Tác động của dich cúm covid 19 tới các nền kinh tế đông bắc á và hàm ý chính sách đối với việt nam

KINH T E - X A HOI TAG DONG GUA DjGH GUM GOVID-19 TOTI GAG NEN KINH TE DONG BAG A VA HAM Y GHiNH SAGH DO! VCTI VIET NAM timmstatHTorn tat: Ldn ddu tien sau 100 ndm, Ihi gidi dimg trudc dgi dich todn edu, tdc dgng sdu rgng tdi hdu het cdc qudc gia tren thi giai, nhdt la khu virc Ddng Bde A bao gdm Trung Qudc, Nhdl Bdn vd Hdn Qudc Cho tai nay, ca bdn cdc nude Ddng Bde A da khdng chi dugc dich Covid-19, song cdc yeu Id nhu su suy gidm kinh ti Trung Qudc, siic edu thi gidi yeu, dgi dich lay Ign tren phgm vi todn edu Igo rg nhiiu thdeh thtrc vd riii ro cd vi tdng trudng ciig tirng nin kinh te vg hgi nhgp khu vuc Tinh hinh ndy ddt mgt sd ham y chinh sdch ddl vai Viet Nam tit gdc ddi ngogi di gdp phdn triin khai thdnh cdng chinh sdch img phd vdi nhimg dien bien kinh te todn edu vdphuc hdi nen kinh ti Tir khda: Ddng A, Kinh td, Hdi nhap, Covid-19 J rong vdng han 100 ndm qua, lan ddu tidn thd gidi dirng trade dgi dich biing phat toan cau, tdc ddng sau rgng tdi kinh td, chinh ttj, xa hgi cua hau hdt cdc qudc gia ttdn thd gidi Dien dan kinh td thd gidi (WEF) nhan dinh tde ddng cua cu sdc Covid-19 hidn cdn nghidm trgng hgn ca khung hgang tdi chinh toan edu 2008' Khu vyc Ddng Bac A, bao gdm cac ndn kinh td Idn nhu Tmng Qudc, Nhat Ban, Han Qudc, mdt ttong nhthig cue tang trudng quan trgng cila the gidi, dang bj tac dgng bdi dai djch Covid-19 ttdn nhidu linh vyc Mac dii djch Covid-19 da dugc eg ban khdng chd tai Tmng Qudc vao khoang gitla thang 3/2020, Td chiic Y te thd gidi (WHO) 11/3/2020 tuydn bd ' Nghien cihi vien chinh, Vien Nghien ciju chien luoc ngoai giao Hoc vien Ngoai giao ' WEF (2020), "The IMF explains the economic lessons from China's fight against coronavirus", https://ww\v weforum.org/agentla/2020/03/imf-economic-lessonsfTom-TrungQu6c-fight-against-coronavirus/ NGHIEN edu DONG BflC fl S6 4(230) 4-2020 Covid-19 da biing nd thdnh djch bpnh todn cau Theo sd lieu cua WorldOmeters, tinh ddn 31/3/2020, tdng sd ea nhidm bpnh trdn todn thd gidi Id 801.061, lan ttdn 199 qudc gia vd vting lanh thd, lam chdt 38.749 ngudi, tai Tmng Qudc sd ngudi bj nhidm Id 81.518 ngudi, sd ngudi ttr vong Id 3.305 ngudi; tai Nhat Ban, sd ngudi bi nhidm la 1.953 ngudi, sd ngudi tii vong la 56 ngudi; tai Han Qudc, sd ngudi bj nhidm la 9.786 ngudi, sd ngucri ttr vong la 162 ngudi.^ Tinh hinh dich benh vdi chiing vims mdi lay lan nhanh da tde ddng mgnh me tdi hau hdt eae ndn kinh td Ddng Bac A I Tac dpng tir djch Covid-19 tdi kinh te Trung Quoc, Nhat Ban va Han Quoc Tgi Trung Qudc, tinh hinh benh djch da tao dp lyc ldn ldn he thdng y td, lam giam thu nhap va sire san xuat ciia loan bg ndn - Worldometter (2020), "Covitl-19 Coronavirus PantJemic", https://www.worldometers.info/coronavinis/ 27 ,\gliieii kinh Id Trong Ihang va Ihang 2020 >an Iugng cdng nghipp tgi Trung Qudc da giam 13.5°c ban Id giam 20° o dau lu vdo \a> dyng \a ma\ mdc giam 24.5°b ty' lc that nghipp tdng ldn 6.2% Nhieu dy bdo cho rdng kinh td Trang Qudc qu\ L2020 se suy gidm theo dd Nomura Holding du bdo suy gidm -2.5° 0- Bloomberg dy bao -3% Standard Chartered dy bdo -1.5% ngdn hang AN/ dy bdo -2%' Ddy la ldn dau lidn kinh td Tmng Qudc cd mpt quy tdng ttudng dm ke tit ndm 1992 Trong Ihdng 2020 lupng bdn d td Igi Trung Qudc giam 80°'o , xTidt khau thdng \a thdng 2020 giam 17.2% Kinh tii Tmng Qudc ndm 2020 cd khd ndng chi tdng imdng khoang 5.4»4' Mpi sd ddnh gid nhu cua EIU co nhan djnh khd tidu cue theo dd dy bdo tdng Iradng GDP cua Trung Qudc ndm 2020 chi dgt 1%' Trong dd, tinh Hd Bde \a cdc khu vuc ldn can bj anh hudng ndng ne nhdt Tinh Hd Bde cd vj tti quan ttpng ttong Vanh