TABLE OF CONTENTS MACRO ANALYSIS 1 1 1 Population 1 1 2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) 1 1 3 Technology 1 1 4 Culture 1 1 5 Consumer Price Index (CPI) 2 INDUSTRY ANALYSIS 2 2 1 Challenge 2 2 1 1Competit[.]
TABLE OF CONTENTS MACRO ANALYSIS 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 Population Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Technology _ Culture _ Consumer Price Index (CPI) INDUSTRY ANALYSIS _ 2.1 Challenge _ 2.1.1Competition in the industry 2.1.2 Potential of new entrants into the industry _ 2.1.3 The bargaining power of suppliers 2.1.4 The bargaining power of buyers 2.2 Opportunity _ 2.2.1 The potential of the retail market 2.2.2 Change in customer needs 2.2.3 Apply technology _ FINANCIAL STATEMENTS ANALYSIS _ 3.1 Company Overview _ 3.2 Income Statement Analysis _ 3.2.1 3.2.2 3.2.3 3.2.5 Profit Structure Analysis Horizontal Analysis Vertical Analysis Detailed report _ 3.3 Balance Sheet Analysis 3.3.1 Capital and Assets Structure _ 3.3.2 Capital and Capital Use Fluctuations 3.3.3 Working capital _ 3.4 Cash Flow Statement Analysis _ 3.5 Financial Ratio Analysis 3.5.1 Solvency Ratios _ 3.5.2Profitability Ratios 10 3.5.3 Market Value Ratios 10 RECOMMENDATION _ 11 MACRO ANALYSIS 1.1 Population 1.2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) In Vietnam, the working and consuming group that 8.00% range in age from 15 to 64 occupies roughly 69.3% of 7.00% the total population In particular, the share of females 6.00% accounts for 51%, and this is the group that has a high 5.00% jewelry consumption Furthermore, according to Mckinsey, middle-class incomes are rising rapidly with a CAGR expected to reach 9.2% during 2018 - 2023 This also contributes to boosting the demand for purchasing 6.81% 7.08% 7.02% 4.00% 3.00% 2.91% 2.00% 1.00% 0.00% 2017 luxury products, especially those of reputable brands 2018 2019 2020 In a recent report of the World Gold Council (WGC), gold Figure 1: Vietnams's GDP growth rate 2017 - 2020 jewelry consumption of Vietnam in the second quarter 2018 is the highest GDP growth year from 2008 to the of 2021 was 3.5 tons, which increased by 120% present day, which was at 7.08% In 2019, in the compared to the same period last year This stems from context of the slow growth of the global economy, the growing demand for fashion, beauty, storage, and Vietnam’s GDP still increased to 7.02% In 2020, due to jewelry consumption among young people Besides, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, GDP declined by Vietnam is regarded as one of the top 10 gold- 2.9% compared to last year However, Vietnam's consuming markets in the world, thereby showing that economy shown considerable resilience since it is one of the gold jewelry market still has a lot of space for the few countries whose economic growth is not development It offers the opportunity for businesses to negative expand their business network, especially in the context The good GDP growth rate and the increase in people's that the market share of retail stores currently incomes boost demand for branded jewelry and help the dominates the market jewelry industry, as well as PNJ acquire a better opportunity for development 1.3 Technology Technological advances have created certain changes in the entire economy, especially during the Covid-19 pandemic The pandemic leads to the closure of jewelry stores and makes consumers and businesses quickly adapt to online shopping In the past years, PNJ has focused on introducing its products and connecting with customers through advertising on Facebook PNJ also certifies that the online sales channels play a vital role in boosting sales in the context that traditional ones are facing many troubles 1.4 Culture There are cultural differences between regions, so businesses need to comprehend the customer segments to distribute products efficiently Northern residents often prefer gold jewelry by volume, they like products made entirely of gold with simple designs more than mixed with gems and diamonds Furthermore, Vietnamese also have the habit of buying gold during holidays like the festival of the God of Wealth to pray for luck and fortune This is the reason why gold jewelry has a sudden high consumption on these occasions 1.5 Consumer Price Index (CPI) 4.19 3.85 3.66 According to data from General Statistics Office, CPI in 3.29 3.57 3.44 2.64 