(Luận văn) phát triển tài chính và tăng trưởng kinh tế

t to BỘ GIÁO DỤC VÀ ĐÀO TẠO ng hi TRƯỜNG ĐẠI HỌC KINH TẾ TP HỒ CHÍ MINH ep w n lo ad ju y th Phạm Dương Phương Thảo yi pl ua al n PHÁT TRIỂN TÀI CHÍNH n va fu ll VÀ TĂNG TRƯỞNG KINH TẾ oi m at nh z z jm ht vb k LUẬN ÁN TIẾN SĨ KINH TẾ om l.c gm an Lu n va ey t re Tp Hồ Chí Minh - Năm 2019 t to ng BỘ GIÁO DỤC VÀ ĐÀO TẠO hi TRƯỜNG ĐẠI HỌC KINH TẾ TP HỒ CHÍ MINH ep w n lo ad ju y th Phạm Dương Phương Thảo yi pl ua al n PHÁT TRIỂN TÀI CHÍNH n va ll fu VÀ TĂNG TRƯỞNG KINH TẾ oi m nh at Chuyên ngành: Tài – Ngân hàng z 9340201 z Mã số: k jm ht vb l.c gm LUẬN ÁN TIẾN SĨ KINH TẾ om NGƯỜI HƯỚNG DẪN KHOA HỌC: an Lu PGS.TS PHAN THỊ BÍCH NGUYỆT n va ey t re Tp Hồ Chí Minh – Năm 2019 Trang i LỜI CAM ĐOAN t to ng hi ep Tôi xin cam đoan luận án tiến sĩ với đề tài “Phát triển tài Tăng trưởng kinh tế” cơng trình nghiên cứu độc lập tơi Các thơng tin, số liệu w n luận án trung thực, có nguồn gốc trích dẫn rõ ràng, cụ thể chưa công lo ad bố cơng trình nghiên cứu khác y th TP.HCM, ngày 01 tháng 12 năm 2019 ju yi Nghiên cứu sinh pl n ua al va n Phạm Dương Phương Thảo ll fu oi m at nh z z k jm ht vb om l.c gm an Lu n va ey t re Trang ii MỤC LỤC t to ng Contents hi ep LỜI CAM ĐOAN i w MỤC LỤC ii n lo ad DANH MỤC TỪ VIẾT TẮT vi y th DANH MỤC BẢNG vii ju yi DANH MỤC HÌNH ix pl ua al TRANG THÔNG TIN NHỮNG ĐIỂM MỚI CỦA LUẬN ÁN x n CONTRIBUTION OF THE THESIS xii va n TÓM TẮT xiii ll fu MỞ ĐẦU at nh CHƯƠNG oi m ABSTRACT xiv 1.1 Bối cảnh nghiên cứu luận án z z ht vb 1.2 Khoảng trống nghiên cứu .4 k jm 1.3 Vấn đề nghiên cứu mục tiêu nghiên cứu gm 1.4 Đối tượng phạm vi nghiên cứu om l.c 1.5 Phương pháp nghiên cứu 1.6 Tóm tắt kết nghiên cứu 11 an Lu 1.7 Những đóng góp luận án .12 2.1.1 Phân biệt Tăng trưởng kinh tế Phát triển kinh tế 16 ey 2.1 Tăng trưởng kinh tế 16 t re CHƯƠNG 2TỔNG QUAN LÝ THUYẾT VÀ NGHIÊN CỨU TRƯỚC ĐÂY .15 n va 1.8 Kết cấu luận án 13 Trang iii 2.1.2 Hàm sản xuất 16 t to 2.1.3 Đo lường tăng trưởng kinh tế 17 ng hi 2.2 Phát triển tài 18 ep 2.2.1 Hệ thống tài 18 w n 2.2.2 Sự phát triển tài .20 lo ad 2.2.3 Đo lường phát triển tài .22 y th Tỷ số tín dụng cho khu vực tư nhân GDP 22 2.2.3.2 Tỷ số tín dụng nội địa GDP 23 2.2.3.1 ju yi pl Tỷ số cung tiền GDP .23 2.2.3.4 Các chỉ tiêu đo lường thị trường tài chính so với GDP 25 2.2.3.5 Các phương pháp đo lường khác 26 n ua al 2.2.3.3 n va fu ll 2.3 Vai trị phát triển tài lý thuyết tăng trưởng kinh tế 30 oi m nh 2.4 Bằng chứng thực nghiệm tác động Phát triển tài chính đến Tăng trưởng at kinh tế 35 z z 2.4.1 Tác động tích cực Phát triển tài chính đến tăng trưởng kinh tế 36 vb jm ht 2.4.2 Tác động phi tuyến Phát triển tài chính lên Tăng trưởng kinh tế 43 k Kết luận chương .54 gm PHƯƠNG PHÁP NGHIÊN CỨU 55 l.c CHƯƠNG om 3.1 Câu hỏi nghiên cứu giả thuyết nghiên cứu 55 an Lu 3.2 Dữ liệu nghiên cứu .58 3.4.2 Biến độc lập (Phát triển tài – FD) 65 ey 3.4.1 Biến phụ thuộc (Tăng trưởng kinh tế - GROWTH) 64 t re 3.4 Các biến số mơ hình 64 n va 3.3 Mơ hình nghiên cứu 60 Trang iv 3.4.3 Các biến kiểm soát 66 t to 3.5 Phương pháp ước lượng .72 ng hi 3.5.1 Phương pháp hồi quy ngưỡng dành cho liệu bảng 74 ep 3.5.2 Phương pháp hồi quy GMM .79 w Kết luận chương .81 n lo ad CHƯƠNG KẾT QUẢ NGHIÊN CỨU 82 y th 4.1 Thống kê mô tả 82 ju yi 4.2 Phân tích tác động phi tuyến phát triển tài chính đến tăng trưởng kinh tế pl ua al liệu ngân hàng 87 n 4.2.1 Kết hồi quy ngưỡng 87 va Tín dụng cho khu vực tư nhân .87 4.2.1.2 Tín dụng nước .94 4.2.1.3 Nợ khoản /GDP 96 n 4.2.1.1 ll fu oi m nh at 4.2.2 Kết ước lượng system-GMM 101 z z 4.3 Phân tích tác động phi tuyến phát triển tài chính đến tăng trưởng kinh tế vb jm ht liệu TTCK .105 k 4.3.1 Kết hồi