Nợ công và tăng trưởng kinh tế của quốc gia đông nam á

BO GIAO DVC vA 1>A.0 T~O TRUONG DAI MO THANH PHO HO CHi MINH • HOC • NGUYENTHIHONGPHUaC NO CONG vA TANG TRUONG KINH TE • CAC QUOC GIA DONG NAM A , Chuyen nganh Ma sf., chuyen nganh c " , : Kinh t~ hQc : 600301 01 LU~N VAN TH~C SY KINH TE HQC :0 J< TS.TRAN ANH TUAN LOI CAM DOAN Toi cam doan ring lu~n van nay" Ng cong va tang truOng kinh t€ cac qu6c gia Dong Narn A" la bai nghien CUu Clla chinh toi Ngoai trlr nhUng bU li~u tham khao dugc trich dfrn lu~n van nay, toi cam doan r~ng toan phdn hay nhUng phdn nh6 clla lu~ van chua timg dugc cong b6 ho~c duQ'c sir d\1ng d~ nh~ bing cAp nhUng noi khac Khong c6 san phAmlnghien cUu nao clla nguoi khac duQ'c sir d\1ng lu~n van rna khong dugc trich dfrn theo dung quy dinh Lu~n van chua bao gio duQ'c nQp d~ nh~n bAt ky b~ng cAp nao t~i cac truOng d~i hQc ho~c co so dao t~o khac TP.HCM, 2014 NGUYEN THI HONG PHUOC i LOICAMON Lai dAu tien, toi chan cam on nhfrng nguai than gia dinh dli dQng vi en, giup dO' thai gian d~ toi hofm lu~ van nhu tien dQ dli d~t Ke den toi xin chan cam on ThAy TrAn Anh Tudn giao vi en hu6ng ddn dli nhi~t tinh h6 tn}, hu6ng din cho toi holm bai lu~n van CuAi cung Chan cam on tdt ca quy ThAy, Co dli truy~n dt;lt cho toi nhfrng kien thirc quy bao suAt kh6a hQc Chan cam on dic bt;tn dli quan tam chia se nhfrng thong tin va kien thirc quy bao giup toi hom lu~ van TP.HCM, ngay08 thang D~nam 2014 ~ - NGUYENTHJHONGPHUOC II TOM TAT H chi2 - MOdel 132 132 Note: 20.33 0.0000 LII -364.3248 -358.1106 -331.7441 -321.5772 df u:C IXC 11 11 685.4881 665.1544 717.111811 6116.8652 N-Obs used in calculating 8J:C; s.e c_d d.pvar regress xtr.g gdp gdp [81 8J:C npt npar title 11 11 Pb\ll\lC 4: Kit qua kiem dinh Hausman 19a chQo git:ta FEM va REM - Coefficients ­ (b) CD) relll fell 081858 0274659 1.186556 -.5192382 -.2230622 0257863 -1.150529 -.2421276 0675816 -.0064521 L.9dC L.de cpi D.exp inf D inLrate D.jobl D.pop sav open 2126942 0287383 2209057 -.4405158 -.1944621 0454479 -1.250083 - 4759355 0667546 -.0171527 (b-B) Difference sqrt(diag{V_b-v_B» -.1308362 - 0012724 9656499 -.0787224 -.0286001 -.0196616 0995542 2338079 000827 0107005 021613 0054119 2720586 S.E .0934928 0080219 b • consistent under Ho and Ha: obtained frOM xtreg D • inconsistent under Ha effi ci ent under He: obtai ned froM xtreg Test: HO: difference in coefficients not systematic chi (10) • (b-B)' [(V_b-V.JI)A(-I)]{b-D) • 16.14 prob>chi2 • 0.0956 (v_b-v.JI is not positive definite) Pb\ll\lC 5: Kit qua ki~m djnb