng nghiep chl biin, che tao tdng 10,7%) so vdi nam 2009, dd mgt s6 nganh san xuat cd chi sd tieu thy cao la: udng khdng con; gach, ngdi va gdm, sii khdng chiu liia; cdc san phim ba, sira; cac san pham khac bdng kim loai; bia; xi mang; sdn xuit cac san pham khac bdng plastic; san xuit giay, dep Nganh san xuit, phan phdi dien, ga, nudc mac dii chi chiim 5,9%) tdng gia tri nhung cd tdc tang cao so vdi 2009 vdi 15,3%
Hogt dgng thuang mgi khd soi dgng
Tdng miic ban le hang hod va doanh thu
(3)dich vu tieu diing nam 2010 tdng 25,4% so vdi nam 2009, niu loai tru yiu td gid thi tang 14,7%
Xudt khau vugt ke hogch di ra: Kim ngach xuat khau ca nam udc dat 71,6 ty USD, tdng 25,5%o, gap han lan so vdi ke hoach (6%) Khu vuc kinh te nudc tang 22,7%; khu vuc cd vdn dau tu nudc ngoai (gdm cd dau thd) tdng 27,8%) so ndm 2009 Trong nam 2010, cd 18 mat hang chii yeu dat kim ngach xuat khau tren ty USD vd tdng trudng khd: hang det may tdng 23,2%); giay dep: 24,9%); thiiy san: 16,5%); gao: 20,6%o; dien tir may tinh: 28,8%; gd vd san pham gd: 31,2%; may mdc, thiet bi, dung cu phu tiing: 48,4% va cao su tang 74,6%) Co cau kim ngach hang hda xuat khau cd sy thay ddi d mdt sd nhdm hang so vdi ciing ky ndm trudc Ty trgng nhdm hang cdng nghiep nhe vd tieu thu cdng nghiep tdng tir 40,6%o ndm 2009 len 43%) ndm 2010; nhdm hang ndng, lam san giam tu 16,7%o xudng 15,8%; nhdm hang thuy san giam tir 7,3% xudng 6,7%; vdng vd cdc san pham vang giam tir 6,4% xudng 5,4%; nhdm hang cdng nghiep ndng va khodng san khdng bien ddng nhieu, tir 29% len 29,1%
Hoa Ky van la thi trudng xuat khau ldn nhit cua Viet Nam vdi kim ngach nam 2010 tdng 25,7%, EU tang 17,5%, ASEAN tang 19,7%, Nhat Ban tdng 24,4%), Trung Qudc tdng 46,8%), Han Qudc tdng 31,5%
Nhap khiu tang cao, kim ngach dat 84 ty USD, tdng 20,1%) so vdi nam trudc, bao gdm: khu vuc kinh t l nudc tdng 8,3%, khu vuc cd vdn diu tu nudc ngoai tdng 39,9%o Nhung mat hang chu yiu phye vy cho sdn xuit van giir miic tdng cao nhu: may mdc thiit bi, dung cy phu tiing, sat thep, vai, di?n tir may tinh va linh kien
chat deo, go va nguyen lieu go, nguyen phu lieu det may, giay dep, thiic an gia siic, san pham hod chat, san pham khac tir diu md, cao su, sira va san phim tir siia, kim loai thudng khac, phuang tien van tai khac va phu tiing Ilia my
Co cau cac nhdm hang hda nhap khau cd sy thay ddi so vdi nam 2009 Nhdm hang vat pham tieu diing giam tir 9,3% xudng 8,4%); nhdm tu lieu san xuat tang tir 90,5% len 91,1%), dd may mdc, thiet bi, phuang tien van tai va dung cu, phu tiing gidm tir 30% xudng 29,5%, nguyen nhien vat lieu tdng tir 60,5% len 61,5%; nhdm vdng vd cac san pham vang tang tir 0,2% len 0,6% Thi trudng nhap khau chii yeu nam 2010 tir Trung Qudc tang 29%; ASEAN tang 27,7%; Han Qudc tang 40,3%; Nhat Ban tang 23,2%; EU tang
17,3% va tir Dai Loan tang 10,4%
Du lieh khdi sdc: Khach qudc te den nudc ta nam 2010 dat hom trieu lugt ngudi, tang 38,5% so vdi nam 2009, dd khdch den du ljch, nghi dudng tang 43,3%; din vi cdng viec tang 39,8%; tham than nhan tdng 2% Trong nam nay, hau hit khach tir cac qudc gia va viing lanh thd din Viet Nam deu cd xu hudng tang manh so vdi cimg ky nam 2009: khach den tir Trung Qudc tdng 89,2%; Han Qudc tang 29,4%; Hoa Ky tang 2,4%; Nhat Ban tang 18,7%; Dai Loan tdng 20,7%; Oxtraylia tdng 27,9%; Campuchia tang 92,2%; Thai Lan tang 39,5%; Phap tdng 12%; Malaixia tdng 23,1%)