quy ngưỡng 105 gm Quy mô vốn hóa thị trường/GDP 105 4.3.1.2 Vòng quay TTCK 108 4.3.1.3 Quy mô giao dịch TTCK/GDP 109 om l.c 4.3.1.1 an Lu 4.3.2 Kết ước lượng GMM .113 ey 4.4.2 Phân tích mẫu phụ High income 117 t re 4.4.1 Thống kê mô tả .115 n va 4.4 Phân tích mẫu phụ .115 Trang v 4.4.3 Phân tích mẫu phụ Middle income 119 t to Kết luận chương 123 ng hi CHƯƠNG KHUYẾN NGHỊ CHÍNH SÁCH PHÁT TRIỂN TÀI CHÍNH ĐỂ ep TĂNG TRƯỞNG KINH TẾ TẠI CÁC NƯỚC CHÂU Á 125 w 5.1 Cơ cấu phát triển cách thức quản lý hệ thống tài cần linh hoạt, tăng n lo khả cạnh tranh 126 ad y th 5.2 Minh bạch thông tin hoạt động hệ thống tài 128 ju 5.3 Đảm bảo an toàn cho hệ thống tài 129 yi pl 5.4 Chính sách tiền tệ linh hoạt 130 al n ua 5.5 Phát triển khu vực tài chính mực 131 n va 5.6 Hiện đại hóa hệ thống tài 132 fu ll 5.7 Nâng cao vai trò chủ thể tham gia hệ thống tài 133 m oi 5.8 Các ý kiến đề xuất khác 134 nh at 5.9 Hạn chế đề tài hướng nghiên cứu tương lai 136 z z DANH MỤC CÁC CƠNG TRÌNH ĐÃ CƠNG BỐ 138 vb jm ht TÀI LIỆU THAM KHẢO 139 k PHỤ LỤC 151 om l.c gm an Lu n va ey t re Trang vi DANH MỤC TỪ VIẾT TẮT t to ng hi ep ADB: Asian Development Bank Auto Regressive Distributed Lag w ARDL: n lo ad GDP: y th GNP: Gross Domestic Product Gross National Product ju yi Global Financial Development Database GMM: Generalized Method of Moments IMF: International Monetary Fund TTCK: Thị trường chứng khoán UNDP: Chương trình Phát triển Liên Hiệp Quốc UAE: Các Tiểu vương quốc Ả Rập Thống Nhất WDI: World Development Indicators WGI: World Governance Indicators 2SLS: 2-Stage Least Squares pl GFDD: n ua al n va ll fu oi m at nh z z k jm ht vb om l.c gm an Lu n va ey t re Trang vii DANH MỤC BẢNG t to ng hi ep Bảng 2.1 Tóm lược lý thuyết tăng trưởng kinh tế 29 Bảng 3.1 Phân loại nước mẫu theo thu nhập 60 w Bảng 3.2 Các biến số mơ hình nghiên cứu 72 n lo ad Bảng 4.1 Thống kê mơ tả tồn mẫu 82 y th Bảng 4.2 Thống kê chỉ tiêu Phát triển tài tồn mẫu 84 ju Bảng 4.3 Ma trận tương quan biến mơ hình nghiên cứu 86 yi pl Bảng 4.4 Kết hồi quy ngưỡng với FD đo lường Tín dụng cho khu vực tư ua al nhân/GDP 88 n Bảng 4.5 Kiểm định tồn ngưỡng FD =Tín dụng cho khu vực tư va nhân/GDP 89 n ll fu Bảng 4.6 Kiểm định tồn ngưỡng FD =Tín dụng nước /GDP 94 oi m Bảng 4.7 Kết hồi quy ngưỡng với FD = Tín dụng nước /GDP 95 nh Bảng 4.8 Kiểm định tồn ngưỡng FD = Nợ khoản /GDP 96 at Bảng 4.9 Kết hồi quy ngưỡng với FD = Nợ khoản /GDP 97 z z Bảng 4.10 Tóm tắt kết hồi quy ngưỡng (bank-based) 99 vb jm ht Bảng 4.11 Kết hồi quy ngưỡng với nguồn vốn người đo HDI 100 Bảng 4.12 Giá trị ngưỡng Phát triển tài (bank-based) 101 k gm Bảng 4.13 Kết system-GMM (bank-based) 103 l.c Bảng 4.14 Kiểm định Ho: (𝛽1 + 𝛽2 = 0) 104 om Bảng 4.15 Kiểm định giá trị ngưỡng FD= Quy mơ vốn hóa TTCK/GDP 105 an Lu Bảng 4.16 Kết hồi quy ngưỡng FD = Quy mơ vốn hóa TTCK/GDP 106 Bảng 4.17 Kết hồi quy ngưỡng FD = Vòng quay TTCK 108 ey 109 t re Bảng 4.19 Kiểm định giá trị ngưỡng FD = Quy mô giao dịch TTCK / GDP n va Bảng 4.18 Kiểm định giá trị ngưỡng FD = Vòng quay TTCK 109 Trang viii t to Bảng 4.20 Kết hồi quy ngưỡng FD = Quy mô giao dịch TTCK/GDP 110 ng Bảng 4.21 Tóm tắt kết hồi quy ngưỡng với FD đo liệu TTCK 111 hi ep Bảng 4.22 Tóm tắt giá trị ngưỡng Phát triển tài (market-based) 112 Bảng 4.23 Kết GMM liệu TTCK 113 w n Bảng 4.24 Thống kê mô tả mẫu High income 115 lo ad Bảng 4.25 Thống kê mô tả mẫu Middle income 116 y th Bảng 4.26 Kết hồi quy ngưỡng mẫu phụ High income 117 ju Bảng 4.27 Kiểm định tồn ngưỡng mẫu phụ High income 119 yi pl Bảng 4.28 Kết hồi quy mẫu phụ Middle income 120 ua al Bảng 4.29 Kiểm định tồn ngưỡng mẫu phụ Middle income 121 n Bảng 4.30 Ngưỡng Phát triển tài mẫu phụ tồn mẫu 122 n va ll fu oi