165 The appreciable rise in GDP, to reach 426 7 billion US dollars by 2030, is the main driver for considerably increased energy demand to satisfy socio economic development, rapid urbanization, and m[.]
165 The appreciable rise in GDP, to reach 426.7 billion US dollars by 2030, is the main driver for considerably increased energy demand to satisfy socio-economic development, rapid urbanization, and maximizing the production output of the energy, food, and water sectors Furthermore, major contribution to the high growth in energy demand of SC5 is derived from the energy demand for maximizing energy production capacity, expansion of the food-processing sector, and sewage water treatment, which are in line with the key assumptions of this scenario, as discussed in Chapter In SC5, the increasing energy demand at a similar pace to the SC2 Energy scenario would require similar investment in the energy sector but would generate much higher positive impacts through higher GDP growth (the largest GDP among all scenarios) The cross-sectoral approach policy considers energy–food–water linkages when deploying new technology in all three sectors with regard to their interaction and mutual impacts, which would contribute the most to the GDP growth Notwithstanding the positive impacts on economic output and energy security in general, major challenges for the environment regarding the increasing CO emissions of SC5 need attention from a policy viewpoint Table 6-2: Growth rate of energy demand in various scenarios during 2014–2030 (%/year) 2030 SC1 2030 SC2 2030 SC3 2030 SC4 2030 SC5 2030 SC6 BAU Energy Food Water FEW Low Carbon Primary Energy Demand Coal 8.3 11.0 8.3 8.4 10.7 10.5 Oil 8.1 11.2 8.1 8.2 11.2 11.1 Gas 8.1 10.2 8.1 8.2 10.3 10.2 Electricity — Fossil (ElF) 7.9 12.2 7.9 7.9 11.6 11.5 Electricity — Hydropower (ElH) 7.7 11.8 7.8 7.8 11.2 11.0 Electricity — Renewables (ElR) 0.0 69.9 0.0 0.0 69.0 68.6 Electricity – Solar power (ElS) 0.0 65.1 0.0 0.0 64.2 63.9 Coal 7.1 8.3 7.0 7.3 8.1 8.5 Oil 7.0 9.1 7.0 7.2 9.0 9.7 Gas 6.9 10.2 6.8 7.1 10.6 9.8 Electricity — Fossil (ElF) 7.8 11.1 7.9 7.9 11.6 10.5 Electricity — Hydropower (ElH) 8.1 10.3 8.2 8.2 9.7 9.5 Electricity — Renewables (ElR) 0.0 71.8 0.0 0.0 70.9 70.6 Electricity –Solar power (ElS) 0.0 67.0 0.0 0.0 66.1 65.8 Final Energy Demand Source: Estimates based on modelling developed in this research