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MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING THE STATE BANK OF VIETNAM BANKING UNIVERSITY OF HO CHI MINH CITY NGUYEN VAN TUNG ACCESS TO CAPITAL AND GROWTH OF VIETNAMESE SMALL AND MEDIUM ENTERPRISES DOCTORAL DISSERTATION IN FINANCE AND BANKING HO CHI MINH CITY - NOVEMBER 2023 MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING THE STATE BANK OF VIETNAM BANKING UNIVERSITY OF HO CHI MINH CITY NGUYEN VAN TUNG ACCESS TO CAPITAL AND GROWTH OF VIETNAMESE SMALL AND MEDIUM ENTERPRISES SUMMARY OF DOCTORAL DISSERTATION Major: Finance and Banking Code: 34 02 01 Academic Advisor: Assoc Prof PhD HA VAN DUNG HO CHI MINH CITY - NOVEMBER 2023 i DECLARATION OF AUTHORSHIP I hereby declare that the thesis "Access to capital and growth of Vietnamese small and medium enterprises" has never been reported for a PhD degree at any training institution This is the author's own research work The data and research results of the thesis have clear and honest origins Content quoted from other research documents is fully cited Ho Chi Minh City, November 14, 2023 Author Nguyen Van Tung ii ACKNOWLEDGMENT First of all, I would like to respectfully express my deep gratitude to my science instructor, Assoc PhD Ha Van Dung, who enthusiastically guided and encouraged me throughout the process of conducting research and completing this thesis I would like to convey my heartfelt appreciation to the School Board of Directors and the professors personally instructing NCS 24 class, who have passionately imparted significant knowledge and experience during the course I would also like to respectfully thank the teachers of the postgraduate faculty, especially the associate professors Dr Le Dinh Hac and Ms Vu Thi Thu Ha enthusiastically supported and created the best conditions throughout the process of studying and implementing my thesis Finally, I would like to express my sincere thanks to my colleagues working at Banking University and my family for encouraging and helping me a lot throughout the process of implementing and completing the thesis Ho Chi Minh City, November 14, 2023 Nguyen Van Tung iii ABSTRACT There have been many studies concluding that small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) have difficulty accessing capital, as well as suggesting that the "capital supply" side and the authorities need to create better conditions to support capital loans to SMEs However, what about enterprises (the "demand side")? In fact, there are businesses that are still passive, not ready to take advantage of loans, or that have used loans that have not yielded good results If the core goal of each business is to make profit, then, from the perspective of the overall economy, it is even more important for the business to contribute to the labor market and the market for goods and services In order for a business to become large, it must go through a process of transformation Growth begins with a small unit Therefore, the topic "Access to capital and growth of Vietnamese small and medium enterprises" was carried out to study the impact of capital access and environmental factors on the growth of SMEs in Vietnam, contributing to supplementary research documents on enterprise growth and related policy implications The topic has analyzed the current situation of Vietnamese SMEs in the period 2005– 2021, using the Bayesian estimation method with the support of Stata 17.0 software to study the impact of factors on business growth The sample of data extracted according to the identification code of each enterprise over the years from 2005 to 2015 was 2,073 enterprises Using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) estimation technique and selecting Gibbs and Metropolis-Hastings samples on a panel dataset with an observed sample of 4,256, the results show that debt has a positive effect on firm labor and revenue growth Equity has a positive effect on firm asset growth In addition, the study also found that the size and age of the enterprise, the level of education and training of the entrepreneur, and the export and industry factors all have an impact on the growth of the enterprise Keywords: SMEs growth, equity, liability, Bayes, Vietnam iv TABLE OF CONTENTS DECLARATION OF AUTHORSHIP i ACKNOWLEDGMENT ii ABSTRACT iii LIST OF ACRONYMS vii LIST OF TABLES viii Chapter 1: INTRODUCTION 1.1 REASONS FOR CHOOSING THE TOPIC 1.2 RESEARCH OBJECTIVES 1.2.1 General goals 1.2.2 Specific goals 1.3 RESEARCH QUESTION 1.4 OBJECT AND SCOPE OF THE STUDY 1.4.1 Research subjects 1.4.2 Research scope 1.5 RESEARCH METHODS 1.6 NEW CONTRIBUTIONS OF THE THESIS 1.6.1 Scientifically 1.6.2 In terms of practice 1.7 CONTENT LAYOUT OF THE THESIS CONCLUSION OF CHAPTER Chapter 2: THEORETICAL OVERVIEW 2.1 ECONOMIC GROWTH 2.2 BUSINESS GROWTH v 2.2.1 Growth theory is based on the boundary theory of the firm 2.2.2 Growth theory is based on the life cycle 2.2.3 Growth theory is based on gene combinations 2.2.4 Measuring enterprise growth 2.3 ACCESS TO CAPITAL 2.3.1 Definition of access to capital 2.3.1.1 Capital concept 2.3.1.2 Access concept 2.3.1.3 Factors affecting 2.3.2 Measuring access to capital 2.4 IMPACT OF ACCESS TO CAPITAL ON ENTERPRISE GROWTH 11 2.5 IMPACT OF ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS ON ENTERPRISE GROWTH11 2.6 RELATED EXPERIMENTAL STUDIES 12 2.7 DISCUSSING SCIENCE GAPS 12 CONCLUSION OF CHAPTER 13 Chapter 3: RESEARCH METHODS 14 3.1 ESTABLISH HYPOTHESES AND RESEARCH MODEL 14 3.1.1 Research hypotheses 14 3.1.2 Model 14 3.2 DATA 17 3.3 RESEARCH METHODS 17 3.3.1 Descriptive statistics method 17 3.3.2 