m at nh z z k jm ht vb om l.c gm an Lu n va ey t re ad ju y th 11 yi pl CHAPTER ua al RESEARCH METHODOLOGY n n va 3.1 Research method m ll fu Panel data is used to analyze in this thesis for its advantage that combines both dimensions of countries and time Panel Threshold oi Regression model for panel data by Hansen (1999) is used This model nh is then developed by Wang (2015) in Stata software with the feature at of Fixed Effect This method requires data to be completely balanced z z panel 𝐺𝑅𝑂𝑊𝑇𝐻𝑖𝑡 = 𝜇𝑖 + 𝛽1 𝐹𝐷𝑖𝑡 𝐼(𝐹𝐷𝑖𝑡 ≤ 𝜆) + 𝛿1 𝐼(𝐹𝐷𝑖𝑡 ≤ 𝜆) + 𝛽2 𝐹𝐷𝑖𝑡 𝐼(𝐹𝐷𝑖𝑡 > 𝜆) + 𝛾𝑋𝑖𝑡 +𝜃𝑡+ 𝜀𝑖𝑡 i = 1,…,N is country t = 1,…,T is time µi is the country-specific fixed effect 𝜃𝑡 is the time effect The level of financial development (FD variable) is the threshold variable used to split the sample into two regimes FD variable plays the role as explanatory variable λ is the unknown threshold parameter jm this thesis takes the following form: ht function in Law and Singh (2014), the threshold regression model in vb Based on King and Levine (1993 a,b) combining with threshold ad ju y th 12 yi pl I(.) is the indicator function, which takes the value if the ua al argument in parenthesis is valid, and otherwise n va This type of modelling strategy allows the role of finance to n differ, depending on whether FD is below or above some unknown m ll fu level of λ Effects of FD on the depending variable GROWTH is divided into different regimes, recognized by different β1 and β2 oi nh As a result, it is possible to capture the changing effect of the FD z time determine the value of the threshold at explanatory variable when passing the threshold value, and at the same z out including: Use different proxies: the key explanatory variable in the model is FD – for the financial development – will be measured with different proxies: Private credit to GDP; Domestic credit to GDP; Liquid liabilities (M3) to GDP (Law Singh, 2014); Stock market capitalization to GDP; Stock traded, total value (% of GDP); Stock market turnover ratio (%) (Cihak cộng sự, 2012) Analyze in sub-sample: Split the research sample into subsamples based on criteria of classifying country by income GNI per capita, World Bank 2017 Use another econometric method: Dummy variable is used to divide the research sample into regimes based on the threshold value jm Other methods to test the consistency of results are also carried ht other explanatory variables to the regression model vb For consistency of results, in this thesis, the author in turn adds ad ju y th 13 yi pl found with Panel Threshold Regression This dummy variable takes ua al the value if FD is over threshold, and otherwise Interactive n variable formed between the dummy and FD is added into the model n va System – GMM method by Arellano and Bond (1991) is used to fu analyze effect of finance on growth before and after the threshold The m ll application of another economic method GMM is to solve potential oi problems of the model such as endogeneity, heteroskedasticity, nh autocorrelation Furthermore, using GMM method as an alternative z whether the research results are consistent or not at for analysis of the same research problem is also the way to consider z are assessed on both aspects: bank based and stock market based However, when analyzing the level of financial development in terms of financial markets, the sample must be excluded Brunei, Maldives, Cambodia, Myanmar, and Taijikistan because there is no stock market in these countries; and excluded Armenia, Bangladesh, Kuwait, Kyrgyz Republic, Nepal, Mongolia because of no data in 2013-2016 That’s why analysis with stock market based data has