(Luận văn thạc sĩ) emission inventory analysis towards the net zero target a case study in can tho city, viet nam

INTRODUCTION

Research Overview

Human-induced greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are the primary cause of climate change, posing significant challenges such as rising sea levels, melting glaciers, and increased natural disasters In response, 195 countries signed the Paris Agreement in 2015, aiming to limit global temperature rise to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, with efforts to restrict it to 1.5°C To meet this commitment, emissions must peak by 2025 and be reduced by 43% by the end of the decade Despite commitments from 88 countries, which represent nearly 79% of global GHG emissions, emissions surged by 0.9% in 2022, indicating that the world is far from achieving its goals Current Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) suggest a potential temperature rise of 2.4°C to 2.6°C by century's end, highlighting a significant credibility gap as actual emissions reduction efforts by national governments fall short of necessary commitments.

Vietnam ranks thirteenth on the Global Climate Risk Index 2021, making it one of the countries most vulnerable to climate change while simultaneously being a rising greenhouse gas emitter The nation has seen rapid economic growth, with an annual increase of over 5% from 1990 to 2017, resulting in a fourfold rise in Gross National Income (GNI) per capita and lifting over 40 million people out of poverty This growth has significantly improved Vietnam's Human Development Index, which rose from 0.475 to 0.703 However, the country faces a projected 150% increase in electricity demand by 2030, and its reliance on fossil fuels has led to it becoming one of the most GHG-intensive economies in East Asia.

Viet Nam is actively working to combat climate change, highlighted by the Prime Minister's strong commitment at the 26th United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP26) to achieve net-zero carbon emissions.

2050, a lot of policies have been issued and put into effect to realize this ambitious goal

In January 2022, Vietnam issued Decree 06/2022/ND-CP, mandating greenhouse gas (GHG) emitting facilities to create and implement GHG emission mitigation plans The National Green Growth Strategy for 2021-2030, with a vision for 2050, aims to reduce GHG emission intensity per GDP unit and promote a greener economy The National Climate Change Strategy (NCCS) for 2050 requires all establishments emitting 3,000 tCO2e or more to conduct annual GHG inventories starting in 2022 At COP27, Vietnam enhanced its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC), committing to a 15.8% reduction in GHG emissions compared to the Business As Usual (BAU) scenario, and a 43.5% reduction with international assistance by 2030 However, these ambitious goals are not yet reflected in local policies and action plans.

Cities contribute over 80% of global GDP while being responsible for 70% of carbon dioxide emissions, highlighting a critical environmental challenge (World Bank, 2020) With urban populations exceeding half of the global total, driven by improved access to education, healthcare, and job opportunities, this trend is projected to rise to 68% by mid-century (United Nations, 2018) However, without effective planning and management, rapid urbanization poses significant challenges While urbanization itself does not directly cause emissions, the development patterns and energy consumption in cities do As hubs of political and economic influence, cities play a crucial role in reducing greenhouse gas emissions, addressing climate change, and shaping a sustainable future for the planet.

Vietnam's urbanization is accelerating, with projections indicating that the urban population will exceed the rural population by 2050 The country comprises 85 cities, which contribute to two-thirds of its total CO2 emissions The development and management of these cities are crucial for achieving Vietnam's Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) and net-zero goals Despite the central government's ambitious commitments, there are currently no net-zero pledges at the subnational level Therefore, instead of a broad national mitigation strategy, there is a pressing need for specific, localized plans tailored to each city.

This study analyzes the current and future greenhouse gas (GHG) emission levels in Can Tho, a centrally governed city in Vietnam's Mekong Delta, while reviewing national and subnational mitigation policies to identify emission gaps and abatement potentials Based on this analysis, the study will offer tailored recommendations for GHG emission reduction that reflect the city's unique circumstances The findings will serve as essential inputs for Can Tho to formulate its roadmap and action plan towards achieving net-zero emissions, in accordance with central government policies.

1.1.2 Research questions, objectives and tasks

The following questions will be addressed in the research:

1 What is the future estimation of GHG emissions of Can Tho under different scenarios?

2 Is the city on track to satisfy the 2030 emission reduction targets of the NDC of Viet Nam, significantly contributing to the net zero targets?

3 What are emission reduction opportunities for the city? h

4 What are the strengths and weaknesses of Can Tho to reduce emissions, in alignment with the NDC of Viet Nam and the net-zero target by 2050?

5 What should Can Tho city do to further abate GHG emissions?

Based on the identified research questions, research objectives and tasks are developed and presented in Table 1-1.

Table 1-1 Research objectives and tasks

Identify key features of Can Tho’s emissions

 Review and analyze the GHG emission level of Can Tho;

 Consolidate relevant data and make comparisons between emissions of Can Tho, other cities and the national

 The current emission level of Can Tho city, compared with other cities and the national level;

Track Can Tho’s emission level against the 1.5 o C goal and the net zero target

The Business as Usual (BAU) scenario for Can Tho, grounded in Vietnam's Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC), considers the projected growth in Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) and population rates, alongside the city's current emission levels This approach aims to estimate the city's emissions by 2030, assuming no mitigation measures are implemented.

 Policy scenarios (based on current mitigation policies/programs & targets of Can Tho city and the central government) to

Emission reduction gaps among the scenarios and NDC targets h

Objective Task Output stocktake current efforts of the city in emission abatement;

 Science-based target (SBT) scenario to set the drastic emission reduction target for the city to be in alignment with the 1.5 o C goal and the net zero target

Analyze emission abatement opportunities of the city and propose appropriate recommendations for the city to reduce its carbon footprint and move towards the net-zero target by 2050

 Demonstrate emission abatement potentials of the city;

 Analyze the strengths and weaknesses of the city in reducing emissions and achieving the net zero target;

 Propose recommendations for Can Tho city to reduce its emissions and move toward a net zero future

 Recommendations for Can Tho to reduce emissions, based on potential areas for reduction and the city‘s strengths and weaknesses

1.1.3 Objects and scope of the research

The objects and scope of the research can be defined as follows:

This research analyzes the greenhouse gas (GHG) emission levels in Can Tho City and aims to develop recommendations for reducing these emissions The study aligns with Vietnam's latest Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) and supports the country's commitment to achieving net-zero emissions by 2050.

 Scope of geographical location: Within the timeframe and scope of this thesis, only one city of Viet Nam will be chosen, which is Can Tho Scope of time: h

Emission analysis for the research mainly focuses on the period of 2020-2030, but emission reduction recommendations will go beyond 2030, with a vision to 2050 to cover the net zero target

Figure 1-1 Maps of the study area (Can Tho city, Viet Nam)

1.1.4 The structure of this Thesis

The thesis comprises five chapters, beginning with an overview of global and national initiatives to mitigate anthropogenic emissions and the importance of engaging sub-nations in climate action Chapter 1 outlines the research objectives, scope, and questions Chapter 2 reviews existing literature on greenhouse gas (GHG) emission inventories and analyses at various scales, along with prior studies on science-based targets (SBT) and emission reduction potential Chapter 3 details the research methodology, including emission analysis and the creation of three emission scenarios, supported by a table of data sources and uncertainty levels for validation Chapter 4 presents the results of data analysis, highlighting emission gaps in Can Tho city across different scenarios and exploring the city's potential for further emission reductions It also evaluates the strengths and weaknesses of the city's reduction strategies Finally, Chapter 5 summarizes key findings and offers recommendations for Can Tho to align its GHG reduction efforts with Vietnam's Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) and net-zero targets, while also discussing research limitations and suggestions for future studies.

1.1.5 The logical framework of the thesis

Figure 1-2 presents the logical framework of the thesis

Figure 1-2 The logical framework of the thesis

1.1.6 Matrix of learning outcomes for the Master’s Thesis

The expected results of the research are summarized in Table 1-2:

 Result 1: Future projection of GHG emission under different scenarios h

 Result 2: Gaps in local climate & development policies/projects and the net zero target pathway

 Result 3: Emission reduction opportunities for the city

 Result 4: SWOT of Can Tho to reduce emissions, in alignment with the NDC of Viet Nam and the net-zero target by 2050

 Result 5: A set of recommendations for Can Tho city to reduce emissions and move towards net zero

Table 1-2 Matrix of learning outcomes of the Master‘s Thesis

PLO Result 1 Result 2 Result 3 Result 4 Result 5

Mastering the fundamental, interdisciplinary knowledge and methodologies to demonstrate future projection of GHG emission under different scenarios

Mastering the fundamental, interdisciplinary knowledge and methodologies to develop recommendations to reduce emissions

Being able to analyze the GHG emission and project future emission scenarios

Identifying the emission gaps among different scenarios & the net zero pathway

Identifying emission reduction opportunities based on the current and projected emission level as well as socio-economic features of the city

Understanding and developing systematic thinking, necessary knowledge for

Applying knowledge to solve the problems in CC mitigation

Applying knowledge to solve the problems in CC mitigation

PLO5 Having skills of Having skills of Having skills of h

The PLO emphasizes collaboration with individuals, agencies, and organizations both domestically and internationally to effectively address climate change issues.

