Ngoai ra, phuong phap nay hien chua dugc sir dung rong rai vi qua tnnh tinh toan phuc tap va khong cho phep xu ly so lieu ma or do so ngay dieu tra tai cac diem nghe khong dong nhat Tron
Trang 1KHOA HOC CONG NGHE
HOAIM THIEIXl PHUOIMG P H A P X U L V S O L IE U V A
X A Y D UN G B A N G TIIMH K IC H TH U O C Q U A N T H E V A
M A T DO V U O N T U D U L IE U D IE U T R A Q U A T IE N G HOT
Vu Tien Thinh1 TOM TAT
Vuon la m ot tro n g nhung nhom linh truon g dac biet quy hiem va la doi tu on g can d u o c thuong xuyt n inam
sat T uy nhien, phuong phap uoc luong kich th u oc quan th e ch o nhom loai nay hien ch ua ducn.' hoan thien.
T ro n g bai viet, ca c co n g thuc uoc luong kich th u oc quan the va sai so tu on g ung tro n g mx: luimg d u o c de
xuat C ac b an g tinh se tu dong thuc hien viec uo'c luong m at do va kich th u o c quan th e kern th eo phuong
sai va u(k' luong k hoan g voi do tin cay 95% Ngoai ra, c a c bang tinh co n giup nguoi dieu tra \ uun c o th e linh
hoat tro n g viec thiet ke c a c ch u o n g tn n h dieu tra thuc dia P hu on g phap x u ly so lieu va b ang tinh co the
d uoc su dung ch o ca c cu o c dieu tra m a tro n g do so ngay dieu tra tai c a c diem n ghe bien dong X a c suat hot
cu a Vuon tro n g m ot ngay duoc tinh toan theo 3 phuong phap k h ac nhau Ket qua kiem tra ch o thay cac
b ang tinh nay co do chinh x a c ca o , kha nang u ng dung tro n g th u c te Ion Tai lieu h uon g dan su dung da
d uoc xay dung bang c a tieng Viet va tieng Anh nham dap ung nhu cau c u a nguoi sir d ung o Viet Nam noi
rieng va ca c quoc gia co Vuon noi ch un g.
Tir kh6a: Hylobatidae, kich thircrc quan the, tieng hot, ltoc luong, Vuon.
1 BAT VAN BE
Vuon la mot trong nhung nhom linh truong dac
biet quy hiem va bj de doa cao Cho den nay da co 17
loai Vuon dirge ghi nhan tren the gioi CT Viet Nam, 6
loai Vugn da dugc ghi nhan, trong do dac biet co loai
Vugn ma vang phia B ic moi dirge mo ta la loai mdi
(Van Ngoc Thjnh et al., 2010) Tuy nhien, thong tin
v£ tinh trang cua da so cac loai Vugn va bien dong
kich thuoc quan the cua chung con thieu Do vay,
nhu cau v£ dieu tra va giam sat cac loai Vugn hien
nay la rat Ion
Vugn la nhom loai co tap tinh phat ra tieng keu
rat to va rat xa vao sang som nen co the dk dang
dugc phat hien tu khoang cach rat xa (Geissman,
1993; Geissmann va Orgelginger, 2000) Trong dieu
tra va giam sat Vugn, phuong phap dieu tra tai cac
diem nghe thuong dugc su dung (Brockelman va Ali,
1987) Tuy nhien, cac dan Vugn thuong khong keu
trong tat ca cac ngay dieu tra Do vay so dan Vugn
ghi nhan dugc se nho hon so vcri so dan Vugn co mat
a khu vuc nghien cuu (vi du: Phan Channa va Tom
Gray, 2009)
Ve mat ly thuyet, neu muon phat hien het so
luong dan Vugn tai cac diem nghe can so ngay dieu
tra rat Ion Tuy nhien, gioi han ve thoi gian va tai
chinh khong cho phep to chuc cac cuoc dieu tra keo
dai Vi the, de uoc luong chinh xac mat do va kich
thuoc quan the cho cac loai Vuon mot so tac gia da
Truong Dai hpc Lam nghiep
