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MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING - MINISTRY OF CONSTRUCTION UNIVERSITY OF ARCHITECTURE HO CHI MINH CITY _ NGUYEN QUOC VINH SPATIAL STRUCTURE OF URBAN SYSTEM ADAPTIVE TO DROUGHT AND FLOOD IN NINH THUAN PROVINCE Fiel of study : REGIONAL AND URBAN PLANNING Code : 9.58.01.05 SUMMARY OF DOCTORAL THESIS IN URBAN AND REGIONAL PLANNING HO CHI MINH CITY - 2023 The work was completed at: UNIVERSITY OF ARCHITECTURE HO CHI MINH CITY Academic instructors: Late Prof Dr Arch NGUYEN TRONG HOA Associate Prof Dr Arch LE ANH DUC Reviewers 1: Prof Dr Arch Nguyen Quoc Thong Reviewers 2: Prof Dr Arch Doan Minh Khoi Reviewers 3: Associate Prof Dr Arch Luong Tu Quyen The thesis will be defended infront of the university-level judging committee at UNIVERSITY OF ARCHITECTURE HO CHI MINH CITY At …… o’clock, … / ……/ … / …… The dissertation can be found at the libraries: UNIVERSITY OF ARCHITECTURE HO CHI MINH CITY GENERAL SCIENCE LIBRARY OF HO CHI MINH CITY i TABLE OF CONTENT INTRODUCTION 1 The urgency of the topic Research problems and hypothesis Research objects and scope Purpose and objectives of the research Scientific and practical implications of the research New contributions of the research Thesis structure DISSERTATION CONTENT CHAPTER OVERVIEW OF THE RESEARCH ISSUES 1.1 RELATED CONCEPTS 1.1.1 Spatial structure of urban system 1.1.2 D&F phenomenon and capactity of D&FES 1.1.3 Adaptability of spatial structure of urban system to D&F 1.1.4 Summary of the related conceptual system 1.2 OVERVIEW OF NINH THUAN AND URBAN SYSTEM 1.2.1 Overview of Ninh Thuan province 1.2.2 Urban system in Ninh Thuan province 1.3 CURRENT SPATIAL STRUCTURE OF THE URBAN SYSTEM OF NINH THUAN PROVINCE AND PHAN RANGTHAP CHAM CITY IN THE RELATIONSHIP WITH DROUGHT AND FLOOD ii 1.3.1 Drought and flood situation in Ninh Thuan province 1.3.2 The formation and transformation of the spatial structure of urban system of Ninh Thuan province in relation to D&F 1.3.3 The formation and transformation of Phan Rang-Thap Cham urban spatial structure in the relationship with D&F 1.3.4 Adaptive cycles to D&F of SSUS at the regional level and of USS at Phan Rang-Thap Cham City 1.3.5 Assessing the current status of the spatial structure of the urban system in Ninh Thuan Province and Phan Rang-Thap Cham City in the relationship with D&F 1.4 CONCLUSIONS OF THE RESEARCH CONTENTS CHAPTER RESEARCH BASIS AND METHODS 2.1 RESEARCH PROGRESS 2.1.1 Research methodology and methods 2.1.2 Research process 2.2 SCIENTIFIC BASIS 11 2.2.1 Legal basis 11 2.2.2 Theoretical basis 12 2.2.3 Practical basis 13 2.3 BASIS AND METHODS FOR ASSESSING ADAPTABILITY TO D&F OF URBAN SYSTEM SPATIAL STRUCTURE 13 2.3.1 Basis and methods of building D&FES map 13 2.3.2 Basis and methods to evaluate SSUS transformation process 13 2.3.3 Basis and methods to determine adaptability levels 14 CHAPTER SPATIAL STRUCTURE OF URBAN SYSTEM ADAPTIVE TO DROUGHT AND FLOOD IN NINH THUAN PROVINCE 14 iii 3.1 RESEARCH POINT OF VIEW 14 3.2 ASSESSMENT FRAMEWORK OF ADAPTABILITY TO D&F OF SPATIAL STRUCTURE OF URBAN SYSTEM IN NINH THUAN 15 3.2.1 D&FES capacity map 15 3.2.2 Assessment Framework of SSUS adaptability to D&F 15 3.3 PROPOSAL FOR SPATIAL STRUCTURE OF URBAN SYSTEM ADAPTIVE TO DROUGHT AND FLOOD FROM 2021-2030, VISION 2050 IN NINH THUAN PROVINCE ACCORDING TO ASSUMPTIONS OF IMPACT FACTORS 16 3.3.1 To forecast SSUS transforming trend and its risks to D&F 16 3.3.2 To develop principles of SSUS adaptation to D&F 16 3.3.3 To propose SSUS in river basins adaptive to D&F from 20212030, vision to 2050 17 3.4 PROPOSAL OF PHAN RANG-THAP CHAM URBAN SPATIAL STRUCTURE ADAPTIVE TO DROUGHT AND FLOOD IN THE RELATIONSHIP WITH THE URBAN SYSTEM OF NINH THUAN PROVINCE 18 3.4.1 To forecast USS transforming trend and its risks to D&F 18 3.4.2 To develop principles of SSUS adaptation to D&F 18 3.4.3 To propose Phan Rang-Thap Cham USS adaptive to D&F 19 3.5 DISCUSS RESEARCH RESULTS 20 3.5.1 Application of the Assessment Framework 20 3.5.2 Application of Adaptive SSUS to D&F 20 CONCLUSION – RECOMMENDATIONS 21 CONCLUSION 21 ▪ SSUS adaptive to D&F 21 iv ▪ D&FES capacity map 21 ▪ Result 01: Assessment Framework for SSUS and USS adaptability to D&F in Ninh Thuan province 21 ▪ Result 02: SSUS in river basins adaptive to D&F from 20212030, vision to 2050 21 ▪ Result 03: USS of Phan Rang-Thap Cham adaptive to D&F in relation to urban system 22 RECOMMENDATIONS 24 ▪ With municipalities at all levels 24 ▪ For planning professionals 24 ▪ For project investors and developers 24 ▪ With further research directions 24 INTRODUCTION The urgency of the topic Adaptation has been studied extensively in urban planning (UP) and development, but the application has only stopped at descriptive assessment There needs to be quantitative research, especially on the adaptability of urban spatial structures (USS) to a specific natural disaster phenomenon Therefore, research on the adaptability of urban areas to natural disasters is essential Cities in Vietnam are now applying many technologies to protect and respond to natural disasters, even in small and slow-growing cities The central provinces suffer from drought and flood (D&F) Especially in river basins, droughts are even more severe in the dry season, and floods are more severe in the rainy season, including Ninh Thuan Ninh Thuan is the hottest and driest province in Vietnam Due to the terrain surrounded by 3/4 high mountains, the river bed is narrow with a steep slope, enormously affected by flooding in the rainy season The urban and residential system of the province is mainly based on the basins of the Dinh, Lu, and Quao rivers and the Nai Lagoon The current urban development shows the interaction relationship between built-up land and water surface and vegetation The level of their interaction affects D&F levels Specifically, when the built-up is allocated incompatible, D&F levels increase In contrast, droughts and floods decrease In the future, when urban areas develop on a larger scale, the expansion of urban space will significantly affect natural ecosystems, especially areas with disaster regulation capacity to support social ecosystems Therefore, the research direction of the dissertation is established: 'Spatial structure of urban system adaptive to drought and flood in Ninh Thuan province' The research aims to determine the nature of the interaction between built-up, tree and water surfaces to solve their conflicts and move towards adaptive USS The study focuses on 02 spatial levels: (1) Regional-spatial structure of the urban system (SSUS): solving problems of location and amount for municipalities in the basin of the rivers through functional distribution, network organization and regional landscape; (2) Urban-level- USS: focussing on the structure of components of urban spaces (US) concerning the urban system, focusing on the amount and criteria Phan Rang-Thap Cham City was selected for research at the urban level in correlation with the regional level Research problems and hypothesis The urban built-up spaces of Ninh Thuan province have not been structured adaptive to D&F It is hypothesized that the frequency and intensity of D&F in Ninh Thuan province will decrease if the USS of Ninh Thuan is structured to adapt to D&F Research objects and scope - Research object: the spatial structure of urban system (SSUS) - Impact object: drought and flood (D&F) - Spatial scope: river basins of Ninh Thuan province and Phan RangThap Cham City - Temporal scope: from 1250 to 2050 Purpose and objectives of the research Purpose of the research: To propose "Spatial structure of urban system adaptative to drought and flood in Ninh Thuan province", aiming at sustainable development and imbued with local identity Objectives of the research: 1/ To develop an assessment framework of SSUS adaptability to D&F in Ninh Thuan province; 2/ To propose an SSUS adaptive to D&F from 2021 to 2030, vision to 2050 according to assumptions about impact factors; 3/ To propose a USS of Phan RangThap Cham adaptive to D&F concerning the SSUS of the province Scientific and practical implications of the research - To integrate ecological science into the field of UP; - To complete the urban adaptation to D&F; - To organize spatial components in relation to D&F through D&F ecosystem services (D&FES); - To organize and arrange spatial components adaptive to D&F to take advantage of D&FES and reduce risks; - To provide a reliable basis for research on SSUS adaptive to D&F; information for the