Emission inventory analysis towards the net zero target a case study in can tho city, viet nam

VIETNAM NATIONAL UNIVERSITY, HANOI VIETNAM JAPAN UNIVERSITY LE THI THU THAO EMISSION INVENTORY ANALYSIS TOWARDS THE NET ZERO TARGET: A CASE STUDY IN CAN THO CITY, VIET NAM MASTER’S THESIS VIETNAM NATIONAL UNIVERSITY, HANOI VIETNAM JAPAN UNIVERSITY LE THI THU THAO EMISSION INVENTORY ANALYSIS TOWARDS THE NET ZERO TARGET: A CASE STUDY IN CAN THO CITY, VIET NAM MAJOR: CLIMATE CHANGE AND DEVELOPMENT CODE: 8900201.02QTD RESEARCH SUPERVISORS: PROF DR TAMURA MAKOTO ASSOC PROF DR TRAN ANH TUAN Hanoi, 2023 PLEDGE I pledge my honor that this master‘s thesis has been written by myself, in accordance with all relevant thesis guidelines and regulations of Viet Nam Japan University, Viet Nam National University I have not employed any other sources than those mentioned in the text and its references I further pledge that this thesis has not been published Author of the thesis Le Thi Thu Thao ACKNOWLEDGEMENT This research would be impossible without the support of many people First and foremost, I would like to express my sincere gratitude and appreciation to my supervisor Prof Dr Makoto Tamura for his invaluable guidance, support, and encouragement throughout my academic journey His expertise, deep insights, and constructive feedback have greatly contributed to the success of my research My great gratitude also goes to my sub-supervisor, Assoc Prof Dr Tran Anh Tuan, University of Sciences, Hue University for his practical guidance and dedicated support with his great expertise and enthusiasm Furthermore, I would like to thank my colleagues at the Climate Change and Energy Practice of WWF-Viet Nam for their valuable support, guidance, and cooperation, who created the best conditions for me to complete my professional and academic tasks over the past nearly years Besides, I want to express my special thanks to the One Planet City Challenge project of WWF-Viet Nam for granting me access to and permission to use all available city-level inventory data in this research as well as the Can Tho Climate Change Coordination Office and the Can Tho Environmental Protection Sub-Department for providing valuable data, information and documents I am also grateful to my classmates in MCCD6 for their collaboration, friendship, and sharing of ideas and experiences Their diverse perspectives and contributions have widened my horizons and enriched my learning experience It is their companionship that motivates me to finish this journey Finally, I would like to acknowledge the immense support and love from my family and friends who have always been there for me and cheered me up through ups and downs Thank you all for your kindness and generosity! TABLE OF CONTENT PLEDGE i ACKNOWLEDGEMENT i TABLE OF CONTENT i LIST OF TABLES i LIST OF FIGURES ii LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS iii CHAPTER : INTRODUCTION 1.1 Research Overview 1.1.1 General background 1.1.2 Research questions, objectives and tasks 1.1.3 Objects and scope of the research 1.1.4 The structure of this Thesis 1.1.5 The logical framework of the thesis 1.1.6 Matrix of learning outcomes for the Master‘s Thesis 1.2 Overview of Can Tho 10 CHAPTER : LITERATURE REVIEW 14 2.1 GHG emission inventory and analysis in the context of climate change 14 2.2 City-scale GHG emission inventory and analysis at the global level 15 2.3 GHG reduction and science-based targets 17 2.4 GHG emission inventory & abatement potential analysis in Viet Nam 19 2.5 Emission inventory of Can Tho 21 CHAPTER : METHODOLOGY 24 3.1 Emission analysis 24 3.2 Emission scenarios establishment 25 3.2.1 The business as usual scenario 25 3.2.2 The Policy scenario 26 3.2.3 The science-based target scenario 30 3.3 Emission abatement potential analysis 31 3.4 Emission factor 31 3.5 Global Warming Potential 32 3.6 Data sources and certainty level 32 CHAPTER : RESULTS & DISCUSSION 35 4.1 Can Tho emission in 2020 by key GPC sectors 35 4.2 GHG emission level of Can Tho in comparison with other cities and national level35 4.3 Emission scenarios 37 4.3.1 4.3.2 4.3.3 4.4 4.5 4.5.1 4.5.2 4.5.3 4.6 Business as usual scenario 37 Policy scenario 39 Science-based target 46 Scenario comparison 47 GHG emission reduction potential of Can Tho 50 Energy sector 50 Transport sector 51 Waste sector 52 Emission reduction and net zero targets by 2050: strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats (SWOT) of