pbU'ong sai tbay d6i mo binb FEM Modified Wald test for groupw'lse heteroskedasticity in fixed ff.ct regression odel HO: sig.a(i)A2 - sig.aA2 for all chi2 (6) prob>chi2 • 55.43 0.0000 Trang 91 - Ph\ll\lc 6: Ket qua kiirn djnh tv tU'ong quan rno hinh FEM Correlation trix of residuals: _&1 1.0000 _e2 0.5053 -0.0620 _e4 0.2380 _as 0.5172 _&6 -0.0084 _&2 _&3 _e4 1.0000 0.3405 0.7500 0.65115 0.0050 1.0000 0.31151 0.3848 0.0315 1.0000 0.6501 0.0047 _e6 1.0000 0.1520 1.0000 53.851 pr • 0.0000 Ireusch-Pagan LM test of inde~ndence: chi2(15) • Based on 21 cQlplete observat on over panel unit Ph\l hlC 7: Ket qua th6ng k@ rno ta variable obi IiIUn Min MaX deb2 cpi exp S:C 138 138 138 138 138 103.7262 62.67557 3476.77 4.400652 20.24614 Std Dev 3.818671 51.14656 2815.1158 2.3272115 4.683127 85.6 15.1113 230.8273 1.7 11 112.8 450.64 12321 11.4 33.064 inf inLrate jobl pop sav 138 138 138 138 138 106.5445 104.62119 5.128305 101.741 32.17667 11.650208 4.657726 3.034508 8618348 11.411318 118.211 75.4 6608586 98.52 3.33 181.817 118 12.33 105.32 53.2 open 138 154.21172 106.1203 45.37037 444.1341 Ph\ll\lC 8: Ma trf,n hi s6 tU'ong quan gdp deb dab2 cpi exp gdp 1.0000 dab -0.0072 0.11331 1.0000 deb2 -0.0782 0.3621 0.4594 0.0000 1.0000 cpi 0.08l1li 0.2943 0.1476 0.0841 0.6567 0.0000 1.0000 exp -0.0044 -0.1028 -0.3135 0.9594 0.2301 0.0002 -0.3708 0.0000 1.0000 inf -0.11711 0.0273 0.5537 -0.0874 -0.3135 0.0000 0.3083 0.0002 -0.0170 0.84211 inLrate 0.1794 0.0352 jobl -0.1430 0.0943 sav -0.1166 0.1734 1.0000 -0.0431 -0.0080 -0.1301 -0.3531 0.6159 0.9256 0.1283 0.0000 0.21174 -0.0612 -0.5176 0.0004 0.4760 0.0000 0.0561 -0.20111 0.5137 0.0138 inf inLrate -0.0102 0.11052 1.0000 0.3565 -0.0155 0.0000 0.8565 0.3051 0.0003 0.7587 -0.1541 -0.4135 0.0000 0.0712 0.0000 -0.0313 0.7155 open -0.0116 0.8926 0.1679 0.04!1O 0.7007 0.0000 0.11162 -0.2124 -0.2871 -0.1510 0.0000 0.0124 0.0006 0.0770 pop -0.1860 0.0290 0.1630 0.0561 0.2!159 0.0004 0.4240 -0.1951 0.0000 0.0218 jobl sav open jobl 1.0000 sav -0.7508 0.0000 1.0000 open -0.4992 0.0000 0.7537 0.0000 1.0000 pop 0.0489 0.5693 0.2647 0.0017 0.4167 0.0000 pop 1.0000 Trang 92 -0.03811 0.6507 0.0155 0.8566 Ph\ll\lC 9: KSt qua kiSm tra da c{)ng tuySn rno hinh variabl VIF l/VIF epi op.n sav d.b2 jobl d.b 1nf pop inLrat .xp 8.74 8.22 4.83 3.38 3.09 2.76 2.57 1.48 1.47 1.45 0.114362 0.121655 0.207201 0.295798 0.323806 0.362124 0.389565 0.675903 0.681250 0.690402 Mean VIF 3.80 Ph\ll\lC 10: KSt qua U'cYC hrQ1lg rno hinh v6i phU'O'I1g phap GMM Number of instruments - 132 