Đánh giá sức khỏe tài chính của công ty cổ phần phát triển đầu tư công nghệ FPT thông qua việc phân tích báo cáo tài chính nhằm đưa ra quyết định đầu tư e

Đánh giá sức khỏe tài cơng ty cổ phần phát triển đầu tư công nghệ FPT thông qua việc phân tích Báo Cáo Tài Chính nhằm đưa định đầu tư Lesson 1: Each group selected a company is listed on the Stock Exchange Ho Chi Minh City (STC) to implement the project entitled "Assessing the financial health of the company X through the Financial Statement analysis to make investment decisions ARTICLES MADE: Group IV decision choice stock companies invest in technology development (FPT) Question 1: Evaluate the financial health of the company stock investment in technology development through the FPT analysis Financial Statement to make investment decisions Part 1: Overview of FPT company: - History and development of FPT FPT forerunner of the Food Technology Corporation was established on 09.13.1988 On 27/10/1990, the Company has changed its name to Development Company Investment Technology FPT trade name is The International Corporation for Financing and Promoting Technology 03/2002, the Company equitized company name is changed to Corporation for Financing and Promoting Technology - Headquarters: No 89 Lang Ha Ward, Lang Ha, Dong Da district, Hanoi - Business activities mainly: + Research, design, production, technology transfer and application of information technology and other technologies; + Production of computer software; + Provides Internet services and increase the network; + Training and human resource intensive for the software industry; + Buy sell equipment and machinery in the field of health, education, science and technology, industry, environment, telecommunications, consumer goods, automobiles, motorcycles; + Investment Services technology transfer in the field of environment, education, health; + Production, fabrication and assembly of information technology equipment; + Business Services + Internet connection (IXP); + The other line of business by the certificate of business registration of the company - The main areas of activity of FPT + Integrated systems producing software; Provide ERP + Distribution of information technology products; mobile distribution + Provide solutions, telecommunications services and Internet + Training: higher education, training and international programming, multi-art training means + Assembling a computer + FPT Elead ®; warranty, maintenance of telecommunications equipment and computing + Provide communication services - Management structure of FPT GENERAL MEETING OF SHAREHOLDERS EXECUTIVE BOARD BOARD OF MANAGEMENT BOARD OF DIRECTORS UNIVERSITY FPT MEMBER COMPANIES SUBSIDIARY CENTRAL DEPARTMENT S Part 2: Analyzing the financial situation of FPT Corporation: After 20 years, FPT has actually confirmed the number one position in the village of information technology, has been conducted to expand fulfill the goal of becoming a multisector business corporations and multi-sector information technology is key Large scale and range of spread such thorough analysis of all the activities of the FPT is not an easy thing So with the limited data and time, subject to joint research on the financial situation of the company without going to analyze each retail operation - The number of total debt: total debt indicators show that the use of the company's debt is to influence how business performance N Target 2009 2010 2011 Liabilities 6.677.492.550.374 7.255.512.891.181 8.717.275.015.362 Total assets 10.395.415.418.082 12.304.544.443.351 14.943.086.539.425 Notes The total debt 64% 59% 58% In recent years, we find that this index is always> 50% Caused by increasing the number of company subsidiaries, affiliates should have raised large funds Despite the company's profits continued to increase the company can use leverage an effective way - The current ratio: N Target 2009 short-term assets 7.678.505.205.644 8.839.022.362.540 11.372.728.248.045 Growth 64,8% Current liabilities 4.765.832.766.691 5.439.122.118.786 8.475.464.627.022 Growth 47,9% 14,1% 55,8% The current ratio 1,61 1,63 1,34 2010 15,1% 2011 Notes 28,7% 2009 and 2010 this index increased slightly and> 1.6 good sign demonstrate the ability to willingly pay higher debts The reason is that the growth rate of short-term assets is greater than the growth rate of short-term debt But through 2011 this index decreased to 1.34 in 