BANKING ACADEMY OF VIETNAM FACULTY OF INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS ------ BACHELOR’S THESIS THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY AND ECONOMIC GROWTH Student : Tran Thi Ngoc
INTRODUCTION
Environmental pollution is reaching worrying proportions worldwide There are many types of environmental pollution which affect our lives in many different ways
Global environmental pollution, encompassing greenhouse gas emissions, acid deposition, water pollution, and waste management, is recognized as a significant international public health issue Addressing this challenge requires a comprehensive approach that considers social, economic, legislative, and environmental factors, as well as the quality of lifestyle.
Environmental pollutants pose significant health risks, including perinatal disorders, infant mortality, respiratory issues, allergies, cardiovascular diseases, stress, endothelial dysfunction, and mental health problems While the short-term effects of air pollution are often highlighted, it is crucial to recognize the broader implications of these pollutants on health throughout life, particularly their contribution to chronic non-communicable diseases in adulthood Research consistently shows that exposure to environmental particulates is associated with a higher risk of morbidity and mortality from various diseases and organ dysfunctions.
As global temperatures rise and populations increase, the prevalence of air pollution has reached alarming levels, with nine out of ten people exposed to harmful emissions that contribute to the deaths of 7 million individuals annually Air pollution is responsible for one third of deaths from stroke, lung cancer, and heart disease, posing health risks comparable to smoking tobacco These microscopic pollutants infiltrate even the wealthiest areas, bypassing the body's defenses and causing significant damage to the lungs, heart, and brain The urgent need for clean fuels and technologies is critical as half of the world's population still lacks access to them.
Air pollution significantly impacts the global economy, contributing to increased rates of chronic diseases such as asthma, diabetes, and respiratory issues These health problems reduce workforce participation and productivity, as affected individuals may miss work or school In 2018, chronic disease-related disabilities cost the global economy $200 billion, with sick leave and preterm births accounting for an additional $100 billion and $90 billion, respectively In China, the annual economic burden of air pollution is estimated at $900 billion, while costs in the U.S are similarly substantial.
Indian cities face severe air pollution challenges, resulting in an annual economic burden of approximately $150 billion This environmental crisis has led to significant costs, with air pollution accounting for 6.6% of China's GDP, 5.4% of India's GDP, and 3% of the U.S GDP in 2018 The detrimental effects of waste from various human activities, including consumption, heating, agriculture, mining, manufacturing, and transportation, continue to threaten the environment.
A new report by Greenpeace Southeast Asia and the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air highlights the severe human and economic costs of air pollution from fossil fuels, revealing that it causes three times more deaths than road traffic accidents globally The report estimates that air pollution has incurred a staggering $2.9 trillion cost to the world economy, representing 3.3% of the global GDP In 2018 alone, it was linked to 4.5 million deaths, contributed to 1.8 billion days of work absence, led to 4 million new cases of child asthma, and resulted in 2 million preterm births due to PM2.5 pollution.
High concentrations of pollutants, especially ozone, significantly diminish crop yields, impacting agricultural productivity across various regions TM5-FASST calculations, consistent with broader research, indicate that all regions will experience negative effects on crop yields, although the extent varies by region and crop type Notably, wheat and oilseeds are particularly vulnerable, with substantial losses reported in several OECD countries, including Japan, Korea, and the USA for oilseeds.
Pollution poses a severe threat not only to humans but also to wildlife, particularly marine life Fish are dying after ingesting plastic and other contaminants, mistaking them for food, which is just one aspect of this global crisis Entire marine ecosystems are being disrupted, with toxic materials in our oceans potentially reaching lethal levels for all marine organisms The food chain is already compromised, as small fish consume these toxins and are then eaten by larger fish, ultimately affecting human health Consuming contaminated fish can lead to serious health issues, including neurological damage, kidney failure, and even cancer, primarily due to heavy metals like lead, mercury, and cadmium These metals enter our waters from toxic waste dumped by factories and from landfills, eventually contaminating the soil and making their way into the oceans.