2.5 2019 increased by 2.79% compared to 2018 In 2020, CPI 1.82 1.38 1.47 in 2020 increased by 3.23% compared to 2019 Particularly, CPI in the first months increased dramatically due to the impact of African swine fever However, it was controlled and witnessed a gradual fall in the remaining period Figure 1: Vietnam's CPI growth rate between 2018 and 2020 Year Growth rate (%) compared to 2019 Particularly, CPI in the first months increased 2018 3.54 dramatically due to the impact of African swine fever However, it was 2019 2.79 controlled and witnessed a gradual fall in the remaining period 2020 3.23 In 2021, CPI in the first months increased by 1.82% compared to the 6T/2021 1.47 same period in 2020, and it was the lowest increase since 2016 This can 9T/2021 1.82 According to data from General Statistics Office, CPI in 2019 increased by 2.79% compared to 2018 In 2020, CPI in 2020 increased by 3.23% be attributed to a host of reasons: rent prices decreased during the period of social distancing; tuition fees were exempt or reduced in some localities; food prices fell due to guaranteed supply; the plan to reduce electricity price from the Government INDUSTRY ANALYSIS 2.1 Challenge 2.1.1Competition in the industry Over the past years, Vietnam’s the gold jewelry market has witnessed a strong growth, about 17 tons of gold jewelry were consumed in 2018 Along with the decline in demand for gold bars, it is considered to still have a lot of space for growth Although the consumption is relatively high, the gold jewelry market in Vietnam is fragmented when traditional stores occupy roughly 73% In contrast, big companies with a nationwide store system only account for 27% PNJ is currently the leading company in the retail market with 7% and 20% of other reputable brands such as Doji, SJC, Figure3 The Jewelry Market Share in Vietnam 2019 According to the report of Ho Chi Minh City Securities Corporation (HSC), PNJ seems to have no rival in the branded jewelry market When it comes to the number of retail stores and brand popularity, PNJ beats all others in the same industry In 2019, PNJ owns 346 stores nationwide, which is superior to its competitors: DOJI (200 stores), SJC (200 stores) Figure4 ROE of PNJ, DOJI, SJC between 2018 and 2020 In terms of business efficiency, PNJ continues to be far ahead of its competitors PNJ's ROE is always in the range of 25-26%, while DOJI and SJC only maintain the upper and lower threshold of 5% This stems from the difference in product structure There are two major segments in the gold business: gold bars and gold jewelry Although the gold bar business yields huge revenue, the profit is insignificant PNJ is a typical case in shifting towards gold jewelry segments, these products have higher profit margins than gold bars Thanks to focusing on this segment, the company's business results have improved significantly 2.1.2 Potential of new entrants into the industry Besides the big names, the jewelry market is now saturated with the emergence of smaller brands such as Shimmer and FloralPunk Their products are mostly outsourced or imported from China or Thailand Obviously, PNJ has advantages in all aspects, from its extensive branch network, modern production lines to a team of skilled designers and workers who annually launch more than million products However, smaller brands are more competitive on price This is also an aspect that PNJ needs to consider Furthermore, PNJ currently does not have to compete with any foreign brands 2.1.3 The bargaining power of suppliers Due to the state bank's regulations restricting the import of gold bars, the raw gold source mostly comes from direct purchasing activities from current customers, while other materials such as gold, silver, gems, and diamonds are imported from abroad Therefore, the pressure from the supplier is great 2.1.4 The bargaining power of buyers One of the aspects that affect the bargaining power of buyers is their dependence on a particular supplier Over 30 years of operation, PNJ has received the trust of customers about product quality All jewelry sold out has a red invoice, clearly stating the gold content, gold age, warranty and redemption conditions As for gemstones, it is always accompanied by a certificate from PNJ inspection company, which is a globally valid certificate Thanks to customer good service policy, PNJ has created a firm