only 22 countries in 2004-2016 jm system development in 33 countries Data of countries in the sample ht The object of this study is economic growth and financial vb 3.2 Data ad ju y th 14 yi pl Table 3.1 Variables in the research models ua al Variable Meaning Source Economic GROWTH GDP growth (annual %) privatecre Private credit to GDP Financial domescre Domestic credit to GDP development liq Liquid liabilities (M3) to GDP smcapliz Stock market capitalization to n Factor WDI % WDI growth n va % m ll fu WDI % GFDD % GFDD oi % at nh GDP Stock market turnover ratio (%) % GFDD smtrade Stock traded, total value (% of % GFDD % WDI z smturnover Population growth (annual) Income income GDP per capita Investment invest Gross capital formation (% of WDI % WDI GDP) Trade tradeop Trade openness to GDP % WDI Inflation infla Inflation rate based on CPI % WDI Institution inst Average score of index Human mys Average year of schooling hci Human Capital Index WGI year UNDP UNDP Source: the author’s jm pop ht vb Population capital z GDP) ad ju y th 15 yi pl CHAPTER 4: RESEARCH RESULTS ua al n The sample includes 33 Asian economies in the period of 2004- va 2016 to make a balanced panel Descriptive statistics in Table 4.1 n showing that Asian economies in the sample have average economic oi m ll fu growth about 5,37% with maximum of 26,17% at nh z Compared with developed economies in Europe and America, However, the global financial crisis 2008 is in the research period, so it is inevitable that some markets could not maintain the high growth rate as before, and even decrease such as -14,15% (Armenia in 2009) The average GDP per capita of countries in the sample is 14 055,7 USD/year Table 4.1 Descriptive Statistics N Mean SD Min Max growth 429 5,377195 4,277762 -14,15 26,1702 pop 429 2,033399 2,440679 -0,8638 16,3316 income 429 14055,7 17567,18 491,6975 72670,96 invest 429 27,51565 7,944809 10,3775 58,1507 tradeop 429 94,68592 66,81454 0,1674 441,6038 jm and Thailand which have a rapid growth rate in the modern period ht Indonesia, South Korea, Turkey, Iran, Saudi Arab, Russia, Singapore, vb emerging economies in the sample such as China, India, Japan, z these growth rates are rather high thank for the fact that there are many ad ju y th 16 yi -4,8633 39,2664 5,038939 3,4603 30,0035 0,6902128 -1,7516 1,5922 2,579076 2,7 12,8 2,55965 0,597483 3,71 429 58,65262 39,22993 fu 429 5,938118 goexp 429 13,68105 inst 429 -0,2190224 mys 429 8,415385 hci 429 privatecre 5,431072 3,1211 173,537 domescre 429 71,82900 59,13059 -10,1518 345,7219 liquid 429 65,41786 42,66564 6,7058 217,702 pl infla n ua al n va oi m ll nh Source: the author’s at z z in different value areas of the measure of financial development In another words, the relationship between financial development and economic growth is nonlinear; there appears a threshold value of financial development that, above this threshold, the impact caused by financial development changes compared to the previous one Table 4.2 Threshold value of Financial Development (bank-based) Financial development threshold Min Max Private credit to GDP 8,9762 8,4427 9,3103 Domestic credit to GDP 8,8641 8,1817 9,2651 18,4802 17,9976 19,6984 M3/GDP Source: the author’s jm only positive, it can also have a negative impact on economic growth ht Table 4.2 confirm that in Asian countries, financial development is not vb The results of Panel Threshold Regression are shown briefly in ad ju y th 17 yi pl ua al Empirical results with the whole sample are similar with the ones n va in sub-samples, confirming that threshold value: Private credit should n be 8,9762% of GDP; Domestic credit is 