dai kinh td sdng Duong Tir va Vanh dai kinh Id dudng sdt Bde Kinh Qudng Chau Do dd, Hd Bac ed vai ttd quan trpng Id yung tdm trang chuyen giao thdng ^ Manuel Baigom' (2020) "China Economy Seen in Deeper Conlraction on Factory Drop" Bloomberg, https:// MAl w.bloomberg.com/news/articles'2020-03-01 /chinacconomy-seen-headed-for-deeper-contraction-on-factorydrop * "China Car Sales Drop Record 80% as Virus Empties ShowTtjoms Bloomberg News, https www.bloomt)erg comnewVarticIei'2020-O3-O4/china-car-sales-drop-arecord-80-as-vinis-adds-to-industi>'-woes * Finbarr Bcrmingham (2020), "Coronavirus: China's exports and imports plummet in January and February, South China Morning Post", htlps://www.scmp.com' economy china-economy anicle/3074060/coronavinischinas-exports-and-impons-plummeted-januaiy-and *Toniasz Brodziciti (2020) "Impact of COVlD-19 on the Chinese and global economy", https'./'ihsmaritit.com/ rcseitfch-anal«is'impacl-of-covidI9-on-the-chinese-andelobal-economy.html EIU (2020X -COVlD-19 to send almost all G20 countries into a recession" https;//www.eiu.coin/n/covid19-to-setld-alinost-a]I-g20-countries-into-a-recession/ 2S c^" ciia Tmng ldn nhdt khu vyc m'=".T^™"^ ^< nghia Qudc va la khu cdng nghipp I™- • j^j^n quan ttpng ddi vdi chien l"?"^ ^ ^.j, su midn Tmng Bdn cgnh h n h u a s ^ ^ ^ ^ sut gian, irongcac nganh d ch | ^^ cua Trang Qudc cimg rat kho de bu F dich benh kdt thuc V i d y s y mat mat domih thu phdng ve dip Tdt am hch ehi d^t ^ tridu I'SD nam 2020 so vd, I. - t> USD ndm 019 la khdng thd bu ddp Hofingn,_ cuu Giam ddc qudc gia Ngan hdng Thd gia tat Trong Qudc nhdn djnh djch vu vd tieu dung hidn ddng gdp ban 50% vao GDP cua Trung Qudc Tmdng nhdm chuydn gia kinh td tai Tap dodn JinDong, Thdm Kidn Quang, cho rdng sy bii ddp ddi vdi mgt sd doanh nghiep bdn Id vd djch vy tieu dting la hau nhu bat khd thi Vi du, sd khdng thd lap lai nhtmg dgt tidu dimg nhu dip ndm mdi ddi vdi ngdnh du lieh Dd hd ttg ndn kinh td, Trang Quoe da cdng bd cdt giam thue va cac khoan dau tu mdi quy md khoang 6% GDP dd thue day tdng tmdng Tuy nhidn, dd dat mtic tang tmdng myc tidu 6%, Trang Qudc ed the se phdi dua cac gdi kich thieh kinh td ttong ngdn han, bat chap vide se lam tram ttgng thdm cac nil ro kinh td dai han, nhat la ng edng vd tidn ttinh tai eg edu kinh td Dai didn Quy Tien td qudc td (IMF) tai Tmng Qudc nhdn dinh Chinh phu Trang Qudc dang trien khai manh me chinh sach tai khda, tap trung hd trg cac hd gia dinh vd doanh nghiep nhd bi dnh huting nghidm ttpng nhat dai dich, ddng thdi ndi long tidn td thdng qua bidn phap bam tidn vao thi tmcmg, giam Idi suit vd tao ngudn tin dung cho cdc doanh nghiep chiu sire dp Idn^ ' China Dally (2020), "llvlF official says China's policy to support most affected amid COVID-19 a key le.:o " https://gIobal.chinadaily.com.en/a/202003/23/WS5e7ftfic ' 6a31012S21728149a.html NGHIEN CflU O O H Q B A C fl s ( ) ^ ^ Nghien cim khoa hoc Bieu do: Chi so san xuat cong nghijp va ban le tai Trung Qu '0 5 10 -15 Oil s6 sjn xuSt cdns tighl^p 20 a,li6bt,n\l; 25 T9/2019 TlO/201 Tll/201 T12/201 T1-2/202O Nguon: IMF Tgi Nhdt Bdn, chinh quydn Nhdt Ban da tinh trgng nghidm ttgng, bj suy giam rdt ldn cd gdng dd can bdng gitra vide chdng djch viras corona", 7/11 linh vyc vdi cdc hgn chd vd di lai vd phong tda Tuy kinh td dugc ddnh gid bi quan trade' Bp nhidn, tinh djch dich Covid-19 ldm trdm ttudng Yasutoshi Nishimura nhgn djnh "xu ttpng han nhiing khd khan kinh td da ed hudng phue hdi nhe da rd rang bj dao nguge Ngay 9/3/2020, Chinh phu Nhat Ban didu vd ndn kinh td budc vdo giai doan suy gidm chinh sd lieu tang trudng GDP quy IV/2019 tang tmdng"; ddng thdi chua rd lidu tdc xudng mirc tdng trudng am 7,1% Ngay