belief for customers about the age of gold as well as the quality of precious stones 2.2 Opportunity 2.2.1 The potential of the retail market According to the Deloitte report, Vietnam is regarded as phenomenal growth in the retail industry in Southeast Asia The Ministry of Industry and Trade data also shows that retail sales of consumer goods occupy 79% of total retail sales of consumer goods and services in 2020 Besides, Vietnam is ranked 6th in 30 countries that have potential and investment attractiveness in the global retail sector in the past few years This is an opportunity for jewelry companies to expand their retail systems, optimally distribute products to consumers and promote the brand's popularity 2.2.2 Change in customer needs Previously, gold jewelry was mostly traditionally handcrafted, but now, most companies have organized production based on industrial models and used modern machines to generate high-quality products with diverse designs It is not difficult to explain the development of gold jewelry because people's living standards are increasingly improved along with the growing demand for beauty in recent years Therefore, if companies want to reach many customer segments, they need to focus on product innovation to be in line with the market’s trends and tastes 2.2.3 Apply technology The COVID-19 pandemic has pushed jewelry companies into digital transformation Many businesses have taken advantage of technology in approaching customers to exploit and manage data, and PNJ is no exception PNJ has transformed into the multi-channel retail system and successfully operated the ERP system - SAP 4HANA Applicating these technologies helps PNJ make the most of its resources In addition, they also apply AI to the production process, bringing the AI camera system into stores to analyze customer behavior In 2020, PNJ is a typical case of the application of Conversational Marketing that helps PNJ's ROI increase by 153 times FINANCIAL STATEMENTS ANALYSIS 3.1 Company Overview Business name Phu Nhuan Jewelry Joint Stock Company Short name PNJ.,JSC Address 170E Phan Dang Luu – Ward – Phu Nhuan District – Ho Chi Minh City Tax code 0300521758 Stockcode PNJ Type of business Joint stock company Charter capital 2,252,935,850,000 VND Main business sectors - Producing and trading in gold, silver, precious stones, fashion accessories, souvenirs Trading in watches and doing gold bars business - Inspection service of diamonds, precious stones, precious metals.- Real estate business Legal representative Ms Cao Thi Ngoc Dung – Chairman of the Board of Directors of PNJ 3.2 Income Statement Analysis 3.2.1 Profit Structure Analysis The part of EBIT Net operating profit/( loss) Profit from financial activities (excluding loan interest) Other profit/(loss) EBIT Ratio 2018 2019 2020 1.221.22 1.586.80 13.644 Compare 2019/2 2020/201 018 Compare percent 2019/2 2020/2 018 019 2018 2019 2020 1.440.44 98,75% 101,77% 100,35% 365.580 (146.360) 3,02% -1,42% (27.880) (1.646) 1,10% -1,79% -0,11% -41.524 26.234 -2,89% 1,67% 1.855 354 (3.327) 0,15% 0,02% -0,23% -1.501 (3.681) -0,13% -0,25% 1.236.72 1.559.27 1.435.47 100% 100% 100% 322.555 (123.807) Table1 Profit structure Analysis 2018 had the most appropriate profit structure because items had no negative value 2019 had the highest main operating profit due to the expansion of the retail store system However, this figure witnessed a decline in 2020 because the impact of the COVID-19 forced the closure of PNJ’s stores, leading to a fall of 7.94% in EBIT 3.2.2 Horizontal Analysis Net revenue from sales of goods and rendering of services witnessed growth in years In particular, it increased by 11.55% in 2019 and 20.89% in 2020, thereby showing that PNJ's business activities grew positively, and the company should maintain this growth rate in the next years Figure5 Profit Structure of PNJ 2018-2020 rose by 26.08% in 2019 because operating profit also witnessed a similar trend to EBT In rose by 29.84% However, profit from financial activities particular, it increased by 26.77% in 2019 and and other profits fell by 41,524 million and 1,501 million decreased by 9.33% in 2020 respectively In 2020, operating profit fell by 146,360 million In summary, 2019 has the strongest profit growth and other profits fell by 3,681 million, leading to a fall of 7.94% in EBIT had fluctuations over this period