NGHIEN cufu - TRAO DOI llll NGHIEN cufu THifC NGHIEM VE HIEU NANG CUA GAC CHI NHANH NGAN HANG THtfOlNG MAI NHA NtfOfC TAI THANH PHO HO CHI MINH TS. TriTPng Quang Thong DH Kinh te TP. HCM "•^^ ^fgdnh ngdn hdng co mot vi the ddc hiet quan trong trong mdi quan he vdi cdc M^^L M nganh khde. Ly ludn vd thUc tien dd minh chUng rdng, thdnh cong cua cdc M ^^^ hoat dQng kinh te phdi dUa tren mot he thong ngdn hdng hoat dong co hieu ^" W ndng (thudng dUcfc do lUdng hdng gid cd - ldi sudt cho vay hinh qudn, ldi sudt huy dong hinh qudn, cdc he so Itfi nhuan). Mot trong nhUng muc tieu chinh cua cua cdc chinh sdch kinh te d tdm quoc gia Id tim kiem mgt cdu trdc cua ngdn hdng sao cho no CO khd ndng cung Ung cdc dich vu tdi chinh ngdn hdng, cd hieu ndng vd co khd ndng tiep can dUc/c cong chung vdi chi phi tdt nhdt. Tuy nhien, tren thUc te vdn con nhUng tranh ludn ve hieu ndng cua he thdng ngdn hdng, thUdng gdn vdi mUc do canh tranh cao vd tinh hen vUng trong cdu true hoat dgng cua no. Tinh hen vUng hdm y rdng, cdc ca quan gidm sdt ludn mong muon gidm thieu nguy ca phd sdn cua ngdn hdng vd mot muc tieu nhu the co ve thich hap vdi cdc cdu true ngdn hdng dgc quyen, nhU trUdng hap cda he thdng ngdn hdng Vi^t Nam hien nay. Do do, ndy sinh sU cdn thiet phdi nghien cUu cdu true, hdnh vi, hieu ndng hoat dgng cua cdc ngdn hdng vd mdi quan he qua lai giUa cdc bien trong linh vUc ngdn hdng. Cong nghe ngan hang rri So 61 "Thane 04/2011 ••• So 61 "Thang 04/2011 Ill NGHIEN cufu - TRAO DOI Muc tieu cua bai viet Muc tieu cua bai viet la, trong cac tiep can cua md hinh S-C-P, phan tich eac nhan to' anh hudng den hieu ning cua nhdm cae ehi nhanh ngan hang thUPng mai (NHTM) nha nUdc de td do cd nhdng gpi y ve chinh sich phu hpp. Doi ttfpng va pham vi nghien cufu Ddi tupng nghien cdu la nhdm cic chi nhinh NHTM nha nUdc tai Tp. Hd Chi Minh (bao gdm ca VCB va Vietinbank, du hai ngan hang nay da cd phan hda mpt phan nhung sd hdu nha nude vin chiem da so). Pham vi thdi gian nghien cdu la giai doan 1999-2009. Do viec kiem nghiem md hinh S-C-P doi hdi mpt bp dd lieu khi ldn, vdi nhieu bien khic nhau, ma nhdm nghien edu hoan toin khdng the tiep can dUpc. Vdi ly do khich quan tren, viec ap dung md hinh S-C-P chi cd the thUc hien trong pham vi he thdng chi nhinh NHTM nha nUdc tai Tp. Hd Chi Minh, ncfi ma nhdm cd nhdng dieu kien de dang trong viec tiep can cic dd lieu thd cap. Ve phUcfng dien thUc te, Tp. Hd Chi Minh la mpt trung tam kinh te - tai chinh hang dau da't nudc, cd mdc dp tap trung va cUdng dp canh tranh gida cac dinh che tii chinh - ngan hing dupc dinh gii d mdc dp rat cao. PhriPng phap nghien ciitu De tai ap dung cac phUcfng phap dinh lupng trong kinh te' bao gdm thdng ke va kinh te lUpng. Co sof ly thuyet khic biet trong hanh vi cua cac doanh nghiep (Conduct) ve cic phUUng dien chien lUpc gii ca, chien lupe dau tU, cac hinh thdc lien ket, hpp tic va tic dpng ciia ca'u true - hanh vi den hieu nang hoat dpng (Performance) ciia cae doanh