Number of obs Number of groups System dynamic panel-data estimation Group variable: id Time variable: time obs per group: , avg '" max , wald chi2(9) prob > chi2 142 113.10 0.0000 One-step results gdp coef gdp L1 22 22 22 [95" conf Interval] Std Err z P>lzl 1098566 0644477 1.70 0.088 -.0164585 2361718 deb L1 .0162135 0086949 1.86 0.062 -.0008282 0332551 cpi 2288878 3301119 0.69 0.488 -.4181196 8758953 exp 01 -.5478393 1201002 -4.56 0.000 -.7832313 -.3124472 inf -.2214891 0422609 -5.24 0.000 -.3043189 -.1386594 int_rate 01 .0464611 0424449 1.09 0.274 -.0367295 1296517 jobl 01 -1 393648 2939514 -4.74 0.000 -1.969782 -.8175135 pop 01 -.0179138 4558449 -0.04 0.969 -.9113533 8755258 sav _cons -.1198985 117.6288 0723218 8.649959 -1.66 13.60 0.097 0.000 -.2616466 100.6752 0218495 134.5824 Instruments for differenced equation GMM-type: L(2/.).gdp standard: Lo.gdp Lo.deb o.cpi 02.exp o.inf 02.int-rate 02.jobl 02.pop O.sav Instruments for level equation GMM-type: LO.gdp standard: _cons Trang 93 Pb\ll\lc 11: K~t qua U'crc lU'qng rna binb vOi pbU'ong pbap GMM va bi~n DEBT2 SYSteM dyn 1c panel-data ast1 t1on Group var1aula: 1d T1.a var1abla: t1 132 Nu.bar 0' obs Nu.bar 0' llroups obs par IlrouP: 1n • aVIl • 22 22 22 II&X • Nu.bar of 1nstl'UlHnu • wald chi2(1O) prob > chi2 142 ona-stap rasults 110.90 0.0000 std Err z p>lzl 1102353 0653622 1.69 0.092 -.0178722 2383427 0313167 0096696 3.24 0.001 OU3647 0502688 -.0003048 0001699 -1.79 0.073 -.0006378 0000283 0294873 2688416 0.11 0.913 -.4974325 5564072 axp 01 -.5634207 U75831 -4.42 0.000 -.813479 -.3133624 in' -.2498106 047582 -5.25 0.000 -.3430695 -.1565517 int.-rata 01 .0513405 0450786 1.14 0.255 -.0370U 1396929 jobl 01 -1.378794 3003875 -4.59 0.000 -1.967543 -.7900456 pop 01 -.030635 4655104 -0.07 0.948 -.'430187 8817487 saY 01 -.0066645 U67189 -0.05 0.958 -.2551858 2418568 _cons 117.7064 8.784756 13.40 0.000 100.4886 134.'242 IIdp coa' IIdp Ll dab Ll dab2 Ll cp1 [95" Con' :a:ntarval] :a:nstru.ants 'or d1"arancad aquat10n GMM-typa: L(2/.).lIdp Standard: LD.dab Lo.dab2 o.cp1 02.axp O.1n' 02.1nt.-rata 02.jobl 02.pop 02.sav :a:nstru nu for laval aquat10n GMM-typa: Lo.gdp Standard: _CORS Pb\ll\lC 12: Kit qua kiSrn djnb tU'O'ng quan cbu6i pbU'O'ng pbap GMM Arallano-Bond tast for zaro autocorralat10n in firlt-d1ffarancad arrors order z prob > z -.18919 0.8499 -1.83' 0.065' HO: no autocorralat1on Trang 94 \ TIHJONG D~I HQC MO TP, HCM HOI DONG CHAM LU~N VAN TH~C si CQNG HOA XA HOI CHi; NGHiA VIET NAM DQc Hip - Tn' - Hanh phlie Tp H6 Chi Minh, 24 thcmg 