It increased by rate from 2018 to 2020 In 2020, due to the impact of the pandemic, the growth rate diminished, especially a sharp decrease in operating profit In contrast, the increase in profit from financial 23.40% in 2019 before experiencing a decrease of roughly activities (not including loan interest) and financial 10.12% in 2020 The reason why EBT in 2020 dropped activities helped it to be improved partially more sharply than EBIT in 2020 was that interest expense in 2020 increased by 20.88% compared to in 2019 3.2.3 Vertical Analysis EBT on net sales was 8.76% in 2018 then increased by 0.93% in 2019 This was mainly because the proportion of EBIT increased by 1,2% and the proportion of interest expenses fell by 0,27% In contrast, EBIT on net sales fell by 2,31% in 2020, leading to a fall of 2.49% EBT on net sales Figure6 Ratio profits on Revenue 2018-2020 EBIT on net sales in 2018 was 9,22%, then it increased by 1,2% in 2019 due to the improvement in cost efficiency from operating profit In 2020, it fell by 2.49% due to the proportion of operating profit falling by 2.64% compared to 2019, there by showing that the cost efficiency of operating profit reduced significantly ROS increased by 0.72% in 2019 The improvement in cost efficiency from operating activities caused ROS to increase by 1,5% However, the decrease in profit from financial activities and other profits, as well as the increase in interest expense and corporate income tax expense caused ROS to fall by 0.78% (0.29% + 0.01% + 0.27% + 0.21%) After that, ROS saw a fall of 2.03% in 2020 mainly due to the decrease in the cost efficiency from operating activities and in other profits 3.2.5 Detailed report PROPORTION TO NET SALES ITEMS Net revenues from sales and services rendered Cost of goods sold and services rendered Gross profit from sales and services rendered Selling expenses General administration expenses Net profit from operating activity INFLUENCE LEVEL Net Revenue 2018 2019 2020 100% 100% 100% 80,23% 78,44% 19,77% Effect of saving costs 2019/2018 2020/2019 2019/ 2018 2020/ 2019 81,91% 1.242.619 2.451.117 (267.580) 627.542 21,56% 18,09% 306.193 673.636 267.580 (627.542) 8,34% 8,22% 7,38% 129.201 256.973 (17.676) (152.253) 2,32% 2,73% 2,74% 35.971 85.249 60.698 2.484 9,11% 11,83% 7,96% 141.021 331.413 224.558 (477.772) Table2 Detail Reports The rate of cost of goods sold on revenue reached 78.44% and declined by 1.79% in 2019, thereby showing that PNJ saved direct cost successfully But in 2020, this rate reached 81.91% meaning that PNJ saved direct costs inefficiently, leading to the high cost of goods sold, as well as gross profit on revenue fell by 3.47% Selling expenses in 2020 was 7.38% It fell by 0.84% compared to in 2019 and fell by 0.96% compared to in 2018 This helped net profit from operating activity increased by 152.253 million In 2020, business administration expenses are 2.74%, this figure is 2.73% in 2019 and 2.32% in 2018 This reduces profit from core business by 2,484 million VND Net revenue in 2020 was 18.086.066 VND, total general administrative expenses increased by 2.484 million compared with 2019, leading to a reduction of 2.484 million in profit from operating activity 3.3 Balance Sheet Analysis 3.3.1 Capital and Assets Structure 3.3.2 Capital and Capital Use Fluctuations CURRENT ASSETS In 2018, PNJ raised capital mainly from current debt 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% (37.23%), contributed capital and investment and development funds (35.63%) to finance inventory and fixed assets In 2019, the firm generally still raise capital from these two main sources with the proportion being 36.38% Cash Short-term receivales 31/12/2018 Inventory Other current assets 31/12/2019 31/12/2019 and 36.77% respectively Moreover, assets witnessed an upward trend due to the increase in current receivables and fixed assets, which were 43.77% and 10.63% respectively However, inventory decreased by 42.72% compared to the Figure7 Current Assets NON-CURRENT ASSETS last year In 2020, PNJ raised capital from cash (12.37%) but contributed capital and investment and development funds decreased significantly to 8.88% In addition, PNJ paid 15.00% 10.00% 5.00% 0.00% current debt (54.77%), current accounts payable to suppliers (12.9%), and long-term debt (0.31%) Furthermore, assets had a descending trend, stemming from items that