Having skills of research and development

Having skills of research and development

Having skills of research and development

Dynamic, confident, persistent, enthusiastic, and management

Promoting social and community responsibility, along with professional ethics, is essential for the integrity of scientific research outcomes Adapting to a multicultural environment fosters harmony among stakeholders, ensuring compliance with corporate social responsibility (CSR) and sustainable development Upholding strong social ethics is crucial in supporting vulnerable populations affected by climate change while adhering to legal standards.

Social and community responsibility, along with professional ethics, are essential in the realm of scientific research Adapting to multicultural environments fosters harmony among stakeholders, contributing to corporate social responsibility (CSR) and sustainable development Upholding strong social morals is crucial for supporting vulnerable populations affected by climate change, while strict adherence to legal regulations ensures ethical practices.

Emphasizing social and community responsibility alongside professional ethics is crucial in scientific research, particularly in adapting to multicultural environments It is essential to maintain harmony among stakeholders while ensuring compliance with legal standards Additionally, fostering good social morals and supporting vulnerable populations in the face of climate change are vital components of ethical practice in today’s interconnected world.

PLO Result 1 Result 2 Result 3 Result 4 Result 5

Having responsibility for researching, creating new knowledge, and offering new ideas on climate change mitigation

Having responsibility for researching, creating new knowledge, and offering new ideas on climate change mitigation

Having responsibility for researching, creating new knowledge, and offering new ideas on climate change mitigation

Overview of Can Tho

Can Tho, the fourth largest city in Vietnam, is situated in the Mekong Delta, one of the country's most climate-vulnerable regions It plays a crucial role in the socio-economic development of the Mekong Delta and aims to enhance its significance in the coming years As of 2021, Can Tho had a population of 1,246,993, with a population density of 884 people per square kilometer, which is three times the national average, ranking it 12th in the country.

Can Tho, a city within the 63 provinces and cities nationwide, currently has an urban population of 860,490, representing 70.02% of its total population According to the latest draft of the Master Development Plan, the city's population is projected to grow by 1% annually from 2021 to 2030, reaching over 1.37 million by the year 2030.

The Draft Master Plan for Socio-Economic Development of Can Tho City (2021-2030, vision to 2050) highlights an average GRDP growth rate of 6.6% from 2010 to 2019, comparable to the Mekong Delta and Vietnam's growth rates of 6.3%, but lower than major cities like Hanoi (7.4%), Ho Chi Minh City (7.7%), Da Nang (7.5%), and Hai Phong (16.1%) The service sector leads with a 7.3% annual growth rate, followed by industry and construction at 6.4%, while agriculture lags at 2.1% This indicates a strategic shift towards high-added-value sectors, with agriculture's share in Can Tho's economy projected to nearly halve over the next decade By 2030, the service sector is expected to contribute over 50% to Can Tho's GRDP, aligning with national trends, reflecting a similar economic structure between Can Tho and the nation during 2021-2030.

Figure 1-3 The economic structure of Can

Source: Can Tho Statistical Year Book 2020

Figure 1-4 The economic structure of

Source: Viet Nam Statistical Year Book 2020

Figure 1-5 The projected economic structure of Can Tho in 2030

Source: Draft Master Plan for Socio-Economic

Development of Can Tho City for the period 2021-

Figure 1-6 The projected economic structure of Viet Nam in 2030

Source: Resolution 81/2023/HQ15 on National Master Plan for the period 2021-2030, vision to 2050 h

According to the forecasted socio-economic indicators for Can Tho, the city aims for an annual GRDP growth rate of 9% from 2021 to 2030 This growth is projected to result in a more than doubling of the GRDP, increasing from 89,247 million dongs in 2020 to 190,555 million dongs by 2030 In 2020, the commercial and services sector contributed over half of Can Tho's GRDP at 51.27%, followed by industry and construction at 30.84% This trend is expected to continue, driven by the rising growth rates in these sectors throughout the forecast period.

Table 1-3 Forecasted key socio-economic indicators of Can Tho, 2020-2030

Passenger traffic transport demand 1 mil passenger.km 5,300 7,059 9,402 1.77

Freight traffic transport demand 2 mil Tonne.km 867 1,210 1,690 1.95

Source: Can Tho‘s Statistical Yearbook 2021 & Draft Master Plan for Socio-Economic Development of Can Tho

City for the period 2021-2030, vision to 2050

1 Assumingly increase 5.9% per year based on the national average rise in the Environemt Strategic Assessment Report of the National Master Development Plan for the Duration 2021-2030, vision to 2050

2 Assumingly increase 6.9% per year based on the national average rise in the Environemt Strategic Assessment Report of the National Master Development Plan for the Duration 2021-2030, vision to 2050 h

Can Tho, one of Vietnam's five centrally governed cities, boasts an average GRDP per capita that exceeds the national average It is projected to reach over 177 million dongs in the near future.

By 2030, Can Tho's GRDP per capita is anticipated to increase significantly, more than doubling from 2021 levels, with a remarkable growth rate of 2.47 times This economic expansion, projected at 9% annually, will notably outpace the population growth rate of just 1% per year, indicating a shift towards higher-value economic models and the potential for advanced technology integration Furthermore, it is expected that Can Tho will experience a reduction in emissions per unit of GRDP during the 2021-2030 period, as the annual GRDP growth rate of approximately 9% surpasses the emission growth rate of 6.1%, according to Vietnam's National Climate Change Strategy.

2022) Meanwhile, the emission per capita of the city under the BAU scenario will increase significantly, due to the modest increase in the number of local residents

Can Tho city is increasingly experiencing the effects of climate change, with natural disasters such as tropical storms, droughts, and salt intrusion becoming more frequent and unpredictable over the past two decades This trend highlights the urgent need for adaptation strategies in response to the socio-economic impacts of climate change, as outlined in the Climate Change and Sea Level Rise Scenarios published by the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE).

(2021), if the sea level rises by 100 centimeters, around 56% of the city‘s area will be under water h

LITERATURE REVIEW

GHG emission inventory and analysis in the context of climate change

In a significant global commitment, 196 countries have ratified the Paris Agreement, vowing to implement substantial measures to lower national emissions and adapt to climate change impacts Central to this agreement are Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), where each signatory outlines its climate mitigation targets and relevant policies tailored to its unique context and capabilities, aiming to contribute to the crucial 1.5°C goal The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emphasizes the urgency of reducing global emissions by 45% by 2030 and achieving net zero by 2050 to limit temperature rise and avert irreversible damage to humanity and biodiversity.

Tracking greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and their sources is crucial for developing effective abatement solutions There are two primary methods for GHG inventory: production-based and consumption-based The production-based inventory focuses on emissions occurring within a country's borders, following the IPCC standard, which is widely used for national inventories submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change This method covers emissions from five key sectors: Energy, Industrial Processes and Product Use, Agriculture, Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry, and Waste However, studies indicate that the production-based approach may not accurately reflect a nation's carbon footprint, as it attributes emissions solely to producers without considering consumer impact In contrast, the consumption-based inventory offers a more holistic view by addressing carbon leakages and promoting equitable responsibility among nations, though it is more complex to calculate due to the need for data on both domestic and imported goods and services.

City-scale GHG emission inventory and analysis at the global level

While national commitments are important, cities play a crucial role in achieving climate goals by actively reducing their carbon footprints To meet scientific targets, cities must leverage their resources and leadership effectively Over the past decades, significant efforts have been made globally in emission inventory analysis and the creation of low-carbon development strategies for urban areas (Ibrahim et al., 2012) However, assessing city-level greenhouse gas emissions presents unique challenges, necessitating a blend of production- and consumption-based approaches (Ibrahim et al., 2012) Various tools and protocols have been utilized to conduct greenhouse gas emission inventories in cities worldwide (Bader).

