Thẩm định dự án vay vốn trong ngành thép tại ngân hàng tmcp ngoại thương việt nam chi nhánh hải phòng

L V ThS 4429 I +1 TRUONG DAI HOC KINH TE QUOC DAN ■ ■ - DOAN THINGOC HUONG • I • DAI HOC KTQD TT THONG TIN TH If VIEN phOng LUANAN-TULIEuI THAM DINH DUAN VAY VON TRONG NGANH THEP ■ ■ TAI NGAN HANG TNICP NGOAITHUUNG VIET NAM ■ ■ ■ CHI NHANH HAI PHONG CHUYfiN NGANH: KINH t€ dAu W £ LUAN VAN THAC SY KINH t đ ã THS Ngirii hiring dan khoa hoc : PGS.TS NGUYfiN bach nguyEt HA KOI, JKAM 8010 * — LO’I CAM DOAN Toi xin cam doan day la cong trinh nghien cdu cua rieng toi Cac ket r r qua, ket luan neu luan van la trung thwc va chua duoc cong bo r r bat cd cong trinh khoa hoc nao Cac so lieu, tai lieu tham khao duoc trich /•> x r r a V dan co nguon goc ro rang Hai Phdng, 10 thang 09 nam 2010 FTN r • A w Tac gia luan van Doan Thi Ngoc Huang Ldl CAM ON Toi, hoc vien cao hoc kinh te dau tu KI 6, Doan Thi Ngoc Hucmg, tran cam an co giao, PGS TS Nguyen Bach Nguyet tan tinh huang dan toi hoan luan van Toi cung chan gui lai cam an tai cac thay, co, cac can bo cua truang Dai hoc Kinh te quoc dan, vien Dao tao Sau dai hoc va khoa Dau Tu da nhiet tinh chi bao, day do, tao dieu kien de toi hoan khoa hoc Hai Phong, 10 thang 09 nam 2010 Tac gia luan van Doan Thi Ngoc Hwang MUC • LUC • Danh muc cac chu viet tat Danh muc bang, bieu, so dd, hinh ve Tom tat luan van MO' BAU CHUONG 1: NHUNG VAN BE CO BAN VE THAM BINH DU AN TRONG CAC NHTM VA DU AN BAU TU NGANH THEP 1.1 Tham dinh du an cac NHTM 1.1.1 Su can thiet phai tham dinh du an cac NHTM 1.1.2 Can cu tham dinh du an dau tu 1.1.3 Quy trinh to chuc tham dinh du an dau tu 1.1.4 Noi dung tham dinh du an dau tu 1.1.5 Phuong phap tham dinh 1.2 Cac du an dau tu nganh thep 15 1.2.1 Vai tro va phan loai du an dau tu nganh thep 15 1.2.2 Bac diem cua DA nganh thep anh huong den cong tac tham dinh 17 1.2.2 Bac diem nganh thep Viet Nam anh huong den cOng tac tham dinh 17 1.2.4 Cac nhan to anh huong den cong tac tham dinhDAnganh thep 21 12 CHUO’NG 2: THUC TRANG THAM BINH DU • • • • AN VAY VON TRONG NGANH THEP TAI NAM • NGAN HANG TMCP NGOAI • THUONG VIET • CN HAI PHONG 26 2.1 Gioi thieu ve NHNT CN Hai Phong 26 2.1.1 Su ddi cua NHNT CN Hai Phong 26 2.1.2 Qua trinh hoat dong va ket qua dat dupc qua cac thoi ky 28 2.2 Thhu trrnn ccnn tac tham dinn BA vvy vvn thhuc nganh thep tai NHNT CN Hai Phong 33 2.2.1 Tongguanne h oat dong cho vayyac BDtronggganh theptai NHNT CN Hai Phong 33 2.2.2 Quy trinh tham dinh 38 2.2.3 Can cu tham dinh .40 2.2.4 Noi dung tham dinh 40 2.2.5 Phuong phap tham dinh 51 2.3 Vi d u minh h oa v e cong tac tham dinh DA v ay von n ganh thep tai NHNT CN Hai Phdng 54 2.3.1 Quy trinh tham dinh 56 2.3.2 Noi dung va phuong phap tham dinh DA 57 2.3.3 Ket luan va de xuat sau tham dinh 78 2.4 Dant gia c tnn tac thhm dint DA dnu tur tronn nntnt thhp tai NHHN CN Hai Phong 80 2.4.1 Ket qua dat duoc 80 2.4.2.Han che va nguyen nhan 844 «> r — A _ r z CHUONG 3: GIAI PHAP HOAN THIEN CONG TAC THAM DINH AA VAY VON TRONG NGANH THEP TAI NHNT CN HAl PHONG 89 3.1 Dinh htnrng phat trien cuv NHNT CN Hai Phong giai doan 2010 2015 89 3.1.1 Dinh huong phat trien tong the 89 3.1.2 Dinh huong phat trien hoat dong tin dung 91 3.1.3 Dinh huong phat trien hoat - dong tin dung doi voinganh thep 91 3.2 MM so gini phs^jn hoan thitn nong tat: thihimdinhDA vay von hong n ganh ihpp tai NHNT CN Hai Phong 92 3.2.1 Giai phap hoan thien quy trinh tham