were short-term receivables, inventory, and 31/12/2018 31/12/2019 31/12/2019 fixed assets Figure8 Long-term Assets There was a slight fall in current assets, and inventory occupied the majority In particular, inventory decreased by 6.55% in 2019, then decreased by 0.75% in 2020 However, there was an upward trend in longterm assets Particularly, fixed assets, long-term financial investments, and other long-term assets increased while work in progress decreased, and receivables remained stable Current capital also saw a fall and to be in line with the downward trend in current assets Additionally, longterm capital decreased due to the reduction of longterm debt, but equity increased noticeably In summary, PNJ's asset structure and capital from 2019 to 2020 had no significant fluctuations and tended to occur positively In conclusion, PNJ efficiently took advantage of sources of capital from current debt and contributed capital and investment and development funds The result shows that undistributed profit after tax increased constantly from 2018 to 2020 3.3.3 Working capital ACCOUNT Net Working capital Working capital Net Working capital/Working capital Ratio of current capital financed working capital COMPARISON 2019 2020 609.424 414.216 1.273.711 -231.737 31/12/2018 31/12/2019 31/12/2020 2.640.264 4.210.747 3.249.688 5.484.458 3.663.904 5.252.721 62,70% 59,25% 69,75% -3,45% 10,50% 241,01% 254,26% 245,41% 13,25% -8,85% 51,05% 48,63% 56,59% -2,42% 7,96% Net Working capital/Current assets Table 3: Working Capital In 2018, net working capital which financed current assets was 51.05% In 2019, it declined marginally by 2.42% then rose by 7.96% in 2020 In general, PNJ had excessive long-term capital to finance current assets, thereby showing that PNJ had a balanced financial structure and pursued a prudent and safe financing trend, low payment risk 3.4 Cash Flow Statement Analysis PNJ's net cash flow from investment activities was negative in all years, 2018, 2019 and 2020 This fluctuation was due to the fact that in 2018 and 2019 PNJ increased investment in technology including the new ERP system and improved data analysis capabilities In the context of difficulties caused by the epidemic in 2020, PNJ still has to increase investment in both distribution system and production capacity Figure9 Cash flows of PNJ 2018-2020 Because of the large spending needs for investment activities and large inventories Therefore, the company decided to increase debt, leading to a continuous increase in interest expenses over the years from 2018-2020 In 2020, PNJ's bank interest expense was VND 132,606,524,473, accounting for about 10.18% of pre-tax profit PNJ's net cash flow from financial activities in 2018 and 2019 was positive because the company earned more money from issuing shares and receiving capital contributed from owners with external funding In 2020, the net cash flow from financial activities is negative due to the decrease in cash from stock issuance, owner's contributed capital from outside finance, increase in loan principal payment and dividend payment Figure10 Net cash flows from financing activities PNJ's EAT/EBT in the past years has not changed too much and is always positive In which, the EAT/NOCF of enterprises in 2018-2019 saw negative fluctuations However, in 2020 it increased sharply and increased to a positive level This difference is because NOCF of 2018 and 2019 is negative while EBT and EAT of enterprises are always positive Figure11 The differences between EAT/EBT and EAT/NOCF 3.5 Financial Ratio Analysis 3.5.1 Solvency Ratios Figure12 Solvency Ratios Current Ratio PNJ’s current ratios from 2018 to 2020 were greater than 1, which were at 2.04, 1.95, 2.03 respectively, these mean that: + Current assets was capable of paying current liabilities + Net working capital > 0: the company had excessive long-term capital to finance current assets, thereby showing that PNJ had a balanced financial structure and pursued a prudent and safe financing trend, low payment risk SJC’s current ratios were times higher compared to PNJ However, maintaining this figure too high is not a good sign because it shows that business uses assets inefficiently and wastes capital, leading to unnecessary profit reduction Thus, in comparison with competitors, PNJ ensured solvency but still used assets efficiently Inventory Turnover