Quantitative methods 17 3.3.2.1 Theory of Bayesian statistics 18 vi 3.3.2.2 Quantitative techniques 18 CONCLUSION OF CHAPTER 19 Chapter 4: RESEARCH RESULTS 20 4.1 RESEARCH RESULTS AND DISCUSSION OF RESEARCH RESULTS 20 4.1.1 Bayesian simulation results 20 4.1.2 Bayesian estimation results tests 22 4.2 DISCUSS RESEARCH RESULTS 25 4.2.1 The impact of capital access on business growth 25 4.2.2 The impact of environmental factors on enterprise growth 26 CONCLUSION OF CHAPTER 27 Chapter 5: CONCLUSION AND POLICY SUGGESTIONS 28 5.1 CONCLUSION 28 5.1.1 The impact of capital access on the growth of SMEs in Vietnam 28 5.1.2 The impact of environmental factors on the growth of SMEs in Vietnam 28 5.2 POLICY COMMENTS 29 5.2.1 For Enterprise 29 5.2.2 For the banking system and credit institutions 30 5.2.3 For relevant authorities 31 5.3 LIMITATIONS OF THE THESIS 32 CONCLUSION OF CHAPTER 33 REFERENCES i PUBLISHED DOCUMENTS RELATED TO THE THESIS ix vii LIST OF ACRONYMS Acronyms English meaning ADB Asian Development Bank BF Bayes Factor BKHĐT Ministry of Planning and Investment CIEM Central Institute for Economic Management DOE Department of Economics of the University of Copenhagen id Identification ILSSA Institute of Labor Science and Social Affairs OECD Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development UNU-WIDER United Nations University Institute for World Development Economics VCCI Vietnam Chamber of Commerce and Industry WB World Bank viii LIST OF TABLES Table 2.1: Results of impact trends of equity and debt 12 Table 4.1: Likelihood model 20 Table 4.2: Bayesian simulation results of labor growth model 21 Table 4.3: Bayesian simulation results of revenue growth 21 Table 4.4: Bayesian simulation results of asset growth model 21 Table 4.5: Posterior probability of labor growth model 23 Table 4.6: Posterior probability of revenue growth model 24 Table 4.7: Posterior probability of asset growth model 24 Table 4.8: Comparison of research results with research expectations 25 28 Chapter 5: CONCLUSION AND POLICY SUGGESTIONS 5.1 CONCLUSION The goal of the topic is to study the impact of access to capital and environmental factors on the growth of SMEs in Vietnam, thereby suggesting policies related to access to capital and environmental factors in the growth issues of Vietnamese SMEs The topic combines the use of descriptive statistics and Bayesian quantitative methods with Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques, Gibbs sampling, and Metropolis-Hastings to analyze the current situation of Vietnamese SMEs and the factors affecting business growth in the period 2005–2022 The level and impact trend of the variables are expressed by point estimate values and interval estimates tested with posterior probabilities, as shown in Chapter The impact results of the variables are detected as follows: 5.1.1 The impact of capital access on the growth of SMEs in Vietnam Regarding the impact of access to capital, the research results of the project have discovered that two representative components of access to capital, access to equity capital and access to liability, have an impact on the growth of SMEs in Vietnam, as follows: (1) Impact of Liability: Liability has a positive impact on labor growth and revenue growth and a negative impact on asset growth (2) Impact of Equity: Equity has a positive impact on asset growth and a negative impact on labor growth and revenue growth 5.1.2 The impact of environmental factors on the growth of SMEs in Vietnam In addition to the gender variable, which does not clearly show the trend of impact on business growth, the remaining variables clearly show the trend and level of impact through tests and the reliability of the posterior probability Specifically: (1) Enterprise size has a positive impact on labor growth, revenue growth, and asset growth (2) Enterprise age has a negative impact on labor growth, revenue growth, and asset growth (3) Entrepreneurs with university and postgraduate degrees, colleges, and vocational schools have a negative impact on revenue growth and asset growth; entrepreneurs receiving vocational training without a degree have a positive impact on labor growth and asset growth (4) Exporting enterprises have a negative impact on revenue growth and asset growth 29 (5) Paper industry; sewing clothes; food and drink; fabricated metal products; wood; Furniture, jewelry, musical equipment, watches, toys, and medical equipment have a negative impact on labor growth and asset growth In summary, with certain results achieved, the research has supplemented and developed literature on the topic of capital access and business growth, with a focus on SMEs in a developing country like Vietnam This empirical study can be considered an answer to the previous authors' suggestion of further research on the growth of SMEs and is a reliable reference for organizations with concerns about the growth of SMEs in emerging countries At the same time, the research can be seen as a scientific and practical basis for proposing policies to support capital access and SME growth 5.2 POLICY COMMENTS With the results achieved and conclusions drawn from Section 5.1, some comments on the policy of the topic are as follows: 5.2.1 For Enterprise * Related to capital access The results of liability having a positive impact on labor growth and revenue growth show that, in general trends, SMEs have made good use of loan capital, contributing to the growth of the labor market and commodity market This trend is also consistent with the general world situation as presented in previous chapters In cases where liability has a negative