ddng ciia dich Covid-19 chi Id tam thdi vd 24/3/2020, Thd tudng Nhat Ban Shinzo Abe ndo tinh hinh sd thay ddi Quy md vd tuydn bd hoan Thd van hdi Olympic mtia he miic dp tac ddng cua dich Covid-19 tdi kinh Tokyo 2020 Sy kidn cd thd se lam tinh td Nhdt Ban hidn da tuong ducmg vdi mirc hinh kinh td Nhat Ban trd ndn khd khan hon tdc ddng cua ddng dat vd sdng than ndm Khao sat ciia Trung tam nghidn ciru kinh td 2011 cung nhu khdng hoang tai chinh 2008 Nhgt Ban dy bao kinh td Nhat Ban nam 2020 Nhieu kha ndng kinh td Nhat Bdn se di vao se tdng tradng am 2,9% Vao thang 2/2020, suy thoai vdi hai quy lidn tidp tdng tmdng Chinh phu Nhat Ban vdn nhan djnh ndn kinh am EIU dy bao kinh td Nhdt Bdn tdng td "phue hdi d tdc dp vira phai" Tuy nhidn, trudng am 1,5% nam 2020' Dt thuc ttong bao cdo thang 3/2020 cua Ndi cae day kinh td tang trudng, Chinh phu Nhdt Bdn Nhat Ban, lan dau tidn ndm qua, tir "phuc hdi" khdng duge sii dung dd md ta tinh hinh kinh td Nhat Ban va Ian ddu tien ' Japan Times (2020), "Japan's economy in 'severe situation' due to C V l D - i , government states in monthly ttong nam qua bao eao dua nhan djnh report" https://www,japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/03/27/ rat tidu cue vd tidu dting ea nhan Bao cao business/economy-business/economy-coronavirus-impact/ nhdn manh "kinh td Nhat Ban dang ttong " EIU (2020) "COVID-19 to send almosl all G20 countries into a recession", hrtps://www.eiu.com/n/covid19-to-send-almost-all-g20-counlries-into-a-recession/ NGHIEN Cdra DONG B^C fl sd ( ) 4-2020 29 .yg/jit^ kinh lc Trong ihang I va ihang 2020 san Iu giam iheo Nomura Holding d^r bao su\ giam -2.5"0 Bloomberg d^r bao -3°o Standard Chartered d\r bao -I.5''ii ngan hang AN/ d^r hao -2%' Day la lan dau tien kinh ic Tmng Quoc co mgt quy tang tmcmg am lc tir nam 1992 Trong thang 2020 Iir(;mg bin to t^i Tmng Quoc giam 80°o*, \ual khau thang \a thang 2020 giam 17,2%^ Kinh tc Tmng Quoc nam 2020 co kha ning chi tang truong khoang 5.4''o* Mot so danh gta nhu cua EIU co nh^n dinh kha lieu c^c theo d\r bao tang truong GDP cua Tmng Quoc nam 2020 chi d^t 1%' Trong tinh Ho Bac va cac khu \vc lan c ^ bj anh huong n$ng ne nhat Tinh Ho Bac co vj tri quan trpng Vanh dai kinh te song Ducmg Tu va Vanh dai kinh ic ducmg sat Bac Kinh Quang Chau Do Ho Bac co \ai tro quan irpng la imng tam tmng chuyen giao thong Trung Ion nhai khu vyc mi^n Tning cua :hu cong nghi?p ion^^^> "^ Quoc men quan trpng d6iva, chien iuj^^^^^.^^^^ mien Trung Ben canh linh ^"cJ ^^ ^ ^ ^ SM giam cac nganh dich i ^ ciia Trung Quoc cung rat kho de D F dich b?nhkC-t hue V, du.su at mat domih thu phong ^c dip Te am llch ch d?' 3;^ irieu USD nam 2020 so vm I.M> USD nam 2019, la khong dia bu dap Hofman, c ^ Naan hang The g.a ta Giam doc quoc gi Trx.ng Qu6c nhan djnh dich vu va tieu dung hiv-n dong gop hon 50% vao GDP cua Trung Qu6c Trudng nhom chuyen g.a kmh te tai Tap doan JinDong Thin Kien Quang, cho rang s\r hi dap d6i MJi mpt so doanh ngh.ep ban le va dich vu tieu dimg la hiu nhir bat kha thi Vi du se khong thi l|p lai nhOng di;rt tieu diing nhu dip nam mai doi vai nganh du Ijch Bi ho n-i? njn kinh te, Trung Quoc da cong b6 cat giam thue va cac khoan dau tu mcri quy mo khoang 6% GDP de thuc diy tang trudng Tuy nhien, de dat miirc tang mrdng nuc tieu 6%, Trung Quoc co thi se phai dua cac goi kich thich kinh te ngan han, bat chap viec se lam tram trgng them cac nii ro kinh te dai han, nhat la ng cong va tien trinh tai ca cau kinh te Dai dien Quy Tien te qu6c li (IMF) tai Trung Qu6c nhan dinh Chinh phu Trung Quoc dang trien khai manh me chinh sach tai khoa, tap trung ho tro cac ho gia dinh va doanh nghiep nho bi anh huong nghiem trpng nhat dai