Can Tho city 54 4.6.1 Strengths 54 4.6.2 Weaknesses 55 4.6.3 Opportunities 57 4.6.4 Threats 58 4.7 Recommendations 59 4.7.1 Energy sector 59 4.7.2 Transport sector 60 4.7.3 Waste sector 60 4.7.4 IPPU & AFOLU sectors 61 CHAPTER : CONCLUSIONS 63 5.1 Conclusion 63 5.2 Limitations & suggestions for further research 64 REFERENCES 66 ANNEX 1: EMISSION DATA OF CAN THO IN 2020 BY 10 ACTIVITY CATEGORIES OF THE BILAN CARBONE METHOD 74 LIST OF TABLES Table 1-1 Research objectives and tasks Table 1-2 Matrix of learning outcomes of the Master‘s Thesis Table 1-3 Forecasted key socio-economic indicators of Can Tho, 2020-2030 12 Table 2-1 Definition of the five emission source sectors of the GPC 16 Table 2-2 Comparisons among different Science-based Target setting methodologies 18 Table 3-1 Emission factors 31 Table 3-2 Global Warming Potential 32 Table 3-3 Data sources and certainty level 32 Table 4-1 National emission in the BAU scenario (mtCO2eq) 38 Table 4-2 Can Tho‘s emission in the BAU scenario (mtCO2eq) 38 Table 4-3 Potentially reduced GHG emissions from total energy consumption reduction of Can Tho city in 2030 40 Table 4-4 Potentially reduced GHG emissions from reduced energy loss rate 41 Table 4-5 Can Tho population projection 43 Table 4-6 Can Tho‘s average travel coefficient, vehicle load factor & average travel distance by type of vehicle (Tran et al., 2020) 43 Table 4-7 Energy consumption of vehicles 43 Table 4-8 Potentially reduced emission from an increased modal share of public transport (buses) in Can Tho 44 Table 4-9 Potentially reduced emissions from Plan No 110/KH-UBND dated 21 May 2021 44 Table 4-10 Total potentially reduced amount of GHG emissions from all ongoing and planned mitigation efforts of Can Tho city by 2030 45 Table 4-11 The emission level of Can Tho in 2018 47 Table 4-12 Science-based absolute emissions level of Can Tho in 2030 to be aligned with the 1.5oC goal by OPCC methodology 47 Table 4-13 Summary of further emission reduction potential of Can Tho city 53 i LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1-1 Maps of the study area (Can Tho city, Viet Nam) Figure 1-2 The logical framework of the thesis Figure 1-3 The economic structure of Can Tho in 2020 11 Figure 1-4 The economic structure of Viet Nam in 2020 11 Figure 1-5 The projected economic structure of Can Tho in 2030 11 Figure 1-6 The projected economic structure of Viet Nam in 2030 11 Figure 2-1 Sources and boundaries of urban GHG emissions 16 Figure 2-2 Definition of science-based climate targets 18 Figure 2-3 Emission of Ninh Kieu district, Can Tho city by sources (tCO2eq) 21 Figure 2-4 Emission of Can Tho city in 2020 by activity categories (tCO2eq) 22 Figure 3-1 The framework and equations for quantifying emission in the transport sector (Adapted from Tran et al., 2020) 28 Figure 4-1 The total emission of Can Tho city in 2020 IPPC‘s sectors (tCO2eq) 35 Figure 4-2 Per capita emission, per capita GRDP, and population of cities in Viet Nam36 Figure 4-3 Per capita emission of cities vs national level (tCO2eq) 37 Figure 4-4 Projected Can Tho‘s emissions for the period 2022-2050 (mtCO2eq) 39 Figure 4-5 Emission level comparison of three scenarios (2020-2030) (mtCO2eq) 48 Figure 4-6 Scenario comparisons: developed scenarios vs NDC (mtCO2eq) 49 Figure 4-7 Emission gaps between scenarios in 2030 (tCO2eq) 49 ii LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AFOLU ASIF BAU CCCO CCGT CIRIS DARD DONRE DOT EV EF GHG GNI GPC HDI IPCC IPPU kWh kWp NCCS NDC SBT SEECP SWOT tCO2eq UNDP VNEEP3 WTP WWF-Viet Nam Agriculture, forestry and other land use Activity-Structure-Intensity-fuel type model Business as usual Can Tho Climate Change Coordination Office Combined-Cycle Gas Turbine City Inventory Reporting Information System Department of Agriculture and Rural Development Department of Natural Resources and Environment Department of Transport Electric vehicle Emission factor Greenhouse gas Gross National Income The Global Protocol for Community-Scale Greenhouse Gas Emission Inventories Human Development Index United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Industrial processes and product use Kilowatt-hour Kilowatt peak National Climate Change Strategy Nationally Determined Contributions Science-based Targets Smart and Energy Efficient City Project Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats Tons of CO2 equivalent The United Nations Development Programme National Energy Efficiency