8,8641% of GDP; Liquid m ll fu liabilities (or broad money M3) should be 18,0957% of GDP oi In the aspect of stock market, threshold value are as following: nh Stock market capitalization is 81,8477% of GDP; Stock market z be 51,2688% of GDP at turnover ratio should be 27,3429%, stock market, traded value should z However, with stock market based data, financial development has positive correlation in the under-regime but in the over-regime, it still has positive effect with smaller level This implies that financial development still enhances economic growth when finance is over the threshold but the level is decreased Table 4.3 shows these findings jm economic growth but in the over-regime, it shows negative effect ht the regime under the threshold value, financial development enhances vb All results from bank-based data are significant, showing that in ad ju y th 18 yi pl Table 4.3 Threshold Regression with stock market based data va capitalization FD = Stock n market ua al FD= Stock market turnover FD= Stock traded n 51,2688 (26,1388; 81,9182) 27,8660) (44,6318; oi (72,4982; m ll (estimator 95%) 27,3429 fu 81,8477 Threshold 52,8341) at nh (0,000) (0,000) (0,000) 0,0289*** 0,0081 0,0034 (0,000) (0,230) (0,415) Source: the author’s This result implies that developing and developing countries in Asia can still pursue economic growth targets by developing financial sector more to promote its effects on the economy.However, high level of financial development does not always beneficial for national economic growth Nowadays, an optiomal level of financial development which fosters sustainable growth should be taken into consideration for those countries jm 0,0438*** ht 0,0707*** vb 0,0450*** z Over threshold z Under threshold ad ju y th 19 yi pl CHAPTER 5: ua al n SOLUTIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS FOR FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT TO ECONOMIC GROWTH IN ASIAN COUNTRIES n va fu m ll The key issue here for policy is not extended operations of oi banking sector or stock market, but it is emphasized that solutions at financial development nh should focus on exploiting the effectiveness and positive role of z recommendation are suggested in order to develop financial system properly, aiming to economic growth sustainably in long term as following: 5.1 Structure of financial system development and managing methods should be flexible and increase competitiveness The positive contribution financial system can make to economic growth process depends on its design and operation Therefore, the choice of structure to develop financial system should ensure the principle of flexibility and respect for the market Asian financial markets have unequal development, which does not create a real competitive environment for capital Low capital account liberalization, simple products, lack of popular derivative jm Based on the results of this research, some solutions and ht countries in the world - could be achieved in long term vb sustainable economic growth, reducing the gap with developed z In this way, pursuing goals of Asian countries - which is ad ju y th 20 yi pl products also reduce the efficiency and make the market not attractive n ua al to foreign investors va The results of this thesis show that threshold values of financial n development in Asian economies are not high What these countries m ll fu need to in their financial system development strategy is not expansion in size or quantity, but must focus on in-depth financial oi development, increased efficiency and adding value nh at The results also imply that there is a need to improve the z