nghiep. NgUdi cd vai trd sing lap nen ly thuyet ve kinh te cdng nghiep chinh la A. Marshall. Marshall da phan tich nhdng giai doan phit trien cua cdng nghiep vi phac hpa len mpt khung phan tich phdi hpp gida phan tich md ta va cic tiep can ly thuyet (Gilbert, 1984). NhUng den cudi nam 1930, thi mpt khung ly thuyet thdng nha't ve kinh te cdng nghiep mdi dupc E. Mason de ra. Khdng nhU ly thuyet kinh te vi md truyen thdng vdi cae khai niem qua trdu tUpng, kho Ude lupng va giai thich cic hien tUpng thUc te, Mason da de xua't nen tang eua mpt md hinh giai thich cic quan he gida ca'u true thi trudng va hinh vi cic doanh nghiep va cic hieu nang cd the cd ciia nd (Gilbert, 1984). Theo ly thuyet canh tranh hoan hao, of can bang, tat ca cac doanh nghiep nhan dupc mpt ty suit lpi nhuan nhU sau, du dUdi bat ky boat dpng nao. Dieu nay mau thuan vdi nhdng gi xay ra trong thUc te, hieu qua boat dpng cua cic doanh nghiep rat khac nhau tuy theo tdng linh vUc san xua't kinh doanh. Mpt each tdng quit trong nen kinh te, cic nha san xua't phai quyet dinh sao cho cac ngudn lUc khdng bi ling phi va hieu nang boat dpng phai cao. Td do, van de quan trpng la chung ta phai nhan dien cac nhan to' xic dinh hieu nang ciia doanh nghiep va xay dUng cic ly thuyet giai thich sU khic biet ve hieu nang cua cac doanh nghiep cung nhu xac dinh cic lien he gida cic bien nhan to' vi hieu nang cud'i cung. Mo hinh S-C-P (Structure-Conduct-Performance) dUa tren ly thuyet td chdc cong nghiep (Theory on Industrial Organisations).Qua dd, khi nghien cdu ca'u triic thi trUdng (Structure), ngudi ta cd khuynh hudng xem xet lieu nhdng khac biet ve ca'u triic se giai thich nhdng nganhang Cac tranh luan ban lam va nghien cdu thdc nghiem dng dung md hinh S-C-P ve phan tich mdi quan he gida ca'u true va hieu nang trong linh vUc ngan hang xua't bien va phat trien chu yeu d My. Trong khi dd, be thdng ngan hang chau Au it dupc cac nha nghien cdu quan So 61 "Thang 04/2011 NGHIEN cufu - TRAO DOI II tim trong mdt thdi gian dai vi no co tinh cdng nhac, it thay ddi va do thUdng dUpc bao hp (Freixas, Xavier, Rocher, J.C, 1998). Nhin chung, lap luan ciia cac nha nghien cdu cho ring, nganh ngan hang cung la mpt nganh kinh te nhU nhdng nganh khac, nen cic tiep can cua ly thuyet td chdc cdng nghiep cd dien, cd the dupc dng dung vao phan tich. Mac du tinh nhan qua cua chudi S-C-P con do nhdng van de ban luan, nhUng md hinh co sd ludn dupc cic nghien cdu thUc nghiem dan chieu den. Phuong trinh sau diy da dupe kiem nghiem: m P = ao+a, S + X ^kX^ + ^ k = 2 Vdi: P: la hieu nang S: la ca'u true X^: cic bien sd giai thich (explicative) khac u: sai sd Sau dd Gilbert (1984), da phit trien md hinh S-C-P thanh P = f (S, B, D, C, X) de dng dung phan tich nganh ngan hang. Trong do : P: hieu nang, thUdng dUpc do lUdng bang gia ca (lai suat cho vay binh quan, lai suit huy dpng binh quan, cic he so' lpi nhuan). S: ca'u true. Cac nghien cdu thudng sd dung bien tdng so' tien gdi de tinh chi so' tap