impact on asset growth, in addition to the analysis in Chapter 4, there may also be a substitution of roles between equity and liability in different periods But from the perspective of individual businesses, the negative impact of liability on asset growth can also be due to the ineffective use of liability by the business According to Serrasqueiro et al (2018), SMEs' dependence on liability financing leads to repayment of principal and interest, thus reducing cash flow Reduced cash flow means companies have more difficulty meeting commitments to creditors and reduces internal financing, which in turn has a negative impact on corporate investment activities In summary, based on the research results, businesses can promote access to capital by simultaneously adding equity and liability sources to accelerate business growth * Related to environmental factors From the results of the impact of enterprise size and age on growth and the above conclusions, enterprises, in addition to promoting increased access to capital, also pay attention to taking advantage of the position and scale of the enterprise in accessing capital as well as 30 external resources in general On the other hand, it is necessary to pay attention to the timing and progress of accessing external capital sources From results related to education, export factors, and production and enterprise industries, enterprises should pay more attention to training and application issues, investment in research and development, and new technology, and at the same time, improve production and enterprise processes and methods For example, in the export sector, it is possible to find sources of raw materials to replace imports, improve export expertise, actively seek suitable partners, reduce costs, and mobilize support from agencies through management functions, participating in associations and linkages to take advantage of cost advantages of scale 5.2.2 For the banking system and credit institutions It can be said that capital is the most important factor among the input factors for the production and business operations of enterprises Therefore, capital providers are commercial banks and credit institutions, which play an indispensable cooperative role throughout the operation of each enterprise According to Fehder and Hochberg (2014), in addition to direct impacts on individual companies, capital providers can play an important role in the ecosystem by creating systemic and ripple effects in branches The results of liability having a positive impact on labor growth and revenue growth show that businesses that have used loan capital have had good results This is a signal that commercial banks and credit institutions need to refer to in order to have practical action programs to support enterprises in their production and business activities to achieve efficiency and growth There need to be synchronous solutions to increase loan capital for businesses With many businesses still reporting difficulty accessing loans, capital providers need to consider solving these difficulties Commercial banks and credit institutions need to increase the establishment of clearer and more convenient information portals to promote transactions with businesses, both directly and indirectly In addition, it is necessary to open direct dialogue channels with businesses to support policy consultation activities and survey operational information from businesses It is necessary to develop specific and clear standards to assess creditworthiness and authenticate business credit ratings The appraisal work must be timely and accurate On the other hand, commercial banks and credit institutions need to coordinate with credit guarantee funds to increase lending capacity to businesses The research results that liability has a negative impact on asset growth may be a normal sign due to the substitution of the roles of equity and liability capital, but it may also be due to the high cost of liability, which partly affects the profits of enterprises and therefore 31 affects asset growth In fact, for Vietnamese SMEs, due to being governed by the law of asymmetric information, borrowing by Vietnamese enterprises is also subject to many risks with high interest rates and many hidden costs incurred Part of the explanation for why businesses not borrow capital may be due to interest rates (Rand et al., 2015) Due to the pressure to pay principal and high interest, it leads to a decrease in internal financial resources, negatively affecting investment growth On the other hand, in a context where businesses cannot access loans from commercial banks, businesses are forced to look for other unofficial loan sources that come with many risks and high costs Therefore, commercial banks and credit institutions should simplify procedures to reduce costs, waste transaction time, and reduce lending interest rates Regulations related to loan terms, credit extension periods, the disbursement process, and conditions related to the mortgage of loan assets need to be convenient and feasible for businesses The results of enterprise size have a positive impact on all three scales, showing the important role of enterprise size Only when enterprises meet certain conditions can they afford to apply financial leverage to production and business activities According to Oakey (1984), enterprises need liability to grow This view is consistent with the trade-off theory of capital structure, which states that enterprises take advantage of tax shields to achieve optimal benefits Therefore, commercial banks and credit institutions need to promote more support for