effectiveness of monetary policy and the management of banking financial market 5.2 Information transparency in the operation of the financial system Financial markets perform well, which is reflected in their efficiency and liquidity (Dorruci cộng sự, 2009) Meanwhile, the problem which exists for a long time, is the barrier in financial market of developing Asian countries is the information asymmetry This always happens in the process of mobilizing and using capital Therefore, ensuring the transparency of information in the operation of financial system should be a top goal in developing operational strategies, building a full legal frame and regulations for the operation of banking system and other intermediary financial institutions, for trading on capital markets and stock markets jm interaction of many different organizations and individuals in the ht services of financial intermediaries; relating to the operation and vb an overall process of improving quantity, quality, and efficiency of z system operations in these countries Solutions are not discrete, but in ad ju y th 21 yi pl 5.3 Security for financial system ua al In order to develop financial sector strongly and sustainably, n va for promoting economic growth, it is necessary to carry out financial n safety supervision in the monetary market, banking system, stock m ll fu market, and other financial markets such as insurance market The most important thing is ensuring the ratio of available capital, oi periodically report to the market management agency nh at For the operation of monetary market and banking sector: z apply international standards such as Basel II, CAMELS to ensure z safety in operation Flexible monetary policy policy, strengthen fiscal situation and moderate credit growth to strengthen macroeconomic policy framework and enhance resilience to economic shocks For financial development, flexible monetary policies and sensitive solutions based on actual movements of the market are essential However, this development had better ensure optimization at an appropriate level to promote economic growth 5.5 Suitable level of financial development Nowadays, World Bank encourages UFA (Universal Financial Access) that is more accessing of people to the financial system is an important factor to help reduce poverty and improve economic growth So, up to 2020 UFA should be done globally Many countries including Vietnam have agreed to participate in this agreement Nevertherless, developing Asian countries shouls realize jm It is necessary to maintain flexible and adaptive monetary ht vb 5.4 ad ju y th 22 yi pl that financial development is a process of improving both the quantity, ua al quality and efficiency of the financial system in relation to the n operation and interaction of various organizations and individuals in va the market They should develop the financial sector both in width and n fu depth at a proper level Excessive financial development at all costs, Modernization of financial system at nh 5.6 oi will be eliminated m ll the positive role and promote economic growth of the financial system z Strong, safe, efficient, and broadly developed infrastructure Increase role of entities participating in the financial system From experience of Singapore, countries whose financial system still low developed can learn how to make policy for financial development: It’s important to focus on develop for all entities in the market rather than creating specific incentives for governmentmanaged financial institutions This leads to fair environment, encouraging fair competition in the financial market, making right motivation for financial