Air pollution significantly impacts habitats, which are essential environments for various animal species Acid rain alters the chemistry of soils and water, making them too acidic for some animals to survive and increasing the release of toxic heavy metals like aluminum into aquatic habitats These heavy metals pose severe risks to wildlife, including fish, and can travel long distances through the air Other pollutants, such as smog and particulate matter, also harm wildlife health, affecting respiratory and cardiovascular systems The vulnerability of animals to air pollution varies based on their breathing mechanisms, whether through lungs, gills, or skin Pollutants enter the food chain, leading to bioaccumulation, particularly in top predators like bears and eagles, raising concerns about the consumption of contaminated fish Air pollutants can disrupt endocrine functions, cause organ damage, and lower reproductive success, ultimately threatening wildlife populations Changes in species abundance due to air pollution can have cascading effects on ecosystems, benefiting some species while endangering others that rely on them for food.
Climate change is an urgent global issue primarily driven by human activities since the Industrial Revolution, which marked a significant rise in greenhouse gas emissions This phenomenon refers to long-term variations in climate, distinct from short-term weather fluctuations, and has led to a 1.1°C increase in global temperatures, with projections suggesting a potential rise of 2.7°C by the century's end The consequences of climate change are dire, threatening the survival of diverse species, including humans, through melting polar ice, rising sea levels, and extreme weather events These impacts result in flooding, droughts, and the extinction of species, particularly affecting developing countries and creating climate refugees Coordinated global efforts are essential to combat this borderless challenge and mitigate its devastating effects on ecosystems and economies.
Air pollution is intricately connected to climate change, primarily driven by the combustion of fossil fuels, which significantly contributes to both issues The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has emphasized that to limit global warming to 1.5°C, coal-fired electricity must be phased out by 2050 Failure to take action could result in a severe climate crisis within the next two decades.
The health impacts of climate change are profoundly evident in our hospitals and respiratory health, with the detrimental effects of polluting energy sources placing a significant burden on public health Dr Maria Neira, WHO Director of Public Health, emphasizes that transitioning to cleaner and more sustainable energy, transportation, and food systems can effectively offset these costs Environmental pollution is a key driver of climate change, which, in turn, affects numerous facets of our lives and the health of our planet It is imperative that we take action now to safeguard our environment for a healthier future.
Environmental pollution is significantly influenced by urbanization, industrialization, and economic development, which have all contributed to increased energy consumption and waste production In the initial phases of development, many countries prioritize economic growth over environmental quality, often resulting in severe pollution, particularly in rapidly developing nations This trend has led to a marked increase in pollution levels and subsequent habitat destruction in these regions.
Economic growth and environmental quality are intricately linked, prompting this thesis to explore the relationship between environmental damage and economic growth, specifically through the lens of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth Air pollution, pervasive regardless of wealth, introduces microscopic pollutants that can infiltrate our respiratory and circulatory systems, causing harm to vital organs such as the lungs, heart, and brain, with CO2 being a significant contributor GDP, which measures the total value of goods and services produced within a country's borders over a specific timeframe, serves as a reliable indicator of economic size and health An increase in GDP signifies economic growth, while CO2 emissions act as a critical determinant of environmental quality.
Product is considered as a proxy for economic growth
Extensive research has been conducted on the implications of economic growth, notably in "The Limits to Growth" (1972) by Donella H Meadows and colleagues, which advocates for a zero-growth or steady-state economy to prevent significant environmental degradation While many developing countries experience rapid economic growth, this progress comes at a high environmental cost, severely impacting land, soil, water, air, and noise quality.
In the long run, governments need to find a way to fix these problems
LITERATURE REVIEW
The study of environmental quality
Environmental quality encompasses both natural and built environments, including factors such as ergonomics, air and water quality, lighting comfort, hygiene, and electromagnetic radiation It plays a significant role in influencing our physical and mental health.
Environmental quality is influenced by various disciplines, with significant research highlighting the relationship between Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and environmental degradation A study by Muhammad Shahbaz et al (2015) found that increased FDI correlates with heightened environmental degradation across countries with varying income levels, emphasizing the sensitivity of these insights to income ranges and regional differences Similarly, Ahmad Zomorrodi and Xiaoyan Zhou (2017) examined the FDI-environment quality relationship in China, utilizing a comprehensive panel dataset to reveal adverse effects of FDI on sulfur dioxide emissions and water pollution Their regional analysis across East, West, Central, and Northeast China demonstrated varying impacts of FDI on environmental quality, leading to recommendations for government action to mitigate these effects and protect regional environments.
