Nghiên cứu phương pháp đánh giá hiệu quả kinh tế các dự án đầu tư xây dựng công trình thủy lợi ở đồng bằng sông cửu long áp dụng cho dự án kênh phú đức thuộc huyện tam nông tỉnh đồng tháp

Declaration I hereby certify the work which is being presented in this thesis entitled “Modeling storm surge for the South Central Coast of Vietnam” is an authentic record of my own work carried out under supervision of Dr Vu Thi Thu Thuy and Co-supervisor Ass Prof PhD Nghiem Tien Lam The master embodied in this thesis has not been submitted by me for the award of any other degree or diploma Date: Aug 15, 2016 Author Ninh Duy Quỳnh i Acknowledgements I would like to express my sincere gratitude to my advisor Dr Vu Thi Thu Thuy and Co-supervisor A/Prof PhD Nghiem Tien Lam for their guidance, suggestion and inspiration I would like to express my sincere thanks to Thuy Loi University, professors and lectures at Department of Marine and Coastal Engineering of Thuy Loi University and professors and lecturers of the Niche programmer for supporting me throughout my study progress Finally, I would like to express my special appreciation to my friends and colleagues for their support, encourage and advices Thank you so much! ii CONTENTS LIST OF FIGUES iv LIST OF TABLES ix INTRODUCTION 1 Problem identification and the necessity of the study Literature review 2.1 International researches on storm surge 2.2 Past studies on storm surges in Vietnam Research objectives The scope of research Approach and methodology .8 Thesis structure CHAPTER 1: PHYSICAL SETTINGS .9 1.1 Geographic conditions 1.2 Topographic conditions .9 1.3 Climatic conditions 11 1.4 Observation stations and hydro-logic conditions 11 1.4.1 Observation stations 11 1.4.2 Hydrologic conditions 13 1.5 Oceanographic conditions 14 1.6 Historical disasters of typhoons and storm surges 15 1.7 Conclusions .18 CHAPTER 2: MODELLING OF NON-TYPHOON CONDITION 20 2.1 Introduction .20 2.1.1 Introduction model MIKE 21 20 2.1.2 Module MIKE 21 Flow Model (MIKE 21 FM) 21 2.2 Model setup and boundary conditions 25 2.2.1 Analysis data and choose scope of model 25 2.2.2 Building mesh model two-way .26 2.2 Model calibration 32 2.2.1 Analysis and choice of time and calibration data model .32 2.2.2 The parameters and model calibration process 34 2.2.3 Results of model calibration 34 2.2.4 Conclusion: 36 iii 2.3 Model verification 36 2.3.1 The parameter for verification 36 2.4.2 The result of verification model 37 2.4 Conclusions 38 CHAPTER 3: MODELING OF STORM SURGE 39 3.1 Introduction 39 3.2 Modeling of typhoon 40 3.2.1 Theoretical basis of establishing patterns of wind and barometric pressure in the storm 40 3.2.2 Wind field model in the storm 40 3.2.3 Modelling of pressure in storm 45 3.3 Model setup and boundary conditions 46 3.3.1 Analysing data 46 3.3.2 Set of hydraulic parameters 52 3.4 Model calibration 53 3.4.1 Analyze and choose the time and calibration data model 53 3.4.2 Parameters and model calibration process 53 3.4.3 Conclusion 54 3.5 Model verification 54 3.5.1 Set up model verification 54 3.5.2 The result of verification 56 3.6 Conclusions 56 CHAPTER 4: SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS MODEL 57 4.1 Role of pressure center in the storm 57 4.1.1 Set of hydraulic parameters 57 4.1.2 Results model 59 4.1.3 Results analysis 62 4.2 Role of parameters model (B) 62 4.2.1 Set of hydraulic parameters 62 4.2.2 Results model 63 4.2.3 Results analysis 64 4.3 Role of maximum wind speed in the storm 64 4.3.1 Set of hydraulic parameters 64 4.3.2 Results analysis 66 iv 4.4 Role of radius maximum in the storm 66 4.4.1 Set of hydraulic parameters 66 4.4.2 Results model: 67 4.4.3 Results analysis 68 4.5 Role of wind friction (Cd) 68 4.6 Role of trajectory of storm 71 4.6.1 Set of hydraulic parameters 71 4.6.2 Results model: 73 4.6.3 Results analysis 75 CHAPTER 5: CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 76 5.1 Conclusions .76 5.2 Recommendations 78 REFERENCES 79 APPENDIXES v LIST OF FIGUES Figure 1: Administrative Map of South Central Coast Figure Observation stations in south central coast 12 Figure 3: Cau Da station – Khanh Hoa province 12 Figure 4: The monitoring sites of Vung Tau station 13 Figure 5: The significant wave height patterns in the East Sea 14 Figure 1: Introduction MIKE 21 20 Figure 2: Scope of model 26 Figure 3: Topography of study area 27 Figure Simulated area 28 Figure Building topography data 29 Figure Model boundary conditions 31 Figure 7: Diagram of calibration process 32 Figure Calibration station 33 Figure Comparison of water level at Cau Da observation station 35 Figure 10 Comparison of water level at Vung Tau observation station 35 Figure 11 Comparison diagram in Cau Da station 37 Figure 12 Comparison diagram in Vung Tau station 37 Figure Storm surge 41 