enterprises that are growth-oriented and in the growth stage In addition, commercial banks and credit institutions need to pay attention to enterprises in the export sector due to the fact that operating costs in this sector are high At the same time, it is necessary to support businesses in traditional manufacturing industries 5.2.3 For relevant authorities Based on the above-mentioned theory and reality, Vietnamese SMEs as well as SMEs around the world often have difficulty accessing loans due to a lack of information reflecting the operations and performance of enterprises It also often costs a lot of money to get loans But the research results show that Vietnamese SMEs using loans have a positive impact on enterprise growth, which is a result worth encouraging and promoting Therefore, authorities should promote support for enterprises, specifically by promulgating timely and consistent policies and promulgating regulations on interest rate support from the state budget State agencies also need support in developing information sources related to the operations and performance of enterprises In particular, it is necessary to unify standards for evaluation, classification, and 32 credit rating of enterprisees to increase the opportunity to obtain loan capital and reduce interest rates and general costs related to borrowing capital for enterprisees It is necessary to create favorable conditions for the Bank for Social Policies to promote the implementation of policy credit programs On the other hand, authorities need to strengthen cooperation with the world's financial institutions to find incentives to support the growth of Vietnamese SMEs As the research results show, enterprise scale has a positive impact on enterprise growth, consistent with the general situation of Vietnamese enterprises being large enterprises that attract more workers and have higher profit margins Therefore, the growth process of converting from small enterprises to large enterprises is an important and pervasive success step that contributes to the labor market and the national goods and services market Research results also show that some industries, such as garments, manufactured metal products, and wood, have a negative impact on enterprise growth, showing that these industries need support to transform production methods, increase scale, and apply advanced scientific technology On the other hand, exporting enterprises have a negative impact on enterprise growth and are related to imports and high operating costs as compared to the current situation of Vietnamese SMEs The state should also have policies to differentiate and give preferential treatment to key industries and fields, building industries according to green and environmentally sustainable standards; supporting small enterprises in terms of operations and import-export experience; promoting domestic production of alternative raw materials; and supporting connections with foreign enterprises The results of research on the group of entrepreneurs with educational and training qualifications have a negative impact on enterprise growth, possibly due to many reasons But if we compare the general situation of the labor market and job search in our country today, it can be said that the results of education and training are not linked to practical activities Therefore, in order for Vietnamese SMEs to grow their education and training activities, it is necessary to increase the training of operational skills in schools for students Schools build effective practical experiment centers It is necessary to increase the connection between schools and enterprises, creating conditions for learners to have the opportunity to experience and approach the reality of production and enterprise environments On the other hand, it is necessary to create motivation for healthy competition in education and training and increase control over training quality 5.3 LIMITATIONS OF THE THESIS The topic has contributed; however, there are limitations 33 (1) In terms of data, due to objective conditions, it is difficult to obtain a large observation sample of SMEs data for the world and in Vietnam (World Bank, 2008), because data for SMEs is lacking standardization, which does not ensure consistent variation for each unit over a long period of time over years Due to difficult practical conditions and limited capabilities, each year thousands of enterprises are established while thousands of enterprises are dissolved Therefore, if there is a larger research sample, it will certainly be more convenient to analyze and evaluate the impact of variables (2) With a larger sample and more complete information, the case of missing observations will be avoided, and more main explanatory variables and control variables can be included in the model As for this topic, on the explanatory variable side, capital access can be supplemented with measurement criteria such as type, cost, conditions, time, and risk of capital according to capital access theory (Merton, 1995) On the control variable side, industry factors can include more dummy variables in the model to reflect the impact of more manufacturing industries On the other hand, company size can also be broken down further to examine in more detail the growth characteristics of enterprises according to scale Therefore, the proposed topic should be supplemented with the stated limitations for future research CONCLUSION OF CHAPTER Chapter presented a summary of the research results for the topic from Chapter 4, after estimating the parameters and 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