Comparative analysis of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions across cities poses challenges due to varying methodologies, as highlighted by Bleischwitz (2009) and Kennedy et al (2011) The C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group's study on 79 member cities revealed significant consumption-based emissions outside city limits, emphasizing the need for targeted reduction strategies (C40, 2018) Research on CO2 emissions in 12 megacities in East Asia provided insights into emission characteristics and policy recommendations for low-carbon development (Sun et al., 2021) Wei et al (2021) assessed mitigation targets for 167 cities worldwide, revealing that while Asian cities have the highest total carbon emissions, developed countries exhibit greater per capita emissions Sovacool & Brown (2010) enriched the understanding of carbon footprints through a comparative analysis of 12 cities, establishing benchmarks for metropolitan emissions Ibrahim et al (2012) identified a pressing need for a globally standardized GHG emission inventory protocol after reviewing six international frameworks.

The Global Protocol for Community-Scale Greenhouse Gas Inventories (GPC), developed by the Greenhouse Gas Protocol and released in 2014, provides a structured approach for cities to account for and report their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions This protocol has been implemented in over 100 cities worldwide, categorizing urban emissions into three distinct scopes, as illustrated in Figure 2-1.

Figure 2-1 Sources and boundaries of urban GHG emissions

Source: WRI/WBCSD GHG Protocol, 2014a

Under this protocol, GHG emissions of cities cover 5 key sectors, including Stationary energy, Transportation, Waste, IPPU and Agriculture, Forestry and Other land use (AFOLU) as in Table 2-1

Table 2-1 Definition of the five emission source sectors of the GPC

Stationary energy All emissions from: h

 Fuel combustion of stationary sources

 Consumption of grid-supplied electricity, steam, heating or cooling

 Emissions that are unintentionally released during the production, delivery, and consumption of usable forms of energy

Transportation  Fuel combustion for transport vehicles

 Grid-supplied electricity for electric vehicles

Waste Emissions from solid waste and wastewater disposed and/or treated

IPPU Emissions from non-energy related industrial activities

AFOLU Emissions resulting from different activities such as in land use changes, methane (CH 4 ) generated during livestock digestion, and the management of nutrients for agricultural purposes

Source: WRI/WBCSD GHG Protocol, 2014a

The Bilan Carbone, developed by the French Environment and Energy Management Agency, is a widely-used method for greenhouse gas (GHG) emission inventory at the city level, employing an emission factor-based methodology similar to the Global Protocol for Community-Scale GHG Emission Inventories (GPC) This method encompasses all direct and indirect emissions, including some that are optional in the GPC protocol, resulting in a more comprehensive emission data set Instead of categorizing emissions into scopes, Bilan Carbone organizes emissions into 10 activity categories while also allowing for the conversion of results into GPC protocol sectors.

Most accounting tools utilize a standard formula that involves multiplying an emission factor by activity data However, variations in inventory scopes, sector divisions, data quality and availability, along with differing accounting methodologies, complicate comparisons between countries and cities.

GHG reduction and science-based targets

Science-based targets can be defined as feasible and measurable targets that are

The Paris Agreement aims to limit the global average temperature rise to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, representing a prominent science-based target (Andersen et al., 2021) A climate target is deemed science-based when it aligns with the latest climate science, taking into account historical CO2 levels and socio-economic development (Science Based Targets Network, 2020; Feleki & Moussiopoulos, 2021).

Figure 2-2 Definition of science-based climate targets

Source: Science Based Targets Network, 2020

The Science-based Target Initiative (SBTi) has gained traction in the business community, with over 1,000 global companies adopting its principles (Bjứrn et al., 2022) In response to this success, various methodologies have emerged for cities to establish science-based targets, including Deadline 2020, the One Planet City Challenge (OPCC), and the Tyndall Centre Although these methodologies share similarities in emission scopes and scientific rationale, they also exhibit key differences, as outlined in Table 2-2.

Table 2-2 Comparisons among different Science-based Target setting methodologies

Methodology Data input Emission scope

 2015 population and population growth until

Scope 1 & 2 Emissions reduction trajectory for the duration of 2016-2050, based on the 2015 level

Focusing on C40 cities, with a possibility to apply to all cities

OPCC  Emission inventory as Scope 1 & 2 Reduction targets Applicable to h

Methodology Data input Emission scope

Outcome Target users close as 2018 as possible

 Human Development Index for per capita 2030, based on 2018 levels all cities

Tyndall Centre  Global & city energy- related CO 2 emissions (2013-2017)

CO 2 emissions from aviation, shipping and military (with a projection for 2020-

 City energy-related CO 2 emissions (2019)

 A city-level carbon budget for CO 2 energy emissions

 The trajectory of CO 2 energy emissions until reaching net zero

Applicable to all cities, preferably UK cities

Source: Science Based Targets Network, 2020 & Faria et al, 2020 (consolidated by the author)

The OPCC methodology provides a straightforward approach utilizing readily available data, making it suitable for all cities, particularly those with limited data resources (Faria et al., 2020) In contrast, the Deadline 2020 framework focuses on easily obtainable data to establish an emission reduction trajectory, primarily targeting C40 cities Meanwhile, the Tyndall Centre methodology is more complex, concentrating solely on energy-related emissions Cities can choose the most appropriate methodology based on data availability and their specific objectives.

GHG emission inventory & abatement potential analysis in Viet Nam

In Viet Nam, the GHG inventory is usually conducted by the Central Government At the national level, the country has conducted six GHG emission inventories for 1994, 2000,

2010, 2013, 2014 & 2016 As one of the fastest-growing emitters in the region, the h emission level of Viet Nam in 2016 tripled the 1994 level, increasing from 103,839.30 to 316,734.96 ktCO 2 eq (MONRE, 2020)

Efforts to reduce emissions in specific sectors of Vietnam have been highlighted in recent studies Roy et al (2022) conducted a life-cycle assessment on the waste-to-electricity process, revealing that implementing green and renewable practices could significantly decrease greenhouse gas emissions However, it remains crucial for the government to restrict the expansion of fossil fuel-fired power plants to ensure long-term environmental sustainability Additionally, Nguyen et al (2019) analyzed the emission reduction potential of electric vehicles in Phu Quoc, indicating that with the right policy framework, CO2 emissions could be cut by 17-20% across various scenarios.

Several Vietnamese cities and provinces, including Ho Chi Minh City, Da Nang, Hoi An, Dong Ha, Dong Hoi, Binh Duong, Vinh, Tam Ky, and Can Tho, have conducted greenhouse gas (GHG) emission inventories with the assistance of international organizations, as reported by the Ho Chi Minh City Department of Environment and Natural Resources in 2021 and WWF-Viet Nam.

Ho Chi Minh City, as the largest emitter of greenhouse gases in Vietnam, reflects its significant economic development and population size Energy is identified as the primary contributor to emissions across various localities In 2017, JICA assisted the city in establishing a policy framework for greenhouse gas emission inventory and mitigation actions, revealing a potential reduction of up to 17% in GHG emissions compared to business-as-usual scenarios However, there is a notable lack of research on quantifying potential emission reductions from existing mitigation policies at the city level in Vietnam, highlighting the necessity for comprehensive studies to track emission abatement progress against national and local targets Understanding emission levels and gaps is crucial for cities to identify opportunities for reduction, emphasizing the urgent need for further research in this area.

Emission inventory of Can Tho

In 2019, Can Tho City became a member of the Global Covenant of Mayors for Climate & Energy, committing to significant climate action initiatives This includes enhancing climate resilience and adaptation, reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and conducting comprehensive GHG emission inventories.

In 2019, Nguyen et al estimated the total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Ninh Kieu district, Can Tho city, at 1,069,422 tCO2 eq, resulting in a per capita emission of 4.17 tCO2 eq, significantly higher than the city average of 3.47 tCO2 eq This elevated level is attributed to Ninh Kieu's role as the economic and tourist hub of the city, characterized by high population density and substantial transportation activity Notably, electricity consumption emerged as the primary contributor to GHG emissions, followed by fuel combustion, with cooking gas accounting for 94% of emissions To mitigate these emissions, it is crucial to promote electricity generated from renewable sources and electrify the cooking sector in the city.