trung va chi so' H-H. B: cac bien sd ca'u true khic, thudng la rao can nhip cudc. Viec nhip cupc cua mpt doi thu mdi se lam manh hcfn cUdng dp canh tranh cua nginh. Trong linh vUc ngan hang, cd hai y kie'n do'i nghieh nhau: (i) Cac cO quan kiem soit cho rang, can phai ban che canh tranh qui mdc, vi nhap cupc tU do se tic dpng khdng tdt den cac lpi ich chung nhU duy tri thanh khoan, quyen lpi cua chu np; (ii) Y kien khic lai tan ddng viec dd bo cac rao can nhap cupc de duy tri canh tranh. D: cau cua thi trUdng, thudng dupc do bang kich cd cua thi trUdng nhu tdng tai san hoac tdng tien gdi. D cung cd the dupc do ludng bang tang trddng cua thi trudng vi thi trUdng cang rpng, cing tang trUdng thi cang ldi keo nhieu ddi thii mdi. Tang trUdng la chi dau cho cic thay ddi ciia cac dieu kien ve cau. C: khic biet ve gia phi gida cac doanh nghiep, cd the do ludng giin tiep bang qui mo tdng tai san, xet tren phUofng dien tinh kinh te nhd qui md. Cac he so' khac cd the dUpc sd dung nhu chi phi tren nhan vien va tdng tien gdi khong ky han chia cho tdng tien gdi. He so' cudi cung nay dupe de xua't trong Udc lupng chi phi vdn, vi tien gdi khdng ky ban la mpt ngudn vdn gia re. X: bien sd kiem soit (ndi len cic tinh chuyen biet cua mpt san pham). Neu xem lai suit cho vay va lai suit huy dpng nhu nhdng bien dpc lap, da them vao cac bien dpc lap kiem soit, chang ban, hinh thdc/khd'i lupng/ky ban ciia tien gdi; tdng cho vay/tdng tai san; he so' vdn/ tdng tai san; he sd dU phdng rui ro tin dung tren tdng dU np. Trtfcfng hpp Trung Quoc Chien-Shun Chen va Hui-Tzu Shih (2004) da tien hanh nhdng nghien cdu thUc nghiem ddi vdi he thdng Ngin hang Trung Qud'c. Ddi vdi he thdng ngan hang nay, cac san pham truyen tho'ng nhu huy dpng vdn va cho vay doanh nghiep da tang trUdng manh do thi trUdng banh trUdng sau cupc khiing hoang tai chinh chau A, the hien cf mdc dp huy dpng vd'n/nhan vien va lpi nhuan rong/nhan vien gia tang. k^^^a. te nganhang So 61 "Thang 04/2011 I i NGHIEN cufu - TRAO DOI Them vao dd, do qui md ciia ngan hang gia tang, cac Ngan hang Trung Qud'c da bat dau lUu tam nhieu hcfn vao dich vu khich hing, lim cho sd nhan lUc ngin hang ciing gia tang theo. Tuy vay, sU gia tang sd lupng nhan vien khdng keo theo sU gia tang tinh chuyen nghiep. Khdng cd sU cai thien dang ke nao ddi vdi linh vUc kinh doanh ngoii cac san pham truyen thdng Ii huy dpng vdn va cho vay. Ddi vdi cic chi nhanh NHTM nha nUdc, do nhdng khudn khd gidi ban trong quan ly ciia Chinh phii, viec gia tang sd lUdng nhan vien khdng nhdng khdng keo theo sU cai thien ve tinh chuyen nghiep, ma trii lai, lai lam cho nd kem hcfn. Cac chi nhanh NHTM nha nUdc khdng cd nhdng nd lUc thUc sU de phat trien nhdng linh vUc kinh doanh mdi, ngoai nhdng linh vUc truyen tho'ng. Viec gia tang lpi nhuan ciia cac chi nhinh NHTM nhi nUdc ehu yeu nhd vao sU gia tang ciia qui md thi trUdng. Dieu do chi ra rang, do viec hudng dung vi the gan nhu la dpc quyen nhdm, cac chi nhanh NHTM nha nUdc