10 nam 2014 BIEN BAN CIIAM HOI BONG LuAN VAN THAC 81 CHUYEN NGANH KINH TE HOC - " " & Can cu QuySt dinh sd 951 IQD-DHM, 09 thang nam 2014 clla Hi~u tru6ng TruOng D~i h9C Mer Thanh phd H6 Chi Minh vS vi~c l?p HQi d6ng chdm lu~ van th~c S1 nganh Kinh t~ h9C, HQi dang da ti~n M.nh chdm lu?n vim th~c S1 cho cac h9C vien cao h9C chuyen nganh Kinh tS h9C vao 24 thimg 10 nam 2014, t~i Phong 505,97 Vo Van Tl1n, P.6, Q.3, Tp HCM HQc vien: LU~N VAN Nq cong va tang truang cac qUDe gia HO TEN Nguy~n Thi Hang Phuac Dong Nam A GVHD TS Tran Anh Tuan i ~ -~ ~ II Thanh vien hQi dang ehdm: vien - Chu tich H9i dang; PGS TS Nguy€ n Thufu! - Phan bi~n 1: TS Nguy~n Quang Trung - Phan bi~n 2: TS Le Thi Thanh Loan - Oy vien: PGS.TS Nguy€ n Minh Duc - Tim ky: TS Nguy€ n Vat: Gillp f " b).110 K et t h'uc b UOI Vf( A A Iu::;tn van ngl:1y l f ;t~ h , p h'leu '" S au kh'':' tong k et cac Ul:1n ¥ A gia lu?n van th~c sy, HQi dang da thdng nhdt cac k& qua danh gia lu?n van cho cac h9C vien C\l th~ nhu sau: III KBt qua danh gia lu,n van: IV YKiin eiia hQi dang _t': t :.: .::- ~ ~ o.-e ~ ~ -rJ "' ( I ' :~ t.~ ~ .~ .Q()~ :~ s:;:!t: (Jx~.~ :: rw , \ r r·, 'n, J >' I' /ar;O :I.'!.:'d ~, ;c.Y:?\ ~ ••• Mt\II ~J ~ :.~ ,,_ '-I r , , S:-t'Nvlo· , ,., , ~ ~ • • • • • • • ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ,";0 ~ w " ~ ~ , ~ ~"" • • " • • " " " " " " " " " ~ c V T ~ n THU'KY CHU TICH ~~ ~- PGS TS Nguy~n Thu~n TS Nguy~n van Giap HQTEN Phan bi~n TS Nguy~n Quang Trung Phim bi~n 2: TS Le Thi Thanh Loan Tly Vien: PGS.TS Nguy8n Minh Due *Can be) Id@m tra ~ I .l1L~ I (L_-" -~ :~5~ ;-; -: · '\ I/ oBi ehi~u cae phi~u di~m ky ten xac nh~n: TONG LIEN f.)OAN LAO DQNG VIETNAM TRU'ONG D~I HQC MO'TP.HCM C()NG HOA xli H()] CHU NGHIA VIETNAM D~k I?,p - 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It"'/ e!utL; y~ !Vail? ~ rJ~ ./}-;e I.ti:r1 jk: tz:f-[...]... gay anh hu6ng den n€n kinh t€ trong khu V\1'C Dong Nam A (10 cu ... n8n kinh t8 IOn nhAt Dong Nam A, co muc tang truang kinh te nam 20 12 d~t 6,2%, tri muc tang tren 6% ba nam qua Kinh t8 Philipines tang tfUang 6,6% nam 2012 cao hon nhi8u so v6i muc 3,9% cua nam. .. de> gia tang dan s6 Asean trung binh h~ng nam 1,74% T6c de> gia tang co xu huang giam til 2000 d~n 2012 ph fin Ian cac qu6c gia ap dl,mg chinh sach giam ty 1~ sinh Trang 33 Singapore hl qu6c gia. .. qu6e gia Asean giai dolJ.I1 1990-2012 31 Hinh 3.5 Ti~t ki~m cae qu6e gia Asean giai d0lJ.I11990 -2012 31 Hinh 3.6 Chi s6 tham nhOOg cae qu6e gia Asean giai d01J.I11990-2012 32 Hinh 3.7 T6e dQ gia