dinh 92 3.2.2 Giai phap hoan thien noi dung tham dinh 93 3.2.3 Giai phap hoan thien phuong phap tham dinh 99 3.2.4 Giai phap nang cao trinh chuyen mon cho CBTD 101 3.2.5 Cai thienmoi i nro^nglam vieeva doi moi conn nnge 102 3.2.6 Nann c ca chatl upnn thonntin 103 3.3 Mot s o kien hnnh 105 3.3.1 Kien nghi voi cac co quan quan ly nha nuoc .105 3.3.2 Kien nghi voi ngnii hang Nha nuoc Vint Nam 107 3.3.3 Kien nghi voi iignn hang TMCP Ngoai thuong Vint Nam 108 3.3.4 Kien nghi voi cac ngnn hang, TCTD tham gia dong tai trn 109 3.3.5 Kien nghi voi cac doanh nghinp ggagh thep 109 KET LUAN 109 DANH MUC TAI LIEU THAM KHAO 111 PHU LUC DANH MUC • CAC CHU VIET TAT ATM Automated teller machine CBKH Can bo khach hang CBTD Can bo tin dung CIC Credit information center (trung tam thdng tin tin dung) CN Chi nhanh CP Co phan DA Du an DVT Don vi tinh HDQT Hoi dong quan tri HDTD Hoi dong tin dung HDTV Hoi dong vien HP Hai Phdng IRR Internal Rate of Return ( Ty suat noi hoan) IBPS InterBank Payment System NHNT Ngan hang TMCP Ngoai Thuong NHTM Ngan hang thuong mai NPV Net Present Value ( Gia tri hien tai rong) QD Quyet dinh QHKH Quan he khach hang QLRR Quan ly rui ro SWOT Strengths -weaknesses - opotunities - Threats TCTD To chuc tin dung TMCP Thuong mai co phan TNHH Trach nhiem huu han TW Trung Vong VCB Vietcombank ( Ngan hang TMCP Ngoai Thuong Viet Nam) XHCN Xa hoi chu nghia DANH MUC BANG, BIEU, SO DO So Ten hieu Trang Sa 1.1 Quy trinh tham dinh du an tai cac NHTM 1.2 Quy trinh san xuat thep 16 2.1 Thi phan von huy dong tren dia ban Hai Phong 30 2.2 Co cau tin dung giai doan 2001-2009 31 2.3 Thi phan tin dung tren dia ban phO Hai Phong 31 2.4 Ket qua hoat dong kinh doanh giai doan 2001-2009 32 2.5 Quy trinh tham dinh DA dau tu tai NHNT Hai Phong theo QD 246 37 2.6 So sanh cung cau phoi thep 60 Bang 2.1 Von huy dong giai doan 2001-2009 29 2.2 Ket qua hoat dong giai doan 2001-2009 32 2.3 Du no phan theo cac nganh kinh te 34 2.4 Tinh hinh tham dinh DA vay von nganh thep 35 2.5 Phan tich SWOT doanh nghiep nganh thep 41 2.6 Toc tang truong cua nganh thep 58 2.7 Nhu cau thep va phoi thep hien tai va tuong lai 58 2.8 Cac nha may san xuat thep tho tai Viet Nam 59 2.9 60 2.10 San luong thep va phoi thep hien tai va tuong lai F - X Tong von dau tu cua du an 2.11 Do nhay cua du an 73 2.12 Du no vay von nganh thep 78 2.13 Thu nhap tu cho vay DA nganh thep 78 Phan tich tai chinh theo quan diem nguoi viet 97 3.1 68 Phu luc bang Tong doanh thu hang nam cua dir an Chi phi nguyen nhien vat lieu Chi phi nhan cong Khau hao tai san co dinh Ke hoach tra no va lai vay co dinh — Tong chi phi hang nam Bang tinh hieu qua dir an Bang tinh hieu qua du an doanh thu giam 5% Bang tinh hieu qua dir an chi phi bien doi tang 6% 10 Phan tich hieu qua du an theo quan diem nguoi viet *> / Phan tich nhay cua du an theo quan diem cua nguoi viet 11 110 KET LUAN Trong thdi gian qua, cung vdi su phat trien cang ldn manh cua ngan hang TMCP Ngoai Thuong CN Hai Phong, hoat dong tin dung luon duoc chu dac biet la cho vay cac DA, noi bat nhat la tai tro cac DA dau tu nganh thep vdi so luong va quy mo cang ldn Vdi muc tieu tang trudng di lien vdi an toan tin dung, NHNT CN Hai Phong luon quan tam den cong tac tham dinh DA de dam bao chat luong khoan vay Tren co sd nhu cau thuc tien, tac gia da lua chon nghien cuu de tai “ Tham dinh DA vay von nganh thep tai ngan hang TMCP Ngoai Thuong Viet Nam, chi nhanh