Những luận cứ khoa học cho việc hoạch định chính sách dân số việt nam thập kỷ 90

CHUONG TRiNH CAP NHA NUOC KX.04 DE TAr KX 04.03 NHUNG LuAN ClI KHOA HOC CHO VIEC HOACH DINH ,' -CHINH SACH DAN SOVieT NAM THAp KY 90 ' • TOM TAT BAa cAa TONG HOP Chunhi~m: Co PGs PTs NGUY~N VAN THItu Giam doc Trung tam Nghien cuu Dan so- Nguon Lao dQng BQLao dQng - Thllcmg binh va Xa hQi CO QUAN CHU TRt: BO LAO DONG - THVONG BINH vA xA Hal QUAN THl)C HI~N: mUNG TAM NGHEN clIU DAN sO - NGuON LAO DONG co Co PGs PTs Nguy~n Van Thi~u Nguyen Giam doc Trung Him Nghien cuu Dan so va Nguon Lao dong Ph6 Chu nhi~m: PTs Dorm M{lu Di~p Giam doc Trung tam Nghien cuu Dan so va Nguon Lao dong Ks N guy~n Thj Hili Van Ks Nguy~n Due Hung Chu nhi~m De tai nhanh: Gs Ts D:)ng Thu Nhung ngudi tham gia: Cac can bo cua Trung tam Nghien cuu Dan so va Nguon Lao dong PTs Ho Quang Minh, Dy ban Ke ho~ch Nha nudc PTs Nguyen Van Thanh, Dy ban Ke ho~ch Nha nudc Ks Vl,l trudng Tran thi Tuyet Mai, Dy ban Ke ho~ch Nha nudc Bs Ng6 Khang CUdng, Dy ban Quoc gia Dan so va Ke ho~ch h6a gia dinh Ks Dinh C6ng Thoan, Dy ban Quoc gia Dan so va Ke ho~ch h6a gia dinh Va cac cong s1;lcua cac cd quan khac GIOI THIEU CHUNG: Chinh sach dan so la mot ph9-m tru rong ldn N6 bien dong theo nghia rong hay nghia hyp la thuoc VaGm\lc tieu din d9-tdUQctrong tung giai d09-n nhat dinh e moi nudc Nhin chung, moi chinh sach dan so deu phai c6 cac m\lc tieu C\lthe theo thoi gian, phai c6 cac bi~n phap va cac chuang trinh de d9-t dUQCm\lC tieu da dc;it day chi nghien cUUtheo nghia hypo Chinh sach dan so la mot h~ thong cac giai phap ma Nha nUdc, Trung uang cling nhu cac dia phuang d1,1 dinh th1,1c i~n nham kiem soat dUQcS1,1 h phat trien cua dan so phu hQP vdi nhung yeu diu phat trien kinh te xa hoi, dam bao S1,1 phon vinh cua dat nudc va nang cao chih lUQngcuoc song cua nhan dan Cling nhu mQi 109-ichinh sach kinh te - xa hOi khac, chinh sach dan so se gom hai nh6m: chinh sach dan so mang tinh ml:J,C tieu va chinh sach dan so mang tinh bi¢n phdp Trong chinh sach dan so, m\lC tieu ve lUQngdUQcnhan m9-nh bei vi hi~u l1,1c cua chinh sach c6 lien quan trudc het tdi vi~c tac dong VaGquy mo dan so va lam thay doi ty l~ phat trien dan so Ngoai m\lc tieu ve lUQng,chinh sach dan so bao gom ca m\lc tieu cua chat lUQngdan so va cac m\lCtieu phi lUQngkhac, dan den lam cho chinh sach dan so gan nhu dong nghia vdi cac chinh sach xa hoi n6i chung Chat lUQngsinh hQc, doi tUQngcua cac bi~n phap kiem truc cau truc gen cua mot dan so, doi cling dUQcthe hi~n chinh sach dan so V di cac quan ni~m d6, chinh sach dan so bao gom vi~c xem xet cac xu hUdng dan so qua khu va hi~n t9-iva nguyen nhan cua cac xu hUdng d6; d1,1 bao nhung thay doi nhan khau hQc tuang lai theo cac xu hUdng xac dinh; danh gia S1,1nh a hueng cua qua trinh dan so doi vdi S1,1hat trien kinh te xa hOi n6i chung cua dat p nUdc; va cuoi cung la S1,1 chap nh~n cac bi~n phap de nham dem 19-i thay d0i n mong muon hoc;icngan chc;innhung cai khong mong muon Cac xu hUdng nhan khau hQc c6 the lam thay doi moi quan h~ giua muc sinh, tu va di cu tong the dan so hoc;ictrong tung bO ph?n khac thuoc dan so Do d6, cac nha l~p chinh sach phai quari tam tdi cac yeu to