dich, dong thai nai long tien te thong qua bien phap bam tiSn vao thi tnrcmg, giam lai suat va tao nguon tin dung cho cac doanh nghiep chiu sue ep lcm* ' Manuel Baigorri (2020) X h i n a Economy Seen in Deeper Conlraction on Factory Drop", Bloombfr\; https: ' w\\w.bloombcrg.com.'ncMi'anicles'2020-03-OI chinaeconomy-sccn-headed-for- mo 230 > USD uone Han Qudc cung ma rpng Nga> 24'3.2020 Thii tudng Shinzo Abe cho cho Ml) dac biet vdi sd Min len ton 4.1 ty biet Dang Dan chu T\r dang can nhac gdi 'THeluyam^dihpinhapvaliSnkit bdsung 139 > I SD _ x Tgi Hdn Qudc, linh hinh b?nh djch lay lan kinh te khu vuc Vdi muc dp hpi nhap cao S'"^'^ff "^" nhanh da lao rui ro lam dul ga> cac chudi kinh c Ddng A nhu Tmng Qudc, Nhat Ban, san xuat va cung img tren dat nude Trudc d?i djch kinh ti Han Qudc da gap mdt so Han Qudc MI ASEAN vdi cung nhu khd khan dira vao xuil khau uong sire vdi die nan kinh ta Idn khac ket hap va cau the gidi ; cu sv suy giam tSng mrdng tinh hinh dich benh lan rpng d khu vuc va theo chu k> ciia kinh Trung Qudc cDng toan ciu da tac dpng tdi su phat men bnh te nhu ciic khd khan thuong mai vdi Nhat khu vuc Ddng A tren nhiiu phuong dien Thir nhdt, su suy giam cua kinh te Trung Ban Cac khu \'vc lay nhiem manh tai Han Qudc nhu Daegu nim irong vanh dai san Qudc trung tam tang trudng quan trpng ciia xuit quan Upng chi^m 20° o cdng xuat san khu vuc va the gidi kdt hop vdi cac bien phap phong tda, han chg di lai dang tac dpng xuit cac phin d td ciia Han Qudc EIU dv bao kinh ti Han Qudc tang Uudng lieu cue, lam ngung tre cac chudi cung ung Sm 1.8%" uiu djch benh ti^p tuc lan sang va san xuit d khu vuc Vd thuang mai, theo Khu v(rc cdng nghiep duven hai ddng nam sd lieu eia Stratfor, xuat khau ciia Nhat Ban vdi cac phd nhu Busan, Ulsan va mdt vao Trung Qudc chiSm 20% tdng kim ngach phin tinh Gyeongsang thi anh hudng ddi vdi xuit khiu cua Nhat Ban, cua Han Qudc la nganh san xuat d td ciia Han Qudc se rat ldn, 27%, cua Viet Nam la 17%, ciia Lao la 35%, n^u de Ian den Seoul thi se anh hudng tdi cua Myanmar la 33%, cua Thai Lan la 12%, nhieu nganh kinh te va mpt lupng ldn lao cua Malaysia la 14%, ciia Singapore la 13%, dpng Dau nam 2020, kinh te Han Qudc cua Indonesia la 15%, cua Philippines la dupc d\r bao tang trudng d mirc 2,3%, 13% Dp md cua cac nen kinh te trudc Trung nhien dich Covid-19 xay ra, ngan hang Qudc cang cao thi mirc dp bi anh hudng trung ucmg Han Qudc da giam du bao xudng cang ldn Nhieu nen kinh te d khu vuc cd sir cdn 2,1% Khu vuc doanh nghiep vira va nhd lien ket chat che mang ludi chudi cung se chju lac dpng nghiem trpng nhat De img img khu vuc va toan cau, dd Trung phd \ di tinh hinh na\ Chinh phd Han Qudc Qudc la mdt "mdi lien ket" quan da chi tieu 3.3 t> I'SD va tuyen bd ke hoach McKinsey danh gia cae ITnh vuc bi anh 16 i> USD chi tieu khan cap de hd tro cac hudng nghiem trpng nhat bao gdm nganh hang khdng, du Uch, bao hiem, diu san xuat d td, quan ao, hang thoi trang " SlrMfiir t:020) "In South Korea, Covid-19 Burdens an alread) Strained econom;" '- ElO (2020) - C O V I ' D - to send almost all G20 countries into a recession" httpsi/'wwA^.eiu.com'n/covidI9-to-send-almost-al g20 ban ASEAN, gSn kk cao vdi kinh te Trung Quoc, Chau Au dv bio kinh le EU nSm 2020 se Nhat Ban va Han Qudc ciing gap nhieu kho tang trudng d mirc am 2.5" o EIU d\r bao khan Covid-19 Nam 2020, kinh ik kinh te Phap tang tnrcmg am 5**o kinh te Singapore du kien tang tmdng d miic khiem Italy am 7%, kinh te Anh am 2%" Chi s6 tdn 0,6%^^ kinh ik Thai Lan d muc 0,2%^^ ZEW Economic Sentiment*^ cua Due kinh te Malaysia d muc 3,7%^", kinh ik thdng 32020 da giam 58 diem, miic giam Philippines d muc 5,4%^^ ldn nhat 30 nSm trd l^i day"' Chu