Figure 2-3 Emission of Ninh Kieu district, Can Tho city by sources (tCO 2 eq)

In 2021, Can Tho engaged in the One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) organized by WWF-Viet Nam, during which it conducted a greenhouse gas (GHG) inventory utilizing the Bilan Carbone Method The total emissions recorded were 4,311,952 tCO2 equivalent, translating to approximately 3.47 tCO2 equivalent per capita (WWF, 2022).

In 2020, the Residential and Industrial sectors were the leading contributors to emissions in Can Tho city, representing 17.2% and 16.9% of total emissions, respectively Electricity consumption played a significant role, accounting for 56.3% of emissions in the Residential sector (418,680 tCO2 eq) and 79% in Industrial processes (578,754 tCO2 eq) This highlights the need for focused efforts on electricity conservation, efficiency enhancements, and the promotion of renewable energy sources to effectively address climate change in Can Tho city.

Figure 2-4 Emission of Can Tho city in 2020 by activity categories (tCO 2 eq)

Recent studies have enhanced our understanding of the city's current emission levels and identified key sectors for intervention However, they lack a detailed analysis of reduction potential and the establishment of suitable abatement targets, which are crucial for the city to effectively lower its carbon footprint in alignment with national and international objectives.

METHODOLOGY

Emission analysis

Emission analysis of Can Tho city is conducted mainly based on secondary data from available sources, including the GHG emission inventory report of the city in 2020 (WWF,

The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 is expected to have influenced socio-economic indicators, potentially impacting emission inventory results However, this effect is deemed minimal, as the "CO2 Emissions of All World Countries" report (Crippa et al., 2022) indicates that Vietnam's total emissions in 2020 were only 0.19% lower than in 2019 This data is utilized for the calculation and analysis in the research.

To provide a comprehensive overview of Can Tho's emissions and support a sectoral approach for emission reduction, the city's total emissions were categorized into five key sectors based on the Global Protocol for Community-Scale Greenhouse Gas Inventories These sectors include Stationary Energy, Transport, Waste, Industrial Processes and Product Use (IPPU), and Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) Emissions from electricity consumption and fuel combustion in stationary activities were allocated to the Stationary Energy sector, while emissions from personal travel and goods transport were combined in the Transport sector The Waste sector encompassed emissions from end-of-life waste, and emissions from construction and highways were grouped with non-energy emissions in the IPPU sector Additionally, emissions from agriculture and fishing were classified under AFOLU, with food-related emissions distributed across IPPU (processing), Transport (food transport), and AFOLU (food production).

The author consolidates data to compare the greenhouse gas (GHG) emission levels and intensities of Can Tho with other Vietnamese cities and the national average, highlighting Can Tho's unique emission characteristics Due to limited data availability, only cities with existing emission reports are analyzed Macroeconomic and population statistics are sourced from local and national statistical yearbooks, acknowledging that GHG emission inventories from different years may introduce data discrepancies However, these discrepancies are minimized by utilizing real Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) figures adjusted with the GDP deflator from the World Bank It is assumed that variations in emission levels between adjacent years are minimal.

Emission scenarios establishment

Three emission scenarios are developed and analyzed in this study: BAU, Policy & SBT scenarios

3.2.1 The business as usual scenario

The Business-As-Usual (BAU) scenario for Vietnam, based on the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) and the National Climate Change Strategy (NCCS), uses 2014 as the baseline year, with total emissions recorded at 284.0 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent Projections from the NCCS Technical Report indicate that, without significant mitigation efforts, Vietnam's emissions could rise to 927.9 million tonnes of CO2 eq by 2030 and reach 1,519.3 million tonnes by 2050 This would result in an annual emission growth rate of 6.1% from 2014 to 2030, followed by 3% from 2031 to 2040, and 1.9% from 2041 to 2050.

Can Tho, a unique locality in Vietnam, has a population of 1.24 million, slightly below the national average of 1.55 million as of 2020 However, its projected annual population growth rate of 1.1% by 2030 exceeds the national rate of 0.73%, indicating a convergence towards the national population levels The city's economic structure aligns with national trends, focusing on service sector growth while reducing reliance on agriculture by 2030 Emission intensity in Can Tho is comparable to the national average, with figures of 3.47 tCO2 eq/cap and 3.40 tCO2 eq/cap in 2020 Consequently, it is assumed that Can Tho's total emissions will increase at the same rate as the national emissions from 2020 to 2050, with 2020 set as the baseline year for emission projections due to data availability.

Can Tho is implementing seven key mitigation policies and projects aimed at reducing emissions, including the Action Plan for Climate Change Response (2020), Plan No 66/KH-UBND for the National Energy Efficiency Programme (March 22, 2021), and the Waste to Power (WTP) plant Additionally, the city is focusing on renewable energy uptake and follows the Prime Minister's Decision No 876/QG-TTg (July 22, 2022), which supports the transition to green energy and aims to mitigate carbon dioxide and methane emissions from transportation Furthermore, Plan No 110/KH-UBND (May 21, 2021) outlines further strategies for sustainable development.

The renewable energy (RE) development plan for Can Tho City from 2021 to 2025, with a vision extending to 2050, includes the Smart and Energy Efficient City Project (SEECP) Despite efforts to minimize redundancy among mitigation policies and projects, some overlaps may persist due to insufficient data and information.

The greenhouse gas (GHG) effect of policies and projects is assessed using the Policy and Action Standard of the Greenhouse Gas Protocol This assessment determines the total net change in GHG emissions by calculating the difference between emissions from the policy scenario and those from the baseline scenario (WRI/WBCSD GHG Protocol, 2014b).

Potentially-reduced emissions from enhancing energy efficiency are calculated based on

The equation E = ∑ (1) illustrates the total potentially reduced emissions (tCO2 eq), where rECn signifies the decrease in energy consumption by 2030 through improved energy efficiency This reduction is compared to the projected energy consumption outlined in the Low-carbon Society scenario report by the Can Tho Climate Change Coordination Office (CCCO) from 2016.

EF n represents the emission factor of fuel n is the consumed fuel (n = 1, 2,…, M) h

According to Vietnam's energy statistics from 2015 to 2020, the primary concern regarding energy loss is related to electricity Consequently, the potential reduction in emissions is estimated based on the savings achieved from minimizing electricity loss.

 Potentially-reduced emissions of reduced energy loss are calculated based on

Equation: E = Selectricity * EF power grid (2) where E represents the total potentially-reduced amount of emissions (tCO 2 eq)

S electricity represents the saved amount of electricity from reduced energy loss

EF power grid represents the emission factor of the national grid

From 2021 to 2025, electricity consumption in Can Tho is projected to grow at an average rate of 7.7% per year, followed by a 6.4% annual increase from 2026 to 2030 This forecast aligns with Decision No 3486/QD-UBND, issued on December 28, 2018, which outlines the city's electricity development plan for 2016-2025, with a vision extending to 2035.

The potential reduction in emissions from the expansion of water treatment plants (WTP) is determined using the equation E = EO WTP * EF power grid – EO WTP * EF WTP In this equation, EO WTP indicates the estimated annual electricity output from the installed capacity of the WTP.

The potential reduction in emissions from solar energy deployment can be calculated using the formula: EO solar * EF power grid – EO solar * EF solar energy Here, EO solar denotes the estimated annual electricity output generated from the installed solar capacity.

The emission factor for Vietnam's grid electricity and various energy sources is derived from Document No 1278/BDKH-TTBVTOD, dated December 31, 2022, which outlines the grid power emission factor (EF) for 2021, as referenced by Le (2022) in Table 3-1 It is important to recognize that as Vietnam's energy mix evolves, the grid power EF may decrease with an increased proportion of renewable energy However, due to uncertainties related to factors such as climate conditions and electricity output that can influence the national EF, it is assumed that the grid power emission factor remains constant.

In the transportation sector, emissions are assessed using a bottom-up approach based on the ASIF model, which considers Activity, modal Structure, Intensity of fuel use, and Fuel carbon content, as outlined by Tran et al (2020) The framework and relevant equations are illustrated in Figure 3-1.

Figure 3-1 The framework and equations for quantifying emission in the transport sector

(Adapted from Tran et al., 2020) h

According to the latest Draft Master Plan for Socio-Economic Development of Can Tho City for 2021-2030, a steady annual population growth rate of 1% is projected through 2030, with a long-term vision extending to 2050 The distribution of vehicle types is determined using data from Nguyen et al.