tac dong tdi sinh, tu va di dan Tuy nhien th1,1c te hi~n nay, hau het cac chinh sach dan so deu hUdng VaGvi~c gay tac dong tdi muc sinh, mc;icdu xu hUdng va tac dong cua tu vong va di cu cling c6 the dUQC nghien cuu Icy, bei vi nhung thay doi cua chung c6 the la nhung nhan to thuc day dan so tre mot "van de" PHAN THU' I: PHUONG pHAP LU!N I Dpm nghia,~c di~m,phanlo~i chinh sach dan s6 Khfli ni~m: (do mot so chuyen gia ve chinh sach dan so thu¢c Uj ban Dan so cua H¢i dong Kinh te-Xci h¢i Lien HQP Quoc dci dua ra) "Chinh sach dan so la cac giai phap va cac chudng trinh nham dt;ltdUQccac ml,lctieu kinh te - xcih¢i, dan so, chinh tri va cac ml,lCtieu khac thong qua anh huang cua cac bien dan so nhu quy mo va toc d¢ tang dan so, phan bo dan so theo dia ly (trong nudc va quoc te) va cac d~c trung nhan khau hQc khac." Ve ban chat, can nguoi wa la chu the cua mQi chinh sach, wa la doi tUQngma mQi chinh sach can phai quan tam, cho nen c6 the hieu "Chinh sach dan so" baa gam tat ca cac hot;lt dong c6 anh huang lam thay doi cac yeu to nhan khau hQc Thea nghia nay, pht;lmvi thl;lchi~n cac chinh sach dan so baa gam toan b¢ h~ thong phl,lc V1,1 sinh de, cac chien IUQcgiao dl,lc, cac chinh sach tac dong den sinh, nhflng quy dinh dieu chinh vi~c nh?p khau va san xmlt cac dl,lngCl,l ranh thai nUdc, nhflng quy dinh t Cl,l he ve su dl,lnglao dong, ve buon ban, phan phoi cac dl,lngCl,l ranh thai a khu V1;lC t t Nha nudc va tu nhan a) Chinh sach dan so phai chinh phu dua dudi dt;lngtuyen bo l?p truong, quan diem, cac dt;lolu?t va sac l~nh ho~c cac chudng trinh quan IY.Chinh sach dan so cung c6 the dUQC dua cho nhflng b¢ ph?n dan cu ldn, nho khac phu hQP vdi tung dieu ki~n Cl,lthe a tung quoc gia, chang ht;lncho tung nh6m dan t¢c ho~c cho tung c¢ng dong ton giao c) Chinh sach dan so phai c6 ml,lCtieu va ket qua Tilc la cac hot;lt dong dua phai lam thay doi cac Sl;lki~n dan so ho~c cac Sl;lki~n dan so bu¢c phai thay doi n¢i dung chinh sach Cac chinh sach dan so dUQcchia ba nh6m chinh: (1) Cac nh6m chinh sach tac dong tdi sinh, (2) Cac nh6m chinh sach tac dong tdi tu vong, (3) Cac nh6m chinh sach tac dong tdi di dan Qua ket qua dieu tra ve cac chinh sach cua chinh phu lien quan den muc sinh cua 168 nudc (bao gom ca cac nudc phat trien va dang phat trien) dUQcLHQ thl,lc hi~n nam 1983 cho thay so cac nudc ap dl,mgcac loq.ichinh sach khuyen khich va hq.n che sinh nhu sau: T6ng s6 m10e cae miOe eo ehinh saeh tang sinh - cae m10e pMt trien - Cae mioe dang pMt trien 39 129 11 12 CQog: 168 23 cae m10e tri mite sinh eii cae mioe eo ehinh saeh giam sinh cae miOe khong eo ehinh saeh 17 48 20 52 25 48 72 Chinh sach xuat phat tiI quan diem triet hQc nham can bang tiem nang va cua cai vdi dan so phuong phap da dUQcmot so nudc thl,lc hi~n nham de dam bao chinh sach khuyen sinh la: Tang cUdng tuyen truyen, khuyen khich sinh de, giam bdt va loq.itriI nghia kinh te co Vl,l De cao vai trc>va cap bang danh dl,l cho cac ba m~ dong Dua vao lu~t vi~c giam tUGiket hon va co the ly dt vo sinh La chinh sach hq.n che so cua cac c:}pvQ chong de giam toc gia tang dan so Chinh sach co the chia chinh sach trl,lc tiep va chinh sach gian tiep • Chinh sach trl,lc tiep: la