Hai Phong” vdi viec ket hop ly luan va thuc tien hoat dong tham dinh tai chi nhanh Luan van hoan da gop phan lam sang td co sd ly luan va thuc tien cong tac tham dinh cac DA nganh thep tai NHNT CN Hai Phong, cu the: ve ly luan, tac gia da khai quat va he thong hoa duoc nhung van de ly luan co ban ve cong tac tham dinh DA vay von tai cac NHTM va cac DA dau tu nganh thep ve thuc tien, luan van bat dau tu viec khai quat hoat dong cua NHNT CN Hai Phong va hoat dong cho vay cac DA nganh thep cua ngan hang Sau di sau phan tich thuc trang cong tac tham dinh DA vay von nganh thep tai NHNT CN Hai Phong, minh hoa thong qua tham dinh DA “Khu lien hop gang thep r r r r cdng suat 250.000 tan/nam tai Bac Kan” Tu danh gia ket qua dat duoc cung nhu chi nhung han che, ton tai can tiep tuc giai quyet Luan van dong gop mot so giai phap co tinh thuc tien nham hoan thien cong tac tham dinh DA vay von nganh thep tai NHNT CN Hai Phong va dua nhung kien nghi doi vdi Chinh Phu, cac bo ban nganh lien quan, ngan hang Nha nudc va ngan hang Ngoai thuong Viet Nam cung nhu vdi cac TCTD, cac doanh nghiep nganh thep de tao dieu kien thuan loi hon cho ngan hang qua trinh tham dinh DA Vdi kien thuc va kinh nghiem thuc tien han che, tac gia rat mong nhan duoc y kien dong gop cua cac thay co giao va nhung ngudi co kinh nghiem quan tam den de tai de luan van duoc hoan thien hon Ill DANH MUC TAI LIEU THAM KHAO Chinh Phu (2007), Quyet dinh phe duyet quy hoach phat trien nganh thep Viet Nam giai doan 2007-2015, cd xet den nam 2020, (145/2007/QD-TTg), Ha Noi Ngan hang Ngoai Thuong Viet Nam (2003), Cam nang tin dung, Ha Noi Ngan hang Ngoai Thuong Viet Nam (2006), Thdng tin chuyen nganh thep Viet Nam, Ha Noi Ngan hang TMCP Ngoai Thuong Viet Nam (2009), He thdng xep hang tin dung noi bo, Ha Noi Ngan hang TMCP Ngoai Thuong Viet Nam chi nhanh Hai Phdng (2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009), Bao cao thudng nien, Hai Phdng Ngan hang TMCP Ngoai Thuong Viet Nam chi nhanh Hai Phdng (2005, 2006, 2007, 2008 2009), Bao cao tin dung, Hai Phong Ngan hang TMCP Ngoai Thuong Viet Nam chi nhanh Hai Phong (2007), Bao cao tong ket 30 nam chang dudng phat trien, Hai Phdng PGS TS Nguyen Bach Nguyet- TS Tu Quang Phuong (2007), Giao trinh Kinh te Dau tu, NXB Dai hoc Kinh te Quoc dan, Ha Noi PGS TS Nguyen Bach Nguyet (2008), Giao trinh Lap du an Dau tu, NXB Dai hoc Kinh te Quoc dan, Ha Noi 10 Phdng Quan ly rui ro tin dung ngan hang TMCP Ngoai Thuong Viet Nam CN Hai Phdng (2007), Bao cao tham dinh rui ro du an Khu lien hap gang thep 250.000 tan/nam tai Bac Kan, (0207DH/VL), Hai Phdng 11 Vien nghien cuu Chien luge, Chinh sach cong nghiep (2007), Chien luac phat trien Nganh Thep Viet Nam tdi nam 2010, tam nhin tdi nam 2020, Ha Noi PHU LUC 1: TONG DOANH THU HANG NAM CUA DU* AN CS ly Chi tieu Cdng suat DVT: trieu dong Nam 11Nam 10 15 nam nam nam nam nam nam nam Nam Nam 100% 40% 60% 80% 90% 90% 90%, 90% 90%, 90% 90% 90%, 18.379 7.352 11.027 14.703 16.541 16.541 16.541 16.541 16.541 16.541 16.541 16.541 5,1 5,1 5,1 5,1 5,1 5,1 5,1 5,1 5,1 5,1 5,1 5,1 93.733 37.493 56.240 74.987 84.360 84.360 84.360 84.360 84.360 84.360 84.360 84.360 230.379 92.152 138.227 184.303 207.341 207.341 207.341 207.341 207.341 207.341 207.341 207.341 7,6 7,6 7,6 7,6 7,6 7,6 7,6 7,6 7,6 7,6 7,6 7,6 1.750.880 700.352 1.050.528 1.400.704 1.575.792 1.575.792 1.575.792 1.575.792 1.575.792 1.575.792 1.575.792 1.575.792 