development of the D&FES map, the development of the Assessment Framework of SSUS Adaptability to D&F; to develop Planning principles of SSUS adaptive to D&F New contributions of the research - Assessment Framework of SSUS adaptability to D&F; - SSUS adaptive to D&F at the regional level and USS at the urban level; - Assist UP professionals in developing a D&FES map, to analyze and evaluate SSUS transformation concerning D&F; - Help UP professionals determine the location and size of buildable land compatible with D&FES sites; - Help UP professionals forecast SSUS changes and measure adaptability to D&F, then structure SSUS adaptive to D&F across levels; - Assist urban authorities in formulating policies, applying and developing mechanisms for formulation, appraisal and implementation of adaptative planning Thesis structure The thesis consists of 03 chapters: (1) Overview of research issues (47 pages), (2) Scientific basis and research methods (36 pages), (3) USS adaptative to D&F in Ninh Thuan province (53 pages) The research reviews 119 relevant documents, 29 domestic and 91 foreign DISSERTATION CONTENT CHAPTER OVERVIEW OF THE RESEARCH ISSUES 1.1 RELATED CONCEPTS 1.1.1 - Spatial structure of urban system Space, urban spatial structure across levels and impact factors SSUS or USS consists of 04 main physical components: water sur- face, vegetation, vacant land and built-up land At the regional level, water surface and greenery predominate At the urban level, built-up land space prevails SS is the organization and arrangement of spatial components at study levels in connection with each other to operate and interact with external systems There are many approaches to SSUS: 1/ urbanism, 2/ ecology, 3/ morphology, 4/ socio-economic, etc The dissertation approaches SSUS from an ecological point of view The main contents for studying SSUS at the two levels- coincide with SSUS attribute- are functions, networks, and forms - Impact factors on urban spatial structure There are mainly natural and social factors Natural one includes natural environment, topography, climate, geology, hydrology, etc Social one includes mechanisms, policies, infrastructure, etc 1.1.2 D&F phenomenon and capactity of D&FES D&F: they are natural phenomena and social ones, formed mainly from the transformation of land use functions D&FES: 1/ Water and food supply, 2/ Flood and drought regulation, etc They have spatial elements (topography, slope, hydrology, soil, etc.), constructed into D&FES map 1.1.3 - Adaptability of spatial structure of urban system to D&F Adaptation 12 2.2.2 - Theoretical basis Conceptual and theoretical framework Built from expansion to narrowing of derived concepts - SSUS, impact factors and principles of adaptive SSUS SSUS The regional and urban planning theories are added to the concepts presented in the overview SSUS is approached from the ecological point of view, which is structured by 04 environments: 1/ Biology, 2/ Physics, 3/ Society, and 4/ Built-up Impact factors SSUS changes under the influence of natural and social factors Natural ones are topography, slope, hydrology, soil, etc The social ones are mechanisms, policies and activities The principles of adaptive SSUS to D&F Adaptive principles to nature from McHarg to natural landscape from Dramstad, adaptive planning strategies from Jack Ahern, and the organizational principles of green infrastructure (GI) - D&F and D&FES capacity D&F are natural and social phenomena They can self-regulate through D&FES capacities It has spatial elements, which is the basis for constructing the D&FES map - SSUS adaptability to D&F Adaptive urbanism They spread through 03 stages: resilience- tran- sition- transformation Adaptive SSUS is the arrangement and organization of internal spatial components (amount, properties, forms) in the relationship with external space (context, connection, dynamics, etc.) (Nystrom) SSUS adaptive to D&F From the perspective of 3-stages cycle (Pelling, 2011) and 4-stages one (C.S Hollings, 2010) Application of adaptation in the relationship with floods in Rotterdam (Peiwen Lu, 2013) and urbanization (Mehmet Hakan, 2012) 13 Assessment framework of USS adaptability to D&F: based on assessing each spatial element’s adaptability to D&F 2.2.3 Practical basis