Tinh hinh tdi chinh ldnh mgnh: Tdng thu ngan sach nha nudc nam 2010 dat ket qua khd cao, vugt dy toan 58 nghin ty ddng, tdng 16,7%o so vdi nam 2009 Cac khoan thu chii yiu diu dat va vugt du toan, dd
(4)cdc khoan thu ndi dia, thu tir dau thd, thu can ddi ngan sach tir boat ddng xuat nhap khau deu tang kha Tdng chi ngan sach nha nudc ca nam udc dat du toan nam Cac khoan chi phat trien su nghiep kinh te - xa hgi, qudc phdng, an ninh, quan ly nha nudc Dang, doan the, chi tra ng va vien trg deu dat ke hoach Bdi chi ngan sach nha nudc ca nam bang 6%), thap hom ke hoach de la 6,2%, mac dii chi dot xuat hd trg cac viing thien tai, dich benh, han han, nhat la cac tinh bi lii lut lieh sir mien Trung tang cao
Ve xd hoi
An sinh xd hgi dam bao: Ty le hd ngheo
giam tir 12,3%) nam 2009 xudng cdn 10,6%) Ty le hd ngheo khu vuc ndng thdn giam cdn 12% 62 huyen ngheo nhat da co ban xoa nha dot nat cho hd ngheo Van de lao ddng, viec lam dugc Nha nudc quan tam, dau tu thoa dang theo nhieu chuang trinh, du an nudc va qudc te va dat ket qua kha Tao viec lam mdi cho 1,6 trieu lao ddng, dat muc tieu de Su nghiep van hod, giao due, khoa hgc - cdng nghe tiep tuc phdt trien toan dien, ca ve lugng va chat Cdng tac y te, cham sdc siic khoe cdng ddng dat ket qua kha Trong nam khdng xay cac dich ldm Viec td chiic cdng Dai le ky niem 1000 nam Thang Long - Ha Ndi, Hdi nghi cap cao ASEAN 16, Hdi nghi Dai hdi ddng Lien Nghi vien cac nudc ASEAN lan thii 31 (AIPA31) , qua dd da gidi thieu dugc nhilu hinh anh dep vl dat nudc, ngudi, lam cho ban be qudc te hieu hom ve dat nudc, ngudi Viet Nam, vi the quan he qudc tl dugc tang cudng
Nhdm giir dn dinh va gdp phan nang cao ddi sdng nhan dan, thuc hien muc tieu bao dam an sinh xa hdi, Chinh phii da chi dao
cdc cap, cac nganh trien khai ddng bd nhieu giai phap, dd chii trgng nang cao hieu qua cac chuang trinh hd trg cho ndng dan, hd ngheo, nhat la cac viing bi thien tai, lu lut ldm d mien Trung de khac phuc hau qua, dn dinh san xuat va ddi sdng, tao viec lam va tdng thu nhap, khdng de ngudi dan ndo bi thieu ddi, bi ret, khdng cd ehd d Tir dau nam, cac cap, cdc nganh va dia phuang da hd trg cac hd thieu ddi 36,4 nghin tin luomg thuc vd gan 12 ty ddng Cac doi tugng thudc dien ciiu trg dugc hudng chinh sach trg giiip thudng xuyen dudi nhieu hinh thiic nhu: tang qua, hd trg xay dung va sira chiia nha d, cap the bao hiem mien phi, hd trg hgc tap, tao viec lam va hoa nhap cdng ddng, v.v Dac biet chuang trinh tin dung ddi vdi hgc sinh, sinh vien tiep tuc dugc trien khai hieu qua, gdp phan hd trg cac gia dinh ngheo, gia dinh khd khan cd em dang theo hgc tai cac trudng Tinh den cudi nam, da cd 1,9 trieu hgc sinh, sinh vien dugc vay vdn vdi tdng du ng la 23,7 nghin ty ddng, dd 786,7 nghin sinh vien dai hgc dugc vay vdi du ng 10,4 nghin ty ddng; 584,2 nghin sinh vien cao ding dugc vay vdi du ng gin 7,4 nghin ty ddng