In 2021, due to a lack of data, the average travel coefficient and vehicle load factor for Can Tho are assumed to be similar to those of Hanoi, as outlined by Tran et al (2020) However, the bus load factor in Can Tho is estimated to be about one-quarter of that in Hanoi, reflecting the city's lower bus coverage The average travel distance for Can Tho has been adjusted downward from Hanoi based on area-specific considerations Energy consumption figures for motorbikes and cars are derived from Tran et al (2020), while bus energy consumption is based on the standards set by Circular 65/2014/TT-BGTVT, which outlines economic and technical norms for public bus transport Emission factors for fuel are sourced from relevant studies.

The 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories provide a framework for calculating potentially reduced emissions by increasing the modal share of public transport, as detailed in Table 3-1 This calculation can be performed using a specific equation outlined in the guidelines.

 Potentially-reduced emissions from increasing the modal share of public transport

Emission abatement potential analysis

This article examines Can Tho's potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by analyzing three key sectors outlined in the Global Protocol for Community-scale Greenhouse Gas Emission Inventories (GPC): Energy, Transport, and Waste By evaluating both the current emission levels and the reduction potentials within these sectors, the study aims to enhance existing policies and set more ambitious greenhouse gas reduction targets Notably, this research does not address emission abatement opportunities related to Industrial Processes and Product Use (IPPU) or Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Use (AFOLU).

Emission factor

The emission factors and unit conversion factors used in this research to calculate the emission amount are presented in the tables below

Energy carrier Unit Emission factor

Electricity (from national power grid) MWh 0.7221

Global Warming Potential

This research focuses on greenhouse gases, primarily Carbon Dioxide (CO2), Methane (CH4), and Nitrous Oxide (N2O) Additionally, it occasionally includes Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), Perfluorocarbons (PFCs), and Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) in the greenhouse gas emission inventory All gases are expressed in CO2 equivalent based on their global warming potential values over a 100-year time horizon.

GHGs Time horizon of 100 years

Source: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (2007)

Data sources and certainty level

Sources of all data used in this research are presented in Table 3-3 below

Table 3-3 Data sources and certainty level

No Data Data source Note

Statistical yearbook of cities/ provinces in corresponding years

Tho, Da Nang, Tam Ky,

Vinh, Hoi An, Dong Ha

GHG emission inventory reports carried out by WWF- Viet Nam and the Departments of Environment and Natural Resources (DONREs) of the cities/provinces

Data for inventories were gathered from official sources, including local Departments of Natural Resources and Environment (DONREs) and statistical yearbooks of cities and provinces However, it is important to acknowledge potential uncertainties due to the availability of this data.

GHG emission inventory report of HCMC carried out by HCMC‘s DONRE

Data for the inventories were collected from relevant departments of HCMC, but some uncertainties should be accepted due to the availability of data

4 Emission per cap data of

6 National emission level Nationally Determined

Contributions (NDC) of Viet Nam (version 2022) &

7 Electricity consumption of Can Tho

8 Emission factor of electricity grid

Decision No 1278/BDKH- TTBVTOD of the Department of Climate Change, MONRE dated 31 December 2022

Renewable energy sources such as solar, wind, biomass, and waste-to-power play a crucial role in reducing greenhouse gas emissions Each energy type has specific emission factors that influence their overall environmental impact Solar energy is known for its minimal emissions during operation, while wind energy also boasts low emission levels Biomass energy, although renewable, can produce varying emissions depending on the source and processing methods Waste-to-power technologies can convert landfill waste into energy, significantly reducing methane emissions Understanding these emission factors is essential for optimizing energy production and achieving sustainability goals.

10 Emission factors of fuels Decision No 2626/QD-

2022 on List of emission factors for GHG inventories

11 Energy conversion factor Document No 3505/BCT-

KHCN dated 19 April 2011 on List of major energy users

Draft Master Plan for Socio- Economic Development of Can Tho City for the period 2021-2030, vision to 2050

The latest draft of the Master Plan is currently undergoing the approval process, with minor changes anticipated; however, the key indicators are expected to remain consistent.

Human Development Report of the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) h

RESULTS & DISCUSSION

Can Tho emission in 2020 by 5 key GPC sectors

Can Tho city's emissions are categorized into five key sectors, with Stationary Energy being the largest contributor at 2,744,553 tCO2 eq, representing 63.6% of total emissions The Transport sector follows with 757,380 tCO2 eq The AFOLU and Waste sectors have nearly equal emissions, accounting for 6.6% and 6.4%, respectively Lastly, the IPPU sector contributes the least, with a share of 5.8%, equivalent to 250,609 tCO2 eq.

Figure 4-1 The total emission of Can Tho city in 2020 IPPC‘s 5 sectors (tCO 2 eq)

GHG emission level of Can Tho in comparison with other cities and national level35

Figure 4-2 compares per capita emissions and per capita GRDP across various cities in Vietnam, with dot size indicating city population While the analysis overlooks year differences due to data limitations, it suggests a correlation between per capita emissions, GRDP, and population Notably, Can Tho's per capita emissions are similar to those of Dong Ha, Dong Hoi, Tam Ky, and Da Nang, despite its higher population and GRDP This anomaly can be attributed to the COVID-19 lockdown in 2020, which reduced emissions in sectors like transport Additionally, Can Tho's advanced appliances, likely resulting from higher income and effective mitigation efforts, may further lower its emissions compared to other cities However, the lack of comprehensive data and varying emission inventory years limit the strength of this comparison.

Figure 4-2 Per capita emission, per capita GRDP, and population of cities in Viet Nam

Source: Statistical yearbooks of HCM (2013, 2016, 2018), Da Nang (2016), Can Tho (2020), Binh Duong

(2018), Quang Nam (2016, 2020), Nghe An (2018), Quang Ngai (2016) and Quang Binh (2018), JICA (2021)

The per capita emission of Viet Nam has steadily increased for the past decade, then experienced a slight fall in 2020 and 2021, assumably due to the impacts of the COVID-

During the 19 pandemic, per capita emissions in nearly all cities exceeded the national average, with the exception of Can Tho city, which exhibited emissions closely aligned with the country’s overall levels.

Figure 4-3 Per capita emission of cities vs national level (tCO 2 eq)

Source: Statistical yearbooks of HCM (2013, 2016, 2018), Da Nang (2016), Can Tho (2020), Binh Duong

(2018), Quang Nam (2016, 2020), Nghe An (2018), Quang Ngai (2016) and Quang Binh (2018), JICA (2021),

Emission scenarios

The NCCS projects that Vietnam's emissions will grow at a rate of 6.1% until 2030, followed by 3.0% from 2031 to 2040, and 1.9% from 2041 to 2050 under the Business As Usual (BAU) scenario This trend reflects the adoption of advanced technologies and increased public awareness of sustainability However, without mitigation efforts, emissions are expected to rise significantly, reaching 1.5 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent by 2050—almost three times the 2020 levels—due to economic development demands Emission projections by sector under the BAU scenario are detailed in Table 4-1.

Table 4-1 National emission in the BAU scenario (mtCO 2 eq)

Year Energy Agriculture LULUCF Waste IPPU Total

The economic structure of Can Tho closely resembles that of the nation, and the difference in greenhouse gas (GHG) emission intensity between the city and the country is minimal, recorded at 3.47 tCO2 eq/cap for Can Tho and 3.40 tCO2 eq/cap for the country in 2020 Consequently, the projected future GHG emissions for Can Tho will be based on the 2020 emission levels, applying the same increase rates observed nationally, under the assumption that the city's emissions will grow in tandem with the national trend, unless mitigation measures are implemented.

Table 4-2 Can Tho‘s emission in the BAU scenario (mtCO 2 eq)

Year Energy Transport AFOLU Waste IPPU Total

Year Energy Transport AFOLU Waste IPPU Total

Can Tho's emissions are projected to rise significantly from 2020 to 2050, reaching 7.79 mtCO2 eq by 2030 and 12.68 mtCO2 eq by 2050 without any mitigation measures, which represents increases of 1.8 and 2.9 times the levels recorded in 2020 However, the emission intensity per Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) is expected to decline, as the city's GRDP grows at a faster rate of 9% per year compared to the 6.1% annual increase in emissions.