1.844.613 737.845 1.106.768 1.475.691 1.660.152 1.660.152 1.660.152 1.660.152 1.660.152 1.660.152 1.660.152 1.660.152 thuyet San luong gang thdi Gia ban Doanh thu ban gang San luong phoi thep Gia ban Doanh thu ban phdi Tong doanh thu PHU 2: CHI PHI NGUYEN NHIEN VAT LIEU • LUC • • • DVT: ddng STT Chi tieu I Giai doan nghien tuyen quang tinh Quang tap Chi phi nghien tuyen Dien Nudc Chi phi sua chua thudng xuyen Chi phi khac Chi phi/tan quang tinh II Giai doan thieu ket Quang tinh Da voi Than coke vun Dolomit Dien Nudc Chi phi sua chua thudng xuyen Chi phi khac Chi phi/tan quang thieu ket IV Chi phi/tan £ pham DVT tinh Dinh mire tan 1,25 700.000 875.000 KWH/tan m3/tan 25,0 3,83 1.000 4.300 20.000 15.000 25.000 16.483 20.000 15.000 tan tan tan tan KWH/tan m3/tan 0,1 0,1 0,06 30 2,22 Don gia 951.483 600.000 1.500.000 1.000.000 1.000 4.300 15.000 10.000 San Iunng/nam 630.000 951.483 504.000 951.483 60.000 150.000 60.000 30.000 9.556 15.000 10.000 378.000 1.286.039 378.000 320.892 80.223 Giai doan luyen gang Quang thieu ket (80%) Quang cd (20-40mm) (20%) Than coc Tro dung Voi luyen kim Huynh thach Than antraxit Vgt lieu chiu lua tan tan tan 1,32 0,33 0,55 1.286.039 1.000.000 3.500.000 1.697.571 330.000 1.925.000 tan tan tan 0,15 0,03 0,12 600.000 1.400.000 1.000.000 90.000 42.000 120.000 40.000 40.000 Mire su dung/nam 378.000 320.892 V 10 Nude Chi phi sua ehua thuong xuyen Chi phi khae Chi phi/1 tan gang m3/tan 1,34 4.300 30.000 20.000 5.773 30.000 20.000 4.440.345 243.100 4.440.345 6.300.000 4.320.455 686.700 224.153 24.906 243.100 Giai doan luyen thep Gang long (90%) Thep phg (10%) Hop kim eae loai Silieo mangan FeMn65Sil7 Fero mangan e eao FeMn75 Fero Silie FeSi 72 Silieo eanxi Ca28Si60 Nhom Chat tro dung Voi luyen kim Huynh thaeh Dolomit ehin Xi hai eau tu Chat hoan nguyen va tang eaebon Bet Fero Silie Bet e , ebua Silie Than antraxit (than e ,m) Vat lieu ehiu lua Dien Nude Chi phi sua ehua thuong xuyen Chi phi khae Chi phi/1 tan phoi thep tan tan 0,973 0,109 Kg/tan Kg/tan Kg/tan Kg/tan Kg/tan 8,5 2,5 0,5 0,5 14.500 14.500 14.500 24.000 32.000 123.250 36.250 29.000 12.000 16.000 Kg/tan Kg/tan Kg/tan Kg/tan 80 1,2 600 1.400 1.000 12.500 48.000 5.600 6.000 15.000 Kg/tan Kg/tan Kg/tan 0,2 0,4 10 KWH/tan m3/tan 188 12.000 21.000 1.000 200.000 1.000 4.300 2.400 8.400 10.000 200.000 188.008 17.691 45.000 35.000 4,11 5.804.755 230.379 230.379 PHU LUC 3: CHI PHI NHAN CONG D VT: trieu dong Chi tieu So Ino'ng Cdng suat hoat dong Chi phi iu o'ng hang thang Nam Nam Nam Nam 4-15 90- 100% 40% 60% 80% 90% Lao dong gian tiep 442 1.225 14.700 14.700 14.700 14.700 Van phdng cong ty 158 370 4.440 4.440 4.440 4.440 Xi nghiep nguyen lieu va van tai 39 118 1.416 1.416 1.416 1.416 Nha may luyen gang 92 282 3.384 3.384 3.384 3.384 Nha may luyen thep 92 282 3.384 3.384 3.384 3.384 Xi nghiep dong luc va co dien 61 173 2.076 2.076 2.076 2.076 Lao dong true tiep 778 1.872 19.094 21.341 22.464 22.464 Xi nghiep nguyen lieu va van tai 124 310 3.162 3.534 3.720 3.720 Nha may luyen gang 265 626 6.385 7.136 7.512 7.512 Nha may luyen thep 274 649 6.615 7.393 7.782 7.782 Xi nghiep dong luc va co dien 115 288 2.933 3.278 3.450 3.450 I II PHU• LUC 4: KHAU HAO TAI SAN CO DINH • • DVT: trieu ddng STT Chi tieu Nguyen gia Thai gian khau hao Nam 1-10 Nam 11-15 Chi phi xay dung 182.310 15 12.154 12.154 Lap dat thiet bi 38.400 15 2.560 2.560 Chi phi thiet bi 401.400 10 40.140 Von