Overall, PNJ's inventory turnover ratios remained stable during years, which were at 2.62, 2.25, and 2.66 respectively, but quite low compared to competitors Additionally, most of PNJ's inventory is mainly gold, silver, and gemstone products, so there is no risk of decline in quality, high liquidity and only affected by the risk of price fluctuations in the market 3.5.2Profitability Ratios Figure13 Profitability Ratios PNJ's ROE remained stable during years In particular, ROE in 2019 rose by 0.45% compared to 2018, ROE in 2020 fell by 5.68% compared to 2019 PNJ’s ROE was much higher than competitor, which was in the range of 20-26%, thereby proving that the company used equity more efficiently compared to others PNJ's ROA witnessed a marginal reduction Specifically, ROA in 2019 decreased by 1.03% compared to 2018, ROA in 2020 decreased by 1.27% compared to 2019 However, PNJ's ROA was still higher than SJC, thereby showing that its investment efficiency was better than competitor In general, PNJ's ROI witnessed a slight decline during years, which were at 22.81%, 21.92% and 18.02% respectively And this figure was much higher than SJC, which showed that PNJ utilized capital more efficiently compared to other businesses in the same industry 3.5.3 Market Value Ratios Earning per share decreased due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic PNJ had to temporarily close 274 stores to implement social distancing, leading to a decline in earning EPS from 2018 to 2020 were 6.48, 4.9, and 4.31 respectively However, PNJ’s P/E saw a gradual increase over this period In particular, P/E in 2019 increased by 3.17% compared to 2018, P/E in 2020 increased by 1.24% compared to 2019 PNJ’s P/E was quite high, thereby demonstrating that the company had a medium growth rate and paid a high dividend, and this was also beneficial for investors Figure14 PNJ’s market value ratios between 2019 and 2020 RECOMMENDATION From the point of view of the investor, we decided to buy shares of PNJ for the following reasons: PNJ is the leading company in the jewelry industry with many superior advantages Vietnam is one of the 30 most attractive retail markets in the world This brings many advantages to jewelry companies in expanding retail stores, distributing products optimally to consumers, and promoting brands As for PNJ, the company has constantly promoted the process of repositioning its business strategy to shift from production and sales to a professional retail model Currently, PNJ occupies the majority of the total market share compared to other reputable brands and is far ahead of competitors in terms of the number of stores Regardless of troubles from the COVID-19 pandemic, PNJ successfully takes advantage of social media to introduce its products and connect with customers through advertising on Facebook As is evidenced, there was a growth of 20.89% in net sales in 2020, EAT increased by 26.77% in 2019 and decreased slightly by 9.33% in 2020 Maintaining stable and reasonable asset and capital structures Inventories account for the largest proportion of PNJ's asset structure (roughly70%) from 2018 to 2020 The low inventory turnover ratio is in line with PNJ's market share expansion strategy Moreover, most of PNJ's inventories are mainly gold, silver, and gemstone products, so there is no risk of a decline in quality along with high liquidity Therefore, the company has almost no payment risk Besides, in general, PNJ has enough long-term capital to finance both current assets and long-term assets Although the cost of capital is high, business operations are ensured Prudent financing trends and high profitability PNJ’s ROE was much higher than competitor, which was in the range of 20-26%, thereby proving that the company used equity more efficiently compared to others PNJ’s current ratios from 2018 to 2020 were greater than This means that net working capital is greater than 0, which shows that PNJ has a balanced financial structure and follows prudent financing trends, low payment risk References: Hồng Kiều (2020) Bốn ơng lớn ngành vàng PNJ, Doji, SJC Bảo Tín Minh Châu kinh doanh Retrieved from https://vietnambiz.vn/4-ong-lon-nganh-vang-pnj-doji-sjc-va-bao-tin-minh-chau-dang-kinhdoanh-ra-sao-20200920170856344.htm Nha Trang (2021) Chiến lược giúp PNJ thắng lớn năm 2020 Retrieved from 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