160 generation capacity and supply is highly prioritized, which would finally spur the primary energy demand for production As shown in Tables 6 1 and 6 2, during 2014–2030, the total primary energy d[.]
160 generation capacity and supply is highly prioritized, which would finally spur the primary energy demand for production As shown in Tables 6-1 and 6-2, during 2014–2030, the total primary energy demand is projected to rise by 10.9% per year, reaching 748.5 Mtoe in 2030, compared with 8% per year in the SC1 scenario, reaching 416.9 Mtoe The introduction and emphasis on developing renewable energy in SC2 is targeted in order to lessen the heavy reliance on indigenous resources over the next decades, and to plug the energy shortage due to the halting of nuclear power in 2016 In the final energy demand, the share of solar electricity and other renewables would increase by 4.2% and 6.6% Therefore, the total share of fossil fuels, including coal, oil, and gas, would reduce from 70.1% to 59.4% in the final energy demand Coal contributes the most to this decrease; its share is projected to decline %, from 33.9% in 2014 to 26.9% in 2030, as shown in Figure 6-3 Notwithstanding the decline in the share of fossil fuel, the substantial increase in the final energy demand from all socio-economic sectors would keep the demand for coal, oil, and gas high; they would account for the dominant shares at 26.9%, 24%, and 8.5%, respectively This would result in a high annual growth rate of fossil fuel demand for coal of 11% and for oil of 11.2% (Table 6-2) This fact would inevitably present a challenge for the environment, especially as it would increase CO emissions, which is discussed further in section 6.5 Figure 6-2: Total primary energy demand, various scenarios Source: Estimates are based on modelling developed in this research