kien thiet co ban khac 59.450 10 5.945 Du phdng 34.078 10 3.408 Tdng khau hao hang nam 715.638 64.207 14.714 PHU LUC 5: KE HOACH TRA NO VA LAI VAY CO DINH Thdi gian vay von nam Thdi gian an han 18 thdng Lai suat 13%/nam Von vay trung dai han 440.000 - Nam thw So du1 no1 goc dau ky Tra no goc Tra lai vay Tong cong D VT: trieu ddnUg * _ So du no goc A• a cuoi ky a Nam xay dung Nam 440.000 22.000 22.000 440.000 440.000 15.000 57.200 72.200 425.000 Nam 425.000 45.000 55.250 100.250 380.000 Nam 380.000 60.000 49.400 109.400 320.000 Nam 320.000 80.000 41.600 121.600 240.000 Nam 240.000 80.000 31.200 111.200 160.000 Nam 160.000 80.000 20.800 100.800 80.000 Nam 80.000 80.000 10.400 90.400 PHU LUC 6: TONG CHI PHI HANG NAM DVT: trieu dong N5m N3m NSm Ndm Nam NSm N2m Nam N2m Nam 10 Nihil 11-15 40% 60% 80% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% Tong chiphi 787.771 1.097.253 1.401.498 1.542.894 1.532.494 1.522.094 1.511.694 1.501.294 1.501.294 1.501.294 1.453.301 I Chi phi bien ddi 640.240 951.672 1.261.767 1.410.963 1.410.963 1.410.963 1.410.963 1.410.963 1.410.963 1.410.963 1.410.963 Chi phi NN VL SX gang long 33.653 50.480 67.307 75.720 75.720 75.720 75.720 75.720 75.720 75.720 75.720 Chi phi due gang thdi 337 505 673 757 757 757 757 757 757 757 757 Chi phi NN VL SX phoi thep 534.917 802.376 1.069.835 1.203.564 1.203.564 1.203.564 1.203.564 1.203.564 1.203.564 1.203.564 1.203.564 Chi phi dilu diezel 6.766 10.149 13.532 15.224 15.224 15.224 15.224 15.224 15.224 15.224 15.224 Chi phi nhan cdng true tiep 19.094 21.341 22.464 22.464 22.464 22.464 22.464 22.464 22.464 22.464 22.464 BHXH, BHYT, KPCD (19%) 3.628 4.055 4.268 4.268 4.268 4.268 4.268 4.268 4.268 4.268 4.268 Chi phi van tai xep dd 14.925 22.388 29.851 33.582 33.582 33.582 33.582 33.582 33.582 33.582 33.582 Chi phi xu ly mdi trudng 2.488 3.731 4.975 414 414 414 414 414 414 414 414 10 Chi phi tidp thi quang cao 1.493 2.239 2.985 3.358 3.358 3.358 3.358 3.358 3.358 3.358 3.358 11 Chi phi khac 2.985 4.478 5.970 6.716 6.716 6.716 6.716 6.716 6.716 6.716 6.716 12 LSi vay vdn luu dong 19.953 29.930 39.906 44.895 44.895 44.895 44.895 44.895 44.895 44.895 44.895 II Chi phi co dinh 147.531 145.581 139.731 131.931 121.531 111.131 100.731 90.331 90.331 90.331 42.338 Khau hao TSCD 64.207 64.207 64.207 64.207 64.207 64.207 64.207 64.207 64.207 64.207 14.714 Khau hao sua chua ldn 3.600 3.600 3.600 3.600 3.600 3.600 3.600 3.600 3.600 3.600 3.600 Chi phi nhan cdng gian tiep 14.700 14.700 14.700 14.700 14.700 14.700 14.700 14.700 14.700 14.700 14.700 BHXH, BHYT, KPCD (19%) 2.793 2.793 2.793 2.793 2.793 2.793 2.793 2.793 2.793 2.793 2.793 Chi phi quan ty, hanh chinh 3.600 3.600 3.600 3.600 3.600 3.600 3.600 3.600 3.600 3.600 3.600 - - - - - - - - - - 1.500 57.200 55.250 49.400 41.600 31.200 20.800 10.400 - 1.431 1.431 1.431 1.431 1.431 1.431 1.431 1.431 1.431 1.431 1.431 Chi tieu Cong sudt Tidn dat + phi su dung tang KCN Chi phi lai vay cd dinh Bao hiem cdng trinh (0,2%) PHU LUC 7: BANG TINH HIEU QUA DUAN DVT: trieu dong Bang ket qua san xuat kinh doanh Chi tieu Ndmgoc Naml Nam Nam Nam Niim Nam TVawi Nam Nam Nam 10 Nam 11 Nam 12 Niim 13 Niim 14 Niim 15 40% 60% 80% 90%, 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90%, 90%, 90% 90% 90% Tong doanh thu 737.845 1.106.768 1.475.691 1.660.152 1.660.152 1.660.152 1.660.152 1.660.152 1.660.152 1.660.152 1.660.152 1.660.152 1.660.152 1660.152 