tjch Ngan himg Trung ucmg Chau Au cho bi^t mpt thang phong toa nen kinh t^ EU d^ Chamel News Asia (2020), "Singapore's 2020 growth chong Covid-19 se khien tang truong khu forecast lowered to 0.6%: MAS survey", \V^-" dong euro giam diem phan trSm, va ba haps://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/econo thang phong toa lien tiep se lam giam diim my-gdp-forecas(-mas-survey-covid-l 9-12525384 " EIU (2020) -COVID-19 to send almost all G20 countries into a recession", httpsy^ww eiu-comricoMd19-to-send-alniost-aII-g20-counmes-inio-3-rtcession, ^ Chi s6 tAng hop phan inh cac nhan d|nh \-a dinh gta cua khoing 350 nha kinh li \k tnen ^png cua kinh ik Due tnmg hfn " Zew (2020), "Economic Outlook Slumps", htlps:/ v,-v.-v, rew.de'en^rsse'prcssearchi V /konj unki urausblick-bricht- Bangkok Post (2020), "Thai economic outlook among Asia's weakest", https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/ 1879935/thai-economic-outlook-among-asias-weakest '* Ntir Hanani Azman (2020), "Malaysia's 2020 GDP growth to sink to 3.7% amid Covid-19", https://themalay sianreserve.com/2020/03/13/malaysias-2020-gdp-growthto-sink-to-3-7-amid-covid-19/ iulito G Rada (2020), "Moody's reduces 2020 PH growth forecast to 5.4%", https://www.maniiasiandard nel/business/economy-trade/319872/moody-s-reduces2020-ph-gro wth-forecast-to-5-4-.htnil HQHIEtl CtJfU O H Q Bile A, s ^(Z20) V202O Nghien ciru khoa hoc Bang 3; Cac doi tac thirong mai liang 6ku cua Trung Qu6c, Nhat Ban va Han Quoc nam 2019 Trung Quoc My: 418,6 ty USD (chiem 16,8% tong kim ng^ch xu5t khau) Hong Cong: 279,6 ty USD (11,2%) 3.NhiitBta: 143,2 ty USD (5,7%) Han Quoc: 111 ty USD (4,4%) Vi?t Nam: 98 ly USD (3,9%) Due: 79,7 ty USD (3,2%) An Dp: 74,9 ty USD (3%) Ha Lan: 73,9 ty USD (3%) Anh: 62,3 ly USD (2,5%) 10 Dii Loan: 55,1 IJ USD (2,2%) 11 Singapore: 55 ty USD (2,2%) 12 Malaysia: 52,5 ty USD (2,1%) 13 Nga: 49,5 ty USD (2%) 14 Australia: 48,1 ty USD (1,9%) 15 Mexico: 46,4 ty USD (1,9%) Nhat Ban l.My: 140,4t> USD(19,9%) Tning Quoc: 134,7 ty USD (19,1%) Han Quoc: 46,3 ty USD (6,6%) Dai Loan: 43 t> USD (6,1%) H6ng Cong: 33,6 ty USD (4,8%) Thai Lan: 30,2 ty USD (4,3%) Due: 20,2 ty USD (2,9%) Singapore: 20,2 ty USD (2,9%) Viet Nam: 16,5 ty USD (2,3%) 10 Australia: 14,5 ty USD (2,1%) 11 Indonesia: 14 ty USD (2%) 12 Anh: 14 ty USD (2%) 13 Malaysia: 13,3 ty USD (1,9%) 14 Ha Lan: 11,9 ty USD (1,7%) 15 An Dp: 11 ty USD (1,6%) H&D Quoc Trung Quoe: 136,2 ty USD (25,1%) : My: 73,6 ty USD (13,6%) Viet Nam: 48,2 ty USD (8,9%) H6ng Cong: 31,9 ty USD (5,9%) S Nhiit Ban: 28,4 ty USD (5,2%) Dai Loan: 15,7 ty USD (2,9%) An Dp: 15,1 ty USD (2,8%) S.Singapore: 12,8 ty USD (2,4%) Mexico: 10,9 ty USD (2%) 10 Malaysia: 8,8 ty USD (1,6%) ll.DLrc:8,7tyUSD(l,6%) 12 Philippines: 8,4 ty USD (1,5%) 13 Australia: 7,9 ty USD (1,5%) 14 Thai Lan: 7,8 ty USD'(1,4%) 15 Nga: 7,78 ty USD (1,4%) Nguon: Worldtoexxports.com quan vao su phuc hoi cua siic cau the d g6c dO dJu tu, sir suy giam cac dong diu tu loan cha cung tac dong tai cac nen kinh tS Bong B5c A cac nen kinh te vira la d6i tac thu hiit diu tu, vira la doi tac diu tu ben ngoai Ion cila khu vuc va the gioi Lien Hiep Qu6c du bao cac dong dau tu thuong mai toan cau co the giam tit 5% d^n 15% nSm 2020, xu6ng miic thip nhit ki tir khung hoang tai chinh toan caii 2008-2009" Do do, su phuc h6i cua kinh tS khu vuc Dong Bic A se phu thuoc mot plian mang luai hpi nhap tai Chau A, voi " UNCTAD (2020), "Coronavirus could shrink global FDI by 5% to 15%", https://unctad.org/en/pages/ newsdeta!ls.aspx?OriginalVersionID=2299 ^^ ADB (2020), "FTA by Status, Asia Regional Integration Center", https://aric.adb.org/fta-U'ends-bystatus NSHIEN e d u 0 te ddi vdi