Figure 4-4 Projected Can Tho‘s emissions for the period 2022-2030 (mtCO 2 eq)

This article focuses on the climate change mitigation strategies and commitments of Can Tho City from 2020 to 2030, as outlined by the author in collaboration with the Can Tho Climate Change Coordination Office (CCCO), excluding targets from previous periods.

4.3.2.1 Can Tho’s Action Plan for Climate Change Response (2020)

In its Draft Action Plan for Climate Change Response (2020), Can Tho aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 246,237 tCO2 eq by 2030, focusing on a significant reduction of 242,544 tCO2 eq from the stationary energy and transportation sectors, and 3,693 tCO2 eq from waste management To enhance energy efficiency, the city plans to implement a smart lighting system and improve public building energy use Additionally, Can Tho will develop an electric vehicle system for tourism and expand its bus network to address transportation emissions To tackle waste-related emissions, the city intends to enhance wastewater treatment and reduce solid waste in alignment with the national solid waste management strategy.

4.3.2.2 Plan No 66/KH-UBND on implementing the National Energy Efficiency Programme, dated 22 March 2021

On March 22, the Can Tho People's Committee announced Plan No 66/KH-UBND to initiate the next phase of the National Energy Efficiency Programme, following the successful execution of the previous energy efficiency initiative.

2021 Accordingly, the city sets the target to save 6% of total energy consumption by

2025 and 7% by 2030 This target can be translated into the absolute value of reduced emissions by equation (1)

With the projected energy consumption by energy carriers from the Low-carbon Society Scenario Report (CCCO, 2017), the potentially-reduced emissions are presented in Table 4-3 below

Table 4-3 Potentially reduced GHG emissions from total energy consumption reduction of Can Tho city in 2030

Energy type Projected energy consumption amount in 2030 (TOE)

Reduced energy consumption amount based on the effect of Plan No.66/KH-UBND (TOE)

Potentially reduced GHG emissions (tCO 2 eq) h

Energy type Projected energy consumption amount in 2030 (TOE)

Reduced energy consumption amount based on the effect of Plan No.66/KH-UBND (TOE)

Potentially reduced GHG emissions (tCO 2 eq)

Source: Can Tho Climate Change Coordination Office, 2017

Can Tho aims to reduce energy loss to below

The projected electricity output of Can Tho in 2030 is extracted from Decision No 3486/QD-UBND The absolute amount of reduced emissions from reduced energy loss are presented in Table 4-4

Table 4-4 Potentially reduced GHG emissions from reduced energy loss rate

Potentially reduced GHG emissions (tCO 2 eq)

This 7.5-MW WTP plant was operated in December 2018 According to statistics of the Environmental Protection Sub-department, DONRE of Can Tho, the WTP plant has a treatment capacity of 550,27 tonnes of domestic waste per day and generates around 56,727 MWh/year The potentially reduced amount of emission from this project comes from the difference between the emission factors of WTP and the national power grid, which is calculated based on equation (3)

Potentially reduced amount of emission = 56,727 * 0.7221 – 56,727 * 0.101 = 35,233 tCO 2 eq

As of the end of 2020, Can Tho Power Company reported that 1,547 households and 98 enterprises have installed solar photovoltaic (PV) systems, totaling a capacity of 84,778 kWp The solar energy generation capacity in Can Tho is estimated at 1,400 kWh/kWp, resulting in an equivalent of 118,689 MWh The deployment of solar energy in the region is expected to significantly reduce emissions, as it offers a lower emission factor compared to the national power grid.

Potentially reduced amount of emission = 118,689 * 0.7221 – 118,689 * 0.085 = 75,617 tCO 2 eq

4.3.2.5 Decision No 876/QG-TTg of the Prime Minister dated July 22, 2022 on approving the action program for transition to green energy and mitigation of carbon dioxide and methane emissions from transportation

To achieve net-zero emissions in the transport sector by 2050, the Prime Minister has approved Decision No 876/QG-TTG 2022, which outlines an action program focused on transitioning to green energy and reducing carbon dioxide and methane emissions The program aims to improve energy efficiency and promote the adoption of electricity and clean fuels in transportation by 2030, with a goal of fully electrifying or converting all vehicles, equipment, and infrastructure to clean fuels by 2050 Specific targets have been established for various transportation modes across five centrally-governed cities, including Can Tho.

Can Tho city, in line with other centrally-governed cities, aims to boost its public transport modal split by 20% by 2030, as determined by the calculations outlined in equation (5).

Table 4-5 Can Tho population projection

Table 4-6 Can Tho‘s average travel coefficient, vehicle load factor & average travel distance by type of vehicle (Tran et al., 2020)

Average travel coefficient (trip/ person/ day.night)

Vehicle load factor (person/vehicle)

Motorbike Car Bus Motorbike Car Bus

A recent study by Nguyen et al (2021) reveals that the modal split for transportation in the area is currently dominated by motorbikes at 85.9%, followed by cars at 7.5% and buses at a mere 0.1% To achieve a targeted 20% modal share for buses, it is projected that the proportions of motorbikes and cars will need to decrease to 69.5% and 4%, respectively.

Table 4-7 Energy consumption of vehicles

Vehicle Type of fuel Energy consumption

Table 4-8 Potentially reduced emission from an increased modal share of public transport (buses) in Can Tho

Emissions occurred with current modal share (tCO 2 eq)

Emissions occurred with projected modal share (tCO 2 eq)

Potentially reduced emission (tCO 2 eq)

4.3.2.6 Plan No 110/KH-UBND dated 21 May 2021 on renewable energy (RE) development in Can Tho city for the period of 2021-2025

In May 2021, the Can Tho People's Committee launched Plan No 11/KH-UBND to enhance renewable energy (RE) deployment, addressing rising energy demands while ensuring energy security, reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and protecting the environment The plan aims to elevate the share of RE in the total primary energy supply to 4% by 2025, targeting the installation of 100 MWp of solar energy, 7.5 MW of wind turbine power (WTP), and 20 MW of biomass energy.

Can Tho currently boasts a total solar capacity of 84,778 kWp, with an additional capacity of 15,222 kWp planned, translating to approximately 21,311 MWh To prevent duplication in calculations, the 7.5 MW Water Treatment Plant (WTP) capacity is excluded from this assessment Notably, the capacity factor for biomass energy in Vietnam is around 80%, according to The World Bank.

2018), therefore, 20 MW biomass is approximately 21,024 MWh per year As a result, the potentially reduced amount of GHG emissions from these targets is presented in Table 4-9 (Equation 6 & 7)

Table 4-9 Potentially reduced emissions from Plan No 110/KH-UBND, 21st May 2021

EF of the national power grid (tCO 2 eq/MWh)

EF of energy source (tCO 2 eq/MWh)

Potentially reduced emissions (tCO 2 eq) Additional solar power 21,311 0.7221 0.085 13,577

4.3.2.7 Smart and Energy Efficient City Project

Scenario comparison

Three emissions scenarios have been developed based on calculations, indicating that Can Tho's emissions will rise in both the Business-As-Usual (BAU) and Policy scenarios from 2020 to 2030 To align with the Science-Based Targets (SBT) and the 1.5°C goal, the city must reduce its emissions to 2.32 mtCO2eq over the next decade, necessitating a substantial 70.2% reduction compared to the BAU scenario by 2030 This target is significantly more ambitious than the national NDC, which sets a reduction goal of only 15.8% unconditionally and 43.5% conditionally.

The comparison of emission levels across three scenarios from 2020 to 2030 reveals that the Policy scenario is projected to meet the new unconditional NDC target, achieving a reduction of approximately 1.32 mtCO2e, which translates to a 16.9% decrease compared to the Business-As-Usual (BAU) scenario This outcome aligns with the understanding that sub-national mitigation policies are informed by national strategies However, it is important to note that many of these policies were introduced in 2021 and 2022 and have not yet been incorporated into the updated NDC This suggests that the city has established more ambitious targets and committed to more significant actions than the national average reflected in the previous NDC, indicating that Can Tho's potential for reduced emissions may be even greater once these policies are fully updated.

Despite the potential for revised policies to help Can Tho reduce emissions by 2.07 mtCO2 eq and meet its conditional NDC target, the city will still be significantly below the SBT-allocated carbon budget by 2030 Specifically, there remains an emission gap of 2.08 mtCO2 eq under the conditional NDC and 4.23 mtCO2 eq in the policy scenario This highlights the urgent need for Can Tho to intensify its efforts in rapidly reducing emissions.