1.660.152 Tong chi phi 787.771 1.097.253 1.401.498 1.542.894 1.532.494 1.522.094 1.511.694 1.501294 1.501294 1.501.294 1.453.301 1.453.301 1.453301 1.453301 1.453301 (49.925) 9.515 74.193 117.258 127.658 138.058 148.458 158.858 158.858 158.858 206.851 206.851 206.851 206.851 206.851 Cong suat VdndAutu 715.638 Lpi nhuan TT ThueTNDN - - - - - - 19.328 20.784 22240 22240 22240 28.959 28.959 28.959 28.959 28.959 Lpi nhuan ST - (49.925) 9515 74.193 117258 127.658 118.730 127.674 136.618 136.618 136.618 177892 177.892 177892 177892 177892 Bang can ddi dong tien tra no1 I Ngudn trdnp 14281 73.722 138-399 181.465 191865 182.937 191881 200825 200825 200825 192.606 192.606 192X06 192.606 192X06 Dpi tire sau thud (49.925) 9.515 74.193 117.258 127.658 118.730 127.674 136.618 136.618 136.618 177.892 177.892 177.892 177.892 177.892 KHCB 64207 64207 64.207 64207 64207 64207 64207 64207 64207 64207 14.714 14.714 14.714 14.714 14714 2.Nghiavutranff 15.000 45.000 60.000 80.000 80.000 80.000 80.000 - Nggdc 15.000 45.000 60.000 80.000 80.000 80.000 80.000 - (719) 28.722 78399 101.465 111.865 102.937 111881 200.825 200825 200825 192.606 192.606 192X06 192X>06 192X106 Chenh lech dong tien Bang cac chi tieu hieu qua tai chinh Dong tien du-An (715.638) 71.481 128.972 187.799 223.065 223.065 203.737 202281 200825 200825 200825 192.606 192.606 192X>06 192X106 192X06 He sd chidt khdu 1.0000 0.8969 0.8044 0.7214 0.6470 0.5803 0.5204 0.4667 0.4186 0,3754 0,3367 0.3020 02708 02429 02178 0,1954 Dong tien CK (715.638) 64.109 103.740 135.478 144.322 129.437 106.028 94.413 84.066 75.395 67.619 58.163 52.164 46.784 41.959 37.631 Congdong (715.638) (651.529) (547.789) (412.311) (267.989) (138.553) (32.525) 61.888 145.954 221.349 288.968 347.131 399.295 446.078 488037 525.668 IRR 22,18% NPV 525.668 Thdi gian thu hoi VDT nam Thdi gian thu hdi von vay 5nAm PHU LUC 8: BANG TINH HIEU QUA DU AN KHI DOANH THU GIAM 5% r DVT: trieu • ddng O r Bang ket qua san xuat kinh doanh Chi tieu Ncimgoc Cdng suat Vonddutu Naml Nam Nam Nam Nam Nam Nam Nam Nam Nam 10 Nam 11 Niiml2 N0ml3 Nfonl4 NOmlS 40% 60% 80% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 715.638 Tong doanh thu Tong chi phi Loi nhuan IT 700.953 1.051.430 1.401.906 1.577.144 1.577.144 1.577.144 1.577.144 1.577.144 1.577.144 1.577.144 1.577.144 1.577.144 1.577.144 1.577.144 1.577.144 787.771 1.097253 1.401.498 1.542.894 1.532.494 1.522.094 1.511.694 1.501.294 1.501294 1.501294 1.453.301 1.453.301 1.453301 1.453301 1.453301 (86.818) (45.823) 408 34251 44.651 55.051 65.451 75.851 75.851 75.851 123.843 123.843 123.843 123.843 123.843 Thue TNDN - - - - - - - 9.163 10.619 10.619 10.619 17338 17.338 17.338 17338 34.676 Lpi nhuan ST - (86.818) (45.823) 408 34251 44.651 55.051 56.287 65.231 65231 65231 106.505 106.505 106.505 106.505 89.167 (22.611) 18384 64.615 98.457 108557 119257 120.494 129.438 129.438 129.438 121219 121219 121219 121219 103.881 (86.818) (45.823) 408 34.251 44.651 55.051 56.287 65.231 65.231 65231 106.505 106.505 106.505 106.505 89.167 64207 64207 64.207 64207 64207 64207 64207 64207 64.207 64207 14.714 14.714 14.714 14.714 14.714 15.000 45.000 60.000 80.000 80.000 80.000 80.000 15.000 45.000 60.000 80.000 80.000 80.000 80.000 (37.611) (26.616) 4.615 18.457 28557 39257 40.494 129.438 129.438 129.438 121219 121219 121219 121219 103.881 Bang can doi ddng tien tra no’ l.Ngudntrdnff Lpd tuc sau thue KHCB ZNghiavutrdnff