Urbanization's impact on environmental quality is a significant concern, particularly in India, as highlighted by Vanita Aggarwal and colleagues (2012) They note that the rapid growth and density of urban areas, driven by mass migration from rural regions, have led to unchecked environmental degradation This has resulted in serious issues such as land insecurity, water pollution, and air and noise pollution The study emphasizes the need for proactive measures to ensure that urbanization progresses sustainably, protecting vital environmental components like climate, biosphere, land, and water resources While urbanization cannot be halted, it is crucial to guide its development in an environmentally friendly direction.
In 2012, a study analyzed China's rapid urbanization using a comprehensive database from Lianyungang, covering the years 2000 to 2008 The research examined four aspects of urbanization alongside three determinants of environmental quality Additionally, it introduced a Coupling Coordination Degree Model (CCDM) to assess the coordination between urbanization and environmental factors The findings revealed that two key indicators of environmental quality, specifically industrial SO2 emissions and industrial wastewater, significantly influenced the environmental sub-system, highlighting the critical role of managing urbanization in Lianyungang.
Muhammad Shahbaz and colleagues (2016) explored the relationship between financial development and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, analyzing data from Pakistan's environmental quality spanning from the first quarter of 1985 to the fourth quarter of 2014 Their comprehensive study highlights the importance of leveraging technology effectively to enhance environmental quality, emphasizing the need for sustainable financial practices to mitigate CO2 emissions.
Researchers are increasingly focused on the impact of trade openness and tourism on the environment A study by Muhammad Shahbaz and colleagues explores how globalization and trade openness influence environmental outcomes.
A study by 2014 analyzed India's annual data from 1970 to 2000, revealing that the rapid growth of globalization and energy consumption significantly contributes to increased CO2 emissions In contrast, Shunsuke Managi and colleagues (2009) highlighted the positive effects of trade openness on the environment in OECD countries, while noting detrimental impacts on SO2 and CO2 emissions in non-OECD nations, which poses a long-term challenge Furthermore, Sudharshan Reddy Paramati and his team (2017) investigated the relationship between tourism, economic growth, and CO2 emissions in Eastern and Western EU countries Their findings indicated that while tourism fosters economic growth, it also adversely affects CO2 emissions, emphasizing the importance of sustainable tourism policies and effective management in mitigating these effects.
The determinants of environmental quality
The quality of our environment is influenced by various elements, including the air we breathe, the water we consume, the food we eat, and the buildings we inhabit Numerous studies have explored the key determinants of environmental quality and the factors that can affect these determinants.
In their 2009 study, Thomas Bernauer and Vally Koubi analyzed SO2 concentration data from the Global Environment Monitoring Projects, covering 107 cities across 42 countries from 1971 to 1996 Their findings revealed three significant results, one of which supports the assertion that a higher degree of democracy positively influences air quality.
Baker and Chesnin (1975) examined various aspects of environmental quality, highlighting the crucial role of soils as both sources and sinks for potentially toxic substances affecting air, water, and the food chain The study identified multiple sources of soil pollution, including agricultural pollutants and industrial and municipal waste.
Research highlights the significant impact of both formal and informal economic activities on environmental quality, with formal activities having a greater influence, as seen in Hatice Imamoglu's (2018) study on Turkey Similarly, Ahmed Khalid (2014) examined Mongolia's energy growth, revealing that increased economic growth correlates with higher CO2 emissions, negatively affecting the country's environment due to rising energy demands In East Asia, Toru and Iwami (2004) explored the relationship between economic development and emissions of CO2 and SO2, addressing whether economic growth can coexist with environmental quality Their findings are promising, indicating that despite rising emission levels, SO2 emissions have not increased, largely due to the region's efforts in environmental education and technology transfer through Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and Official Development Assistance (ODA).
Numerous studies have examined various factors influencing environmental quality, with a predominant focus on CO2 emissions as a key metric for assessment Researchers often highlight CO2 due to its significant impact on the environment and the accessibility of relevant data, making it a convenient choice for evaluation.