sir dung he so hieu chinh Giang et al., 2006) So dan Vugn thgc te co mat tai khu vuc quan tam la so dan Vugn ghi nhan duoc chia cho he so hieu chinh (P)
He so hieu chinh thuc chat la ti le so dan duoc phat hien so voi so dan thuc tel co mat trong khu vuc dieu tra So dan Vugn thuc te co mat tai khu vuc quan tam
la so dan Vugn ghi nhan duoc chia cho he so hieu chinh (P) He so hieu chinh la xac suat phat hien ra mot dan Vugn tai khu vuc quan tam trong thoi gian dieu tra voi gia thiet la dan Vugn do ch ic chin co mat cr do
Tuy vay, phuong phap su dung he so hieu chinh hien nay chua dugc hoan thien, chua co phuong phap uoc lugng sai so Ngoai ra, phuong phap nay hien chua dugc sir dung rong rai vi qua tnnh tinh toan phuc tap va khong cho phep xu ly so lieu ma or
do so ngay dieu tra tai cac diem nghe khong dong nhat Trong dieu tra dong vat hoang da, dieu nay rat
d i xay ra do di£u kien thoi tiet khong thuan loi va
khu vuc dieu tra xa xoi, heo lanh Vi the, de dap ung nhu ciu ve giam sat quan the cac loai Vuon, viec
hoan thien cac phuong phap xu ly so lieu va cung cap
cong cu tinh toan kich thuoc quan the Vuon mpt
cach tu dong la vo cung can thiet
l m e nup N o r t o n
2.1 Hoan tibi^n phuong phAp xu ^ 96 bfti v i xiy dung bang tinh
Bang tinh dugc xay dung trtn phin mem ExceL Cac cong thuc uoc lugng va bang tinh dupe xay dyng theo cac buoc sau:
Trang 2KHOA HOC CONG NGHE
(1) Uac lugng xac suat hot trong mot ngay
Xac suat hot trong mot ngay cua mot dan Vuon
duoc uoc lugng theo 3 phirong phap chu yeu sau day:
- Uoc lugng xac suat hot trong mot ngay dua vao
so lieu theo doi cac dan Vuon trong mot thoi gian
dai
- Uoc luong xac suat hot: su dung so lieu thu
thap tu cac diem nghe duoc dieu tra 3 lan
- Uoc luong xac suat hot: stir dung so lieu thu
thap tir cac diem nghe duoc di£u tra 2 lan
(2) Uac luong he so hieu chinh cho tung lop so
lieu (worksheet)
M6i worksheet bao gom so lieu cua cac diem
nghe co cung so ngay dieu tra (vi du worksheet 2
ngay, worksheet 3 ngay ) So lieu tir cac diem nghe
co so ngay dieu tra giong nhau se duoc goi la mot lop
so lieu Mat do va kich thuoc quan the cua Vuon se
duoc tinh toan cho tung lop so lieu, sau do tong hop
cho tat ca cac diem nghe a cac lop khac nhau
(3) Uac luong so dan trung binh dupe phat hien
tai mot diem nghe (chua ap dung he so hieu chinh)
cho timg lop so lieu
(4) Uac lupng so dan trung binh dupe phat hien
t^ii mot diem nghe sau khi da ap dung he so hieu
chinh cho timg lap so lieu
(5) Uac luang tong so dan cho timg lop so lieu
(worksheet)
(6) Uac lupng mat do dan
(7) Uac luang tong so dan trong dien tich nghe
th£y
(8) Uac lupng tong so dan trong khu vuc quan
tam (Vuon quoc gia, khu bao ton thien nhien, v.v )
(9) Uac lupng tong so ca the trong khu vuc quan
tam
Cac cong thuc tinh phuong sai dupe phat trien
dua tren phuong phap Delta
2.2 Ki&n tra dQ chinh xac cua being tinh bang so
li$u md phdng
B£ kiem tra d§ chinh x&c cua bang tinh, de tai su
dung s6 lieu dug«c m6 phong trong phan mem Excel.