Ng goc Chenh lech ddng tien Bang cac chi tieu hieu qua tai chinh Ddng tien du-an Hesochidtkhdu DongtidnCK Congddng IRR NPV Then gian thu hoi VDT (715.638) 34.589 73.634 114.015 140.057 140.057 140.057 130.894 129.438 129.438 129.438 121.219 121.219 121.219 121.219 103.881 1.0000 0.8969 0.8044 0,7214 0,6470 0.5803 0.5201 0,4667 0.4186 0.3754 0.3367 0,3020 02708 02429 02178 0.1954 (715.638) 31.022 59.228 82250 90.616 81270 72.888 61.094 54.183 48.595 43.583 36.606 32.830 29.444 26.407 20296 (715.638) (684.616) (625.389) (543.138) (452.522) (371.252) (298.364) (237.270) (183.087) (134.492) (90.910) (54.304) (21.474) 7.970 34.378 54.674 12,74% 54.674 13ndm PHU LUC 9: BANG TINH HIEU QUA DU” AN KHI CHI PHI BIEN DOI TANG 6% DVT: trieu dong Bang ket qua san xuat kinh doanh Chi tieu Namgoc Cdng suat Von dau tu Ndml Nam Nam Nam Nam Nam Nam Nam Nam Nam 10 Nam 11 Nam 12 Ntonl3 N6ml4 NUmlS 40% 60% 80% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 715.638 Tong doanh thu 737.845 1.106.768 1.475.691 1.660.152 1.660.152 1.660.152 1.660.152 1.660.152 1.660.152 1.660.152 1.660.152 1.660.152 1.660.152 1.660.152 1.660.152 Tong chi phi 826.185 1.154353 1.477.204 1.627.552 1.617.152 1.606.752 1.596.352 1.585.952 1.585.952 1.585.952 1.537.959 1.537.959 1.537.959 1.537.959 1.537.959 (88.340) (47.585) (1-513) 32.600 43.000 53.400 63.800 74.200 74.200 74.200 122.193 122.193 122.193 122.193 122.193 - - - - 7.476 8.932 10.388 10.388 10.388 17.107 17.107 17.107 17.107 34.214 (88340) (47585) (1513) 32.600 43.000 45.924 54568 63512 63512 63512 105.086 105.086 105.086 105.086 87.979 (24.133) 16.622 62.693 96.807 107207 110.131 119.075 128.019 128.019 128.019 119.800 119.800 119500 119.800 102.693 (88.340) (47.585) (1 513) 32.600 43.000 45.924 54.868 63.812 63.812 63.812 105.086 105.086 105.086 105.086 87.979 64J207 64.207 64207 64.207 64207 64207 64207 64207 64.207 64207 14.714 14.714 14.714 14.714 14.714 15.000 45.000 60.000 80.000 80.000 80.000 80.000 15.000 45.000 60.000 80.000 80.000 80.000 80.000 - (39.133) (28378) 2.693 16507 27207 30.131 39.075 128.019 128.019 128.019 119.800 119.800 119500 119.800 102.693 Lpi nhuan'IT ThudTNDN - Loi nhuan ST - Bang can ddi ddng tien tra no* Nguon tra nff Loi tire sau thug KHCB 2.Nghiavutrano Npgoc Otenh lech dbngtiln Bang cac chi tieu hieu qua tai chinh Dong tien du- fin (715.638) 33.067 71.872 112093 138.407 138.407 130.931 129.475 128.019 128.019 128.019 119.800 119.800 119.800 119.800 102.693 1,0000 0.8969 0.8044 0,7214 0,6470 0,5803 0,5204 0.4667 0,4186 0,3754 0,3367 0.3020 02708 02429 02178 0.1954 (715.638) 29.656 57.811 80.864 89.549 80.313 68.139 60.431 53.589 48.062 43.105 36.177 32.446 29.099 26.098 20.064 (715.638) (685.982) (628.171) (547.307) (457.758) (377.445) (309.307) (248.875) (195.286) (147.225) (104.120) (67.943) (35.497) (6.397) 19.701 39.765 H? so chiet khfiu Dong tien CK Congddng IRR NPV Thdi gian thu hdi VDT 12,40% 39.765 14 nam PHU LVC 10: BANG TINH HIEU QUA DI/ AN THEO QUAN DIEM NGUCH VIET He so chiet khau: _ _ HSCK danh nghTa (r) 11,5% ty le lam phat (h) 5% HSCK there tS (i) 6% 10.1 Trudng hop: khdng cd yeu to lam phat Chi tieu NSm goc Ngudn vdndSutu 965.390 Von co dinh 769.770 Vonlirudpng 195.620 Tdng doanh thu NSm Nam Nam Nam Nam Nam NSm Nam NSm NSm 10 Niim 11 Nam 12 Nam 13 NSm 14 NSm 15 737.845 1.106.768 1.475.691 1.660.152 1.660.152 1.660.152 1.660.152 1.660.152 1.660.152 1.660.152 