2011 FPT by building and developing new policies - oneFPT should have created a number of changes, many long-term debt reduction and increased short-term debt With the current Payment Index is 1.34 times in 2011, FPT still ensuring years of high debt payments - The Quick ratio: N Target 2009 2010 short-term assets 7.678.505.205.644 8.839.022.362.540 11.372.728.248.045 Inventory 1.426.043.318.661 2.448.471.898.690 3.275.849.800.433 Current liabilities 4.765.832.766.691 5.439.122.118.786 8.475.464.627.022 The Quick ratio 1,31 1,18 2011 Notes 0,96 The index is generally approximately in years => FPT has ample working capital the company will be less likely to have difficulty in the matter of payment of due debts But in years this index continued to decline, FPT should take measures to maintain the index at a stable level to avoid stagnation and efficient use of capital - The turnover of total assets: N Target 2009 2010 2011 Notes net revenue 18.404.026.239.626 20.017.303.667.573 25.370.246.866.401 total assets 10.395.415.418.082 12.304.544.443.351 14.943.086.539.425 The turnover of 1,77 total assets 1,63 1,70 Through consultation with businesses along lines of FPT, this factor is higher than the industry average, over 2009 such companies in 2011, the index is reduced, leading to decreased ability to recover capital of the company and causes images interfere with operation of the company reinvested - The turnover of receivables: N Target 2009 2010 2011 accounts receivable 2.545.551.247.664 3.248.876.343.735 3.781.513.726.520 net revenue 18.404.026.239.626 20.017.303.667.573 25.370.246.866.401 Turnover accounts receivable of 49,8 58,4 Notes 53,7 The number of rounds of FTP accounts receivable increased to 02 in 2010 and 2011, probably due to the economic crisis occurred, suggesting that companies with capital recovery rate is slow, with customers constitute capital, especially is a company with core business is information technology, this factor is very high Companies need to better manage sales policy to increase the deferred revenue has better payback - The rate of return on assets - ROA: N Target 2009 2010 2011 Notes 1.691.757.253.295 2.079.147.729.686 Profit after tax 1.405.874.243.186 Total assets 10.395.415.418.082 12.304.544.443.351 14.943.086.539.425 ROA 13,5% 13,8% 13,9% ROA increased continuously over the years showing growth of profit after tax> growth rate of total TS although inventory and accounts receivable increased year by year the company proved very effective operation, attract investors - The rate of return on equity - ROE: N Target 2009 2010 2011 Profit after tax 1.405.874.243.186 1.691.757.253.295 2.079.147.729.686 Equity 3.002.250.920.696 3.983.400.714.548 5.521.004.779.653 Notes ROE 46,8% 42,5% 37,7% Index of FPT ROE is very high compared to the same business lines, although in 2011 ROE has decreased but is still very high, which are attractive to investors, creating favorable conditions for raising equity FPT - Earnings per common share - EPS: N Target 2009 2010 2011 Notes Profit after tax for 1.063.348.913.874 1.264.506.352.990 1.681.818.194.700 shareholders volume of shares 189.646.676 outstanding 192.057.465 213.944.561 EPS 6.584 7.861 5.607 EPS of FPT is high compared to the same industry and enterprises increased continuously even though the economic situation deteriorated It's very attractive to investors - The ratio of market price versus income per share P / E: N Target 2009 2010 2011 Stock Market 79.000 64.500 49.700 Earnings per 5.607 share 6.584 7.861 P/E 9.8 6.3 14.09 Notes P / E of declining year by year FPT => return on a company's shares higher, reflecting the confidence of investors for the company Also, this ratio decreased from 9.14 in 2009 to just 6.3 in 2011 due to the prolonged economic crisis, financial markets froze to the market price per share have declined - Analysis of cash flows: N Target Cash flow from business activities Cash flow from investing activities Cash flow from financing activities 2009 2010 2011 523.274.074.296 485.515.049.056 1.846.584.283.418 1.904.049.096.667 1.478.913.084.819 107.016.712.820 2.310.510.026.631 1.436.127.765.530 -487.345.938.486 Notes Cash flow from operations up strong business performance in 2011 is due to the large increase in interest from investments in associated companies, reducing accounts receivable and reducing inventories Cash flow from investing activities: There