Figure 4-7 Emission gaps between scenarios in 2030 (tCO 2 eq) h

GHG emission reduction potential of Can Tho

Can Tho boasts significant potential for solar energy development, with annual sunshine hours ranging from 2,100 to 2,500, translating to about 2,000 kWh per square meter (Le, 2016) The estimated solar power output could reach 1,100 MWp, fulfilling up to 70% of the city's electricity needs, and this figure could increase tenfold with the implementation of dual-use solar technologies (Brohm & Nguyen, 2018) According to Plan No 110/KH-UBND dated May 21, 2021, the city has outlined targets for renewable energy development for the period of 2021-2025.

Can Tho has a technical solar potential that indicates significant opportunities for expanding solar energy deployment, with an estimated capacity of 100 MWp (approximately 140,000 MWh), which is currently underutilized This potential aligns with the guidelines set forth in Decision No 500/QD-TTg, which approves the National Power Development Plan, highlighting the city's capacity for further solar energy development.

The No 8 (PDP8) plan for 2021-2030, with a vision extending to 2050, aims to boost solar energy capacity by 4,100 MW by 2030, ultimately reaching between 168,594 and 189,294 MW by 2050 This initiative reflects the national commitment to transforming the energy system and accelerating the adoption of solar and other renewable sources To align with this national strategy and maximize its abundant solar resources, the city must expedite the integration of solar energy, significantly reducing emissions Each megawatt of solar energy deployed can save up to 892 tons of CO2 equivalent, highlighting the environmental benefits of this transition.

The Environmental Protection Sub-department of Can Tho's DONRE reports that the local Waste Treatment Plant (WTP) has the capacity to process 550.27 tons of domestic waste daily, totaling 200,849 tons annually This capacity accounts for 59% of the city's total domestic solid waste, as outlined in the Draft Strategic Environmental Assessment by the Can Tho People's Committee.

2022), the domestic solid waste of the city will increase to nearly 748,250 tons/year by

By 2030, increasing the capacity of Can Tho's Waste Treatment Plant (WTP) to 15 MW is projected to significantly reduce carbon emissions by approximately 35,233 tCO2 eq, while also addressing the critical issue of waste management in the city.

Can Tho city, under Plan No 66/KH-UBND, aims to achieve a 6% reduction in total energy consumption by 2025 and 7% by 2030, as part of the National Energy Efficiency Programme These targets are lower than those set in the National Energy Efficiency Programme Phase 3 (VNEEP 3) To enhance emission reductions, it is crucial to establish higher energy efficiency goals and enforce stricter energy-saving measures If Can Tho increases its targets to 6% for 2020-2025 and 9% for 2026-2030, it could potentially avoid approximately 270,674 tons of CO2 equivalent emissions.

According to Decision No 888/QD-TTg issued by the Prime Minister on July 25, 2022, Vietnam aims to adopt 100% E5 gasoline by 2030 to mitigate emissions from the transport sector, although this initiative has yet to be integrated into Can Tho's policies E5 gasoline, an ethanol-gasoline blend containing up to 5% ethanol, is recognized for its environmental benefits as it produces fewer carbon emissions compared to traditional fossil fuels Research indicates that using E5 gasoline could lead to a reduction of up to 1.7% in greenhouse gas emissions compared to conventional petrol.

In 2019, Ninh Kieu District's petrol consumption resulted in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of 129,733 tCO2 eq, translating to a total of 990.8 TJ (Nguyen et al., 2022) Assuming Ninh Kieu's petrol usage reflects the city average, the total GHG emissions from petrol consumption across Can Tho's eight administrative units reached approximately 1,037,864 tCO2 eq that year.

According to the Draft Strategic Environmental Assessment of Can Tho (Can Tho People's Committee, 2022), the annual carbon dioxide equivalent emissions are 1,041,808 tCO2 eq, reflecting a growth rate of 0.38% If Can Tho's E5 gasoline consumption aligns with the national average of 32% (Tuoi Tre Online, 2021), converting entirely to E5 gasoline could potentially reduce emissions by approximately 11,998 tCO2 eq.

E10 gasoline is anticipated to be commercially available soon, with research indicating that its adoption could lead to an additional 2% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions compared to E5 gasoline.

4.5.2.2 Promoting the penetration of electric vehicles (EVs)

Can Tho city should consider transitioning from traditional vehicles to electric vehicles (EVs) as a viable alternative while public transport develops The Vietnamese government has implemented incentives for EV adoption, including a three-year exemption from registration fees and a 50% fee reduction for the subsequent two years, as outlined in Decree No 10/2022/ND-CP Additionally, a reduced excise tax rate of 1-3% for battery-powered EVs will be in effect from March 2022 to February 2027 These measures aim to boost EV adoption, which could significantly reduce emissions from the transport sector Research indicates that greenhouse gas emissions from EVs are 17-30% lower than those from petrol and diesel vehicles, with potential for even greater reductions as renewable energy use increases If Can Tho’s fossil fuel-based transport system, projected to emit 1.43 mtCO2 eq by 2030, shifts 20% of its conventional vehicles to EVs, it could reduce emissions by approximately 290,000 tCO2 eq.

The Draft Master Plan for Socio-Economic Development of Can Tho City (2021-2030, vision to 2050) highlights a slight increase in domestic solid waste, ranging from 920 to 950 tons per day, while industrial and hazardous medical waste is rising at an annual rate of 10% Like many regions, Can Tho lacks effective waste separation practices, with domestic solid waste collection rates at 85% in urban areas and 60% in rural areas Approximately 59% of the collected solid waste is incinerated for electricity generation, while the remainder is disposed of in 10 landfills throughout the city.

The waste sector in Can Tho contributes 6.4% of the city's greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, amounting to 276,771 tons of CO2 equivalent Notably, methane (CH4) emissions from landfills represent the primary GHG in this sector, possessing a global warming potential 25 times greater than that of carbon dioxide.

CO 2 on a 100-year timescale (IPCC, 2007) Therefore, addressing the waste sector from waste will significantly contribute to the abatement efforts

Can Tho city generates an average of 125,992 m³ of domestic wastewater daily, totaling approximately 45,987,080 m³ annually This figure is expected to increase to 92,029,275 m³ per year by 2030, according to the Draft Master Plan for Socio-Economic Development Currently, only 25% of this wastewater is treated at the Cai Sau wastewater treatment plant, which has a capacity of 30,000 m³ per day Effective wastewater treatment could potentially reduce greenhouse gas emissions from this sector by about one-third.

As a result, if the city can increase its wastewater treatment to 50% by 2030, it can reduce around half of wastewater-related emissions

The summary of further emission reduction potential is presented in Table 4 - 13

Table 4-13 Summary of further emission reduction potential of Can Tho city

Sector Action Potentially reduced amount of emissions Energy Solar energy development 892 tCO 2 eq / MWh h

Extend the WTP capacity 35,233 tCO 2 eq Enhanced energy efficiency in line with the national targets (6%-9%)

Transport Convert gasoline to 100% E5 11,998 tCO 2 eq

Convert 20% of traditional vehicles to electric vehicles

Waste Increase its wastewater treatment to

Emission reduction and net zero targets by 2050: strengths, weaknesses,

To gain a thorough understanding of the internal and external factors influencing Can Tho city's ability to achieve its emission reduction and net zero targets, a swift SWOT analysis was performed This analysis aims to offer tailored recommendations that align with the city's specific conditions and capabilities.

Besides reduction potentials, such as abundant solar resources, Can Tho has some advantages in reducing GHG emissions and moving towards the net zero target

Can Tho is recognized as a leader in climate change response in Vietnam, actively implementing various strategies and projects, including the national initiative for developing cities to combat climate change (Decision No 438/QD-TTg for 2021-2030) In 2019, the city joined the Global Covenant of Mayors for Climate & Energy, committing to ambitious targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and enhancing sustainable energy access To support these goals, Can Tho has enacted policies like Plan No 200/KH-UBND for Green Growth (2021-2030, vision to 2050), focusing on restructuring the economy to promote sustainability and carbon neutrality while addressing global temperature rise.

01 April 2022 approving the Climate Change Response Action Plan for the period 2021-

By 2030, Can Tho aims to establish a practical emissions reduction target informed by a detailed emissions inventory, focusing on decreasing emissions from the transport and agricultural sectors while promoting the adoption of renewable energy and fuels The city has initiated several plans and projects, as outlined in Table 4-10, demonstrating a strong political commitment to reducing its carbon footprint and fostering an environment conducive to effective mitigation efforts.