Cic tham s6 lifen quan dugc cho truoc.
Gii thi£t c6 200 din Vupn trong m6t khu bao ton
thidn nhien D $n tich cua khu bio tdn thien nhien
d6 li 500 km2 Nguta d£u tra c6 th£ nghe ti&ig hot
cua Vuon cach xa 2 km Moi dan Vuon co xac suat hot trong mot ngay la 0.4 Tuong ung voi moi dan Vupn va ngay dieu tra thu l, mot so ngau nhien tu 0 den 1 se dupe tao ra bang ham RANDO- Dan nao co
so ngau nhien tuong ung nho hem 0,4 se dupe coi la dupe nghe thay trong ngay dieu tra thu l So lieu mo phong dupe dua vao bang tinh de so sanh ket qua tinh toan voi so lupng dan thuc te sir dung khi mo phong
Bang tinh va huong dan sir dung co the dupe download tu website cua Vien Sinh thai rung va Moi truong (http://ifee.edu.vn/)
3 KET QUA NGHEN CUU 3.1 X iy dung cac cong thuc uac lupng
3.1.1 Uac lirong xac suat hot trong m ot ngay
Cac cong thirc dung de uoc lupng xac suat hot trong mot ngay dupe xay dung cho 3 phuong phap:
- Phuong phap 1: Uac lupng xac suat hot trong mot ngay dua vao so lieu theo doi cac dan Vupn trong mot thoi gian dai
1 ? ^
P i
S2( p l ) = p l ( l - p l )
pi: Xac suat hot; n: So dan Vupn duoc theo doi; hj: So ngay ma dan Vupn thu i dupe phat hifen co hot; d,: So ngay ma dan Vupn thu i dupe theo doi; S2(pl): Phuong sai cua pi
- Phuong phap 2: Uac luang xac suat hot bang phuong phap su dung so lieu thu thap tir cac diem nghe dupe dieu tra 3 lan
p i =
S2( p l ) = p l ( l - p l )
pi: Xac suat hot; n: So lupng dan trung binh hot dupe trong mot ngay tai tat ca cac dilm nghe; N: So lupng dan phat hi£n trong ca 3 ngay tai tit ca cac diem nghe; S2(pl): Phuong sai cua pi.
- Phuong phap 3: Uoc lugng xac suit h6t bang
phuong phap su dung so li£u thu thip tu c ic di&n nghe duoc dieu tra 2 lin.
N
p i = 2
Trang 3KHOA HOC CONG NGHE
s2( P i ) = P i ( l - p i )
N
pi: Xac suat hot; n: So lirong clan trung binh phat
hien dime trong mot ngay tai tat ca cac diem nghe;
N: So lirong dan phat hien trong ca 2 ngay tai tat ca
cac diem nghe; S -(p l): Phuong sai cua pi
3.1.2 Uoc luang h e so hieu chm h ch o tim g lop
so lieu ( w orksheet)
Cac cong thuc iroc luong diem va phuong sai
dugc xay dung nhu sau:
P = 1 - ( 1 - p i ) 1'
S Z ( P ) = { [ 1 ( 1 p l ) k]')".s^(pl)
S2 (P) = k 2 ( l - p l ) 2(k" 1>.Sz ( p l )
Cong thuc tinh phuong sai cua P - S2(P) dugc
phat trien bang phuong phap Delta:
p i: Xac suat hot trong mot ngay; P: He so hieu
chinh; k: So ngay dieu tra; S 2(p l): Phuong sai cua p i;
S 2(P): Phuong sai cua P
3.1.3 Uac luang so dan trung binh duoc phat
hien tai m ot diem nghe cho tung lop so lieu (chua ap
dung he so hieu chinh)
Cac cong thuc uac lugng diem dugc xay dung
nhu sau:
2 1 “ i
m —
-y