Figure 2: Typhoon #21 in 2007 47 Figure 3: Typhoon #23 in 2009 47 Figure 4: Wind field model 48 Figure 5: Data provided for the wind field model 49 Figure 6: Wind speed in the typhoon in 2007 51 vi Figure 7: Wind pressure in the typhoon in 2007 51 Figure 8: Comparison diagram in Cau Da station 11/2007 53 Figure 10: The parameter of storm #23 in 2009 54 Figure 11: Wind speed in the typhoon in 2009 55 Figure 12: Wind pressure in the typhoon in 2009 55 Figure 13: Comparison diagram in Cau Da station in 2009 .56 Figure The relationship between Vmax and ΔP 58 Figure The positions extract 60 Figure Storm surge in Quy Nhon – Binh Dinh .61 Figure 4 Storm surge in Nha Trang – Khanh Hoa .61 Figure Storm surge in Vung Ro – Phu Yen 62 Figure Storm surge in Quy Nhon – Binh Dinh .63 Figure Storm surge in Nha Trang – Khanh Hoa .63 Figure Storm surge in Vung Ro – Phu Yen 64 Figure Storm surge in Quy Nhơn – Binh Dinh .65 Figure 10 Storm surge in Nha Trang – Khanh Hoa 65 Figure 11 Storm surge in Vung Ro – Phu Yen 65 Figure 12 Storm surge in Quy Nhon – Binh Dinh .67 Figure 13 Storm surge in Nha Trang – Khanh Hoa 67 Figure 14 Storm surge in Vung Ro – Phu Yen 67 Figure 15 Storm surge in Quy Nhon – Binh Dinh .69 Figure 16 Storm surge in Nha Trang – Khanh Hoa 70 Figure 17 Storm surge in Vung Ro – Phu Yen 70 Figure 18 Typhoon #23 in 2009 71 Figure 19 The storm hits Binh Dinh province 72 vii Figure 20 The storm hits Nha Trang province 72 Figure 21 The storm hits Ninh Thuan province 72 Figure 22 Storm surge in Quy Nhon – Binh Dinh 73 Figure 23 Storm surge in Vinh Xuan Dai – Binh Dinh 73 Figure 24 Storm surge in Vung Ro – Phu Yen 73 Figure 25 Storm surge in Nha Trang – Khanh Hoa 74 Figure 26 Storm surge in Cam Ranh – Khanh Hoa 74 Figure 27 Storm surge in Mui Padaran – Ninh Thuan: 74 viii LIST OF TABLES Table 1 Statistics storm in Vietnam 15 Table Statistics storm in South Central Coast province from 1951 to 2010 17 Table Model boundary conditions 30 Table 2 the parameters effect to Nam Trung Bo model .31 Table Relevance of NASH coefficient 34 Table Results of model calibration 35 Table Results parameter of model after calibration 36 Table Wind speed according to the Beaufort wind scale 44 Table Parameters of wind field 48 Table 3: The data of Typhoon #21 in 2007 (grade 11) 49 Table 4: Set of hydraulic parameters 52 Table 5: The result of model calibration 53 Table 7: The result in observation station in Storm 56 Table The input parameters of the models 60 Table The coordinate of positions extract .62 ix 10/29/2007 9:59 10/29/2007 10:59 10/29/2007 11:59 10/29/2007 12:59 10/29/2007 13:59 10/29/2007 14:59 10/29/2007 15:59 10/29/2007 16:59 10/29/2007 17:59 10/29/2007 18:59 10/29/2007 19:59 10/29/2007 20:59 10/29/2007 21:59 10/29/2007 22:59 10/29/2007 23:59 10/30/2007 0:59 10/30/2007 1:59 10/30/2007 2:59 10/30/2007 3:59 10/30/2007 4:59 10/30/2007 5:59 10/30/2007 6:59 10/30/2007 7:59 10/30/2007 8:59 10/30/2007 9:59 10/30/2007 10:59 10/30/2007 11:59 10/30/2007 12:59 10/30/2007 13:59 10/30/2007 14:59 10/30/2007 15:59 10/30/2007 16:59 10/30/2007 17:59 10/30/2007 18:59 10/30/2007 19:59 10/30/2007 20:59 10/30/2007 21:59 10/30/2007 22:59 10/30/2007 23:59 10/31/2007 0:59 10/31/2007 1:59 10/31/2007 2:59 10/31/2007 3:59 10/31/2007 4:59 10/31/2007 5:59 10/31/2007 6:59 10/31/2007 7:59 0.14 0.2 0.29 0.44 0.6 0.71 0.81 0.84 0.76 0.62 0.36 0.07 -0.22 -0.48 -0.57 -0.72 -0.81 -0.82 -0.79 -0.69 -0.48 -0.3 -0.15 -0.05 0.05 0.15 0.23 0.36 0.52 0.67 0.77 0.85 0.8 0.72 0.55 0.28 0.04 -0.26 -0.48 -0.65 -0.74 -0.79 -0.79 -0.74 -0.67 -0.55 -0.38 0.20 0.31 0.45 0.60 0.74 0.82 0.83 0.75 0.56 0.30 0.00 -0.31 -0.58 -0.77 -0.87 -0.87 -0.80 -0.66 -0.50 -0.34 -0.21 -0.10 -0.01 0.07 0.15 0.26 0.39 0.54 0.68 0.79 0.85 0.83 0.72 0.52 0.25 -0.05 -0.33 -0.58 -0.76 -0.84 -0.85 -0.78 -0.66 -0.51 -0.37 -0.23 -0.12 -0.06 -0.11 -0.16 -0.16 -0.14 -0.11 -0.02 0.09 0.20 0.32 0.36 0.38 0.36 0.29 0.30 0.15 -0.01 -0.16 -0.29 -0.35 -0.27 -0.20 -0.14 -0.12 -0.10 -0.11 -0.16 -0.18 -0.16 -0.12 -0.08 0.02 0.08 0.20 0.30 0.33 0.37 0.32 0.28 0.19 0.11 -0.01 -0.13 -0.23 -0.30 -0.32 -0.26 95 1.15 0.97 0.77 0.50 0.29 0.25 0.40 0.66 0.92 1.10 1.07 0.87 0.41 -0.19 -0.85 -1.59 -2.17 -2.46 -2.35 -1.81 -1.11 -0.35 0.27 0.71 0.93 0.89 0.75 0.55 0.37 0.31 0.35 0.51 0.69 0.90 0.98 0.92 0.69 0.27 -0.33 -1.02 -1.61 -2.07 -2.24 -2.09 -1.67 -1.09 -0.47 1.30 1.11 0.72 0.28 -0.02 -0.09 0.09 0.48 0.93 1.27 1.34 1.06 0.50 -0.18 -0.84 -1.45 -1.96 -2.23 -2.12 -1.63 -0.95 -0.23 0.39 0.85 1.14 1.19 1.02 0.69 0.34 0.14 0.13 0.33 0.67 1.03 1.25 1.20 0.83 0.25 -0.38 -0.98 -1.52 -1.94 -2.12 -1.94 -1.45 -0.82 -0.18 -0.15 -0.14 0.05 0.22 0.31 0.34 0.31 0.18 -0.01 -0.17 -0.27 -0.19 -0.09 -0.01 -0.01 -0.14 -0.21 -0.23 -0.23 -0.18 -0.16 -0.12 -0.12 -0.14 -0.21 -0.30 -0.27 -0.14 0.03 0.17 0.22 0.18 0.02 -0.13 -0.27 -0.28 -0.14 0.02 0.05 -0.04 -0.09 -0.13 -0.12 -0.15 -0.22 -0.27 -0.29 10/31/2007 8:59 10/31/2007 9:59 10/31/2007 10:59 10/31/2007 11:59 10/31/2007 12:59 10/31/2007 13:59 10/31/2007 14:59 10/31/2007 15:59 10/31/2007 16:59 10/31/2007 17:59 10/31/2007 18:59 10/31/2007 19:59 10/31/2007 20:59 10/31/2007 21:59 10/31/2007 22:59 10/31/2007 23:59 11/1/2007 0:59 11/1/2007 1:59 11/1/2007 2:59 11/1/2007 3:59 11/1/2007 4:59 11/1/2007 5:59 11/1/2007 6:59 -0.22 -0.09 -0.01 0.11 0.21 0.33 0.47 0.61 0.68 0.71 0.66 0.58 0.41 0.2 -0.05 -0.28 -0.48 -0.58 -0.62 -0.64 -0.65 -0.66 -0.64 -0.01 0.08 0.19 0.30 0.44 0.57 0.69 0.78 0.81 0.76 0.64 0.44 0.20 -0.07 -0.33 -0.55 -0.70 -0.78 -0.79 -0.73 -0.62 -0.49 -0.35 -0.21 -0.17 -0.20 -0.19 -0.23 -0.24 -0.22 -0.17 -0.13 -0.05 0.02 0.14 0.21 0.27 0.28 0.27 0.22 0.20 0.17 0.09 -0.03 -0.17 -0.29 0.11 0.50 0.72 0.78 0.71 0.62 0.53 0.51 0.57 0.65 0.75 0.79 0.79 0.68 0.45 0.07 -0.43 -0.97 -1.45 -1.77 -1.89 -1.80 -1.33 0.36 0.78 1.03 1.08 0.95 0.69 0.43 0.28 0.29 0.44 0.70 0.97 1.09 0.98 0.61 0.07 -0.49 -1.01 -1.46 -1.79 -1.90 -1.71 -1.26 -0.25 -0.28 -0.31 -0.30 -0.24 -0.07 0.10 0.23 0.28 0.21 0.05 -0.18 -0.30 -0.30 -0.16 0.00 0.06 0.04 0.01 0.02 0.01 -0.09 -0.07 Appendixes 3: The result of calibration and verification storm surge model Cau Da station Vung Tau station Time Measured (m) Model (m) Difference (m) Time Measured (m) Model (m) Difference (m) 11/9/2007 10:00 -0.61 -0.35 -0.26 10/31/2009 0:00 0.209 0.00 0.21 11/9/2007 11:00 -0.57 -0.25 -0.32 10/31/2009 1:00 0.279 0.38 -0.10 11/9/2007 12:00 -0.4 -0.15 -0.25 10/31/2009 2:00 0.309 -0.05 0.36 11/9/2007 13:00 -0.21 -0.09 -0.12 10/31/2009 3:00 0.259 0.16 0.10 11/9/2007 14:00 -0.07 -0.05 -0.02 10/31/2009 4:00 0.139 -0.05 0.19 11/9/2007 15:00 0.01 -0.05 0.06 10/31/2009 5:00 -0.031 -0.02 -0.01 11/9/2007 16:00 0.09 -0.05 0.14 10/31/2009 6:00 -0.201 -0.14 -0.06 11/9/2007 17:00 0.15 -0.02 0.17 10/31/2009 7:00 -0.331 -0.20 -0.13 11/9/2007 18:00 0.23 0.02 0.21 10/31/2009 8:00 -0.461 -0.07 -0.39 11/9/2007 19:00 0.31 0.09 0.22 10/31/2009 9:00 -0.501 -0.14 -0.36 11/9/2007 20:00 0.42 0.20 0.22 10/31/2009 10:00 -0.451 0.07 -0.52 11/9/2007 21:00 0.55 0.34 0.21 10/31/2009 11:00 -0.341 0.09 -0.43 11/9/2007 22:00 0.64 0.46 0.18 10/31/2009 12:00 -0.191 0.28 -0.47 11/9/2007 23:00 0.68 0.56 0.12 10/31/2009 13:00 -0.24 0.25 -0.49 96 11/10/2007 0:00 0.67 0.59 0.08 10/31/2009 14:00 -0.1 0.35 -0.45 11/10/2007 1:00 0.59 0.56 0.03 10/31/2009 15:00 -0.12 0.23 -0.35 11/10/2007 2:00 0.45 0.47 -0.02 10/31/2009 16:00 -0.25 0.15 -0.40 11/10/2007 3:00 0.22 0.33 -0.11 10/31/2009 17:00 -0.38 0.01 -0.39 11/10/2007 4:00 -0.03 0.19 -0.22 10/31/2009 18:00 -0.65 -0.14 -0.51 11/10/2007 5:00 -0.11 0.09 -0.20 10/31/2009 19:00 -0.82 -0.24 -0.58 11/10/2007 6:00 -0.1 0.05 -0.15 10/31/2009 20:00 -0.56 -0.31 -0.25 11/10/2007 7:00 0.03 0.13 -0.10 10/31/2009 21:00 -0.36 -0.31 -0.05 11/10/2007 8:00 0.19 0.31 -0.12 10/31/2009 22:00 -0.2 -0.28 0.08 11/10/2007 9:00 0.4 0.55 -0.15 10/31/2009 23:00 -0.07 -0.18 0.11 11/10/2007 10:00 0.72 0.81 -0.09 11/1/2009 0:00 0.23 -0.09 0.32 11/10/2007 11:00 0.96 1.23 -0.27 11/1/2009 1:00 0.58 0.02 0.56 11/10/2007 12:00 1.32 1.51 -0.19 11/1/2009 2:00 0.73 0.08 0.65 11/10/2007 13:00 1.5 1.60 -0.10 11/1/2009 3:00 0.7 0.10 0.60 11/10/2007 14:00 1.47 1.38 0.09 11/1/2009 4:00 0.56 0.08 0.48 11/10/2007 15:00 1.6 1.15 0.45 11/1/2009 5:00 0.42 0.02 0.40 11/10/2007 16:00 1.54 0.85 0.69 11/1/2009 6:00 0.11 -0.03 0.14 11/10/2007 17:00 1.26 0.63 0.63 11/1/2009 7:00 -0.32 -0.06 -0.26 11/10/2007 18:00 0.64 0.53 0.11 11/1/2009 8:00 -0.55 -0.05 -0.50 11/10/2007 19:00 0.54 0.51 0.03 11/1/2009 9:00 -0.08 0.00 -0.08 11/10/2007 20:00 0.5 0.51 -0.01 11/1/2009 10:00 0.48 0.09 0.39 11/10/2007 21:00 0.48 0.58 -0.10 11/1/2009 11:00 0.59 0.20 0.39 11/10/2007 22:00 0.59 0.65 -0.06 11/1/2009 12:00 0.65 0.31 0.34 11/10/2007 23:00 0.65 0.71 -0.06 11/1/2009 13:00 0.68 0.38 0.30 11/11/2007 0:00 0.68 0.73 -0.05 11/1/2009 14:00 0.64 0.39 0.25 11/11/2007 1:00 0.64 0.67 -0.03 11/1/2009 15:00 0.52 0.33 0.19 11/11/2007 2:00 0.52 0.55 -0.03 11/1/2009 16:00 0.32 0.20 0.12 11/11/2007 3:00 0.32 0.34 -0.02 11/1/2009 17:00 0.08 0.02 0.06 11/11/2007 4:00 0.08 0.10 -0.02 11/1/2009 18:00 -0.18 -0.16 -0.02 11/11/2007 5:00 -0.18 -0.17 -0.01 11/1/2009 19:00 -0.4 -0.34 -0.06 11/11/2007 6:00 -0.4 -0.39 -0.01 11/1/2009 20:00 -0.52 -0.47 -0.05 11/11/2007 7:00 -0.52 -0.57 0.05 11/1/2009 21:00 -0.69 -0.54 -0.15 11/11/2007 8:00 -0.69 -0.66 -0.03 11/1/2009 22:00 -0.81 -0.54 -0.27 11/11/2007 9:00 -0.81 -0.68 -0.13 11/1/2009 23:00 -0.84 -0.48 -0.36 11/11/2007 10:00 -0.84 -0.62 -0.22 11/2/2009 0:00 -0.78 -0.39 -0.39 11/11/2007 11:00 -0.78 -0.50 -0.28 11/2/2009 1:00 -0.62 -0.30 -0.32 11/11/2007 12:00 -0.62 -0.37 -0.25 11/2/2009 2:00 -0.53 -0.23 -0.30 11/11/2007 13:00 -0.53 -0.24 -0.29 11/2/2009 3:00 -0.34 -0.23 -0.11 11/11/2007 14:00 -0.34 -0.14 -0.20 11/2/2009 4:00 -0.16 -0.31 0.15 97 11/11/2007 15:00 -0.16 -0.06 -0.10 11/2/2009 5:00 -0.05 -0.49 0.44 11/11/2007 16:00 -0.05 -0.02 -0.03 11/2/2009 6:00 0.03 -0.74 0.77 11/11/2007 17:00 0.03 0.02 0.01 11/2/2009 7:00 0.12 -0.91 1.03 11/11/2007 18:00 0.12 0.07 0.05 11/2/2009 8:00 0.21 -0.92 1.13 Appendixes 4: The result of change pressure central of storm Drovak formula Experiment formula Fujita formula Time Binh Dinh Khanh Hoa Phu Yen Binh Dinh Khanh Hoa Phu Yen Binh Dinh Khanh Hoa Phu Yen 11/1/2009 0:00 0.03 -0.09 -0.02 0.03 -0.09 -0.02 0.03 -0.09 -0.02 11/1/2009 1:00 0.06 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.02 0.04 11/1/2009 2:00 0.11 0.08 0.09 0.11 0.08 0.09 0.11 0.08 0.09 11/1/2009 3:00 0.13 0.10 0.09 0.13 0.10 0.09 0.13 0.10 0.09 11/1/2009 4:00 0.04 0.08 0.05 0.04 0.08 0.05 0.05 0.08 0.05 11/1/2009 5:00 0.01 0.02 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.00 11/1/2009 6:00 -0.03 -0.03 -0.04 -0.03 -0.03 -0.04 -0.03 -0.03 -0.04 11/1/2009 7:00 -0.08 -0.06 -0.07 -0.08 -0.06 -0.07 -0.07 -0.06 -0.06 11/1/2009 8:00 -0.02 -0.05 -0.04 -0.03 -0.05 -0.04 -0.02 -0.05 -0.04 11/1/2009 9:00 0.04 0.00 0.03 0.04 0.00 0.03 0.04 0.00 0.03 11/1/2009 10:00 0.13 0.09 0.13 0.13 0.09 0.13 0.13 0.09 0.13 11/1/2009 11:00 0.26 0.20 0.24 0.26 0.20 0.24 0.26 0.20 0.24 11/1/2009 12:00 0.34 0.31 0.33 0.34 0.31 0.33 0.34 0.31 0.33 11/1/2009 13:00 0.37 0.38 0.38 0.37 0.38 0.38 0.37 0.38 0.38 11/1/2009 14:00 0.36 0.39 0.37 0.36 0.40 0.37 0.36 0.39 0.37 11/1/2009 15:00 0.26 0.33 0.29 0.26 0.34 0.29 0.26 0.33 0.28 11/1/2009 16:00 0.11 0.20 0.14 0.11 0.21 0.14 0.11 0.20 0.14 11/1/2009 17:00 -0.06 0.02 -0.03 -0.06 0.03 -0.03 -0.07 0.01 -0.04 11/1/2009 18:00 -0.25 -0.16 -0.21 -0.25 -0.16 -0.21 -0.26 -0.18 -0.22 11/1/2009 19:00 -0.40 -0.34 -0.37 -0.39 -0.33 -0.36 -0.41 -0.36 -0.38 11/1/2009 20:00 -0.48 -0.47 -0.47 -0.48 -0.46 -0.46 -0.50 -0.50 -0.48 11/1/2009 21:00 -0.50 -0.54 -0.50 -0.50 -0.52 -0.49 -0.52 -0.57 -0.52 11/1/2009 22:00 -0.44 -0.54 -0.46 -0.43 -0.51 -0.45 -0.46 -0.58 -0.49 11/1/2009 23:00 -0.33 -0.48 -0.38 -0.32 -0.44 -0.36 -0.35 -0.54 -0.42 11/2/2009 0:00 -0.19 -0.39 -0.28 -0.18 -0.33 -0.24 -0.20 -0.48 -0.34 11/2/2009 1:00 -0.03 -0.30 -0.19 -0.03 -0.23 -0.14 -0.03 -0.43 -0.29 11/2/2009 2:00 0.12 -0.23 -0.13 0.10 -0.14 -0.06 0.15 -0.40 -0.26 11/2/2009 3:00 0.22 -0.23 -0.14 0.18 -0.10 -0.04 0.30 -0.46 -0.34 11/2/2009 4:00 0.33 -0.31 -0.21 0.25 -0.14 -0.07 0.46 -0.63 -0.48 98 11/2/2009 5:00 0.44 -0.49 -0.24 0.31 -0.25 -0.09 0.66 -0.93 -0.57 11/2/2009 6:00 0.56 -0.74 -0.03 0.38 -0.42 0.04 0.88 -1.35 -0.20 11/2/2009 7:00 0.75 -0.91 0.69 0.50 -0.52 0.47 1.18 -1.62 1.05 11/2/2009 8:00 0.89 -0.92 0.67 0.60 -0.54 0.46 1.36 -1.60 1.03 11/2/2009 9:00 0.95 -0.58 0.84 0.67 -0.31 0.58 1.39 -1.04 1.28 11/2/2009 10:00 0.85 -0.21 1.20 0.64 -0.08 0.84 1.17 -0.42 1.80 11/2/2009 11:00 0.77 0.22 1.03 0.63 0.22 0.77 0.99 0.21 1.44 11/2/2009 12:00 0.71 0.51 0.88 0.63 0.46 0.72 0.81 0.57 1.12 11/2/2009 13:00 0.67 0.58 0.87 0.62 0.53 0.73 0.76 0.64 1.08 11/2/2009 14:00 0.65 0.62 0.81 0.60 0.57 0.70 0.72 0.69 0.98 11/2/2009 15:00 0.56 0.61 0.70 0.51 0.55 0.60 0.63 0.67 0.84 11/2/2009 16:00 0.37 0.44 0.52 0.33 0.40 0.44 0.44 0.51 0.64 11/2/2009 17:00 0.13 0.26 0.30 0.10 0.21 0.22 0.18 0.33 0.40 11/2/2009 18:00 -0.11 0.02 0.04 -0.15 -0.02 -0.02 -0.07 0.08 0.13 11/2/2009 19:00 -0.34 -0.20 -0.21 -0.36 -0.24 -0.26 -0.31 -0.15 -0.15 11/2/2009 20:00 -0.52 -0.42 -0.40 -0.53 -0.46 -0.44 -0.50 -0.37 -0.36 11/2/2009 21:00 -0.62 -0.54 -0.51 -0.62 -0.57 -0.54 -0.61 -0.50 -0.47 11/2/2009 22:00 -0.62 -0.58 -0.53 -0.62 -0.61 -0.55 -0.63 -0.55 -0.50 11/2/2009 23:00 -0.55 -0.54 -0.47 -0.54 -0.56 -0.49 -0.55 -0.51 -0.45 11/3/2009 0:00 -0.41 -0.41 -0.36 -0.41 -0.43 -0.37 -0.42 -0.38 -0.34 11/3/2009 1:00 -0.26 -0.21 -0.21 -0.25 -0.24 -0.22 -0.27 -0.16 -0.19 11/3/2009 2:00 -0.12 0.20 -0.02 -0.11 0.08 -0.05 -0.16 0.23 -0.03 11/3/2009 3:00 -0.11 0.26 0.01 -0.08 0.28 0.02 Appendixes 5: The result of change Radius maximum in the storm Experient formula Time Banton formula Willoughby formula Binh Dinh Khanh Hoa Phu Yen Binh Dinh Khanh Hoa Binh Dinh Khanh Hoa Nha Trang Phu Yen 11/1/2009 0:00 0.06 -0.09 -0.02 0.03 -0.09 -0.02 0.03 -0.09 -0.02 11/1/2009 1:00 0.11 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.02 0.04 11/1/2009 2:00 0.13 0.08 0.09 0.11 0.08 0.09 0.11 0.08 0.09 11/1/2009 3:00 0.04 0.10 0.09 0.13 0.10 0.09 0.13 0.10 0.09 11/1/2009 4:00 0.01 0.08 0.05 0.04 0.08 0.05 0.04 0.08 0.05 11/1/2009 5:00 -0.03 0.02 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.00 11/1/2009 6:00 -0.08 -0.03 -0.04 -0.03 -0.03 -0.04 -0.03 -0.03 -0.04 11/1/2009 7:00 -0.02 -0.06 -0.07 -0.07 -0.06 -0.07 -0.08 -0.06 -0.07 11/1/2009 8:00 0.04 -0.05 -0.04 -0.02 -0.05 -0.04 -0.02 -0.05 -0.04 99 11/1/2009 9:00 0.13 0.00 0.03 0.04 0.00 0.03 0.04 0.00 0.03 11/1/2009 10:00 0.26 0.09 0.13 0.13 0.09 0.13 