4.6.1.2 Organizational Structure for climate change response

Can Tho is one of the few regions in Vietnam with a dedicated Climate Change Coordination Office (CCCO), established in 2011 with support from the Can Tho People’s Committee and the Asian Cities Climate Change Resilience Network Now operating under the Can Tho Department of Natural Resources and Environment (DONRE), the CCCO has a dedicated staff member focused on developing and coordinating climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies This exclusive office enhances the city's ability to implement effective climate change actions and policies, unlike other provinces with only part-time positions Additionally, the CCCO is responsible for mobilizing funding for all related activities, ensuring comprehensive engagement with external agencies and local stakeholders in climate change initiatives.

4.6.2.1 Asynchronous and insufficient policy framework h

Can Tho's current policies and targets exhibit significant inconsistencies, complicating their implementation For instance, there are conflicting modal share targets for public transport: Decision No 3522/QĐ-UBND from November 2015 aims for a modal share of 34%-45%, while Decision No 876/QG-TTg from July 2022 mandates a reduction to 20% Additionally, Plan No 200/KH-UBND outlines an Action Plan for Green Growth from 2021 to 2030, further highlighting the need for coherent and aligned policies to effectively support the city's transportation and environmental goals.

By 2030, Can Tho aims to achieve a 5% modal share for public transport and a significant increase in renewable energy, targeting 12,000 MW of solar power as part of its Low Carbon Transformation project for 2020-2030, with a vision extending to 2050 Additionally, Plan No 110/KH-UBND, issued on May 21, 2021, outlines strategies for renewable energy development in the city during the 2021-2030 period.

By 2025, the target is set at 100 MWp, translating to 140,000 MWh/year, but this goal is hindered by an inconsistent policy framework Contributing factors include outdated policies and insufficient collaboration and information sharing among government agencies, as seen in the division of responsibilities where the Department of Transport manages transport sector development, while the Department of Investment and Planning oversees the Action Plan for Green Growth.

Can Tho's current climate change mitigation policies are outdated, as they rely on the previous Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) This indicates a need for a more updated approach in the Climate Change Action Plan to effectively address contemporary environmental challenges.

The city's Action Plan for Green Growth, established in 2020, has yet to be revised to align with the more ambitious mitigation targets set by the NDC 2022 version This plan is fundamentally rooted in Vietnam's Green Growth Strategy, aiming to achieve a 15% to 30% reduction in emission intensity per GRDP compared to 2014 levels.

The city has set emissions reduction goals for 2030 and 2050, but the lack of a 2014 inventory means there is no baseline data to accurately assess progress or localize these targets This absence of foundational data complicates tracking implementation efforts Additionally, the focus on intensity targets rather than absolute emissions reductions poses challenges, as it does not mandate a decrease in overall emissions, leaving the city without a binding commitment to lower its carbon footprint (Donovan, 2019).

Can Tho's Climate Change Action Plan reveals that 16 of the 17 planned missions and activities under the mitigation component rely heavily on international financial support for their execution This dependency may hinder the city's ability to undertake significant mitigation efforts effectively.

Net zero refers to the balance between anthropogenic emissions released into the atmosphere and those absorbed To achieve this goal, enhancing carbon sequestration is crucial According to the National Climate Change Strategy, Vietnam's forestry sector must absorb at least 185 mtCO2 eq by 2050 to meet net zero emissions targets However, Can Tho lacks natural forests and can only depend on a limited area of urban trees for carbon sequestration This situation presents significant challenges for the city in balancing its greenhouse gas emissions compared to other regions with extensive forest areas.

As a centrally-managed Class-I municipality, Can Tho benefits from prioritized financial support from the central government for infrastructure and climate change initiatives Its active engagement in international pledges and programs enhances collaboration opportunities and access to funding These factors are anticipated to enable the city to mobilize resources for low-carbon technologies and sustainable energy solutions Furthermore, rising local revenues position Can Tho favorably compared to lower-income areas, allowing for increased investment in climate action initiatives.

Can Tho possesses significant solar energy potential, with an estimated output of 1,100 MWp, capable of satisfying 70% of the city's electricity needs Additionally, the city has abundant biogas resources from animal manure and biomass from agricultural waste, supporting a shift towards a low-carbon energy system and reducing emissions With the upcoming Vietnamese carbon market, as outlined in Decree 06/2022/ND-CP, the availability of carbon credits from renewable energy sources presents a valuable opportunity for Can Tho to offset emissions and work towards achieving its net-zero target.

4.6.4.1 The impacts of climate change

Can Tho faces significant risks from climate change, including rising sea levels and extreme weather, threatening its sustainability and socio-economic development These challenges may intensify existing problems such as poverty, migration, and infrastructure decay, undermining the city's resilience Consequently, effective climate change response strategies and necessary investments could be adversely impacted.

CONCLUSIONS

Conclusion

Can Tho, recognized as a leading city in Vietnam for sustainable development, actively engages in international alliances and programs focused on reducing carbon footprints However, assessments of the city's current mitigation efforts indicate that it is not on track to achieve net zero emissions.

By 2030, the city's emissions are projected to hit 7.79 mtCO2eq without any mitigation efforts, but current measures could reduce this to 6.47 mtCO2eq, falling short of the SBT-allocated carbon budget To align with the 1.5°C goal, nearly two-thirds of emissions must be cut compared to business as usual If all ongoing and future mitigation policies are successfully implemented, the city can meet Vietnam's unconditional NDC target However, to achieve net zero by 2050, a significant reduction gap of 4.15 mtCO2eq remains, necessitating more ambitious actions.

Can Tho has significant opportunities to reduce emissions by targeting its three main sectors: energy, transport, and waste By expanding the use of renewable energy, improving energy efficiency, transitioning to cleaner fuels and electric vehicles, and increasing waste treatment rates, Can Tho can enhance its mitigation efforts and progress towards achieving net zero emissions.

Can Tho benefits from strong political will and a dedicated office for climate change, yet it struggles with an incomplete policy framework and limited funding for mitigation efforts The absence of natural forests complicates the city's ability to offset carbon emissions compared to other regions with extensive forestry Additionally, reliance on fossil fuels poses risks to its climate initiatives However, with improved financial accessibility and a wealth of renewable resources, Can Tho has the potential to implement effective climate actions, align with Vietnam's NDC targets, and strive for net zero emissions by 2050.

Limitations & suggestions for further research

The current study has notable limitations that should be considered when interpreting the results, primarily due to the reliance on secondary data To achieve a more accurate emission inventory and identify abatement potentials, on-site surveys and expert interviews with local authorities are recommended While the author has sought to minimize errors by sourcing data from reliable outlets and consulting the local CCCO online for validation, the persistent lack of data remains a significant obstacle to a comprehensive analysis Consequently, numerous assumptions have been made, potentially impacting the accuracy and generalizability of the findings Additionally, anticipated revisions to draft plans and policies may not be substantial but could still influence the analysis and conclusions drawn Importantly, the IPPU and AFOLU sectors have been excluded from the emission abatement opportunity analysis due to insufficient data, despite their modest contributions to the city's total emissions; further research is essential to explore reduction strategies in these areas to achieve net-zero targets.

This research represents a pioneering effort to quantify reduced emissions from existing policies in a Vietnamese city, enabling progress tracking against international and national mitigation goals As greenhouse gas (GHG) emission inventory and quantification are relatively new to Vietnam, there remains significant potential for future studies Conducting feasibility studies, including technical and cost-benefit analyses, is essential for identifying effective actions and supporting informed decision-making, although these were beyond the scope of this research due to capacity limitations Additionally, more comprehensive GHG emission inventories are needed to gain a better understanding of subnational emissions and to evaluate local abatement targets effectively.

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EMISSION DATA OF CAN THO IN 2020 BY 10 ACTIVITY

CATEGORIES OF THE BILAN CARBONE METHOD

No Activity category Emissions (tCO 2 eq)

2.2 Electricity produced outside the region 578,754

2.3 Kyoto gases other than CO 2 15,316

2.4 Emissions of gases excl Kyoto 3,998

5.4 Direct emission from stock rearing 66,026

6.1 Direct accounting of fuels consumed 20,196

6.3 Road transit of goods, combustion only 609