Phuong sai cua m-Var(m) dugc tinh bang cong
thuc co sin trong Excel
m: So dan trung binh dugc phat hien tai mot
diem nghe khi chua ap dung he so hieu chinh; n,: So
dan phat hien tai diem nghe j trong ca dgt dieu tra; y:
So lugng diem nghe
3.1.4 Uoc luang so dan trung binh duoc phat
hien tai m ot diem nghe sau kh i da ap dung h e so
hieu chinh cho tung lop so lieu
Cac cong thuc uac lugng di£m va phuong sai
duoc xay dung nhu sau:
P
SZ(M ) = S 2 (m ) m
P z
m: So dan trung binh duoc phat hien tai mot
diem nghe khi chua ap dung he so hieu chinh; P: He
so hieu chinh; M: So dan trung binh duoc phat hien
tai mot diem nghe khi da ap dung hr hn-u chinh:
S J (m): Phuong sai cua m: S (M j: Phin mg -*t] cua M
(w orksheet)
Cac cong thuc uoc lirong diem va phuong sai dugc xay dung nhu sau:
T = M y
S 2 (T ) = M y 2 y: So lugng diem nghe trong w orksheet; M: So dan trung binh dugc phat hien tai mot diem nghe khi
da ap dung he so hieu chinh; T: Tong so dan duoc uoc lugng tu w orksheet; S J (T): Phu<mg sai cua T
Gia trj nay co the Ion hon so dan thuc te boi vi mot so diem nghe co the chong lan len nhau, do vay mot so dan dugc ghi nhan tu nhieu hon mot diem nghe
Sau khi T dugc uac lugng cho tung lap so lieu (worksheet), cac uac lugng tu cac worksheet dugc cong don de tinh cac tham so cho toan cuoc dieu tra trong worksheet “Summary output”
3.1.6 Uoc luang mat do dan cho toan bo cac lop
so lieu
Cac cong thuc uac lugng diem va phuong sai dugc xay dung nhu sau:
D = S f T ,
2 5 A,
z ; S ’ (TO
s ( n ) =
1 J 0 5 a , ) *
D: Mat do dan (dan/km2); i:So ngay di£u tra, i chay tir 1 d£n 5; Ti: Tong so dan tir lop so lieu i; Ai: Tong dien tich dieu tra a lap so lieu i (km2); S2(D): Phuong sai cua D; S2(Ti): Phuong sai cua Ti.
3.1.7 Uoc luong tong so dan trong dien tich nghe thay
Cac cong thuc uoc luong diem va phuong sai duoc xay dung nhu sau:
Tt = D.Aj
S2(Tt ) = As 2.S2(D)
Tt : Tong so dan trong di£n tich di£u tra; Di£n tich dieu tra trong d6 vung ch6ng Ufa chi dupe tinh 1 lan; D: Mat dQ dan; S2(Tt): Phuong sai cuaTT
Trang 4KHOA HQC CONG NGHE
3.1.8 [fin.' luong tong so dan trong khu vuc quan
tam: Vmm quoc gia, khu bao ton thien nhien, v.v
N c = D A H
S Z ( N C ) = A h z S 2 ( D )
N(,: Tong so dan trong khu virc quan tam;
AM:Dien tich sinh canh cua Vugn trong khu virc quan
tam; D: Mat do dan; S2(N(,): Phuong sai cua NG
3.1.9 Uoc luong tdng so ca the trong khu vuc
quan tam
Cac cong thuc uoc luong diem va phuong sai
duoc xay dung nhu sau:
N , = s N c
S 2 ( N i ) = s 2 S z ( N c )
Ng: Tong so dan trong khu vuc quan tam; N|i
Tong so ca the trong khu vuc quan tam; s: Kich
thuac dan; S2(N[): Phuong sai cua N,