vin Ii mpt the lUc manh trong he tho'ng Ngan hang Trung Qud'c. Mo hinh nghien citu Td tdng luan ly thuyet ve md hinh nghien cdu, xet cac diem tUofng ddng trong thUc trang, the che quan ly qua trinh chuyen ddi va ca'u true tdng the gida he tho'ng Ngan hang Viet Nam va he tho'ng Ngan hang Trung Qud'c, md hinh phan tich dupc nhdm nghien cdu chpn cd dang: P = f(S, C, X, ) Trong dd: P la bieu nang, dupe do bang ty le thu nhap tren tdng tai san ROA S la cac bien ca'u true C la cac bien hanh vi (chinh sach) X Ii bien so' kiem soat S, C, X trong dd lieu bai viet dUPe do ludng thdng qua tap hpp cic bien nhU: - ROA (Return on Assets), ky hieu P: ddpc tinh toin bang cich lay lpi nhuan sau thue chia cho tdng tai san binh quan trong nam (binh quan gida dau nam vi cudi nam). Day Ii bien phu thupc duy nhat dupe chpn de do ludng hieu nang (P). Ty so' ROE (Return on Equity) khdng dupe chpn vi nhdm ngan hang qud'c doanh chi la cac chi nhinh vdi ngudn vdn ban dau dUpc cap phit bdi ngan hang me, chd khdng thUc sU Ii vdn dieu le ding ky (Registered Capital) nhU ngan hang cd phan va ngan hang lien doanh. - Thi phan eho vay (Lending Share), ky hieu Zl: dupc tinh toan bang cich li'y tdng du np cho vay cua tdng nhdm chi nhinh NHTM nha nude chia cho tdng dU np cho vay cua toin he ^ ,'A« r. .„,!>a ngan hang So 61 "Thang 04/2011 NGHIEN cufu - TRAO DOI thdng cic chi nhanh ngan hang tren dia ban Tp. Hd Chi Minh (khdng bao gdm cac dinh che tai chinh phi ngan hang). - Thi phan huy dpng vdn (Deposit Share), ky hieu Z2: dupc tinh toin bang cich lay tdng sd du huy dpng tien gdi ciia cac ehi nhanh ngan hang chia cho tdng dU huy dpng tien gdi ciia toin he tho'ng ngan hang of Tp. Hd Chi Minh (ciing khdng bao gdm cac dinh che tai chinh phi ngin hang). - Thi phan tai san (Asset Share), ky hieu Z4: dupe tinh toan bang cich lay tdng tai san ciia tdng nhom chi nhinh ngan hang ehia cho tdng tii san cua toin he thdng cic chi nhanh ngan hing d Tp. Hd Chi Minh. Thi phan tai san trong mpt ehdng mUc nao dd cd the hien tinh kinh te qui mo ciia hoat dpng ngin hang. - Ty le np xi'u (NPL Ratio), ky hieu Z6: dupc tinh bang cich lay np xi'u tren tdng dU np cho vay. Day la bien sd thudng sd dung de do lUofng rui ro tin dung cua ngan hang. - Du trd thanh khoan/tdng tai san (Liquidity Reserve to Total Assets), ky hieu Z8: dUpc tinh toan bang tien mat, tien gdi ngan hang cpng chdng khoin thanh khoan chia cho tdng tai san day la mpt bien so' do lUdng riii ro thanh khoan cua NHTM. Ty le cang nhd thi kha nang chdng dd riii ro thanh khoan cang yeu va ngUpe lai. Tuy vay, neu ty le niy cao thi ngan hang can phai xem lai kha nang danh ddi gida rui ro va lpi nhuan, vi tai san thanh khoan cd mdc sinh lpi thUdng tha'p hofn nhieu so vdi cic tii san sinh lpi khac (Other Earning Assets). - Tien gdi khdng ky han/tien gdi cd ky ban (Current Deposit to Fixed Deposit Ratio), ky hieu ZIO: nhdng ngan hing nhd hoac cic ngan hang yeu kem ve cung dng dich vu thudng cd ty le nay tha'p, trong