chinh sach tac dong trl,lc tiep tdi giam sinh nhu cung cap dtch Vl,l tranh thai, bai b6 cac lu~t cam nq.o thai, tang tUGiket hon • Chinh sach gian tiep: la chinh sach co anh hUdng tdi vi~c chap nh~n cac bi~n phap tranh thai ho:}c nq.o thai va lam tang tUGiket hon nhu (1) nhflng bi~n phap khuyen khich btmg hinh thuc thudng (btmg tien ho?c hi~n V?t) cho ca nhtm ho?c ddn vi thl,lchi~n tot sinh de ke ho~ch de khuyen khich hQ thay doi hanh vi sinh de, ho?c c6 the dudi d~ng cung cap hQc bong cho tre em cua nhflng C?PvQchong it con, tn\ tien cho ngubi tri~t san, uu tien phan phoi nha d ; (2) nhflng bi~n phap khang khuyen khich (hay xU ph~t) nhflng ngubi vi ph~m cac quy dinh ma chudng trinh da d?t ra, chang h~n: ph~t tien nhflng ngubi sinh thu ba trd len, phai tra tien b~nh vi~n, giam thbi gian nghi de, khang cho hUdng lUdng nghi de, khang uu tien ph an phoi nha ; (3) nang cao dia vi phl,l nfl btmg cach nang cao trinh giao dl,lCcho ngubi phl,l nfl, (4) phat trien kinh te-xa hOi nham thay doi y nguy~n cua ngubi dan de hQ mong muon c6 mot gia dinh cOnh6; (5) thi h6a cong dong ngubi d nang than nham thu h~p khoang cach ve sinh gifla thi va nang than; (6) cung cap dinh duong, dich Vl,ly te cho tre em nham giam ty l~ chet tre Sd sinh, d6 nhflng ngubi m~, ngubi bo khang phai 10 de them, de nhieu de phong trubng hQP bat tdc; (7) bao hiem xa hoi tuoi gia va nhflng ngubi am dau, sinh de, that nghi~p de nhu cau dong nham cham s6c tuoi gia va dau am cua ngubi dan giam di; (8) giao dl,lCdan so, giup cho mQi ngubi, d?c bi~t la nien nh?n thuc dUQctam quan trQng cua van de dan so, d6 hQ se de dang chap nh?n cac bi~n phap tranh thai va quy ma gia dinh nh6 (b) Cae ehfnh saeh tae dong toi gidm mue ti't vong: Ngoai chinh sach tac dong tdi muc sinh la chu yeu h~ thong cac chinh sach dan so, chung ta cung phai de C?P tdi chinh sach tac dong tdi giam muc chet, n6 dUQcbieu hi~n qua cac chudng trinh va lo~i tru cac b~nh dich, truyen nhiem nhu sot n~t, lao ; cac bi~n phap nang cao suc kh6e ngubi dan (khang chi lam giam chet ma can c6 tac dong lam giam muc sinh), cai thi~n dieu ki~n y te, thl,lc hi~n ml,lCtieu "suc kh6e cho tat ca mQi ngubi den nam2000" (c) Cae ehfnh saeh tae dong toi di dan (bao gom ca di dan nudc va quoc te; nh~p cu va xuat cu) D6 la chinh sach khuyen khich thl,lc hi~n di dan de giam nh~ suc ep dan so, t~o m?t dan so tUdng doi dong deu ca nUdc, d?c bi~t doi vdi nhflng vlmg c6 m?t dO chenh l~ch qua nhieu bang cach: chinh phu cung cap cho nhflng ngubi di di cu dat dai, nha cila va nhflng dieu ki~n thu?n lQi hQ mdi den Cac chinh sach dua cac chien lUQcphat trien de tac dong van cac luong hudng di dan nudc M?t khac, chinh phu cung phai dau tu cho nhflng vling thua dan de phat trien san xuat va kinh doanh ciing nhu md rong dubng xa d nhflng vling NguQc l~i, doi vdi di cu quoc te la nhflng nudc dong dan, chinh phu l~i phai h~n che nhflng ngubi c6 tay nghe, trinh cao kh6i nudc ho?c nh?p cu c6 chQn lQc doi vdi nhflng nudc dang c6 dong ngubi nh?p cu qua ldn _ II Qui trinh nghH~ncuu· xay dl!ng va khuye'n nght v~ chinh sach dan s6 Vi cac van de dan so va chuang trinh dan so va ke hO;;tchhoa gia dinh la mot bO phl)n cua chitn luqc va kt hoq,ch ph