The relationship between environmental quality and economic growth
Since the 1970s, researchers have explored the connection between environmental quality and economic growth, notably highlighted by Donella H Meadows and her team in "The Limits to Growth" (1972), which advocated for a zero-growth or steady-state economy to prevent severe environmental degradation Many developing countries have experienced rapid economic growth, but this has come at a significant environmental cost, adversely affecting land, soil, water, air, and noise quality In the long term, governments will face substantial expenses to address and remediate these environmental issues.
Nemat Shafik and Sushenjit Bandyopadhya (1992) examined the relationship between environmental quality and economic factors by analyzing environmental transformation patterns across countries with varying income levels Their research, based on an extensive database of eight environmental quality indicators, led to six key conclusions Firstly, they found that income significantly impacts environmental quality, while technology positively influences environmental protection Secondly, many environmental indices improve as countries reach middle-income status The study highlighted the critical role of technology in enhancing environmental quality Additionally, econometric evidence revealed that trade, debt, and macroeconomic policies have minimal effects on the environment, although specific policies can address particular environmental issues They emphasized that while it is possible to overcome certain environmental challenges, achieving this requires deliberate policies and investments to mitigate degradation Finally, the authors noted that action is often motivated by local costs and the presence of substantial private and social benefits.
This paper aims to contribute new insights to the discussion on economic growth and environmental equality, specifically focusing on CO2 emissions as a key determinant While existing empirical literature offers valuable perspectives, it lacks comprehensiveness Utilizing ordinary least squares (OLS) estimation—a method not previously applied to this topic—this study analyzes extensive panel data from over 130 countries worldwide, covering the period from 1970 to the present By broadening the research scope, the paper seeks to uncover more nuanced relationships between economic growth and environmental factors.
2014 was used in this study Besides, I also the Kuznets curve (EKC).
DATA DISCUSSION AND MODEL SPECIFICATION
Data discussion
CO2 emissions per capita serve as a key indicator of environmental quality, as atmospheric CO2 is essential for life on Earth, enabling plants, algae, and cyanobacteria to produce oxygen through photosynthesis While CO2 is vital for sustaining life and providing food, it is also a major contributor to the greenhouse effect, which negatively impacts the environment and human well-being Thus, it is crucial to manage and control CO2 emissions to balance its benefits and drawbacks for a healthier planet.
Economic indicators such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita and domestic credit to the private sector are essential proxies for assessing economic growth GDP, defined as the total value of goods and services produced within a country's borders over a specific period, serves as a key measure of an economy's size, with its growth rate being a strong indicator of economic progress Additionally, GDP per capita closely correlates with living standards over time Domestic credit to the private sector, expressed as a ratio of nominal GDP, reflects the financial resources available to the private sector, including loans and trade credits, which are crucial for economic development An efficient banking sector plays a vital role in transforming deposits into financial assets, ensuring the effective allocation of resources across the economy Credit is a critical mechanism for resource allocation, supporting individuals, businesses, and governments in funding consumption, investment, and infrastructure projects Ultimately, private sector credit is pivotal for economic development, driving investment, employment, efficiency, productivity, and poverty reduction.
This study examines the relationship between electric power consumption per capita and the KOF Globalization Index, highlighting their roles as indicators of economic size and development As modern societies increasingly rely on secure electricity supplies for economic growth and community prosperity, this dependency is expected to intensify, particularly in the transition to more efficient and low-carbon economies In developing nations, energy use correlates closely with growth in modern sectors such as industry, motorized transport, and urbanization, while also being influenced by climatic, geographic, and economic factors The KOF Globalization Index, developed by Axel Dreher, assesses the economic, social, and political dimensions of globalization, revealing that while globalization can provide developing countries with advanced technologies to address environmental challenges through foreign direct investment (FDI), it may also contribute to increased CO2 emissions in the long run This study aims to re-evaluate the interplay between globalization and environmental impact using this index Descriptive statistics of the data are provided below.