khi do, nhdng ngan hang ldn va nhdng ngan hang cd the manh ve cung dng dich vu se cd ty le nay cao. Ve ly thuyet, ty le nay cing cao thi cang lam tang kha nang giam thieu chi phi huy dpng von dau vao, gia tang hieu qua boat dpng cua ngan hang. - Cho vay/huy dpng (Lending to Deposit Ratio), ky hieu Zll: dUpc tinh toan bang cich lay tdng du np cho vay chia tdng so' tien gdi huy dpng. Ty le nay cang cao thi cang gia tang kha ning rui ro tin dung ciia ngin hang, trong khi dd, cic ngan hang cd ty le cho vay/huy dpng tha'p thudng cd kha ning giam thieu rui ro tin dung, da dang hda danh muc tai san dau td, da dang hda danh muc dich vu cung dng cho khich hang. - Cof ca'u thu nhip lai/tdng thu nhap, ky hieu Z12: ty le nay cang cao thi ngan hang cang de gap rui ro tin dung hcfn. Dieu dd cung thUdng tha'y d nhdng ngan hang bi ban che ve cung dng dich vu. - Cho vay trung dai han/tdng cho vay (Mediem and Long Term Lending to Total Lending), ky hieu Z14: dupc tinh toan bang cich li'y tdng du np cho vay trung vi dai ban chia cho tdng du np cho vay. - Cho vay bang ngoai te/tdng cho vay (Foreign Currency-based Lending to Total Lending Ratio), ky hieu Z15: dupe tinh toan bang cich lay tdng du np cho vay bang ngoai te chia cho tdng du np cho vay. Ty le nay the hien tiem lUc cua cac ngan hang ldn, manh ve dich vu, nhit la cic dich vu lien quan den xua't nhip khau va ngoai hdi. - Tai san co ngoai te/tdng tai san, ky hieu Z18: phan ldn Ii tien gdi ngoai te dupe gdi tai cac tai khoan nostro tai cic ngan hang dai ly dat tai nUdc ngoai. TUcfng tU, tai san co ngoai te the hien tiem lUc cua cic ngin hang ldn, manh ve dich vu, nha't la cic dich vu lien quan den xua't nhap khau va ngoai hdi. - Tai sin np ngoai te/tdng ngudn vdn, ky hieu Z19: phan ldn Ii cic khoan huy dpng vdn bang ngoai te td cac chu np nUdc ngoai vi ca td cic tai khoan nostro tUofng dng vdi cic tai san cd ngoai te nhU da ndi d phan tren. Do dd, tii san np ngoai te ciing the hien tiem lUc cua cac ngin hang ldn, manh ve dich vu, nha't la cac dich vu lien quan den xua't nhap khau va ngoai hoi; ben canh dd, cdn the hien nang lUc vay np td ngUdi khdng cU tru, neu co. Cac bien liet ke tren, mpt mat, chinh la nhdng chi tieu thudng dUpc sd dung de do lUdng va nganhang So 61 "Thang 04/2011 II NGHIEN cufu - TRAO DOI dinh gia boat ddng NHTM, nhdng mat khic trong khudn khd md hinh phan tich, chinh la nhdng bien - nhan td tic dpng den hieu qua va hieu ning boat dpng ngan hang, hieu theo nghia tdng quit nhU trong phan ly thuyet tdng quan neu tren. Ket qua ky vong tijf phan tich: cd the xic dinh dupe ba ndi dung quan trpng sau: (i) Ddi vdi tdng loai hinh ngan hang cu the, co the xic dinh dupc nhdng thanh phan tic dpng vao ROA va sap xep chung theo mdc dp tic dpng tang dan hoac giam dan; (ii) So sinh, nhan dinh sU khic biet ve hieu nang ciia cac loai hinh ngan hang khic nhau va so sinh, sap xep mdc dp hieu nang ROA ciia cac ngan hang; (iii) Ket luan va dUa ra nhdng ham y chinh