Programme Phase Waste to Power World Wide Fund for Nature in Viet Nam iii CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION 1.1 Research Overview 1.1.1 General background Human-induced greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are considered the key driver leading to climate change, the biggest challenge of our time Rising sea levels, melting glaciers, more frequent and increased intensity of natural disasters and the most visible phenomenon – global warming are all evidence of a changing climate Being aware of the negative effects of this issue, 195 countries signed the Paris Agreement in 2015 to ―hold the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above preindustrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels‖ For the world to achieve this commitment, emissions must peak as soon as possible According to the most recent report of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), emissions must peak by 2025 and be reduced by 43% by the end of this decade to realize the 1.5oC goal 88 countries, accounting for nearly 79% of global GHG emissions, committed to reaching the net zero emission target (UNDP, 2022) However, emissions still surged in 2022, with a record high of 0.9% rise in energy-related CO2 emissions (IEA, 2022) The continued increase means the world is still far from being on track to meet the goal According to the Emission Gap Report (United Nations Environment Programme, 2022), current Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC), presumably implemented, will lead to a rise between 2.6°C (unconditionally) and 2.4°C (conditionally) by the end of the century Not to mention that the credibility gap remains massive, as actual actions to reduce GHG emissions by national governments and relevant stakeholders even fall far behind these not-enoughambitious commitments Viet Nam is among the most susceptible countries to climate change‘s impacts, ranking thirteenth according to the Global Climate Risk Index 2021 (Eckstein et al., 2021), but at the same time, a rising emitter The country has experienced rapid development in recent Exploring opportunities and feasibility of expanding the current waste-to-power plant worth a thorough consideration, reckoning with the effective operation of the plant in generating electricity and solving the solid waste problems It is critical for the city to encourage waste reduction at the source, such as promoting the use of reusable products, repairing and refurbishing items, and implementing composting programs to ease the burden on the waste treatment sector as well as reduce waste generation, hence, reducing emissions Besides, improving landfill management practices, such as covering and compacting waste can also significantly reduce emissions of methane, a potent greenhouse gas that is generated when organic waste decomposes in landfills 4.7.4 IPPU & AFOLU sectors IPPU and AFOLU account for small parts of the current emission of Can Tho city Due to a lack of information and data, these sectors are not thoroughly analyzed in this research to provide practical recommendations for GHG emission reduction However, some effective solutions may include:  The city can consider scaling up low-carbon rice cultivation models, following the Sustainable Rice Platform (SRP) standard for rice production and applying proactive irrigation and intermittent irrigation This not only increases productivity, reduces capital costs and use of fertilizers, but also contributes to 25% of GHG emissions in rice cultivation (Vietnam Clean Energy Association, 2023)  It is advisable that the city collect and make use of methane (CH4) gas from the poultry farms in the suburb as well as livestock manure, which can be a great source of renewable energy Livestock manure can be used to produce biogas through anaerobic digestion The by-products of anaerobic digestion, such as fertilizer, can also be used in agriculture Methane emissions from livestock can be used as a fuel source to generate heat or electricity, which can reduce the reliance on fossil fuels and associated greenhouse gas emissions 61  Raising awareness of the industrial actors on their role, responsibilities and obligations in reducing GHG emissions will be of great importance to drive nessary changes in their normal practices and behavours The city should encourage industrial parks to conduce their own GHG emission inventory to have a better understand of their emission