Regional level Integrating GI into adaptive USS across levels in China, taking water surface as the foundation to provide essential ecological utilities, focusing on 1/ Infertility process (water management), 2/ Organic process (biodiversity conservation), and 3/ Culture (natural heritage protection and recreation) Urban level 1/ Case of Taizhou, China builds 'security patterns': minimum, medium, maximum; Guidance sets of landscape ecology on multi-level approaches, model relationships and processes, and connectivity, especially to hydrological networks 2/The Case of Antwerp, Belgium, promotes developing a cooperative network based on the ambition of multifunctional urban construction at all levels In addition, individual residential gardens are also used to assess the impact of green urban health on the environment 2.3 BASIS AND METHODS FOR ASSESSING ADAPTABILITY TO D&F OF URBAN SYSTEM SPATIAL STRUCTURE 2.3.1 Basis and methods of building D&FES map The D&FES (4 zones) map is based on the theoretical foundations of ES, natural features forming D&F in Ninh Thuan province The main methods of implementation are analysis-synthesis and mapping 2.3.2 Basis and methods to evaluate SSUS transformation process Identifying the essential components and their role in D&FES capacity is an essential base The US consists of constituents, and SSUS has 03 attributes They change over time For D&FES capacity, the water surface supplies services; greenery plays supporting, built-up land hinders Since then, 06 indicators have been built: compatibility, diversity, efficiency, connectivity, redundancy, robust- 14 ness Compatibility and efficiency are core indicators assessing functional suitability to nature (location and scale) The remains assess network variability and spatial configuration 2.3.3 Basis and methods to determine adaptability levels USS adaptability is determined in 03 levels: high, medium, and low The basis and methods focus on the variability of SSUS properties over time, which affects D&FES capacity Functional variables are highly adaptive when the transformations are consistent with D&FES zones Network variables are highly adaptable when network density is highly dense and reachable With physical variables, it is highly adaptable when the boundary form fits into the natural landscape CHAPTER SPATIAL STRUCTURE OF URBAN SYSTEM ADAPTIVE TO DROUGHT AND FLOOD IN NINH THUAN PROVINCE 3.1 RESEARCH POINT OF VIEW The dissertation is studied under the policies and guidelines of the Party and the Country, the overall orientations of the national urban system, and the overall socio-economic development of the region and Ninh Thuan province to develop the socio-economy and protect environmental resources In addition, it must be consistent with the orientation of sustainable urban development and have a local cultural identity of Ninh Thuan province US across levels is an ecosystem in the relationship with D&F It consists of 04 spatial components USS across levels have 03 properties: function, network, and shape They transform according to the variables relatively: location, nature, amount, connectivity, flexibility, boundaries, volume, and robustness For the D&FES capacity, water surface plays a supplying role, trees support, and built-up land blocks 15 3.2 ASSESSMENT FRAMEWORK OF ADAPTABILITY TO D&F OF SPATIAL STRUCTURE OF URBAN SYSTEM IN NINH THUAN 3.2.1 - D&FES capacity map Water Ecoregion (WE) The area with the Cai River is the backbone, originating from the mountains (altitude 400 to > 1,000m), passing through the mid zone (from 200-400m) and down to the delta zone (from 0-200m) and buffer zones along the water The scale of 43,284 (16%) is divided into 03 levels: water surface, groundwater pocket and low-lying area - Alpine Ecoregion (AE) The area is mainly cliffs with steep slopes (>10-15%), covering 3/4 of the province The area: 89,074 (33%), divided into 03 levels, > 400m and 10-15%, > 400m and > 15%, >1,000m and >15% - Midland Ecoregion (ME) The area has elevations and slopes of 100-200m and 10-15%, 200- 400m and >15% Area of 50,496 (19%), divided into 02 levels - Delta Ecoregion (DE) The area has a low to medium level (0-400m) and relatively flat to flat terrain (

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