D I ho trg ddng bao viing bi thien tai lu lut, vdi tinh thin la lanh diim la rach, ddng bao ca nudc, cac doanh nghiep thugc moi phan kinh tl da td chiic quyen gdp img hd ddng bao mien Trung hang tram ty ddng va cac dd diing thiit yiu khac Chinh phu da hd trg tir ngan sach 770 ty ddng, 17,5 nghin tin gao Nhd dd va sau lu lut Iich sir, khdng mgt ngudi dan nao bi thiiu ddi, khdng virng nao xay dich benh, tinh hinh xa hdi, an ninh dam bao Tinh hinh san xuat va ddi sdng ciia dan cu cac viing bi thien tai cdn nhilu khd khan nhung budc dau da timg budc dn dinh
(5)Cdng tac dao tao nghe dugc trien khai bang cdc chuang trinh dy an nudc va qudc te, da dat dugc ket qua budc dau khd hom nam 2009 Ty trgng lao dgng tir 15 tudi trd len da qua dao tao chuyen mdn ky thuat la 14,6%, dd khu vyc thi la 30%; khu vyc ndng thdn 8,6% Ty le thieu viec lam ciia lao ddng tudi la 4,3 l%o, dd khu vuc thi la
1,95%; khu vuc ndng thdn la 5,24%; ty le that nghiep ciia lao ddng mdi la 2,88%o, dd khu vyc thi la 4,43%; khu vuc ndng thdn la 2,27%
2 Nhirng han che va bat cap
Vi kinh te: kinh te tang trudng nhanh nhung chua vung, chua deu, hieu qua dau tu thap vd tinh dn djnh khdng cao Chat lugng san pham hang hod vd dich vu cdn kem sire canh tranh, co cau kinh te chuyen djeh cham
Nam 2010, vdn dau tu xa hdi chiem tdi 42% GDP He sd ICOR d miic Uen 8,4, cao hon nam 2009 vd cdc nam trudc (nam 2007: 5,2; nam 2008: 6,66; nam 2009: 8) Co ciu kinh te chuyen dich cham vd khdng dat muc tieu de cho 2010 Thuc te nam 2010, ty khu vuc GDP: ndng nghiep (nghTa rgng) 21,0%; cdng nghiep, xay dung 40,9% va dich vu 38,1% - thip xa so vdi muc tieu Chiin luge phdt triin kinh ti - xd hgi 10 ndm (2001-2010) Dai hgi IX cua Dang de (ndng nghiep: 16 - 17%, cdng nghiep: 40 - 41%> va dich vu 42 - 43% GDP) Gia cd tang cao, chi sd gid tieu diing (CPI) ca ndm 2010 tdng gin 11,75% so vdi nam 2009, khdng dat kl hoach dl (7%) va cao han ndm 2009 (6,52%o) Cac nhdm hang tang cao nhit la luomg thyc: 17,9%, thyc phim: 16,7%, nhd d va vat lieu xay dyng: 15,7%, gido due: 19,4%), an udng ngoai gia
dinh tdng 16,18% Vdi toe tang gia nay, Viet Nam la nudc cd tdc tang gia cao nhat so vdi cac nudc khu vuc (Trung Qudc tang 4,8%, Malaixia: 4%, Indonexia: dudi 5%), Philippin tang 5,1%, Thai Lan: 4%) Muc tieu giam lam phat da khdng thyc hien dugc, tac ddng tieu cue den san xuat va ddi sdng dan cu, lam giam y nghia ciia tang trudng kinh tl Gia vang tang 30%, gia USD tang 9,7%, la nhung miic tang cao nliat cac nam gan day Viec CPI ciia thang cudi nam lien tiep lap ky luc tang cao nhat so vdi cac thang ciing ky ciia 10 nam lai day la bai hgc thyc tien can nit kinh nghiem quan ly thi trudng
Thi trudng dang bi mat can ddi cung cau ngoai te cue bd, nguyen nhan la sy meo md chinh sach tien te, lai suat Ty gia tang vgt anh hudng tdi gia vang, hang hda nhap khau ciing tang len Chi so chirng klioan Viet Nam 2010 da giam hon 60% tir imic ky luc hem 170 diim hdi thang 3-2007
Nhap sieu cao: nam 2010, ty le nhap sieu 17,4%, vl sd tuyet ddi len tdi 12,4 ty USD, la mirc kha cao (nam 2009 la 12,8 ty USD)
Ng cdng tang: theo bao cao ciia Chinh phu tai ky hgp thir Qudc hgi khoa XII, ng cdng nam 2010 len tdi 52,6% GDP, ng nudc ngoai chiim 38,8% GDP Ng cdng tang dan den ty le bdi chi ngan sach cao va Chinh phii phai vay ng de bii dap Sy lo ngai ve ng cdng tham chi cdn ldn han so du bdo cho nam 2011 se vugt tren 57%
Vi xd hoi: van cdn nhieu han che va bat cap, chu yeu la:
Thu nhap va ddi sdng cua dan cu cdn thip, khoang each giau ngheo gitra thi va ndng thdn cd chieu hudng gia tang Tinh dn dinh ciia cac ket qua da dat dugc
(6)ve cac chi tieu xa hdi chua cao Ddi sdng ciia dan cu nhiing viing bi thien tai lii lut ldn d mien Trung, Tay Nguyen rit khd khan Tinh trang tdi ngheo van xay va chua cd kha ndng khic phuc NIU theo chuan ngheo mdi (thu nhap dudi 390 nghin ddng/thang (d dd thi), dudi 300 nghin ddng/thang (d ndng thdn), thi nam 2010 ty le hd ngheo nudc ta cdn khoang 16 - 17%) Lao ddng thieu viec lam gia tdng, nhat la khu vuc ndng thdn vd hd ndng dan mat dit ndng nghiep cdng nghiep hoa va dd thi hod, keo theo su bat dn xa hdi, cac loai te nan gia tang Co sd tang va nha cira bi thiet hai lii lut rat ndng ne nhung kha ndng hdi phuc rat cham
Mdi trudng sinh thai tiep tuc bi d nhiem nang nhung cham dugc khac phuc Hau het cac chi tieu ve mdi trudmg, khac phuc d nhiem nam 2010 deu khdng dat ke hoach An toan ve sinh thuc pham chua cd chuyen bien dang ke, xuat hien nhieu thyc pham, thudc kich thich sir dung bao quan thuc pham khdng rd ngudn gdc, gay ddc hai Quyen lgi ngudi tieu diing khdng dugc bao ve Chat lugng giao due thap; cdng tac quan ly cac trudng dai hgc, cao ddng, trung hgc chua tdt Tinh trang bao luc nha trudmg, gia dinh, ddi vdi tre em, xa hdi dien bien phire tap nhung cham khac phuc
Un tac giao thdng tai cac dd thi ldm rat gay gat Tai nan giao thdng tdng cao so nam 2009 Y thiic ngudi dan ve thyc hien luat phdp, cac quy tdc irng xir cdng ddng, ve sinh cdng cdng dang bao ddng Dieu dd the hien rd cac hoat ddng le hgi, kl ca ll hdi 1000 nam Thang Long -Ha Ngi Hoat ddng the thao chua cd chuyen biin dang ke, tham chi thut liii so vdi cac
nam trudc, rd nhat la ASIAD 16 Trong y te, gia thudc tang cao, keo dai nhung chua cd phuang an xir ly, gay biic xiic cho ngudi dan Tinh trang qua tai tai cac benh vien cdng lap van chua dugc khac phuc
3 Danh gia tong quat
Nhirng ket qua va tuu dat dugc nam 2010 ve kinh te - xa hdi la to ldn va CO ban Hau het cac chi tieu de deu dat va vugt ke hoach Nhirng khdi sac da ddng gdp tfch eye vao ket qua thuc hien chien luge 10 ndm 2001-2010 vdi mirc tang trudmg GDP tdng 6,7%)/nam va GDP binh quan dau ngudi nam 2010 dat 1.160 USD, giam ty le hd ngheo binh quan 2%)/nam, an sinh xa hdi dugc cai thien, cdc muc tieu Thien nien ky deu dat va vugt ke hoach, an ninh chinh tri, qudc phdng dugc giii virng, uy tin Viet Nam tren trudng qudc te tang len Dd la nhirng tuu rat dang ghi nhan va tu hao Thuc te dd ehimg minh dnh diing dan cua dudng ldi ddi mdi todn dien va hdi nhap ciia Dang va sir dieu hanh ciia Chinh phu nam 2010 dugc thi gidi cdng nhan, danh gid cao
Ben canh nhiing ket qua da dat dugc, kinh te - xa hdi ndm qua van cdn nhilu han che va bat cap Tuy nhien, boi canh cd nhieu khd khan, thach thiic ciia nin kinh te vira phuc hdi sau khiing hoang, diim xuit phat thip, nhirng han chl, bit cap dd la khd tranh khdi, cd tinh tam thdi, khdng CO ban vd khdng anh hudng ldn din nhirng kit qua vd khdi sic cua vl kinh tl - xa hdi ciia ca nudc Kit qua dat dugc vl tang trudng kinh tl va an sinh xa hdi nam 2010 la nhiing tiin dl, diiu kien vat chit va dgng lyc tinh than rat quan trgng lam tang thi va lyc ciia dat nudc budc vao nam 2011 vdi niem tin va trien vgng tdt dep hon