ca ngudi va hang hda Trudc ngu> CO nay, Hpi nghj Bp trudng Kinh te ASEAN 11/3/2020, da tuyen bd chung nhan manh cac bien phap ngan ehan benh djch can dua tren eac can nhac ve sire khde cdng ddng va khdng nen lao cac hgn ehe khdng can thiet ddi vdi thuang mai khu vuc Ham y chinh sach doi vdi Viet Nam Tinh bat djnh bat uic ddi vdi kinh le khu vuc Ddng A se phu thupc ldn vao linh hinh diln bien djch Covid-19 Trudng nhdm ehuyen gia Bloomberg Chang Shu cho rang cac nhan td nhu su suy giam tai Trung Qudc, su diit gay cac chudi cung irng va he luy ciia djch Covid-19 Iren toan cau khien viee du bao ehinh xac la rat khd khan" Cac du bao " Manuel Baigorri (2020) "China Economy Seen in Deeper Connaction on Factory Drop", ^ bioomberg.conr'new s 'anicles^020-03https '" 34 cihiKi'""':^^ kmh ll cho tdi nav hiu hit diu dua iren gi djnh cho ring Covid-19 sc giam hoSc bien mil miia he tdi tuang lu nhu di_ch cum miia Tuy nhien niu tinh hinh dien bien khac cac kjch ban kinh ll ^c Ihay ddi va tinh hinh cd thi khd khan han cho kinh te khu vuc Ben eanh dd lin diu tien Irong 100 nam qua cd mdt dgi djch x:i> tren loan cau Niu dich Covid-19 lan manh sang khu vuc Nam A My Latinh va Chau Phi Ihi riii ro ddi xdi kinh ll Ihl gidi rit ldn he thdng y te cua cac nude > lu han cae khu vuc khac Ben canh tac ddng true tiip tir benh djch ddi vdi nganh y ll, tac ddng lir eac bien phap phong tda, hgn chl di Iai giao thuong tdi nin kinh tl mdi Ihuc su nghidm trpng va de lai cac he luy lau dai Trong bdi canh djch Covid-19 lay Ian tgi Viet Nam, Chinh phu Viet Nam da coi chdng djch la uu tien hang diu giai doan hien nay, quyel liet trien khai nhieu bien phap hieu qua, huy ddng ngudn lire ling phd vdi djch Ngay 21/3/2020, thay mat Bp Chinh tri, Uy vien Bp Chinh trj, Thucmg true Ban Bi thu Tran Qudc Vugng da ky ban hanh Thdng bao ket luan cua Bd Chinh trj ve cdng tac phdng, chdng djch benh Covid-19 Ngay 27/3/2020, Thu tudng Chinh phu Nguyin Xuan Phiic da ky Chi thj sd 15/CTTTg yeu cau quyel liet thuc hien dpt cao diem phdng, chdng djch COVID-19 Nha bao David Flutts nhan djnh Viet Nam da cd nhirng quyet sach nhanh chdng, hieu qua va minh bach dl kiim chl djch COVID-19 Giao su Carl Thayer, thudc Dai hpc New South Wales, nhin manh lanh dao Viet Nam Ol/china-economy-seen-headed-for-deeper-contractionon-factory-drop NGHIEN Cfla P N Q BflC fl, $ ( ) 4-2020 Nghien cim khoa hqc da ehu dpng hanh dpng Trudng dai dien WHO tai Viet Nam, dng Kidong Park, danh gia cao "su chii dpng giai quyit va kien djnh Uong suot qua trinh img phd vdi djch benh" ciia Chinh phii Viet Nam^° Ben canh tac ddng cua tinh hinh dich benh nude, cac diln biln ciia djch Covid-19 tdi cac nen kinh te ldn tren thi gidi, dd cd cae nen kinh tl Ddng Bic A se tac ddng tdi mdi trudng phat triin ciia Viet Nam thdi gian tdi Tai cudc hpp Thucmg true chinh phii 27/3/2020, bao cao ciia Bd Ke hoach va Dau tu neu Viet Nam ciing Iiic chju tae dpng "kep" ca tir phia cung va cau, tae ddng den tat ea cac thj trudng dau va thj trucmg dau vao chu lire, ca san xuat va tieu dimg Ciing lue Viet Nam ddi mat vdi khd khan ca vd tu lieu san xuat va thi trucmg xuat khau, tieu thu hang hda, nhat la hang di?n tii, dien thoai, may mac, da giay ' Trung Qudc hien la ddi tac thuong mgi ldn nhat, thj trudng nhap khiu ldn nhat va thj trudng xuat khiu ldn thir cua Viet Nam Nligt Ban la ddi tac kinh te quan Irpng hang diu ciia Viet Nam va la mrde tai trp ODA ldn nhit, nha diu tu sd hai (tinh theo sd lOy kl), ddi tac thuang mai Idn thir tu cua Viet Nam Han Qudc la nha diu tu nude ngoai Idn nhit tgi Viet Nam Viet Nam la mdt hai nude ASEAN cd FTA song phucmg vdi Han Qudc (cimg Singapore), kim nggeh thucmg mgi song phucmg chiem 