sich. Bo du! lieu cho phan tich: nhdm nghien cdu da sd dung bang can ddi tdng hpp giai doan 1999-2009 phan chia theo nhdm cic ngin hang tren dia bin Tp. Hd Chi Minh. Ngudn dd lieu td Ngan hang Nha nUdc Chi nhinh Tp. Hd Chi Minh. Do tin cay cua d& lieu: dd lieu hang nam vdi 11 quan sat giai doan 1999 - 2009, vi vay, tie gia ky vpng dp tin cay cua qua trinh phan tich dat dupe 85%, tuong duong vdi mdc y nghia a=15%. Ket qua nghien ciifu Vdi mdc y nghia a=15%, hau het ca bien ky vpng deu tUofng quan cd y nghla ddi vdi hieu nang ROA. Vi vay, md hinh SCP ky vpng cd dang nhu sau: P = KZl, Z2, Z4, Z6, Z8, ZIO, Zll, Z12, Z14, Z15, Z18, Z19) Phan tich hdi quy thUc hien cho md hinh tren ket hpp cic kiem dinh cic hien tUpng da cpng tuyen, tU tUcfng quan vi phUcfng sai thay ddi bang phuong phap loai trd dan (Backward). Md hinh dupc chpn cudi cung cd kha nang giai thich 94,3% gia tri thUc te (da qua kiem dinh vdi sig^j^oy^ =0,3% va a=15%), (Bang 1,2). Bang 1: Tom tSt mo hinh SCP nhom chi nhanh NHTM nha nvCdc Miu 1 R ,989(a) R- ,977 R^hieu chinh ,943 Sal so chuan cda u^c lirong ,0020 Thong ke Durbin-Watson 2,595 a Cdc bien dpc lap: (hdng sd), Z19, Z15, Z2, Z8, Zll, ZIO b Bien phu thupc: Y2 Bang 2: Kiem dinh mo hinh SCP nhom chi nhanh NHTM nha niidc ANOVA** (phan tich phiTdng sai) Mau 1 Hoi quy Phan du Tong long binh phyffng ,001 ,000 ,001 df 6 4 10 Binh phiftrng trung binh ,000 ,000 F 28,563 Sig. ,003'"' a Cdc bien dpc lap: (hdng sd), Z19, Z15, Z2, Z8, Zll, ZIO b Bien phu thupc: Y2 Nguon: Ket qud truy sudt tU SPSS. M6 hinh khong xay ra hien tupng da cpng tuye'n (ta't ca cic gii tri VIF deu nhd hofn 10), (Bang 3) va khong co hien tdpng tii tuong quan (chi tieu dubin-Watson = 2,595), (Bang 1). Vi vay, mo hinh co the dUpc dung de kiem dinh cic moi quan he gida hieu nang va cic chi tieu ky vpng trong mo hinh. Bang 3: H# so' hoi quy mo hinh SCP nhom chi nhanh NHTM nha nifoTc Coefficients* (h$ so' hoi quy) 1 Hang so Z, Z, ZIO Zl, Zis Zl, Hq so chira chuun hoa B .053 040 286 ,026 .,042 ,091 -,511 Sai so chuan .012 ,013 ,051 ,012 ,016 ,026 ,324 H$ so da chuan hda Beta -,453 -,766 ,363 -,446 ,491 303 t 4,247 -3,314 -5,633 2,199 -2,723 3,547 -1,576 Sie. ,013 ,035 ,005 ,093 ,053 ,024 .190 Cgng tuy^n D$ chap nhin ,273 ,308 ,210 .213 .298 ,154 VIF 3,666 3,242 4,771 4.700 3.360 6.483 a Bien phu thupc: Y2 Ngudn: Ket qud truy sudt til SPSS. .,n. nganhang So 61 •Thang 04/2011 NGHIEN cufu - TRAO DOI III! Ket qua sau kiem dinh, phin thinh hai nhom: (i) Nhom cic chi tieu tic dpng co y nghia thdng ke; (ii) Nhom cic chi tieu kem y nghia thdng ke (tic dpng khong ro rang). Cu the nhu sau: - Nhom cac chi tieu dap Ung ky vpng: tic dpng manh len ROA Bien Z2: thi phan huy dpng von co tic dpng am len hieu nang ROA. Ket qua nay khong ly giai dUpc tinh kinh te qui mo Ii mpt diem manh cua cic chi nhinh NHTM nhi nUdc. Tren thUc te, cac chi nhinh NHTM nha nUde, trong trUcfng hpp huy dpng khong du de cho vay (do thi phan sut giam), thudng phai vay lai tif ngan