Variable Obs Mean Std Dev Min Max
LnCO 4,229 0.764752 1.496991 -2.85268 3.592573 LnGDP 4,229 7.912373 1.570935 5.021632 11.04321 LnEnergy 4,229 6.974218 1.692293 3.064523 10.03711 LnDcredit 4,229 3.398831 0.904095 1.103445 5.222293 LnKOFGI 4,229 3.955913 0.302146 3.179349 4.485217
Table 1 summarizes the key statistics for the variables analyzed in this study, including CO2 emissions per capita (in metric tons), GDP per capita (in current USD), electric power consumption per capita (in kWh), and domestic credit to the private sector as a percentage of GDP All data for these four indicators were sourced from The World Bank database, while the KOF Globalization Index (KOFGI) data was obtained from the KOF Economic Barometer.
And as I said, this study uses a large panel data covers the period of 1970-
In 2014, data from over 130 countries worldwide provided valuable insights into the relationship between economic growth and equality, highlighting key indicators that define both areas.
I anticipate a negative correlation between carbon dioxide emissions and both GDP per capita and domestic credit to the private sector As key factors in economic growth, an improvement in these metrics should lead to reduced CO2 emissions Specifically, as GDP rises and domestic credit increases, investments in environmentally friendly technology and advanced waste management systems become feasible Consequently, this shift is expected to result in a decrease in carbon dioxide emissions.
The relationship between electric power consumption per capita and carbon dioxide emissions presents both opportunities and challenges, particularly for developing countries facing the dual pressures of urbanization and industrialization As economies grow, the demand for reliable electricity increases, which is essential for fostering economic growth and community well-being While the transition to more efficient and less carbon-intensive energy sources holds promise for reducing CO2 emissions, the actual impact of rising electric power consumption remains uncertain If increased electricity usage stems from the adoption of environmentally friendly technologies, such as electric vehicles and energy-efficient appliances, emissions may decrease However, if this surge in consumption is driven by industrial activities that lack proper waste treatment systems, it could lead to higher carbon emissions, highlighting the complexity of this relationship.
Globalization can positively influence environmental quality through education and technology facilitated by Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and Official Development Assistance (ODA) However, it also contributes to increased CO2 emissions Therefore, I anticipate a positive correlation between the KOF Globalization Index and CO2 emissions.
Model specification
Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) is a statistical method used for estimating unknown parameters in linear regression models by minimizing the sum of squared differences between observed and predicted values This technique focuses on reducing the squared distances between data points and the regression surface, ensuring a better model fit In simple linear regression, where only one explanatory variable is present, OLS provides a straightforward formula for estimation Given its advantages and my desire to explore new approaches, I chose to apply OLS estimation in this thesis.
Here we have the factors effecting carbon dioxide emissions per capita model:
- : Natural log of Carbon dioxide emissions per capita
- : Natural log of Gross domestic product per capita
- : Natural log of Square of real GDP per capita
- : Natural log of Electric power consumption per capita
- : Natural log of Domestic credit to private sector
We also have as the country fixed effects and the year fixed effects
Beside the OLS estimation, I also use the data to probe the existence of environmental Kuznets curve (EKC)
The general functional form of our model is given in the following equation:
Now, we have transformed all the variables into their natural logarithms to attain direct elasticities following Shahbaz et al., (2013) The empirical version of our model is constructed as follows:
- LnC t : Natural log of CO 2
- LnEt : Natural log of Electric power consumption per capita
- LnYt : Natural log of Gross domestic product per capita
- LnY 2 t : Natural log of Square of real GDP per capita
- LnG : Natural log of The KOF Globalisation Index
- Finally, ξi is the error term assumed to be normally distributed with zero mean and constant variance.
EMPIRICAL FINDINGS
Year fixed effects Yes No Yes
Country fixed effects No Yes Yes
Robust standard errors in parentheses
Our model demonstrated exceptional performance based on three estimations, with minimal variation in results and consistent direction across all assessments.
The analysis reveals a significant positive correlation between GDP per capita and CO2 emissions, indicating that a 1% increase in GDP per capita leads to approximately a 0.73% rise in CO2 emissions Similarly, there is a positive relationship between domestic credit to the private sector and CO2 emissions, where a 1% decrease in domestic credit results in a reduction of about 0.0604% in emissions This trend can be attributed to increased industrial activities associated with economic growth, leading to higher emissions from factories Additionally, as GDP rises, individual incomes increase, resulting in greater consumption patterns that further degrade environmental quality For instance, higher income levels often lead individuals to prefer cars over motorbikes, contributing to increased emissions due to the higher energy demands of cars.