is a sharp increase from the state and (-) in 2009 and 2010 to state (+) in 2011 mainly because revenue from the divestments of investments in single others Cash flow from financing activities: 2011 business performance efficiency, increase profits, the dividend payment therefore increases => cash flow decline From the comments on that business performance can be the core to the company can offset the operating costs, investment, paying dividends to the cash flow from operations increased business performance in 2011 is very important although it presents more influenced by bad economic volatility of domestic and world production and business activities of FPT but still quite well done Although there are some limitations such as speed of slow recovery of money, which occupied a large number as well as on the overall high debt, but many companies are remedies to be able to keep good business, maintaining leading position in the ICT sector in the coming years Part 3: Investment Decision Making On the basis of analyzing the financial situation of the company FPT 2009, 2010, 2011; along with the leading position in the core business is IT continuity 10 years, reaching 20-25% growth Along with the stock market at this stage was down to the bottom, we strongly recommend investing in FPT Lesson 2: Make a project called: "Buy sell or hold shares of FPT through the use of valuation models." I Dividend discount model Dividend discount model is designed to calculate the theoretical value (intrinsic value) of common stock This model is Merrill Lynch, CS First Boston and several other investment banks to use assumptions: (1) the dynamics of dividend growth, and (2) the discount rate Moreover, the theoretical value (intrinsic value) of a stock is the value of such securities should be based on factors that are relevant to the valuation of securities In other words, a theoretical value of the stock is its economic value and in terms of the efficient market price of the stock market will reflect the approximate its theoretical value We apply this theory to analyze the FPT company with the following data: We have the basic financial indicators for years from 2009 to 2011 as follows Key Indicators 2009 2010 2011 Net Revenue (Million VNĐ) 1.851.522,86 2.457.391,57 3.489.281,37 growth in net revenue (%) 42,51% 32,72% 41,99% Profit after tax (Million VNĐ) 450.294,52 516.945,92 582.051 After-tax profit growth (%) 71,81% 14,8% 12,59% ROA (%) 26,11% 24,35% 24,07% ROE (%) 53,47% 43,24% 53,47% EPS (VNĐ) 7.581,01 6.220,26 5.837,93 EPS growth (%) 22,76% -17,95% -6,15% Dividends (%) 65% 35% 10% Total assets (Million VNĐ) 1.724.745,72 2.122.945,73 2.418.597,09 Owners of capital investment (Million 593.977,1 VNĐ) 831.067,62 997.015,35 Equity (Million VNĐ) 1.195.429,21 1.088.561,44 Basic earnings per share 842.193,77 7, 498.00 6, 584.00 7, 861.00 References from the web www.vinacorp.vn a The dividend growth rate constant In this case the stock valuation model the valuation model of Gordon dividend because it developed by Myron J Gordon from the work of his predecessors John Williams is formulated as follows ke = (Dt/V) + g Dt is the dividend which is divided in periods t and ke is the rate of return required by investors and g is the dividend growth rate, V is the value of shares with the profit rate and rate ke growth g So if the dividend expectations of FPT shares in period t = 2012 is equal to the average value of the dividend years from 2009 to 2011 was 6,975.50 thousand dong According to the data of this dividend is expected to rise 13% in the future are So if we require investment profit rate is 25% as bank loan interest rates the stock price will be: a: V = D/ (ke – g) V = D/ (ke – g) = 6,975.50 /(0.25 – 0.13) = 58,129.17 dong b Dividend growth rate is zero This is just a special case of model dividend growth rate constant when g = Then the formula (a) can be written V = D / ke (b) Although rarely shares any growth rate equal to forever, but with any stock dividend and maintain stability in a long time (b) can be applied to determine the approximate stock price shares incentives can be viewed as a stock dividend growth rate is zero Thus FPT share price in the case V = D/ke = 6,975.50 /0.25 = 27,902.00 dong c Dividend growth rate changes We assume that the current dividend of FPT shares with the value of dividends actually paid in the year 2009, and reportedly thought the growth