hang me vdi lai suit thudng dUpc dinh gii la khong "hpp ly". Trong khi khong CO nhOfng ccf sd, dU lieu minh chdng khic, nhom nghien cUu phai chip nhan loai bien nay ra khdi mo hinh de xua't cudi cimg. Bien Z8: du trii thanh khoan/tdng tai san co tic dpng am len hieu nang ROA. Bien ZIO: tien gdi khong ky han/tien gdi co ky ban co tic dpng duofng len hieu nang ROA. Bien Zll: cho vay/huy dpng co tic dpng am len hieu nang ROA. Bien Z15: cho vay bang ngoai te/tdng cho vay CO tic dpng dUcfng len hieu nang ROA. Bien Z19: tai san np ngoai te/tdng ngudn vdn CO tic dpng am len hieu nang ROA. - Nhom chi tieu khong dip Ung ky vpng: tic dpng khong rd rang len ROA, bao gdm cae bien con lai. Ket luan mo hinh Bien Z8: du trU thanh khoan/tdng tai san co xu hudng giam dan, ket qua hdi quy cho thay sU tic dpng cua nhan td nay len ROA hien di dung quy luat. Vi vay, can co nhOfng chinh sich, de xui't nham giam ty le dU trOf thanh khoan/tdng tai san se cd hieu Ung tich cUc len hieu ning ROA. Bien ZIO: tien gdi khong ky han/tien gdi co ky han trong thUc te co xu hudng giam dan nhUng ket qua hdi quy cho tha'y co hieu Ung dUdng giufa tien gdi khong ky han/tien gdi co ky ban. Vi vay, can co chinh sich gia ting tien gdi khong ky ban trong ccf ca'u tien gdi se CO hieu Ung td^t len hieu ning ROA. Bien Zll: cho vay/huy dpng c6 xu hudng giam dan, phu hpp vdi ket qua hdi quy va ky vpng dUa ra. NhU vay, cang giam ty le cho vay/huy dpng cang tang ROA. Ket qua niy nhin manh chinh sich da dang hoa cof cau suf dung vd^n ciia ngan hang, se gia tang hieu nang ROA ciia nhom chi nhanh NHTM nha nUdc. Bien Z15: cho vay bang ngoai te/tdng cho vay CO xu hudng giam dan nhUng trong mdi quan he tdng the cic nhin td tic dpng vao hieu nang ROA cho tha'y, cho vay bang ngoai te/ tdng eho vay co hieu Ung dUofng. Dieu nay co nghia, gia tang cho vay bang ngoai te se co xu hudng tang hieu nang ROA cua ngan hang qude doanh. Bien Z19: tii san np ngoai te/tdng ngudn von CO xu hudng giam dan, phu hpp vdi ket qua hdi quy va ky vpng. Tuy nhien, trong giai doan niy, tai san np ngoai te/tdng ngudn vd^n cua chi nhanh NHTM nha nUdc chiem ty trpng tha'p va la chi tieu tic dpng thip nha't trong cae nhan td^ dUpc de cap. Vi vay, can xem xet lai chinh sich giam tai san np ngoai te/tdng ngudn vdn nham tang hieu nang ROA. Cac gtfi y chinh sach TU cac ket qua phan tich, cac chinh sich vi phUofng thdc quan tri thanh khoan ciing can dupe cac chi nhanh NHTM nhi nude quan tam nhieu bon. Cic chi nhanh ngan hing nay ciing can phat huy lpi the "die thu" cua minh (TrUofng Quang Thong, 2009), trong viec nhan nhiing khoan tien gijfi khong ky ban tU cic doanh nghiep ldn, die biet la cac doanh nghiep nha nUde, tap doan kinh te nha nUdc. The manh tren can phai dupe dat trong mpt nen tang vufng chae bun, xui't phat tii chat lupng va sU da dang ciia san pham dich vu - linh vUc ma eac ehi nhanh NHTM nhi nUdc quan tam dau tU nhieu hon trong bd^i canh canh tranh hien nay. nganhangtn So 61 •Thang 