system to develop 5.8 Other suggestions The thesis also found conclusions regarding control variables Based on the results of this study to propose the following additional solutions: jm 5.7 ht services to meet the diversity of people needs vb services, expanding network, and diversifying payment products and z for finance will contribute to the efficiency of trading account ad ju y th 23 yi pl  Reduce government expenditure to make less budget deficit ua al and ensure financial security Improve the efficiency of government n expenditures n va  Infrastructure investment should be focused effectively, m ll Partnership fu minimizing investment in wrong objectives Encourage Public-Private oi  Strengthening the role of supervision and consultancy of at relevant provisions of the current laws nh socio-political organizations; Build-up, supplement, amend the z  Promote structural reforms, including business and banking workers  For gainning growth in long run in developing Asian countries like Vietnam, there should be institutional reform in a comprehensive manner, developing legal regulations to suit the reality 5.9 Limitation and future research This study also cannot avoid some limitation: not many countries with enough data to be collected, so the sample size is small This also motivates the author to an extended research in future when overcoming difficulties in accessing data, expanding to larger observation sample Some variables in the model have not achieved statistical significance such as institutional variables, human capital, and inflation Therefore, a future research is to study additional factors jm institutional environment, attract human capital - i.e high-quality ht policies for the operation of the financial system, improve the vb  Continue to improve the legal framework, mechanisms and z sector reforms; implement policies to promote trade liberalization ad ju y th 24 yi pl for economic growth such as geopolitics, science and technology ua al development, innovation, and political institutions to obtain insight n understanding for developing economies with different political va institutions such as China, Vietnam, and suitable with the world n oi m ll fu changing with Industrial Revolution 4.0 at nh z z jm ht vb 25 AUTHOR’S PUBLICATION t to 13) Phan Thị Bích Nguyệt & Phạm Dương Phương Thảo (2018) Limitation of Financial ng Development in Asian countries Banking Science and Training Review , No 199- hi December/2018 ep 14) Phan Thị Bích Nguyệt & Phạm Dương Phương Thảo (2018) Threshold of Financial Development enhancing Economic Growth sustainably for Asian countries Review of Finance, w n Volume 2-December/2018 Phạm Dương Phương Thảo (2018) Effects of Financial Development threshold to Economic lo 15) ad Growth in Asian developing countries National Conference Proceedings 2018 “Accounting – 79-1828-7 Phạm Dương Phương Thảo (2018), Application of threshold model to effects of financial yi 16) ju y th Auditing – Finance in Vitenam: Current situation and solutions”, Finance Press, ISBN: 978-604- pl development to economic growth Science Conference Proceedings “Models in Finance: Theory al Phan Thị Bích Nguyệt & Phạm Dương Phương Thảo (2016) Economic growth and n 17) ua & Practice”, UEH Publishing House, ISBN: 978-604-922-641-0 va Financial Development in Asian developing countries Journal of Development and Intergration, n ll fu 28(38), 69-74 m oi Research at University level (2015), member, “Effects of financial development to economic nh growth: Empirical study in Vietnam and some Asian countries” – Accepted with ranking of Good at z z k jm ht vb om l.c gm an Lu n va ey t re