50% tdng kim nggeh giira Han Qudc va ASEAN Bdi canh tinh hinh dien bien djch Covid-19 va tac ddng tdi cae nen kinh te Ddng Bac -\ hien dat mpt sd ham y chinh sach tir gdc dp ddi ngoai ddi vdi Viet Nam nhu sau: Thir nhdl tinh hinh dien bien va tac dpng ciia djch Covid-19 rai khd ludng, do can day mgnh cdng tac nghien ciru, tham mim, du bao kjp thdi eho Chinh phii ve tinh hinh cua cac nen kinh le ldn, eae ddi tac quan Upng eiia Viet Nam, dd ed cac nen kinh te Ddng Bic A, cung nhu cSc bien phap kinh te img phd ciia cae nude va kha nang tac ddng Idi nhimg nganh, ITnh vuc eu the ciia Viet Nam Ben canh do, eae khudn khd quan he da dupc xac lap la nen tang quan trpng de Viet Nam hop tac vdi cac nin kinh te, eae ddi tae ldn de giai quyet cac van de kinh le phat sinh djch Covid-19 quan he song phuorng Thit hai, tich cue tham gia va ddng gdp vdi tinh than la vien cd trach nhiem cua edng ddng qudc te tai cac ca che, dien dan da phuang khu vuc va the gidi img phd vdi djch Covid-19 Vdi tu each la Chu tjch ASEAN 2020, Viet Nam cd thi phat huy cac ca che hpp lac ve y te khudn khd ASEAN ciing nhu ASEAN + 3, tiip tuc thuc day cae sang kien ciia Viet Nam nhu '° "Truyen diong qudc ta ddnh gid cao Viet Nam n-ong sang kien lap Nhdm edng tae chung ph6ng ehing dich COVID-19", Website Ddng Cong sdn, cap Bp trudng vdi sir tham gia cua cac co hltp://dangeongsan.vn/the-gioi/the-gioi-noi-ve-vietnam/truyen-thong-quoc-te-danh-gia-cao-viet-nam-trongquan ve van tai, xuat nhap canh, kiem soat phong-chong-dich-covid-19-551097.html '' Bdo Chlnh phi (2020), "Thii tudng: Chung ta ban nhiSu bien gicri, lanhsu thii nhung cuoi cimg van la doi sdng nhan dan" http://baochinhphu.vn/rhoi-su/Thu-tuong-Chung-ta-bannhieu-thu-nhung-cuoi-cung-van-la-doi-song-nhandan/391170.vgp NGHIEN cda DONG BflC fl, sd 4(230) 4-2020 Thii ba, thuc hien hieu qua va tranh thu tdi da cac Hiep djnh tu thucmg mai the he 35 rs'gnien cuu ^ ; mcri nhu Hiep djnh Doi tac Toan dien va TiSn bp xusen Thai Binh Duong (CPTPP) Hi?p dinh tu thuong mai Viet Nam - EU (EVPTA), de da dang hoa thi truong giam thieu cac tac dong tir su gian doan cac chuSi cung img toan ciu va khu \-uc, h6 trg doanh nghiep thj tnrong dau va diu vao./ TAI LIEl THAM KHAO ADB (2020), "Djch covid-19 co tac dgng ddng ke \k kinh t^ d6i vcri Chau A dang phat trien", https :/A\vv\v.adb.org/vi/ne\vs/covid-19out break-ha ve-signi ficant-econo mi c-i mpactdeveloping-asia Bdo Chinh phu (2020), "Thu tucmg: Chiing ta ban nhieu thu- nhung cuoi cimg vin la ddi song nhan dan", http://baochinhphu.vn/Thoisu/Thu-tuong-Chung-ta-ban-nhieu-thu-nhungcuoi-cung-van-la-doi-song-nhandan/391170.vgp Trang true luyen Dang Cong sdn (2020), "Truyen thong quoc te danh gia cao Viet Nam phong chdng dich COVID-19", http://dangcongsan.vn/the-gioi/the-gioi-noi-veviet-nam/truyen-thong-quoc-te-danh-gia-caoviet-nam-trong-phong-chong-dich-covid-1955I097.html ADB (2020), "FTA by Status, Asia Regional Integration Center", https://aric.adb.org/fta-trends-by-status Anne Oeking (2020), "Coronavirus' economic impact in East and Southeast Asia", East Asia Forum, https ://\vw\v castas iaforum org/2020/03/04/coronavirus-econo mic-impactin-east-and-southeast-asia/ 36 B'angkok Post (2020), "Thai economic outlook among Asia's \\c;ikest \\v\-\v.bangkokpost.com''business/1879y-'-' economic-outlook-among-asias-weakest Bloomberg Sews "China Car Sales Drop Record 80% as Virus Empties Shov\Tooms", https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/202003-04/china-car-sales-drop-a-record-80-as-virusadds-to-industry-woes Channel News Asia (2020), "Singapore's 2020 growth forecast lowered to 0.6%: MAS https ://\K-ww.channelnewsasia.coni/ sun ey"\ news/singapore/economy-gdp-forecast-massurvey-covid-19-12525384 China Daily (2020), "INff official says China's policy to support most affected amid COVID-19 a key lesson", https://global.china daily.com.en/a/202003/23/WS5e7865c6a310128 21728149a.html 10 EIU (2020), "COVID-19 to send almost all G20 countries into a recession", https;//www.eiu.com/n/covid-19-to-send-mostall-g20-countries-into-a-recession/ 11 Finbarr Bermingham (2020), "Coronavirus: China's exports and imports plummet in January and February", South China Morning Post, https://wTvw.scmp.com/economy/ china-economy/article/3074060/coronaviruschinas-exports-and-imports-plummeted-januaryand 12 Greg Robb (2020), "Empire State manufacturing index plunged a record 34 points in March", https ://www.p!antservices com/industrynews/2020/empire-state-manufac turing-index-plunged-a-record-34-4-points-inmarch/ 13 Japan Times (2020), "Japan's economy 5n 'severe situation' due to COVlD-io NGHIEN edu PdNG BfiC ^ s6 4(230) ^2020 Nghien cihi khoa hgc government states in monthl\ report", https ://www.j apantimes.co.jp/news/2020/03/27/ business/economy-business/economycoronavirus-impact/ 14 Julito G Rada (2020), "Moody's reduces 2020 PH growth forecast to 5.4%", https://\\^"w manilastandard.net/business/economytrade/319872/moody-s-reduces-2a20-ph-growthforecast-to-5 -4- html 15 Manuel Baigorri (2020), "China Economy Seen in Deeper Contraction on Factory Drop", Bloomberg, https://www Bloomberg.com/news/articies/2020-03Ol/china-economy-seen-headed-for-deepercontraction-on-factory-drop 16 Manuel Baigorri (2020), "China Economy Seen in Deeper Contraction on Factory Drop", Bloomberg hrtps://www bloom berg.coni/news/articles/2020-03-01/chinaeconomy-seen-headed-for-deeper-contractionon-factory-drop 17 Michael Monderer (2020), "Reassessing the Global Economic Fallout From COVID-19", https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/reassessin g-global-economic-fallout-co vid-19coronavirus-pandemic-economy https'' unctad.org/en/pages/newsdetails.aspx70ri ginalVersionID=2299 21 LfNCTAD (2020), "Global trade impact of the coronavirus (Covid-19) epidemic", https://unctad.org/en/PublicationsLibrar>/ditcinf 2020dl.pdf 22 WEF (2020), "The IMF explains the economic lessons from China's fight against coronavirus" hnps://\\'\Nvv.weforum.org/agenda/ 2020/03/imf-economic-lessons-from-chinafight-against-coronav i rus/ 23 Worldometter (2020), "Covid-19 Coronavirus Pandemic", https ://www.worldo meters, info/coronavirus/ 24 Zew (2020), "Economic Outlook Slumps", https://www.zew.de/en/presse/presse archiv/konjunkturausblick-bricht-ein/ 18 Nur Hanani Azman (2020), "Malaysia's 2020 GDP growth to sink to 3.7% amid Covid19", https://themaIaysianreserve.com/2020/03/ I3/malaysias-2020-gdp-growth-to-sink-to-3-7amid-covid-19/ 19 Tomasz Brodzicki (2020), F'mpact of COVID-19 on the Chinese and global economy", https://ihsmarkit.com/research-analysis/impactof-covid 19-on-the-chinese-and-globaleconomy.html 20 UNCTAD (2020), "Coronavirus could shrink global FDI by 5% to 15%", NGHIEN C(jru DdNG B^C fl, Sd 4(230) 4-2020 37 ... danh gia cao Viet Nam phong chdng dich COVID- 19" , http://dangcongsan.vn/the-gioi/the-gioi-noi-veviet -nam/ truyen-thong-quoc-te-danh-gia-caoviet -nam- trong-phong-chong -dich- covid- 195 5I097.html ADB... kk cao vdi kinh te Trung Quoc, Chau Au dv bio kinh le EU nSm 2020 se Nhat Ban va Han Qudc ciing gap nhieu kho tang trudng d mirc am 2.5" o EIU d\r bao khan Covid- 19 Nam 2020, kinh ik kinh te Phap... khan hon cho kinh te khu vuc Ben cgnh lin dau tien 100 nam qua CO mp dai dich xajra tren toan cau Niu djch Covid- 19 lan manh sang kltu vtrc Nam A My Lalinh vaChauPhithiru.ro dot voi kinh 16 Ihl