1.660.152 1.660.152 1.660.152 1.660.152 1.660.152 Thu khac 460.145 Thanh lyTSCD 20.000 Thu hdi VLD 440.145 Twig chi phi 787.771 1.097253 1.401.498 1.542.894 1.532.494 1.522.094 1.511.694 1.501294 1.501294 1.501294 1.453301 1.453301 1.453301 1.453301 1.453301 4.LNTT (49.925) 9.515 74.193 117.258 127.658 138.058 148.458 158.858 158.858 158.858 206.851 206.851 206.851 206.851 206.851 - - - - - 19.328 20.784 22.240 22.240 22.240 28.959 28.959 28.959 28.959 28.959 127.658 118.730 127.674 136.618 136.618 136.618 177.892 177.892 177.892 177.892 177.892 5.ThudTNDN 6.LNST (49.925) VDTbdsung 8.Ddngtiendtran HSCKthyctd 9.515 74.193 117258 97.810 97.810 48.905 (965.390) 71.481 31.162 89.989 174.160 223.065 203.737 202281 200.825 200.825 200.825 192606 192.606 192.606 192.606 652.751 1,0000 0,9434 0,8900 0,8396 0,7921 0,7473 0,7050 0,6651 0,6274 0^5919 0,5584 0.5268 0,4970 0.4688 0,4423 0.4173 (965.390) 67.435 27.734 75.557 137.951 166.687 143.626 134.528 126.000 118.868 112.140 101.462 95.719 90.301 85.190 272.370 (965390) (897.955) (870221) (794.664) (656.713) (490.026) (346.400) (211.871) (85.871) 32997 145.136 246.598 342.318 432.619 517.808 790.179 10 Dong tien Chidt khdu ll.Cdngddng 12 Cac chi tieu hieu qua IRR 14,06% M1RR 14,53% NPV 790.179 PI AAP 1,82 121.628 Thdi gian thu hdi 9n3m VDT Thdi gian thu hdivdn vay 5n2m 10.2 Trwo'ng hop: co yeu to lam phat (5%) Chi tieu Chi so lamphat Nam goc Nam Nam Nam Nam 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 774.738 1.220.212 1.708.2% 2.017.925 Nguon von dau tu 965.390 Von co dinh 769.770 Von luu dqng 195.620 Nam 13 ■ N3m6 Nam Nam Nam Nam 10 Nam 11 Nam 12 Nam 13 Nam 14 Nam 15 13 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.8 1.9 20 2.1 2.224.762 2.336.001 2.575.441 2.704.213 2.839.423 2.981.395 3.130.464 3.286.987 3.451.337 2.452.80 2.118.82 Tong doanh thu 1 460.145 Thu khac 20.000 Thanh ly TSCD 440.145 Thu hoi VLD 1.955.89 827.159 Tong chi phi 1.209.721 1.622.409 2.218.09 2.039751 1.875.397 2.127.105 4.LNTT Thug TNDN 6.LNST 9.HSCKDN 2.445.450 2.485.638 2.609.920 2.740.416 2.877.437 3.021.309 (52.422) 10.491 85.887 142.528 162.928 185.011 208.895 234.706 246.441 258.763 353.785 371.475 390.048 409.551 430.028 - - - - - 19.328 20.784 22240 22240 22.240 28.959 28.959 28.959 28.959 28.959 (52.422) 10.491 85.887 142.528 162.928 165.683 188.111 212.466 224.201 236.523 324.826 342.515 361.089 380.592 401.069 97.810 97.810 48.905 VDTbossung Ddng tien du an 2.329.000 (965.390) 68.985 32.137 101.684 199.130 258.334 250.690 262.718 276.672 288.408 300.730 339.540 339.540 339.540 339.540 875.928 1.0000 0(8969 0(8044 0(7214 0(6470 0(5803 0(5204 0(4667 0(4186 0.3754 0(3367 0(3020 02708 0(2429 0(2178 0(1954 (965.390) 61.870 25.850 73.355 129.030 149.902 130.463 122.621 115.816 108.276 101.258 102.534 91.959 82.474 73.968 •171.138 (965.390) (903.520) (877.670) (804.315) (675.285) (394.920) (272.299) (156.483) (48207) 53.051 155.584 247.543 330.017 403.985 575.123 10 Dong tien Chigt khau (525.383 11 Cong dong ) 12 Cac chi tieu hieu qua IRR 18,21% MIRR 16,65% NPV 575.123 PI 1,60 AAP 212.432 Thai gian thu hoi VDT lOn3m Thdi gian thu hOi vOn nSm vay PHU LUC 11: PHAN TICH DO NHAY CUA DI/ AN THEO QUAN DIEM NGU (JI VIET 11.1 Phan tich nhay tong the "" ~^CP bien doi tang Doanh thu giani 0% \ IRR 0% 5% 7% 22% 13% 8,2% 5% NPV IRR 525.668 54.674 (135.484) 7% NPV 14% 2% -5% IRR 121.568 (347.779) (535.518) 4% -4%