0.13 0.09 0.13 11/1/2009 11:00 0.34 0.20 0.24 0.26 0.20 0.24 0.26 0.20 0.24 11/1/2009 12:00 0.37 0.31 0.33 0.34 0.31 0.34 0.34 0.31 0.33 11/1/2009 13:00 0.36 0.38 0.38 0.37 0.38 0.38 0.37 0.38 0.38 11/1/2009 14:00 0.26 0.39 0.37 0.36 0.40 0.37 0.36 0.40 0.37 11/1/2009 15:00 0.11 0.33 0.29 0.26 0.34 0.29 0.26 0.34 0.29 11/1/2009 16:00 -0.06 0.20 0.14 0.11 0.21 0.15 0.11 0.21 0.15 11/1/2009 17:00 -0.25 0.02 -0.03 -0.06 0.03 -0.03 -0.06 0.03 -0.03 11/1/2009 18:00 -0.40 -0.16 -0.21 -0.25 -0.15 -0.21 -0.25 -0.15 -0.21 11/1/2009 19:00 -0.48 -0.34 -0.37 -0.39 -0.33 -0.36 -0.39 -0.33 -0.36 11/1/2009 20:00 -0.50 -0.47 -0.47 -0.47 -0.45 -0.45 -0.47 -0.46 -0.46 11/1/2009 21:00 -0.44 -0.54 -0.50 -0.49 -0.51 -0.48 -0.49 -0.51 -0.48 11/1/2009 22:00 -0.33 -0.54 -0.46 -0.42 -0.50 -0.44 -0.43 -0.50 -0.44 11/1/2009 23:00 -0.19 -0.48 -0.38 -0.31 -0.42 -0.34 -0.32 -0.43 -0.35 11/2/2009 0:00 -0.03 -0.39 -0.28 -0.17 -0.30 -0.22 -0.18 -0.31 -0.23 11/2/2009 1:00 0.12 -0.30 -0.19 -0.03 -0.18 -0.11 -0.03 -0.20 -0.12 11/2/2009 2:00 0.22 -0.23 -0.13 0.09 -0.07 -0.02 0.09 -0.10 -0.04 11/2/2009 3:00 0.33 -0.23 -0.14 0.16 -0.01 0.01 0.16 -0.05 -0.02 11/2/2009 4:00 0.44 -0.31 -0.21 0.20 -0.01 -0.02 0.22 -0.07 -0.06 11/2/2009 5:00 0.56 -0.49 -0.24 0.22 -0.08 -0.11 0.25 -0.16 -0.17 11/2/2009 6:00 0.75 -0.74 -0.03 0.23 -0.20 -0.25 0.29 -0.32 -0.26 11/2/2009 7:00 0.89 -0.91 0.69 0.35 -0.42 0.52 0.41 -0.51 0.57 11/2/2009 8:00 0.95 -0.92 0.67 0.45 -0.60 0.66 0.51 -0.62 0.65 11/2/2009 9:00 0.85 -0.58 0.84 0.73 -0.47 0.97 0.71 -0.42 0.99 11/2/2009 10:00 0.77 -0.21 1.20 0.74 -0.14 1.03 0.67 -0.10 0.96 11/2/2009 11:00 0.71 0.22 1.03 0.60 0.20 0.91 0.55 0.23 0.82 11/2/2009 12:00 0.67 0.51 0.88 0.64 0.40 0.82 0.57 0.38 0.74 11/2/2009 13:00 0.65 0.58 0.87 0.66 0.57 0.81 0.61 0.56 0.73 11/2/2009 14:00 0.56 0.62 0.81 0.63 0.57 0.75 0.58 0.55 0.68 11/2/2009 15:00 0.37 0.61 0.70 0.57 0.57 0.67 0.51 0.56 0.61 11/2/2009 16:00 0.13 0.44 0.52 0.37 0.40 0.51 0.32 0.37 0.46 11/2/2009 17:00 -0.11 0.26 0.30 0.12 0.24 0.29 0.08 0.21 0.24 11/2/2009 18:00 -0.34 0.02 0.04 -0.08 -0.01 0.03 -0.13 -0.03 -0.02 100 11/2/2009 19:00 -0.52 -0.20 -0.21 -0.32 -0.23 -0.23 -0.35 -0.26 -0.27 11/2/2009 20:00 -0.62 -0.42 -0.40 -0.50 -0.44 -0.41 -0.54 -0.46 -0.44 11/2/2009 21:00 -0.62 -0.54 -0.51 -0.59 -0.57 -0.51 -0.62 -0.58 -0.53 11/2/2009 22:00 -0.55 -0.58 -0.53 -0.61 -0.60 -0.53 -0.63 -0.61 -0.55 11/2/2009 23:00 -0.41 -0.54 -0.47 -0.52 -0.57 -0.48 -0.54 -0.57 -0.49 11/3/2009 0:00 -0.26 -0.41 -0.36 -0.38 -0.43 -0.36 -0.40 -0.43 -0.37 11/3/2009 1:00 -0.12 -0.21 -0.21 -0.24 -0.26 -0.21 -0.26 -0.26 -0.22 11/3/2009 2:00 -0.11 0.20 -0.02 -0.10 0.02 -0.05 -0.11 0.05 -0.06 11/3/2009 3:00 0.03 0.26 0.01 -0.05 0.28 0.04 -0.07 0.28 0.02 Appendixes 6: The result of change Radius maximum in the storm Cd = 0.0025 Time Cd = 0.005 Varying with wind speed Binh Dinh Khanh Hoa Phu Yen Binh Dinh Khanh Hoa Phu Yen Binh Dinh Khanh Hoa Phu Yen 11/1/2009 0:00 0.03 -0.09 -0.02 0.03 -0.09 -0.02 0.03 -0.09 -0.02 11/1/2009 1:00 0.06 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.02 0.04 11/1/2009 2:00 0.11 0.08 0.09 0.11 0.08 0.09 0.11 0.08 0.09 11/1/2009 3:00 0.13 0.10 0.09 0.13 0.10 0.09 0.13 0.10 0.09 11/1/2009 4:00 0.05 0.08 0.05 0.04 0.08 0.05 0.05 0.08 0.05 11/1/2009 5:00 0.01 0.03 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.00 11/1/2009 6:00 -0.03 -0.03 -0.04 -0.03 -0.03 -0.04 -0.03 -0.03 -0.04 11/1/2009 7:00 -0.08 -0.06 -0.07 -0.07 -0.06 -0.06 -0.08 -0.05 -0.07 11/1/2009 8:00 -0.02 -0.05 -0.04 -0.02 -0.05 -0.04 -0.02 -0.05 -0.04 11/1/2009 9:00 0.04 0.00 0.03 0.04 0.00 0.03 0.04 0.00 0.03 11/1/2009 10:00 0.13 0.09 0.13 0.13 0.09 0.13 0.13 0.10 0.13 11/1/2009 11:00 0.26 0.20 0.24 0.26 0.20 0.24 0.26 0.20 0.24 11/1/2009 12:00 0.34 0.31 0.34 0.33 0.31 0.33 0.34 0.32 0.34 11/1/2009 13:00 0.37 0.38 0.38 0.37 0.38 0.38 0.37 0.38 0.39 11/1/2009 14:00 0.36 0.40 0.37 0.36 0.39 0.37 0.37 0.40 0.37 11/1/2009 15:00 0.26 0.34 0.29 0.25 0.33 0.28 0.26 0.34 0.29 101 11/1/2009 16:00 0.11 0.21 0.15 0.11 0.20 0.14 0.12 0.21 0.15 11/1/2009 17:00 -0.06 0.03 -0.03 -0.07 0.02 -0.04 -0.05 0.03 -0.03 11/1/2009 18:00 -0.25 -0.15 -0.21 -0.26 -0.17 -0.22 -0.24 -0.15 -0.21 11/1/2009 19:00 -0.39 -0.33 -0.36 -0.41 -0.36 -0.38 -0.38 -0.32 -0.35 11/1/2009 20:00 -0.47 -0.46 -0.45 -0.50 -0.49 -0.48 -0.46 -0.45 -0.45 11/1/2009 21:00 -0.49 -0.51 -0.48 -0.52 -0.56 -0.52 -0.48 -0.50 -0.47 11/1/2009 22:00 -0.42 -0.50 -0.43 -0.46 -0.57 -0.49 -0.42 -0.49 -0.43 11/1/2009 23:00 -0.30 -0.43 -0.34 -0.36 -0.53 -0.42 -0.30 -0.41 -0.33 11/2/2009 0:00 -0.16 -0.32 -0.21 -0.21 -0.46 -0.34 -0.17 -0.30 -0.21 11/2/2009 1:00 -0.02 -0.20 -0.10 -0.04 -0.40 -0.29 -0.02 -0.18 -0.10 11/2/2009 2:00 0.11 -0.10 0.00 0.12 -0.37 -0.27 0.10 -0.08 0.00 11/2/2009 3:00 0.19 -0.05 0.05 0.25 -0.41 -0.35 0.19 -0.04 0.05 11/2/2009 4:00 0.25 -0.06 0.07 0.40 -0.56 -0.50 0.24 -0.06 0.07 11/2/2009 5:00 0.30 -0.15 0.11 0.57 -0.84 -0.64 0.29 -0.15 0.12 11/2/2009 6:00 0.35 -0.27 0.30 0.76 -1.22 -0.40 0.34 -0.27 0.30 11/2/2009 7:00 0.46 -0.34 0.67 1.04 -1.48 0.69 0.44 -0.33 0.68 11/2/2009 8:00 0.55 -0.33 0.64 1.21 -1.51 0.68 0.54 -0.32 0.64 11/2/2009 9:00 0.61 -0.13 0.73 1.27 -1.03 0.95 0.60 -0.13 0.72 11/2/2009 10:00 0.57 0.06 0.87 1.11 -0.47 1.55 0.56 0.06 0.85 11/2/2009 11:00 0.57 0.29 0.76 0.97 0.16 1.30 0.56 0.28 0.75 11/2/2009 12:00 0.57 0.48 0.70 0.83 0.52 1.05 0.56 0.47 0.69 11/2/2009 13:00 0.60 0.55 0.72 0.74 0.59 1.02 0.58 0.55 0.71 11/2/2009 14:00 0.59 0.58 0.68 0.71 0.65 0.94 0.57 0.57 0.67 11/2/2009 15:00 0.51 0.56 0.59 0.62 0.64 0.81 0.49 0.56 0.58 11/2/2009 16:00 0.33 0.40 0.43 0.43 0.48 0.61 0.31 0.40 0.41 11/2/2009 17:00 0.09 0.22 0.21 0.17 0.30 0.38 0.08 0.21 0.20 11/2/2009 18:00 -0.14 -0.02 -0.04 -0.08 0.06 0.11 -0.16 -0.03 -0.05 11/2/2009 19:00 -0.37 -0.24 -0.27 -0.31 -0.17 -0.16 -0.38 -0.25 -0.29 102 11/2/2009 20:00 -0.54 -0.46 -0.45 -0.50 -0.39 -0.36 -0.55 -0.47 -0.46 11/2/2009 21:00 -0.63 -0.57 -0.54 -0.59 -0.51 -0.48 -0.62 -0.58 -0.55 11/2/2009 22:00 -0.62 -0.61 -0.56 -0.61 -0.56 -0.50 -0.63 -0.62 -0.56 11/2/2009 23:00 -0.54 -0.57 -0.50 -0.52 -0.52 -0.46 -0.54 -0.57 -0.50 11/3/2009 0:00 -0.40 -0.43 -0.38 -0.38 -0.39 -0.35 -0.40 -0.44 -0.38 11/3/2009 1:00 -0.25 -0.25 -0.22 -0.24 -0.16 -0.19 -0.26 -0.26 -0.23 11/3/2009 2:00 -0.11 0.03 -0.06 -0.10 0.23 -0.03 -0.11 0.05 -0.06 11/3/2009 3:00 -0.06 0.30 0.03 -0.05 -0.07 0.29 0.02 Appendixes 7: The result of change Parameter model (B) Willoughby and Rahn formula Binh Khanh Phu Dinh Hoa Yen Binh Dinh Khanh Hoa Phu Yen Binh Dinh Khanh Hoa Phu Yen 11/1/2009 0:00 0.03 -0.09 0.03 0.04 -0.08 0.04 0.04 -0.08 0.04 11/1/2009 1:00 0.06 0.02 0.06 0.07 0.03 0.07 0.07 0.03 0.07 11/1/2009 2:00 0.11 0.08 0.11 0.13 0.09 0.13 0.12 0.08 0.12 11/1/2009 3:00 0.13 0.10 0.13 0.14 0.11 0.14 0.14 0.11 0.14 11/1/2009 4:00 0.04 0.08 0.04 0.06 0.09 0.06 0.06 0.08 0.06 11/1/2009 5:00 0.01 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.02 11/1/2009 6:00 -0.03 -0.03 -0.03 -0.02 -0.03 -0.02 -0.02 -0.03 -0.02 11/1/2009 7:00 -0.08 -0.06 -0.08 -0.06 -0.05 -0.06 -0.06 -0.05 -0.06 11/1/2009 8:00 -0.02 -0.05 -0.02 -0.02 -0.05 -0.02 -0.02 -0.05 -0.02 11/1/2009 9:00 0.04 0.00 0.04 0.05 0.01 0.05 0.05 0.00 0.05 11/1/2009 10:00 0.13 0.09 0.13 0.14 0.09 0.14 0.14 0.09 0.14 11/1/2009 11:00 0.26 0.20 0.26 0.26 0.20 0.26 0.26 0.21 0.26 11/1/2009 12:00 0.34 0.31 0.34 0.34 0.31 0.34 0.34 0.31 0.34 11/1/2009 13:00 0.37 0.38 0.37 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.38 11/1/2009 14:00 0.36 0.39 0.36 0.37 0.38 0.37 0.37 0.39 0.37 11/1/2009 15:00 0.26 0.33 0.26 0.27 0.32 0.27 0.27 0.33 0.27 11/1/2009 16:00 0.11 0.20 0.11 0.12 0.19 0.12 0.12 0.20 0.12 Time Young formula 103 Hollan formula 11/1/2009 17:00 -0.06 0.02 -0.06 -0.06 0.00 -0.06 -0.06 0.01 -0.06 11/1/2009 18:00 -0.25 -0.16 -0.25 -0.24 -0.19 -0.24 -0.24 -0.18 -0.24 11/1/2009 19:00 -0.40 -0.34 -0.40 -0.39 -0.38 -0.39 -0.39 -0.37 -0.39 11/1/2009 20:00 -0.48 -0.47 -0.48 -0.47 -0.51 -0.47 -0.48 -0.50 -0.48 11/1/2009 21:00 -0.50 -0.54 -0.50 -0.48 -0.59 -0.48 -0.49 -0.57 -0.49 11/1/2009 22:00 -0.44 -0.54 -0.44 -0.40 -0.59 -0.40 -0.42 -0.57 -0.42 11/1/2009 23:00 -0.33 -0.48 -0.33 -0.27 -0.53 -0.27 -0.30 -0.52 -0.30 11/2/2009 0:00 -0.19 -0.39 -0.19 -0.09 -0.43 -0.09 -0.13 -0.43 -0.13 11/2/2009 1:00 -0.03 -0.30 -0.03 0.09 -0.34 0.09 0.04 -0.34 0.04 11/2/2009 2:00 0.12 -0.23 0.12 0.26 -0.25 0.26 0.20 -0.27 0.20 11/2/2009 3:00 0.22 -0.23 0.22 0.38 -0.21 0.38 0.32 -0.25 0.32 11/2/2009 4:00 0.33 -0.31 0.33 0.49 -0.22 0.49 0.43 -0.30 0.43 11/2/2009 5:00 0.44 -0.49 0.44 0.59 -0.29 0.59 0.54 -0.43 0.54 11/2/2009 6:00 0.56 -0.74 0.56 0.69 -0.36 0.69 0.65 -0.58 0.65 11/2/2009 7:00 0.75 -0.91 0.75 0.82 -0.34 0.82 0.83 -0.58 0.83 11/2/2009 8:00 0.89 -0.92 0.89 0.94 -0.28 0.94 0.95 -0.50 0.95 11/2/2009 9:00 0.95 -0.58 0.95 1.01 -0.12 1.01 1.02 -0.24 1.02 11/2/2009 10:00 0.85 -0.21 0.85 0.98 0.10 0.98 0.96 0.03 0.96 11/2/2009 11:00 0.77 0.22 0.77 0.93 0.38 0.93 0.90 0.35 0.90 11/2/2009 12:00 0.71 0.51 0.71 0.88 0.56 0.88 0.87 0.55 0.87 11/2/2009 13:00 0.67 0.58 0.67 0.85 0.67 0.85 0.83 0.67 0.83 11/2/2009 14:00 0.65 0.62 0.65 0.80 0.71 0.80 0.79 0.70 0.79 11/2/2009 15:00 0.56 0.61 0.56 0.69 0.69 0.69 0.68 0.68 0.68 11/2/2009 16:00 0.37 0.44 0.37 0.50 0.53 0.50 0.49 0.53 0.49 11/2/2009 17:00 0.13 0.26 0.13 0.25 0.35 0.25 0.24 0.35 0.24 11/2/2009 18:00 -0.11 0.02 -0.11 0.00 0.10 0.00 0.00 0.10 0.00 11/2/2009 19:00 -0.34 -0.20 -0.34 -0.24 -0.12 -0.24 -0.24 -0.12 -0.24 11/2/2009 20:00 -0.52 -0.42 -0.52 -0.43 -0.33 -0.43 -0.43 -0.33 -0.43 11/2/2009 21:00 -0.62 -0.54 -0.62 -0.54 -0.46 -0.54 -0.53 -0.45 -0.53 11/2/2009 22:00 -0.62 -0.58 -0.62 -0.55 -0.51 -0.55 -0.55 -0.50 -0.55 104 11/2/2009 23:00 -0.55 -0.54 -0.55 -0.49 -0.47 -0.49 -0.48 -0.46 -0.48 11/3/2009 0:00 -0.41 -0.41 -0.41 -0.36 -0.36 -0.36 -0.35 -0.35 -0.35 11/3/2009 1:00 -0.26 -0.21 -0.26 -0.22 -0.21 -0.22 -0.21 -0.19 -0.21 11/3/2009 2:00 -0.12 0.20 -0.12 -0.09 -0.04 -0.09 -0.08 -0.03 -0.08 11/3/2009 3:00 -0.11 0.26 -0.11 0.02 0.09 0.02 0.03 0.10 0.03 Appendixes 8: The result of change Maximum wind speed in the storm - Binh Dinh province Time Atkinson and Holiday formula Drovak formula Fujita formula Grade Grade 15 11/1/2009 0:00 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 11/1/2009 1:00 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 11/1/2009 2:00 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.12 11/1/2009 3:00 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 11/1/2009 4:00 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.05 11/1/2009 5:00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 11/1/2009 6:00 -0.03 -0.03 -0.03 -0.03 -0.03 11/1/2009 7:00 -0.08 -0.08 -0.08 -0.07 -0.07 11/1/2009 8:00 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 11/1/2009 9:00 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 11/1/2009 10:00 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 11/1/2009 11:00 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.26 11/1/2009 12:00 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 11/1/2009 13:00 0.37 0.37 0.37 0.37 0.37 11/1/2009 14:00 0.36 0.36 0.36 0.36 0.36 11/1/2009 15:00 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.26 11/1/2009 16:00 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 11/1/2009 17:00 -0.06 -0.06 -0.06 -0.06 -0.07 11/1/2009 18:00 -0.25 -0.25 -0.25 -0.25 -0.26 11/1/2009 19:00 -0.40 -0.40 -0.40 -0.39 -0.41 11/1/2009 20:00 -0.48 -0.48 -0.48 -0.47 -0.50 11/1/2009 21:00 -0.50 -0.50 -0.50 -0.49 -0.53 11/1/2009 22:00 -0.44 -0.44 -0.44 -0.43 -0.47 105 11/1/2009 23:00 -0.33 -0.33 -0.33 -0.32 -0.35 11/2/2009 0:00 -0.19 -0.19 -0.19 -0.18 -0.19 11/2/2009 1:00 -0.03 -0.03 -0.03 -0.03 -0.01 11/2/2009 2:00 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.10 0.19 11/2/2009 3:00 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.18 0.36 11/2/2009 4:00 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.23 0.54 11/2/2009 5:00 0.44 0.44 0.44 0.27 0.77 11/2/2009 6:00 0.56 0.56 0.56 0.32 0.99 11/2/2009 7:00 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.43 1.37 11/2/2009 8:00 0.89 0.89 0.89 0.53 1.63 11/2/2009 9:00 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.66 1.85 11/2/2009 10:00 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.68 1.68 11/2/2009 11:00 0.77 0.77 0.77 0.68 1.44 11/2/2009 12:00 0.71 0.71 0.71 0.69 1.20 11/2/2009 13:00 0.67 0.67 0.67 0.66 1.07 11/2/2009 14:00 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.64 1.02 11/2/2009 15:00 0.56 0.56 0.56 0.55 0.93 11/2/2009 16:00 0.37 0.37 0.37 0.37 0.71 11/2/2009 17:00 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.14 0.41 11/2/2009 18:00 -0.11 -0.11 -0.11 -0.11 0.15 11/2/2009 19:00 -0.34 -0.34 -0.34 -0.33 -0.13 11/2/2009 20:00 -0.52 -0.52 -0.52 -0.50 -0.35 11/2/2009 21:00 -0.62 -0.62 -0.62 -0.60 -0.49 11/2/2009 22:00 -0.62 -0.62 -0.62 -0.60 -0.53 11/2/2009 23:00 -0.55 -0.55 -0.55 -0.52 -0.47 11/3/2009 0:00 -0.41 -0.41 -0.41 -0.39 -0.36 11/3/2009 1:00 -0.26 -0.26 -0.26 -0.24 -0.22 11/3/2009 2:00 -0.12 -0.12 -0.12 -0.10 -0.08 11/3/2009 3:00 -0.11 -0.11 -0.11 -0.05 -0.07 Time Atkinson and Holiday formula Drovak formula Fujita formula Grade Grade 15 11/1/2009 0:00 -0.09 -0.09 -0.09 -0.09 -0.09 - Khanh Hoa province 106 11/1/2009 1:00 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 11/1/2009 2:00 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 11/1/2009 3:00 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 11/1/2009 4:00 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 11/1/2009 5:00 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 11/1/2009 6:00 -0.03 -0.03 -0.03 -0.03 -0.03 11/1/2009 7:00 -0.06 -0.06 -0.06 -0.06 -0.06 11/1/2009 8:00 -0.05 -0.05 -0.05 -0.05 -0.05 11/1/2009 9:00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 11/1/2009 10:00 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 11/1/2009 11:00 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 11/1/2009 12:00 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 11/1/2009 13:00 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.37 11/1/2009 14:00 0.39 0.39 0.39 0.40 0.38 11/1/2009 15:00 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.34 0.32 11/1/2009 16:00 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.21 0.19 11/1/2009 17:00 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.00 11/1/2009 18:00 -0.16 -0.16 -0.16 -0.15 -0.19 11/1/2009 19:00 -0.34 -0.34 -0.34 -0.33 -0.38 11/1/2009 20:00 -0.47 -0.47 -0.47 -0.46 -0.52 11/1/2009 21:00 -0.54 -0.54 -0.54 -0.52 -0.60 11/1/2009 22:00 -0.54 -0.54 -0.54 -0.51 -0.61 11/1/2009 23:00 -0.48 -0.48 -0.48 -0.43 -0.59 11/2/2009 0:00 -0.39 -0.39 -0.39 -0.32 -0.54 11/2/2009 1:00 -0.30 -0.30 -0.30 -0.21 -0.50 11/2/2009 2:00 -0.23 -0.23 -0.23 -0.11 -0.48 11/2/2009 3:00 -0.23 -0.23 -0.23 -0.06 -0.56 11/2/2009 4:00 -0.31 -0.31 -0.31 -0.08 -0.74 11/2/2009 5:00 -0.49 -0.49 -0.49 -0.17 -1.06 11/2/2009 6:00 -0.74 -0.74 -0.74 -0.30 -1.49 11/2/2009 7:00 -0.91 -0.91 -0.91 -0.42 -1.99 11/2/2009 8:00 -0.92 -0.92 -0.92 -0.48 -2.18 11/2/2009 9:00 -0.58 -0.58 -0.58 -0.32 -1.65 11/2/2009 10:00 -0.21 -0.21 -0.21 -0.11 -0.83 11/2/2009 11:00 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.21 0.13 107 11/2/2009 12:00 0.51 0.51 0.51 0.46 0.65 11/2/2009 13:00 0.58 0.58 0.58 0.54 0.76 11/2/2009 14:00 0.62 0.62 0.62 0.58 0.85 11/2/2009 15:00 0.61 0.61 0.61 0.57 0.86 11/2/2009 16:00 0.44 0.44 0.44 0.42 0.70 11/2/2009 17:00 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.23 0.53 11/2/2009 18:00 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.27 11/2/2009 19:00 -0.20 -0.20 -0.20 -0.22 0.05 11/2/2009 20:00 -0.42 -0.42 -0.42 -0.44 -0.19 11/2/2009 21:00 -0.54 -0.54 -0.54 -0.56 -0.34 11/2/2009 22:00 -0.58 -0.58 -0.58 -0.60 -0.42 11/2/2009 23:00 -0.54 -0.54 -0.54 -0.56 -0.40 11/3/2009 0:00 -0.41 -0.41 -0.41 -0.43 -0.30 11/3/2009 1:00 -0.21 -0.21 -0.21 -0.25 -0.12 11/3/2009 2:00 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.05 0.29 11/3/2009 3:00 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.29 0.34 - Phu Yen province Time Atkinson and Holiday formula Drovak formula Fujita formula Grade Grade 15 11/1/2009 0:00 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 11/1/2009 1:00 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 11/1/2009 2:00 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 11/1/2009 3:00 11/1/2009 4:00 0.09 0.05 0.09 0.05 0.09 0.05 0.09 0.05 0.09 0.05 11/1/2009 5:00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 11/1/2009 6:00 -0.04 -0.04 -0.04 -0.04 -0.04 11/1/2009 7:00 -0.07 -0.07 -0.07 -0.07 -0.06 11/1/2009 8:00 -0.04 -0.04 -0.04 -0.04 -0.03 11/1/2009 9:00 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 11/1/2009 10:00 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 11/1/2009 11:00 11/1/2009 12:00 0.24 0.33 0.24 0.33 0.24 0.33 0.24 0.34 0.25 0.34 11/1/2009 13:00 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.38 11/1/2009 14:00 0.37 0.37 0.37 0.37 0.37 11/1/2009 15:00 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 11/1/2009 16:00 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.15 0.14 11/1/2009 17:00 -0.03 -0.03 -0.03 -0.03 -0.04 11/1/2009 18:00 -0.21 -0.21 -0.21 -0.21 -0.22 108 11/1/2009 19:00 -0.37 -0.37 -0.37 -0.36 -0.38 11/1/2009 20:00 -0.47 -0.47 -0.47 -0.46 -0.49 11/1/2009 21:00 -0.50 -0.50 -0.50 -0.48 -0.53 11/1/2009 22:00 -0.46 -0.46 -0.46 -0.44 -0.51 11/1/2009 23:00 -0.38 -0.38 -0.38 -0.35 -0.45 11/2/2009 0:00 -0.28 -0.28 -0.28 -0.24 -0.38 11/2/2009 1:00 11/2/2009 2:00 -0.19 -0.13 -0.19 -0.13 -0.19 -0.13 -0.13 -0.04 -0.34 -0.33 11/2/2009 3:00 -0.14 -0.14 -0.14 -0.02 -0.44 11/2/2009 4:00 -0.21 -0.21 -0.21 -0.03 -0.60 11/2/2009 5:00 11/2/2009 6:00 -0.24 -0.03 -0.24 -0.03 -0.24 -0.03 -0.04 0.05 -0.69 -0.24 11/2/2009 7:00 0.69 0.69 0.69 0.43 1.32 11/2/2009 8:00 0.67 0.67 0.67 0.43 1.34 11/2/2009 9:00 11/2/2009 10:00 0.84 1.20 0.84 1.20 0.84 1.20 0.58 0.89 1.78 2.68 11/2/2009 11:00 1.03 1.03 1.03 0.83 2.26 11/2/2009 12:00 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.78 1.77 11/2/2009 13:00 11/2/2009 14:00 0.87 0.81 0.87 0.81 0.87 0.81 0.80 0.76 1.63 1.45 11/2/2009 15:00 0.70 0.70 0.70 0.65 1.25 11/2/2009 16:00 0.52 0.52 0.52 0.48 1.00 11/2/2009 17:00 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.27 0.72 11/2/2009 18:00 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.02 0.41 11/2/2009 19:00 -0.21 -0.21 -0.21 -0.23 0.06 11/2/2009 20:00 -0.40 -0.40 -0.40 -0.42 -0.20 11/2/2009 21:00 -0.51 -0.51 -0.51 -0.52 -0.35 11/2/2009 22:00 -0.53 -0.53 -0.53 -0.54 -0.41 11/2/2009 23:00 -0.47 -0.47 -0.47 -0.48 -0.39 11/3/2009 0:00 11/3/2009 1:00 11/3/2009 2:00 -0.36 -0.21 -0.02 -0.36 -0.21 -0.02 -0.36 -0.21 -0.02 -0.36 -0.22 -0.05 -0.30 -0.16 0.03 11/3/2009 3:00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.04 109 ... surges will be increase wave height in center of the storm - Chuẩn H.X et al (2008) “ Đánh giá số phương pháp tính tốn nước dâng bão Việt Nam” compared the advantages and disadvantages indicate... boundary conditions 2.2.1 Analysis data and choose scope of model 2.2.1.1 Analysing data - Topography Topography data is obtained from the project? ?Xây dựng đồ ngập lụt nước biển dâng tình bão mạnh,... Việt Nam, then, assessing the impact to each region - Hiển N.X et al (2012) ? ?Nghiên cứu, tính tốn nước dâng tổng cộng bão cho khu vực ven biển Thành phố Hải Phòng” has analyzed storm surge for 64