Ba bang tinh da dmrc xay clinig tirtmg inig v<n <•:; phuong phap uoc luong xac suat phat hien trong mot ngay
3.2 Kiem tra do chinh xac cua bang tinh bang so li6u mo phong
So lieu mo phong dugc su dung de kiem tra do chinh xac cua bang tinh Bang tinh dugc kiem tra la bang tinh su dung phuong phap uoc luong xac suat phat hien voi so lieu thu thap tu cac diem nghe duoc dieu tra 3 lan
Gia thiet cac diem nghe khong chong lan, tong dien tich cua 20 diem nghe la 25,12 km ’ Nhu vay so luong dan Vuon nim trong pham vi nghe thay tu cac diem nghe la 200x251,2/500 = 100,48 dan tai mo phong su kien phat hien cac dan Vuon voi gia thiet
co 100 dan trong pham vi nghe thay So lieu mo phong dugc the hien trong bang 1
Bang 1 So li6u di<hi tra mo phong STT
dan
2
Ngay 3
STT dan
Ngay 1
Ngay 2
Ngay 3
STT dan
Ngay 1 Ngay 2 Ngay 3
1 = dan Vuon duoc phat hi€n qua tig'nghot
Trang 5KHOA HOC CONG NGHl
Bang 1 cho thay ket qua tong hop tu tat ca cac
diem di£u tra, a ngay dau co 39 dan Vuon dugc
phat hien qua tieng hot (J ngay thu 2 co 42 dan
Vugn dugc nghe thay, tuy nhien chi co 23 dan la
lan dau dugc phat hien Nhu vay neu moi diem
nghe chi dugc dieu tra 2 ngay thi co 62 dan Vugn
dugc phat hien Trong ngay dieu tra thu 3 co 38
Bang 3 Cic th
dan Vugn dugc nghe thay, trong do co 18 dan la moi Vay tong so co 80 dan Vugn dugc phat hien ne-u m6i diem dugc dieu tra trong 3 ngay Tuy nhien thuc te co 100 dan Vugn cu tru trong di(*n tich nghe thay tir cac diem nghe 20 dan Vugn da khong hot trong ca 3 ngay dieu tra va do do chung khong dugc phat hien
i s 6 u6c lugng
’»i
20
t 5 (Myk pom t strata
I s t M M t e d g r o u p *
\ / a r
F a t k n a t o d g r o u p * * In 4 ( l u y u p o a l s t r a t a
V »r
C stnwtM groups « 3 day* post strata
v a r
Estknnlod grotaps tn 2 dny» post strata
o o o o o
104
75 1M4
o o o o o
0.0000
E s t o n a t a O g r o u p s m 1 d a y s p o s t s t r a t a
TotM srsa c o v *r*a t>v ■stsnarxi posts ikm 3)
V «r<0 )
se co)
L C I < D >
U C I ( P )
Surveyed area (km2)
V / a r
s e ( T T )
L O ( T T )
uq (
»' I MM g M E
Ket qua uac lugng cac tham so bang phuong bang tinh va khong su dung he so hieu chinh, mat phap khong su dung bang tinh va phuong phap sir do va kich thuac quan the Vugn ucrc lugng dugc dung bang tinh dugc the hien a bang 3 va 4 Voi se nho hern thuc te rat nhieu (160 so vdri 200) K£t tat ca cac tham so, ket qua uac lugng bang bang qua so sanh a bang 4 da the hien do chinh xac tinh deu gan voi so li£u dung de mo phong Sai so cao cua bang tinh, qua do cho thay cac cong thuc giua ket qua uac lugng bang bang tinh so vcri so dugc dua ra va cac thuat toan lap trong bang tinh lieu mo phong la nho hon 5% Neu khong su dung la chinh xac.