sources and identify feasible solutions Based on this data, the city can consider to develop and adopt a set of low-carbon industrial park indicators to put pressure on its industrial sector to decarbonize their processes and products 62 CHAPTER 5: CONCLUSIONS 5.1 Conclusion Although Can Tho is considered one of the leading cities in Viet Nam for sustainable development with active participation in international alliances and programs aiming at reducing carbon footprint, assessment and emission quantifications of current mitigation efforts of the city show that Can Tho is falling short of achieving net zero emissions It is estimated that the city‘s emission will reach 7.79 mtCO2eq by 2030 if no mitigation measures are taken With current abatement efforts, approximately 1.32 mtCO2eq can be avoided, reducing the city‘s 2030 emissions to 6.47 mtCO2eq These numbers are falling far behind the SBT-allocated carbon budget Via three developed scenarios, it is estimated that the city needs to reduce nearly two-thirds of its emission, compared with the business as usual to be in alignment with the 1.5oC goal When considering all of the ongoing and future mitigation policies and projects with the assumption that all of them will be delivered successfully, the city can satisfy the unconditional NDC target of Viet Nam However, a reduction gap of 4.15 mtCO2eq still needs tackling by 2030 if the city aims to reach net zero by 2050, implying more ambitious and drastic actions Nevertheless, Can Tho also presents some good opportunities to further reduce emissions, focusing on the dominant emitters of the city, which are the energy, transport and waste sectors With the further deployment of renewable energy, enhanced energy efficiency, conversion to cleaner fuels and electric vehicles, and increasing the waste treatment rate, Can Tho can increase its mitigation effort and move closer to the net zero target Although Can Tho has the advantage of the good political will from the local authority and a dedicated office to tackle climate change and reduce its carbon footprint, the city also faces some challenges from the asynchronous and incomplete policy framework and insufficient funding for mitigation actions Besides, the fact that the city has no natural forest also makes it more challenging for Can Tho to offset its emitted carbon in 63 comparison with other cities/provinces with large forestry areas The city should also be cautious about the impacts of climate change as well as its dependence on fossil fuels which can greatly undermine its mitigation efforts Nevertheless, better financial accessibility and abundant renewable resources offer the city good opportunities to implement drastic and comprehensive climate actions to reduce emissions, significantly contribute to Viet Nam‘s NDC targets and move towards the net zero target by 2050 5.2 Limitations & suggestions for further research The present study has some limitations that should be taken into account when interpreting the results The most notable limitation is the fact that the research only uses secondary data For more precise emission inventory and abatement potentials, on-site surveys and in-depth interviews with experts and the local authority should be conducted However, the author has tried to limit errors by obtaining data from the most reliable sources, if available, and discussing and consulting with the local CCCO via online platforms to validate data as well as the feasibility of recommendations to some extent Nevertheless, the lack of data remains one of the biggest challenges, preventing the author from conducting a more thorough analysis As a result, a lot of assumptions have been made, which may have affected the accuracy and generalizability of key findings In addition, the revisions of the draft plans/policies referred to in the research in the upcoming time are believed to not be significant but still have some impacts on the analysis and conclusions Last but not least, IPPU and AFOLU sectors are excluded in emission abatement opportunity analysis within the scope of this thesis due to a lack of data and information Although these sectors account for modest shares of the city‘s total emissions, further research is needed to look into emission reduction solutions for them to realize the net zero target This research is still one of the first efforts to consolidate and quantify 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