rate of dividends over the years as follows: − FPT Telecom to pay 2009 dividend in shares 20% rate − FPT Telecom to pay 2010 dividend in shares 18.45% rate − FPT Telecom to pay cash dividends in 2011, the rate of 10% So based on data in the table of financial indicators above we calculate the value of this stock in 2012 as follows Year Future value The rate of increase The present value 2009 7,498.00 20% 7,498.00 2010 6,584.00 18% 6,215.30 2011 7,861.00 10% 6,087.56 Market shares at 22/06/2012 49,000.00 Intrinsic value at the time of FPT 22/06/2012 II 68,800.85 Price-Earnings ratio Assuming that the expected return on shares of FPT in 2012 with the value of dividends paid in 2011 = $ 7.861 and as you know the boss FPT shares in the telecommunications industry group, in which the PE group this sector were 8.9 (on site www.cophieu68.com) such shares of FPT values can be V = the expected return on stock x Percentage of industry average = 7,861 * 8.9 = $69,962.90 III Book value of common share method The book value of a company is the value of all assets shown on the balance sheet minus all debts, financial obligations and intangible assets This is also the equity of the company at that time - Formula: Book value of shares = (Total assets - Total debts – Preference shares - Intangible assets) / total number of outstanding shares - Calculation for FPT: base on balance sheets date 31.03.2012 • Total assets = 2,416,958,079,080 • Total debts = 1,036,829,540,830 • Preference shares = • Intangible assets = 165,150,709,376 + 11,778,742,122 = 176,929,451,498 • total number of outstanding shares = 99,537,856 • Book value of shares = = (2,416,958,079,080 - 1,036,829,540,830 – 176,929,451,498) / 99,537,856 = 12,088 P / B index is used to compare a share price to book value of that share This rate is calculated by taking the current closing price of share divided by book value at the latest quarter of that share Formula: P/B = Share price/(Book value of outstanding share) - In this sense, the P/B index is related to the degree of safety of investment account, P/B is one of the tools help investors determine reasonable share price - Calculation for FPT: • Current share price = 34,750 (closing price date 26/06/2012) • Book value price = 12,088 • P/B = 34,750 / 12,088 = 2,87 o The current market value is 2.87 times as high as book value, means market price is higher than actual one - However, P / B index has many disadvantages as book value or equity is not a reliable guide for businesses in many industries The reason is that assets included in the balance sheet are stated at original cost, not the current value; accounts receivable, inventory is also difficult to determine exactly - In addition, P / B index does not recognize the intangible value such as skills, knowledge of human resources, brand and reputation, which is the main basis for the development of a company Depending on the type and the specific activities of the company, P/B is given to consider investing Naturally, investors are interested in companies doing effect business with P/B index towards - P/B is just only one of the reference numbers to consider before investing Besides P/B, investors need to consider other indicators such as P/E, EPS, ROE and dividend payout ratio,…and to compare with other companies operating in the same field  Telecommunication companies: Securities Price Code (Thousa nd VND) FTELECO O 34,75 Capitali P/E P/B ROA ROE LNST/ Deviden zation (Times (Time (%) (Billion ) (%) DT (%) d/ s) market VND) price(%) 3.464,63 5,92,87 24,07 53,47 19,3 M TC AVGC OTC 25 4.500 - - - - - - CADICO OTC 20 - - - - - - - CPCT OTC 10,5 0,04 3,78 - - - 7,16 - CTIN OTC 10 157 - - - 20,29 - - DOTEC OTC 12,5 18,75 22,44 - - - - - ELC HOSE 28,4 628,35 - 1,66 - - - - KST HNX 20,97 2,79 0,37 - - 6,81 - LTSC OTC - - - - - - - - NIS HNX 4,8 14,4 - 0,4 - - - - PMT UPCOM 4,7 23,5 195,83 - - - - - Look at the table above, we can easily realize that FTELECOM dominate over other companies about effect of carrying business, asset utilization, and other indicators related to the share such as P/B, P/E, EPS, Therefore, investors decide to invest in this share IV Conclusion Assuming that the above data is correct, according to the above financial indicators we can easily see that the financial indicators are achieved good wall increases year by year, same 10 time, stock prices in the FPT analysis of 06/22/2012 are: $ 49,000