Tham so So lieu dung mo phong Khong sir dung bang tinh Su dung bang tinh Xac suat phat hien trong mot
2-242,26)
Trang 6KHOA HOC CONG NGHt
4 NET LUAN
- Cac cong thirc uoc lugng xac suat phat hien,
mat do va kich thiroc quan the dirge xay dung cho 3
phuong phap khac nhau, bao gom: (1) phuong phap
sir dung so lieu theo dOi cac dan Vugn trong mot thoi
gian dai; (2) phuong phap sir dung so lieu tir tat ca
cac diem nghe dugc dieu tra tir 3 ngay tro len; (3)
phuong phap sir dung so lieu tir tat ca cac diem nghe
duoc dieu tra tir 2 ngay trcr len
- Ba bang tinh da dugc xay dung nham tu dong
hoa qua trinh tinh toan mat do va kich thudc quan
the cho cac loai Vugn Cac bang tinh con giup nguoi
dieu tra Vugn co the linh hoat trong viec thiet ke cac
chuong trinh dieu tra thuc dia Phuong phap xir ly so
lieu va bang tinh co the dugc su dung cho cac cuoc
dieu tra ma trong do so ngay dieu tra tai cac diem
nghe bien dong
- Kiem tra do chinh xac cua bang tinh bang so
lieu mo phong cho thay sai so giua ket qua uoc luong
bang bang tinh so voi so lieu mo phong nho hon 5%
- Tai lieu huong din sir dung da dugc xay dung
bang ca tieng Viet va tieng Anh nhSm dap ung nhu
cau cua nguoi su dung a Viet Nam noi rieng va cac
quoc gia co Vugn noi chung
1 Brockelman, W Y and Ali R , 1987 Methods of
surveying and sampling forest primate populations
pp 23-62 in: Marsh, C \V and Mittmm-ier R A eels Primate Conservation in thi* Tropical Rain forest Alan
R Uss, Inc, New York
2 Geissmann, T., 1993 Evolution of communication in gibbons (Hylobatidae) Ph I), dissertation, Anthropological Institute, Phil Fac II, Zurich University
3 Geissmann, T & Orgeldinger, M., 2000 The relationship between duet songs and pair bonds in siamangs, Hylobates syndactylus Animal Behavior 60,805-809
4 Jiang X L., Luo Z H and Zhao S Y., 2006 Status and distribution patterns of black crested gibbon (Nomascus concolor jingdongensis) in Wulian Mountains, Yunnan, China: implications for conservation Primates 47: 264-271
5 Phan Channa and Tom Gray, 2009 The status and habitat of Yellow-cheeked Crested in Phnom Prich Wildlife Sanctuary, Mondulkiri WWF Greater Mekong - Cambodia country program
6 Van Ngoc Thinh, Mootnick A R., Vu Ngoc Thanh, Nadler T and Roos C., 2010 A new species
of crested gibbon, from the central Annamite mountain range Vietnamese Journal of Primatology Vol 1 No 4
ESTABLISHING DATA ANALYSIS METHOD AND BUILDING AUTOMATED PACKAGE FOR
CALCULATING GIBBON POPULATION SIZE AND DENSITY FROM AUDITORY SURVEYS
Vu Tien Thinh1
1 Vietnam Forestry University
Summary
Gibbons are one of the most threatened families of primate Therefore, there is a great need and desire to determine and monitor their status However, the method for gibbon survey data analysis currently used does not fully meet pratical demands In this paper, mathematical formulations for calculating gibbon population size, density and associated error are developed These sheets provide gibbon surveyors with automatic unbiased estimates of gibbon population density and size plus variance, and 95% confidence intervals Additionally, these sheets provide surveyors with flexibility in designing their field surveys by allowing for varying numbers of survey days by post and by allowing three different approaches for determining calling probability Using simulated data, the package showed high accuracy and applicability
in practical cases Manuals were written in both Vietnamese and English to meet the needs of users in Vietnam in particular and other nations home to gibbons in general
Keywords: Biodiversity, biostatistics; gibbon, hylobatidae, nomascus.
Ngudi phin bi^n: PGS.TS Nguyln L&n Hung Son
Ngiy nh$n bii: 28/3/2014
Ngiy th6ng qua phin bifcn: 28/4/2014
Ngiy duy^t ding: 5/5/2014