There is a significant positive correlation between per capita electric power consumption and CO2 emissions This indicates that an increase in electric power consumption per person contributes to a rise in CO2 emissions Specifically, a 1% increase in per capita electric power consumption is associated with a 0.4% increase in CO2 emissions.
The unexpected dynamics of our relationships can be attributed to the rising demand for electric power, which in turn drives increased production However, this surge in electricity generation often results in significant CO2 emissions, primarily due to an incomplete power generation system and the reliance on less environmentally friendly energy sources.
The only index showing a negative correlation with CO2 emissions is the square of real GDP per capita, which is statistically significant at the highest level The findings indicate that a 1% increase in this index leads to an approximate 0.4% reduction in emissions.
Picture 1 Environmental Kuznets curve (EKC)
Besides, the EKC shows that GDP and CO2 emission have a reverse – U shape relationship which means that at the low level of GDP It‘s a good sign
The relationship between GDP and CO2 emissions varies significantly depending on the GDP level At low GDP levels, such as in developing countries like Vietnam, economic growth often leads to increased CO2 emissions due to lax regulations and a focus on attracting foreign investment However, as GDP rises, the correlation shifts, with higher GDP levels fostering a greater emphasis on sustainability This shift encourages the adoption of environmentally friendly technologies, improved waste treatment systems, and the development of eco-friendly products, despite the higher costs associated with these advancements Ultimately, investing in sustainable practices becomes essential for balancing economic growth with environmental preservation.
In conclusion, the main result is that the economic growth and environmental quality have a positive relationship (positive sign of LnGDP) but at diminishing rate (negative sign of )
CONCLUSIONS AND POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS
Conclusions
The study explored the relationship between economic growth and environmental quality by focusing on finding the relationship between CO2 and factors that can affect economic growth especially GDP
Our empirical analysis reveals a positive yet diminishing relationship between economic growth and environmental quality, characterized by a reverse U-shape Initially, at lower GDP levels, increases in GDP lead to higher emissions However, as GDP rises to higher levels, CO2 emissions tend to decrease, indicating a shift towards more sustainable practices.
In conclusion, the economic growth will help to reduce the CO2 if it reaches the high level of development.
Policy recommendations
Here we can have some policy recommendations to improve the relationship between economic growth and environmental quality
Education is the cornerstone of environmental protection, as it empowers citizens to understand its significance and fosters the successful implementation of future policies By focusing on educating the younger generation, who are more receptive to change, we can instill a sense of responsibility towards the environment It is crucial to teach them the importance of taking action to safeguard our planet while pursuing economic growth Encouraging youth to limit pollution during globalization efforts will create a more sustainable future.
Developing countries can assist each other by transferring advanced technology through Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) or Official Development Assistance (ODA) This technology is crucial for promoting sustainability, particularly in implementing low-carbon, low-emission clean energy solutions that significantly reduce energy consumption However, many developing nations, especially the least developed ones, encounter challenges in acquiring, adapting, and effectively utilizing these technologies for sustainable development, as well as in building their productive capacities To safeguard the planet, it is essential for every country to participate in the transition toward a low-carbon economy.
To effectively identify solutions, we must first recognize the underlying problems, particularly concerning GDP levels Research indicates a reverse U-shaped relationship between GDP and CO2 emissions; specifically, in developed economies, higher GDP correlates with reduced CO2 emissions This finding serves as a compelling incentive for countries to strive for elevated GDP levels, highlighting the importance of economic growth in addressing environmental concerns.
Developing countries must implement effective environmental policies and regulations to ensure accountability in protecting the environment, especially as GDP growth often leads to increased CO2 emissions It is crucial to establish guidelines for waste treatment in factories and industrial areas Governments should develop management strategies that mitigate the negative impacts of globalization on environmental quality Ultimately, economic development should go hand in hand with environmental sustainability to foster a healthier planet.
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