04/2011 "flli NGHIEN cufu - TRAO DOI Cung nhu vay, thong qua viec phit trien dich vu, ehi nhinh NHTM nhi nUdc co the giam dan ty le cho vay/huy dpng, nham giam thieu rui ro tin dung va cai thien hieu nang boat dpng cua minh. Mpt van de khic ciing can dUpc quan tam: trong khi tai san co ngoai te gop phan lim gia tang hieu nang ciia cic ehi nhanh NHTM nha nUde thi tai san np ngoai te lai lam giam hieu ning do. Sd^ lUpng tai san co ngoai te, theo kinh nghiem cua nhom nghien cUu, the hien mpt vai tro va quyen lUc mang tinh lieh sii ciia nhom cic chi nhinh NHTM nha nUdc trong mpt thdi gian dii, trong linh vUc thanh toin qud^c te va tii trp ngoai thucfng. Do do, de cac khoan muc tii sin c6-tai sin np co tic dpng tich cUc len hieu nang, tUofng tU gpi y ehinh sich phia tren, cae chi nhinh NHTM nha nUdc cang can phai giiJ vufng, cai thien va phat trien chat lUpng, danh muc san pham dich vu trong linh viic eo lien quan; dau tU CO hieu qua hcfn cac danh muc np ngoai te, thiet lap cic phUofng thUc quan ly riii ro hdi doii, die biet Ii trong dieu kien chenh lech am keo dai giiJa tii san co ngoai te va tai san np ngoai te. Mac dii be ngoai, chenh lech im CO the la mpt lpi the nhUng tren thUc te, rui ro van co the xay ra; chang ban, trong trUdng hpp cac chi nhinh NHTM nha nUdc qui lam dung viec cho vay bang ngoai te cho nhiing khich hang thieu kha nang tii tao ngoai te de tra np. Han che cua nghien ciiu De tai nghien cijfu eung con mpt sd^ ban che nhi't dinh: pham vi nghien cUu (Tp. Hd Chi Minh) bi ban che ve ngudn dd lieu toan he thd^ng ngan hang Viet Nam; chudi thdi gian 11 nim, dp tin cay 85% cung co the giam bdt di y nghia cua cac ket qua phan tich. Cudi ciing, tic gia vin khong the co day du cic duf lieu can thiet, de co the bd sung nhieu bien giai thich khic, cung nhu de ly giai nhQng nghieh ly xay ra trong qui trinh xuf ly va phan tich" ^ - nganhang So 61 'Thang 04/2011 Tai lieu tham khao 1. Truang Quang Thong (2009), Canh tranh ngdn hdng tic goc dp khd ndng sinh ldi. Tap chi Kinh te Phdt trien, thdng 12-2009 2. Chien-Shun Chen and Hui-Tzu Shih (2004), Banking and Insurance in the new China, Edward Elga Publishing. 3. Freixas, Xavier, Rocher, J.C. (1998), Microeconomics of banking. The MIT Press, Cambridge Massachusetts. 4. Gilbert, R.A (1984), Bank Market Structure and Competition: A survey. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 16 (4). . • . nUdc de td do cd nhdng gpi y ve chinh sich phu hpp. Doi ttfpng va pham vi nghien cufu Ddi tupng nghien cdu la nhdm cic chi nhinh NHTM nha nUdc tai Tp. Hd Chi Minh (bao gdm ca VCB va Vietinbank,. Vdi ly do khich quan tren, viec ap dung md hinh S-C-P chi cd the thUc hien trong pham vi he thdng chi nhinh NHTM nha nUdc tai Tp. Hd Chi Minh, ncfi ma nhdm cd nhdng dieu kien de dang trong. phUcfng dien thUc te, Tp. Hd Chi Minh la mpt trung tam kinh te - tai chinh hang dau da't nudc, cd mdc dp tap trung va cUdng dp canh tranh gida cac dinh che tii chinh - ngan hing dupc dinh